Baseball

We Can Plant A House, Or We Can Build A Tree – No, Screw You AJ, We’ll Take Zack Wheeler

By Sam Fels 1315 0

Earlier today, our comrade and Sox correspondent AJ wrote up why and how the Pale Hose should be interested in Zack Wheeler to boost the Sox rotation that needs it. But here’s the thing: no one cares about the White Sox, and really everyone’s energy should be put into putting the Cubs back among the elite of MLB (THE! ELITE! THE THE ELITE!). And I don’t mean just us here. I mean everyone in the world. Do you really want to live through another season of the Cardinals boasting about their geniusness when they were essentially a mediocre team that had everything fall into its lap? Of course you don’t. No one wants that. And the only person who minds the Twins winning the AL Central again is Fifth Feather, and he’s a miserable little man living in his hovel and laughing at all of you constantly. He doesn’t like you, never will, so why should you do anything for him? Exactly.

So let’s get Wheeler to the Northside instead.

Why A Spoon, Sire?: AJ laid it out, but basically Wheeler is the youngest available and realistic starting pitcher on the market. Stephen Strasburg is not walking through that door (and the Cubs might and probably should be gunshy about signing any pitcher out of a World Series team who has gone longer on innings than ever before, given how their Brandon Morrow and first year of Darvish experiences worked out). Gerrit Cole is not walking through that door. I’d love it if one of them did, but it’s not going to happen. Funny how Cubs and Sox fans are dealing with the same thing in that sense, no?

That doesn’t mean Wheeler is exactly young, as he’ll turn 30 in May of next season. But the rest of the Cubs rotation is old, as so will Kyle Hendricks and Lester, Q, and Darvish are over 30. Adbert Alzolay won’t be ready for the rotation this year, if ever, and the Cubs just have to get younger there.

While Wheeler doesn’t have the strikeout numbers of some, he’s been pretty solid in that category. And while the injuries are a worry, more encouragingly is that Wheeler’s stuff seems to be getting better the farther he’s gotten away from his TJ surgery. Look at his four-seam velocity:

Or the vertical drop on his curve:

Or the sweep of his slider:

So that’s all very encouraging. If you want to go by spin-rate, both his curve and slider have picked up spin-rate from 2018 to this past one. So while he did miss two and a half seasons thanks to injury, that’s also wear and tear he hasn’t piled up. So the fear of his stuff drying up in his early 30s isn’t as high as it might be, and he appears to be on the upswing you might have expected at ages 26-28, had he a clean bill of health.

Ein minuten bitte, vous einen kleinen problemo avec de religione (he was from everywhere): As AJ said, the injury worries are still there. But he made 29 starts in 2018 and 31 this year, and really just being around 30 is basically what you expect of any starters but the top echelon these days. With the presence of Chatwood and hopefully Azolay in the pen and both being stretched out enough to go multiple innings now, the Cubs can absorb a pitcher or two that don’t make the post 33-35 times per year. And Alec Mills and Colin Rea are lying around as well.

There’s another slight worry, and that’s his ERA-. That’s league-adjusted, and it didn’t love Wheeler last year, giving him only a 98 where 100 is average. It was much more kind to him in ’18 with an 87. The reason probably is that Wheeler gave up a lot more hits in 2019, 46 more in just 13 more innings. Some of that is pure luck, as Wheeler’s BABIP rose to .311 from .279. But the latter number is more the outlier as Wheeler has a career BABIP of .300 on the nose. Wheeler’s hard-contact rate against and his exti velocity both saw a tick up this year. But as we keep saying, whose didn’t? Among starting pitchers, Wheeler was in the top-10 in average exit-velocity against. And as I’ve pointed out, the stuff seems to be getting better.

Little Silver? Little Gold?: MLBTR has Wheeler getting $20M for five years from the Phillies, because the Arrieta signing has gone so well, Nick Pivetta turned into Grover, Aaron Nola really struggled in the season’s last month. You don’t think of Wheeler as a $20M pitcher, but given his last two years that’s probably what he is. If you go by the last two years cumulative, he’s got the same WAR as Patrick Corbin had. He’s the same age as Nathan Eovaldi was last year, with some of the same injury concerns, and Eovaldi got $17M a year to sit on a trainer’s table in Boston.

MLBTR lists half the league as possible suitors, because again, why wouldn’t you want a plus pitcher on your team. That’s only going to drive his price up. But still, he’s going to get a salary a class below Strasburg and Cole. And the Cubs will have some $30M coming off the books when Lester’s and Quintana’s deals are up. Because of the bargain they’ll still be getting Hendricks at, they can splurge a bit in another spot.

And the Cubs could use another pitcher with really good stuff. That’s the kind of thing that matters in October, and this is still a team that should keep in mind how to negotiate 11 bonus wins after the 162.

Fetch. And AJ smells anyway. You don’t want to play in front of him, Zack.

 

Baseball

Burden In My Hand – White Sox Offseason Wishlist: Zack Wheeler

By Andy Jonathan 1503 0

The White Sox need another starter, perhaps even two. The immanent return of Michael Kopech should satisfy one of those needs, but successfully returning from Tommy John surgery is no sure thing. In addition to that, you can almost guarantee that his innings are going to have a cap on them, as the most he’s ever thrown in a season is the 140 he tossed before his elbow went “TWANG” in 2018.

So Kopech fills in for Ivan Nova, but that still leaves the Black Hole of Sadness that is the Sox 5th starter. Carlos Rodon won’t be back until August at the earliest, and he faces the same questions Kopech does. Reynaldo Lopez hasn’t cemented his spot in the rotation of The Future™ as of yet, either. Besides, you can never have too much starting pitching (or so I’m told).

So that brings us to the next person on the White Sox offseason shopping list. He’s a front line starter who comes with some risk attached but (other than Gerrit Cole) is the youngest available free agent starter on the market. I of course speak of Zack Wheeler.

Why Him?: First off like I said above, he’s the youngest starting pitcher available on the market this winter that the Sox would realistically (as much as I want Cole or Strasburg) pursue. He has that first round draft pick pedigree that Rick Hahn loves so much (though to be fair that’s a hangup of most GMs) and would immediately make the Sox starting rotation a thing to be feared.

He’s had an ERA of under 4.00 every year but 2017 (when he missed an extended period of time due to various maladies), has a 22.8% K rate, an 8.5% BB rate and has been a 4+ WAR player the last two seasons.

His fastball sits in the upper 90s with movement, and he has a nasty slider that he throws in the low 90s for his strikeout pitch. He also has a plus curveball and an average changeup that he doesn’t throw a whole lot in the zone. He also has a 44% ground ball ratio compared to a 32.5% fly ball that would play well at The Down Arrow.

Him lining up with Giolito, Kopech, Cease and Lopez gives you four starters that will rack up strikeouts at a hilarious pace, and would hopefully take some of the onus off the bullpen to have to eat up so many innings. Plus with him just entering his age 30 season, the threat of a downturn in velocity seems pretty low.

Why Not Him?: First and foremost, injuries. Wheeler has had issues staying healthy, as he’s never broken 200 innings in his career. In 2015 he had Tommy John surgery to repair a torn UCL which cost him all of the 2016 season. In 2017 he got tendinitis in his bicep which cost him some time on the IL, then after than he had a stress reaction in his right arm (a stress reaction is basically a broken bone that hasn’t totally broken. I had to google it.) which resulted in him being shut down in August. He also missed time this past season with a shoulder impingement.

In addition to the injury risk, he’s another righty which with Carlos Rodon out would make the current starting rotation entirely right handed. In and of itself this is not a terrible thing, as if the stuff is good then the results will be good. Still it’s not the worst thing in the world to be able to vary the handedness of your starters from time to time. Especially when the Indians and their bevy of left handed mashers is in your division.

He was also issued a qualifying offer from the Mets this last week, so any attempt to sign him after he turns it down results in the Sox sending a 2nd round draft pick to NY. Thus far, Rick Hahn has been loath to part with ANY of his draft picks…but the time for the Sox hoarding them is well past.

How Much Is This Free Resort Weekend?: FanGraphs has Wheeler looking at a four-year deal with about an $18 million AAV running at a grand total of just under $80 million total. This contract would blow past the $68 million the Sox gave Jose Abreu as the highest ever issued by the team (pathetic). Being that the Sox are most likely going to have to overpay due to the fact that the South Side isn’t currently the mecca for free agents the Northside is, I would think four years and $85 million might be enough to get Wheeler in a Sox jersey.

If the free agent market is slow enough, his injury history could potentially suppress that number even further. Either way, the $85 million would probably be the cap that Rick Hahn would set for himself, especially with all the other needs (DH, RF, 2B potentially) to be filled out in addition to starting pitching. I’m a big fan of Wheeler, and I think he’d fit in nicely here. It’s a bit of a stretch, as I see the Yankees becoming a problem if they miss out on Gerrit Cole and I don’t see Hahn outbidding them, like, ever. If the dominoes fall the right way however, Wheeler could be another pillar of an awesome pitching staff.

 

 

 

Baseball Everything Else

Burden In My Hand – White Sox Offseason Wishlist: Yasmani Grandal

By Andy Jonathan 1600 0

Now begins the season outside of the season, and potentially the most important one in the tenure of Rick Hahn’s career as general manager of the White Sox. With the team looking poised to possibly contend in 2020, Hahn must now shift gears. Trading away players like Chris Sale is easy. Everybody wants a Cy Young-caliber ace who strikes out 1.5 people per inning. Now Hahn has come full circle, as he was once the seller now he must be the buyer (Darth Vader quote goes here).

As with anything involving Jerry Reinsdorf and the Sox front office the first, last, and only question will be about money. Is he willing to spend it? The implication after the failed pursuit of Manny Machado was that THE MONEY WILL BE SPENT, most likely in ways that our mere fan-brains could not possibly understand. Now it’s time for them to live up to that bold declaration by rolling down the MLB equivalent of Rodeo Drive and making it rain.

What do the Sox really need? Well based on every metric that counts any type of offensive production, the Sox were the god awful-est at the DH position and any outfield spot where Eloy Jimenez is not currently standing, waving at his mom.

On top of that, other than Yoan Moncada and Zack Collins (who is an unfinished product in and of himself) the Sox are very light hitting from the left side of the plate. So who fits the bill?

Enter: Yasmani Grandal

Why Him?: Because he checks almost all the boxes above, and some that I didn’t even mention. Grandal is a switch hitting catcher who hit 17 dingers from the left side of the plate last year. He also tagged 11 of them from the right side, so it’s not a situation like Yoan has where all his pop comes from a single half of the plate. In addition to that, he’s an excellent pitch framer, 6th best overall in the league for any catcher who caught more than 1700 pitches. In the “Runs From Extra Strikes” category (which converts strikes to runs saved on a .125 run/strike basis, and includes park and pitcher adjustments according to Statcast) he’s the 3rd best in the league (the fact that Tyler Flowers has become one of the top framing catchers in the league will not be discussed here.) In addition, while he only had a DRS score of +1 last season, the previous 3 went +9, +17 and +13.

Despite James McCann‘s assistance with turning around the career of Lucas Giolito, he was dead last in framing last year which cost the White Sox 16 runs. Ask Reynaldo Lopez or Dylan Covey (if you can get through to him in his padded room where he mutters “sinker didn’t sink” to himself over and over) what they could’ve done with a few more strike calls going their way last season.

He also can play 1B and DH, which would result in a combo of Jose Abreu, Zack Collins and Grandal at DH at any point in the season which would instantly provide the best output at that position since before Adam Dunn shuffled off into the sunset. Yes, I am operating under the assumption that Jose will be back next season because duh. Did I mention he hits the shit out of the ball?

Why Not Him? Age maybe? He’s entering his 30th year on the planet this season, so by the time his deal is up he will most likely be 35ish? I dunno, this signing makes far too much sense for the Sox to pull it off. Can’t wait for the news media to interview Kenny Williams at spring training in his Mercedes golf cart and have him tell us all if he took off his solid gold Oakley sunglasses you’d see just how shocked he was. /wanking motion

How Much Is This Free Resort Weekend? Ahhh to the meat of the problem for the Sox: he’s not going to work for free. Last offseason he shot down an offer from the Mets (always a wise plan) for four years, $60 million and settled on a one year “prove it” deal with the Brewers. He then proceeded to mash almost 30 home runs with 80 RBI and was worth 5.2 WAR.

I would guess the bidding would start around $22 million for at least four years, and that’s the base. Grandal bet on himself last season and put up when some others thought he was crazy. The Sox had interest in him last year, and with a majority of the stuff they need contained in one human being Rick Hahn needs to find a way to get this done. Offer him four years, $90 million with a team option for a 5th at $25 million/or a $3 million buyout. I would think that would be enough to seal this deal, because I want to see what Giolito and Lopez can do with all those extra strikes Grandal can frame for them. Not to mention the two starting pitchers Hahn should sign this offseason (don’t worry, they’re next).

Baseball

We Could Plant A House, We Could Build A Tree – Cubs Offseason Wishlist: Hyun-Jin Ryu

By Sam Fels 1274 0

We know that the Cubs need an upgrade in the rotation. We know that they know this. We also know that they’re probably just going to fill it by promoting Tyler Chatwood to it while claiming poor as Tom Ricketts lights another cigar with a $100 before having a money fight with his brother. Or they’ll dive around a money tank like Scrooge McDuck. Whatever. That doesn’t mean we can’t hope or that it’s all a slow-play. Which I thought last winter and all I got was this stupid rock. Anyway, if you’re going to upgrade the rotation, a Cy finalist seems like a pretty good idea, no?

Why A Spoon, Sire?: Well this one’s as obvious as Thor was yesterday, and that’s because Ryu is really good. Unless a 2.32 ERA and 3.08 FIP aren’t your thing, in which case you’re just baseball stupid. It’s ok, a lot of people in this town are! Including some who run both baseball teams! Being stupid doesn’t preclude you from your dreams, this is America after all!

Anyway, Ryu actually saw a drop in his strikeouts this year, but also cut his walks to almost nothing, which meant he was still carrying damn near a 7-to-1 K/BB ratio, which plays just about anywhere. Ryu was also able to up his grounders to a rate not seen since his rookie year, which he did by upping the use of his change-up at the expense of a cutter. That change produced a 53% ground-ball rate. Ryu found a way to get more downward tilt on that change, which made it a real weapon. And change-ups are something you can keep going for a while.

Ryu’s sinker also produced an obscene amount of gopher-killers, but isn’t something he goes to as much. Still, it might be something he uses more of as he gets more into his 30s. Ryu never threw all that hard, but his four-seamer is barely above 90 now so he’s had to get a little more creative.

Ryu had a bit of luck last year, with only a .278 BABIP. But the Dodgers had an excellent defense simply everywhere, and he would enjoy at least the same level of infield play in Chicago. If he keeps his grounder-heavy ways, that should play out just about the same here.

Ein minuten bitte, vous einen kleinen problemo avec de religione (he was from everywhere): The first problem with committing to Ryu is health. He missed all of 2015 and 2016 aside from one start, and only made 15 starts last year. Even this year he only made the post 29 times, and he’s only cracked 30 starts once, which was his rookie year and now six seasons ago. If you have him in your rotation, you have to have backup plans. Which was fine for the Dodgers who had about eight or nine starters either on their roster or in the holster at AAA. The Cubs really only have Chatwood right now and maybe Alec Mills, and I would need a fair amount of Pepto if they had to rely on Mills for more than a spot start or two.

Second, Ryu is 32, so you’d have to conclude he’s probably been as good as he’s ever going to be and you’d be paying for the downside of his career. As a pitcher who doesn’t rely on strikeouts, you’d be a little more comfortable with him as he ages, but the margin for error with him is also that much smaller.

Third, coming off that season might delude a couple teams into paying more than they should, which we will get to directly…

Some Silver? Little Gold?: The other way this might break is that because of his injury history and his age, combined with the frugalness/analysis/collusion of teams in the free agent market these days, Ryu’s price-tag and years he gets might not be all that high. Remember, Dallas Keuchel had a Cy Young in his closet, some of the same profile as Ryu, and was younger and he waited until June to sign. The idea that any team is going to give Ryu much more than three years is probably a little far-fetched.

MLBTR has Ryu getting three years and $54M, and $17M-$18M for a #2 or maybe #3 starter is hardly the worst idea in the world (the Cubs will be paying a combined $30M for their #4 and #5 mind). If the Cubs would still be interested in Cole Hamels for one year at $12M give or take, would taking on the better, younger pitcher for an extra two years for another $5M or $6M really be so outlandish?

Could It Happen?: Unlikely. Ryu is probably going to have a lot of suitors that will drive the price and years north of where you’d want to go. But if the market slow-plays again, or outright just ignores pitchers over 30, then the Cubs could lurk here and get a pretty nice deal. Again, you wouldn’t want to go more than three years, but that is basically where the Cubs have the clock set anyway. With Lester and Q almost certainly phasing out after this year, you could slide Ryu down the rotation if you felt like you needed to and with only a two-year commitment left you’d have space for more. Especially if Alzolay by some miracle proves ready for the rotation in 2021.

Probably another dream, but not total fantasy.

 

Baseball

We Could Plant A House, We Could Build A Tree – Cubs Offseason Wishlist: Go**amn Thor

By Sam Fels 1682 0

Hello there. Over the next couple weeks, I’ll be cycling through some realistic, and not so realistic offseason targets for the Cubs, either via trade or free agency. Today, we start with the not s0 realistic. 

Now that the World Series is over, and as I’ve said already, I’m going to wake up every morning terrified that this is the day the Cubs do something truly stupid. Not that it’s ever been in the Theo DNA to reach for the truly outlandish, but it feels like the walls are closing in on the front office. There’s the pressure of its first truly disappointing season (again folks, they won 95 games in ’18 with half a Kris Bryant), the expectations of fans, and the demands of ownership both for a winner to fill the park and get eyeballs to Marquee while also squeezing the payroll. There seems to be a reckoning coming for the Cubs in two seasons when just about everyone who matters aside from Kyle Hendricks (and possibly Yu Darvish matters now?) are free agents and just how the Cubs will get out of that.

That’s a lot of pushing from opposing sides, which could leave an irrational pimple like me to pop. I’ve concluded that the Cubs will make a big trade, involving a name we all love, and that’s just how it’s going to be. My deepest fears are that it will be Kris Bryant, which I’ve already spent months outlining just how stupid that would be, and will spend many more weeks doing so even more.

But there’s going to be one. So my only hope is that it brings someone fun and good back. Which is why we’re kicking off with Noah Syndergaard.

Why could this happen? Because the he hates the Mets and they hate him. Any Met who ever bothers to point out that the Mets are run in a very Mets way generally ends up not-a-Met before too long. And Syndergaard nearly ended up not-a-Met-anymore at least year’s deadline. Also, Thor will be due his own windfall of cash in two seasons as well, and even though they’re a New York team the Mets seem to find a lot of ways to not pay people anymore. Call it PBSD (Post Bonilla Stress Disorder).

Now hey, maybe the hiring of Carlos Beltran signals a turn to rationality for the Mets. And maybe Blake Lively will leave Ryan Reynolds for me. This is the goddamn Mets we’re talking about. They’re always likely to do something stupid. In fact, they want to do something stupid.

Why A Spoon, Sire? Because it’s Thor! He’s 27, can throw a fastball through three live horses the long way if he wanted to, with a devastating slider and a very improved change-up. He’s got Cy stuff. And he’s under team control for two more years. So even if he’s projected to make $9.9M this year, considering what he can provide he’s the biggest bargain financially you’ll find. He’s been a four-WAR pitcher the past two seasons, with a FIP under four and a 2.80 one in ’18. In a season where everyone was giving up hard contact, Thor simply didn’t, with hard-contact rates under 30% in ’18 and ’19 and a line-drive rate under 20% this year. Quite simply, he can be a dominating presence, and you can’t have enough of those.

Ein minuten bitte, vous einen kleinen problemo avec de religione (he was from everywhere): The thing with Thor is that when you see the stuff, you’re sure he should have deGrom like numbers. And he kinda doesn’t? He’s always struck out a hitter per inning at least, but never gotten into the 11 or 12 per nine innings range where the citizens of Olympus live. And…well actually that’s it, because Thor has put up ERAs under 3.00 twice and another season of 3.03. While deGrom has stolen the headlines with his Cy Young and likely another one on the way, Thor would be the #1 on a lot of teams. It’s not his fault the Mets have been pretty much garbage since his rookie season or that they somehow stumbled into one of the few pitchers better than him on the same rotation.

The other knock on Thor is health, which is a valid concern. But he’s also coming off a season where he threw 197 innings, a career-high, and he’s basically made every start asked in three of his five seasons. With someone who throws this hard there’s always questions about durability. But hey, you can’t make a Molotov cocktail without lighting a fire here and there.

Some Silver? Little Gold?: Ah, here’s the problem. Syndergaard isn’t coming cheap. And we don’t mean in terms of money. The Mets probably know they have a golden ticket here, and sadly they’re not so stupid to miss what that means. So you’re not going to get him pried loose by giving up thrift store fodder.

So what could they use? Wilson Ramos wasn’t exactly terrible for them last year, but he’s going to be 33 next year and has fallen off some of his big years with the Nationals and his one year in Tampa. He’s got two years left on his deal, though the second is a team option and both are at $10M. They couldn’t really find anyone behind him.

So Willson Contreras would be an upgrade, considering he was the best hitting catcher in all of baseball last year in wRC+. He’s an offensive upgrade on everyone, whether you like it or not. He’s also five years younger than Ramos, with what at least appeared or could be argued was improving defense/framing. The Mets had a middling offense last year and could use the boost.

Sure, the Mets could probably more use an upgrade in centerfield, but I don’t think Albert Almora is getting this deal done somehow.

Would Willson for Syndergaard be enough for the Mets? Probably not. But you wouldn’t have to throw in too much more than that, especially if you took Ramos back to split time with Caratini.

Could It Happen?:

But we can get to reality later.

 

Baseball

We Know Your Nature – 2019 Cubs Player Reviews: The Pen And The Rest

By Sam Fels 1504 0

I finally wrap up our Cubs season review, perfectly timed with snow on the ground and the World Series now over and waking up every day from here until March thinking, “Today is the day the Cubs are going to do something stupid, isn’t it?” Anyway, I didn’t feel like giving everyone in the pen or bench a full write-up, so let’s just speed through them and get on with our lives, shall we?

Craig Kimbrel – Jesus God. It was a desperation move, and it played out exactly like one as Kimbrel couldn’t overcome the delayed start to his season, and then the rush job to the Majors. He was bad, he was hurt, and then he was bad. His velocity was down a full two MPH from 2017, the last time he was some galactic creature batters couldn’t handle. He was good in ’18 but the walks had crept up, and that didn’t stop in 2019 either. Perhaps with a full spring training and a clean bill of health, Kimbrel can recover a portion of the lost velocity. He’s never going to be CRAIG GODDAMN KIMBREL again, but there’s little reason to think he can’t be a good to very good reliever. David Ross might want to think about talking to him about moving into something other than a strict closer role so the whole pen can be fluid, but I won’t hop on one foot waiting for that to happen.

Kyle Ryan – Pleasant surprise, of course after I declared he was a new suckbag. Hard to know if he can be counted on again, because he’s the type of reliever that just turns into discarded hygiene products for no reason other than he’s just a reliever. Gets a ton of grounders. Worth taking another look at.

Steve Cishek – Thanks for everything, but remember when you leave your right arm is probably staying here.

Brandon Kintzler – Returned to being the solid reliever he’s been most of his career. Probably worth a one-year deal if he’s willing, but also used earlier in the game and not counted on as a prime set-up guy. Gets lefties out, so hopefully Ross isn’t afraid of using him that way like Maddon was if he’s still here.

Tyler Chatwood – I have this dream where Chatwood and Alzolay are used as multi-inning weapons once or twice a week each, maybe more. That shields the rest of the pen, takes some pressure off the starters, and lets Chatwood come out and blow 97-98 MPH past guys like he was later in the year. It’s probably what he’s best at. The reality is he very well might have a chance at the fifth spot in the rotation. It’s hard not to notice the near 4-to-1 K/BB ratio in the last two months when he became accustomed to the role. It might not be what he wants, but he is good at it.

Rowan Wick – The Pitching Lab’s first success? Probably could have been slotted into a prominent role much quicker than he was. Strikeouts faded laster in the year as he was used more and more, which is a concern. Still gets a ton of grounders. Has a job to lose come Arizona.

David Phelps – Get the fuck outta here with this.

Derek Holland – Great entrance song. Everything else sucked.

Brad Wieck – See, this is really how you’re supposed to find relievers. You find something in a pitcher that his current team doesn’t, or that can be changed or harnessed, you pick him up for nothing and get him firing upon arrival. This big lummox isn’t there yet, but there were signs of hope and is definitely worth another spin. Struck out nearly 17 hitters per nine innings as a Cub.

Dillon Maples – It’s just never going to happen, is it? There is an absolute monster in there somewhere, but it’s buried in fastballs that hit the screen or the mascot. Might be time to wave the white flag on this one.

Duane Underwood Jr. – Yeah sure, let’s see more.

Clearly there need to be upgrades here. You can’t go into next season with questions hanging over Kimbrel and unknowns like the Fabulous Wick-er Boys and some kids. I would say two solid vets, not too expensive, is the prescription here. We’ll get into our shopping list next week.

Baseball

We Know Your Nature – 2019 Cubs Player Reviews: Cole Hamels

By Sam Fels 1493 0

We wrap up our singular player reviews (I’ll have a group one tomorrow about the pen and bench) with the pitcher who might have saved it all, who probably could still help, and yet is probably not coming back. It was a confusing year for Cole Hamels, who looked 27 again for much of it, and then definitely 35 for the important portion. Wait, that’s not confusing at all. Pretty simple, even. Well I’m an idiot. Anyway, let’s do it up.

2019 Stats

27 starts, 141 innings

3.81 ERA  4.09 FIP

9.08 K/9  3.56 BB/9  1.39 WHIP

47.3 GB%  36.4% Hard-Contact Rate  12.9% HR/FB

87 ERA-  2.5 WAR

Tell Me A Story: It’s probably best to look at Hamels’s season before his late-June oblique injury and then his attempted comeback as two separate entities. Because before the injury, Hamels was pretty brilliant. In the first 98.2 innings of 2019, Hamels had a 2.92 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and a 3.58 FIP. Hitters only managed a .231 average off of him, and he was getting over half his contact on the ground. That’s all very good, and no one seemed to care that he was 35. Or even notice, really.

And then he got hurt. And it was the same injury he had in Texas, the one that knocked him off-stride for basically a full season. The one that made him pretty damn affordable via trade for the Cubs. And it was clear that Hamels wasn’t healthy, but still trying to pitch through it, which should have raised more question than it did about the Cubs medical and training staff as he was far from the only one laboring through lingering physical problems. Hamels only threw 42 innings after the injury, though he made 10 starts. His ERA was 5.79. Hitters went for a .315 average off of him, his walk-rate went up a third, and his ground-ball rate dropped by almost a quarter.

When Hamels came back, he had lost a mile per hour or so from all of his pitches, and he didn’t throw that hard to begin with. Worse yet, he’d lost a ton of horizontal movement to his cutter, which wasn’t even breaking in on right-handed hitters anymore. To go with that, his change had lost some fade as well:

It was almost as if Hamels couldn’t “finish” his pitches due to some physical ailment.

Hamels wasn’t around for the series at home to the Cardinals, and didn’t complete more than four innings in any of his last four starts. He was able to gut through some starts post-injury or dance through raindrops, but also got mutilated by the Brewers, Phillies, and Reds in the back half of his season. A healthy Hamels most certainly doesn’t lose all those games, and can probably go longer in others and show up to the post against the Cardinals. Would it have made a difference? It would have made a difference, perhaps not the difference.

Contract: Free agent.

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: This isn’t as cut and dried as some Cubs fans might think. While it’s clear the Cubs need an upgrade in the rotation, and now thanks to the hole left by Hamels they have a clear spot to do it in, the options aren’t plentiful. Gerrit Cole is a pipe dream, and even if Stephen Strasburg were to opt out he might be an even bigger pipe dream (as well as something of a scare after his postseason load. Yes yes, “phrasing”). The rest of the free agent pool absolutely blows. Trade targets aren’t plentiful, as Syndergaard might not be gettable for what the Cubs have to peddle. An aging Corey Kluber? That might yield the same results as Hamels, given his injury problems this year, and he’s only two years younger.

So what the Cubs, or any other team, needs to decide is if Hamels is the pre-injury dude, the post-injury dude, or something in between. And with that, at age-36 is he more or less likely to get hurt again, or more or less likely to recover as well from this one. That’s a lot to figure out, and pretty much none of it has a clear answer.

The pre-injury Hamels is probably enough for the Cubs, especially with a boosted bullpen and at a cheaper rate than the $20M he got last year. Given his age, injury, and the miserly free agent market run by all the scrooges, he’s never going to get that $20M again. But even a guy who’s in between Hamels’s pre- and post-injury performance isn’t enough for the Cubs. Not without another move, at least.

The Cubs might be best slow-playing this one unless something else falls into their lap. If Hamels can’t find the money he wants or team he wants for a while, and you can get him on reasonable money for one year, he very well might be worth the risk. Again, until his injury, Hamels had the 12th-best ERA in all of baseball top-20 in FIP.

Still, you’d have deep reservations about him making it unscathed through a full season, and if you plan on playing in October again, how you’d manage him through that as well. I’d still say if he comes in at somewhere between $10M-$12M for the season, you could absolutely justify the risk.

It shouldn’t be the Cubs first option. Maybe not even second. But as a third or fourth? You can definitely see it.

Baseball

We Know Your Nature – 2019 Cubs Player Reviews: Jose Quintana

By Sam Fels 1382 0

Jose Quintana has probably lost his chance to win over Chicago Cubs faithful now, given that the return for him has washed up on the shores of Comiskey Bay. It’s hard not to cast longing eyes at Eloy Jimenez’s bat, even if I’m skeptical that Dylan Cease will ever have enough control to be as effective as the stuff promises. And even if Q had one more season to create a legacy, you can certainly see a scenario where that season will be shipped somewhere else. Let’s take a look at Q, and where it went wrong for him this season.

2019 Stats

31 starts   171 innings

4.68 ERA   3.80 FIP

8.00 K/9  2.42 BB/9  1.39 WHIP

44.5 GB%  38.1% Hard-Contact rate . 12.1% HR/FB

107 ERA-  3.5 WAR

Tell Me A Story: I hadn’t really looked at Q’s season closely until now, and what’s kind of weird is that even with the last third of it being so bad, it was still a way better season in terms of WAR or FIP than 2018. Which I’m having a hard time reconciling. It might have to do with luck, as Q was laced with a .326 BABIP this year whereas he had .282 one the previous season, both of which nestle comfortably 20 points either side of his career norms. So while his ERA was markedly better in ’18, what the underlying numbers are telling us is that it probably shouldn’t have been. Q cutting his walks and homers significantly this year also speak to that.

Q came into the season saying he wanted to use his change-up more, and for the most part he did. He had never used it more than 6% of the time in previous seasons, but was up near 12% this time around. He got gun-shy with it at times early in the year, but overcame that. The problem was it became less effective as the season went along, and was pulverized by hitters in September where everything went wrong. The whiffs-per-swing rate on it in the season’s final month was a paltry 16%, and hitters ran up a .462 average against it. The problem was that it lost its sink as the season went along…

That’s one reason Q’s September looked so horrible, with an ERA nearing 6.00. Another was that in the last month, when the Cubs really needed him, Q had a BABIP of .447. And that’s with his contact numbers remaining the same. I can recall off the top of my head two starts, against the Nats and the Padres, where he couldn’t get his defense to make an out if they had that Bugs Bunny glove.

But still, Q gave up way more hard contact this year than we’d seen in the past. Then again, that was the story for most pitchers this year. There was a change in approach from Q, who went to a sinker more this season than ever before and also tried elevating his fastball more when he did throw it. Q used to try and Lester it by burying his four-seam on the hands of righties, but maybe he didn’t feel he has quite the hop on hit anymore to get in there. The zone-look on his career and this year’s fastball due bear that out.

Which makes you wonder where he goes from here, as it’s unlikely that his fastball is going to pick up a tick in his 30s. He’s a pretty smart pitcher, so you’d have faith he’ll come up with something. As September showed, hitters could just start leaning out and taking balls on the outside corner wherever they wanted, which is noted by the 43% pull-rate hitters had in that month even though Q was concentrating most of his stuff on the outside corner.

Contract: $11.5M team option for 2020, $1M buyout, then free agency in 2021

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: Even if the Cubs would rather move on from Quintana or upgrade in the three or four spot, to be more kind, picking up his option is a no-brainer. Even half-dead fifth starters make more than $11.5M, so Q remains an absolute bargain. He would have some trade value simply due to that, and then add whatever bounce-back an interested team would anticipate on top of that.

There are obviously big warning signs. The decreasing velocity and the inability to get inside on righties. His durability isn’t what it was, as he hasn’t come near 200 innings in the past two seasons. That was one of the draws. The WHIP and contact numbers are headed in the wrong direction.

Still, the Cubs need an upgrade in the rotation even with Q in it. Moving him along means they would have to fill two spots, and Q as a #4 or #5, which is what he was really supposed to be this yea before Hamels got hurt and basically was, it a good spot to be in. If the Cubs can find one other starter to slot ahead of him and Lester and up among Hendricks and Darvish, they’ll be just fine. If Q can find a way to get inside on righties or find a way around not being able to, he’s an excellent candidate for a return-year.

The urge to upgrade is reasonable. The path to doing so isn’t so easy, and considering what he costs and what the Cubs might have to spend, having him slot at the bottom of the rotation is nowhere near a death sentence.