Baseball

Oh My God, It’s Happening: White Sox Sign Yasmani Grandal

By Adam Hess 2016 0

There is no need to bury a lede here: The Chicago White Sox did the damn thing and signed Yasmani Grandal to a 4-year, $73-million deal. I don’t need to tell you this, but it’s obviously a monumental deal for the White Sox in so many ways, and we will get to them all.

Quite frankly, this is a move that I thought made so much sense and was so damn obvious to make, that in reality the Sox would end up balking at it and taking option B or C and ending up with Jason Castro or something of the ilk. I was also nervous that the White Sox were going to think that they ultimately caught lightning in a bottle with James McCann and just ride with him. Instead, Rich Hahn & Co. went out and targeted this guy who is one of the two best catchers in the game, made perfect sense for their roster and pitching staff, and they prioritized signing him and did so early. I almost can’t believe that as I write it.

Let’s talk about all of the ways this is so big, starting with the most important part – on the field. Here are all of the stats that Yasmani Grandal would have been among the top 5 Sox players last season: walks, walk rate, OBP, slugging, OPS, wRC+, fWAR, ISO, wOBA. I could probably keep going, but you get my point. Most of those stats he would have been a top-3 player on the roster and some of them he would’ve led the team. He has been the 12th most valuable player in baseball by fWAR since 2015. Apropos of nothing, he is one slot higher than Manny Machado in those rankings.

Moreover, short of signing Gerrit Cole and/or Anthony Rendon, which we knew was never realistic, signing Grandal is the one move they could’ve made that would help them the most on the field. This guy is one of the best hitting catchers in baseball and his framing ability is one of the best in the game as well, no matter what his 2018 playoff struggles with receiving might trick you into believing. He’s a switch-hitting catcher, high-OBP catcher who brings power and can play 1B or DH as well. He had the 19th highest fWAR among MLB hitters in 2019. He is a stud, and he is a White Sox.

That framing and defense is also going to be near invaluable to this young White Sox pitching staff. Last year James McCann was the worst framing catcher in the American League. So the Sox just went from worst to best in an instant. Moreover, for all of their strengths and lethal stuff, the biggest concern about some of the Sox’ young high-ceiling arms like Michael Kopech and Dylan Cease is lack of control. Now they have one of the premier defensive catchers behind the plate that will help them out if they can keep it close. It also presents as a very attractive shiny toy for any prospective free agent pitchers like Zach Wheeler, who the Sox are also rumored to be interested in.

Riffing off of that last point, the other big aspect of this trade is the splash. The White Sox just signed one of the best players in baseball to a big contract – the biggest in franchise history. They did it on November 21 rather than waiting it out. They were aggressive. They’re showing other teams and other free agents that they are absolutely intent on competing moving forward, and they are to be taken seriously. And the fact that Grandal is one of the best players in baseball and was willing to take their money and buy into their vision, while complimenting their professionalism and process (which might just be typical new signing lip service, but it still could be valuable) lends a lot of legitimacy to this franchise. Other free agents might be looking at the prospect of playing at 3th and Shields a little differently now.

There are a few questions to be asked about what this means moving forward for James McCann and Zach Collins, but I don’t think it’s that complicated. McCann fits best as a backup and platoon type anyway given that he rakes lefties but looks like he is using an actual rake as a bat against righties. Collins was never going to stick behind the plate anyway, and can now move to being a full-time DH considering his best position is hitter, or you can use him as a trade chip for a pitcher (might I suggest one Jon Gray). Use McCann to spell Grandal behind the plate against lefties and let Grandal play first. I think overall, Grandal as your everyday catcher with McCann as backup and Collins as potential fill in is an ideal scenario.

Overall, this is a huge move. I have been saying for months that Grandal would be my number one priority if I was Rick Hahn, and it turned out that Rick agreed with me. AJ talked about this a few weeks ago as well, though he overshot the contract by a lot because he thought the Sox would have to extra-overpay. But in the end, this is a guy that most Sox fans wanted and should have wanted, and in the end the Sox went and got him. They did the damn thing. It’s a good day.

Don’t stop now, boys.

Baseball

Burden In My Hand – White Sox Offseason Wishlist: Anthony Rendon

By Andy Jonathan 1627 0

I told myself I wasn’t gonna fall for it again. I wasn’t going to get excited about anything that Rick Hahn has to say about offseason targets or the money they plan on spending or who might be in play for the Sox to sign as a free agent. Yet here we are, listening to him with reporters at a spa in Arizona talk about potential targets for the offseason and the needs of the White Sox in both the near and long term.

“Part of what we were trying to do and what we were trying to make clear was that the eye level has changed around here, meaning that we are a logical destination for premium talent,”

This isn’t really a surprise on the face of it, as Hahn isn’t going to say anything less than that because every agent in the MLB Universe is listening for anything that could give them an edge in negotiations. The fact that Hahn even mentions “premium talent” implies that they’ll be in on everybody this winter, as pretty much everybody in the top tier the Sox theoretically SHOULD be in on.

Which brings us to today’s target. Someone that I wasn’t going to bother with, but now much like Charlie Brown with Lucy and the football, I’m trying to convince myself that THIS TIME IT WILL BE DIFFERENT. I know deep in my heart it’s gonna get yanked away again, but hope springs eternal. So let’s charge headlong at that football and talk about Anthony Rendon.

Why Him?: Did you see him in the postseason this year? (judging by the ratings up until Game 7 the answer is probably no) The man was a machine, posting a 1.10 OPS during the entire run, with 3 HR and 10 extra base hits to go along with his 15 RBI. Postseason stats not good enough for you? Well he’s been one of the best hitters in the majors the past 3 seasons. Since 2016 he’s been an unstoppable hitting force, 4th best in the entire league.

In that time he’s slashed .294/.384/.528 with 103 dingers and 403 RBIs. The only player higher than him in RBI totals is Nolan Arenado and his home park has the same gravity as the International Space Station. Oh, Rendon has also been worth 24.2 WAR in that time span. The closest White Sox player in that category is newly resigned Jose Abreu with 9.4 WAR. On top of that Rendon is a plus defender at the hot corner, totaling +18 DRS in his career with the Nationals. UZR likes his defense even more, having him at a +32.1 for his entire career.

He also smokes right handed pitching, batting .289 against them in his career, and over .300 in the past few years including a .320 mark this past season with 24 home runs. There’s nothing this guy can’t do at the plate. He’s an instant upgrade for the White Sox batting order, and would most likely hit 3rd after Yoan Moncada and before Jose Abreu or Eloy. If you can’t get excited about that batting order, then you’re most likely suffering from a critical case of being dead.

Why Not Him?: Theoretically there should be nothing in this category. The guy is amazing and instantly makes the team better. In reality? He’s represented by Scott Boras, so there’s the history between him and Jerry Reinsdorf right off the bat. He’s also by far and away the best hitter on the market, so the Sox will have to contend with multiple suitors for his services and we’ve seen how that played out in the past.

He’ll also be entering into his age 30 season, and if you’re super worried about Jerry getting the most value for his investment (I’m not) regression would be a concern. Also he plays 3rd base, so defensively you either move Yoan back to 2B or you ask Rendon if he’s willing to move to 1B from time to time or DH. Or perhaps you try Moncada in RF which kills two birds with one stone, other than the fact that he’s never played in the OF so you’re resigning yourself to Luis Robert basically playing the entire field by himself.

These are all nitpicks, however. None of this should stop Hahn from making Boras an offer that Rendon can’t refuse as he instantly makes the Sox an offensive threat and puts the entire central division on notice that they’re coming for them.

How Much Is This Free Resort Weekend?: Now we come to the rub. Boras has talked openly about trying to get Rendon a deal in the range of what Nolan Arenado got from the Rockies when he signed his extension last season (7 years and $234 million). The comps between the two are similar, with Arenado being a year and a half younger than Rendon.

Rough guess here, but I would think Boras would have a goal set of 7 years and $250 million giving his contract an AAV of around $35 million. Would the Sox be willing to go $8 million more a year then what they offered up to Manny Machado in their failed pursuit last offseason? I think we all know the answer is no, when in reality it shouldn’t matter in the slightest. The team payroll sits at a meager $55 million right now after Abreu accepted his qualifying offer yesterday leaving plenty of space for what Hahn needs to add and extend on the Sox roster.

There should be no reason Rick Hahn and Jerry can’t take a realistic run at Rendon this offseason, and signing him would be a cause for great celebration among the White Sox faithful. It would also show the fanbase that they aren’t fucking around this time and the story of Jerry saying “finishing second pays just as much” is a total myth. Not to mention it certainly would solve a lot of the team’s offensive woes. It makes a lot of sense for the Sox, and would make a whole lot of dollars for Jerry to field the first winning roster in over 7 years. It’s gonna be different this time, right?

Hope springs eternal.

Baseball

We Can Plant A House, We Can Build A Tree – Cubs Offseason Wishlist: Jon Gray

By Sam Fels 1395 0

We’ve been through a few pitchers the Cubs could just sign, some good some bad. We started this whole thing off with a trade target, and that was Thor, which will never happen. So let’s cycle back to another trade target, something of a baby Thor. And that’s Jon Gray.

Gray is probably on the trade market because he only has two more years of control, and the Rockies are loathe to spend money they don’t have to, even more than the Cubs. They’re not going to sign him when he’s a free agent, and there are some things about his performance that would give any team pause, so they can probably sell him at his highest now before he breaks again. Would he make sense for the Cubs? Yeah, he just might.

Why A Spoon, Sire?: Gray was sneaky good last year, when you adjust for the fact that he basically pitches his home games on the moon. He finished the year with a 76 ERA- (100 is average, and counts down), which if he had enough innings would have been one of the best marks in the league. It was the second out of the last three that he was around 75, which he also did in 2017.

The strange this is this past season, Gray doesn’t have much of a home/road split. Hitters had a .261 average against him at home, and a .258 on the road. On-base and slugging are just about the same as well. His ERA at home was 3.46, and 4.22 on the road. He actually had a worse home-run rate on the road, which doesn’t make a ton of sense but that’s the way the cookie crumbles. And for his career, there really isn’t much difference between home and road for Gray. He’s basically the same pitcher.

Which is a pretty good one. Gray has struck out just a tick above a hitter per inning in all four of his full seasons in the Majors. If you go by percentage, he’s struck out a tick above league average as well. In three seasons, he’s maintained a 3-to-1 K/BB rate. This year, Gray bumped up the amount of grounders he gets to over 50%, which would play even better away from Coors as the altitude tends to turn their infield into a runway. Still, the Rockies had a great infield defense, which Gray would find here.

Ein minute bitte, vous einen kleined problemo avec de religione (he was from everywhere): There are flags with Gray, of course. One is health. Gray has never taken on a full slate of starts in a season, managing over 30 starts just once (and 29 on another occasion). He’s achy-breaky. He just turned 28, so he’s probably just always going to be the kind who misses 5-10 starts a year. Again, we’ve gone over this before, that the Cubs should be buffeted for that kind of thing with Chatwood and Alzolay around, but it’s not something you’d willingly choose if you didn’t have to.

Second, Gray only throws two pitches really. As we’ve seen with Chris Archer, the shelf-life for starters with only a fastball and a slider isn’t very long, and Gray could be coming to the end of his if he doesn’t add something. He does have a decent curveball, and if a team could draw that out of him more then you might really have something. It would just be a departure from his approach in his whole career. On the plus side, Gray’s fastball gained some velocity this past season, so it’s probably still some time before his fastball is a problem.

Third, Gray has given up a ton of hard contact, and especially this past season. Statcast has him at 43% hard-contact against, and FanGraphs at 39%. The StatCast mark is in the bottom 4% in the league, The average 89.8 MPH exit velocity isn’t pleasant to look at either, and that’s not altitude influenced. And he’s been trending that way for the past two seasons.

Little Silver? Little Gold?: Gray would be moved for prospects, as the Rockies system blows, they don’t really want to add any payroll if they can help it. Gray has two years of arbitration left, and he’s projected to get $5.6M this year so you’d have to guess his last year of arbitration would be somewhere around $7M-$8M, unless he goes nuclear next year. His affordability will make him a harder trade, but them’s the breaks. The Cubs aren’t laced with prospects, and other teams might be in on Gray given his low salary and high ceiling and relatively established floor. It would probably take a couple B-Level ones to get this done. Very well might be worth it.

Baseball

We Can Plant A House, We Can Build A Tree – Cubs Offseason Wishlist: Brock Holt

By Sam Fels 1311 0

Full disclosure, a signing of Brock Holt would allow me to open up the box marked “Mike Olt/Steve Holdt Jokes” that I never really got to use much when Olt prove to be an oaf. So I’m biased. Still, while it would hardly be the sexiest signing the Cubs could make, it would have some purpose. The Cubs might need help filling in second base while Nico Hoerner cooks some more in Triple-A. They could use a little more flexibility, depending on what happens with Ian Happ this winter, or Albert Almora, or really the whole goddamn thing. And they can probably use some relatively affordable help. Holt checks all the boxes.

Why A Spoon, Sire?: Well one, Holt plays everywhere. He played second mostly for the Red Sox, but in the past has played short, third, some first, and even some spots in the outfield. He hasn’t flexed around the diamond of late, but it’s probably still in the holster if you need it.

Second, Holt murdered right-handed pitching this past season. If you focus only on his work against them, he slashed .318/.394/.438, good for a 119 wRC+. It’s best if you don’t look at his work against left-handed pitching, but the Cubs really should be covered for that with David Bote lying around and possibly Happ switch-hitting as well. He also had a near 40% hard-contact rate against them.

And that might be a one-season trend. In 2018 Holt hit both sides well, and his career numbers don’t suggest a huge split. Holt may have been a touch unlucky last year against southpaws, as with a 27% line-drive rate against them he only managed a .277 BABIP. He was probably due a couple more hits. That’s one of the better line-drive rates against lefties in the game, if he’d had enough ABs to qualify which he obviously didn’t as a utility player.

Thirdly, the Cubs seem intent on adding contact hitters to the lineup, and Holt is that when he plays. Holt has an 86.5% contact-rate, which on the Cubs would be just about astronomical. Of all their regulars, only Rizzo was above 80%. Holt walks a decent amount, doesn’t strike out much, and gets the ball in play. The Cubs don’t have a ton of that, though Hoerner is supposed to make up some of that difference.

Ein minuten bitte, vous einen kleinen problemo avec de religione (he was from everywhere): Well, it’s debatable how much the Cubs need a player like this, depending on the other maneuvers the team makes (Hilda…I have invented a maneuver….). There’s a chance Hoerner could start the year as the top second baseman, and he could fill in at short when Javy needs a day. As we said, Bote’s around, so Holt wouldn’t be much more than a left-handed compliment to him. And if Happ is still here, and not permanently installed in left after a Kyle Schwarber trade (don’t you fucking dare, Theo), he can bounce into second as well.

Holt doesn’t provide a lot of pop, just kind of serviceable offense that blends nicely with his flexibility. Or what used to be his flexibility. That’s the other thing, is that it’s been a couple years since he was moved around everywhere, so there’s a chance he might not be able to do it anymore. Still rather have him taking these ABs than Descalso, though.

Holt will also turn 32 during the season, so that also plays a role in what he can or can’t do.

Little Silver? Little Gold?: Another part of the appeal here is he can’t possibly cost much. Holt made $3.75M in arbitration last year, and this is his first crack at free agency. I can’t fathom he’d cost more than $4M or $5M for one year, if that. Oh here’s a kicker, it was Theo who drafted him. So you know there’s a connection there. For a utility bat, you could do way worse.

Baseball

Burden In My Hand – White Sox Offseason Wishlist: Chris Archer

By Andy Jonathan 1343 0

I talked earlier about the need for the White Sox to fortify the front end of their rotation earlier by adding Zack Wheeler via free agency. What if the Sox could accomplish the same thing without Rick Hahn having to spend nearly as much of Jerry Reinsdorf’s precious precious gold? I’m gonna propose something pretty wacky and radical, but it fits the Sox modus operandi perfectly, plus it gives Don Cooper his favorite thing in the world: a reclamation project.

Time to turn Chris Archer’s career around.

I know we here at FFUD talk a lot about pilfering from the Pirates stash of available players. Wes already did it with Starling Marte, I’m gonna propose taking Archer, and Adam has a plan to free Josh Bell from PNC Park that you’ll hear about tomorrow. The reason we’ve decided to raid the Pirates is twofold: They’re gonna rebuild again, and they have a history of being dumb. If Hahn can take advantage of both, he absolutely should.

Why Him?: Based solely on his stats from last season, one would think there really isn’t a good reason the Sox should be doing this. By any metric available, Archer had a terrible season, going 3-9 with a 5.19 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP and a ginormous 4.19 BB/9. His FIP was a career-high 5.02 which suggests he earned every bit of that ERA. Taking that into account the Pirates would not be dealing from a position of strength in trade talks, but why would the Sox want him?

This is purely a buy-low scenario for Hahn and the Sox. Archer has been an excellent pitcher in the past, and has pretty nasty strikeout stuff when his accuracy doesn’t abandon him completely. He’s only two years removed from a 10-win, 200+ inning effort with the Rays on a pretty terrible team. He also struck out 249 batters that year, the third season in a row of him having 230+ strikeouts. He also had a tolerable 4.03 ERA, which his 3.40 FIP suggests was aided and abetted by bad D behind him and playing in what essentially is the tip of a concrete condom.

His velocity still sits at almost 95 MPH on his four seam fastball, so there hasn’t been any losses there. The Pirates tried to get him to use a two-seamer last season to predictably terrible results. Once he ditched it and went back to the four-seam, his results in August were much better, as he had a 3.00 ERA in four starts that month. He also struck out 27 batters in those 18 innings before he was lifted with shoulder issues in the 4th start.

This is also the perfect time for the Sox to make a play for him, as his contract jumps up to $9 million from the $6.25 that it was two seasons ago. For a team that (based on what they’ve said publicly) is looking to shed payroll and enter a full rebuild mode $9 million off the books for minor league talent would most likely be fairly attractive. In addition to that, Archer has a team option for $11 million next season with a $250K team buyout, so the Sox wouldn’t be saddled with a shitty contract if Cooper isn’t able to fix him.

Why Not Him?: Archer was shut down at the end of August with shoulder inflammation, which is never good for a pitcher. In addition, it was never discovered what actually caused the inflammation so there is the possibility that there is something structurally wrong with his shoulder that the doctors have not been able to find so far. Also, he did just get his skull caved in for the first four months of the season last year, so there’s a lot of inherent risk in making this move.

How Much Is This Free Resort Weekend?: Here’s where it gets fun, because it’s probably not going to take a ton to pry Archer away from the Pirates. His career worst year pretty much seals that. In addition, the fact that the new GM has a chance to flip a player that the guy who had the job before him gave way too much away for (Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow? Holy shit, that really WAS a dumb fucking move. No wonder the guy got fired). Everybody likes making the guy who had your job before you look like a moron, so he can trade Archer to the Sox for some middling prospects as a salary dump. Perhaps Blake Rutherford and Luis Gonzalez would be enough to wet the whistle of the new Bucs GM, whoever it ends up being.

This is a pretty out-there idea but it fits the way the Sox like to operate. If the dice roll comes up eleven, the Sox could end up with the kind of guy who is a solid #3 starter for them at a very controllable price (which Jerry loves). If they make the deal and Archer is still getting shelled they can cut bait and only be out of $250K next season, which I’m sure they’d just trade to the Rangers with some international bonus pool money anyways. Let’s get weird, people!

Baseball

We Can Plant A House, We Can Build A Tree – Cubs Offseason Wishlist: Kyle Gibson

By Sam Fels 1246 0

Took me a week and a half, but I’m finally getting around to the pitcher that MLB Trade Rumors has the Cubs picking up. And that’s Minnesota starter Kyle Gibson. It wouldn’t be the sexiest name, and it might not even get your pulse going above normal at all. Does it make any sense? Let’s dive in.

Why A Spoon, Sire?: Maybe because they think he’ll be cheap. Gibson did not have a very impressive 2019. His ERA was a full run higher than it was in 2018, and he had health problems with a bout of ulcerative colitis, which sounds just about as pleasant as trying to make out with a wolverine (not THE wolverine, because who here wouldn’t make out with Hugh Jackman? I thought so). Gibson has claimed it stemmed from catching E. coli last offseason on a trip to Haiti and the Dominican, as this story just gets more and more pleasant. How healthy Gibson was for most of the year, he wasn’t shut down until September, seems to be open for debate. Gibson did say he’d lost about 10 pounds through the colitis and hadn’t slept well all season because of it, so do with that what you will. Which should be nothing because…gross.

Anyway, even with that, Gibson’s 2019 looks a little better under the hood than the surface numbers would indicate. He continues to get a ton of grounders, 51% of his contact in fact. He struck out a career-high rate, with nine hitters per nine innings or 22%, another career mark. And his 7.9% walk-rate was the second-lowest of his career. He managed to do all that while trying not to shit out his guts, so you have to give him something.

Gibson was undone by things that might not continue. One being a 20% HR/FB rate, as he perhaps got the business end of the homer-karma the Twins had as they were belting out 300+ homers as a team that made no sense. Gibson’s career number in that category is 14.1%, so he could see a drop in homers against simply because reasons. Gibson has given up over 40% hard-contact on fly balls for the past three years, so that rate probably won’t come tumbling down either, though. Gibson also had a 67% left-on-base percentage, which means he was getting some bad sequencing luck.

Gibby also was undone by some fiendish BABIP treachery, with a .330 BABIP that was 22 points over his career mark and 45 points above his 2018 finish. Again, that will come down simply because, and might even come down aggressively with a Cubs infield behind him (not that the Twins were defensive stiffs or anything near it). Still, an expected slugging of .428 and an expected-wOBA of .330 is not exactly encouraging.

Much like his teammate Jake Odorizzi, whom we focused on yesterday, Gibson found a little bump in velocity with his fastball and sinker this past season. His sinker and change are the main ground-ball weapons, but he also used a curve more and perhaps an enterprising team would try to get him to use it even more. Gibson’s curve has really picked up drop in the past two seasons, along with some horizontal movement.

He only threw it 13% of the time last year, and perhaps bumping that closer to 20% could see him improve. With a 40% whiff-per-swing mark on it, it could be more of a weapon than it is at the moment, or at least there’s a chance it could.

Ein minuten bitte, vous einen kleinen problemo avec de religione (he was from everywhere): Well, there’s the small fact that Gibson really only has two good years in the majors, and that was 2018 and 2015. ’16 and ’17 saw him have an ERA over 5.00 and the FIPs weren’t kind to him either. Even though Gibson has never walked a ton of guys, while also not being terribly miserly with his free passes, his WHIPs have been horrific because he gives up a lot of hits, whether he’s being beaten about in homers or not. And that’s because he just gives up a lot of hard-contact.

While his stuff has improved, at least the curveball, it’s unlikely that he’ll ever be a dominate-a-lineup guy and more of a dance-through-the-rain guy. And the Cubs already have like, three of those.

Gibson is 32 now and will be for the 2020 season, so his window of improvement is very small if it exists at all. This is probably the guy you’re going to get.

Little Silver? Little Gold?: MLBTR has Gibson and the Cubs coming to a two-year, $18M deal. Which is certainly the kind of deal you’d give to “a guy,” which is pretty much what Gibson is. He’ll take the ball 28-30 times and…well, that’s really all we can guarantee. Maybe if you change his repertoire around a bit and maybe if he’s finally past his internal health problems you can get a little more, but it’s highly unlikely he’ll give you anything spectacular.

If you’re looking merely to plug a gap, Gibson can do that. If you’re looking to actually improve that gap, then there are myriad options out there like the ones we’ve discusses–Wheeler, Ryu, Odorizzi, and on and on. Gibson is basically a Jason Hammel, and the Cubs need more than that because they can’t guarantee Darvish’s health or revival at 33, and they have no idea what they’ll get out of Lester or Q.

Not enough…I need more…

 

Baseball

We Can Plant House, We Can Build A Tree – Cubs Offseason Wishlist: Jake Odorizzi

By Sam Fels 1276 0

It’s funny, because this is the name that the Sox fans in my life keep saying, “This is what we’re going to end up with instead of Cole or Strasburg.” Jake Odorizzi is seen very much as a consolation prize, or even worse by some. And he’s certainly not going to replace anyone at the top of anyone’s rotation. But he’s also not a bottom-rotation guy either, and wouldn’t you know it that the Cubs seem to have a hole right in between Darvish-Hendricks and then Lester-Q. So this might be a better idea for the Northsiders than the Southsiders. Let’s look.

Why A Spoon, Sire?: Well, there’s always risk in basing too much off a free agent year, which mysteriously seem to bring out career-highs for players in a lot of categories. Funny how that works. Still, Odorizzi is coming off of a season where he struck out more hitters than ever before, and the Cubs are not a high-K staff at the moment. He eclipsed 10 K per nine for the first time, or 27% of the hitters he saw. He had only been over 22% once before in seven seasons.

Odorizzi got there through a slight pop in his velocity, and also going to a power sinker far more than he had before. He started throwing it upon arrival in Minnesota in 2018, and then bumped up its usage to over 20% this year. The rise from an average of 91 MPH to over 93 on it this season led to a surge in his whiffs-per-swing on it, to 30% from 17%. Where earlier in his career he threw it less than 10% of the time with two strikes, this past season it was pretty much his kneecap pitch, throwing it a third of the time to put away lefties and 20% of the time to get righties.

Odorizzi also wasn’t afraid to go after hitters with his four-seam, and has really subscribed to keeping it high in the zone or above to get hitters out as well. And hitters have been less and less able to get to pitches in the top tier in the zone or above it, as their whiff-per-swing was higher this year by some margin than the career rate he’d managed in those spots over his career. So it could appear that Odorizzi has hit upon something to make ABs end more often without anyone moving (apart from the batter turning around that is).

Ein minuten bitte, vous einen kleinen problemo avec de religione (he was from everywhere): One is innings. Odorizzi rarely if ever sees the sixth inning. So he’s a tax on your pen, and these days Lester and Quintana don’t figure to give you a ton of length either. Then again, this might just be how the game is now and the front office is planning for it.

Odorizzi made 30 starts last year, but only threw 159 innings. He got past the fifth in just about a third of his starts, and only to the 7th twice. He basically gets two times through the lineup and maybe a couple more hitters if things are going well. Again, this might just be the way things are now, and I’ll keep stressing that if you have Chatwood and Alzolay as multi-inning pieces in the pen at the same time, this isn’t that big of a deal. Alzolay would have to prove he can do that still, and the front office to plan for it. But more and more teams are going to have short-inning starters and multi-inning relievers to cover for it, so you might as well get on board now.

Odorizzi will also be 30 when next season starts, so his bump in velocity might only be a short-term thing. He’s probably not going to throw this hard, which isn’t all that hard, when he’s 33 or 34. Good thing no one signs four or five-year deals anyway.

Odorizzi also ran a pretty hot BABIP and hard-contact rate against last year, with Baseball Savant suggesting he should have given up a .400 slugging against. The hard-contact rate against him was over 40%, so while his BABIP was nearly 30 points over his career-average, you get the impression the Twins’ exceptional defense, especially in the outfield, bailed him out a bit.

The Cubs will not have an exceptional outfield defense.

Little Silver? Little Gold?: MLBTR has him staying in Minny to the tune of a three-year, $51M deal. That’s $17M a year, which seems a bit much for a third starter as he would be for the Cubs. It’s not other worldly though, at a time when you’re paying Chatwood over $10M to be a swing guy. Of course, this is probably Tom Ricketts’s point when he doesn’t want to pay anyone else. Odorizzi did get a qualifying offer from the Twins, which means if he doesn’t take it he thinks he can do better than $17.8M a year. He also would cause you to lose a draft pick, and the Cubs seem pretty intent on restocking the farm system (to psychotic levels or as a cover story for being cheap asses), so losing high draft picks probably isn’t on their radar for a mid-rotation starter.

FanGraphs has him pegged at a more reasonable three-years, $45M tab, which sounds much more appetizing for where and what he’ll be. Odorizzi basically provided what Cole Hamels did in the first three months of the season before getting hurt last year. And the Cubs paid $20M for that. So you do the math.

 

 

Baseball

Burden In My Hand – White Sox Offseason Wishlist: Marcell Ozuna

By Andy Jonathan 1351 0

Here’s another player who fits the Sox needs almost too perfectly, so getting my hopes up that they sign him is basically folly. Let’s talk about him anyways because it’s snowing outside and what else are we gonna do on a Monday morning?

We’ve gone over ad nauseam about the pathetic output the Sox have gotten out of the RF spot the past few years, but here’s one more stat to hammer that point home: In the past 3 seasons, the White Sox are 29th out of 30 for production out of the RF spot in the major leagues.

They’ve accumulated a whopping 1.3 WAR from RF in those three years, and if Daniel Palka wasn’t playing out of his mind in 2018 this number would probably be negative. In comparison, the teams the Sox are chasing in the Central have gotten 6.9 (nice) and 12.0 respectively (Indians and Twins).

Marcell Ozuna, come on down!

Why Him?: Mostly because he’s young(ish) and hits with pop from a premium position of need for the White Sox. Last season was something of a down year for Ozuna, having a .241/.378/.472 slash line with a 110 wRC+ and 2.6 WAR. He also a +2 DRS for the Cards last season, though he split time in left and right field.

So for a right fielder those aren’t the greatest numbers in the world but even with his down season he still hit 29 bombs in a pretty cavernous Busch Stadium. He’s also only 2 years removed from a .312/.376/.548 season where he hit 37 dingers and drove in 134. In addition, he also won a gold glove that season to go along with his AS Game appearance and Silver Slugger Award.

Honestly, if he were to split the difference between last season and his 2017 one those stats alone would be enough to merit a very hard look by the Sox front office. A .275/.370/.495 line would mark the best production for the White Sox RF position since Jermaine Dye was gunning runners down from out there.

He’s also entering his age 29 season, so it’s not like the regression monster will becoming for him anytime soon. Moving from Busch stadium to The Down Arrow should also help his power numbers. With only 330 to the Sox bullpen in left as opposed to the 338 in Busch you would think that’s worth another few home runs. In short, the Sox should rectify their mistake of not attempting to trade/fleece the Marlins a few years ago by signing him to a 5 year deal.

Why Not Him?: There’s always the question of cost, as Ozuna will likely be the most expensive outfielder available on the market this winter. On top of that, the Cardinals extended him a qualifying offer last week, so any attempt to sign him will cost the Sox a draft pick (though that shouldn’t matter in the slightest, but it’s Rick Hahn).

He’s also not amazing in the outfield, but the Sox are going to have to decide if they’d rather hit the shit out of the ball or have a gold glove caliber outfield because unless you’re the Astros you can’t have both. A +25 career DRS score and a +4.7 career UZR/150 rating isn’t bad, and it’s certainly an upgrade over what the Sox had been trotting out there. Having a fully armed and operational Luis Robert patrolling center field would help as well.

Also, his facial hair is very confusing to me. What is going on here?

How Much Is This Free Resort Weekend?: Fangraphs has Ozuna getting a four year deal for at total of around $70 million with an AAV of about $17.5. Assuming the Sox are always swimming upstream in the free agent market due to the ever-present cheapness of their owner I would think a 4 year deal at $19 million per season would be around his asking price.

He’s also not represented by Scott Boras, so there’s another point in the Sox favor as we all know the long an contentious history between him and Jerry Reinsdorf. The Cardinals are said to be interested in bringing Osuna back, which could potentially create a bidding war for his services though this could just be conjecture dropped by his agency to up his price.

With not much OF help available in the free agency pool in 2021 (other than Mookie Betts, and if you think the Sox will be in on signing him, I’ve got a wall in Colorado to sell and build for you) and not much in the way of assistance coming from the farm system anytime soon it would seem that Ozuna is the best option for the Sox via the open market. I’m not really interested in Nick Castellanos (even though Wes did a pretty good job of selling him to me) as he’s not an OF long term and the Sox have plenty of first baseman. Yasiel Puig could be an option, but I don’t think him and Renteria are gonna get along very well. That leaves us with Marcell, and you can do a ton worse if he’s your right fielder for the foreseeable future.

Get it done, Rick.

 

 

Baseball

We Can Plant A House, We Can Build A Tree – Cubs Offseason Wishlist: Drew Pomeranz

By Sam Fels 1191 0

Quite simply, this was the reliever the Cubs should have gotten at the deadline instead of dead-ass and dude-on-the-couch lookin’ motherfucker Derek Holland. The Brewers did, and watched Pomeranz become a monster out of the pen. Which is what the Cubs need. How much of a difference would Pomeranz have made? Probably not enough, but one you’d notice. Probably wouldn’t have given up that grand slam to Bryce, all I’m sayin’.

Let’s get to it.

Why A Spoon, Sire?: Because as stated above, Pomeranz was absolutely nails once the Brewers turned him into a reliever for the season’s last two months. Pomeranz ran a 47% K-rate to go with a 7.6% BB-rate, good enough for nearly a 7-to-1 K/BB ratio. His ERA was 1.88 out of the pen, with a FIP of 1.92. He gave up 16 hits in 28 innings, and a slugging against of .278. And that was against hitters from both sides of the plate, as he struck out 45% of the righties he saw too.

Coming out of the pen, it was natural that Pomeranz’s already plus-fastball would see a boost because he was only facing three-to-six batters or so. And it did, jumping up to 95.1 MPH average in August and 96.4 MPH in September. You got a lot of lefties throwing 95 MPH around? No, you fucking don’t. They’re pretty rare.

Pomeranz only used two pitches out of the pen, with the other being his curve. That also saw a jump of three MPH as well when he started coming out of the pen exclusively, which can either be good or bad but is enough off of his fastball that’s it’s effective. Pomeranz was also able to almost double the amount of sweep it had across the zone out of the pen, which is a big reason why he was getting nearly a 50% whiff-rate per swing on it in September. Pomeranz’s curve and inclination to throw his fastball high in the zone mean they come out of the same “tunnel,” which is what everyone is looking for these days.

Last year wasn’t the first time he’s come out of the pen, doing so in Oakland and Boston as well before landing in San Francisco. His numbers have always jumped the right way as a reliever, so this is what he is.

Ein minuten bitte, vous einen kleinen problemo avec de religione (he was from everywhere): It’s hard to find too much wrong with Pomeranz, other than last year’s sample size, I guess, and any urge he might have to start again. You could certainly tell him he’d have a “chance” to spot start for the Cubs, and hell you might even mean it, but he’d have to be behind Chatwood and Alzolay on the depth chart.

Pomeranz is only 30, and only made 46 appearances total with starts included, so it’s not like a Cishek situation where he’s going to show up and have his arm turn into putty in August. At least you wouldn’t think. Pomeranz has had his injury issues though, but they were mostly in his days in Oakland and he’s bounced between pen and rotation unscathed the past couple years. Having a clear relief role probably can only help his durability.

Little Silver? Little Gold?: Well, it might not be cheap. Pomeranz might actually end up the most prized reliever on the market given his performance in Milwaukee, up there with Will Smith and Will Harris and whatever other Will might be out there. MLBTR has him pegged at getting a two-year deal for $16M. The Cubs might be cautious throwing that much money again at only a recently-turned reliever after getting burned by Brandon Morrow. But Pomeranz doesn’t have the disastrous injury history that Morrow did, isn’t coming off throwing every game in the World Series, and quite frankly is a better bet. MLBTR has the Cubs going after Will Harris for about the same price, but fuck that. If you’re going to do that, Pomeranz is 30 and not 35 like Harris is. Harris also added an extra month of work on his frame this season. Harris also is more of a weak-contact guy, and the Cubs need more fire and brimstone out of their pen which they didn’t have last year. Adding Pomeranz would provide you that, along with the Wick Brothers, Chatwood and his upped velocity out of the pen, maybe Alzolay, maybe Duane Underwood (or by some prayer Dillon Maples ever figures it out because I’ll never let go). That’s even before you get to whatever Kimbrel is going to be. That’s a lot of angry coming out of the pen, and I want all the angry out of the pen I can get.

Baseball

Burden In My Hand – White Sox Offseason Wish List: Starling Marte

By Wes French 1657 0

Yesterday we went over the putrid recent history of what the Sox have tried to trot out at RF. I’ve save another 300 or so words and remind you that it’s a BIG NEED.

Nicholas Castellanos has been discussed, and there’s no doubt they’ll be linked with Marcell Ozuna, Kole Calhoun, etc, etc in free agency. But Rick Hahn hasn’t been shy in the past to add to his roster via trade when the opportunities on the free market aren’t to his liking (which is seemingly always since 2015). Could Hahn and KW go to an old trading partner to fill the gaping void in their outfield?

Enter the spiralling Pittsburgh Pirates and Starling Marte. The Buccos had a dreadful second half in 2019 to finish dead last in the NL Central at 69-93, claimed to be keeping manager Clint  Hurdle only to fire him a day after the season, then bounced long time GM Neil Huntington (seemingly out of nowhere) while he was conducting the search for the new manager.

Sure sounds like another rebuild coming in the Steel City, and whoa, hey, they happen to have an affordable OF vet still in his prime (kinda) that makes below market value. Make the call, Rick.

Why Him? Starling Marte is about as steady and rounded as they come, a 31 year old OF with at least 3.0 WAR in six of seven seasons he’s played dating back to 2013. Marte is in the 20/20 club for HR/SB the last two years, and has over 20 steals in seven straight seasons, going over 30 all but twice. So he’s got pop, he can run, and while he doesn’t take many walks he also only strikes out in about 18% of PAs and hasn’t been under .312 BABIP in the last three seasons. Marte could slot in pretty much anywhere in the top half of the Sox lineup and greatly improve this team.

Best of all? unlike his freely available counterparts on the open market, he’s a savvy fielder. Marte has won multiple gold gloves and while he’s had a bit of a decline in the field in 2019 in Center, he’d be able to move over to RF while Engel handles CF until Luis Robert debuts in May. If they wanted/needed him to cover CF he’s also got that versatility. No matter how you look at it, Marte improves the defense.

His contract is another plus, as he’s going to earn an affordable $11.5M this season, with another team option at $12.5M next year ($1M buyout). Castellanos and Ozuna are likely to get something for 4-5 years and around $14M-$18M per year. Marte represents a more valuable commitment, 2 years at $24M and the opportunity to qualify him an offer after that for an arguably similar/better player.

You know Jerry loves him a smaller number, every time.

Why Not Him? That one year he didn’t reach 3.0 WAR was because he was suspended for 80 games for PEDs. He claimed it was an accident, of course, but there remains the threat that he could get that second strike and be banned for a full 162 next time. Probably not too concerning, but it’s there.

2019 also saw Marte’s worst defensive season, by far. He went from 5.2 dWAR in 2018 to -5.7 dWAR in 2019, which on the surface looks pretty damn concerning. He’s clearly still got the speed, though, and based on the the JUMP stat (this is a real thing, I promise) that tracks how well OFs read and react to fly balls he was ranked ninth best in the league. Marte has a strong case for positive regression in 2020 in the field, and I’m willing to chalk this up to the Pirates being weird and playing their OF real shallow because they’re idiots. Fight me. At worst he likely needs to be moved off CF and to a corner, which the Sox can accommodate.

There really isn’t issue on the offensive side, but if we’re picking nits his low walk rate would mean that any kind of decline with the bat would be a sharp one. There isn’t any indicator that will happen, but stranger things and all that. You also might appreciate more than ~20 HR from your RF. He’s right handed, so this doesn’t check off the LH impact bat, but if they fucking sign Grandal already everyone can worry less about handedness.

How Much Is This Free Resort Weekend? Herein lies the biggest problem with the idea of Marte – the Pirates don’t need to deal him, and the latest word is they aren’t looking to. Huntington no longer being in charge is also a bummer, as he’s probably out of a job for all the horrific trades he’s been on the wrong side of lately (Ivan Nova notwithstanding).

Still, there is history between these clubs and any remaining scouts are likely familiar with what the Sox have to peddle. Say Reynaldo Lopez straight up, or if that’s too rich for you maybe a package of Blake Rutherford and Dane Dunning. This shouldn’t cost any of the top youths, and if they ask for Jonathan Stiever I’m helping to pack his bags. The Sox won’t be the only interested party, so they can’t really afford to posture on middle tier prospects if the Pirates get serious about making a deal.

In an offseason with little to get excited about for free agent OFs, Marte represents the Sox best option available – if he actually is, you know, available.