Game #55 Preview
With the Hawks in a malaise, and no answer or savior over the hills, there’s been rabble-rousing about trades. About blowing the team up. About hitting reset. Now, one of the louder calls has been to shop Brandon Saad.
It’s no secret where we at the FFUD laboratories stand on Saad. We were positively thrilled to be getting a proven two-way skater who could flank Jonathan Toews and put The Captain back on track. We thought that he would resume as the force in transition with back-checking skills to boot, upgrading from Hossa Jr. to Hossa Reincarnate. There were even stars in our eyes about Saad becoming a 30- or 40-goal scorer in his return to Madison St.
The lattermost of those hopes and dreams has been crushed this year, but is all as bad as it seems for our favorite Man Child? In times of doubt, we turn to the data for answers, so what do we know about Saad’s year?
To start, let’s look at a claim I made over on Twitter dot com a few days ago.
I claimed that trading Saad would be shortsighted because his ONLY problem was that his shooting percentage was down 3%. Friend of the Program, Jim Brett, said that he wished he could be sure that the shooting percentage was the explanation. So let’s see whether I was talking with my brain or my colon.
First, let’s start where a lot of the pain comes from: Saad’s raw points totals. Through 54 games, he has 13 goals and 11 assists at all strengths. For comparison, Artemi Panarin—the main piece in the trade to get Saad back—has 13 goals and 29 assists through 53 games. It’s easy to compare the two and think that the Blackhawks got hosed.
So, let’s look at the claim I made, which is that Saad’s only problem is his lower shooting percentage (S%).
| Saad | Team | GP | Goals | Shots | SPG | S% |
| 2013 | CHI | 46 | 10 | 98 | 2.13 | 10.2% |
| 2013-14 | CHI | 78 | 19 | 159 | 2.04 | 11.9% |
| 2014-15 | CHI | 82 | 23 | 203 | 2.48 | 11.3% |
| 2015-16 | CBJ | 78 | 31 | 233 | 2.99 | 13.3% |
| 2016-17 | CBJ | 82 | 24 | 210 | 2.56 | 11.4% |
| 2017-18 | CHI | 54 | 13 | 153 | 2.83 | 8.5% |
Per-game ratio (Shots Per Game [SPG]) rounded to two decimal places for easier reading
Stats relevant to ALL situations
Currently, Saad’s S% is 3.3% lower than his career average prior to this year (11.8%). If we do some math and assume that Saad were shooting at his career percentage this year, he’d have 18 goals, five more than the 13 he has. Extrapolating that over a full season, if Saad were shooting at his career rate, he’d end the year with 27 goals, as opposed to the 19 he’s on pace for.
To recap:
- Saad is currently shooting 3.3% lower than his career average, on pace for 19 goals on the year.
- If he were shooting at his career average of 11.8%, he’d have 18 goals through 54 games, and 27 through 82, which would be his second highest goal total of his career, behind only the year in which he shot at a 13.3% clip (1.5% higher than his career).
- Saad has taken the second-most shots per game (SPG) of his career this year. So he’s getting more chances, and fewer of them are going in than ever before.
Now, let’s take that information and apply it to the bigger points picture. First, a look at what Saad has done to this point in his career.
| Saad | Team | GP | Goals | Assists | Points | GPG | APG | PPG |
| 2013 | CHI | 46 | 10 | 17 | 27 | 0.22 | 0.37 | 0.59 |
| 2013-14 | CHI | 78 | 19 | 28 | 47 | 0.24 | 0.36 | 0.60 |
| 2014-15 | CHI | 82 | 23 | 29 | 52 | 0.28 | 0.35 | 0.63 |
| 2015-16 | CBJ | 78 | 31 | 22 | 53 | 0.40 | 0.28 | 0.68 |
| 2016-17 | CBJ | 82 | 24 | 29 | 53 | 0.29 | 0.35 | 0.65 |
| 2017-18 | CHI | 54 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 0.24 | 0.19 | 0.43 |
Per-game ratios (Goals Per Game [GPG], Assists Per Game [APG] and Points Per Game [PPG]) rounded for easier readability.
If you look at the goals per game (GPG) category, Saad is currently just a bit behind his career pace prior to this year (0.29), and that’s while he’s shooting 3.3% off his career rate. If we extrapolate this year through 82 games at his current 8.5 S%, he would end up with 0.23 GPG vs. his career 0.29 GPG prior to this year. While that would be his worst GPG rate since his rookie year, it isn’t so far off as to sound the alarm.
On the other hand, if we assume Saad shoots at his career 11.8%, then his GPG through 82 would extrapolate to 0.33 GPG.
So, a quick recap:
- At his current S%, Saad’s 82-game GPG ratio would rest at 0.23 (lowest since rookie year).
- At his career S%, Saad’s 82-game GPG ratio would rest at 0.33 (second highest in career).
- Even at his current below-average shooting rate, Saad’s GPG ratio (0.23) is at least close to his career average (0.29). It’s a drop, but it’s not precipitous.
Now, what’s really alarming is Saad’s assists per game (APG) ratio this year. Prior to this year, Saad averaged 0.34 assists per game (or 28 assists per 82 games). This year, he’s on pace for a paltry 15 assists. When we consider assist numbers, there are a whole bunch of variables that can affect the ratios. For instance, we’d have to consider the quality of Saad’s teammates (QoT) and the quality of his competition (QoC).
Since people infinitely smarter than me haven’t yet agreed on the best way to turn QoT and QoC into an agreed-upon algorithm, I’m going to try to give you an idea for what might be affecting Saad’s assist rates in the context of which teammates he’s played with most this year. Please note that this method is incredibly imperfect (I’m pulling a Milbury and making it up as I go), but it might give us an idea for why his assist numbers are as low as they are. (For a bigger and better discussion on passing, check out some of Ryan Stimson’s stuff.)
| TOI WITH | Shots 2018 | S% 2018 | Actual Goals 2018 | S% CAREER | Expected Goals 2018 | Actual vs. Expected | |
| TOEWS | 667 | 154 | 9.7 | 15 | 15.3 | 24 | -9 |
| KEITH | 447 | 129 | 0 | 0 | 4.7 | 6 | -6 |
| SEABROOK | 322 | 81 | 3.7 | 3 | 5.3 | 4 | -1 |
| PANIK* | 289 | 70 | 8.6 | 6 | 12.6 | 9 | -3 |
| KANE | 225 | 189 | 11.1 | 21 | 12.3 | 23 | -2 |
TOI in rounded minutes at ALL strengths, stats at ALL strengths, Expected Goals through 54 games
* = With Hawks Only
First, let’s get some obvious flaws out of the way (outside of the ones we’ve already discussed): Toews probably isn’t ever going to approach his career S%, so his expected goals are likely inflated. And Richard Panik probably isn’t a 12.6% shooter in real life, so his expected goals are also likely inflated. And it’s not like these guys took ALL off their shots while on the ice with Saad. But say everything goes perfectly, and the top six guys whom Saad has played with this year score at their career rates. That’s an extra 21 potential assists Saad is looking at just with the guys he’s played with most this year.
Of course, Saad likely wouldn’t convert each and every one of those 21 potential assists among these linemates. And of course, this assumes that all of the shots these players took were with Saad on the ice, which isn’t the case. The point here is that among the guys Saad has played with the most, each one is shooting either below or well below his career S%, which likely plays a role in Saad’s assist totals. Additionally, Saad is currently playing with guys like Tommy Wingels, Patrick Sharp, and Ryan Hartman, who have shown no scoring prowess thus far this year.
So, to recap this section:
- Saad’s assists per game ratio in 2018 (0.19) versus his career average (0.34) is much more out of step than his goals per game ratios (0.24 vs. 0.29, currently).
- The players Saad has played with most this year are all shooting below their career averages.
- The above methodology is at best a stab at why his assist numbers are so low, given the numerous variables that would go into predicting future assist numbers, including QoT and QoC (which don’t have accepted algorithms). Take it with a grain of salt.
- Saad’s recent partners (Hartman, Sharp, Wingels) are not scorers, further hindering his assist totals.
The numbers above reflect Saad as an individual player. When we look at some of the more team-focused stats, Saad is actually having one of the best years of his career. For instance, he’s currently posting a 58.4 CF% (versus a career CF% of 54.5). And look at the differences among his CF% Rel year-over-year:
| Saad | Team | CF% Rel |
| 2013 | CHI | 1.5 |
| 2013-14 | CHI | 0.4 |
| 2014-15 | CHI | 0.1 |
| 2015-16 | CBJ | 2.9 |
| 2016-17 | CBJ | 6.4 |
| 2017-18 | CHI | 7.3 |
Jumping even deeper down the rabbit hole, let’s look at Saad’s expected goals-for percentage (xGF%). (For a thorough explanation of this stat, click here.) Briefly, the xGF% stat tries to predict the difference between the expected goals for (xGF) and the expected goals against (xGA) while the player is on the ice. Similar to CF%, an xGF% above 50% means that while the player is on the ice, it’s more likely that his team will score than be scored on. Saad’s current xGF% is 53.46, and his xGF% Rel is 5.36. Compare this to some of his other teammates who have played comparable minutes:
| xGF% | xGF% Rel | |
| KANE | 58.46 | 13.22 |
| TOEWS | 55.15 | 8.56 |
| DEBRINCAT | 53.48 | 4.85 |
| SAAD | 53.46 | 5.36 |
| SCHMALTZ | 52.23 | 1.88 |
| ANISIMOV | 50.78 | 1.71 |
Minimum TOI bound: 700 minutes, ALL situations
One final recap:
- Saad’s CF% and CF% Rel are at career highs.
- Saad trails only Kane, Toews, and DeBrincat in xGF%, and only Toews and Kane in xGF% Rel
So, Should the Hawks Trade Saad?
Short answer: NO, unless.
Based on these numbers, Brandon Saad is a 25-year-old LW whose shooting percentage is down, whose assists-per-game ratio is extremely down, whose possession numbers are on the rise, and who would be on pace for 27 goals and 28 assists (55 points, the highest of his career) if he were performing at just his career averages. Unless you believe that Saad peaked at 23–24 (and it is possible, but not likely), trading Brandon Saad would be selling extremely low.
So, what would it take to get a reasonable return on Saad? I asked our very own Feather about this, and he used Rick Nash as a baseline.
Currently, the Rangers are asking for a pick, a player, and a prospect for Rick Nash, who is on an expiring contract, is 33-years-old, and has exactly three more goals than Saad this year. On top of that, Saad vastly exceeds Nash in CF% (58.4 vs. 49), CF% Rel (7.3 vs. 3.8), xGF% (53.46 vs. 50.76) and xGF% Rel (5.36 vs. 3.55). And wouldn’t you know it, Nash is also shooting about 3% lower than his career average, though that might be the age coming out.
Feather suggested that the Hawks could accept nothing less than double that (so essentially, two picks, two players, two prospects) for Saad. If they accepted anything less, we could assume that the Hawks’s front office has no long-term strategy for this team whatsoever. Don’t forget that Saad will be just 27 when his contract expires, and you’d be hard-pressed to find another well-rounded player like him for $6 million a year.
In short, Saad is having a terribly unlucky year. Outside of his low shooting percentage and outrageously low assist-per-game ratio, Saad is having one of his best years in the NHL. Luck can change quickly, so unless the Hawks can find a haul, I’m willing to wait Saad’s funk out, based on past and expected performance.
Sources
Expected statistics (xGF%, xGF% Rel) for All Players
2018 & Career Stats (All Players)
Explanation of Expected stats (xGF, xGF%)
Deeper Explanation of Shot Quality and Expected Goals
Special thanks to Jim Brett for inspiring this article.
First Screen Viewing
Penguins vs. Stars – 7:30
The league’s hottest team in the Penguins, and not far behind them are the Stars. You saw how they can close out a game last night, except they’ll try to do it against a much more powerful scoring machine in Pittsburgh. The Pens are 10-4 since the calendar turned, and the Stars aren’t much worse as you heard Foley say last night. Penguins forwards vs. the Stars defense. It’s all your irresistible force cliches in a game that you could want.
Second Screen Viewing
Blues vs. Jets – 7pm
After destroying the Avs last night the Blues punt it up north to see the Jets, a team they’re still clinging around for the division lead. Mark Scheifele is rumored to be making his return tonight, which is kind of scary that the Jets have been able to be this good without him. The Blues have played more games than both the Jets and Preds so if they have plans of sticking around they’re going to have to get awfully hot awfully fast and beat the teams around them. Should be tasty.
Other Games
Red Wings vs. Islanders – 6pm
Flames vs. Rangers – 6pm
Blue Jackets vs. Capitals – 6pm
Kings vs. Panthers – 6:30
Canucks vs. Hurricanes – 6:30
Oilers vs. Ducks – 9pm
**A break from our regularly scheduled Hawks programming**
Around these parts we all ourselves Real Fans Program, essentially embracing our status as regular-ass people following the team we love and writing what we see from that perspective. This approach has always appealed to me because “fan” is all that I am vis-à-vis my teams (spoiler alert: I never played hockey. @ me from now on if you must). So while gallivanting around Europe recently I was curious what it’s like to be a so-called real fan somewhere else in this world. Fortunately, Stockholm’s SHL team, Djurgårdens (pronounced: YER-garden) was in town when my husband and I were there, so I put on my best anthropologist hat and was DEFINITELY not just looking for a place to drink. Here’s what I found:
In enemy territory. You know how the Predators organ-I-zation gets all butthurt about the number of Hawks fans at their games and they restrict ticket sales to non-Nashville residents? Well, it turns out they’re not alone in this endeavor, but of course because it’s the idiot Predators they do it all wrong. Last Thursday, Djurgårdens played Luleå (pronounced: I have no fucking clue, loo-LEY-ah probably, but I swear these are real words), and all the Luleå fans sat in one section. Actually it was one slice of Hovet arena, a triangle of people from the lower to the upper bowl but in very defined borders.
We didn’t have to specify where we’re from when we bought the tickets (which we actually did have to do for an Italian soccer game earlier in the week, but that’s another story), so I’m not sure if this self-sorting is planned in advance, or if there was information marked on the seating chart, or instructions that we most certainly could not read in Swedish.
Regardless of the process, the result was the concentration of the visitor’s fans in one area, which honestly, if Nashville or some other NHL club were to instigate such a policy, would probably be more fun than sitting with a bunch of random Predators fans.
The opposite of this group was, for lack of a better term, the home team’s super-fans, who were based at the end of the ice (think behind the visitor’s net at the UC, from the 100s to the 300s). Since the visitor’s fans were in one section, by default all the other sections were Djurgårdens fans, but this group at the end of the stadium was the flag-waving, singing, chanting hardcore fans. And these weren’t any three-syllable, easy-singalong chants we’re used to here, such as the ever-pithy “Let’s Go Hawks” as Tommy Hawk wails away on some crappy hand-held drum that looks like a prop from a racially insensitive Western. No—these chants changed cadences, had distinct melodies, and while the fans would repeat a verse for a few minutes, they never repeated the same chant.
When Djurgårdens was on a power play, the song changed. At the start of the second period, it differed from the one at the start of the game. Even goal-celebration songs differed. Djurgårdens scored twice, and after the first goal the song was to the tune of Jingle Bells, I shit you not. After the second goal, though, it was something completely different. And both were a hell of a lot better than stupid-ass Chelsea Dagger but that also is another story.
I don’t speak Swedish (obviously), so the fans very well could have been repeating words and phrases, but the Super Fans moved smoothly from one melody to the next, solely driven by some common understanding of what to do next from the repertoire.
The visitor’s fans, hemmed into their section across the stadium, did the exact same thing, albeit with smaller numbers and slightly fewer flags (holy shit, the flags at these European sports games, why are they so into them?). The result was a reverberation of chants and songs that mirrored the change in momentum on the ice.
Wait for the whistle. My stomping ground at the UC for many years was section 326, and as anyone who’s been up in those rowdy sections knows, you WILL get heckled for walking around during play. At Hovet, however, heckling wasn’t necessary because nobody moved from their seat unless it was intermission. And I mean nobody. A few stragglers came to their seats late, but there was no going to the bathroom, even during the brief TV timeouts when they shoveled the ice (done by dudes, not scantily clad women).
There were no beer runs and no vendors walking around because you could only drink in the two designated bar areas on the concourses. Given the intensity of the fanbases and all those damn flags, maybe restricting alcohol consumption is a good thing, but for me used to my $12 Bud Lights bought at leisure throughout the game it was a catastrophe minor inconvenience. Confused yet compliant, we crammed into the bar area where everyone pounded a beer during intermission, but I couldn’t deny the entire crown had a remarkable attentiveness throughout the actual periods of the play.
Shut up, Lana, what about the game? So what was the actual game like, you say? Well, Djurgårdens’s shitty zone entries reminded me of watching the Hawks, to be honest. They won 2-1, with the game-winning goal kind of a fluky play where the puck dribbled past the goal line under pads. It just proved that teams everywhere need luck as much as they do skill. The pace was extremely fast for both teams, and it was nearly 10 minutes into the first before there was any type of whistle, eventually happening for an icing. The rink was NHL-sized, and although Luleå got a late goal in the 3rd, Djurgårdens held on for the win.
Anything else? The crowd was overwhelmingly male. Like by a 3-1 margin. It was a more skewed sex ratio than you find at an Umphrey’s McGee show. I have no hypothesis for why this was—with what we know about gender equality in Sweden I figured women would be just as interested in a hockey game as men (and I saw plenty of men pushing strollers while I was in Stockholm). It’s not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison, but the aforementioned soccer game in Italy was almost an even mix. Granted, Djurgårdens played on a weeknight and Roma on was a Sunday, so maybe that was a factor? Unfortunately I couldn’t ask any Swedish women without looking like a totally weird foreigner (which I already did).
Oh, and the arena had good pizza, like legitimately good thin crust. So that doughy, uncooked Connie’s crap at the UC can fuck off.
Photo credit: difhockey.se (My pictures from the game were terrible and as much I would like to make you look at my vacation pictures, it’s probably a fire-able offense).
Carping off Good Sir Pullega’s wrap last night, I’ve basically sat here all morning and thought how last night’s game was the perfect showcase for everything that has gone wrong or afflicts the Hawks this season. And seeing as how it very well could be the final nail in this season’s coffin, it makes it even more poignant. But as you know I love to say, you love last night’s game. It says everything you want to say.
Let’s go through it:
1. Goaltending
We can break down the deficiencies on the Hawks roster from here until the end of the world (currently scheduled for next month), but you’re not going to get past this. Thanks to the CBA and the flattening cap, it’s nearly impossible to get your roster of skaters that much more talented than anyone else. It’s why most teams look the same. Even where you think there are gaps, they’re not as big as you think.
So it’s a goalie league. Look at the top of the standings. Tampa, Boston, Nashville, Winnipeg, Vegas, they’re all getting Vezina-level goaltending or close to it. You cannot base success without it now. It may be a devilish task to find 18 skaters that can separate you from the pack, so it’s a hell of a lot easier to find one goalie.
And the Hawks had it, but now they don’t, and you see the results. You’re tempted to not hang Forsberg completely out to dry as after all the Hawks only scored two goals. But goals change games. If he doesn’t let Pitlick’s blast in, the Hawks go into the third tied. Maybe the Stars are still tempted to lock it down as they did in the third anyway, get their point, and take their chances in the extra frame. But probably not as hard core. Maybe with just a slight loosening or a mistake the Hawks can find another goal. One goal changes the complexion of everything.
Looking back over the schedule since Crow went out, you can find a lot of points that Crow might have gotten them. Upon first glance: new year’s eve against Calgary, Jan. 5th against Vegas, Jan. 10th vs. Minnesota, home to the Leafs, maybe in Vancouver, both games recently against the Flames, and last night. Even conservatively, that’s 7-8 points on the board. How much better would things look? Even boil that down to five and it’s a totally different outlook.
And again, Forsberg is merely a backup. He’s not supposed to save your season. How many teams even have a backup that could? Maybe Saros in Nashville? Do we know that for sure? Khudobin in Boston? We saw what he looked like as a starter in the past. Kuemper is doing a fine impression in LA, but he also remains Darcy Kuemper. Let’s just say it’s rare.
I can’t help but think of Montreal a couple years ago when Carey Price basically missed the whole season. Metrically, and by other measures, the Habs were good that year. But none of it mattered because they didn’t get the saves they were accustomed to getting and needed. Ever. And that was that. Price comes back the next year, they’re basically the same team, and they win the division. When you have a Price-caliber goalie, and that’s what Crawford is despite Pierre McGuire forever muddying the perception of him, there’s simply nothing you can do to make up for the loss of him. It’s pretty simple.
2. The lack of a puck-mover
You saw this last night when the Stars went full-Jabba The Hitch in the 3rd. The Hawks didn’t have any answers. They’re not a team built to dump and chase and rugby their way into chances and goals. And that’s fine if you have a quick and creative blue line. The Hawks do not.
Duncan Keith was never PK Subban or Erik Karlsson. Keith’s springing of the offense in the past was his insane ability to create turnovers just ahead of each blue line with a burst of a first step that simply no one else in the league had. He then immediately got the puck up to the forwards with the other team caught in bad positions. He was not a “wheel it out from behind his own net and carry it 160 feet through three guys” guy. It’s why he’s never been a power play QB either. Well, now he doesn’t have that first step, and is still recalibrating his game to that. At times he’s trying to Roger Federer things and try and force even earlier than he did in the past. But that’s often ending in a mess. And he can’t recover like he could.
Beyond that, there’s just no one else. Gustafsson and Forsling were too busy getting buried in their own end to be that guy. Seabrook… well, if he can’t make the pass from his own circles you know how this goes. Kempy is more in the Oduya model in that he can use his wheels to get out of trouble in his own end but is offensively limited. It’s simply not in Murphy’s job description.
So a team can simply stand up at its line, with no fear of being beaten, and force the Hawks to put it in the corners. Which is where…
3. Lack of a forecheck
Here’s the thing. You don’t have to be a really big team to be a good forechecking one. You just have to be quick and determined. The Hawks were never big but could make this work in the past, though it helped that they had Keith or Oduya or a younger Seabrook and Hammer also ready to force things at the blue line as well and squeezing space. They also had Marian Hossa.
Now? Not so much. And I don’t know that it has to be this way. It’s what Saad was supposed to help with. Hinostroza certainly is willing and fast, though maybe just not strong enough. It’s in Duclair too, and he did cause a couple turnovers last night. It’s still supposed to be a Toews specialty. That’s basically someone on every line.
And yet the Hawks remain remarkable easy to break out against, and the defense behind that much easier to get through once teams do. Granted, this is a Hitchcock team and 1-6 the Stars are as solid on defense as you’ll find. But you still have to find a way to even threaten.
I don’t know if they just don’t want to, or they just gave up on weights in the gym or something, but it really shouldn’t look like this. And it shouldn’t look like them trying to come up with Rembrandts at the blue line trying to avoid this and just giving up the puck there instead. When you have a lead against the Hawks, if you just make them go 200 feet there’s nothing they can do. When they can’t play on the rush, they have no answers.
Sadly, the last two things don’t look like they can be fixed in the coming years either, as they are linked. The Hawks don’t have a puck-moving d-man anywhere near ready, unless they plan to toss Jokiharju into the league at 19 (and maybe he could do that but boy is that an ask). Come next October I’d certainly be more than intrigued at what Top Cat, Schmaltz, Hinostroza, Kampf look like with the experience, along with the addition of Sikura and maybe one or two others. But until the Hawks come up with a definitive answer on their blue line, it’s probably all for naught.
The Hawks, in the words of the inimitable Tom Waits, are a battered old suitcase to a hotel someplace, and a wound that will never heal. To the bullets.
– Brent Seabrook had a positively wonderful game tonight. His pass on Toews’s goal channeled 2013, and his purposely wide shot on Arty the One Man Party’s PP tally was a tangible example of the excellent passing we’ve always loved about him. Plus, his Corsi was a robust 67+ at 5v5. It’s no coincidence that he played the second-fewest minutes of all Hawks D-Men at evens, ahead only of Kempný. I don’t know about you, but even with the Hawks losing, I took solace in watching Seabrook play well. Like hot spiked cider on a cold, unforgiving winter’s night.
– The same can’t be said about Jordan Oesterle. He had a nice run coming out of the press box cold for a while, but the magic beans he’d been consuming to give him that extra giddy-up have gone stale. His turnover behind his own net let Stephen “One of the Ones Who Got Away” Johns do his best Russ Tyler impression, burying a knuckler—that Oesterle himself may have set the screen on—from the blue line for the Stars’s second goal in less than a minute. He also had a couple of miscues in the third that ended up not doing any direct damage, but did lead to extended pressure for the Stars early in the third with the Hawks down one. Despite this, and his 44+ CF% on the night, he played more than anyone except Keith. This is your D-corps, folks.
– Anthony Duclair seemed half a step behind everything tonight. He whiffed on a wide-open shot off a Toews pass after stealing the puck from Pissbaby Benn late in the first. His turnover in his own zone led to the Stars’s first goal. From about midway through the second onward, he was a ghost. But his possession numbers were stellar (67+ CF%). He’s still got loads of potential and needs to stay up with DeBrincat and Toews, and eventually be re-signed.
– I want to be mad at Anton Forsberg, by my heart just isn’t in it. At the end of the day, he’s a backup goaltender on a team whose D-Men are either rapidly declining, still learning, or flat-out suck. There’s not much he can do on that first goal, with Radulov firing a perfect saucer pass to Tyler Seguin off the Duclair turnover. Having Oesterle screen him on Johns’s shot can sort of be forgiven. And yes, he needs to stop fucking Tyler Pitlick’s slapper at the end of the second. But then again, it’s perfectly fitting that a guy named Pitlick would score the game winner against the Hawks tonight, isn’t it?
– Connor Murphy started the game on the top pairing and looked pretty good doing it. His CF% of 54+ was inspiring. But he was on the ice for two goals. You can argue that he took a bad angle on the first goal, but given how often he’s been flipped and jerked around this year, it’d be a stretch. And we all saw the third goal: That’s on Forsberg. You’d like to see him get more time with Keith, but with the defensive carousel that Q is throttling into overdrive, it’s impossible to tell.
– Erik Gustafsson looks more like a 5-6 D-Man every night. He’s got decent vision with his passing too, at least when Kane’s on the ice with him. I’d be interested to see him with one of Rutta or Kempný at some point.
– David Kampf probably has a future as a bottom six defensive center. His stick checking was pristine tonight, and he won a few board battles to show off his strength.
– It was nice to see Toews score tonight. He also had a 73+ CF%. But he missed a yawning net in the first off a pass through the Royal Road from DeBrincat, either because he wasn’t expecting the pass or because his skate got caught. Microcosms.
– The chocolates and flowers for Tommy Wingels tonight were a bit much. Foley, Jammer, and Burish barely had time to come up for air between all the kisses they blew at him for TROWING HITS OUT DERE. He had one good hit in the third that separated the puck and drew a penalty, but other than that, I don’t get it. He janked an uncontested rebound off the far post and did nothing other than hit guys the rest of the night. I understand the frustration over this team this year. I understand that we don’t really have any answers. But this whole DA FIRE AND DA PASHUN garbage is already wearing thin. Hits have never been the answer for this team, and they sure as shit aren’t the answer now.
– Brandon Saad did not have a good game, again. He logged a 48+ CF% with Schmaltz and Vinnie. He did set up a few good chances that went unanswered. Like all of you, I want to see him come out of his funk. He’s probably best served playing with Schmaltz and Kane again, but I get how it can be hard to justify it right now. At the end of the day, he’s a good player having both a down and unlucky year.
As it stands, this season is circling the drain. As it stands, the Hawks have good young talent on the front lines but not the back end. As it stands, without Corey Crawford, this team doesn’t have the firepower to make the playoffs. It’s frustrating, it’s out of the ordinary, and it’s hockey, baby.
Onward.
Boozes du Jour: Jefferson’s whiskey into High Life back into whiskey.
Line of the Night: “HIT SOMEONE.” –Adam Burish on how the Hawks could overcome a 3–2 deficit in the third (I usually love Burish, and I get the frustration, but it’s lazy).
First Screen Viewing
Knights vs. Sharks – 9:30
Somehow, this is a battle between 1st and 2nd in the Pacific, even though we were all pretty sure both these teams wouldn’t be any good before the season. Some of us are still in denial about Vegas of course, and though they have a 10-point gap on the Sharks, which is an indictment on the whole league, some of us still think there’s a collapse coming. Maybe this starts it. Maybe not. Seeing as how no team can actually act like they’re doing a job when they get to Vegas. But whatever. The Sharks are in a bit of trouble without Thornton, and yet they’re still here.
Second Screen Viewing
Flames vs. Devils – 6pm
The Flames continue their trip after squeezing out another one against the Hawks. The Devils remain involved in the Metro race. They have three games in hand on the Penguins in second who are ahead of them by a point. Once again, we have a team we have no idea what they’re doing there. Welcome to the NHL. The Flames have their own work to do, still trailing the wild card and Kings in the Pacific.
Other Games
Islanders vs. Sabres – 6pm
Canadiens vs. Flyers – 6pm
Predators vs. Senators – 6:30
Canucks vs. Lightning – 6:30
Avalanche vs. Blues – 7pm
Coyotes vs. Wild – 7pm
vs. 
RECORDS: Stars 31-19-4 Hawks 24-21-8
PUCK DROP: 7:30
TV: NBCSN Chicago
NORTH DALLAS 40: Defending Big D
I’m tired of saying it. You’re tired of reading it. So let’s skip it. Let’s just ask the Hawks to play another good game, which they have been for the most part lately, but actually finish more chances and get a win. Just one. Whatever they’re going to do, or pretend to do, or fool themselves into doing, is going to start with one win. Or it’s just Daffy Duck in the car that Bugs already pulled the one pin out of and is just falling apart around him as he grips the wheel. Of course, a win over the Stars would be a first this year.
The Stars have taken off a bit, and now only sit one point behind the Blues for the third spot in the Central for the last automatic spot, and they have a game in hand. That’s about as high as they can climb, as they have played two more games than the Preds. Then again, that would assume the Preds ever really “turn it on,” despite their standing. But that’s another discussion or another time.
The big factor for the Stars, as you might have guessed with Jabba The Hitch behind the bench, has been the defense. They’re fifth in the league in goals against, third in shots-against, second in even-strength attempts against, and sixth in scoring chances per 60 against. Clearly, Hitch has gotten his paws out of the donut box and into the Stars psyche. They’ve gotten good enough play at least from both THE BISHOP! and Kari Lehtonen, but unlike previous Stars teams they haven’t asked them to do too much. And this is what you get when you do that.
The forwards are still a touch messy. They have a wicked awesome (?) top line of Benn-Seguin-Radulov, which Hitch has tried to break up at times to spread things out. But they’re too good together to do that for too long. Jason Spezza decomposing and thrown something of a wrench in the plan, but Radek Faksa’s grabbed the second center role finally so they’re not as dependent on him. Janmark, Ritchie, and Shore have contributed here and there without quite breaking through, but again, they’ve been enough.
The real strength of the Stars is the blue line. John Klingberg’s 44 assists and glittering metrics should have him at the top of the Norris discussion. Esa Lindell has turned into the perfect partner for him. Perhaps Hitch’s greatest miracle is turning the pairing of Dan Hamhuis and Greg Pateryn into his shutdown one, though Pateryn is something of his Cody Franson at this point. The jig will be up soon enough. Stephen Johns and Julius Honka have been a great third pairing, which will make for something of a headache when Marc Methot is ready to return. Hitch still loves a veteran, after all. The first pairing of Lindell and Klingberg and the third pairing of Johns and Honka (HONKA! HONKA!) dominate possession, and the second one soaks up whatever pressure is around. 1-6 it’s hard to find a better unit outside of Nashville.
For the Hawks, shouldn’t be too many changes. Connor Murphy is no longer sick, so he should slot in for Jan Rutta (and in our dreams, Brent Seabrook). Anton Forsberg should get the net back. But as for lineup changes there isn’t a lot to be done. The Hawks didn’t play badly on Tuesday, they just didn’t finish or get any luck. We know Q likes the look of three of the four lines, and does it really matter what you do with Saad-Hartman-Sharp at this point? No, no it does not.
Let’s not treat this as some referendum. One win isn’t going to change anything. Fuck, three wins on the spin isn’t going to do much. It would just be nice to enjoy a Hawks game again. It’s been a bit, probably since Nashville. Start there, and we’ll figure out the rest later.
Game #54 Preview
This will be the third year we do this. It’s because the trade of Stephen Johns still stings a bit. It’s the trade that the acquisition of Connor Murphy is basically trying to make up for. It’s easy to just say that the punting of Johns simply to get rid of Patrick Sharp’s salary crippled the Hawks blue line to its current state. But is that really true?
Johns has been skating third pairing minutes in Dallas, though he’s flipped at times with Greg Pateryn for second pairing time with Dan Hamhuis. Lately, Ken Hitchcock has found a comfort level with Pateryn and Hamhuis, though he’s not been shy about giving Johns and Honka just about as much time. He’s seeing 13-15 minutes at even-strength per game for the past month.
Metrically, Johns is not having the season he’s had in the past. Of their current regular six, Johns has the worst relative CF% and xGF%. He does start more in his own zone than the top pairing of Klingberg and Lindell, but not as much as Hamhuis and Pateryn which has become something of the shutdown pairing for the Stars.
However, it’s worth taking Johns’s numbers with Julius Honka on their own. Because they’ve taken quite a leap. Honka and Johns together are carrying a 53.4 CF%, and a 52.9 scoring-chance percentage. It’s the best mark he has with any of Dallas’s d-men.
We’re still a long way from learning what Johns is, though getting closer. He’s got 126 games in the NHL, and an additional 100+ in the AHL. So he’s passed that magical 200 professional game mark. What we can say is that he’s best with a puck-mover, where he’s not the one asked to get the puck up the ice solely. Johns’s strengths are in the corners and down low and stepping up at his blue line to squeeze the play. He can do that better behind someone instead of in front of his partner. At least that’s the way it’s worked out so far.
How he would have fit in the Hawks is hard to say, and probably not even worth thinking about. How many times would he have been scratched behind TVR, for instance? While the Hawks might claim different, they were high on him. They tried multiple times to get him out of Notre Dame, and then had to give him special circumstances in Rockford to get him out of South Bend after his junior year. They wanted him in the system badly, and they wanted him in Chicago as well.
It’s just one of those things will never know. If Stan Bowman gets the sack this summer, or soon, the biggest black mark against him will be that he lost too many NHL-worthy prospects for nothing. Johns had to be the sweetener to get the Stars to take Patrick Sharp. Teuvo had to be that so the Canes would take Bryan Bickell. Phillip Danault was punted in a rental-trade for Tomas Fleischmann and Dale Weise. Those three players are almost certainly the difference between this team being a playoff team right now and where they actually are.
In a salary cap world, your cheap, young talent have to be used or moved along for things you actually use. And you get almost no margin for error. The Hawks are learning that now, and some of that error is Stephen Johns-sized.
Game #54 Preview
