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You Get What Anyone Gets: Saying Goodbye To The Boston Bruins

By Sam Fels 1932 0

You have to hand it to Brad Marchand. Some people saw “Wag The Dog” and just enjoyed it. But some saw it and thought they could apply it to their own lives, no matter the forum. Because look at all the things his wandering tongue distracted us from.

The first and foremost thing we stopped paying attention to when Marchand wanted to know how to get to everyone’s chocolate center was that the Bruins overall were something of an illusion. Actually, a massive illusion. They were one line and a goalie having a renaissance season.

How do we know that? Because of the way everyone drops when Patrice Bergeron wasn’t on the ice. Charlie McAvoy, the moon-faced mouth-breather that looks like every Tufts student who got lost in Kendall Square on a Saturday afternoon that went wrong, spent most of the year bathing in the plaudits and accolades and the little cartoon tins of Skoal that emote from admirers in Quincy and Dorchester. He was great when Bergeron was keeping the puck in the other end. But every time you looked up this spring, he spent more time in the trail-technique than Sargent Stedenko.

Brad Marchand’s taste-buds-in-wanderlust also kept most people off the fact that Zdeno Chara is old and slow, which tends to happen when one is the size of an armored truck and 40. Good thing they re-signed him for another year. The Hawks beat the Bruins five fucking years ago by going straight at him with speed. How was that going to get better now?

It also, somehow, convinced people that Rick Nash–Rick Goddamn Nash who has been the posterboy for playoff incompetence since just after the last Tool album was released–was a prime deadline pickup.

Rick Nash.

Rick Nash had the same exact season that Brandon Saad did and yet everyone thinks Saad should be turned into cow feed. But it makes Rick Nash the piece you have to have. Seriously, what is this happy horseshit?

All that teeth-gnashing over tongue-lashings, combined with Pierre McGuire’s hit-fetish, swayed people from paying attention to David Backes–he of the $6 million for three more years–managed all of one goal this playoff run. Goes nice with his one goal from last year’s. They make a nice set! Too bad he won’t be able to count to two from here on out but hey, shit happens.

But perhaps the biggest piece of genius that Marchand touched upon when he touched his tongue upon those who did not invite it was that Marchand continued his playoff dog ways that he’s been perfecting since 2012. Coming into this spring, in 47 playoff games Marchand had managed six goals. And sure, the cure for that, at least temporarily, was to play a team that didn’t have a defense and a goalie who was convinced he was a glass of orange juice in Toronto.  There’s curing the disease and just treating the symptoms, though. Put in front of an actual goalie and defense, Marchand managed no goals and four points in four straight losses. Fucking dynamo stuff, that.

It’s kind of amazing how the Bruins got here, with that defense and nothing behind that top line. Sometimes hockey is just fucking weird. It also helped that they were in a division with five garbage teams they could harvest the organs of. Going 12-0 against Ottawa, Detroit, and Montreal sure provides a hell of a shine. Better than turtle wax, you’d have to say.

Naturally, Boston fans and media are taking this defeat lying down like they always do, doing the reverse sirens’ song they specialize in that makes everyone want to leave the East Coast the minute they get off work. Next fall we can look forward to really hot, “NO ONE SANG THE ANTHEM LIKE FAHKIN’ RENE! NO ONE DENIES THIS!” God help us if the Bs hire a woman or minority to replace him, given the oh so liberal nature of the Boston sports scene. It’ll be a full week on FartStool. That is if they’re done complaining about the refs by then. Or 2050.

The Bruins look set for the future, though if McAvoy’s face continues to get in the way of his vision and defense it might not matter. And there’s still Don Sweeney in the GM chair, the guy who decided Dougie Hamilton wasn’t worth it but Torey Krug and his broken GPS were. Highlight stuff there.

So goodbye, Bruins. You were a Copperfield trick that had us all fooled. But eventually, Claudia Schiffer wises up.

 

 

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Watching The Party – FFUD’s Round 2 Preview: Bruins vs Lightning -or- Pints Of Guinness Make You Strong

By Matt McClure 1657 0

 vs 

 

While the Penguins and Capitals take part in what is almost a rote annual exercise at this point elsewhere in the East, since the Bruins made it clear they had their shit together this year around Thanksgiving, this has been the de facto conference final that they and the Lightning have been on a collision course for. And it’s sure to provide some of the most entertaining hockey of the post-season.

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Watching The Party – FFUD’s First Round Preview: Leafs-Bruins or The Complain Department

By Sam Fels 1608 0

 vs. 

SCHEDULE: Game 1 Thursday, Game 2 Saturday, Game 3 April 16th, Game 4 April 19th

We all know the format for the NHL playoffs is pretty stupid. In fact the NHL playoffs, if you really think about it, are kind of stupid. We just played an 82-game regular season to figure out who the best teams are, and now we’re going to subject them to the vagaries of luck and injury in a two-month battle royal that doesn’t really give us the best team, just the hottest one. But let’s leave that and say the divisional system as constructed is a problem. So when fans and media say it’s not fair that two of the seven best teams in the league have to face each other in the first round, they’re not exactly wrong.

But because it’s Toronto and Boston, I don’t give a flying fuck. Fuck ’em.

Let’s break it down.

Goalies: There can’t be a worse person to be than the Leafs goalie in the playoffs. No one is watched by more and more closely. And really, Freddie Andersen has always been just good enough to break your heart. He was excellent two years ago in the first round against Nashville, but only played five games. His three other campaigns in the playoffs have not been impressive, though some were effected by Bruce Boudreau’s treating his goalies like they were foosball players. Really, Andersen had the same season this year that he did last year, and he was fine against the Caps. But fine wasn’t enough then, and fine probably isn’t going to be enough against the Bruins. He is capable of more, we’ve just rarely seen it.

If we wrote this a couple months ago, we’d say the Bruins have a big advantage here. But Tuuke Nuke ’em has only been ok since the end of February and was horrific in three April starts. However his playoff pedigree is far ahead of Andersen’s, and he wasn’t the problem against the Senators last year. So it’s whether we go with his current form, which is basically “meh,” or what he’s done in the playoffs before which is much more. Still, I would expect Tuukka to be slightly better than Freddie at worst.

Defense: It’s kind of a measure of the firepower of the Toronto forwards that they amassed as many points as they did with this blue line. It’s still not very good, even if they figured out that Travis Dermott was a neat toy to have every night. It’s not that Jake Gardiner or The Mike Rielly Assassination or Rod Hainsey are bad… it’s just that you’d struggle to think of them as top pairing guys. They’ve been fascinated with Nikita Zaitsev for a couple seasons and yet no one’s quite explained what it is he does. Roman Polak is a circus bear. Even with the Bruins banged up whoever they throw out against Bergeron and Marchand and Pastrnak you’d have to give the B’s the advantage. And if you don’t keep a top line from scoring in a series, you’re kind of fucked.

The Bs will be without Brandon Carlo, as his ankle went Gumby, but they did get the moon-faced mouth-breather Charlie McAvoy back which is more important. He’s reinvigorated Zdeno Chara to a new contract, and he’s one of the bigger reasons that the Bruins were so good this year. Torey Krug as a bum-slayer is what you’d want, and Kevan Miller is better than I think even though his first name is stupid. Adam McQuaid has a big, dumb face and a big, dumb game but thanks to McAvoy the Bs have a top pairing where the Leafs don’t.

Forwards: Whatever arguments you might have with their defense, the only team that can even claim to have the Leafs’ top nine right now is Winnipeg. When JVR and Tyler Bozak are on your third line, you are the envy of pretty much the whole league. Which means the Leafs can get at Krug in his own end and McQuaid anywhere through Kadri and Marleau and Marner and even Plekanec on the 4th line. The depth is scary and the Leafs’ best hope. It’s also a ton of speed the Bs are going to ask Chara to deal with, and he don’t got none no more.

The Bruins will start this series without both Nashes, Riley and Rick. Though missing Rick in the playoffs really isn’t a big deal. Without them though, this starts to look a little one line-ish. It’s a hell of a line, with Pastrnak-Bergeron-Marchand, but they’ll need more. Krejci and Backes on the second isn’t the worst you could do, but comparing it to the Leafs and you see the problem. Donato and Heinen are kids farther down the lineup that could be weapons, especially against the iffy Leafs defense. But the Bs will need some people to return before too long. And Babcock is going to play Komarov 25 minutes anyway. The other thing to note is that since 2011, Brad Marchand has been a playoff dog, and if that continues this definitely tips to the Leafs.

Prediction: I want to pick the Leafs, I really do. Their forward depth is going to be hard to deal with. But I don’t trust their blue line or Andersen to keep the Bs top line off the scoresheet, and the important players on the Bs have all done this before. Unless Marchand pulls his Copperfield act in the spring again, the Bs seem too much. It’s going to take a while, though. Bruins in 7. 

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Game #69 and #70 – Hawks vs. Bruins Preview/ :

By Sam Fels 1799 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Hawks 29-31-8   Bruins 42-15-8

PUCK DROPS: Noon on Saturday, 11:30am on Sunday

TV: NBCSN Chicago Saturday, NBC Sunday

WHAT IS IT, YAH’ PERIOD?: Days Of Y’Orr

As you can see, given the home-and-home nature of this and the fact that they’re both in the afternoon when we will most certainly be sleeping it off (I’m seeing Screaming Females tonight for fuck’s sake), we’re going to combine both previews. Also, the potential for this one to get very ugly for the Hawks also doesn’t inspire us to spill more words than necessary, because everyone needs to prepare for the gore that might ensue here.

It’s been a while since the Hawks have seen a member of the league’s glitterati. The Lightning and Leafs visited at the end of January. That’s the last time they saw the Predators, too. Remember that? When the Hawks deservedly beat the Preds in Nashville and had hope? You probably don’t. I assure you it happened. It’s just been washed away in a tide of sadness and incompetence. So this will be a new-ish feature.

And the Bruins are certainly among the league’s best. They have the third most points in the league with 92, though that still has them only within six points of the Lightning in their division. It also is going to reward them by playing perhaps the fifth or sixth best team in the league in the first round in the Leafs. Great playoff system we have here, where we’ve known the Leafs and Bruins were going to see each other to start things off since before we deep fried our turkeys. Love this league.

This version of the Bruins comes in a bit beat up. Patrice Bergeron is out for a couple weeks. Charlie McAvoy might be out until the playoffs. David Backes is suspended (I’m Jack’s sense of shock). And Bergeron and McAvoy have been the main engines among the skaters as to why there’s been a revival in The North End. Bergeron is having his best offensive season in 10 years, thanks to Riley Nash and Sean Kuraly being able to take a portion of his checking assignments off his hands. Combined with having David Pastrnak and his faithful gargoyle in Marchand on the other side, and they’ve been simply feeding it to teams.

McAvoy has relieved Zdeno Chara of his #1 d-man duties, and has given the Bruins a puck-moving d-man that can dominate games that they really haven’t had since #77 packed it off to Denver. His metrics are some of the best in the league, and Chara can now just concentrate on his own zone which he still blocks most off with his gargantuan reach. It’s allowed Torey Krug to bum-slay on the second pairing, which is what he was built for. It’s a pretty fine-tuned machine when fully on display.

And somehow, being without these two haven’t slowed them down. They’ve won five in a row, with four of those coming without those two. It certainly help when Tuuke Nuke’Em in net is back to his best, with a .920 overall. Rask had been middling the past couple seasons, which has led to the Bruins being middling overall. Not anymore.

Riley Nash has taken Bergeron’s center spot and done pretty well. David Krejci has Rick Nash as a winger and give Krejci real finishers and he’ll do damage. Rookie Jake DeBrusk is on the other side and he’s got a fair amount of dash to him. Remember, Krejci is the only player to lead playoff scoring in two years and never win a Conn Smythe. When Backes returns they have a nifty checking line with him and rookie Danton Heinen.

If there’s a silver lining for the Hawks, it’s that the Bruins won’t have the urgency as some other teams they’ve seen of late. They’re entrenched in second, the Leafs aren’t going to catch them unless they completely come apart and the Lightning are probably out of reach as well. So…there’s that?

For the Hawks, there really aren’t any changes to make now that Carl Dahlstrom has been sent down for being too steady. The lineup you saw on Thursday is what you’re going to get for these two.

Bruce Cassidy is more aggressive than Claude Julien was, which is why you’ve seen the Bruins scoring go up. They get up and go and the blue line is encouraged to join in on the fun. There’s little dump-and-chase here. Even without Bergeron and McAvoy they’re still going to press and pressure. It’s a big test for the Hawks’ defense, and we know how those have gone this season. At least with afternoon games you get a lot of time to erase it from your mind.

 

 

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Game #69 and #70 – Hawks vs. Bruins Q&A: One Of The Extras From The Town

By Sam Fels 1642 0

@DOYMarshall is part of a true collection of rabble at DaysOfYorr.com. But no, he’s not the one who got to make out with Blake Lively. 

Let’s start with Patrice Bergeron. Before he got hurt, he was around a point-per-game, which he hadn’t been since 2007. What’s been the difference? Just the addition of Pastrnak? A loosening of his assignments? Something else?

Not to take anything away from the man himself, but a huge factor in Patrice Bergeron’s offensive resurgence of late has been a fundamental shift in the way this team plays hockey. When you have the world’s best defensive forward, of course you expect him to lock down your side of the ice at all times, particularly when the guys behind him couldn’t stop a heroin addict from stealing all the sugar packets from a Revere Dunkin’ Donuts. Bergeron’s deployment this year, however, is almost unrecognizable. Thanks in no small part to the dependability of the 3rd line of Riley Nash, Danton Heinen, and David Backes, Bergeron, a player with a career offensive zone start percentage of 47.6%, has started nearly 60% of his shifts this season in enemy territory. The decision to ease the defensive burden and recognize that a trio of Bergeron, Brad Marchand, and David Pastrnak should turn the inside of most defensemen’s underwear brown has paid off handsomely. Somehow, on the cusp of turning 33, not only is Bergeron shooting more, he’s also posting a career-best shooting percentage of 13.6. Most first-line forwards start to see their production drop off a cliff around age 28, but a revamped role has more than delayed that death spiral for the Bruins’ future captain.
Is Charlie McAvoy really so good that he’s been able to exhume the corpse of Zdeno Chara?
The list of defensemen that have failed to lighten Zdeno Chara’s load since his Norris Trophy season nearly a decade ago reads longer than a Tolkien novel. Each year as a Matt Hunwick or Joe Morrow or Ohmygodwhyisadammcquaidstillonthisteam faltered the preseason promise of cutting down Big Z’s minutes would fall by the wayside. With the notable exception of one massive fuck-up on the part of management, the problem has been with talent. That problem is gone with the addition of Charlie McAvoy. In his first season, he’s already in the upper echelon of puck possession (currently 5th in Corsi% among defensemen >1000 minutes played). He’s also tops in the league for goals for percentage at 5v5. He’s still early in his development and doesn’t see the kind of penalty kill time you want from a #1 defenseman but he has the potential to be for the Bruins what Duncan Keith has been for you guys.
There are other kids on this team like Jake DeBrusk and Danton Heinen. What should we watch for with them?
As a Bruins’ fan, it’s been amazing this year seeing a coach that understands that young players learn from *gasp* playing hockey instead of watching the likes of Gregory Campbell from the press box. Jake Debrusk and Danton Heinen have given the Bruins some depth scoring that they haven’t seen in a few years. They, along with Pastrnak, McAvoy and guys like Anders Bjork and Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson make up a young, homegrown core similar to the wave we saw ten years ago. As well-positioned as the Bruins are for a run right now, they have finally started planning for the future under Don Sweeney. That kind of foresight was sorely lacking under the Chiarelli-Julien regime.
We’ve had this debate for years in the lab. Is Brad Marchand really that good or is he a product of playing every single shift of his career (until recently) with Bergeron?
Brad Marchand is currently the best player on this team. Full stop. It’s undeniable that playing beside Patrice Bergeron molded him in his early career, but he has emerged out of that shadow over the last 3 seasons. He will lead the Bruins in scoring for the second straight season while continuing to be arguably the second best defensive forward in the league. Yes, he is garbage and we accept this. However, for the first time since the lockout-shortened season, he’s actually drawing more penalties than he’s committing. He’s riding an unbelievably hot streak right now, and with a strong end of season push he could be looking at a 40/50/90 season in just 69 nice games. Bottom line, Brad is elite as fuck.
Did you like the Rick Nash pick up?
Ok, so Rick Nash comes with a ton of baggage with “I don’t give a fuck” embroidered on it. Having said that, I like the trade for a number of reasons. First, he gives David Krejci the best pure scorer he’s had on his wing since Nathan Horton, giving the Bruins a legitimate 2nd line for the first time in years. It’s a signal from management that they believe in this team’s ability to make a deep run right now. Most importantly, Sweeney didn’t mortgage the future for a rental. Had he moved any of the aforementioned young players like Debrusk, who was rumored as a bargaining chip, I’d be a lot more sour on the move.
Is this team Cup-worthy?
Of course the caveat to the optimism surrounding Nash is that this team is still playing for a silver medal in the East. I think the deadline moves made the Bruins a better team, but I don’t know if they pushed them to the front of the race. Barring a major injury to Tampa’s murderers’ row, the Bolts should dance straight to the Cup Finals. On the other hand, there is a special feeling surrounding this Bruins team. Maybe it’s just the fact that they’re actually fun to watch again, but the Garden is buzzing. The tragedy of the current playoff format is that if Boston and Tampa meet up, it won’t be in the Eastern Conference Finals. Should the Bruins survive a matchup with Yzerman’s death squad, though, I would bet my children on the Bruins lifting the Cup.

 

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The Thinking (Or Drinking?) Man’s Awards – At The All-Star Break

By Sam Fels 1940 0

Time to get down again. For those who are new to our deranged family, every so often I like to delve into what the end-of-season awards would look like if everyone actually paid attention to what was really going on during the NHL season. This will always remain my wish, but hey, it’s fun to dream and hope. So let’s get to it.

Hart – This one’s pretty simple. You hand it to Nathan MacKinnon, or Nikita Kucherov if you’re feeling spicy. I don’t think either is a wrong choice. You could even make a case for Phil Kessel, who has kept the Penguins afloat while they try and figure shit out and kick through some fatigue. MVP is still kind of easy to measure. Goals are how games are won, and whoever is scoring and creating most of them, with the least help, probably should get the award.

Vezina – Easy as well. Hand it to Andrei Vasilevskiy. He’s got the league’s highest save-percentage, and the second biggest difference between his actual save-percentage and his expected. So he’s not benefitting hugely from a great defense in front of him.

Calder – Again, this isn’t hard. Mathew Barzal. He’s on pace to have the greatest rookie scoring total in over a decade. He’s made the Islanders relevant, and even interesting even though they can’t play defense worth a shit.

Selke – Ok, this is where the rubber meets the road. As we’ve previously stated, this award always goes to a center that everyone knows, who wins a lot of draws and scores a lot too and has developed a reputation as a defensive center simply because everyone says so. And that center is always Patrice Bergeron. And that’s not entirely wrong. You can make a solid case for him every year. You can for this one. When we looked at this in mid-December, we were actually making a case for Winnipeg’s Adam Lowry. Let’s see if that’s still the case.

For best defensive forward, we should really look at who is holding down attempts against and limiting chances against. When it comes to the top five in attempts against per 60, it’s still Lowry, Bergeron, Tanev, Backes, and Marchand. Strange that they all play on the same lines, eh? (except for Backes). When it comes to types of chances against, the top five in expected goals against per 60 at evens is Mikko Koivu, Lowry, Granlund, Tanev, and Jason Zucker. Again, all linemates. So let’s try and suss it out from who’s benefitting from playing on a great defensive team. Let’s get relative.

When it comes to best relative marks to their team in attempts against per 60, Lowry leads the pack again. He’s followed by Andrew Ladd, Koivu, Brandon Martinook (huh?) and Tanev. When it comes to relative xGA/60, your leaders are Lowry, Hagelin, Kase, Martinook, and Koivu. Again, it looks like Adam Lowry should be getting some votes here. As far as context, Bergeron plays much harder competition than Lowry, but Lowry starts in the offensive zone much less than Bergeron (40% to 60% for Bergeron, though that could be that the Bruins and Bergeron in particular are always driving the play into the offensive zone). Whatever, get original and give it to Lowry.

Norris – This one’s harder. You can’t just give it to the best defensive d-man because driving the play from the back has become so important in today’s game. But it’s gotta be more complicated than just handing it to the d-man with the most points, which would be John Klingberg. If you were going simply by who let up the least chances and attempts, you’d be handing this thing to Dan Hamhuis. Do you really want to do that? No, of course you don’t. If you were going by relative marks to their team in those categories, Hampus Lindholm would have that claim.

When it comes to total contribution, possession-wise, because that’s the entire job description, the leaders in CF/60 relative to their teams are HAMPUS! HAMPUS!, Giordano, Hamilton, Karlsson and Werenski. When it comes to relative xGF%, the only names you’ll see on both lists HAMPUS! HAMPUS! and Dougie Hamilton. Hamilton faces slightly tougher competition than Hampus, and both start in the donkey end the overwhelming majority of the time.

But neither are anywhere near the top of the scoring charts, so you can forget that.

 

Everything Else

The Thinking (Or Drinking?) Man’s Awards

By Sam Fels 2649 0

I like to do this every so often. I’m not sure it makes total sense, and it certainly would make more sense to do it in a couple weeks when the season is half over. But I’m here now and it’s rattling around in my head so let’s do it and circle back in a month or so.

Some of the NHL awards, or more to the point the criteria that are used to pick the winners, are borked. There’s no other way to put it. MVP… that’s usually easy to figure out as long as you don’t get too mired into what “valuable” means and really just pick player of the year. I suppose this year, at least so far, we could get a real dumb debate about how Kucherov and Stamkos are actually vaulting each other and hence aren’t as valuable as say, John Tavares who’s doing more with less. Fine, whatever. Pick any of the three and I don’t think you’re wrong.

Vezina is usually pretty easy, though can get muddied by win totals much like pitcher-wins used to be the defining characteristic for Cy Young winners in the past (like last year. Fucking Rick Porcello?). Still, with save-percentage and GAA are the best we have, and this year it’s Corey Crawford and if he keeps it up and doesn’t even make the finalist list I’m going to go kick several people in the shins and not explain why to leave them in the same fog of confusion I will be in. By any measure it’s Crow, as he’s got the best GAA among starters, the best save-percentage among starters, and the best difference between his save-percentage and his expected save-percentage, given what the team in front of him is surrendering. Good god, he’s been so good.

It’s the Norris and the Selke that always have the cloudiest parameters. The Selke has basically become “What center do we all know who scores a lot, wins faceoffs, and we’re pretty sure has good metrics but don’t check?” And that answer is always Patrice Bergeron. And you could hand this award to Bergeron from here until he retires, take Nick Lidstrom’s last Norris away because that was just stupid, melt it down, turn it into another Selke, and give that to Bergeron, and you wouldn’t really be wrong. But I think we can do better. Let’s see:

So if we’re looking for best defensive forwards, one place we can start is the best forwards at restricting attempts against so far this year. We won’t use goals, because that’s too dependent on the goalies behind these forwards which is out of their control. So you’re best forwards for corsi-against per 60:

  1. Adam Lowry – WPG
  2. Taylor Leier – PHI
  3. Brandon Tanev – WPG
  4. Mikko Salomaki
  5. Pierre-Luc Dubois – CBJ

I can assure you that none of these players will get a Selke vote. But when they’re out there, their teams surrender the least attempts, which has to account for something.

If we go a bit deeper, we can use xGA/60, to not only use pure attempts but the types of chances against that these forwards are on the ice for.

  1. Lowry
  2. Tanev
  3. Jason Zucker – MN
  4. Oskar Sundqvist – STL
  5. Mikko Koivu – MN

Again, we see Lowry and Tanev at the top of the list, and as they play on the same line together, that makes sense.

But it isn’t so simple, is it? Because you’d want to suss out who are doing really dynamo defensive work and who is just benefitting from playing on a great defensive team. So, you’re relative CA/60 leaders are:

  1. H. Sedin – Van
  2. Tanev
  3. Evgeny Dadonov – FLA
  4. Marcus Kruger – CAR
  5. Lowry

And Relative xGA/60 leaders:

  1. Ondrej Kase – ANA
  2. Lowry
  3. Mitch Marner – TOR (ain’t that some shit?)
  4. Zac Rinaldo – AZ (what?)
  5. Carl Hagelin – PIT

So if anyone actually used these numbers, you’d have a pretty convincing case for Adam Lowry this year, yes? The problem of course is that Lowry is skating third line shifts, with Scheifele and Little taking on the harder competition. Yes, Lowry is kicking aside everything he’s seeing, and that shouldn’t be discounted, and he’s also starting the most shifts of anyone in his own zone. So even though he has to start in his own zone the most, he’s making sure the least happens there. So yeah, right now, if the world made sense, Adam Lowry is your Selke front-runner. Don’t sit on a hot stove waiting for any voter to actually say this, though.

The Norris is a bit harder. Or it’s easier, because you could just hand the thing to Erik Karlsson, along with the three others he should have gotten but didn’t because voters were either MJ’d/LeBron’d out or they’re fucking xenophobes or both. But unlike the Selke, you do have to consider the whole package. Karlsson hasn’t won as many as he should because every so often voters decide merely scoring from the back end isn’t enough, and conveniently forget that Karlsson just pushed everything to the other end of the ice all the time and made life easier for everyone.

If this went how this normally went, John Klingberg or Tyson Barrie would get it because they’re the highest scoring d-men. But again, we know better now. We don’t get to vote, but we know better.

So if we wanted to find the overall best d-man, Corsi-percentage would be a good place to start. Who’s preventing attempts and generating more at the same time? Don’t worry, you’ll like this. Your top five d-men in CF%:

  1. Connor Murphy – CHI (funny, don’t hear Mark Potash complaining about the Hjalmarsson trade at the moment)
  2. Noah Hanifin – CAR
  3. Mark Giordano – CGY
  4. Zach Werenski – CBJ
  5. Dougie Hamilton – CGY

Man, that feels good. But like we did with the forwards, let’s go with xGF% too to see the types of chances that are being surrendered and generated as well:

  1. Brandon Davidson – MTL/EDM
  2. Tim Heed – SJ
  3. Roman Polak – TOR (No, I’m serious)
  4. Jared Spurgeon
  5. Yohann Auvitu – EDM

So this is no help. Aside from Spurgeon, these are four d-men who are skating third pairing minutes and are heavily sheltered. And they play on possession-dominant teams for the most part. So let’s do the relative thing again. First relative Corsi-percentage:

  1. Hampus! Hampus! – ANA
  2. Spurgeon
  3. Josh Manson – ANA (He’s mad… he’s glad…)
  4. Werenski
  5. Giordano

And relative xGF%

  1. Hampus! Hampus!
  2. Spurgeon
  3. Christian Djoos – WSH
  4. Murphy
  5. Drew Doughty – LA

Basically I want to hand the Norris to Murphy because… well, because. And if we’re going strictly but non-points and non-goals, there’s a case. There’s probably a stronger one for Spurgeon or Hampus, and you can throw Giordano and Werenski on the list, but you see what we’re doing here. Both Hampus! Hampus! and Murphy have the best relative corsi-against as well, if we’re going by straight defensive metrics as that’s in the job title. I’ve never thought that was fair, because d-men shouldn’t be punished for contributing offensively, but it’s fun to mention. Murphy also has the best relative xGA/60, and Hampus! Hampus! is 3rd.

Basically, Connor Murphy has been fucking excellent, and if hockey had a Fangraphs-like site that people paid attention to, I would spend all my time making his Norris case and dealing with the laughter. And Hampus! Hampus!’s, because I like saying, “Hampus! Hampus!”

Also, you should be pronouncing “Connor Murphy” just like Chappele’s Rick James said, “Charlie Murphy!” right before he punched him.

 

 

Everything Else

Your Friends And Neighbors – ’17-’18 NHL Team Previews: That Old Dirty Water Is A Pretty Good Metaphor For This Lot

By 1783

With Labor Day behind us and something of a crispness in the air, and the incompetence of the Bears about to be on display, it’s time to look forward to what will go on inside the heavily sponsored walls of various arenas around the continent. We’ll go team by team over the next month, so let’s kick this pig…

Boston Bruins

2016-2017: 44-31-7  95 Points   3rd in the Atlantic   Lost in 1st Round (Ottawa 4-2)

Team Stats: 54.3 CF%  55.2 SF%   55.7 SCF%  6.6 SH%  91.3 SV%  21.7 PP%  85.7 PK%

It only seems like 16 years ago or so that the Boston Bruins were an Eastern power, racking up a Cup and another Final appearance. But it all decomposed so quickly, much like Zdeno Chara’s mobility. Hey, think those things might be linked? Toss is some hilariously bad roster and cap managing, with a focus on just about all of the wrong things, and you get a tired, old roster with not enough kids that are going to be able to make up for it. This Bruins teams looks like it’ll happen in a vacuum, as they’ll play the 82 games their allotted and you won’t remember any of them.

Everything Else

Whatever’s Cool With Me – Bruins vs Hawks Preview, Staycation

By 1339

 vs 

Game Time: 11:30AM CDT
TV/Radio: NBC, TVA-S, WGN-AM 720
Of The April Birds: Days of Y’Orr, Cup of Chowder

This morning’s national TV tilt means nothing to the Blackhawks, having wrapped up home ice in the Western Conference yesterday afternoon thanks to the Wild getting blanked in Nashville by the Preds. And in an ideal world, they should just be able to forfeit the remaining four games on the schedule and not even get into their cars to head to the rink from here on out, let alone get on a plane to head out west for the final three games on the road, only one of which will be against a team playing for anything in the Ducks. But that’s not allowed, and today’s opponent, the Bruins, still aren’t out of the woods yet as far as getting into the post-season, so brunch hockey is still going to take place on West Madison.

Everything Else

We On An Award Tour (2/3rds of the way)

By 1636

I did this a little while ago, and we’ve got a couple days here with not much to talk about. So now that the Hawks are exactly two-thirds of the way through the season, thought we’d check back in on the awards chases. And once again we’ll try and look at these things more logically than the actual voters will.

Hart – Connor McDavid

Earlier in the year, this would have been Sidney Crosby no question. But Sid’s scoring rate has slowed just a touch, and the Penguins are kinda good when Sid isn’t on the ice. When McJesus isn’t on the ice for the Oilers, they are straight up bad. Patrick Maroon already has seven more goals this season than he’s ever scored in a season. Leon Draisaitl is straight up clocking chumps. He leads the league in points. You don’t have to overthink this one much.