There’s a lot of anxiety about the D-corps this year because for the first time in this era, there seem to be more questions than answers. Nowhere is this more evident than the 3rd pairing. Maybe it’s just that we’ve been spoiled with both a deep and overperforming D-corps throughout most of this Hawks era. But looking at these options is a bit like rummaging through the fridge after a bender. One of these guys is going to pair with Forsling, so let’s see if we can conjure who would be the best fit. (All of this assumes Franson doesn’t make the team. If he does, I’d be shocked if he weren’t the 6th D-man.)
Fitting after doing Toronto yesterday (and boy are our hips and hamstrings sore!), we move to the Metro Division and start with a team that might be Toronto minus one or two years, and somewhat doing it in reverse. The Carolina Hurricanes certainly have the blue line of a true contender. Now they’ve added at worst a representative goalie. The question is do they have the hosses up front to make some noise in the East’s tougher division? And is Teuvo Teravainen the best Hurricane right now? Or the best one ever?
Carolina Hurricanes
’16-’17 Record: 36-31-15 87 points (7th in the Metro)
Team Stats: 51.1 CF% (6th) 50.4 SF% (16th) 50.7 SCF% (13th) 7.3 SH% (2oth) .912 SV% (29th)
Special Teams: 17.7 PP% (21st) 84.2 PK % (6th)
Behold, the next stop on this crazy train through the Blackhawks’ so-called defense corps is upon us! Today we take a look at the only remaining Swedish defenseman that dons the Four Feathers, or at least the only one worth giving half a shit about anymore (if Gustafsson and Svedberg still do anything for you, I am truly sorry). Gustav Forsling went from fourth round pick to impressive prospect, meaning Jim Benning couldn’t wait to trade him back when he was convincing himself that his ’96 Camry of a team was a Porsche. Now a year into his NHL career, we’ve seen that there is still some work to do for Gustav. Let’s dig in.
2016-17 Stats
38 GP – 2 G, 3 A, 5 P
48.5 CF%, 58.1% oZS%, 49.1 dZS%
ATOI: 14:49
A Look Back: Forsling clearly wasn’t great last season, but it could’ve been a lot worse than it was. Not being able to break 50% of the shot share is obviously a concern, especially when starting nearly 60% of his shifts in the offensive zone, but it’s no secret the Blackhawks overall were not the possession monster they’ve been last year, so that ended up being only a -2.9% CFrel for Fors. As a 20-year-old adjusting to a new country, new ice size, and a whole new level of competition, I will take that as a starting point, because the assumption is it should only improve from here.
Strangely, one of the most encouraging aspects of last season for Fors was the fact that he accepted his demotion to Rockford. He had a clause built into his ELC with the Hawks that if they tried to demote him from the NHL squad, he could opt to go back to Sweden in play there instead of accepting a demotion to the A. I try not to read too much into this shit, but the fact that he went down there instead of taking his rock and going home shows me that he realizes being in the Hawks system is important. It may have taken some convincing from the Hawks at some point, but at least it happened. Forsling is no doubt the Hawks best prospect on the blue line, so having him in their hands to develop somehow is important. He also was pretty good for the Hogs, putting up 1 goal and 7 assists in 30 games.
For a while when I watched video of Forsling, I almost saw him as Duncan Keith-lite. I have since come down from that high. But for better or worse, I see a whole lot of Nick Leddy in him now. Forsling’s play last year was about what you’d expect from a young player adjusting to all of the change that comes at the NHL level. He looked lost at times, made some mistakes with the puck, and yet still was able to show some flashes of his skill. If you remember when Leddy first came up, he was a lot like that. In fact, Leddy’s rookie numbers are eerily similar to Forsling’s; in 46 games he put up 4 goals and 3 assists, and compiled a 50.3 CF% (-5.3 CFrel%) with a 62.2 oZS%.
The Leddy saga ended poorly for the Blackhawks, as they ended up having to trade him for a dude named after a dance and a wet sock or two. Forsling can end up being the same type of player as Leddy, which in reality is badly needed on this Blackhawks team, because Keith isn’t what he once was and Kempny can’t provide all the speed by himself. The concern is that Q might fuck it up again, like he did with Leddy before and Kempny just last year.
A Look Ahead: This season is going to be hugely important for Forsling. If he can take the next step toward the potential that had Vancouver fans mad at ol’ Jimbo when they traded him, he could be a key part of this Blackhawks blue line. There’s obviously things to improve upon, but with a year under his belt and as he continues to improve and grow, one would hope the next step would come rather easily.
He’s likely to make the NHL squad out of training camp again, and he’ll probably get placed on third pair and tasked with bum-slaying, if there is still such a thing in the NHL. Who his partner would be is anyone’s guess (it could even be YOU!) but one would hope Q isn’t stupid enough to look the gift horse that is Cody Franson in the mouth during training camp. Franson isn’t anything special, and certainly not a savior, but he’s better than anyone the Hawks have outside of their top four, including Forsling, and has a good offensive game. He could be a great partner for Forlsing to grow alongside in those third line minutes.
Alternatively, he could get paired with Seabrook because Q wants some sort of bullshit balance, and those two will likely get their faces punched in for 15 minutes a night. I can already see Forsling running all over the blue line to try to cover for his partner while Seabrook falls over to pick up a jalapeño so he can adorn his nachos. Let’s just hope we don’t have to see this one.
I know it hasn’t quite been our MO thus far to be uplifting about these blue liners, because the outlook is bleak. But Forsling still has potential, and is still extremely young. As much as it may sound like a hyperbole, he could end up being a huge impact player this season for Chicago. If he takes the next step and ends up being a serviceable NHL defenseman, the blue line situation will look slightly less bleak. If he doesn’t, we might just get to see how many minutes Duncan Keith can play consecutively before shitting his pants and dying.
Statistics via Hockey Reference
Photo via CSN Chicago
Previous Player Previews
The dichotomy of the Toronto Maple Leafs this year is probably going to drive you utterly insane. On the one hand, there’s likely no other team in the East that you’d be more excited to watch. They are loaded with young, fast talent marshaled by a coach who knows how to play a possession game. They are poised to do many big things this year, and their first three lines could honestly pour in the goals. 300 goals is not out of the question for this outfit.
On the other, the noise generated by the Leafs and more specifically their stupidly carnivorous media and fans has always been outsized by a huge margin for a team that until last year sucked to the nth degree. What’s it going to be when they’re a genuine Cup contender now? It’s probably not going to be like anything you’ve ever seen, because the last time the Leafs were this close Izzy was still in Guns N’ Roses. You’ll be sick of it by December 1st, guaranteed.
Strap in.
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS
’16-’17 Record: 40-27-15 95 points (4th in the Flortheast) Bounced in 1st round by the Caps
Team Stats 5v5: 50.3 CF% (13th) 49.2 SF% (20th) 51.7 SCF% (7th) 8.3 SH% (8th) .929 SV% (19th)
Oh Seabrook, where do we go from here? So many moments, so many Cups, so many overtime goals, and yet here we stand. A dismal defensive showing, a contract as bloated as you are, a problematic defense with you right at the heart of it.
It must’ve been a really odd season for the hockey press that is looking for any excuse to drop to their knees for Steve Yzerman. Steven Stamkos got hurt, as has kind of been his wont in recent years. Ben Bishop was bad, and then he was gone. Tyler Johnson, Valterri Filppula both missed serious chunks of time. And though there was a late charge to get into the playoffs, they missed out after back-to-back conference final-at-least appearances. How could such a thing happen to a team with a GM as genius as Stevie Y? Oh right, the blue line behind Hedman blew chunks. Well guess what? IT STILL DOES! Yzerman has kept salary cap doomsday off for another year or two at least, and the Bolts look ready to regain their place atop the East.
Tampa Bay Lightning
’16-’17 Record: 42-30-10 94 points (5th in the Flortheast)
Team Stats 5v5: 51.2 CF% (7th) 49.8 SF% (18th) 51.7 SCF% (7th) 7.3 SH% (18th) .924 SV% (16th)
Next on our journey of new(ish)-blood D-men is Czech-born Michal Kempný. Kempný’s speed, puck-moving potential, and possession prowess make him one of the more highly anticipated players among us at the Program. While he ended up playing 50 regular season games and 1 playoff game for the Hawks in his first foray on smaller ice, he was often locked in the press box by Quenneville for so much as adjusting his jock incorrectly, much to our chagrin. There’s no better time than now for him to take the bull by the balls, and I think he will.
If you asked me what I thought the best move I thought the Ottawa Senators made this offseason was, I wouldn’t be able to answer the question. This team is so damn pointless that I just found out they signed Johnny Oduya this offseason when I was doing my research for this post. Seriously, looking through their roster on their team site and CapFriendly I discovered some players that #1 – I had never heard of and #2 – I am still not convinced are actual NHL players. If it wasn’t for Erik Karlsson I think we’d all forget this team exists. And we’d be much better off for it.
OTTAWA SENATORS
’16-’17 Record: 44-28-10 98 points 2nd in the Flortheast
Team Stats: 48.57 CF% (22nd) 50.1 SF% (17th) 48.15 SCF% (24th) 7.01 EVSH% (23rd) .926 EVSV% (1oth) 17.0 PP% (23rd) 79.7 PK% (22nd)
Goalies: Craig Anderson had one of the inspirational stories in hockey last year, and deservedly won the Masterton Trophy. He stepped away from the game for good reason, being with his wife while she underwent treatment for cancer. He returned to the team near the end of January and went on to finish the season strong, with a .926 save percentage and an impressive .942 mark at evens. Mike “Trojan” Condon played in most of the games that Anderson missed and was rather mundane .914 save percentage overall and a slightly better but still flaccid .915 at evens. Anderson likely won’t miss time this year barring an injury, and even at 36 years old should be solid for them in net.
Defense: The Senators are blessed to have been gifted the best defenseman since Lidstrom when they got Erik Karlsson 15th overall in the 2008 draft. He has risen head and shoulders above the rest of the NHL blue-liners the past two years, and is no doubt one of the five best players in the league today overall. Karlsson has proven to be able to carry this team of nobodies for years, and he’ll probably do it again this year, because the group they’ve assembled around him on this blue line is pitiful.
Dion Phaneuf is somehow still a thing, and still making half a million more than EK65. Cody Ceci was supposed to be something at some point, I think, but he sucks too. They signed Oduya apparently, but as we saw last year his best days are long behind him. After that I am not sure the rest of these dudes are real. I think I have heard of Mark Borowecki, but I couldn’t pick him out of a lineup. There is no way Frederick Claesson isn’t a rejected Game of Thrones character name. Seriously, without Karlsson this is a group of beer league dudes getting caught way out of their depth. But because they have Karlsson they’ll be a middling defensive unit yet again.
Forwards: Welcome to Part Three of today’s episode, “Who In The World Plays For The Ottawa Senators?” I can’t believe how many of these players I have never heard of. They’re paying a dude named Zack Smith $3.25mildo; his career high in points is 36, in 2015-16. They’re paying Clarke MacAruther, he of a combined 8 games played and zero points over the past two seasons, a hefty $4.65mildo. Dumb motherfucker Alexandre Burrows is still around, and then there is something called Jean-Gabriel Pageau. Other alleged hockey players on their roster include Tom Pyatt and Ryan Dzingel.
In reality, though, the Senators aren’t that bad up front. Kyle Turris is a fine center, and entering a contract year at age 28 it wouldn’t be surprising if he had a career year. Bobby Ryan should be able to bounce back from his underwhelming 2016-17 season, although if he gets his comeuppance for being a major shithead and MAGA trash heap, he will blow out a knee or something. Mike Hoffman is legitimately good, and Mark Stone might be. Derrick Brassard is an okay but not overly impressive 2C. So they have some fine top-end forwards, but their depth is a bunch of dudes. Karlsson is still the best offensive player on the team.
Outlook: They still have the best player in their division in Karlsson, and the combination of him and solid goaltending might be enough to keep them in the playoff hunt. That said, they’re well behind Toronto and Tampa Bay (a common theme in this division), and Carey Price is probably going to drag the Habs into the third spot in the division. So the Senators will probably have to either catch lightning in a bottle again, or hope they can do just enough to capture a wild card spot. But starting the year without Karlsson will put them well behind the 8-ball, and if his injury lingers or becomes an issue throughout the season, they’ll have a better shot at the draft lottery than they will the playoffs.
Previous Team Previews
Most of my thoughts on the Montreal Canadiens are contained here. But I won’t miss a chance to shit on them twice. Or hundreds. Whatever it takes. While they might not be poorly coached anymore (though I’m less convinced of Claude Julien’s genius than others), they’re still poorly run, poorly watched, and the kvetching that goes on about them takes up far too much space in our lives. And I don’t think this season is going to be any more pleasant for anyone, although you have to feel sorry for them because this summer they didn’t have an obscenely talented and charismatic player who just happened to be a minority to toss overboard. How could they possibly function?
MONTREAL CANADIENS
’16-’17 Record: 47-26-9 103 points 1st in Flortheast (bounced in 1st round by the Rangers)
Team Stats: 52.4 CF% (3rd) 51.6 SF% (5th) 52.4 SCF% (5th) 7.5 SH% (18th) SV% .932 (4th) 19.7 PP% (13th) 81.1 PK% (14th)
A lot of the ink spilled on the Florida Panthers this summer was in the vein of, “What are they doing?” Three of their top six scorers were simply let go. Reilly Smith was traded to Vegas (don’t every say, “Las”). Jesse Marchessault was taken in the expansion draft. Jaromir Jagr was just allowed to walk. They had yet another front office shuffle, which landed Dale Tallon back into the GM’s chair. They hired Bob Boughner as coach.
Here’s the thing. The Panthers are weird. And they’re weird because they’re owned by a rich guy who is obsessed with the army. And any rich dude obsessed with the army is fucking trouble. He patterned the logo after the army. The uniforms. He wanted the Panthers to be in the game at West Point. I want to pretend he’s like Buster Bluth and calls it, “Army,” but no, this dude served and thinks it should be the foundation of every company he runs, if not the world at large. This is just bad. And as long as he’s there, the Panthers will be weird.
Florida Panthers
’16-’17 Record: 35-36-11 81 points 6th in the Flortheast
Team Stats: 50.5 CF% (11th) 49.2 SF% (21st) 48.8 SCF% (22nd) 6.5 EVSH% (26th) .921 EVSV% (2oth) 17.0 PP% (24th) 85.3 PK% (2nd)
