Baseball

Jose Abreu’s New Deal Is Only Curious If You Want To Overanalyze it

By Wes French 1635 0

Jose Abreu and the White Sox did what we all thought they were going to do and agreed to a multi-year contract in lieu of the qualifying offer the Cuban first baseman accepted just over a week ago. With his countryman Yasmani Grandal now in the fold too, Abreu’s signing makes things more complicated than the QO reality of a few days ago.

The three-year, $50M pact was met with a mostly collective “sure. cool. whatever.” Not everyone was willing to congratulate Abreu and look ahead in what’s become a pretty active early off-season for the Sox, though. A vocal sect of media and fans are a bit sour on going to a three-year commitment with the streaky 32 year-old slugger when the team had him for one year, seemingly the preferred position from an analytical standpoint.

But this deal isn’t really about analytics, and if you can’t see the intangibles at play you’re really not even trying. Abreu and Jerry Reinsdorf apparently have a pretty great relationship, because his new paper represents the same kind of loyalty that Jerry shows his front office. Abreu has done a lot to keep the Sox relevant through the failed runs earlier in the decade and the subsequent tear down and rebuild they find themselves in at the end of it. Declining wRC+ be damned, Jerry decided he was going to welcome Jose into the family.

So is this going to be the regret that the un-silent minority thinks it is? Are the leadership and RBI binges, Cuban mentor/ambassador qualities all enough to justify the term/dollars? Is it really even that much in dollars? What does it mean for the future at first base and DH, specifically Andrew Vaughn?

First, the doom-and-gloom outlook. Yes, Abreu hasn’t been the same hitter the last two years that he was in his first four stateside. He dealt with many a nagging injury in 2018, but his 116 wRC+ across 2018-19 is more than 20 points worse than his 2014-17 average of 139. Sure, a continued decline is a possibility for a slugger on the fringes of his prime. But the underlying numbers say his 2019 wasn’t as bad as the surface suggests (highest hard-hit rate in his career, 2nd highest barrel rate) and FanGraphs Steamer projections have him at 32/89/.332 for 2020. Another addition to the lineup via RF could help improve/protect Abreu further as he ages.

The 3/$50M price looks a bit rough, again, on the surface, but I don’t need to delve further into how Abreu is the heart of this team, looked up to by many of the young players set to take the Sox to the next level. Eloy said he’s like a father. Yeah, an $18M cheerleader doesn’t look great in 2022, but the dollars here are all more complicated than they appear as well. Abreu will collect on that $50M, but he won’t see the last payment of it until 2026 with $4M in deferred money. Add to that a $5M signing bonus, and the deal is actually $11M/’20, $16M/’21, $14M/’18 for 3/$41. This could’ve definitely been worse in terms of loyalty deals, and as stated Abreu might justify this with his bat regardless.

So where does that bat fit across these next three seasons? This is where it gets interesting. The Sox don’t lack for players that will push Abreu through this deal, especially with Grandal onboard through ’23. Abreu, Grandal, James McCann, Zack Collins and Yermin Mercedes look like they’re set to create a timeshare between 1B/DH/C in 2020. 2019 third overall pick Andrew Vaughn looks set to push for work with the big club by the end of 2020 but you can argue they’ve got plenty of cover to keep him in minors regardless, barring injury to at least two of those five; and even that would have to coincide with Vaughn forcing the issue in a major way with his bat. Like with Eloy, Robert, and Nick Madrigal the Sox have shown they’re willing to let the kids marinate. Maybe it’s different if they’re pushing for the playoffs, but that’s a bridge to be crossed when it approaches.

So what of the two years beyond next season? Well, while everyone wants Vaughn, or even Gavin Sheets for that matter, to force the issue we all know nothing is certain. So Vaughn can’t just be expected to be mashing in the MLB by the end of 2020. Given the track record, there are many worse options than having Abreu, with the aforementioned contingent, making up the playing time at first base. This gets real muddy if Eloy can’t stay in the field, but with reports that he’s headed to winterball this week to specifically work on his defense (“his goal is to win a Gold Glove in the MLB” says Hector Gomez) he appears seriously committed to improving that aspect of his game and staying in Left.

Basically, you can’t sort out how to deal with Abreu and his time at 1B/DH and who else is pushing for those ABs until they get there. And the Sox absolutely need him in 2020 at the very least, and at first for the most part. Easing him into more DH time helps the team solve its problems there as well, possibly to the point of moving him there full time by the end of this deal. 30 HR and a 116 wRC+ from the DH position in ’21-22 would be the best DH season Sox fans have seen in…half a decade? longer?

Rick Hahn has also been a pretty complimentary of Zack Collins and Yermin Mercedes since the end of the season, going as far as to protect former AAA Rule 5 draftee Mercedes with a 40-man spot after a strong offensive season in Charlotte’s bandbox of a stadium. Collins very well could find himself in another organization if the right(fielder) fit is available via trade. I’d think they look to dangle guys like Collins, Sheets, Blake Rutherford, players they know have tough paths to real roles with this team that could help improve them elsewhere. If you’re banking of using Abreu as a bridge to Vaughn, six years of control on Collins might be better used by another team, but 2020 will also see the addition of a 26th roster spot – conceivably making room for everyone for a year, at least (whether that space is best used for a 1B/DH/C collective is probably a whole other post).

If you want to get crazy maybe Vaughn himself becomes expendable for a Mookie Betts deal, but I’d sooner expect the Bears to win the Super Bowl this season. Vaughn is a part of the plan moving forward, Abreu deal or not. Collins is the guy who just had his path to more at bats immediately affected by the signings last week. Maybe Abreu invited him to the celebration in Miami before he changes teams. It’s the least he could do for making him expendable.

Baseball

Burden In My Hand – White Sox Offseason Wishlist: Anthony Rendon

By Andy Jonathan 1538 0

I told myself I wasn’t gonna fall for it again. I wasn’t going to get excited about anything that Rick Hahn has to say about offseason targets or the money they plan on spending or who might be in play for the Sox to sign as a free agent. Yet here we are, listening to him with reporters at a spa in Arizona talk about potential targets for the offseason and the needs of the White Sox in both the near and long term.

“Part of what we were trying to do and what we were trying to make clear was that the eye level has changed around here, meaning that we are a logical destination for premium talent,”

This isn’t really a surprise on the face of it, as Hahn isn’t going to say anything less than that because every agent in the MLB Universe is listening for anything that could give them an edge in negotiations. The fact that Hahn even mentions “premium talent” implies that they’ll be in on everybody this winter, as pretty much everybody in the top tier the Sox theoretically SHOULD be in on.

Which brings us to today’s target. Someone that I wasn’t going to bother with, but now much like Charlie Brown with Lucy and the football, I’m trying to convince myself that THIS TIME IT WILL BE DIFFERENT. I know deep in my heart it’s gonna get yanked away again, but hope springs eternal. So let’s charge headlong at that football and talk about Anthony Rendon.

Why Him?: Did you see him in the postseason this year? (judging by the ratings up until Game 7 the answer is probably no) The man was a machine, posting a 1.10 OPS during the entire run, with 3 HR and 10 extra base hits to go along with his 15 RBI. Postseason stats not good enough for you? Well he’s been one of the best hitters in the majors the past 3 seasons. Since 2016 he’s been an unstoppable hitting force, 4th best in the entire league.

In that time he’s slashed .294/.384/.528 with 103 dingers and 403 RBIs. The only player higher than him in RBI totals is Nolan Arenado and his home park has the same gravity as the International Space Station. Oh, Rendon has also been worth 24.2 WAR in that time span. The closest White Sox player in that category is newly resigned Jose Abreu with 9.4 WAR. On top of that Rendon is a plus defender at the hot corner, totaling +18 DRS in his career with the Nationals. UZR likes his defense even more, having him at a +32.1 for his entire career.

He also smokes right handed pitching, batting .289 against them in his career, and over .300 in the past few years including a .320 mark this past season with 24 home runs. There’s nothing this guy can’t do at the plate. He’s an instant upgrade for the White Sox batting order, and would most likely hit 3rd after Yoan Moncada and before Jose Abreu or Eloy. If you can’t get excited about that batting order, then you’re most likely suffering from a critical case of being dead.

Why Not Him?: Theoretically there should be nothing in this category. The guy is amazing and instantly makes the team better. In reality? He’s represented by Scott Boras, so there’s the history between him and Jerry Reinsdorf right off the bat. He’s also by far and away the best hitter on the market, so the Sox will have to contend with multiple suitors for his services and we’ve seen how that played out in the past.

He’ll also be entering into his age 30 season, and if you’re super worried about Jerry getting the most value for his investment (I’m not) regression would be a concern. Also he plays 3rd base, so defensively you either move Yoan back to 2B or you ask Rendon if he’s willing to move to 1B from time to time or DH. Or perhaps you try Moncada in RF which kills two birds with one stone, other than the fact that he’s never played in the OF so you’re resigning yourself to Luis Robert basically playing the entire field by himself.

These are all nitpicks, however. None of this should stop Hahn from making Boras an offer that Rendon can’t refuse as he instantly makes the Sox an offensive threat and puts the entire central division on notice that they’re coming for them.

How Much Is This Free Resort Weekend?: Now we come to the rub. Boras has talked openly about trying to get Rendon a deal in the range of what Nolan Arenado got from the Rockies when he signed his extension last season (7 years and $234 million). The comps between the two are similar, with Arenado being a year and a half younger than Rendon.

Rough guess here, but I would think Boras would have a goal set of 7 years and $250 million giving his contract an AAV of around $35 million. Would the Sox be willing to go $8 million more a year then what they offered up to Manny Machado in their failed pursuit last offseason? I think we all know the answer is no, when in reality it shouldn’t matter in the slightest. The team payroll sits at a meager $55 million right now after Abreu accepted his qualifying offer yesterday leaving plenty of space for what Hahn needs to add and extend on the Sox roster.

There should be no reason Rick Hahn and Jerry can’t take a realistic run at Rendon this offseason, and signing him would be a cause for great celebration among the White Sox faithful. It would also show the fanbase that they aren’t fucking around this time and the story of Jerry saying “finishing second pays just as much” is a total myth. Not to mention it certainly would solve a lot of the team’s offensive woes. It makes a lot of sense for the Sox, and would make a whole lot of dollars for Jerry to field the first winning roster in over 7 years. It’s gonna be different this time, right?

Hope springs eternal.

Baseball

Burden In My Hand – White Sox Offseason Wishlist: Chris Archer

By Andy Jonathan 1266 0

I talked earlier about the need for the White Sox to fortify the front end of their rotation earlier by adding Zack Wheeler via free agency. What if the Sox could accomplish the same thing without Rick Hahn having to spend nearly as much of Jerry Reinsdorf’s precious precious gold? I’m gonna propose something pretty wacky and radical, but it fits the Sox modus operandi perfectly, plus it gives Don Cooper his favorite thing in the world: a reclamation project.

Time to turn Chris Archer’s career around.

I know we here at FFUD talk a lot about pilfering from the Pirates stash of available players. Wes already did it with Starling Marte, I’m gonna propose taking Archer, and Adam has a plan to free Josh Bell from PNC Park that you’ll hear about tomorrow. The reason we’ve decided to raid the Pirates is twofold: They’re gonna rebuild again, and they have a history of being dumb. If Hahn can take advantage of both, he absolutely should.

Why Him?: Based solely on his stats from last season, one would think there really isn’t a good reason the Sox should be doing this. By any metric available, Archer had a terrible season, going 3-9 with a 5.19 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP and a ginormous 4.19 BB/9. His FIP was a career-high 5.02 which suggests he earned every bit of that ERA. Taking that into account the Pirates would not be dealing from a position of strength in trade talks, but why would the Sox want him?

This is purely a buy-low scenario for Hahn and the Sox. Archer has been an excellent pitcher in the past, and has pretty nasty strikeout stuff when his accuracy doesn’t abandon him completely. He’s only two years removed from a 10-win, 200+ inning effort with the Rays on a pretty terrible team. He also struck out 249 batters that year, the third season in a row of him having 230+ strikeouts. He also had a tolerable 4.03 ERA, which his 3.40 FIP suggests was aided and abetted by bad D behind him and playing in what essentially is the tip of a concrete condom.

His velocity still sits at almost 95 MPH on his four seam fastball, so there hasn’t been any losses there. The Pirates tried to get him to use a two-seamer last season to predictably terrible results. Once he ditched it and went back to the four-seam, his results in August were much better, as he had a 3.00 ERA in four starts that month. He also struck out 27 batters in those 18 innings before he was lifted with shoulder issues in the 4th start.

This is also the perfect time for the Sox to make a play for him, as his contract jumps up to $9 million from the $6.25 that it was two seasons ago. For a team that (based on what they’ve said publicly) is looking to shed payroll and enter a full rebuild mode $9 million off the books for minor league talent would most likely be fairly attractive. In addition to that, Archer has a team option for $11 million next season with a $250K team buyout, so the Sox wouldn’t be saddled with a shitty contract if Cooper isn’t able to fix him.

Why Not Him?: Archer was shut down at the end of August with shoulder inflammation, which is never good for a pitcher. In addition, it was never discovered what actually caused the inflammation so there is the possibility that there is something structurally wrong with his shoulder that the doctors have not been able to find so far. Also, he did just get his skull caved in for the first four months of the season last year, so there’s a lot of inherent risk in making this move.

How Much Is This Free Resort Weekend?: Here’s where it gets fun, because it’s probably not going to take a ton to pry Archer away from the Pirates. His career worst year pretty much seals that. In addition, the fact that the new GM has a chance to flip a player that the guy who had the job before him gave way too much away for (Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow? Holy shit, that really WAS a dumb fucking move. No wonder the guy got fired). Everybody likes making the guy who had your job before you look like a moron, so he can trade Archer to the Sox for some middling prospects as a salary dump. Perhaps Blake Rutherford and Luis Gonzalez would be enough to wet the whistle of the new Bucs GM, whoever it ends up being.

This is a pretty out-there idea but it fits the way the Sox like to operate. If the dice roll comes up eleven, the Sox could end up with the kind of guy who is a solid #3 starter for them at a very controllable price (which Jerry loves). If they make the deal and Archer is still getting shelled they can cut bait and only be out of $250K next season, which I’m sure they’d just trade to the Rangers with some international bonus pool money anyways. Let’s get weird, people!

Baseball

Burden In My Hand – White Sox Offseason Wishlist: Marcell Ozuna

By Andy Jonathan 1264 0

Here’s another player who fits the Sox needs almost too perfectly, so getting my hopes up that they sign him is basically folly. Let’s talk about him anyways because it’s snowing outside and what else are we gonna do on a Monday morning?

We’ve gone over ad nauseam about the pathetic output the Sox have gotten out of the RF spot the past few years, but here’s one more stat to hammer that point home: In the past 3 seasons, the White Sox are 29th out of 30 for production out of the RF spot in the major leagues.

They’ve accumulated a whopping 1.3 WAR from RF in those three years, and if Daniel Palka wasn’t playing out of his mind in 2018 this number would probably be negative. In comparison, the teams the Sox are chasing in the Central have gotten 6.9 (nice) and 12.0 respectively (Indians and Twins).

Marcell Ozuna, come on down!

Why Him?: Mostly because he’s young(ish) and hits with pop from a premium position of need for the White Sox. Last season was something of a down year for Ozuna, having a .241/.378/.472 slash line with a 110 wRC+ and 2.6 WAR. He also a +2 DRS for the Cards last season, though he split time in left and right field.

So for a right fielder those aren’t the greatest numbers in the world but even with his down season he still hit 29 bombs in a pretty cavernous Busch Stadium. He’s also only 2 years removed from a .312/.376/.548 season where he hit 37 dingers and drove in 134. In addition, he also won a gold glove that season to go along with his AS Game appearance and Silver Slugger Award.

Honestly, if he were to split the difference between last season and his 2017 one those stats alone would be enough to merit a very hard look by the Sox front office. A .275/.370/.495 line would mark the best production for the White Sox RF position since Jermaine Dye was gunning runners down from out there.

He’s also entering his age 29 season, so it’s not like the regression monster will becoming for him anytime soon. Moving from Busch stadium to The Down Arrow should also help his power numbers. With only 330 to the Sox bullpen in left as opposed to the 338 in Busch you would think that’s worth another few home runs. In short, the Sox should rectify their mistake of not attempting to trade/fleece the Marlins a few years ago by signing him to a 5 year deal.

Why Not Him?: There’s always the question of cost, as Ozuna will likely be the most expensive outfielder available on the market this winter. On top of that, the Cardinals extended him a qualifying offer last week, so any attempt to sign him will cost the Sox a draft pick (though that shouldn’t matter in the slightest, but it’s Rick Hahn).

He’s also not amazing in the outfield, but the Sox are going to have to decide if they’d rather hit the shit out of the ball or have a gold glove caliber outfield because unless you’re the Astros you can’t have both. A +25 career DRS score and a +4.7 career UZR/150 rating isn’t bad, and it’s certainly an upgrade over what the Sox had been trotting out there. Having a fully armed and operational Luis Robert patrolling center field would help as well.

Also, his facial hair is very confusing to me. What is going on here?

How Much Is This Free Resort Weekend?: Fangraphs has Ozuna getting a four year deal for at total of around $70 million with an AAV of about $17.5. Assuming the Sox are always swimming upstream in the free agent market due to the ever-present cheapness of their owner I would think a 4 year deal at $19 million per season would be around his asking price.

He’s also not represented by Scott Boras, so there’s another point in the Sox favor as we all know the long an contentious history between him and Jerry Reinsdorf. The Cardinals are said to be interested in bringing Osuna back, which could potentially create a bidding war for his services though this could just be conjecture dropped by his agency to up his price.

With not much OF help available in the free agency pool in 2021 (other than Mookie Betts, and if you think the Sox will be in on signing him, I’ve got a wall in Colorado to sell and build for you) and not much in the way of assistance coming from the farm system anytime soon it would seem that Ozuna is the best option for the Sox via the open market. I’m not really interested in Nick Castellanos (even though Wes did a pretty good job of selling him to me) as he’s not an OF long term and the Sox have plenty of first baseman. Yasiel Puig could be an option, but I don’t think him and Renteria are gonna get along very well. That leaves us with Marcell, and you can do a ton worse if he’s your right fielder for the foreseeable future.

Get it done, Rick.

 

 

Baseball

Burden In My Hand – White Sox Offseason Wish List: Starling Marte

By Wes French 1567 0

Yesterday we went over the putrid recent history of what the Sox have tried to trot out at RF. I’ve save another 300 or so words and remind you that it’s a BIG NEED.

Nicholas Castellanos has been discussed, and there’s no doubt they’ll be linked with Marcell Ozuna, Kole Calhoun, etc, etc in free agency. But Rick Hahn hasn’t been shy in the past to add to his roster via trade when the opportunities on the free market aren’t to his liking (which is seemingly always since 2015). Could Hahn and KW go to an old trading partner to fill the gaping void in their outfield?

Enter the spiralling Pittsburgh Pirates and Starling Marte. The Buccos had a dreadful second half in 2019 to finish dead last in the NL Central at 69-93, claimed to be keeping manager Clint  Hurdle only to fire him a day after the season, then bounced long time GM Neil Huntington (seemingly out of nowhere) while he was conducting the search for the new manager.

Sure sounds like another rebuild coming in the Steel City, and whoa, hey, they happen to have an affordable OF vet still in his prime (kinda) that makes below market value. Make the call, Rick.

Why Him? Starling Marte is about as steady and rounded as they come, a 31 year old OF with at least 3.0 WAR in six of seven seasons he’s played dating back to 2013. Marte is in the 20/20 club for HR/SB the last two years, and has over 20 steals in seven straight seasons, going over 30 all but twice. So he’s got pop, he can run, and while he doesn’t take many walks he also only strikes out in about 18% of PAs and hasn’t been under .312 BABIP in the last three seasons. Marte could slot in pretty much anywhere in the top half of the Sox lineup and greatly improve this team.

Best of all? unlike his freely available counterparts on the open market, he’s a savvy fielder. Marte has won multiple gold gloves and while he’s had a bit of a decline in the field in 2019 in Center, he’d be able to move over to RF while Engel handles CF until Luis Robert debuts in May. If they wanted/needed him to cover CF he’s also got that versatility. No matter how you look at it, Marte improves the defense.

His contract is another plus, as he’s going to earn an affordable $11.5M this season, with another team option at $12.5M next year ($1M buyout). Castellanos and Ozuna are likely to get something for 4-5 years and around $14M-$18M per year. Marte represents a more valuable commitment, 2 years at $24M and the opportunity to qualify him an offer after that for an arguably similar/better player.

You know Jerry loves him a smaller number, every time.

Why Not Him? That one year he didn’t reach 3.0 WAR was because he was suspended for 80 games for PEDs. He claimed it was an accident, of course, but there remains the threat that he could get that second strike and be banned for a full 162 next time. Probably not too concerning, but it’s there.

2019 also saw Marte’s worst defensive season, by far. He went from 5.2 dWAR in 2018 to -5.7 dWAR in 2019, which on the surface looks pretty damn concerning. He’s clearly still got the speed, though, and based on the the JUMP stat (this is a real thing, I promise) that tracks how well OFs read and react to fly balls he was ranked ninth best in the league. Marte has a strong case for positive regression in 2020 in the field, and I’m willing to chalk this up to the Pirates being weird and playing their OF real shallow because they’re idiots. Fight me. At worst he likely needs to be moved off CF and to a corner, which the Sox can accommodate.

There really isn’t issue on the offensive side, but if we’re picking nits his low walk rate would mean that any kind of decline with the bat would be a sharp one. There isn’t any indicator that will happen, but stranger things and all that. You also might appreciate more than ~20 HR from your RF. He’s right handed, so this doesn’t check off the LH impact bat, but if they fucking sign Grandal already everyone can worry less about handedness.

How Much Is This Free Resort Weekend? Herein lies the biggest problem with the idea of Marte – the Pirates don’t need to deal him, and the latest word is they aren’t looking to. Huntington no longer being in charge is also a bummer, as he’s probably out of a job for all the horrific trades he’s been on the wrong side of lately (Ivan Nova notwithstanding).

Still, there is history between these clubs and any remaining scouts are likely familiar with what the Sox have to peddle. Say Reynaldo Lopez straight up, or if that’s too rich for you maybe a package of Blake Rutherford and Dane Dunning. This shouldn’t cost any of the top youths, and if they ask for Jonathan Stiever I’m helping to pack his bags. The Sox won’t be the only interested party, so they can’t really afford to posture on middle tier prospects if the Pirates get serious about making a deal.

In an offseason with little to get excited about for free agent OFs, Marte represents the Sox best option available – if he actually is, you know, available.

Baseball

Burden In My Hand – White Sox Offseason Wish List: Nick Castellanos

By Wes French 1641 0

Right field has been a black hole of SUCK on the Southside going on, oh, a decade? Magglio Ordonez and Jermaine Dye are the last great players to man the position for the White Sox, and the ineptitude of management to fill the O-E-O/WS MVP sized hole is a bit jarring. Yes, dead last in the entire MLB in 2019 in OPS jarring. The likes of Carlos Quentin, Avi Garcia, and Adam Eaton were passable if unspectacular in stints over the years, but the Sox have also trotted out the likes of Jason Coats, Willy Garcia, Andruw Jones (the ol’ KW past his prime special!), Brent Lillibridge, Rymer Liriano, Alex Rios, Moises Sierra, Michael Taylor, Blake Tekotte, Trayce Thompson and Dayan Viciedo since Dye hung em up in 2009. Folks,,,,, that’s not great!

John Jay was brought in as part of the “recruitment” of Manny Machado last offseason and thought to be the everyday right fielder, but injury kept him out a majority of the year. The cast of characters used to fill in were all way, way under-qualified for every day MLB duty – Ryan Cordell, Charlie Tilson and Daniel Palka all saw far more at bats than any competent team would dare give them and they responded with that league worst performance at the position at the dish. The defense was also meh at best, but with a suspect free agent class the Sox don’t really have the current lineup to hide a defensive wizard they get no offensive production from (otherwise they’d just stick Robert in RF and let Adam Engel patrol CF, but alas).

So who out there is available, plays RF (even barely), can get on base, park a few baseballs into the Rate bullpens and would actually be willing to take Rick Hahn’s checks? Dear reader, you already know him, or got a small taste of him after last year’s deadline.

Nicholas Castellanos, come one down!

Why Him? Castellanos can hit a bit, as the Sox know all too well from being the victim of his bat for almost six years as he came along in Detroit. His 2019 is a little misleading as his high average (.321) helped him to 16 homers and 36 RBI in just 51 games after a trade to the Cubs. That comes out to a scorching 154 wRC+. Prior to the trade, though, he carried just 11 homers and 37 RBI on a .273/.328/.462 line for a wRC+ of 105 in 100 games.

This does help to give him two straight years over 121 wRC+ and that makes him exponentially better than any Sox RF in 2019. He’s also gone .337 and .354 the last two seasons in OBP while averaging 25 homers and 81 XBH, and if he can continue that trend the White Sox probably wouldn’t care if he just hung out in the Goose Island section or had a beer with the #108 guys every half inning.

He’s also only 28, making him pretty young to be a free agent. He won’t come with a QO compensation penalty. Since JD Martinez isn’t available, Castellanos also represents a chance to sign an impact bat this offseason, deal with the defense for a year or two, and plan to use him at DH/LF with Eloy down the road and develop or sign your next RF later. Maybe that plan sees them sign Edwin Encarnacion on a Nelson Cruz-like one year pact (OR SIGN GRANDAL ALREADY LIKE AJ SAID) and just like that you’ve got some instant impact offensive upgrades to a team that sorely needs it.

One other plus – signing him would mean he can’t kill the Sox anymore (or maybe he’d find fun ways to ruin them from within…). This is some recency bias, but since 2018 Castellanos carries 7 HR/22 RBI/.413 OBP/1.065 OPS(!) in 28 games against the Sox, good for a wRC+ of about 185, or otherworldly. Small sample size and all that, but fuckin’ a does he MURDER White Sox pitching of late.

Why Not Him? Oh, that “defense”. Castellanos debuted as a third baseman and Detroit was all too generous to let him try and be that for four seasons while they lost a million games. He made the move to right field in 2018 and is the worst defensive RF in that time, posting -28 DRS (defensive runs saved) and a -17.6 UZR. I don’t know if that all actually makes him the worst RF since 2018, but being responsible for 28 runs scored against seems really bad.

If you want some kind of silver lining, Castellanos did actually improve by 10 full runs in DRS over 2018, and by 8+ points on his UZR, giving him a more palatable -9 DRS/-4.4 UZR in 2019. Still not good by any metric, but not comically bad. He might even be improving, and maybe he gets to a point where he’s league average and look at that I just talked us into Nick Castellanos, league average RF for the Chicago White Sox by 2021.

Honestly, if you sign Castellanos and you already have Eloy Jimenez being the ungraceful elk that he is in LF, you probably need to be ready to take him out of the field within a year or two. So the knock is, will he hit well enough to cover occasionally killing you in the field. And if you’re already looking at re-signing Jose Abreu and you’ve got Gavin Sheets and Andrew Vaughn on deck…is this really the best way to allocate funds/roster space?

How Much Is This Free Resort Weekend? MLBTR comes in with an estimate of 4/$58M and Fangraphs is in agreement with a 4/$56M estimate of their own. Unless some wild market creates itself out of nothing for lil Nicky here I can’t really see him getting more than 4/50, possibly even having to settle for something like 2/25 or 3/35 and a few option years. The bat has enough juice to get him a multi-year pact, sure, but that defense is brutally awful and the game is no longer kind to players of his abilities. Damned kids and their analytics. Without 30+ annual HR potential or a near .400 OBP, there just isn’t any one tool that really carries the weight to justify giving Castellanos that much term, so you’re really banking on his being younger than the rest of the FA OFs and hoping that defense is really improving and the 2018/Cubs version of the bat is the one you’re buying. Whole lotta optimism in there.

The Sox have already been reported to have interest, which probably doesn’t need to be read much into as they should have interest in any OF available via trade or free agency this winter. They’d probably be wise to explore other options and make Castellanos a plan B, waiting out the diminishing market for his type of player to mitigate the commitment for such a walking red flag.

Now that I’ve thoroughly fleshed out that I’m not really on board with a run at him, I have to admit that if the Sox do end up with Castellanos it will be a massive upgrade over the trash heap of career minor leaguers and Machado friends and family that Hahn tried to float by the masses last year. It could absolutely be worse, but I’d hope they explore a few more avenues or wait to see how many other teams are really falling over each other to add what might just be a slightly over league average DH to play everyday RF.

Baseball

Burden In My Hand – White Sox Offseason Wishlist: Zack Wheeler

By Andy Jonathan 1463 0

The White Sox need another starter, perhaps even two. The immanent return of Michael Kopech should satisfy one of those needs, but successfully returning from Tommy John surgery is no sure thing. In addition to that, you can almost guarantee that his innings are going to have a cap on them, as the most he’s ever thrown in a season is the 140 he tossed before his elbow went “TWANG” in 2018.

So Kopech fills in for Ivan Nova, but that still leaves the Black Hole of Sadness that is the Sox 5th starter. Carlos Rodon won’t be back until August at the earliest, and he faces the same questions Kopech does. Reynaldo Lopez hasn’t cemented his spot in the rotation of The Future™ as of yet, either. Besides, you can never have too much starting pitching (or so I’m told).

So that brings us to the next person on the White Sox offseason shopping list. He’s a front line starter who comes with some risk attached but (other than Gerrit Cole) is the youngest available free agent starter on the market. I of course speak of Zack Wheeler.

Why Him?: First off like I said above, he’s the youngest starting pitcher available on the market this winter that the Sox would realistically (as much as I want Cole or Strasburg) pursue. He has that first round draft pick pedigree that Rick Hahn loves so much (though to be fair that’s a hangup of most GMs) and would immediately make the Sox starting rotation a thing to be feared.

He’s had an ERA of under 4.00 every year but 2017 (when he missed an extended period of time due to various maladies), has a 22.8% K rate, an 8.5% BB rate and has been a 4+ WAR player the last two seasons.

His fastball sits in the upper 90s with movement, and he has a nasty slider that he throws in the low 90s for his strikeout pitch. He also has a plus curveball and an average changeup that he doesn’t throw a whole lot in the zone. He also has a 44% ground ball ratio compared to a 32.5% fly ball that would play well at The Down Arrow.

Him lining up with Giolito, Kopech, Cease and Lopez gives you four starters that will rack up strikeouts at a hilarious pace, and would hopefully take some of the onus off the bullpen to have to eat up so many innings. Plus with him just entering his age 30 season, the threat of a downturn in velocity seems pretty low.

Why Not Him?: First and foremost, injuries. Wheeler has had issues staying healthy, as he’s never broken 200 innings in his career. In 2015 he had Tommy John surgery to repair a torn UCL which cost him all of the 2016 season. In 2017 he got tendinitis in his bicep which cost him some time on the IL, then after than he had a stress reaction in his right arm (a stress reaction is basically a broken bone that hasn’t totally broken. I had to google it.) which resulted in him being shut down in August. He also missed time this past season with a shoulder impingement.

In addition to the injury risk, he’s another righty which with Carlos Rodon out would make the current starting rotation entirely right handed. In and of itself this is not a terrible thing, as if the stuff is good then the results will be good. Still it’s not the worst thing in the world to be able to vary the handedness of your starters from time to time. Especially when the Indians and their bevy of left handed mashers is in your division.

He was also issued a qualifying offer from the Mets this last week, so any attempt to sign him after he turns it down results in the Sox sending a 2nd round draft pick to NY. Thus far, Rick Hahn has been loath to part with ANY of his draft picks…but the time for the Sox hoarding them is well past.

How Much Is This Free Resort Weekend?: FanGraphs has Wheeler looking at a four-year deal with about an $18 million AAV running at a grand total of just under $80 million total. This contract would blow past the $68 million the Sox gave Jose Abreu as the highest ever issued by the team (pathetic). Being that the Sox are most likely going to have to overpay due to the fact that the South Side isn’t currently the mecca for free agents the Northside is, I would think four years and $85 million might be enough to get Wheeler in a Sox jersey.

If the free agent market is slow enough, his injury history could potentially suppress that number even further. Either way, the $85 million would probably be the cap that Rick Hahn would set for himself, especially with all the other needs (DH, RF, 2B potentially) to be filled out in addition to starting pitching. I’m a big fan of Wheeler, and I think he’d fit in nicely here. It’s a bit of a stretch, as I see the Yankees becoming a problem if they miss out on Gerrit Cole and I don’t see Hahn outbidding them, like, ever. If the dominoes fall the right way however, Wheeler could be another pillar of an awesome pitching staff.

 

 

 

Baseball Everything Else

Burden In My Hand – White Sox Offseason Wishlist: Yasmani Grandal

By Andy Jonathan 1567 0

Now begins the season outside of the season, and potentially the most important one in the tenure of Rick Hahn’s career as general manager of the White Sox. With the team looking poised to possibly contend in 2020, Hahn must now shift gears. Trading away players like Chris Sale is easy. Everybody wants a Cy Young-caliber ace who strikes out 1.5 people per inning. Now Hahn has come full circle, as he was once the seller now he must be the buyer (Darth Vader quote goes here).

As with anything involving Jerry Reinsdorf and the Sox front office the first, last, and only question will be about money. Is he willing to spend it? The implication after the failed pursuit of Manny Machado was that THE MONEY WILL BE SPENT, most likely in ways that our mere fan-brains could not possibly understand. Now it’s time for them to live up to that bold declaration by rolling down the MLB equivalent of Rodeo Drive and making it rain.

What do the Sox really need? Well based on every metric that counts any type of offensive production, the Sox were the god awful-est at the DH position and any outfield spot where Eloy Jimenez is not currently standing, waving at his mom.

On top of that, other than Yoan Moncada and Zack Collins (who is an unfinished product in and of himself) the Sox are very light hitting from the left side of the plate. So who fits the bill?

Enter: Yasmani Grandal

Why Him?: Because he checks almost all the boxes above, and some that I didn’t even mention. Grandal is a switch hitting catcher who hit 17 dingers from the left side of the plate last year. He also tagged 11 of them from the right side, so it’s not a situation like Yoan has where all his pop comes from a single half of the plate. In addition to that, he’s an excellent pitch framer, 6th best overall in the league for any catcher who caught more than 1700 pitches. In the “Runs From Extra Strikes” category (which converts strikes to runs saved on a .125 run/strike basis, and includes park and pitcher adjustments according to Statcast) he’s the 3rd best in the league (the fact that Tyler Flowers has become one of the top framing catchers in the league will not be discussed here.) In addition, while he only had a DRS score of +1 last season, the previous 3 went +9, +17 and +13.

Despite James McCann‘s assistance with turning around the career of Lucas Giolito, he was dead last in framing last year which cost the White Sox 16 runs. Ask Reynaldo Lopez or Dylan Covey (if you can get through to him in his padded room where he mutters “sinker didn’t sink” to himself over and over) what they could’ve done with a few more strike calls going their way last season.

He also can play 1B and DH, which would result in a combo of Jose Abreu, Zack Collins and Grandal at DH at any point in the season which would instantly provide the best output at that position since before Adam Dunn shuffled off into the sunset. Yes, I am operating under the assumption that Jose will be back next season because duh. Did I mention he hits the shit out of the ball?

Why Not Him? Age maybe? He’s entering his 30th year on the planet this season, so by the time his deal is up he will most likely be 35ish? I dunno, this signing makes far too much sense for the Sox to pull it off. Can’t wait for the news media to interview Kenny Williams at spring training in his Mercedes golf cart and have him tell us all if he took off his solid gold Oakley sunglasses you’d see just how shocked he was. /wanking motion

How Much Is This Free Resort Weekend? Ahhh to the meat of the problem for the Sox: he’s not going to work for free. Last offseason he shot down an offer from the Mets (always a wise plan) for four years, $60 million and settled on a one year “prove it” deal with the Brewers. He then proceeded to mash almost 30 home runs with 80 RBI and was worth 5.2 WAR.

I would guess the bidding would start around $22 million for at least four years, and that’s the base. Grandal bet on himself last season and put up when some others thought he was crazy. The Sox had interest in him last year, and with a majority of the stuff they need contained in one human being Rick Hahn needs to find a way to get this done. Offer him four years, $90 million with a team option for a 5th at $25 million/or a $3 million buyout. I would think that would be enough to seal this deal, because I want to see what Giolito and Lopez can do with all those extra strikes Grandal can frame for them. Not to mention the two starting pitchers Hahn should sign this offseason (don’t worry, they’re next).

Baseball

Royals Spotlight: They Call Him Mr. Glass

By Andy Jonathan 1377 0

Word broke a few weeks ago that longtime Royals owner David Glass would be selling the team to an ownership group lead by Kansas City businessman (and Cleveland Indians vice chairman) John Sherman. What was particularly staggering about this news was the fact that Glass would be selling the team for a tidy $900 million dollar profit. Glass originally bought the team just before the start of the 2000 season for $96 million dollars. The sale (if finalized and approved by MLB ownership) would be for over a billion dollars. That number in and of itself is pretty ginormous, but when you factor in how the Royals consistently pleaded poor during most off-season free agent periods it becomes even more obnoxious. A brief glance at where the Royals fall in reference to the rest of the league in payroll since Glass took over the team in 2000 shows that in those 20 years the team has averaged 21.5th in the league in payroll. They’ve never been higher than 15th in the league, and in the bottom 1/3rd 15 out of the 20 years. Yet in that time, the biggest contract they’ve handed out was to Alex Gordon this year, a whopping 20 million dollars. In comparison, the Red Sox are paying one of the Royals former players (David Price) 31 million. The now suddenly financially conscious New York Yankees still have 4 players on their team making more than Gordon, and the usually spendthrift Cardinals have two (and Dexter Fowler making 17 million).

All of this adds up to yet another MLB owner who has purchased a team not because he loves the game of baseball, but because it’s a profitable investment for him. Glass has made plenty of money in his career as a CEO of Walmart way before he bought the Royals for a song. Now he’s flipping the team like a shitty house in Skokie because he’s made 10X the profit on a less than $100 million dollar investment. You don’t have to look very far to see how actual Royals fans (and there are only about 34 of them left) feel about the deal. BeyondTheBoxScore did a pretty in-depth review of what Glass actually provided the team in his almost 20 years of ownership. Other than a one time luck out of a World Series win, it’s not a whole lot. In fact, Glass’ ownership of the team (other than the WS win) is a pretty impressive display of how an owner can come in and treat an MLB team like an asset, then flip it like Two Face’s coin in Batman and sell it to someone that gives a shit about the sport.

Patrick Brennan said it best as a guest writer for Beyond The Box Score in the article about the sale of the team:

“As a Royals fan, I took this news as nothing short of fantastic. I can’t sit here and tell you all the things I know about John Sherman, because I know very little. If he ends up buying the Royals, I don’t know how much he’ll spend, I don’t know what changes he’ll make, and I don’t know how he’ll run the organization. But he’s succeeding an owner that a) was very scarcely involved with the Royals and Kansas City, b) slashed payroll constantly, c) spent very little, even though he’s likely to turn a $96 million investment into over a billion dollars, and d) ran a terrible organization for 95 percent of his tenure.”

Here’s where it becomes more important to Sox fans. Does that sound like anyone you know? Does that blueprint seem pretty familiar to you? Granted, I’d never trade 2005 for any pile of magic beans, but it’s a pretty common refrain throughout the league. You have your top 10 teams who spend the money that’s required to make you team competitive, then you have the bottom 2/3 of the league that is more concerned about wringing as much value out of underpaid young talent as you possibly can before you let them hit the bricks in free agency.

Basically the entire AL Central falls into this category. When was the last time you saw any of the 5 teams in this division spend big money on a free agent? The Tigers and Miguel Cabrera are the only ones that come to mind. Even the Sox with Jose Abreu didn’t break the bank, as they spent 68 million on the man as the most highly paid player in team history. Other than Cabrera and maybe Alex Gordon the AL Central isn’t exactly breaking the bank. Yet we are expected to sit here and listen to the owners cry poor after getting loads of money off the newest TV deal. Combine that with the 900X investment David Glass made off his purchase of the Royals and I start rooting more and more for the inevitable lockout 18 months from now. Do I think this is important? Absolutely, as the White Sox enter the most critical phase of their rebuild after shitting the bed on potential game changing free agents like Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. Now the rumor mill churns about JD Martinez opting out of the deal he has in Boston. As much as I’d like to see the Sox sign him to a deal and piss off both the Boston AND Detroit fanbases (The legendary Double Play), I find it super hard to believe that Sox ownership cares about anything more about the bottom line of the organization’s value on the open market.

 

But hey, at least the Rick Hahn brought up Dylan Covey to entertain us for the rest of the season…

 

ITS SUCH GOOD SHIT.

 

Baseball

The JD Martinez Winds Begin To Howl

By Sam Fels 1842 0

Started at the bottom:

And now we’re here:

Clearly, this is something that’s buzzing inside the industry, though of those names only Rosenthal is someone I’d attach any weight to. Because Alex Rodriguez can’t spell anything without looking in a mirror and Steve Phillips puts white-out in his coffee. Still, this is something that’s clearly going to pop up more as the offseason hits.

Now most Sox fans I know or watch would tell you this is just a great way to be disappointed again, as the Pale Hose either lowball Martinez, hoping to get a deal on one of the league’s best hitters, or are just used as leverage to squeeze more money and years out of the Carmines. And Martinez opting out could simply be the latter, though in this free agency environment, that can be a very risky play. How Dave Dombrowski’s firing plays into this is a question, as well as perhaps Fenway Sports Group’s desire to get away from the luxury tax (and as a Liverpool supporter, even this frightens me).

Still, it’s obvious the Sox are going to need a consistent, heavy bat in the lineup. While Eloy and Robert promise a lot, you don’t really know what you’ll get through a full season yet. Tim Anderson might win a batting title, but he doesn’t help the OBP problem the Sox have. Zack Collins could help, but what his status and position on this team is remains up in the air.

And Martinez rakes. He hasn’t quite matched the heights of last season, though that can almost all be attributed to a lowering BABIP from a simply bonkers .375 of last year. He’s still hitting the ball as hard, and he’s striking out even less. He would immediately be the best hitter on the White Sox, and by some distance, no matter what you think Robert becomes or Eloy develops.

Still, it’s not perfectly smooth of a fit. Martinez has to DH, because playing him in right any more than once a month is a public hazard. And if you have him in right and Eloy in left, you’re going to put Robert in a Rascal by July.

That seems simple enough. The Sox haven’t really had a DH all season, or this decade, so bang boom there you go. Except that shoves Jose Abreu out to first every day, and though he might like that, it’s not necessarily beneficial. Abreu has really turned it up of late, and if there’s one spot to have a defensive blind spot it’s first base. Still, he feels like a DH, and if the James McCann love is real for another season, Collins’s greater OBP skills would be welcomed at first. Letting Abreu walk wouldn’t be a very popular move among fans and players, but an upgrade of Martinez helps with that. Also, Martinez and Abreu are the same age. Supposedly.

Second, Martinez has four years left on his deal with Boston, and he would probably want to improve upon that by opting out. But are you really going to hand Martinez more than the $21M he’s due per year past his 36th birthday? That seems a risk. And if you’re not going to give him more years than he’s already got, you’re going to have to give him significantly more dollars than he’s already got. That sound like a Reinsdorf move? Please put up a camera of him signing off on a $30M a year salary. I want to see that face.

As for Martinez, as Rosenthal points out, he might be better off waiting when there are 15 more DH spots available in the NL in the coming years. Right now, where would be landing spots for him? You can throw out a handful of teams due to rebuilding phases/cheapness, like Seattle, Baltimore, Kansas City, Detroit. Cleveland isn’t spending that cash, though they have the need. Would Toronto expedite their rebuild with this? Unlikely. The Twins have Nelson Cruz. The Angels have Shohei Ohtani, pitching or no. He’d be a perfect Athletic, but that’s not happening. The Yankees are out…maybe. Houston doesn’t have a need.

The Sox would be bidding against a very limited field, though that could be yet another reason he decides to just stay put.

Still, the mind reels at a lineup with an established Moncada and Anderson, a Jimenez after taking a step, Abreu, a rookie Robert, and Martinez. He would even out the volatility of depending on merely young hitters. Lessens the pressure on everyone. It makes total sense.

Which is probably why it won’t happen.