It’s time once again for our version of the Blackhawks hot-or-not:
The Dizzying Highs
Jonathan Toews: With a hat trick plus two assists yesterday, we’d be remiss if we DIDN’T put Toews in the Dizzying Highs. I can’t think of a performance more worthy of the name than a five-point game, and one that was against the current Stanley Cup champions no less, even if they were still drunk from the night before. Beyond just yesterday, though, Toews has been playing consistently well—obviously for the season as a whole but in particular the last week or so, other than the shit-fest at Madison Square Garden the other night. He had a point in each of the three games prior to that. He’s already surpassed his point total for last year and he’s tied his total for 2016-17. Yes, his possession numbers are a little questionable still (50.7 CF%, 1.9 CF% Rel), but shit, the guy had a hat trick and five total points yesterday.
Patrick Kane: Kane gets an honorable mention here this week because he too had five points against the Capitols yesterday and the little shit has been playing out of his mind. Again.
The Terrifying Lows
Carl Dahlstrom: OK, Dahlstrom is inexperienced and getting absolutely buried with his zone starts: 28.75% offensive zone starts as of today, per Natural Stat Trick. However, he’s also playing with one of the 2.5 competent defensemen the Hawks have right now, and he’s sucked out loud for a couple weeks, after what had been a promising start that now just screams adrenaline-and-good-luck. We can parse the stats any way we want and get a muddled answer: His GF% is 54, but they give up more scoring chances when he’s on the ice (47 SCF%). On top of that, the Hawks give up a shitload more high-danger chances than what they attempt when Dahlstrom is out there—his High-Danger Chances For percentage is a woeful 38.5%. But my immediate issue is not just numbers (although I am angry at those too), but it’s how doltish he’s played lately, i.e., against the Rangers last week, and the Knights a few days before that. He’s either standing around watching opponents score, or he’s in the wrong position, or he’s chasing helplessly, or he’s leaving his man open. I realize there are no good answers with this defense, but whatever hope there was around Dahlstrom is fading fast.
Duncan Keith: Keith gets an honorable mention here this week because his turnover to Chris Kreider in the Rangers game last week was so abominable, I’m still not over it.
The Creamy Middles
Collin Delia: Let it be known that I don’t like listing the same guy in the same part of this post two weeks in a row (and I’m now doing it twice in this one). But like or not Delia and the goaltending situation as a whole is an unavoidable point of emphasis so I don’t want to ignore it simply for format’s sake. Anyway, you know we’re fans of Delia around these parts, but yesterday he had a mix of highlight-reel saves and soft goals that should never have happened. Out of his last six starts, Delia has given up three or more goals in five of them. That’s troubling. However, his save percentage is still .923%, so you know a lot of this is the defense hanging him out to dry (see: Dahlstrom in the aforementioned Vegas game). In those six previous starts, the lowest number of shots he faced was 32, and the highest was 50. Good lord. So Delia is keeping them in games and basically has one arm tied behind his back thanks to the putrid blue line, yet he’s still undeniably coming down to earth after an insane start.
Brandon Saad: Saad gets an honorable mention here because his goal against the Caps yesterday was a thing of beauty, and he’s had three goals in as many games. He still fucks.
Well, that was refreshing. The Hawks finally showed up for a “big” game, if they still count as such, and played extremely well as they shitpumped the Capitals all day, save for a quick stretch in the third period where they let it get interesting. Let’s do the bullets:
– Jonathan Toews continued the Fuck You Tour today with a five point game that included a hat trick. It’s starting to feel more and more like he should just be doing this every game, even though I know it’s not that simple. But when he takes over a game, it’s something special to behold, really. His final possession numbers weren’t phenomenal with a 48.65 CF%, but that was likely brought down by the dominance Washington showed in the third period (which was largely score effects) and the fact that Toews was playing a hell of a lot in that period. Plus, the Hawks had a 4-0 advantage on goals at 5v5 with him on the ice. His numbers where it mattered most were damn good and that’s all I care about.
– To go along with that killer game from Toews was another monster performance by Patrick Kane, who matched Toews with a five point game of his own. He continued what has been one of his best seasons in the NHL and maybe the best year of his career in the process, and that brought me to a good but very sad realization – the Hawks’ blueline being shitty is wasting an all-time year from this duo. I’ll never take the glory years for granted, but given that these two are going off in this way, this really should have been another glory year. Damn.
– I’ve only watched two games of the Slater Koekkoek era and I’m already sick of it. I don’t hate the move for him at all, because dropping Jan Rutta and moving up the draft is nothing to complain about. Also, he does bring some speed that at least fits more of what Coach Cool Youth Pastor is trying to do. But even with that, the guy sucks ass. I haven’t seen him doing anything good yet and he was practically sitting on top of Collin Delia on the Capitals 5th goal. There was another breakdown in the defense along the way but it was still rough from him. Add in that he played over Henri Jokiharju, who inarguably needs to be in the lineup every game, and I’m tired of it already. Fucking sick of it. Get rid of it.
– Delia meanwhile had a game that reminded me a lot of Mitchell Trubisky, in a weird way. He made the big plays, performed well in the most important moments, but he still had some major screwups on the simple shit. The first two Washington goals were absolutely inexcusable, but then he continued to make the crazy saves that he had no business on. It was weird. But if he, like Trubisky, starts fixing that small shit, there’s definitely something there – more for Trubisky than Delia, but still (and no I am not doing well with Bears season being over.
There’s really no denying it after this game: the Hawks are definitively the league’s bottom feeders. Yes, the Kings technically have fewer points (by one) but they also have two games in hand on the Hawks. Don’t kid yourself–they’re awful. Let’s just get to it:
– The Hawks played well for about the first four minutes of the game. After that, it was pretty much straight downhill. By the time that Brandon Saad scored the first goal on the power play around five minutes in, the Hawks had been dominating possession and showed good speed. That power play came just as they were losing their grip on things, and Saad took advantage of Henrik Lundqvist being too twitchy and leaving a wide open goal. But it was all Rangers after that, and even though the Hawks finished that period leading in possession (58.6 CF%), they still gave up goals to both Chytil and Zuccarello, and managed to be losing at the end of the period despite leading not only in possession but shots too.
– Did I mention it got worse after that? In the second period the Hawks were basically useless, with the low point coming when Duncan Keith carelessly handled a shitty pass from Saad, and moved the puck not away from the goal, not into the corner or to the boards, but directly into the middle of the slot where Chris Kreider calmly scored point blank on Delia. It was equal parts lazy and stupid. Technically the goal was unassisted—if only that were true. Keith should have had the primary assist on that one.
– In general it was a rough night for the defense (SHOCKING). Keith’s fuck-up was the worst example, but the Gustafsson-Jokiharju pairing had its problems too. They ended above water in possession but in the first period Gustafsson got squashed like a bug and with the resulting turnover, Filip Chytil de-pantsed Jokiharju for the first goal. Joker was on his off side at that point, basically out of necessity, but that should say something to Coach Cool Youth Pastor next time he thinks about flipping Jokiharju as he did when he paired him with Nachos the other night. Murphy and Dahlstrom were also chasing and watching as Zuccarello scored a few minutes later. It was team effort to suck tonight.
– On that note, Jonathan Toews took a leadership role at sucking. He had a wide open net at the end of the third when they had the extra attacker out, could have tied the game, and didn’t even hit the net. It made Kahun’s literal last-second goal even more painful since it would have been a game-winner.
– They got two more power play goals tonight, so yes it’s a relief that’s still happening. But unfortunately the movement wasn’t what we’ve been seeing lately, and had the Hawks been playing a good team, they probably wouldn’t have scored at least one of those goals.
– After coming out of the first period behind, and losing whatever momentum or give-a-shit-ness that they had, the Hawks were basically out of fucks to give entirely. They were bad in the second period but even worse in the third, managing only six shots and a 40 CF%. In a way I can’t blame them because it’s demoralizing to suck all the time. But even when they’ve sucked before they’ve at least been entertaining (the Flames game, the Predators game). Getting beat by a fellow crap team really took it out of them I guess.
There are 33 games left to go guys…wow, that sounds depressing when I say it out loud. Fortunately just a couple more until the All-Star break? Onward and upward?
It’s time once again for the good, the bad, and the mildly entertaining in all things Blackhawks. This has been a rather relentless part of the schedule, and even though the Hawks will see New Jersey and New York for what may be a bit of a respite, they still have four more games before the All-Star break. Let’s see where we’re at as we get to the end of this death march through January:
The Dizzying Highs
Alex DeBrincat: Sounding a little like a broken record here but in the best way possible. Top Cat has been a force lately, and lord knows we need all the help we can get. He scored twice last night and has five goals in the last week. He’s a fixture on the first power play unit, and he’s a huge part of why the man advantage has actually been, well, advantageous lately (five pp goals since right before Christmas). His shooting percentage is 17.2 right now, and while you’d expect that to decline a little, last season he ended with a 15.5, so there’s every reason to expect he can sorta keep this up. Let’s fucking hope so.
Patrick Kane: You know he’s good, we know he’s good. Sam wrote about the year Garbage Dick is having so I won’t re-hash it here, but in the last week and a half he’s racked up 10 points, including a goal and an assist last night, and he had a playmaker a week back, just for good measure.
The Terrifying Lows
Artem Anisimov. You know he sucks, we know he sucks. Apparently everyone does and yet there he still is on the second line. Despite starting nearly 60% of the time in the offensive zone, and despite playing on a line with one of the best players in the game having one of his best years, ‘ole Wide Dick is underwater in possession (48.9 CF%) and makes multiple dumb mistakes every game that cost his line quality chances. I’ve lost count of the times I make a note during a game about him fumbling a pass, losing a puck in his feet, and basically just standing there staring at things. He’s officially reached “glacial” as the speed at which he skates, and overall is a complete waste of space while also being doubly annoying as the moron not helping them take advantage of Kane’s current performance, and taking what should be Alex DeBrincat’s spot. I know it’s not Arty himself making that decision, but as the useless oaf inexplicably placed there, he’s going to face some wrath.
The Creamy Middles
Collin Delia. I honestly want to put him in the Dizzying Highs really just as a mark of appreciation for what this guy’s putting up with, but let’s be honest about the win/loss column lately. Still, three of his four recent losses came in OT which is stupid anyway, and his play is a big reason why they even made it to those overtimes (particularly against the Flames last week) in the first place. He’s got a .932 SV% with THIS defense in front of him, and with Jokiharju not being around the last couple weeks they had all of about 2.5 functioning defensemen. Delia’s been good.
Jonathan Toews. It’s been a little while since Toews has made the Sugar Pile and I guess we’ve just accepted that he’s good again and taken it as a given. He’s got five points in his last five games, including a gorgeous short-handed goal against the Predators the other night. His 50.8 CF% isn’t mind-blowing but it’s getting the job done, and that’s with just over half his starts in the offensive zone. If he can score consistently and the top line can stay as reliable as it’s been most of the year, this team will remain much more bearable to watch.
It sounds strange to say that the Hawks have never beaten an expansion team. You’d think you’d have gotten one by accident, all things being norma.. But the Golden Knights aren’t really a normal expansion team, and these haven’t been the normal Hawks. So in five tries, the Hawks have drawn an 0-fer. And they rarely have been close. Last out where they took the lead against the Knights in the 3rd is about as good as they’ve done, and they promptly hocked that up like a smoker’s phlegm as quickly as they could. This is also the same team that put a snowman on the Hawks at home. So yeah, let’s just say it’s not a great matchup.
The Knights come in after just having a seven-game win-streak snapped at home on Thursday by a San Jose team they’re having a tussle with at the top of the standings. After some wonky health and dips in performance, the Knights were getting both back at the time, with Marc-Andre Fleury shaking off some of the malaise that’s draped on him most of the year. Paul Stastny returned to give the Knights a second line worth worrying about, though now Reilly Smith and Cody Eakin have ended up on a trainer’s table. Eakin looks like he’ll slot back in tonight on the third line, though.
It’s not quite the fireworks of last year. Vegas’s leading goal-scorer is Alex Tuch with just 15. They’re only middle of the pack, averaging an even three goals per game even though they have some of the best possession-numbers around. And it’s some of the same problems that Carolina has had for years. You have to have some front-line snipers to turn that possession into goals, and not just William Karlsson vomiting up a 25% shooting-percentage for a season out of nowhere. The Knights have a bunch of good players, but perhaps not enough premier scorers to avoid some ruts at times, especially when Pacioretty has been subpar.
That hasn’t stopped them from being a major headache for the Hawks, as they simply can’t live with Vegas’s speed. With Brent Seabrook returning from illness tonight, that doesn’t figure to get any better either. The Knights move the puck out of their zone quicker than the Hawks’ forecheckers can bother them, and their forwards can beat the Hawks’ D all over the ice. especially to the outside. This causes the Hawks’ defense to back up and provide more space at the line, which is where the creative destruction happens. The last time these two met Connor Murphy and Carl Dahlstrom weren’t in the lineup, and Brandon Manning and Jan Rutta were. We’ll see if that makes any difference.
For the Hawks, Slater Koekkoek, their new toy from Tampa won’t play tonight but they say he’s going to get a look. So one would have to believe that Brandon Davidson can start packing his bags. How Koekkoek will then get into the six is another questions, but one thing at a time, people. Henri Jokiharju will flip to the left side to accommodate Seabrook, and one has to wonder how much more accommodation and how much longer the Hawks can afford Seabrook. We’ll start to get answers on that soon.
Collin Delia will get the start again as he should, and shouldn’t see too many other lineup changes from the team that played well against Nashville. That means Caggiula and Saad on a third line and Top Cat in the top six. So y’know, fine.
Whenever the Hawks plan on being relevant again, they’re going to have to find a way to play a game this fast and play it well and beat the teams that already do it. Maybe that’s not tonight, maybe it’s next year. But I for one am a little tired of the Knights’ act, especially against the Hawks. So it would be enjoyable to finally get one over on them, just to see there’s been any progress whatsoever. That means none of this bullshit, three-passes-out-of-the zone ploy. Get it out and up and to your forwards as fast as possible. As little passing to someone standing still or moving backwards as possible, because that’s what the Knights feast on. Forward, forward, forward. You’ll give up chances, sure, but you’ll get Top Cat, Kane, and Toews in space too. Let’s have some fun.
The Hawks had no business keeping this game as close as they did. The Predators should be wondering what witch doctor they crossed who kept them from closing this out way earlier and robbing them of both points. Let’s get to it:
– For about the first three minutes the Hawks were outshooting the Predators and looked in control. Nashville quickly righted that situation and within what felt like a nanosecond, Colton Sissons (who sounds like some asshole high school quarterback from Texas) scored to take a 1-0 lead. The Hawks did score a power play goal in the first but then gave the lead back in what actually was a nanosecond (OK, it was like eight seconds later). A four-minute penalty was thrown in there, and with the exception of a solid power play the Hawks got domed in the first—behind in shots (17-13), goals (2-1), and possession (56-44 CF%).
– The Hawks managed to pull their shit together in the second and killed off the remainder of the four-minute penalty. They kept taking dumb penalties through the period, but Jonathan Toews scored a short-handed goal on Kampf’s tripping of Viktor Arvidsson right at the end. The PK looked very shaky at times but not at that moment. In fact, the pass from Kruger was perfectly placed as Toews was streaking into the slot, and his precision getting it past Rinne while moving at top speed was a thing of beauty.
– We’ve been saying for basically the entire season that Alex DeBrincat is not a fucking third liner, and apparently Coach Cool Youth Pastor came around to that notion today, because Top Cat was finally back on the top line. And what did he do? Scored a goal and had seven shots on the night. The goal was on the power play off a pass from Kane, and the entire play showed once again that Kane and DeBrincat work extremely well together, and every day that they’re not permanently on a line together is a crime against basic common sense. No, playing with Kane wouldn’t put him on the top line but the point is that DeBrincat should be in the top six. Don’t bother with tonight’s experiment with Saad on the stupid third line that is already pretty useless with Kampf and Caligula. Put Saad back with Toews and Kahun, and play DeBrincat-Strome-Kane. That’s a solid top six. I feel like I keep saying some iteration of this into the ether and you know doing the same thing repeatedly while expecting a different outcome is the definition of insanity. Thanks a lot, fucking Hawks.
– Anyway, they didn’t have many power play chances but the one they scored on had the movement we’ve been braying about over here, along with Toews in the high slot drawing defenders, which left Top Cat open for Kane’s pass. So maybe all that repetition isn’t totally insane.
– By the third it was pure luck that kept the Hawks in it. Nashville had a 58 CF% in the period and it was a whiffed shot and an untimely post that kept them from taking a two-goal lead. And they managed to let Wide Dick Arty score, so you know there was some combination of bad breaks and foolish mistakes. It only took about a minute into OT for Filip Forsberg to put it away with his second of the night.
– Henri Jokiharju had a solid return tonight, with a 63 CF% and a team-leading 23 CF% Rel. It’ll be interesting to see how Colliton maneuvers the defense when Seabrook returns from his bout of acute suck-itis that kept him out tonight.
– On a bit of a side note, the intermission segments on the broadcast tonight really epitomized how this league has no fucking clue who or what it is, or what it wants to be. The first intermission had a (very staged) segment with PK Subban handing out sweaters to a couple teammates, and they were made from recycled plastic supposedly taken out of the ocean. I’m skeptical of some greenwashing here, but nevertheless it featured timely themes, a black player, and was generally forward-thinking/feeling. Then, in the second intermission, we got Mike Milbury and Keith Jones showing grainy, shitty footage of themselves fighting fellow oafs back in the day and guffawing about how hilarious those days were. It couldn’t have been more backwards-looking or contradictory if someone had set out to make these segments as jarring as possible. Clearly there are multiple voices trying to direct these broadcasts, but the old guard has not lost that battle yet.
Back to the Hawks, they were fortunate to get one point since it was really Collin Delia bailing their asses out with a couple big saves in the third that even allowed them to get to OT. It won’t mean much in the end, but we’ll take it, right? Onward and upward.
The Blackhawks were lucky this shitfest went to overtime. I am no Pullega so let’s just bullets it:
-The Blackhawks being beaten by a guy named Toews is kind of a hilarious cherry on top of this season, to me at least. Finally Hockey Twitter is right and a Toews was the downfall of the Hawks.
– So, Collin Delia might be an actual thing. Like I said, the Hawks were lucky they even got to overtime in this one, and it was solely on the play of Delia that they got there. He stopped 47 of 50 total shots and was locked in the whole time, save for some slight rebound control issues early on that aren’t exactly surprising given this is his fifth career NHL game. He’s been aces for them and might just end up fucking up the quasi-tank they have going on here. But given the status of Crawford, if he proves to be a franchise goalie, that’s way more important than Jack Hughes would be so it’d be fine. Moving forward there is no reason he shouldn’t be started every game that isn’t a back-to-back, and since the Hawks have just one of those in a light January before the bye week at the end of the month, he needs to be between the pipes this whole month so we really see what we have here.
– I have been very wary of giving up on Gustav Forsling, in large part because I felt like I really saw something in him that proved he could be a good defenseman in the NHL. He has the smooth skating stride, the puck control, the passing that you want to see from a mobile defenseman. The problem is he can’t for the life of him put it all together, and I don’t think they ever taught him what defense actually looks like in Sweden. He has been downright bad for a while now and I have finally come to grips with it. At this point the best case is maybe that you find a team willing to gamble on his upside.
Side note – based on the reports I’m hearing from the WJC and some of the earlier scouting reports, I might be starting to be a little worried about if Adam Boqvist is actually gonna be able to play defense, or if he’ll just be Forsling with better tools.
– The Jonathan Toews “Fuck You Tour” continued tonight, as even in a game in which the Hawks got shitpumped and skull-fucked simultaneously in the possession game with a hilariously bad “are you sure you even tried” 36.89 CF%, Toews dominated to the tune of an individual CF% of 60. Brandon Saad and Dominic Kahun were flanking him and were the only other two Hawks above 50%, with 58.64 and 54.55 respectively. That’s a dominant night from that line that basically went for naught, save for Kahun getting the opening goal of the game.
– Speaking of “Fuck You” tours, this time of a different variety, Duncan Keith was ass again tonight with a 37.14 CF%. I’m sad but also tired of it.
– I had the national NBCSN feed streaming on my computer, because for some reason NBCSN wanted to subject the nation to this monstrosity, but in the end it turned out that the real monstrosity was the broadcast. I don’t know who the announcers were for the broadcast, but they were boring as hell. One of them was a woman who’s analysis was good for the most part save for a few cheap praises of a Hawks team that played like utter garbage, but even with that they were not exciting at all. It also sounded like Nassau Coliseum was dead. And then in the intermission reports, Kathryn Tappen (who is normally very good) butchered Delia’s name to an extent that I did not think could be possible, though I can’t exactly blame her because he’s a relative unknown and she’s on the national level so she probably learned his name today. Then Roenick had the audacity in the postgame to say the Hawks played “good tight defense” and that’s why Delia was able to keep them in it, and I was done. I need to go back to the Mute Lounge.
Another Winter Classic, another loss for the Hawks. The Hawks played decently for the most part, which makes this loss a bit more frustrating than usual, but you can’t put Boston on the power play and expect them not to score. Still, there’s some good to take from this game. Let’s do the bullets.
– After my total psychotic breakdown about Cam Ward starting, Cam Ward was probably the best Hawk on the ice today. None of the goals he gave up were goals he had a chance on. The first was the result of a bad clearing attempt by Kruger after a weak and off-balance pass from Dahlstrom. Bergeron just picked Kruger’s pocket at the point and swept a pass to a wide open Pastrnak, past an off-kilter Dahlstrom. The second came off an unfortunate deflection off Seabrook’s skate on the PK. With Pastrnak trying to thread a pass to DeBrusk in the blue paint, the puck ricocheted off Seabrook’s skate and directly to Bergeron in the slot. The third was a result of Gustav Forsling being a giant bag of ass. It’s clear that the predictive success of Fels Motherfuck is directly proportional to how red and nude we get toward the person we’re motherfucking, because Ward was really, really good today.
– Brendan Perlini and Dylan “Stop Fucking Calling Me Tyler, Eddie” Sikura looked great early on. Perlini’s goal while open in the slot was a relief, and the way it got set up was really fun to watch. Dahlstrom was on the far boards with the puck and fell down, only to recover and tip the puck to Kampf. Kampf pushed it to Sikura who shot it wide left. Krejci tried to corral it behind the net, only to run into Kampf, who stole it away and fed a perfect pass to Perlini. Perlini saw a whole lot less time later in the game, and it’s hard to understand why, given how noticeable he was early.
– Jonathan Toews had himself a nice game. You can trace Kahun’s goal in the second to Toews’s effort behind the net. After getting tripped, Toews recovered quickly and shoved a strong pass from behind the net to Gus at the point. Gus’s point shot ended up behind Rask thanks to Kahun’s high-slot tip, but none of it happens without Toews showing off some Old Man Strength. He also hit the post late in the third, coming just inches away from tying it up.
– David Kampf had a good game throughout as well. His steal and pass to Perlini in the first was high art, and he had an exceptional break up at center ice with the Bruins on a 5-on-3 PP in the third. The fancy stats don’t flesh it out, but Kampf looked to be in all the right places at all the right times.
– You could not say the same about Gustav Forsling. The game-winning goal was a clinic in why we think Forsling sucks. First, he failed to clear the puck because he was busy getting smashed into the glass by Chris Wagner. He struggled to recover, which put the Blackhawks way out of position up top, forcing Martinsen to try to traverse the length of the ice to cover the far side. Once Forsling finally got to the area code where he should have been, Kuraly simply beat him to the rebound.
You’d be less upset about this if Forsling were delivering the puck movement and offense he’s supposed to provide, but he doesn’t even do that. He was directly responsible for suffocating two Hawks drives because of poor shot choices. If he’s not delivering offense and he clearly sucks on defense, what is it he does here?
– We’ve all had enough of Artie, whether on the second line or in general. His trip led to Boston’s first PP goal, and he couldn’t keep up with play at all. He and Keith brought up the rear with a 41+ CF% in a game in which the Hawks controlled possession with a 55% share.
– That Weezer song about ride-sharing is worse than I could have imagined.
The Hawks put together a decent effort, but they couldn’t overcome the Marchand–Bergeron–Pastrnak line. It’s hard to be mad about this loss, considering how much worse it could have been. It’s over now, and God willing we’ll never have to do another Notre Dame tilt again.
Onward . . .
Booze du Jour: Cruse champagne (they were out of Andre)
Line of the Night: “Anisimov, not moving his feet.” – Pierre, stating the obvious
One of the most baffling things about the Hawks during The Core’s 11.5-year run together has been the overall underperformance and at times downright putridness of the power play. With all of the scoring threats the Hawks have had since the 07–08 campaign—Kane, Toews, Hossa, Sharp, and DeBrincat, just to name a few—the Hawks have finished in the Top-10 for PP% just three times. In each of their Stanley Cup campaigns, the Hawks finished 16th, 19th, and 20th in PP% during the regular season, respectively. Their best finish came in 2015–16, when the Hawks finished second in the league. You might recall that as the year Patrick Kane scored 17 PP goals (T-2nd in league behind Ovechkin) next to Panarin and won the Hart, Ross, and Pearson (Lindsay).
Over the last year and a half, though, it’s looked dismal even by the Hawks’s underwhelming standards. For reference, last year they finished 28th, and they currently sit at 24th this year. But this year’s bad ranking was much worse just a few weeks ago, when the Hawks power play ranked dead last (31st).
Things have begun to look up recently, with the Hawks catapulting seven spots. But why?
For context, let’s first compare Time on Ice Per Game on the power play for the Hawks’s top time-getting defensemen between Quenneville and Colliton.
PP TOI/Game: Quenneville (15 Games)
PP TOI/Game: Colliton (26 Games)
Keith
2:34
1:03
Gustafsson
2:18
2:25
Seabrook
2:16
2:08
Right off the bat, you can see a huge difference in how Colliton uses Keith on the PP vs. Quenneville. We’ve been screaming in the rain about how Duncan Keith is not and never has been a good PP QB, and it looks like Colliton agrees. Since taking over, the Hawks have leaned primarily on Gustafsson and Seabrook in the QB1 and QB2 roles.
Now, let’s do the same for the Hawks forwards who tend to see the most time on the PP:
PP TOI/Game: Quenneville (15 Games)
PP TOI/Game: Colliton (26 Games)
Kane
3:34
3:43
Toews
3:15
3:05
DeBrincat
3:14
2:50
Schmaltz
2:53
2:22
Anisimov
2:20
1:20
Saad
1:46
1:34
Kahun
1:42
0:52
Strome
–
2:19
Both coaches used Kane, Toews, DeBrincat, and Schmaltz primarily. The biggest differences in terms of time were that Colliton has used Anisimov much less and replaced Schmaltz with Strome. There’s a frustrating dip in DeBrincat’s time under Colliton, but over the last six games, that number is closer to 3:20, so it may have just been Colliton trying things on. (John Hayden was on the PP for a while under Colliton. No, really.)
Essentially, Colliton has preferred Gus to Keith and Strome to Anisimov, quite rightly.
Now we have an idea about the big changes Colliton made (less Keith and Artie, more Gus and Strome). Let’s dig into the more recent success the Hawks have had on the PP. Check out the splits between the PP1 (Gus, Cat, Toews, Kane, Strome) and PP2 (Seabrook, Keith, Artie, Saad, Kahun) units over the last six games, which is when the PP started clicking:
PP TOI/Game (12/18–12/30)
Gustafsson
3:35
Kane
3:28
DeBrincat
3:20
Strome
3:15
Toews
3:11
Saad
1:04
Keith
1:01
Anisimov
0:52
Kahun
0:52
Seabrook
0:40
Colliton has really relied on his PP1 unit over the last six games. So that’s one piece of the puzzle. But that sure as shit doesn’t explain it all. Next, we’ll look at the difference between Kane–Seabrook and Kane–Gustafsson as a combo to determine whether who QBs for Kane matters.
Let’s compare Goals For and High-Danger Chances For between the Kane–Seabrook combo and Kane–Gustafsson combo. We’ll look over two time frames: 11/08–12/16 (19 games, beginning when Colliton took over) and 12/18–12/30 (6 games, beginning when the PP started clicking):
PP TOI/Game
Goals For
HDCF
Kane–Seabrook, 11/08–12/16/18
2:31
4
17
Kane–Gustafsson, 11/08–12/16/18
1:20
0
5
Kane–Seabrook 12/18/18–12/30/18
0
–
–
Kane–Gustafsson, 12/18/18–12/30/18
3:26
6
10
In isolation, it sure looks like simply having Gustafsson out with Kane regularly is far more effective than having Seabrook with Kane regularly. They’ve put up two more goals in six games than Kane–Seabrook did in 19, and the high-danger chances for are quickly catching up in a fraction of the time.
The reason we’re using six games as the touchpoint is twofold: First, the last time Kane played even a minute with Seabrook on the PP was on 12/16. He hasn’t played a single minute with Seabrook as the QB in the last six games.
Second, over the last six games, the Hawks have a 36.8 PP%.
Thirty-fucking-six-point-motherfucking-eight!
The only team ahead of them over that span is Pittsburgh (40%), who is sixth in the league and benefited from a 4/4 night against St. Louis on 12/29. What an outhouse that team and city is. The next closest teams over a similar span are Florida (35.3%), the third-best PP% team in the NHL, and Boston (33.3%), the fifth best.
But how do all of these numbers fit into the overall gameplay? One of the crazy theories we had earlier in the year was that the Hawks PP was struggling because of Kane, not despite him. Compare these two clips:
This is a clip of a Hawks power play against Vegas on 12/06. Notice how long Kane spends with the puck (“Carmelo-ing” as Fels calls it) in both instances and how it allows Vegas’s PK to set up, leaving only low-danger perimeter shots for Seabrook and DeBrincat.
This is a clip of the Hawks power play against the Stars on 12/20. Rather than playing with his dick on the boards, notice how much more movement Kane creates with Gus at QB. The Stars now have to focus on both Kane coming off the half-boards and Toews in the high slot. The biggest difference here is that Gustafsson can move farther than five feet in any direction, unlike Seabrook in the previous clip. With DeBrincat and Gustafsson cycling, Kane doesn’t have to make everything happen by himself. It also lets him move into higher-danger spots, such as when he skated to set up the slapper in the spot that DeBrincat was once in (DeBrincat cycled to the point while Gus took Kane’s usual spot).
Another wrinkle between the two set ups is how Colliton uses Toews. In the first clip, Toews rarely stayed put in the high slot, instead roving around the lower portions of the ice. This “movement” was less strategic and more moving for the sake of moving. Note how no one on Vegas pays much heed to Toews.
In the second clip, Toews tends to stay in the high-to-mid slot. After one retrieval behind the net at the very beginning of the clip, Toews never strays past the dots or lower than the blue paint. In this set up, Toews is a threat to either (a) tip a shot, (b) sweep in a rebound, or (c) set up in the slot for a wrister or a one-timer. By cutting unnecessary movement out, Toews makes himself a threat and gives Kane, DeBrincat, and Gus more real estate to work with.
While both of these set ups came under Colliton, you could easily mistake the first clip for a Quenneville set up. It may have just been a matter of time and experimentation, but once Colliton put Kane and Gus together on the PP1, things started to change.
It took a little over a month, but Colliton has done three things to improve the power play:
1. Massively reduced Keith’s role.
2. Put Gus with Kane at nearly all times.
3. Set Toews in the high slot and reduced unnecessary movement.
When you consider how much movement the Hawks PP has created over the last six games, the reason why the power play looks and is more formidable is likely a function of Gus’s skating ability and risk-taking. With Seabrook, the onus is on Kane to make plays because all Seabrook can do anymore is pound slappers from the point. That’s fine and all, but it’s a huge waste of Kane’s toolset. It forces everyone to play more conservatively, Kane included, because the point man in Seabrook needs cover and can’t create movement by himself. His passing can’t save him, basically.
Gus is more willing and able to make high-wire passes and plays because of his relative speed, decent vision, and the ways he takes advantage of Kane’s preternatural offensive skill, as we saw on Kane’s first goal against the Wild on 12/27. His aggressiveness and ability to cycle with Kane and DeBrincat, coupled with the threat of Toews in the high slot, open up more lanes for both good passing and shooting, rather than the dull perimeter passing they’d get with Keith and Seabrook.
While six games do not a power play make, the Hawks are trending in the right direction, and it looks like all it took was someone for Kane to perform with. The rub here is that you’re relying an awful lot on Gus not to do outlandishly stupid things, which is a coin-flip at best. Nonetheless, the results are clear:
1. The Kane–Gus combo has produced six of the Hawks last seven PP goals over six games. It took the PP 35 games to get to 12 goals prior to this combo playing regularly.
2. Since making Gus the QB on the PP1, the Hawks have the second-best PP% in the NHL, behind only Pittsburgh.
3. Before Gus became the QB1, the Hawks PP% sat at 11.4. With Gus as the QB1, it’s 36.8%. That’s a 223% increase in conversion rates. That’s right: 223%.
The sample sizes are small, but promising. If nothing else, it’s a relief to watch the Hawks PP do something, anything, other than suck out loud, even if it’s only for a little while. But the way the stats flesh out and the PP looks on the ice, this might be what the PP is now.
After a piss-poor first, the Hawks piled on the offensively anemic Wild in the final 40. By all the metrics except the score and the save percentage, the Hawks had no business winning this game. Good thing they don’t let us fuckin’ nerds make the rules. To the bullets!
– Forty-six saves on 48 shots. Collin Delia had himself a hell of a night tonight. The Wild needed a man advantage to score both of their goals, and neither of them were his fault (they were Seabrook’s. More on that later.). The only real knock against him was his rebound control, especially early on, but he kept it clean when it mattered most. There’s no reason outside of injury or diarrhea that should keep Delia from starting Saturday, and unless he gets completely domed, he should also start the Winter Classic, if not for performance than because it would be a sin against God and the Irish not to start a guy who spells his name the brogueish “Collin” at Notre Dame. Again, 46 saves on 48 shots, and both goals required a man advantage.
– Kane got his hat trick, and man, that creep can roll. No one has evangelized for the Gustafsson–Kane connection harder than I have, and the reason was clear on Kane’s PP goal. It was a simple play—Toews wins the faceoff, Gus walks the line, Kane fires a one-timer short side—but it’s on the power play, which all of a sudden looks deadly.
Kane’s first goal was all him. When Gustafsson took the shot fake and skated around Kunin, I thought he had given himself a nice lane to take a decent shot. Then he fucking passed it. Normally, this would have been a bad pass and a missed opportunity. But Kane kicked the puck to his stick in traffic and flicked it by a porous and soon-to-be-pulled Devan Dubnyk. There are a handful of players who could have gotten a shot off on that pass, let alone scored, and Gus should thank his stars that Kane’s one of them.
– Brandon Saad did a good deal of fucking tonight. His first goal took a bit of luck from Toews behind the net. After receiving a pass from Kahun—who himself was feisty tonight—Toews tried to thread one to Saad, and it ended up bouncing off of Zucker and straight to Saad. After last year’s unlucky debacle, it’s about time Saad got one to bounce his way here. His second goal came off a brilliant DeBrincat steal. With Stalock coming out of the goal to play the puck forward, DeBrincat batted his pass out of mid-air and swept it to a wide-open Saad, who sneezed it over the goal line. His 11+ CF% Rel was also best for third on the Hawks, behind Sikura and DeBrincat.
– Dylan Strome had a ton of opportunities tonight that he just couldn’t cash in, but he was in all the right places. He’s got five points in his last two games, and one can only wonder how much more it could be if he had DeBrincat flanking him rather than Artie the Obelisk.
– It’s been a while since we’ve had to gripe about Brent Seabrook, mostly because Coach Cool Youth Pastor has hidden him as far away from meaningful time as possible. But tonight was different, though not necessarily by choice.
Seabrook was on the ice and out of position on both goals. On the first, the PK2 unit found itself stranded on the ice for 1:30. With about 15 seconds left, Granlund moved in on Seabrook at the far circle, forcing Seabrook to step up, which is not a phrase you want to hear outside of “Seabrook stepped up to cheer on Henri Jokiharju (FINLAND POINT) from the press box and got jalapeño stains on his suit.” Granlund then floated toward the top of the circle, opening up Seabrook on the inside, and hit Staal with a pass. Staal’s shot was blocked by Delia, but it allowed Staal and Parise time to set up behind the net. After playing catch, Staal swung behind the net for a wraparound, and Seabrook got caught between playing Staal behind the net and Parise in front. Seems like you’d want to cover the guy who’s in front of the net rather than behind it, but Seabrook’s hesitation allowed Staal to take the wraparound and Parise to sweep in the rebound.
On the second, Seabrook managed to screen his own goaltender and vacate the spot from which Staal scored. This one was a bit more excusable, given how quickly the play developed, but still not great. There’s not much we can do about it other than grumble, but when Seabrook and Keith were together, they got overwhelmed. No more of that.
– Dominik Kahun was active all night, even though the stats show paltry evidence of it, aside from his secondary assist on Saad’s first goal. His best play of the night came about halfway through the second. Carl Dahlstrom broke on a rush, only to have the Hawks turn it over in the neutral zone. Murphy gummed up a 2-on-1, giving Kahun time to get back and lift Staal’s stick as he wound up for a pass from Zucker. It would have been a hard shot for Delia to stop, and Kahun prevented it all with strong stick work.
– David Kampf was good on the PK tonight, logging just over four minutes. He was on the ice for the Wild’s not-really-a PP goal, but aside from that, he battened down the hatches. If he had just a bit of scoring touch, he probably would have had a goal too, as Kane hit him with a smooth drop pass (the good kind) and left him with a wide-open shot that Stalock denied.
– Though it’s a minor gripe, I’d like to see Sikura and Perlini switch back up. Neither was particularly noticeable tonight in their respective spots. It didn’t hurt, but it also didn’t help.
– Toews got his 400th assist tonight. Good on him. If anyone deserves a statue, it’s Toews.
In the first time in about 10,000 days, the Hawks had the tools to win a post-Christmas-break game. They’ll travel back to my backyard on Saturday, where the only excuse Colliton will have for not starting Delia will be because he ate the fattest edible known to man and took advice from drunk Patrick Roy. The Hawks are on a bit of a roll now, and if the shit fits, wear it.
Booze du Jour: Tin Cup
Line of the Night: “Have to get Forsling and Seabrook off the ice. They’re out of gas.” Eddie O., saying what we’re all saying.
vs. 
