Baseball

Series Recap and Cubs Preview: Desperation Station

By Andy Jonathan 1442

BOX SCORES

White Sox 4 – Indians 7

White Sox 3 – Indians 5

White Sox 2 – Indians 3

White Sox 4 – Indians 5

 

That…was not good. In a series that bare minimum needed to result in a split for the Sox to maintain their hold on top of the AL Central standings, instead saw Cleveland return the favor from the end of the season last year when the Sox swept them and crushed the Tribe’s playoff hopes. The Sox could very easily have won every game this series, and yet somehow managed to find ways to lose each one in increasingly frustrating ways. All of this culminating in Rick Renteria’s mystifying decision to throw Carlos Rodon to the wolves in the bottom of the 7th last night. Let’s put a bow on this box full of shit before we move on to the last series of the regular season, shall we?

 

To the bullets:

 

Numbers Don’t Lie

-Let’s get this out of the way to start: Renteria fucked up something pretty huge last night. Taking a returning Carlos Rodon (who hadn’t faced live hitting against legit major leaguers in over 2 months) and having him come it to try and get one out with the bases loaded in a game the Sox absolutely needed to have when he had Marshall, Bummer, Heuer and Foster available to him is inexcusable. The results were completely predictable, and I’m sincerely hoping this hasn’t broken Rodon’s brain. Ricky Renteria takes way too much shit normally from this fanbase and I think he actually does a pretty good job all things considered, but this dump truck full of criticism completely deserves to run him over. Even Frank Thomas in the post-game show was flabbergasted, and was more than happy to let his feelings be known. Not something you see every day.

-On the plus side, Rodon’s velocity was back, hitting the upper 90s with his fastball. Granted he was clearly overthrowing it, and 97 without movement isn’t gonna help anyone but the guy in the batter’s box but it’s the one small positive out of last night’s mess.

-Eloy came up lame after his double in the 7th, which was later revealed to be “foot soreness” (whatever that is). Fingers crossed it’s nothing that keeps him out too long as the Sox are about out of time.

-The Sox offense actually showed signs of life the last two games, which is a welcome sight after the previous 5. A lineup like this that doesn’t take or see many pitches is always going to be prone to slumps, so hopefully this is them coming out the other side of it.

-Luis Robert finally got a day off yesterday, and with 2 starts against left handed pitchers on tap this weekend I fully expect him to shake off his slump. Or not.

-Watching Yoan Moncada breathing heavily on the Sox bench for 10 minutes after his triple and needed to be fanned by Ricky Renteria is terrifying to see. COVID continues to be not something to fuck around with 8 months later and yet people are still fucking stupid about it.

-The Sox are now a game behind the Twins for the lead in the AL Central. 3 for us against the Cubs and 3 for them against the Reds. It’s not over yet, which brings us to:

 

Series Preview: Cubs at White Sox – Yes, It Actually Matters

VS

 

PROBABLE STARTERS

Game 1: Yu Darvish (7-3, 2.22 ERA) vs. Dylan Cease (5-3, 3.52 ERA)

Game 2: Jon Lester (3-2, 4.40 ERA) vs. Dane Dunning (2-0, 3.19 ERA)

Game 3: TBD vs. Reynaldo Lopez (1-2, 4.68 ERA)

Q&A With The Legendary Sam Fels

 

I really, really, REALLY was hoping this series wasn’t going to matter for either team and they could just play out the series with an eye on resting their players for the post season. The Baseball Gods have had other plans, however, so here we are. A series that actually matters for BOTH teams, despite them having clinched a postseason birth.

We all know the situation the Sox find themselves in, but the Cubs have somehow not managed to secure the NL Central title with the Cardinals 2.5 games behind them. The North Siders come into the series in similar straits as the Sox, losers of their last 3 and unable to find their offense without the aid of a GPS, having only scored 13 runs in their last 7 games.

The hottest hitter the Cubs have right now (and I say this with no measure of irony) is Jason Heyward, he of the .283 average and 6 home runs. The offense really just hasn’t gotten going on the North Side, and they currently rank 13th out of 15 teams in the NL for standard batting stats ahead of only the Reds and Pirates (who just took 3 of 4 from them).

On the pitching side, the Sox will face the rejuvenated Cy Young candidate Yu Darvish on Friday night. Darvish, despite having a few less than stellar (merely pretty good) outings in his last 3 still has to at least be in the conversation for the award that we all know is going to Trevor Bauer. The last time the Sox faced Darvish he held them in check, only allowing one dinger to Jose Abreu (he does that to people) and striking out 10.

Saturday is a different story, with Jon Lester making what is most likely to be his final regular season start in a Cubs uniform. Last time out the Sox torched him for 8 runs, 4 of which came from the long ball. More of this would be welcome this weekend.

The Cubs don’t have a starter listed for the finale this weekend, but if they lose the first two to the Sox and the Cards win both of theirs I would expect to see Kyle Hendricks on short rest. If that’s not the case I would think it would be Adbert Alzolay and Jose Quintana eating innings for game 3.

We know what this means for the Sox. A good weekend could be the difference between facing the Yankees in the first round and the Indians. Despite the fact that the Tribe just managed to steal 4 games in a row against them, I know I’d rather see them than Garrett Cole and that Death Star of an offense the Yankees field every game. Just get it done.

 

Let’s Go Sox

 

Baseball

Series Preview: White Sox at Cubs – Know Your Enemy (Fels Edition)

By Andy Jonathan 1472

With the series against the Cubs this weekend, I figured I would eschew the normal preview and do something a little more fun. So let’s welcome back the Founding Father of FFUD and overall Maven of the blog: Sam Fels!

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Sam has been kind enough to answer a few questions about his beloved Cubs, and provide some insight into their hot start thus far. So without further ado, lets get to the questions.

 

AJ – So as I write this, the Cubs are 2nd overall in the NL with a 15-8 record. However, only 2 of those games came against a club with an above water winning percentage (Cleveland). Is the record indicative of the Cubs talent level, or more a result of who they’ve played thus far?

Fels – Eh, I don’t fucking know. It’s sample size. My gut tells me the rotation probably is that good.
Hendricks and Darvish definitely are, Lester has pitched well, and the thing with Chatwood is
that everyone knew if he could keep his stuff in the zip code he’s very effective. My gut says the
lineup is probably that good? While they have beat up on bad teams, the top of the lineup hasn’t
really done dick. The team has been carried by Happ or Caratini or my god Jason Fucking Kipnis.
Even Jason Heyward has been ok.

The eventually Baez, Contreras, Bryant will be Baez, Contreras, and Bryant, even if the others drop off at some point. My gut says the bullpen is absolutely a disaster area and if the Cubs hadn’t won in ‘16 this would absolutely be a fireable offense for Theo Epstein. So for the most part, yeah, I think they’re pretty good, but not .667 good. The thing is with the schedule only being intra-division and crossover, they might keep it up, because most everyone has been bad in both except for like, Minnesota.

 

AJ – Yu Darvish seems to be healthy and back to smoking chumps at the plate with a 10.5 K/9. Kyle Hendricks is his usual stalwart self, getting hitters to pound balls into the dirt with his sinker and keeping his typical low 3’s ERA. Jon Lester was cruising along fairly well until he burped on himself against the Brewers. Quintana tried cutting off his own finger making a pie and should be back fairly soon. It seemed like the starters were going to be a big question mark coming into the season, but they’ve performed well. Is this rotation good enough to make some noise going forward?

Fels – Define “noise.” Can they get into the playoffs? Absolutely, and at this point it would already be a
serious upset if they don’t. They have to win like 13 more games out of 35 to do so. Can they make a run once there? I mean, the playoffs are do dumb this year anyway but sure. Hendricks and Darvish are this good. That’s not a mirage. So they only have to produce one other start or bullpen game to win a series after that. If that. And they have time to figure that out (Alzolay and Quintana could be huge in this department). So yeah, it’s possible they can make noise…until getting thwacked by the Dodgers somewhere along the line.

 

AJ –  .202/.253/.622 with a 65 wRC+ is the kind of stat line you’d expect from Albert Almora and not Javy Baez. What’s up with him?

Fels – Woof, if I had any idea. It’s hard to say with Baez, because he goes off the boil like this once or twice a season. You just don’t notice as much because it’s not at the beginning of a truncated farce of a season. I’m guessing the short run-up didn’t help because he is so much on timing with that swing. I wouldn’t be shocked if the extension talks, or lack thereof now, are weighing on him a bit. And when Javy presses, it’s ugly. He’s also got a new approach, which Sahadev touched on in The Athletic.

He’s swinging at way less pitches, but he’s making contact on way less pitches too. He’s getting behind in the count and then pressing, and we know he likes a whiff. My hunch is that if he can continue to let more pitches outside the zone go, as he has done this year, and just spends a week hitting pitches to the opposite field–which he has incredible power to and he just forgets it at times–he’s going to be just fine.

 

AJ – On the flip side, Ian Happ’s batting line looks pretty glorious with a .313/.439/1.026(!) and a 181 wRC+. Has he arrived or is this just a small sample size?

Fels – Happ is such a funny character. Did you know he has 1100 MLB PAs? I didn’t even know that
until last week, he just has felt like such a yo-yo player. In those 1100 PAs, he’s got a 117 wRC+ and a .834 OPS. That’s certainly enough PAs with those numbers to say the guy is good. He’s had an odd way of getting there but he’s good, and his play in center keeps improving as well. Is he this good? The .410 BABIP would suggest no. However he is hitting the ball awfully hard, he takes his walks, and he’s not as susceptible to high fastballs as he was (though I think he might need to give up on the switch hitting thing and just be left-handed at some point). He’s not a 1.,00o OPS player, but is he an .850 OPS guy? I think so, and you take that from center field, especially with passable defense at worst.

 

AJ – Jeremy Jeffress and Rowan Wick (Hello, Mr. Wick) have been pretty solid thus far, but after that everything else has been pretty ooky. Is there any hope for the bullpen without a total teardown?

Fels – UGH. My least favorite subject. There is hope if the Cubs get creative, which they’ve shown no
willingness to do. IF they were the Rays or Brewers, Alzolay and Quintana would be multi-inning
guys tomorrow to shield everyone else. They would throw three-four times a week combined, maybe once through the lineup each time. Considering how good the starting pitching has been, that would be enough to get through a lot of games right there.

Beyond that, I don’t think I can help you or them. I don’t even trust Wick that far. Kimbrel has put
together three straight good outings by finally concentrating on the top of the zone where his
96-97 will play much better than at the bottom. That only means I hope he can be ok. Everyone else is ass, and they can’t make a trade this year because you can’t give up actual pieces for anything in this joke of a summer. My hope is that at least Alzolay and Brailyn Marquez get a chance to be something, and they just find some guy from elsewhere. Chatwood would also be an excellent candidate to be the multi-inning weapon, as he was last year sporadically before Joe Maddon got in the way. That’s if they want Q to start again.

 

AJ – Another nagging injury for Kris Bryant. Is this the end of the road for him in a Cubs jersey? Also: will Rizzo get that paper and stick around long term?

Who the fuck knows. I wouldn’t be shocked if Ol’ Tommy Ricketts uses the pandemic as an excuse to not pay anyone and lets the whole thing burn. Bryant’s been hurt and I can’t imagine that the Cubs could get any value for him if they moved him in the winter. Even Mookie Betts in the last year of his deal only got one guy in return really, and Bryant doesn’t look to be coming in nearly as hot. So maybe he just walks? I’m not sure. If he can’t turn it around next year, and I assume he will, then he’s kind of a prime candidate to just get a two-year deal to prove it before cashing in like we all assumed he would. We still have no idea what contracts will look like after this, ignoring the fantasy world the Dodgers live in. So there’s a chance he sticks around.

As far as Rizzo, he’ll have to prove his back isn’t going to turn to graham crackers in the next couple years. But I also can’t fathom they’d let Rizzo go. He’s the center of the team in so many ways. But I could also see him getting pretty pissed if other guys are allowed to leave or moved and he still doesn’t have an extension yet. But he’ll be in his early 30s when his deal is up, how many uber-productive years does he have left? That’s a hard one, but sometimes emotions do play a part.

AJ – Finally, with Summerslam coming up this Sunday I’m in need of some prognostications. Who ya got?

Apollo Crews vs. MVP (US Title) – Apollo

Street Prophets vs. Andrade/Angel Garza (Raw Tag Belts) – Something stupid will happen here
with a non-finish, and hopefully involves Bianca getting a full-run.

Eddie Guerrero’s Son Dominik Mysterio vs. Seth Rollins (street fight) – If Seth doesn’t turn him to dust I don’t even know what we’re doing. Get Seth in a program with Aleister yesterday and let’s fucking go.

Sonya Deville vs Mandy Rose (hair vs hair) – Yeah, Vince is really gonna have the blonde bombshell lose.

Sasha Banks vs Asuka (Raw Women’s title)/Bayley vs. Asuka (SD Women’s title) –

I think Asuka gets this one, or maybe both, but something will happen between Sasha and Bayley in both matches that sows the seeds of an eventual breakup. I think it’ll be Sasha helping Bayley but not the other way around. It gives you that, and it also gives you the added story line that Sasha has still never defended a singles title. She’ll get jealous of Bayley in that sense, and it keeps Asuka around. Maybe Sasha then leaves Bayley to get eaten by Shayna. Lot of ways this could go, and I’m sure they’ll pick the worst one.

Braun Strowman vs. The Fiend (World Title) – Gotta be Fiend. Braun has become so uninteresting, and The Fiend can do so many things. Very curious where this stuff with Alexa goes.

Drew McIntyre vs. Randall Orton (Universal Title) – I feel bad for Drew. He’s done nothing wrong but never got his moment in front of an actual crowd. But they’re building this for Randall, who
honestly has been incredible the past couple months. And it’s clear they want Edge to take the title off Orton, even though that’s a feud that does not need a belt on it. There’s too much to Orton now, he’s getting 14. Wouldn’t be shocked if they circle back to Drew soon though.

 

For more Fels action, you can find him on Twitter @FelsGate, in the pages of Deadspin weekly, or catch his dulcet tones each week on the FFUD podcast.

Baseball Everything Else

Mad Science and MLB

By Andy Jonathan 2849

We all pretty much figured that MLB was going to do whatever it could to try and salvage as much of this season as humanly possible, and understandably so. Major League Baseball is a billion dollar business, and those folks don’t like to sit idly by and let that money go up in smoke if they have anything to say about it. So when Bob Nightengale posted this tweet earlier today my initial reaction was not one of surprise, other than at how long it took for some of these weird science ideas to start getting leaked to the press.

As far as creative thinking goes, this one fills the Corporate Bingo card for buzzwords. It’s MLB initiating a paradigm shift thinking outside the box while simultaneously sticking to their core competency (BINGO). Essentially the idea is that baseball will completely realign for a season, with the teams returning to their respective spring training homes in Florida and Arizona. The Florida teams will comprise the “Grapefruit League” while the Zona teams will form the “Cactus League.” Each league will be divided into three separate divisions based on their geographic location in those states. Now comes the point when you ask “Don’t the White Sox and Dodgers share a park, and would that put them in the same division?” The answer is twofold: Yes and Fuck. Here’s what the divisions would look like:

Cactus League:

Northeast Division – Cubs, Giants, Diamondbacks, A’s and Rockies

West Division – Dodgers, White Sox, Reds, Indians and Angels

Northwest Division – Brewers, Padres, Mariners, Rangers and Royals

 

Grapefruit League:

North Division – Yankees, Phillies, Blue Jays, Tigers and Pirates

South Division – Red Sox, Twins, Braves, Rays and Orioles

East Division – Nationals, Astros, Mets, Cardinals and Marlins

 

Right off the bat you can see there is some disparity in the talent levels in different divisions. If this were to be how it shakes out division wise the Yankees may as well just get a bye on the regular season and start right in the first round of the playoffs. The Northwest division in the Cactus League is also pretty bereft of quality, as none of those teams other than the Brew Crew even sniffed the postseason last year (and they got in by the last hair on their asses) . Meanwhile the East division is hilariously loaded as it contains both World Series teams from 2019, the Cards (who are always good for 88 wins), the Mets (who despite being hilariously run have a pretty deep vein of talent to mine), and the Miami Derek Jeters.

If you go by ZiPS win projections the divisions stack out like this:

NE – 394

W – 434

NW – 376

N – 388

S – 415

E – 423

 

What does that mean for the baseball teams of Chicago? I’m glad you asked, I’ve been super bored these past few weeks. For the White Sox, this kinda sucks as they share a field with the unholy terror that is the Dodgers they’re plopped in the middle of the most difficult division in all the land. After the Dodgers the revamped Reds are there, plus our old friends the Tribe and the Angels, who have the greatest baseball player ever to play the game. Out of the entire division, not a single team is forecast for less than 81 wins (the Reds) and pretty much everyone expects them to outperform that. The silver lining for the Sox here is that getting to play out the season at the Camelback Ranch might help some of the pitchers control the long ball, as the dimensions there are larger then the bandbox that The Down Arrow has become.

For the Cubs, the new division alignment paints a much rosier picture for them. They get to ditch the two teams who are seemingly always nipping at their heels (Brewers and Cards),  and the exciting new club (Reds). Those get replaced with a couple teams the Cubs should easily be able to punch down upon, namely the Giants (69 projected wins) (nice), Rockies and Dbacks. The ZiPS model that projected a whopping 72 wins for the Rockies obviously didn’t take into account them not getting to play on their orbital platform for at least half the season so that’s definitely high. The only team that could give the Cubs fits would be the A’s, where the change of scenery moving from their cavernous stadium to a spring training field could bump the shit out of their hitter’s numbers.

What the article doesn’t really go into are the nitty gritty details of the plan, other than to say that the universal DH would be implemented (good) and the entire season would be played in Arizona and Florida. The World Series would be played at one of the domed stadiums in Florida in early November. It also doesn’t say anything about how the league will handle positive tests for the virus, as it wouldn’t take much for the season to fall apart with one or two infections among teams. It also doesn’t mention how the league would handle it if sanctions were suddenly lifted, allowing teams to return to their home parks.

Also, I don’t think the plan takes into account the average Arizona summer temperature of 489 degrees Kelvin. The Dbacks can make it work down there because their stadium has a roof and air conditioning. Camelback Ranch has neither of those two things, which might help kill the virus but also could take a few players with it. While watching Trevor Bauer spontaneously combust on the mound would be fun, having Yoan Moncada pass out from heat stroke is slightly less so.

Florida presents it’s own set of problems, as there is a reason both their stadiums are also indoors. Thunderstorms pop up at the drop of a hat down there, which leads to an increased chance of rainouts in an already condensed season. There’s also the issue of August-October being hurricane season in FL, which makes baseball hard to play when half your stadium and equipment have been blown into the Gulf of Mexico. Plus you know at some point alligators are going to run off with at least one member of the Mets pitching staff. Also factoring in is that their state is being run by a moron. Being able to shit on other state’s governors is nice for a change. I can’t tell you how weird it is to have the governor of Illinois on the news for doing a good job as opposed to being sentenced for 39 counts of fraud. I digress.

All things being equal I think this idea has some merit to it, but as currently presented it’s a little too half baked to be workable. If Southern California were to become available along with the domed stadiums in Georgia and Texas I think you might have something to work with. I get that you want to keep travel to a minimum, but if you are having all these players in hotels for at least the first part of the season the risk for exposure isn’t going to be any more than a chartered airplane.

This is a good first effort for the MLB brain trust, however. I honestly feel that some form of an MLB season is within reach, and if this first attempt leads to better and better ideas down the road then more power to them. I think everyone wants to watch baseball in some form this season, and out of the Big 4 professional sports MLB has the best chance of making it work. Hockey, basketball and football are all too close contact right now to realistically have a chance at limiting the spread without some form of vaccine. There’s still a lot of hurdles to clear, but today was a step in the right direction.

 

 

Baseball

Yes Movement – 2020 Chicago Cubs Player Previews: Jon Lester

By Adam Hess 1607

We come now to the savvy veteran of the Cubs rotation, as we visit with the surprisingly-gracefully-aging Jon Lester. While Lester is certainly far from the pitcher he was during his first two years with the Cubs, he has done a good job avoiding completely falling off a cliff over the past few years, and in many ways improved over his 2018 campaign. Let’s dig in.

Jon Lester 2019

31 starts, 171.2 innings

4.46 ERA   1.50 WHIP   4.26 FIP

8.65 K/9   2.73 BB/9

43.3 GB%   14.6 HR/FB

102 ERA-   2.8 fWAR

So, Lester saw his ERA climb by more than a full point from ’18 to ’19, but in reality that was actually the result of incredible luck in 2018 keeping the ERA down. In 2018, his ERA of 3.32 was a full point below his FIP of 4.39, which is a major red flag. In 2019, though, he actually brought the FIP down to 4.26, and his ERA being above that is indicative of the actual results matching the expected results. He also saw a bit of bad luck, as evidenced by the ERA being just over the FIP, but also the fact that opposing batters had a .347 BABIP against him, which was far and away the highest mark against him in his career. Overall, 2019 should serve as an encouragement for Cubs fans for what Lester still might have in the tank.

YES! YES! YES!: Given that Lester is now 36 and has been worth less than 3.0 WAR three years in a row, it’s hard to dream too much on a best case scenario for 2020. In reality, the best case scenario is really just avoiding any wide variety of worst-case scenarios, which we will touch on more in a moment. If Lester can be worth more than 2.0 WAR this season, which he should be capable of, then it should be considered a good season from him given his age and lack of overpowering stuff.

The one big thing that the Cubs and their fans may hope to avoid is any chance of Lester somehow vesting his 2021 option. It’s unclear how exactly that would work out at this point, given the option vests if he throws 200 innings this year, and without a 162-game schedule there is zero chance of him getting there, but if that option did happen to vest, it would be bad news for the Cubs. They’d have to pay a 37-year old Lester $25-million in 2021, and while certainly none of us are going to cry tears for the Ricketts having to pay anyone, having that much payroll space taken up by an old pitcher who is just barely performing over league average would not be nice.

YOU’RE A B+ PLAYER: As I briefly mentioned, there are a number of potential worst case scenarios for Lester in 2020, and probably too many to try and get specific with them all. Suffice it to say they can all be summed up with this – it’d be really bad if his age really caught up with him really fast. Again, this could manifest itself in a multitude of ways. Maybe he walks a shit ton of guys. Maybe he is tossing home run derby velocity up there and Wrigley field looks more like a driving range than a baseball field when he pitched. Maybe neither of those things happen, but he still just can’t get anyone out and people just tee off on him. Again, there are many outcomes, but you just hope not to see any of them.

And while the aforementioned option vesting would probably only vest because Lester stays in games for a long time because he’s pitching well, it’s still best to avoid that.

DRAGON OR FICKLE?: I am not one to bet against aging curves, but I am also not one to ignore years of great performance. And while Lester is definitely not an elite pitcher anymore, he still has the pitch control, repertoire, and mindset to pitch well in the bigs. I think we see a virtual repeat of 2019 from Big Jon, though maybe with some ever so slight decline in overall value and production. Mark me down for an official prediction of 2.5 WAR, and I won’t go too far into the rest of the numbers, but if pitches well enough to produce that WAR, the rest of his stats should be satisfactory as well.

Baseball

Yes Movement – 2020 Chicago Cubs Player Previews: The Cerebral Assassin

By Sam Fels 1344

It feels like there’s some volatility in all of these, until you get to Kyle Hendricks. Since coming up full-time in 2015, Hendricks has put up 3.2 and 4.2 fWAR every season except ’17 when he was hurt for a month, and he would have then as well. His K/9 has been between 7.2 and 8.2. His BB/9 between 1.63 and 2.15. ERA never over 4.00, and not even over 3.50 since his rookie year. FIP never over four either. Hendricks might be the one Cub where you can definitely say what you’re going to get.

Kyle Hendricks 2019

30 starts, 177 innings

3.46 ERA   1.13 WHIP   3.61 FIP

7.63 K/9   1.63 BB/9

41.3 GB%   10.4 HR/FB

79 ERA-   4.1 fWAR

Lost in the Cubs mass pants-pissing in 2019 was that Hendricks might have had as good of a season as his Cy Young finalist year of 2016. His ERA didn’t approach that level, but his FIP did, his WAR did, and he walked far less hitters last year than he did in that campaign. He gave up four more homers, but with a vastly different and misbehaving baseball, so the 19 he gave up last year might be better than the 15 he gave up in ’16. And Hendricks put up those numbers while getting away from his grounder-heavy ways, and yet somehow still got a ton of soft contact with fly balls. Which normally would make you think he’s flirting with danger, except Hendricks never does.

YES! YES! YES!: Again, this best-case/worst-case scenarios for Kyle are a little silly, because you know pretty much what you’re getting. So in order to be on the high end of that window, he needs a touch of BABIP luck (but not a whole lot, given how he specializes in soft contact). He even got a touch unlucky last year with that .287 mark, as that’s ten points over his career BABIP against.

There’s been talk that Hendricks is in better shape this year and is throwing harder, which is fine as long as he doesn’t lose movement. But no pitcher is more attuned to his mechanics and stuff than Hendricks, so it’s unlikely he would sacrifice that for a couple more MPH. He’s given up a run in nine spring innings with 8 Ks and one walk, so all good there.

Hendricks has lost a little of his strikeouts the past couple seasons, so if he gains those back he could once again threaten the Cy party again. You know the walks aren’t coming.

YOU’RE A B+ PLAYER: Anything that sends Kyle’s season off the rails has little to do with him. It could be rotten luck with contact or the defense behind him, but that’s unlikely in at least the infield. Hendricks saw his line-drive rate go up last year, but then again so did pretty much everyone. Maybe the greater amount of fly balls he gave up last year turn into homers simply because the gods are assholes, or weird Wrigley wind patters, or both.

Health isn’t a concern as other than 2017 Hendricks has always made 30 starts. Maybe added velocity does take off some movement, which keeps his pitches in the middle of the zone, which would be a problem. But Hendricks would probably just start it closer to the corners and still get movement to off the plate. It’s just hard to pinpoint how the floor would move from beneath him until age is a problem. Which it won’t be for a while.

DRAGON OR FICKLE?: Even I, the most skeptical of humans, have taken Hendricks at full value. He is an anomaly in today’s game, not just deriving success from pitching to contact and using his brain but massive success from it. It bears repeating: Since he started full-time in ’15, Hendricks in top-10 in ERA (min. 800 innings), FIP, and WAR. He’s been that good, and considering six or seven other pitchers in that list of 10 make $30M a year or thereabouts, Hendricks might just be the biggest bargain in the league right now.

IT’S ALL ABOUT THE GAME AND HOW YOU PLAY IT.

Baseball

Yes Movement – 2020 Chicago Cubs Player Previews: We Comin’ Out The Yu

By Sam Fels 1457

Funny that this one comes a day after Steven Souza Jr. As at this time last year, Yu Darvish was viewed kind of in the same light, except with a much heavier contract and much more pressure. He was injured, and we didn’t know if he would even be upright much less effective. First he was upright. Then he was very effective. And now it’s a given he will be again. Do we know that? We don’t know anything. We’ve spent twelve years proving that.

Yu Darvish 2019

31 starts, 178.2 innings

3.98 ERA   1.10 WHIP    4.18 FIP  

11.5 K/9    2.82 BB/9

45.5 GB%   22.6 HR/FB%

91 ERA-    2.6 fWAR

Overall, the numbers don’t actually look that great for Darvish for 2019. They’re certainly good, but what has everyone excited and confident is the second half, where Darvish ran a 17-to-1 K/BB ratio, held hitters to a .254 wOBA, and ran an ERA and FIP under 3.00. Now, the 17-to-1 ratio is a completely bonkers number that would be asinine to think he could approach again. But he doesn’t have to be really good. The home run ball was still a problem for Darvish even in the second half, but that seems to be a weird spike more than anything else and should come down just because.

YES! YES! YES!: Trying to track what Darvish needs to do this year by looking at what changed for him halfway through last year can be a hilarious experience, because the dude throws like eight pitches. Which seemed to get him in trouble in the first half of last year, when he would Javy Vasquez his way through ABs and innings by having to show his entire arsenal within them. Even if he couldn’t control half or more of it.

Darvish leaned on his cutter and sinker more than his fastball when things took off, though this spring he has been going back to his four-seam which has touched 98. That seems unsustainable as Yu has never averaged more than 95 on it, but he is always tinkering to get more spin or movement and we all know the magical powers of PITCH LAB 2021 so maybe he’s found something. On any given day Darvish could have a different three pitches working than the last one, so it’s probably not even worth worrying about.

The only thing Darvish really needs to be the Cubs best pitcher is control. His first year here saw him walk nearly five hitters per nine. His first half last year was more of the same. When he stopped doing that, he was dominant. Some of that with Yu is confidence, as you can tell when he’s afraid to come into the zone or induce contact. And he still would rather strike everyone out than get grounders, so he might need to accentuate that a little more this year. But still, overall his K numbers and walk numbers were in line with what he did in his career, so it’s probably ok to expect what the Cubs got as the whole of 2019 than the last couple months of the season.

YOU’RE A B+ PLAYER: Well, the inverse of above, where Darvish can’t find the plate consistently with the fastball, or cutter, or sinker, or whatever else he might offer in the fastball category. Then he gets timid, and starts nibbling with sliders/cutters/splitters/whateverthefuckers, and the walks go up. And then a tendency to go up in the zone continues his home run problems of last year. And that’s been a trend that has risen every year for the last four, so that might just be part of the package now. But if those homers come after one or two walks, that’s an issue. If it’s the occasional solo shot, you can get around that pretty easily. Perhaps the additional smoke (WE WANT DA SMOKE) on his four-seam will allow him to pitch high in the zone with less battered baseballs heading up and over everyone’s head, but if that velocity doesn’t stick around we could be in for another homer-fest.

Additionally, health is always a concern. Yu still missed three quarters of a season recently, and missed a couple starts last year, and has only topped 200 innings twice in seven years. Starters going 200 IP is becoming less and less of a thing, and perhaps with Mills and one or two others lying around the Cubs are more buttressed for not having any starters who are going to go that far. But you also wouldn’t want to be tossing Alec Mills or James Norwood or some other jamoke for starts more than you absolutely had to.

Dragon Or Fickle?: Darvish is something of the de facto ace on this team, though really it has two high-end #2s in Yu and Hendricks and then two low-end #4s in Lester and Quintana (though Q has the potential to be more). Again, the unholy strikeout monster of last year’s second half is not what you’re going to get. But Darvish did have something click where the walks went away, and that feels like it’s more permanent. If he gets a little contact-luck he could flirt with an All-Star appearance, and “solid” feels like the absolute floor of what the Cubs will get this summer. If everything goes right, down-ballot Cy consideration is within range. The guess here is he’s just short of that, but everyone will be more than happy with what they get.

Baseball

Yes Movement – 2020 Chicago Cubs Player Previews: Steven Souza Jr.

By Sam Fels 1275

There’s probably more attention on Steven Souza than he would have ever guessed, or anyone who knows him would have guessed, simply because he was the only signing the Cubs made this year for the lineup (Jason Kipnis very well might not count). He’s also more of a symbol, which isn’t really fair to him as it has nothing to do with him, because it’s deflating that he’s the type of player the Cubs claim they’re only able to sign. Low-cost, low-risk, possibly high-reward. But you only sign those players when you have basically everything else set. The Cubs don’t. And they kind of need Souza to not only make it through the season without all of the king’s horses and all the king’s men being called, but they need him to produce. So they can say it’s “low-risk” but it kind of isn’t.

Steven Souza Jr. 2019

There wasn’t one

That’s the problem. And he didn’t even really play in 2018, either, with only 72 games chalked up. Souza missed all of April ’18 and basically all of June too, so he comes in with a very spotty health outlook. You have to go back to 2017, with Tampa, when Souza was a 3.4-WAR player thanks to a power surge where a quarter of his flies left the yard. He also totaled up 16 steals, which he won’t in Chicago thanks to his knee being discarded Reese’s wrappers at this point. So really, what the Cubs are asking is can he still hit the ball really hard, which he did once upon a time.

YES! YES! YES: Souza, to be effective, has to balance out his copious amounts of strikeouts with walks and power. He’s done that exactly once in his career, though again, we’re only talking about really three and a half years in the majors. Luckily for the Cubs, that was in his last full season, though that’s getting farther in the rearview. The good news is that Souza was making loud contact before the baseball became filled with flubber, so if he’s healthy it’s not really getting out over your skis to expect him to hit the ball really hard again. He’s able to do that without a bunch of wind blowing in on him at Wrigley to start the year, and he piles up a few more homers than one might expect.

Souza wasn’t a platoon guy before, but he’ll be one here. In his one standout season, he hit lefties and righties equally as well, though he didn’t generate the same power against lefties as he did pitchers from the other side. He’ll have to do that here, otherwise the Cubs will be basically sending out two Almoras against left-handed pitching.

Defensively, at least going back three years now, Souza was a plus in right field in Tampa and utterly horrible in center, but the Cubs won’t be asking him to play center much if at all. Again, given the health problems the past two seasons the Cubs will probably be happy if he can stand in center and not have his shins shatter for the whole season, and when he plays the Cubs could feature Almora in center and Happ in left which would could cheat over to him a touch. Again, no miracles out there expected, but competence will do.

YOU’RE A B+ PLAYER: First and foremost if things go TWANG! or BUST! on him, the Cubs’ “depth” absolutely erodes instantly. You’d be looking at Heyward playing every day, or Almora or Happ shifting to right against lefties. Or Bryant would have to play the outfield far more often, and you’d have holes at third and second, or at best you’d be “fine” there unless Nico Hoerner is actually a star (probably not) and pitchers keep throwing David Bote low fastballs just because he’s such a nice guy. It’s all a problem.

If healthy, but Souza can’t balance out his Ks with on-base skills he becomes a sucking sound anyway. He’s not going to hit for average, and his leg injuries might have sapped him of the ability to hit for power. So far he’s managed a couple doubles in Mesa, but spring training is hardly an indicator. The worrying thing is that in the one season when Souza was a weapon, most of his power came against breaking pitches. So did most of his whiffs. Which makes you think he just got a lot of mistakes to hit. And hey, you can make a career out of just hitting mistakes and that’s what the Cubs are hoping. But when your best numbers are on change-ups high in the zone…you can’t count on getting a bevy of those and at a constant rate.

Dragon Or Fickle?: This one’s hard to call. It’s hard to even know what Souza was as a player before he became bionic. He’ll tell you his 2018 was ruined by injuries, and of course he never made the post last year. When last seen healthy, he would be exactly what this team needs. But no one can tell you if he was that consistently. I don’t think he’ll be Descalso bad, and of course there’s the fear of his troubled body in the hands of a Cubs medical staff that couldn’t keep anyone healthy last year.

You’re probably looking at what he was in his first two years in Tampa. A part-timer with a little more pop than you would usually get from that role, doesn’t immolate himself in the field, and is worth about 1.0 fWAR. Maybe gets some BABIP luck or some friendly winds and is worth a touch more. And I think most would take that from a fourth or fifth outfielder.

Baseball

Yes Movement – 2020 Chicago Cubs Player Previews: J-Hey What Can I Do

By Sam Fels 1467

It says something, though I’m not sure what, that in a winter when the Cubs main objective was to lower their payroll there was barely a whisper about moving Jason Heyward. After all, there can’t be a player who’s had more of a disconnect between his production and his paycheck. But some of that view of his production is skewed, by fans and by other teams. Some of it is use. Some of it is that Heyward has been such a mensch even while struggling that some people don’t want to say anything bad. Let’s see if we can’t cut through to the truth and what Heyward can be in 2020.

Jason Heyward 2019

147 games, 589 PA

.251/.343/.429

.328 wOBA  101 wRC+

11.5 BB%  18.7 K%

-1.7 Defensive Runs

1.9 fWAR

Heyward’s 2019 numbers are tempting to reduce to this: .264/.365/.456 for a 115 wRC+. That’s his marks against right-handers only. It’s not dominant, but it’s more than useful. Heyward’s inclusion against lefties was partly down to the failures of others (Almora, Happ for the first four months), and maybe that won’t be necessary now. His defensive mark, the first negative of his career, was due to having to play center more often than ever before in Chicago. Again, that shouldn’t have to happen this year, but still could. Perhaps no player’s worth is going to be more determined by how he’s used, and how he has to be used, than J-Hey’s.

YES! YES! YES!: The optimal outcome is that Happ and Almora and Souza keep Heyward’s appearances against lefties to a minimum. Perhaps this is where the new three-batter rule comes into effect for Heyward, as there will be less and less LOOGYs around to ruin his last one or two ABs of a game. I suppose lineup construction would also come into this, where if Heyward were surrounded by righties it would be even harder to get lefties out of the pen to him. The make-up of the Cubs likely everyday lineup seems to make this likely. He could hit 9th with Bryant behind him, or between Contreras and Bote/Hoerner/whoever in the sixth spot.

Heyward’s production against righties has improved every year he’s been a Cub — 75, 94, 100, and 115 wRC+ marks. I don’t know that he can get up much higher than last year’s, but given his contact-type numbers last year you could also safely say it won’t sink too much either. Meanwhile, his four seasons here have never seen him be any good against lefties, so the Cubs should try and write off that possibility as much as they can.

His defense isn’t as much as a given. Even in just right field, his UZR and UZR/150 has dropped every season he’s been here, and at 31 in August he just isn’t going to be able to patrol center regularly (few in their 30s can, is what we’re learning. That doesn’t mean Cubs fans should expect him to look like Castellanos’s “Attacked By Bees” style out there in 2020, and maybe losing the wear and tear of starts in center helps a bit. He’ll still be a plus out there, he just might not be a force there anymore.

YOU’RE A B+ PLAYER: Again, this has more to do with what goes on around Heyward than himself. If Happ and/or Almora fall on their face again, he’ll have to play more center than is ideal. If Souza can’t form a decent platoon with him in right, he’ll have to play against lefties more often. While he’s only 30 right now, this is still Heyward’s 11th season, and those miles pile up. Restricting his workload a bit is probably key to keeping him fresh and spritely when he is playing. All of these are also dependent on everyone’s health. One injury in the outfield and the Cubs will have someone doing things that are going to be a bit out of water for them–Souza every day, or Almora every day, or Heyward every day and in center. Any of these things weaken the Cubs’ bottom of the order in a hurry, and their outfield defense. And the Cubs don’t have that margin for error.

Dragon or Fickle?: It’s always a bad idea to predict health for a team, especially when Souza has a bionic leg already. An injury or missed time for Souza the Cubs could probably deal with by having Happ slide to right and Almora in center against lefties. Anyone else and it gets tricky. But that’s what the Cubs are counting on.

If they get it, then Heyward will be the solid player he’s been the past two seasons. Reduced time means that 2.0 fWAR is probably what you’re looking at if everything goes well, along with the slowly declining defense (should be noted Statcast still likes Heyward defensively a lot). And you could certainly do a whole lot worse than that.

And hey, if it works, maybe you open up a market for him next winter to avoid having to trade players that are more important. But let’s run that kitten over when we get to it.

Baseball

Yes Movement – 2020 Chicago Cubs Player Previews: Maybe He Won’t Put Us In AA

By Sam Fels 1306

Perhaps we should have known things would go a little backwards on the Cubs in time when this regime’s first ever draft pick turned out to hit a bunch of ground balls, didn’t walk much, and was surprisingly slow. Kind of everything they told us they wouldn’t do when they walked in the door. Albert Almora has probably blown his chance to be a full-time centerfielder here. But he still very well might have a role to play with this team, and maybe as a part-time player he could possibly flourish. He’d hardly be the first. That’s the hope, anyway.

Albert Almora Jr. 2019

130 games, 363 PA

.246/.271/.381

.271 wOBA, 64 wRC+

4.4 BB%  17.1 K%

-1.1 Defensive Runs

-0.7 fWAR

Well, that’s all terrible.

Almora had simply a disaster of a season, which caused Jason Heyward or Ian Happ to play much more in center than anyone had anticipated. And Almora can’t argue he wasn’t given a chance, because he was basically given the starter’s share of ABs in the first half…and he grounded it to short. And as we know, Almora isn’t going to beat anything out. Even his defense fell, though few believe that’s his permanent state. It was only a year ago he was worth 3.4 Defensive Runs, so that’s probably an anomaly. The Cubs aren’t counting on him now other than to relieve Heyward or Schwarber the duty of hitting against lefties once or twice a week.

YES! YES! YES!: We’re already getting “Best Shape Of His Life!” stories out of Arizona, as well as comments on how we’ll he’s hitting. Which means dick, because Almora has looked good in spring before. The first objective for Almora is to stop hitting the ball on the fucking ground. He’s seen over half of his contact turn the ball green the past two seasons, and you can’t make a living that way. The problem for Almora is at least last year, when he did hit the ball in the air he didn’t hit it very hard, leading to a .184 average on flies. I feel like we’re getting to that point when Homer was training as a boxer and Moe told him, “Ok, maybe punching isn’t your thing.”

Perhaps the commentary on the shape Almora is in is to increase the authority with which he hits everything, and that can only help. Really what Almora has to do is just be a line-drive hitter. He’s not going to bash 20-25 homers but spraying liners all over could see him get back to near a .300 average which he’s teased before. And he has to hit around that to be productive, because he probably isn’t going to walk much. Almora has never had an excessive line-drive rate in the bigs, but that needs to be the goal.

As you might expect with someone who hits the amount of grounders Almora has, he struggles with pitches on or just off either corner and below his waist:

So lifting those pitches is paramount, and Almora is already good at the top of the zone. That appears to be the crux of his work in the spring. Almora has also said he was in a bad mental place last year, which is fair enough. Getting to the ball more directly is a good idea, as coming out and around it was causing his grounder problem (same thing for Heyward in the past).

Almora had a rough go last year against lefties, but that was just part of the whole detritus. In the past he’s been more than effective against them, and only seeing them at least to start the season could be a boon.

YOU’RE A B+ PLAYER: Every spring is littered with stories about a guy being in better or different condition, or changing his swing or approach, or how well he’s doing in games that don’t count. This used to be Jason Heyward’s territory. Obviously we’re not going to believe it until we see it. If Almora can’t lift pitches low in the zone for at least line-drives and continues to pound things into the ground, his Cubs career is pretty much going to be over. He’s also going to need to improve his defense from last year, though that’s the easier task for him. He’ll see a lot of late-inning action out there with Happ sliding over to left when the Cubs have a lead.

Dragon Or Fickle?: I would guess that if Almora is restricted to only platoon-duty, with the occasional spot start else well, and no one gets hurt to force him into the lineup every day, he can basically be David Bote – Outfield Version. Which means he’ll be fine. Nothing more, nothing less. I don’t think his defensive game is going to be a minus again, because his instincts out there are just so good even if his feet aren’t all that quick. And mostly playing against lefties, he should be able to be average or more. And maybe that’s all he is. Maybe he forces his way into more playing time. But if he earns that, he earns that.

Baseball

Yes Movement – 2020 Chicago Cubs Player Previews: Corpse You Up!

By Sam Fels 1210

Well, seems pretty convenient to do this on the day that FanGraphs essentially did it for me. But that’s how the cookie crumbles. There’s a lot riding on Ian Happ, and it seems a shaky boat to put your inventory on. But that’s how the Cubs wanted it. And maybe it’s just crazy enough to work. If Happ hits, the lineup goes at least six deep with at least solid contributor Heyward behind it and dude that’s totally fine in David Bote. If Happ doesn’t hit…then you get more Albert Almora. No one wants that. Not even Albert Almora. Or Peter Criss.

So let’s go through it.

Ian Happ 2019

58 games, 156 PA

.264/.333/.564

.368 wOBA  127 wRC+

9.6 BB%  25.0 K%

2.9 Defensive Runs

1.5 fWAR

What this article only makes passing mention of is that before that last week of the season, or last two weeks, Happ’s numbers were pretty ugly. That they could swing so wildly with just a handful of ABs is proof of what playing just a third of the season can do. Maybe that last week in an indicator of what he can do. Maybe the month before it is a better one. Maybe that first couple weeks he was up, when he did hit as well, are. Who the fuck knows? Still, in a third of a season he was worth that WAR, which would have him running at a 4.0-WAR season over a full campaign. If he is indeed that guy. Which no one knows.

It’s gone unnoticed, but Happ was actually a plus-center fielder last year, which means he was better out there than Almora was, and that’s supposedly the one bonus of having Almora. Now, I don’t think Almora is actually a negative outfielder, and last year was just one of those things, but the improvement in Happ’s game there should be noted. Again, it’s a small sample, but we’re talking about a guy who’s only 25 and only gaining experience at a position he’s barely played for three seasons. He’s never going to be prime Lorenzo Cain out there, but he doesn’t have to be given Wrigley’s tight environs. Only Pittsburgh is a center field he’ll spend extended time in that’s cavernous, so he just has to be fine. And he’s been that. And could be more.

YES! YES! YES!: For Happ to have a successful campaign, it’s not that he has to be what he was the last week of the season when he was Mike Trout for a week. He doesn’t even have to be quite what his overall numbers were last year over a full season, but that would be nice. And he’s capable of that. He’s also capable of being left-handed Almora. But we’ll get to that.

As Tony Wolfe points out here, when Happ gets the bat to the ball, he’s as good as there is. The contact is loud and proud. So it’s about can he make more contact. And as Wolfe says, Happ swung more without increasing his swinging-strike percentage, which is encouraging. So it would seem to be the key for Happ this year is finding strikes and not being perfect, and attacking the ones he gets no matter when he gets them.

Of course, it won’t take long for pitchers to discover that they can get Happ high in the zone:

He was also woeful against fastballs in general. He can’t simply let fastballs at the top of the zone pass because he’ll be down 0-2 all day and all year. Much like Schwarber, if he can just start taking those high fastballs the other way enough to bring pitchers down, he could go bonkers. But it would seem his entire 2020 is going to hinge on what he does at the top of the zone.

You’re A B+ Player: The path for Happ to fall down the wishing well, and hence put his entire Cubs career into oblivion likely, is he never catches up to those high fastballs and his new swing-heavy approach does start to lead to more whiffs. Happ is always going to have a somewhat bloated K-rate, just like the rest of this team. But at 20-25% that’s manageable. Anything above that it’s not, because his greater swing-tendencies will not provide the walks to balance it out. Pitchers will start attacking him up in the zone from jump street, so we’ll find out early I’m sure.

If he can’t hit, the Cubs will probably run for the theoretical better defense of Almora or stuffing Souza into right and Heyward into center if either of them start hitting. Or Bryant into right and Bote over to third if one of Kipnis, Descalso, or Hoerner hits. But look at how much moves and how thin things get if Happ doesn’t make center his. It’s all a problem.

Dragon Or Fickle?: I’m not expecting a 127 wRC+ for a year. But I would make a bet on 115-120, which will do the Cubs more than fine. I also would wager that Happ’s defense continues to improve to the point where he’s a plus out there all season, not just in spot duty in the season’s last two months. Happ made a big adjustment in pushing himself to swing more without sending his strikeouts to the moon, so getting to high fastballs doesn’t feel like it should be something beyond him. And really, he’s on the same trajectory as Schwarber. First round pick, big splash at first, and then two years of figuring it out when the league picked them apart. Happ didn’t have the knee injury in the middle. We saw what happened with Schwarber is his fourth year of playing at the top level. Perhaps it’s Happ’s turn?

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