It seems a touch pointless to write this now, as Cam Ward was fine in the Winter Classic. He wasn’t great, and perhaps a more athletic goalie would have gotten to Bergeron’s equalizer in the second. But it came on a bad bounce, which is more poor luck than poor play. But it’s the fact that Ward started at all that’s worrying, if only slightly.
This of course could be a case of the Hawks trying to “showcase” Ward in case he can be flogged for a mid-round pick at the deadline. Except teams have 11 years of data on Ward at this point. And if the Hawks had figured anything out with him this season that would lead anyone to believe he’s changed from his Carolina days, then “.888” would be in big, flashing, neon lights to dissuade from that notion. Cam Ward isn’t going anywhere, and if he does it’s because some GM started to drip brain fluid out of their ear and didn’t think much of tossing a 7th-round pick aside. Let’s just say I’m skeptical that was or is the case going forward.
What bothers me, as we’ve repeatedly stated, is that there was no case to start Ward yesterday. Whether the Hawks genuinely believe they can still salvage this season or they’re already turning their eyes to tomorrow, Collin Delia is the choice in either case. And if you think you have to have this game, because it’s your showcase game on national TV and all that, Delia is again the better choice. He’s playing better, he might be the goalie of the future, and on it goes. There’s no equation you can go through that doesn’t have “x = Delia.”
Jeremy Colliton‘s quotes of “guys respecting Ward in the room” and “veteran status” don’t really help much, either. And it’s not only because it’s giving me Dusty Baker “gotta be fair to Holly, dude” flashbacks. Because in his short stint, Colliton has yet to prove he can play hardball with any veteran player aside from Chris Kunitz or Brandon Manning, and that’s batting practice. Cam Ward shouldn’t draw any more water than those two do or did, and yet here we are.
During their streak of incompetence (the second one, in case you were wondering), Colliton never pulled either Crawford or Ward even when they were giving up multiple goals early, and bad ones at times. A goalie-pull isn’t always on the goalie either, and is sometimes used as commentary on how horseshit the skaters have been. That switch was never flipped, though even we said it might look a little awkward for a coach barely in the job to hang Crawford out to dry with all he’s been through. But it certainly was an option to be used, and Colliton never did. And things just got worse. Even Crow’s confidence can be broken. It felt at the time that Colliton didn’t have any answers, or was afraid, or was simply frozen.
So what does that mean for the harder calls that are coming if Colliton can’t even bring himself to sit Ward for yesterday? Gustav Forsling‘s constant nosebleeds will give Coach Cool Youth Pastor some cover when Henri Jokiharju returns from the WJC, but the Brent Seabrook reckoning is coming at some point soon. Does Colliton have the tires to tell that accomplished of a player he’s in a suit for the night? For repeated nights? And that said, what would be the pairings if you sit Forsling? Are you flipping Jokiharju to his off-side to keep the other pairs that are working in tact? Seems a bit much on the kid.
Duncan Keith is still getting the most ice-time, and he was awful yesterday. Connor Murphy and Carl Dahlstrom have taken the hard shifts off of him at least, but they should be creeping up on him in time on ice and they’re not yet. Is it Colliton who will tell Keith he’s a second-pairing player? Do you believe that?
At some point, you have to the coach, no matter your age and experience. The Hawks put Colliton in a near-impossible situation, but that doesn’t mean he can ignore it. Telling Ward to do one would be a nice start, because whatever the players say they know that Delia right now is the better option, and the players want to win every game despite what the team’s aims might be. It would be a good first step to the harder talks and decisions that are coming. But you have to start making these choices first.
Another Winter Classic, another loss for the Hawks. The Hawks played decently for the most part, which makes this loss a bit more frustrating than usual, but you can’t put Boston on the power play and expect them not to score. Still, there’s some good to take from this game. Let’s do the bullets.
– After my total psychotic breakdown about Cam Ward starting, Cam Ward was probably the best Hawk on the ice today. None of the goals he gave up were goals he had a chance on. The first was the result of a bad clearing attempt by Kruger after a weak and off-balance pass from Dahlstrom. Bergeron just picked Kruger’s pocket at the point and swept a pass to a wide open Pastrnak, past an off-kilter Dahlstrom. The second came off an unfortunate deflection off Seabrook’s skate on the PK. With Pastrnak trying to thread a pass to DeBrusk in the blue paint, the puck ricocheted off Seabrook’s skate and directly to Bergeron in the slot. The third was a result of Gustav Forsling being a giant bag of ass. It’s clear that the predictive success of Fels Motherfuck is directly proportional to how red and nude we get toward the person we’re motherfucking, because Ward was really, really good today.
– Brendan Perlini and Dylan “Stop Fucking Calling Me Tyler, Eddie” Sikura looked great early on. Perlini’s goal while open in the slot was a relief, and the way it got set up was really fun to watch. Dahlstrom was on the far boards with the puck and fell down, only to recover and tip the puck to Kampf. Kampf pushed it to Sikura who shot it wide left. Krejci tried to corral it behind the net, only to run into Kampf, who stole it away and fed a perfect pass to Perlini. Perlini saw a whole lot less time later in the game, and it’s hard to understand why, given how noticeable he was early.
– Jonathan Toews had himself a nice game. You can trace Kahun’s goal in the second to Toews’s effort behind the net. After getting tripped, Toews recovered quickly and shoved a strong pass from behind the net to Gus at the point. Gus’s point shot ended up behind Rask thanks to Kahun’s high-slot tip, but none of it happens without Toews showing off some Old Man Strength. He also hit the post late in the third, coming just inches away from tying it up.
– David Kampf had a good game throughout as well. His steal and pass to Perlini in the first was high art, and he had an exceptional break up at center ice with the Bruins on a 5-on-3 PP in the third. The fancy stats don’t flesh it out, but Kampf looked to be in all the right places at all the right times.
– You could not say the same about Gustav Forsling. The game-winning goal was a clinic in why we think Forsling sucks. First, he failed to clear the puck because he was busy getting smashed into the glass by Chris Wagner. He struggled to recover, which put the Blackhawks way out of position up top, forcing Martinsen to try to traverse the length of the ice to cover the far side. Once Forsling finally got to the area code where he should have been, Kuraly simply beat him to the rebound.
You’d be less upset about this if Forsling were delivering the puck movement and offense he’s supposed to provide, but he doesn’t even do that. He was directly responsible for suffocating two Hawks drives because of poor shot choices. If he’s not delivering offense and he clearly sucks on defense, what is it he does here?
– We’ve all had enough of Artie, whether on the second line or in general. His trip led to Boston’s first PP goal, and he couldn’t keep up with play at all. He and Keith brought up the rear with a 41+ CF% in a game in which the Hawks controlled possession with a 55% share.
– That Weezer song about ride-sharing is worse than I could have imagined.
The Hawks put together a decent effort, but they couldn’t overcome the Marchand–Bergeron–Pastrnak line. It’s hard to be mad about this loss, considering how much worse it could have been. It’s over now, and God willing we’ll never have to do another Notre Dame tilt again.
Onward . . .
Booze du Jour: Cruse champagne (they were out of Andre)
Line of the Night: “Anisimov, not moving his feet.” – Pierre, stating the obvious
What better way to nurse a hangover than to watch this Blackhawks team play this Boston team at the unnecessarily hallowed and despicably overrated grounds of Notre Dame? In a successful attempt to prove that hell exists and that it’s taken residence wherever hockey goes, we’ll get to experience arguably the worst fanbase in America cheer on arguably the biggest douchebag in hockey at arguably the biggest sham of a university against inarguably one of the worst teams in hockey. Happy fucking New Year.
Starting with the Bruins, it seems like Tuukka Rask has finally put whatever family demons he was dealing with behind him. Since his leave of absence that spanned a few days in November, Rask has been riding the waves between middling and good. His even-strength save percentage on the year is .925, and his shorthanded percentage is a strong .896. Hilariously, it’s been his performance on the power play that’s done the most harm, as he’s somehow managed to post a .759 on the man advantage, which is really something. He’s coming off a strong performance at Buffalo, pitching a .929 in an overtime win on the 29th.
Per usual, the Bruins rely heavily on Patrice Bergeron (12 G, 19 A), David Pastrnak (23 G, 25 A), and perpetual passenger Brad Marchand (12 G, 29 A) for just about everything. This line has accounted for nearly 41% of all of Boston’s offense this year, and that’s with Bergeron missing a month between November and December with an upper body injury. This line will score, dominate possession (57+ CF%), and then rub your face in it if you let them on the advantage. Of Pastrnak’s 23 goals, 10 have come on the PP, which is second behind Patrik Laine.
Then of course there’s Brad Marchand, who will likely get an honorary degree from Notre Dame for being the most insufferable asshole to visit the stadium since the Class of 2018 graduated. He’s doing his usual routine of scoring just over a point per game while racking up penalty minutes being the most annoying nuisance this side of a dog with the squirts on a white carpet. There is a small chance that he won’t play due to an upper body injury, but given what a horse’s ass he is, bank on him being out there and causing some kind of injury, whether physical or mental, to all involved.
DeBrusk and Krejci anchor the second line, and it looks like Ryan Donato will ride next to them today. DeBrusk is on a 30-goal pace, and when Krejci has scorers on his wing he’s dangerous, so if the Hawks go hot and heavy against the first line (as they should), you can expect some damage from here.
After that, it’s retreads and generated names. Noted Dog Murderer David Backes won’t suit up because he’s a crooked penis in the midst of a three-game suspension for, what else, an illegal hit to the head. Former Blackhawk Joakim Nordstrom plays in the bottom six here, which is probably summation enough. There’s some excitement about former second rounder Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson, but it’s not clear why. Colby Cave or Chris Wagner doing anything for you? No?
The big news on the blue line for the Bruins is the loss of moon-faced Ice Time spokesman Charlie McAvoy. McAvoy has missed extended time once already this year for a concussion and was placed on IR last week with a lower body injury. When McAvoy’s been healthy, he’s been effective offensively, scoring 11 points in 17 games.
Elsewhere, Zdeno Chara continues to do a terrible job of convincing anyone that he isn’t actually Rasputin. At 41, he’s still taking more than 21 minutes a night. He’s also recently returned from an MCL injury, but prior to it, he was playing well on the positive side of the possession ledger. He and Brandon Carlo, who earlier this month snapped a 115-game scoreless streak, serve primarily as the Bruins shutdown pairing. Torey Krug will be a terror in the offensive zone and absolutely nothing else. He’ll pair with John Moore who, probably for the first time in his life, won’t be the whitest person in the room.
As for the men of Four Feathers, hoo boy. Jeremy Colliton announced that he’s starting Cam Ward, according to Eric Lear. There have been several low points this year, but this already ranks in the top five, after Crow hitting his head and Bowman signing Brandon Manning as a solution to a problem the Hawks didn’t have. And he’s doing it because “He’s an important part of our group…Guys respect him and he’s played well for us.” Fuck off with that fish shit. The only thing that might be true about that is “guys respect him.” He’s not important and he has not played well for the Hawks by any metric. Holy shit, Jeremy, your trip to Notre Dame is the time you decide to make the Cool Youth Pastor moniker inapplicable? Someone hit this motherfucker with a surprise left. Either Colliton is really this stupid or this is coming from higher up (think Bowman or McDonough). I’m not sure which would be more infuriating.
There is no reason to start anyone other than Collin Delia no matter what your criteria are. Delia has played better, looked better, and is far, far more Irish than Ward. Christ, he’s posted a .957 against the MacKinnon line twice and Dallas’s “fucking horseshit” line! What else does he have to do to earn this, besides suck for 14 years, apparently? There’s really no argument against him, except if you want the Hawks to purposely tank in an effort for Hughes. But even if that did happen, there’s still a more-than-likely chance they’ll lose the lottery anyway, so, I guess fuck off with that mess.
Jesus Christ, they’re really gonna start Ward. This is like asking your parents for a puppy at Christmas and having them throw pieces of dog shit from a dog that isn’t yours at you on Christmas morning while yelling “NOT UNTIL YOU CLEAN UP AFTER IT.”
Other than this gigantic giardiniera fart, Sikura and Perlini have flipped, putting them on the third and fourth lines, respectively. Even though DeBrincat has done everything and more to earn a Top-6 spot, somehow Wide Dick on the wing with Strome and Kane is sort of working, so that’ll stand pat. The other thing that shouldn’t be working but is, is Keith–Gustafsson, which, whatever. Hockey is stupid sometimes.
The Hawks have had a nice run lately, and ironically, it’s come thanks to a strong power play and goaltending. If Dahlstrom–Murphy can shut down the Bergeron line, the Hawks continue to perform with the man advantage, and Ward somehow gets pulled within the first 10 seconds, you can see them pulling a stunner.
That is, of course, if you can get past all the pomp and circumstance of playing at Notre Dame. You’ll no doubt learn more than you ever wanted to know about its sterilized history, about how Bowman is an alumnus, and about how Jesus Christ is staging his Second Coming at South Bend. It’ll all be made even more insufferable with Pierre, Roenick, and Milbury all having a role in this one, where they will no doubt turn this game into their own personal St. Patrick’s Day of mindless self-indulgence about Notre Dame’s long traditions of grooming boys to be men while pretending they and the university writ large don’t have all the character and fortitude of an unflushed toilet. Oh, and Weezer is playing at some point during an intermission. I sure can’t wait to hear their new hit single about ride-sharing or whatever other banal aspect of rich, white dork culture Rivers Cuomo is peddling as art these days.
We have a working theory around the lab, we’ve kicked it around for years. While some will tell you that Brad Marchand in the best left wing in the game, we tend to think he’s pretty much a product of getting to play with the best two-way center in the game in Patrice Bergeron his entire career. Before this season, Marchand had spent all of four minutes away from Bergeron in his entire career. It would be impossible to separate the two, let’s say. Thanks to Bergeron’s early-season injury, we got a glimpse (and Don Cheadle didn’t even arrive!) of what Marchand is like without #37. It wasn’t pretty.
David Pastrnak needn’t worry about such labels. He’s the real deal.
Pastrnak’s 92 goals the past three seasons rank him fifth in the league in that time. It’s more than McDavid, or Tavares, or Crosby. His 198 points rank 13th, ahead of names like Draisaitl, Panarin, and Gaudreau. He doesn’t seem to get nearly the pub that others in the highest-echelon of scorers get, but that’s what he is.
And what’s more is that he hasn’t always needed Bergeron to produce. Whereas Marchand’s metrics crater without his center, Pastrnak’s hold steady. While together they produce a nearly 60% CF%–and over three years that’s just stupid–Pastrnak’s away from Bergeron’s hold at 50%. This season that difference is smaller at 57% to 53%. Over his career, the scoring-chance percentage difference for Pastrnak with and without Bergeron is 60%-50%. It’s the same this year, though Bergeron has the same spilts without #88. The high-danger chances are the closest marks, both at 55%-53% split over Pasta’s career and this year. For comparison’s sake, Marchand’s numbers dip into the 40% ranger without Bergeron.
Pastrnak isn’t the deadliest shooter you’ll find, as his 14% or thereabouts shooting-percentage doesn’t have him anywhere near the top marksmen. He’s 11th in total shots, so he gets there through volume, averaging over three shots per game. And when you’re skating with Bergeron most of the time, you’ll be in the right end enough. Pastrnak should probably be shooting even more, but defers to his linemates.
That does leave this Bruins team in something of a conundrum. They clearly lack scoring beyond the top line, and that’s if David Backes is in the lineup as he can’t do much anymore. It’s clear that Marchand needs Bergeron, but would slotting Pastrnak with David Krejci on the second line give opponents more to think about? The Bruins can one-line-ending-the-world their way through the regular season, and that’ll probably see them easily gain the third playoff spot in the Atlantic, though they’re still tangled up with Montreal and Boston for that and the wild card spots.
But when the spring rolls around, can you beat Tampa or Toronto with just one line? The Leafs might not have a defense, but they can throw Matthews or Tavares and Bergeron and at least hope to break even, and then watch their greater depth run the Bruins over. That’s basically what happened against the Lightning last year. Would Pastrnak-Krejci at least be a different question to ask teams? The Bruins might have to think about it.
Considering the numbers he puts up, Pastrnak’s $6.6M hit is a borderline steal. Which is good, because the Bs are clearly going to need to bring in another winger or two in the summer if they want another run with Bergeron and Chara still around. At only 22, it’s a little frightening to think where Pastrnak could go from here. If the Bruins have to move on from this era to the next one soon, it’s clear whom they are going to do that around.
Days Of Y’Orr was once a great hockey site. But like anything that burns so brightly, it can’t last forever. Out of the rubble though we still have Marshall. You can follow him on Twitter @MarshallDOY.
Three quarters of the B’s roster caught the plague this season at some point, or so it seems. So how does Bruce Cassidy keep it afloat?
The short answer is that Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak are just really, really good. Even without Patrice Bergeron for a massive stretch, the Bruins managed to go 9-6-1 thanks to the play of the two wingers. It helps that people forget how good David Krejci is. He’s been perpetually saddled by mediocre linemates since Jarome Iginla‘s departure, but while filling in for Bergeron, he managed 14 points in 16 games.
Despite using 12 different defensemen this year, including John Moore and Steven Kampfer, the Bruins have actually allowed the fewest even strength goals in the league. It defies logic. They are getting above-average goaltending, but let’s discuss that.
Jaro Halak seems to have at least earned a splitting of starts with Duke Tuuke’m, if not the #1 job overall. Do you expect that to continue or will he return to being Jaro Halak soon?
Right now, Halak gives the Bruins the best chance to win games. Tuukka Rask, however, will always give them the best chance to win a championship. Rask has always been a feast or famine goalie; he’ll drop some major turds, but then look like a Vezina contender for months at a time. What’s worrying me this year is that he hasn’t gotten enough of a chance to get into a rhythm in favor of riding the hot hand. It’s a great short-term plan, but Halak hasn’t won a playoff series in about a decade. If Rask can’t re-gain his crease soon, it does not bode well for the team’s postseason hopes.
Is Charlie McAvoy good? Other than being a moon-faced mouth-breather, we know the offense is there but every time we look up he seems to be in the trail position defensively.
I don’t know if we have enough of a sample size to accurately judge McAvoy’s season yet. He missed half of October and all of November with a concussion. When he has been on the ice, he’s been giving up a lot of shots, but not a lot of goals. I can live with that out of a 21-year-old defenseman who makes the kind of offensive contribution he does. Like I mentioned earlier, the blue line has been a rotating cast of warm bodies this year, so once that settles down, a little stability will do wonders for Charlie.
No. Shut up. Zdeno Chara will play until he’s 80 and he’ll still be in better shape than all of us.
When fully healthy can the Bruins throw a scare or more into the Leafs or Lightning in the spring? Are they more than just the best all around line in hockey plus?
This is a team that will win a first round series and then get bounced. Apart from the top line, they are pretty average in every way. There was a lot of hope that the Bruins could build on the progress they made last year, but with so many injuries, younger players have been forced to play above their development level to skate big minutes. When everyone is healthy and in the right slot, they can get a chance to learn and improve, but that just hasn’t happened yet this year. Rather than taking a step forward they have stood still while Tampa and Toronto have continued to blossom. But man is that Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak line fun to watch though.
The NHL decided it wanted to place its signature regular season game in a famous, hallowed college football stadium to draw in viewers.
Too bad they missed.
While any Notre Dame fan, between huffs of paint, won’t hesitate to tell you how much the Golden Dome means to football, society, and the world, you have to ask yourself other than alums and the occasional Chicago meatball, who does Notre Dame matter to? Because it certainly isn’t due to results of the past three decades.
Every so often, Notre Dame is able to manipulate its hand-picked schedule into a record that appears good, and more importantly the school and fanbase and NBC stamp their feet, close their eyes, and yell as loud as they can that they must be taken seriously and given a bowl or a playoff spot. And probably out of sheer exhaustion of listening to them, they’re given one. And they get the eight kinds of shit kicked out of them every single time. They’re second class. They’re a history lesson. They’re a mid-major with a television deal and faux-religious piety.
Notre Dame doesn’t join a conference to adhere to some history or because they think they’re above the rest of college football. They do it because they know it would kill off any notoriety they get. If they were in the Big 10, they’d be Iowa. If they were in the Big 12, they’d be Colorado. If they joined their basketball brethren in the ACC they’d be Pitt. No one would care. Barely anyone cares now. Every SEC school would suck their eyeballs out through their anus and fuck the brain hole.
That’s why they’re an also-ran with a shiny gloss. Star recruits now have never known Notre Dame as being anything, and they certainly don’t want to spend anytime in Bumfuck, Indiana. Fuck, their fathers don’t remember Notre Dame being anything worth talking about! They want championship games and NFL exposure you get in the SEC or Big 10, not beating up BYU in the middle of the afternoon on NBC. Who gives a flying fuck?
Notre Dame hasn’t mattered since the 80s. INXS has more hits after that decade than the Irish do. They’re an anachronism. And then we say the names of Lizzy Seeberg or Declan Sullivan, and it’s not just that they’re overblown or incompetent, it’s a downright evil institution. Fuck your touchdown Jesus into death. And then they pile their religious bullshit on top to give them even more piousness even though if it wasn’t for their quickly fading football glory no one would ever go to that school without being forced. It would be a prison camp like the rest of that godforsaken state.
Then again, maybe it’s perfect that the Hawks want to stage the only game they’ll play that anyone will care about there. There are some similarities.
Notes: You’ll be shocked and in no way entertained by the fact that this is David Baceks’s third game of a three-game suspension for being a dumbass. This has thrown everything below their top line into even more of a mush…Rask hasn’t been as good as last year and has been outplayed by Halak for the most part, but he still is the #1 so he should get the call…not one of the Bruins d-men have played every game…Krejci’s production is the real miracle because he’s played with everyone and none of them are any good…
Notes: If you want to throw something after seeing Ward start, we don’t blame you. There’s no excuse for it other than Coach Cool Youth Pastor is terrified of telling any veteran player something they don’t want to hear…you’d think Murphy and Dahlstrom will draw the Bergeron line assignment, as would Toews…we bitch about Anisimov but that line in producing…Sikura went back with Top Cat in Colorado but lost out on some shifts to a double-shifting Kane…Caggiula couldn’t sort out his visa things in time to practice yesterday, so we’ll guess his debut comes Thursday against the Islanders…
One of the most baffling things about the Hawks during The Core’s 11.5-year run together has been the overall underperformance and at times downright putridness of the power play. With all of the scoring threats the Hawks have had since the 07–08 campaign—Kane, Toews, Hossa, Sharp, and DeBrincat, just to name a few—the Hawks have finished in the Top-10 for PP% just three times. In each of their Stanley Cup campaigns, the Hawks finished 16th, 19th, and 20th in PP% during the regular season, respectively. Their best finish came in 2015–16, when the Hawks finished second in the league. You might recall that as the year Patrick Kane scored 17 PP goals (T-2nd in league behind Ovechkin) next to Panarin and won the Hart, Ross, and Pearson (Lindsay).
Over the last year and a half, though, it’s looked dismal even by the Hawks’s underwhelming standards. For reference, last year they finished 28th, and they currently sit at 24th this year. But this year’s bad ranking was much worse just a few weeks ago, when the Hawks power play ranked dead last (31st).
Things have begun to look up recently, with the Hawks catapulting seven spots. But why?
For context, let’s first compare Time on Ice Per Game on the power play for the Hawks’s top time-getting defensemen between Quenneville and Colliton.
PP TOI/Game: Quenneville (15 Games)
PP TOI/Game: Colliton (26 Games)
Keith
2:34
1:03
Gustafsson
2:18
2:25
Seabrook
2:16
2:08
Right off the bat, you can see a huge difference in how Colliton uses Keith on the PP vs. Quenneville. We’ve been screaming in the rain about how Duncan Keith is not and never has been a good PP QB, and it looks like Colliton agrees. Since taking over, the Hawks have leaned primarily on Gustafsson and Seabrook in the QB1 and QB2 roles.
Now, let’s do the same for the Hawks forwards who tend to see the most time on the PP:
PP TOI/Game: Quenneville (15 Games)
PP TOI/Game: Colliton (26 Games)
Kane
3:34
3:43
Toews
3:15
3:05
DeBrincat
3:14
2:50
Schmaltz
2:53
2:22
Anisimov
2:20
1:20
Saad
1:46
1:34
Kahun
1:42
0:52
Strome
–
2:19
Both coaches used Kane, Toews, DeBrincat, and Schmaltz primarily. The biggest differences in terms of time were that Colliton has used Anisimov much less and replaced Schmaltz with Strome. There’s a frustrating dip in DeBrincat’s time under Colliton, but over the last six games, that number is closer to 3:20, so it may have just been Colliton trying things on. (John Hayden was on the PP for a while under Colliton. No, really.)
Essentially, Colliton has preferred Gus to Keith and Strome to Anisimov, quite rightly.
Now we have an idea about the big changes Colliton made (less Keith and Artie, more Gus and Strome). Let’s dig into the more recent success the Hawks have had on the PP. Check out the splits between the PP1 (Gus, Cat, Toews, Kane, Strome) and PP2 (Seabrook, Keith, Artie, Saad, Kahun) units over the last six games, which is when the PP started clicking:
PP TOI/Game (12/18–12/30)
Gustafsson
3:35
Kane
3:28
DeBrincat
3:20
Strome
3:15
Toews
3:11
Saad
1:04
Keith
1:01
Anisimov
0:52
Kahun
0:52
Seabrook
0:40
Colliton has really relied on his PP1 unit over the last six games. So that’s one piece of the puzzle. But that sure as shit doesn’t explain it all. Next, we’ll look at the difference between Kane–Seabrook and Kane–Gustafsson as a combo to determine whether who QBs for Kane matters.
Let’s compare Goals For and High-Danger Chances For between the Kane–Seabrook combo and Kane–Gustafsson combo. We’ll look over two time frames: 11/08–12/16 (19 games, beginning when Colliton took over) and 12/18–12/30 (6 games, beginning when the PP started clicking):
PP TOI/Game
Goals For
HDCF
Kane–Seabrook, 11/08–12/16/18
2:31
4
17
Kane–Gustafsson, 11/08–12/16/18
1:20
0
5
Kane–Seabrook 12/18/18–12/30/18
0
–
–
Kane–Gustafsson, 12/18/18–12/30/18
3:26
6
10
In isolation, it sure looks like simply having Gustafsson out with Kane regularly is far more effective than having Seabrook with Kane regularly. They’ve put up two more goals in six games than Kane–Seabrook did in 19, and the high-danger chances for are quickly catching up in a fraction of the time.
The reason we’re using six games as the touchpoint is twofold: First, the last time Kane played even a minute with Seabrook on the PP was on 12/16. He hasn’t played a single minute with Seabrook as the QB in the last six games.
Second, over the last six games, the Hawks have a 36.8 PP%.
Thirty-fucking-six-point-motherfucking-eight!
The only team ahead of them over that span is Pittsburgh (40%), who is sixth in the league and benefited from a 4/4 night against St. Louis on 12/29. What an outhouse that team and city is. The next closest teams over a similar span are Florida (35.3%), the third-best PP% team in the NHL, and Boston (33.3%), the fifth best.
But how do all of these numbers fit into the overall gameplay? One of the crazy theories we had earlier in the year was that the Hawks PP was struggling because of Kane, not despite him. Compare these two clips:
This is a clip of a Hawks power play against Vegas on 12/06. Notice how long Kane spends with the puck (“Carmelo-ing” as Fels calls it) in both instances and how it allows Vegas’s PK to set up, leaving only low-danger perimeter shots for Seabrook and DeBrincat.
This is a clip of the Hawks power play against the Stars on 12/20. Rather than playing with his dick on the boards, notice how much more movement Kane creates with Gus at QB. The Stars now have to focus on both Kane coming off the half-boards and Toews in the high slot. The biggest difference here is that Gustafsson can move farther than five feet in any direction, unlike Seabrook in the previous clip. With DeBrincat and Gustafsson cycling, Kane doesn’t have to make everything happen by himself. It also lets him move into higher-danger spots, such as when he skated to set up the slapper in the spot that DeBrincat was once in (DeBrincat cycled to the point while Gus took Kane’s usual spot).
Another wrinkle between the two set ups is how Colliton uses Toews. In the first clip, Toews rarely stayed put in the high slot, instead roving around the lower portions of the ice. This “movement” was less strategic and more moving for the sake of moving. Note how no one on Vegas pays much heed to Toews.
In the second clip, Toews tends to stay in the high-to-mid slot. After one retrieval behind the net at the very beginning of the clip, Toews never strays past the dots or lower than the blue paint. In this set up, Toews is a threat to either (a) tip a shot, (b) sweep in a rebound, or (c) set up in the slot for a wrister or a one-timer. By cutting unnecessary movement out, Toews makes himself a threat and gives Kane, DeBrincat, and Gus more real estate to work with.
While both of these set ups came under Colliton, you could easily mistake the first clip for a Quenneville set up. It may have just been a matter of time and experimentation, but once Colliton put Kane and Gus together on the PP1, things started to change.
It took a little over a month, but Colliton has done three things to improve the power play:
1. Massively reduced Keith’s role.
2. Put Gus with Kane at nearly all times.
3. Set Toews in the high slot and reduced unnecessary movement.
When you consider how much movement the Hawks PP has created over the last six games, the reason why the power play looks and is more formidable is likely a function of Gus’s skating ability and risk-taking. With Seabrook, the onus is on Kane to make plays because all Seabrook can do anymore is pound slappers from the point. That’s fine and all, but it’s a huge waste of Kane’s toolset. It forces everyone to play more conservatively, Kane included, because the point man in Seabrook needs cover and can’t create movement by himself. His passing can’t save him, basically.
Gus is more willing and able to make high-wire passes and plays because of his relative speed, decent vision, and the ways he takes advantage of Kane’s preternatural offensive skill, as we saw on Kane’s first goal against the Wild on 12/27. His aggressiveness and ability to cycle with Kane and DeBrincat, coupled with the threat of Toews in the high slot, open up more lanes for both good passing and shooting, rather than the dull perimeter passing they’d get with Keith and Seabrook.
While six games do not a power play make, the Hawks are trending in the right direction, and it looks like all it took was someone for Kane to perform with. The rub here is that you’re relying an awful lot on Gus not to do outlandishly stupid things, which is a coin-flip at best. Nonetheless, the results are clear:
1. The Kane–Gus combo has produced six of the Hawks last seven PP goals over six games. It took the PP 35 games to get to 12 goals prior to this combo playing regularly.
2. Since making Gus the QB on the PP1, the Hawks have the second-best PP% in the NHL, behind only Pittsburgh.
3. Before Gus became the QB1, the Hawks PP% sat at 11.4. With Gus as the QB1, it’s 36.8%. That’s a 223% increase in conversion rates. That’s right: 223%.
The sample sizes are small, but promising. If nothing else, it’s a relief to watch the Hawks PP do something, anything, other than suck out loud, even if it’s only for a little while. But the way the stats flesh out and the PP looks on the ice, this might be what the PP is now.
Last season brought a lot of things about the Blackhawks into harsh clarity, and perhaps none more so than the importance of Corey Crawford to this team. The Scott Darling Apologists all disappeared as it became painfully obvious that neither Anton Forsberg nor the Jeff Glass Experience was up to the task of covering for the Hawks’ shitty defense. And not having a world-class goalie behind them revealed just how bad the blue line really was, as we’re all too well-aware now.
So the lead-up to this season was heavily focused on if and/or when Crawford would return, and just what kind of player he’d be if he played at all. The fact that he was at Vezina level when he went down with a concussion in December 2017 only raised the tension—if he came back, could he play at THAT level again and potentially salvage this It’s-Tinkering-Not-A-Rebuild Hawks team that the front office kept trying to sell everyone? Could Corey Crawford redeem the Hawks in the present moment and leave last year as an anomaly?
Now that we’ve reached the midway point of the season, we know the answers to those questions, and they’re both a resounding no. With his latest concussion, thanks to Evander Kane being a total fuckstick, the Hawks have to move on to a future without Crawford, and it starts now, whether anyone likes it or not.
Before we go any further, let me just say that yes, Crawford could conceivably come back this year. Maybe just maybe he recovers quickly. Concussions are strange and recovery times vary wildly. There have even been murmurings on Twitter from the team saying he’s around, but Coach Cool Youth Pastor doesn’t know about a timeline. At this point though, such chatter seems to me like the Hawks’ feeble attempt at bullshitting people, like a lazier version of the nonsense they peddled late in the offseason when they talked openly about Crow returning, despite this being a surprise to the player himself.
Anyway, even if the Hawks dug up some Dr. Nick Riviera to medically clear Crawford, for the good of his health and the Hawks’ future, Crawford shouldn’t play again. Let’s start with why this is best for Crawford.
Risk v Reward
It’s become increasingly clear that concussions and repeated brain trauma have devastating effects including higher rates of depression. Concussions are reaching the level of carcinogens, where no amount of exposure is safe, but recent research is also showing that it’s not just concussions but general head trauma and hits to the head that multiply the risk of CTE (chronic traumatic encephalopathy), a fatally degenerative disease.
Crawford has now sustained two concussions in a year, and the first one was obviously pretty fucking bad to keep him off the ice for 10 months. Now, I’m clearly no doctor—not even Dr. Nick—so I can’t say what is going on with his brain cells or what will happen or what his prognosis is. I’m not even trying to. I’m just laying out established studies that all say getting hit in the head a lot or getting concussed is bad.
With the medical facts being what they are, athletes (in football, hockey, whatever) need to weigh the risks versus the rewards when it comes to playing. That can pertain to any injury, but it’s particularly relevant with the risk of traumatic brain injuries, which are by nature different than blowing out a knee or breaking a bone since recovery is uncertain and CTE can’t even be diagnosed until after death. It’s a different level than fucking up a knee and never quite walking normally again—you can still walk in that situation; your brain doesn’t heal and move on in that way.
Crawford turned 34 today—not exactly an old man by non-sports standards, so one would hope he’d have a number of years left. The quality of those years (not to mention the quantity) can be jeopardized by the potential for lasting damage due to multiple concussions and brain injuries. Is it really worth it to put your brain and potentially the rest of your life in danger to help out a dumpster fire of a team, particularly one that you’ll probably only play another year with? I hope that Crawford himself responds with an emphatic “no” to that question.
Sure, he could get traded somewhere, maybe some good team seeing as nearly all of them are better than the Hawks but again, in your mid-thirties, how many playing days are left? And is the slim chance of success worth the risk, after you’ve already accomplished so much? I’m not a professional athlete and I certainly can’t comment on the delirium of winning, but this seems like it’s an open-and-shut case to say no, and walk away.
A New Hope
OK, so why would it benefit the Blackhawks to move on from the guy who is one of the most valuable goalies they’ve ever had, if not THE most? It’s because the reality of the situation laid out above will make itself felt eventually, and the Hawks have to be prepared. Even if Crawford magically recovered and came back in a few weeks, he still celebrated that birthday today and assuming he could go for 12 consecutive months without another injury, he’ll be 35 in a year’s time.
If things had been different I would say without hesitation that he would have Lundqvist-like longevity (I enjoy alliteration, fuck off), or Tim Thomas-like success getting a late-career Cup (although obviously Thomas was a nobody early in his career and it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison but you get what I mean).
But things didn’t turn out differently. They turned out like this. When he first came back this year, there were flashes of the Vezina-quality goalie who got hurt late in 2017. It was probably adrenaline to a degree, and he cooled off to human levels while the still-putrid defense did him no favors. Crawford is currently sitting with a .902 SV% and 3.28 GAA in his 26 games this season.
Assuming he came back from this concussion, one would have to expect a similar performance, maybe slightly better, quite possibly worse. Aging and injuries piling up doesn’t bode well for returning to league-leading form. The defense isn’t going to turn things around in a meaningful way in the immediate future, and only by a small miracle will things be better next year. And then his contract is up after that and you’ve got a guy in his mid-thirties who is a shadow of his former self, and you’re a dick if you let him go but you can’t overpay another fading star just for nostalgia’s sake.
So it’s time for the Hawks to find their next long-term goalie, and it’s entirely possible that Collin Superfluous-L Delia could be an NHL-caliber player. It’s way too early to say that for sure, but so far, with the smallest of sample sizes (3 games), he’s got a .957 SV% and 1.66 GAA. Those numbers will undoubtedly move in the wrong direction eventually, but he’s earned the right for the full audition.
So whether or not Crawford comes back, the team needs to play Delia and figure out sooner rather than later what he’s going to be, even if what he’s going to be is just a nobody. Because if Delia really is just a clod, then all the contract machinations swirling around this team get another element added, as the Hawks would need to hit the market for a legitimate starter, not fucking Cam Ward or another of his ilk. The entire team is affected by what happens in the crease, so dithering over this issue will only delay any improvement or rebuild or whatever the hell you want to call it.
End of the Road
No matter what happens, the organ-I-zation needs to do right by Crawford. They owe him so much that if he requested that Stan Bowman go streaking through Millennium Park in zero-degree weather as a joke, they’d better make it happen. But both the player and the team need to admit to themselves and the fans that their futures diverge from here, and that’s better for everyone. It’s been a helluva run.
vs. 
