Everything Else

The Children Better Be The Future Cuz We Ain’t Got No Present – Cole Caufield

By Sam Fels 1671 0

The FFUD #3 pick preview keeps rolling on, and today we’ll look at one who would be a true stretch but also might put up the best numbers of anyone. 

Physical Stats

Height: 5′ 7″  Weight: 157   Shot: Right

On-Ice Stats (’18-’19)

League: USDP  Team: USNTDP  Position: LW

64 games – 72G – 28A – 100P

Why The Hawks Should Take Him

Goals. The name of the game is still scoring goals, and if you’re going to have a one-dimensional player, as long as that dimension is scoring the fuck out of the thing, then that’s ok. And Caufield is the best pure scorer in the draft. That’s clear, no one is disputing that. 72 goals in 64 games, even at that level, is enough for anyone to take notice. He’s also dominated at international level for his age group, with 14 goals in seven games at the U-18s. The release is already making people think of Ovechkin and MacKinnon, He’s not the skater that MacKinnon is but he’s hardly a plug on his feet and is more than fast and smart enough to get to the open spaces to get off that shot. The hands are there too, so the thought is that his playmaking could improve, whereas this year he had Jack Hughes to do all that and all he had to do was finish. Some would say getting to play with Hughes inflates the numbers, as if you could complain about 72 goals, but as we learned with DeBrincat you still gotta finish those chances and Caufield does it at what could be called a generational level.

Why The Hawks Shouldn’t Take Him

One, he’s a stretch. Even as he’s climbed up the boards as people ignore his size, he tops out as the fifth-highest rated prospect and lower on other boards. You’d be passing on what look to be better players to take him, unless you trade down and that would mean getting something tangible for the #3 pick. And the Hawks aren’t going to trade the #3 pick. If he’s your guy he’s your guy, though.

This is where I’m supposed to say size. No, the Hawks have shown they don’t really care about that if the talent is there, and hopefully they stick with that, but the Hawks are starting to specialize in small, nippy forwards and eventually you do have to have someone at least average-sized somewhere. Even if Caufield were in the NHL in ’20-’21 (which seems likely), there’s just about only one spot he can play and that’s across from Kane, and boy would that line be fun, in the good way offensively and the bad way defensively.

Third, the Hawks need a top-pairing d-man and they probably need someone to carry on from Jonathan Toews in two to three years, and Caufield isn’t either of those. The Hawks do have a chance to get either of those at #3, and while Caufield has a special skill you can’t really teach, wingers just don’t move the needle or change directions of teams as much or as often.

Verdict

To call Caufield “a risk” is wide of the mark. The dude is going to score, and he’s going to score a ton. As soon as he arrives with whatever teams gets him, he’s going to fill the net and there will be a ton of articles about the teams that passed on him, simply because of that one stat. But it is THE stat. That said, at #3 and what the Hawks have a chance to get, it seems too much of a stretch. You can never have too many guys who can score 40, and Caufield probably gets to that before too long. But he just isn’t as dynamic as Byram or Turcotte.

Now if you get a bonkers package for the #3 pick and somehow end up at #5-8 where Caufield might go…then we’re talking…but that’s not going to happen.

Everything Else

Series Wrap – Cubs And White Sox Split: Baseball Gonna Baseball On Ya

By Sam Fels 1328 0

Game 1 Box Score: Sox 3, Cubs 1

Game 2 Box Score: Cubs 7, Sox 3

It’s somehow perfect, at least on the blue side, that this mini-series would work out in opposite fashion than you would have guessed. The Cubs couldn’t figure out Ivan Nova, but then they shelled the American League’s hottest pitcher. Sure. Why wouldn’t it be that? Nothing about this Crosstown affair has ever made sense. And of course it would be Willson Contreras delivering the deathblow tonight, because I poopooed him earlier in the day. You can’t fucking script this stuff.

So the Cubs and Sox split. Everyone who works at NBCSN will try and attach greater meaning to it. And there is none. It was just two games. In the words of Homer, “It was just a bunch of stuff that happened.”

The Two Obs

-Fine, we’ll get the main story, or the one that everyone will push, out of the way first. Of course Eloy Jimenez hit the winning homer off of Pedro Strop in the 9th of the first game. It’s the perfect arc. The Cubs have pen problems, Strop is meant to be a partial salve, Eloy is the “one who got away” according to everyone who needs there to be a narrative. We could have told you this on Monday afternoon.

Clear up some facts, partially thanks to Hess. Quintana has been better than Lester since he arrived, and if you sold the trade as Eloy and Cease for Lester, Cubs fans probably go along with that. Second, Schwarber and Eloy have been equals mostly for this year, so it’s not clear where the hell Eloy would have played had he still been here. Eloy will go on to be a great player, likely. The Cubs did not make a mistake. Both of these thing can be true.

(If you want the mistake, check out Gleyber for Aroldis. And that one ended with a parade, so is it really?)

-It’s strange that Ivan Nova has been so much better on the road, because thanks to the weather Comiskey has not played like the launch pad it normally does. But that’s just how it’s been.

-Lester got six whiffs on the eight swings on his curve tonight, which I suppose is encouraging. Him having to hump and sweat through 17 outs kind of isn’t.

-Aaron Bummer is kind of the perfect example of how weird relievers can be. He came up in ’17, and though he had a bad ERA no one could really touch him, as a .178 BA against would prove. Perhaps an inept defense didn’t help. Last year, he was bad, and now he’s dominant. Would you take the bet that he nets more than Colome at the deadline? He does throw left-handed, remember.

-Galactus is fighting it a bit, at the moment.

-From the minute that Kelli Crull said she’d be touring the park during Game 1, you knew exactly what would happen, right? It would be a series of couples and groups split between fans of each team, and they would just scream into the microphone. And it would be something along the lines of the Cub fan screaming how great Wrigley is and the Sox fan about how Cubs fans are only out for the party and other shit we debunked like 15 years ago. We’ve been watching this for 22 years. Give her something better to do for all of our sakes, especially hers.

-Hmm, David Bote homered on the same day I suggested he just play every day. Is it working in reverse now?

Onwards…

Everything Else

Escrow Is Just Code For “Imma Get Mine”

By Sam Fels 2239 0

Before we get any farther, this blog has always been pro-union, wherever that may be. NHL owners, all team owners really, and probably almost all insanely rich people are evil and need to be fought against and reigned in. I am wearing three Che Guevara shirts right now.

That said, the NHL is being stupid on all sides. I can’t sum it up any better than Barry Petchesky does here, but in a nutshell we’re in the height of NHL transaction series and no one has any idea what their budgets are. That’s really solid work there, and only possible in hockey. It wouldn’t be so hard to figure out a hard deadline when both sides need to agree on what the cap should be, except neither has gotten around to it for what seems to be simply because neither thought of it. That’s hockey, baby.

Anyway, the main sticking point here is that the players don’t want to use their installed escalator to the cap, which can go up to 5% of what the cap is dictated to be. So if the cap were set at $82.6M, the players could raise it as high as 86.7M. But they won’t, because of escrow.

At this point I’m guessing most of you know what escrow is, but for those who don’t, because the salary cap is pegged at projections of a 50/50 split of revenue, portions of a player’s check are held back in case actual revenue doesn’t meet the projections of a 50-50 split. Now, I imagine having 10% of your salary just held in jail every month sucks, because you have a contract that says you should get paid the full amount. Especially when we’re talking about guys making $8-10 million, that’s a lot of money you’re not seeing. Anyway, at the end of the year when everyone knows what revenues are, that money gets returned to the player or sent to the owners to even everything out.

And players hate it. You can see why, but the problem is that there really isn’t any other way. If you have a system that bases salaries and salary caps on projections, then there’s always going to be some sort of fail-safe to make sure the real numbers match up with the projected ones. You can’t know for sure what revenues will be down to the dollar. And sure, the owners don’t have similar skin in the game because they don’t have salaries, they just take the revenue that’s not given out as salaries. There’s nothing from them that can be put in something similar to escrow.

You could peg the cap to the previous year’s revenues, but then players wouldn’t be making half of what the owners are currently making and the players would hate that. You could try and just negotiate a fixed number years ahead, but neither the players or owners are going to risk getting less than half the pie now. There’s little wiggle room, so not utilizing the escalator is the surest way to keep escrow down or even not have it at all.

And to the players, or at least the bigger ones up the chain, that’s what matters. But the problem is that not raising the cap squeezes out a lot of other players. How many veterans, who probably should be earning $3M a year or so, end up just signing PTOs in September because teams simply don’t have the space to fit them in yet? How many veterans are going to give up total salary, not just escrow, to fit into a team’s cap space simply because they have to. Maybe it’s their last contract.

So Jonathan Toews can bitch about escrow all he likes, but someone should ask him if that money that he only “might” not get is more important than say, players like Marcus Kruger or Valtieri Filppula getting jobs at all or having to take serious pay cuts. You are supposed to be a union after all, aren’t you? A higher cap means more for more players. You would think it’s the greater good.

Again, the players agreed to this system. If they hate it so much they should have actually held out for a luxury tax system, or at worst some kind of veteran or mid-level exception like the NBA so that their non-use of the escalator isn’t costing other players jobs. But at the end, much like owners, players aren’t really that concerned with getting everyone something as long as they get their something.

Baseball

Will The Cubs Need Another Bat?

By Sam Fels 1484 0

Granted, this is a poor post to explore a day after you’ve been smothered by Ivan Nova, statistically the worst starter in all of baseball. One is capable of the irrational at the moment. And it’s not fair to get really emotional about it when you’ve just run the Dodgers gauntlet for four games, because right now no one is scoring against them. But the thing is if you want to go anywhere, you’re going to have to bust through that Crossing The Desert, or out-slug them, or out-slug the Brewers to even win the division (Lord knows the Brewers aren’t going to out-pitch anyone), or the suddenly nuclear Braves…anyway, you get it.

The worry area for the Cubs all season has been the pen, and the signing of Craig Kimbrel doesn’t magically make all of that go away. And you still imagine that when the deadline approaches, that still will be Priority #1, and possibly #2 and even #3. Fair enough, the Cubs still only have two to three reliable guys right now, and that might even include Kimbrel. There are a lot of wildcards out there.

Still, what’s been apparent is the Cubs have obvious holes in the lineup. They’re at second, center, and right. The last is being a tad harsh, as even with Jason Heyward’s abhorrent May, he’s still having an above-average offensive year (barely). But we can aim for a little higher than barely above average, at least I hope we can. Mom always told me aim high. The Cubs can carry average or a tick below at one spot, maybe even two.

The problem is that when the main five–Bryant, Rizzo, Contreras, Baez, and now Schwarber–aren’t all firing at the same time then the offense becomes something of a wasteland after the fifth hitter. Baez is in a slump, Contreras has gotten ground-ball happy again, and this is a big reason the Cubs haven’t put together a bunch of runs of late.

Still, I don’t want to base things on a bad week or two. It’s a long goddamn season. But over the last month, the Cubs are 10th in runs in the NL, 12th in average, 11th in wOBA. A month gets harder to ignore.

And what’s clear is that the answers mostly aren’t on the team. There’s no way the Cubs could have foreseen that Ben Zobrist would leave the team and his return be totally up in the air. It’s easy to forget how good Zobrist was last year in a more limited role in service of his age, but his 123 wRC+ or .355 wOBA would be miles above anything they’re getting for the most part from anyone not in that fivesome mentioned.

With Zoby 18 being somewhere in the quantum zone, the Cubs aren’t left with many answers. Carlos Gonzalez is dead. He’s not going to be reanimated. Everyone but Joe Maddon seems to know this. What’s hilarious is that Mark Zagunis was never given near the opportunities that CarGo has been, and his numbers are significantly better. And no, that’s not a plea to recall ZagNuts and play him. It’s just an illustration of how toast CarGo is.

Addison Russell is probably not going to hit, because he never really has. Some in the organization are blinded by the 98 RBI he put up once, but that’s more a function of the great offense ahead of him in ’16 than him being a great hitter. He’s never had an above-average offensive season, and has been actively bad the last three seasons. Daniel Descalso has been a disaster, and would likely be DFA’d if Zobrist were to return.

Whatever momentum Albert Almora might have had in May has been stunted by the arrival and usage of Gonzalez. I’m not sure how exactly, but Almora had a productive May. He had terrible luck (.253 BABIP), still hit too many grounders (50%, but that was down from April), and yet hit for enough power to overcome all of that. It’s the Heyward argument; given his defense you take average or just above offense and you have yourself a very useful player. June has seen Almora hit the ball in the same fashion as May, at least contact-type wise, it’s just that none of it has gone out of the park as a quarter of his fly balls did in May. I don’t know what the truth is here, but I know there’s more potential here than trying to wheeze one more breath of oxygen into CarGo.

The only in-house answer right now is to play David Bote every day. I know that Maddon would tell me that would expose Bote, or make the Cubs too right-handed, but quite frankly that’s horseshit. In fact, Bote has been terrible against left-handed pitching this year and great against right-handed, the complete opposite of last year. Which makes you at least hope he could blend the two one day.

Bote’s run into some bad luck in June as well, as he’s had a 32% line-drive rate in the month which is insanely high. Overall, his hard-contact rate is down but I can’t see how lacing line-drives all over the place is a bad thing. He’s hardly a star, but given what else you have, it’s just about the only choice. Whether that’s playing second with Almora in center and Heyward in right, or at third with Bryant in right and Heyward in center, I really don’t care. You have to at least try. We know Maddon loves his roster flexibility, but that’s not this roster. Quite frankly. Russell, CarGo, and Descalso have played themselves off the rotation. That’s just how it is.

The problem with getting a bat via trade is they’re going to be costly, whereas you can find any reliever anywhere (and I’m kind of in the would rather have Bummer than Colome camp right now if the Cubs go shopping crosstown again). In my dreams you plug Howie Kendrick into second base and get on with your life. But even if the Nats decide to pack up the cats, Kendrick is going to cost and I don’t think the Cubs have the boat to spend, prospect-wise. It’s like Alzolay and Hoerner and that’s pretty much it. We’ll throw Amaya on there, but he’s a long way off. And Amaya is probably the only one you’re comfortable, barely, including in any deal just because he plays catcher and you seem set there for a while.

Any other bat on the market is probably the same story. It’s hard to know who that would even be. Whit Merrifield isn’t going anywhere and if he did it wouldn’t be cheap. Eric Sogard? That’s a risk but would probably be cheap? He’s kind of Zobrist-lite at this point and is only a year removed from being a black hole for the Brewers. Maybe you wait out how the Reds toggle the Derek Dietrich/Scooter Gennett conundrum, but neither are guaranteed to be moved and neither would be cheap if they were.

It’s a problem, which is why Bote should probably be given the month to see what he does with an every day role. Hell, you extended the guy anyway, right?

Everything Else

The Children Better Be the Future, Cuz We Ain’t Got No Present – Dylan Cozens

By Rose Rankin 1488 0

The FFUD #3 Pick Preview rolls on with a guy who has the same name as an injured Phillies prospect, in a coincidence both weird and possibly accurate.

Physical Stats

Height: 6′ 3″; Weight: 183; Shot: Right

On-Ice Stats (2018-19)

League: WHL; Team: Lethbridge Hurricanes; Position: Center

34 G; 50 A; 84 P

Why the Hawks Should Take Him

Cozens can skate. That’s his number one quality, and on this Hawks team that ability shouldn’t be underestimated. We love Dylan Strome around these parts, but skating is definitely not his strong suit. And Toews won’t be getting any faster either. Cozens is most naturally a center, and if  you squint, you could see him as a 3C, ostensibly on an energy line with Kubalik or Sikura or any of the other bottom-six rabble. He can get control of the puck and move it through the neutral zone, and at 6’3″ he’s big enough to win puck battles down low, and then he can use his speed to get up the ice and make a zone entry. Which shouldn’t be that hard but you know what we’re dealing with here.

By all accounts, Cozens is a solid two-way player with a decent shot, and even though he’s tall he’s not a slobbering oaf (yet at least). His offensive capabilities have been noted since he was 16, when he scored eight points in 12 games, the second-most for a WHL player at that age behind Brayden Point. He finished this season tied for 10th in points, and his total of 84 was a 30-point jump from his previous season. So he’s got offensive potential.

Why the Hawks Shouldn’t Pick Him

Speed is important, don’t get me wrong, but unfortunately Cozens isn’t all that skilled. Yes his numbers are good, but we’re talking about his 16-year-old season? That’s discomforting in its Pierre McGuire-ness. I at least would want his current season to be enough that we don’t have to talk about him basically as a god damn Bantam. And at this point, he’s pretty much a bottom-six guy. Granted, Cozens would be a hell of a lot cheaper than Artem Anisimov, the costliest 4C there ever was, but is it really worth using the third pick on a third-liner? He may be a top-six player one day but that will depend on a lot of improvement.

I guess you could argue that there’s nothing inherently wrong with the Hawks taking another forward, since the depth they have could either 1) end up being filled with shit, or 2) lead to a roulette wheel of forwards and we don’t know who will work well together yet so why not have a whole bunch of them. But if he can’t make it as a center on the depth chart, it’s tough to imagine Cozens on a line with Toews or Strome, since that would leave Top Cat and Garbage Dick to move to their off side (not happening) or Cozens himself would have to move (not proven that could work).

And, with all of that being the case it would be incredibly frustrating to see the third pick come to that, rather than Byram, when we all know damn well it’s the blue line we have to worry about. Seriously, talking about a potential NHL center when there’s a quality defenseman available is annoying in itself, so thanks for that, Hawks.

Verdict

Dylan Cozens wouldn’t hurt the lineup, but he may not help it much either. He could be packaged as part of a deal, since there is no shortage of young forwards for the Hawks to be dealing, but it’s hard to see that as a worthwhile use of a #3 pick. Unless that deal can magically bring Dougie Hamilton, then fine. Even in a worst-case scenario he won’t really do any harm and could potentially be a decent center. So that’s…something? And maybe we’d have another guy to use the Dave Chappelle Dylan gif for.

Everything Else

Why Not Put George McPhee Over Jim Hendry’s Barrel?

By Sam Fels 1682 0

While I sit here and still try and wrap my head around the Olli Maatta trade and failing terrible and falling deeper into my own ennui, a Justin Bruan trade didn’t help today. He’s at least twice as good as Maatta, didn’t cost any players, and is only signed for one season so if it didn’t work you can all part ways after the year, or if you have young players ready to ascend. He actually does what the Hawks must think Maatta does but doesn’t, and he wouldn’t have cost any players.

Be that as it may, and this isn’t only a Hawks problem, but if you want to solve any problem your team might have, why aren’t teams coming, and I mean sprinting, to pick the bones off the Golden Knights’ cap problems. We’ve gone over this before, but let’s review: George McPhee needed only two seasons to completely bork a completely blank cap situation.

The Knights are capped out. Not like, just sort of capped out. They literally have no space under a $83M salary cap, and it very well might turn into an $82M one. They have not re-signed William Karlsson. They have not re-signed, Nikita Gusev. They have not re-signed Tomas Nosek. They don’t have a backup goalie. And that’s before July 1st.

Sure, they could go over the cap by 10% until Opening night, which will help a little bit. Except Karlsson is going to gobble most of that up. And they could use David Clarkson’s LTIR. But as we learned with Hossa, using that in the offseason really bones you during the season where basically no one can get hurt. And you can’t make any trades.

No matter what here, the Knights have to move some people out. And they can’t take any players back. There can’t be a team more interested in taking only picks and prospects back in a trade, because they simply can’t cram in anyone else onto the roster. You should be dangling everything in front of them.

So why not call and see what Colin Miller would cost? Hell, aim higher and see if Shea Theodore can be pried loose. Someone’s gotta go. Find out who it is.

Or hell, let’s get nuts. Offer sheet Wild Bill. I don’t even know if he fits on the Hawks, but you can find a place for him on the top six. Go with your “3+1″model with Kampf as the 1. Offer him $6M a year because right now the Knights literally can’t match it. They have no space. Maybe Eakin or Haula are gettable to replace what you just lost in Kahun for a season. Who fucking cares? Get him over that barrel.

This isn’t even a Hawks complaint, because all the sharks should be circling around the Knights right now. If they’re such the darlings of the NHL and are so ahead of the curve, it stands to reason everyone wants their players. And they can’t keep all their players. Is there some rule I missed that the Knights can just spend whatever they want so everyone gets their comped rooms in the spring? It’s still hilarious that with a blank slate the Knights are in this spot. You would think it would have been near impossible. But McPhee made it look so easy.

Whatever, the Hawks made their move. I guess I’d better just be resigned to it. Ennui, here I come.

Baseball

Series Preview – White Sox vs. Cubs: A Lot Of Unimportant Noise

By Sam Fels 1121 0

vs.

RECORDS: White Sox 34-36   Cubs 39-32

GAMETIMES: Tuesday and Wednesday at 7:05

TV: WGN (Sox) and NBCSN Chicago (Cubs) Tuesday, NBCSN Chicago (Sox) and ABC 7 Wednesday (Cubs)

WE’RE NOT LISTING OTHER BLOGS BECAUSE WE’RE ALL YOU NEED, BITCHES

PITCHING MATCHUPS

Ivan Nova vs. Cole Hamels

Lucas Giolito vs. Jon Lester

PROBABLE WHITE SOX LINEUP

Leury Garcia – CF

Tim Anderson – SS

Jose Abreu – 1B

Eloy Jimenez – LF

Yoan Moncada – 3B

Zack Collins – C

Yolmer Sanchez – 2B

Ryan Cordell – RF

PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

Kyle Schwarber – LF

Kris Bryant – 3B

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Javier Baez – SS

Jason Heyward – RF

Willson Contreras – C

David Bote – 2B

Albert Almora Jr. – CF

 

I won’t lie. These games stopped being fun for me somewhere around 2008. Maybe earlier. At first I thought trying to be above it was a way to annoy my Sox-leaning friends. But then I was just above it. They were, and still are, a nuisance. They’re only that these days because of how much “meaning” the local media wants to attach to them to justify all the frothing about it when they’re just two more games on the schedule. I used to think they meant more to Sox fans, but these days it feels like even they’re over it. The Cubs have been contenders for things that matter for years now, putting these games in proper perspective. And Sox fans finally got their wish of a rebuild and have a ton of young players to enjoy watching grow up and that’s where their focus is, along with what the future might bring. Sure, two wins against the other side is always nice, but nothing that happens here is going to change what these teams are about. The days of Jerry Manuel trying to engineer his lineup and rotation in spring training for a Cubs series are long gone, and we’re all better off, that’s for sure.

Both teams come in off frustrating weekends. The Cubs only averted complete disaster thanks to a Anthony Rizzo 9th-inning homer off of Kenley Jansen. Meanwhile, the Sox took two straight from the Yankees to pull themselves up and look over the edge of the landing of .500, before their grip gave way and they dropped the next two to roll back down the hill a bit. .500 doesn’t really mean anything to the Sox in the grand scheme of things, but it would be a nice benchmark for team and fans alike to grab hold of as proof things are moving forward.

For this one, the Lester-Giolito matchup on Wednesday is going to grab the marquee. And that’s mostly due to Giolito, who’s been one of the best five starters in baseball this season. The Cubs just had to run the Dodgers gauntlet, so the idea of now having to put up with Giolito right after that probably sours the taste of food this week. Lester has been fighting it the past month, basically getting shelled in four of his last six starts and gutting through a four-run first inning against the Cardinals two starts back to keep that from becoming another bloodletting. Lester tried abandoning his change in his last start against the Dodgers, but that didn’t work. So it feels like he’s a touch short on answers.

On the other side, it looks like Yoan Moncada will return for at least Wednesday if not both. New call-up Zack Collins should go right into the fire, as they’re not going to break up the Giolito-McCann Axis of Darkness anytime soon. Or McCann could get both but hey, the kid is here so let him out of the house. McCann has pretty insane patience, to the point where he watches a lot of strikes. Also pretty big pop for a catcher. Sox fans should be excited.

Ivan Nova has held something of a voodoo sign over the Cubs before, with a career 3.97 ERA and a 5.5 K/BB ratio against them. I personally watched him out-duel Jake Arrieta in Pittsburgh in 2017, but thankfully a distillery tour before that game left me pretty “meh” about the whole thing. The Sox will have to deal with the ridiculously hot Cole Hamels, who hasn’t given up a run since May 27th.

There will still be sections of each fanbase who attach too much to these two games and the two that will follow right before the break. They’re shrinking in size, but they’re still there. And the local media will do whatever it can to stoke their fires. Inside the park you know you’ll have a fair amount of drunken arguments. But not as many as before apparently, because it wasn’t too long ago everyone would have balked at having these games at night. Not so much anymore. Let’s get it over with.

Baseball

Cubs-Sox Meditation

By Sam Fels 1450 0

Instead of our usual spotlight, for the Crosstown series the three of us who have been covering baseball so far this year–yours truly, Hess, and AJ–got together to talk about the status of each team heading into this two-day gimmick on the Northside. 

Fels: We used to joke around here that these games meant little to Cubs fans and everything to Sox fans, because lord knows in the past I’ve come across more than enough Sox fans who had a “DEY COULD WIN TWO GAMES ALL YEAR BUT IF DERE AGAINST DA PACKERS I’M HAPPY” attitude about these. But it seems in the past couple Sox fans also regard these crosstown games as a ginned-up gimmick. That about right?

AJ: I would agree.  The fact that CSN (now NBCSN) has tried to turn this thing into an NCAA Football kind of rivalry with some Monopoly token kind of trophy has had the opposite effect and actually highlighted how goofy the concept is.  That, and the fact that in our heart of hearts most Sox fans that follow the team closely know the best we could hope for these past few years was a series split.  I’m wondering if now that the team is trending upward we might see a resurgence of that type of behavior.  I know personally that as much as I’d like the Sox to smoke the Cubs it’s far more important to not get clobbered by Minnesota so if they lose 3 of 4 I’m not gonna be too pissed about it.  

Hess: I am right there with you both, but I still think it is fun and kind of important that they play each other. Is it a true rivalry? No. The most heated moment in the history was the Barret-Pierzynski fight, and even any Sox who thinks they wouldn’t punch AJ when aggravated and they had the chance is a liar. But there is something fun about having them play one another, especially with the teams in the current states, as the Cubs represent everything the Sox are hoping for out of the rebuild. And the NBCSN commercials for it are nauseating.

Flipping to you, Sam – The Sox are set to see Jon Lester on Wednesday, who seems to be having more hills and valleys with his play this year than the Rocky Mountains the Cubs left behind last week. What’s been his deal?
Fels: Well, he’s old. Lester’s stuff has definitely declined a bit, which makes his margin for error somewhere in Hendricks range. Lester hasn’t been able to blow anyone away in a while, which is fine, because he could just beat the corners into submission. But now as his stuff plays even lower, he really has to hit the corners and nothing else and when he misses it’s ya-ha time. He’s been trying a new approach and trying to get inside more than just merely staying not the outside corner, but again, he can’t miss. Some days he doesn’t. Some days he does and he gets shelled. There seems to be no in between. He also hasn’t quite figured out how to make his change as effective as it should be.

Looks like this week could be the debut of another Sox toy, in Zack Collins. Is this just a Wellington injury fill-in? Is he here for good? How worried are you about the swing and miss in his game?
AJ: At this point with the hilariously bad production out of the DH spot (.191/.294/.357!?!) I’m excited to see what he can bring to the table.  I’ve set my expectations fairly low, so if he can make me forget Yonder Alonso is a thing that is here then I’ll be thrilled.  The swing and miss portion of his game seems to fit right in with most of the hitters in MLB now anyways, what with the Three True Outcomes and all, so that part doesn’t concern me as much.  What does concern me is his ability to actually stick at catcher.  If he’s unable to play there at least half time then we are looking at a career DH, as the dearth of 1B prospects the Sox have are probably gonna boot him from there.  My guess is that he’s here until Castillo is healthy, as the Sox want to try and feature The Beef as much as possible to trade him in 2 weeks.
Hess: The funny thing about the swing-and-miss in Collins’ game is that in all reality, he doesn’t swing much. He’s one of the most patient hitters I have ever seen, and only really swings if he either really has to or really gets a pitch he likes. That has resulted in hilarious strikeout and walk rates in the minors so far, as he’s basically walked or struck out in half of his MiLB PA’s. But a 15%+ walk rate is nothing to scoff at, even if it comes with a ~30% K-rate. I echo AJ’s catching concerns, but I saw him do it in person and was actually encouraged, and I also saw him play a competent 1B in person. If he can be a C/1B/DH combo with a high OBP and big power, you will never hear me complain. In terms of who he might be replacing, I would think Collins is here the rest of the year, and either Castillo or Alonso get DFA’d on August 1 if the Sox can’t get anything for them.

Speaking of new faces, the Cubs are still waiting patiently for Craig Kimbrel to arrive in full. Is he going to solve their bullpen issues well enough, or are they still gonna need to look elsewhere? And relatedly, do you think they’d be wanting enough for back-end help to pay up for Alex Colome from the Sox?
Fels: Kimbrel definitely won’t solve everything, but he’s an improvement over what they have. It pushes Strop to be the fireman of sorts, or would if Maddon were in any way creative with his bullpen usage. They’ll still be on arm short, maybe two, because Maddon may have broken Cishek last year. Right now, Kintzler and Strop are the only ones they can consistently count on. Edwards was good upon his recall, but his hurt again and you can never quite trust him. There’s a chance Alzolay ends up being another arm late in the year, but even that will leave them one short I think. And while I’d love to tell you it’ll be my guy Dillon Maples…

Colome is a name they will definitely be connected to but I think their preference is going to be someone who throws left-handed. Will Smith maybe. And I don’t think they’re going to be too interested in forking over the boat for any other reliever.
The Sox are floating around .500 without surpassing it, but that won’t change their plans much. Still, other than Colome is there anyone they can get meaningful things for at the deadline now?
AJ: The only other players who might be worth anything at the deadline would be James McCann or Jose Abreu and at this point the offer would have to be fairly impressive for the Sox to budge on either.  Though Tim Anderson has come a long way I think Abreu is still the face of the franchise, and having him here to mentor the other Cuban kids matters more than most may think.  

As for McCann, even though his BABIP is insanely unsustainable his defense and his work with Giolito combined with his super affordable price make him pretty unmovable unless a team came along with a deal Hahn couldn’t refuse.
Sam, what’s up with Javy right now?  Is this just the inevitable result of his free swinging ways catching up to him?  Or is this something more to do with the foot injury he was nursing for a few weeks?  Maybe a combination of both?
Fels: You always worry about injuries lingering, and if it were they definitely wouldn’t tell you. But mostly I think this is just how Javy is, that there’s going to be a couple weeks or month, maybe even six weeks, where he makes you tear your hair out (if I had any) and then the rest of the time he’s the best show on Earth. He’s definitely gotten a little pull-happy and whereas in May and April he was actually taking a noticeable number of walks he hasn’t walked at all in June. Maybe the heel injury has slowed his swing a touch, we’ll never know. Once he starts going back to right field again, he’ll probably put up stupid numbers again. Javy doesn’t make a lot of sense, but I learned long ago to stop questioning it.

All right, feels like we’re ready to go for these two stupid games. Let’s get through it.
Everything Else

The Children Better Be the Future, Cuz We Ain’t Got No Present – Alex Turcotte

By Adam Hess 1903 0

Welcome to the FFUD #3 Pick Preview. Each day, we’ll look at one prospect the Hawks might have a chance at with the #3 pick and walk you through the ins and outs, the what-have-yous, the strands going through ol’ Duder’s head. We’ve narrowed it down to five guys, and much like the restaurant chain, you’ll likely walk in thinking, “This was a good idea,” and walk out grabbing or clenching some part yourself that you shouldn’t have to. Today is Alex Turcotte.

Physical Stats

Height: 5’11”; Weight: 185 lbs.; Shot: Left

On-Ice Stats (2018-19)

League: USHL/USDP; Team: USNTP Juniors/USNTP U18; Position: Center

53 GP, 39 G, 57 A, 36 PIM (Combined)

Why The Hawks Should Take Him

You rarely come across a player with the combination of offensive skill and defensive prowess at the center position that Turcotte brings. The last time the Hawks were in this position with a #3 pick, they found themselves one Jonathan Toews, and I’d venture a hot take and say that pick worked out. Turcotte has drawn comparisons to Toews, and some even have fentured to say that he may have a tad more offensive ability than Toews did at the time of his draft.

Turcotte’s ceiling is probably that of a 1C, although there are legitimate questions about A) his ability to reach that ceiling and B) how high he ranks on the list of 1C’s if/when he’s there. While the comparisons to Toews are certainly nice, I am of the belief that if NHL scouts really thought he had that kind of ceiling, he’d be the #2 pick in the draft. With all due respect to Kaapo Kakko, if it’s me I am taking the future 1C over the future top line winger.

Turcotte’s scoring ability seems to project well to the NHL, as some models (like this one) think he could be among the top producers at the NHL level among players in this draft. However those projection models are hardly 100% accurate, so of course take that with a grain of salt. That being said, at his ceiling Turcotte could be a franchise-anchoring center, and the Hawks don’t have anyone really close to that in the system right now. I love Dylan Strome and think there’s still a shot he can be a #1, but he’s more likely a long-term high-level 2C, which is perfectly fine. Turcotte’s timeline to the NHL and being that anchor of a team seems likely to align well with Toews eventual descent from greatness, but that also could be considered a negative as we will see now.

Along with it all, Turcotte is a local guy, which is certain to be a marketing home run and keep the giardiniera soaked idiots on their couches pleased.

Why The Hawks Shouldn’t Take Him

Let’s just rip off the band-aid here: the Hawks shouldn’t take him because he’s not Bowen Byram. More generally, he isn’t a defenseman, and while the 1C-ceiling type prospect is lacking in this organization, the Hawks don’t necessarily need to find one right away. Toews is coming off a strong “bounce-back” year in which the bad-luck bug finally left him alone. And while I did just say Strome is probably not a future-1C, we’re still only three years and 106 NHL games removed from NHL scouts thinking he was one, and he was nearly a point-per-game player after coming to the Hawks, and he’s still only 22, which all adds up to mean that he probably should get a bit more time to show if that ceiling is still there.

On top of that, Turcotte is not ready to play at the NHL level next year, and while that doesn’t necessarily have to be a priority with your #3 pick, it would certainly be nice to add someone who can contribute right away and has a high-level ceiling you lack in the system. You don’t get an opportunity like that in the draft if you’re not in the top-3, and the Hawks weren’t supposed to be here, so they have to maximize the return here.

On top of all of that, the Hawks picking a center when they so clearly need to address the blue line both now and in the future would signal a major lack of of what I call Knowing Just What The Fuck We Are Doing Here. We’ve talked about the embarrassment of riches the Hawks think they have on the blue line due to the NHL players (a term applied very loosely to most of the guys on the main roster) and prospects they have, but they lack major upside on anyone, unless you’re higher on Adam Boqvist than most, which I admittedly might be. But adding someone like Byram to the organization would actually put you in a position of strength, especially when you’d then have two of the better right-shooting blue line prospects in the game to potentially flip in the future for, say, a player who might have a ceiling as a 1C.

On top of that, Turcotte is a local guy, which certainly has the Hawks pitching a tent but has never proven to work out for them (Hinostroza, Hartman, Hayden, etc. WHY DID THEY ALL START WITH H?!?!). Not that being from Illinois means he is not the player people think he is, but if that ends up actually playing into his decision we have yet another red flag on this organization’s evaluative standards.

Also, you might end up handing Colorado a future pairing of Byram and Cale Makar, which would be grounds for firing on the stage immediately.

Verdict

Picking Turcotte would be fine, and I won’t necessarily be mad about it. But it has potential to be a major fuck up, would present a clear lack of understanding on the front office’s part of how to get back into contention, and I would definitely be disappointed.

Just pick Byram.