Baseball

Series Recap – Cubs Lose Two Of Three Vs. Giants: You Can’t Live With The Anal Horseshoe

By Sam Fels 1146 0

Game 1 Box Score: Giants 5, Cubs 4

Game 2 Box Score: Giants 5, Cubs 4 (13)

Game 3 Box Score: Cubs 4, Giants 1

It’s hypocritical after I got emotional after last night’s loss, and there was nearly a hole in my wall to prove it, but sometimes you run into a team that’s got a horseshoe up its ass for a period of time and there’s little you can do. Yeah, four runs isn’t a ton, but it’s also not a pittance. Really, as I went over in the Strop piece yesterday, one killing rally was started by Pablo Sandoval ripping a ball off his shoelaces, and another was ended by him doing the same. What do you do about that? You can rant and rave about more runs, and especially last night the Cubs probably should have found one more, but sometimes you’re dealing with forces beyond your capability. At least that’s what I’m hoping.

The Two Obs

-I’m going to motherfuck Alex Mills into a major league career. That change-up certainly plays at a major league level, but he’ll have to locate his fastball a little better because it’s not hard enough to not get killed when he misses with it (there’s a lot of negatives for you). Still, let’s all hope that’s his last start of the season.

-Am I living in a world where I have to accept Kyle Ryan is effective? His ground-ball rate since June 1 is in the high 60s, which is pretty obscene. These days with the pen, maybe it’s best to not ask too many questions because generally you’re not going to want the answers.

-Perhaps the main headline out of the series is that the Cubs finally punted Addison Russell’s ass back to the corn. Russell himself left them with no choice, or made his position untenable, not only through his play but also by admitting to being careless and rock stupid. I’m not sure the front office cares what the fans think, but I’m sure there were some curious looks from teammates when they read or heard the quotes about Russell not knowing or not following the signs. I’m going to guess they all know them.

All of it is an endorsement for Robel Garcia, who runs the risk of getting found out but can at least hit the ball damn hard. The defense is always going to be questionable, but for a third of the season you might be able to mitigate a good chunk of that through positioning. Hell, it’s what the Brewers did last year.

-I’m going to guess Bryant’s knee-knack isn’t that serious given the way he was paddling the ball all over the field this series.

-Almora had a homer today, and it would be nearly impossible for him to see Russell’s demotion and think he’s immune. He is hitting worse after all. I don’t know if Albert can save himself, and I don’t know that he will even be a Cub this time next week. It feels like he’s gotten pull-happy, but he doesn’t have the opposite field power of some, so I don’t know that being content dumping singles over the second baseman’s head is going to be sufficient.

-It’s just a touch infuriating to watch Chatwood gas the Giants with 97 MPH for four innings and wonder why he can’t ever get in a game. Yes, we know about how the control can go, but that’s not going to get better with use twice a month. Again, at least once a week Chatwood should be carrying multiple innings to save everyone else from exposure. I don’t know what’s so hard about this, but it clearly has never crossed Joe’s mind.

So the first part didn’t go as planned, but basically by coin flip. The Cubs still suck on the road, but now there’s no choice but to turn it up. The Brewers are vulnerable at the moment, and it’s time to stomp some goddamn authority or stop pretending you’re the class of the division. Let’s fucking go. Chimi-fucking-changas.

Onwards…

 

 

Hockey

Would Signing Jake Gardiner Actually Have Made Sense Now?

By Sam Fels 1761 0

When you’e watching Olli Maatta excel at the Chris Hudson trail technique behind Mikko Rantanen streaking to the net for his second of the night in January, you’re going to know the answer to this question more than you ever did.

When free agency started, Jake Gardiner was a no-go. We figured he would be too expensive and have to sign for too many years for what was only ok to good production. There were bigger fish (though he re-signed in San Jose), there were cheaper fits (the Hawks found them), and he didn’t seem to provide enough of what the Hawks needed, though some, for the expected investment.

But after the Hawks acquired Maatta and Calvin de Haan, which ups maybe only their professional experience and none of the mobility and skill problems, one has to ask if the Hawks wouldn’t have been better off waiting out the market on Gardiner.

That’s also completely unfair, because very few if any thought Gardiner would be left twisting in the wind. This isn’t baseball, where everyone now knows teams are just going to wait and wait and you can kind of set your price on the player you want and simply tap your foot and look at your watch until they accept it. Most business is done on July 1 (and before), and so if most teams expected Gardiner to sign on that day, it’s understandable.

Gardiner made $4M last year, and is probably still looking in the range of $6M or more to get pen to paper. That’s more than the Hawks have space for, though if they’d left Maatta alone they’d be right there. And Gardiner would come with something that Maatta or de Haan or really anyone on the roster right now cannot provide. That’s the first pass to the forwards, and the ability to open himself up to do so.

Gardiner has a 34-assist and 47-assist season to his name, and was on that pace again this past season but missed 20 games through injury. No, he’s not a top-pairing guy, but he has discernible skillset, which is more than we can say for Maatta. He’s been above the team rate in possession and expected-goals the last three years, and that was for some go-go Leafs teams. One would hope the Hawks would like to score lots of goals too.

Is it possible now? No, pretty much not. The Hawks would have to jettison Murphy on the blue line to make it work financially, and that would just be running place. Could they try and wheel Maatta out of town? Doesn’t seem like it’s in the plans, though you’ll be wishing it was soon enough.

Even if the market continued to drop on Gardiner, whatever spot you’d dream up for him probably should go to Boqvist with the cheaper rate, less years, better wheels, obviously more skill, even with the bigger questions. But hey, plans change, just as they did when the Hawks went with the impulse buy on Robin Lehner. But that was late in the day on July 1. Gardiner still wasn’t signed. Was that the call they should have made?

Again, we’ll lament this after trail-technique.

Baseball

Calling Up Ian Happ Now Is How We Got Here In The First Place

By Sam Fels 1490 0

I understand where the sentiment comes from. When you’re watching Albert Almora perform some modern performance art interpretation of sadness at the plate these days, or Daniel Descalso do anything, or Addison Russell even exist, you can’t help but turn your lonely eyes to Ian Happ’s numbers lately and think, “Well that has to be worth a try.” And maybe that troika has been so god awful that any player showing any spasm of being able to make contact is worth a look. Fuck, that’s how Robel Garcia got here, and he might just be David Bote II (Electric Bugaloo) but at least something might happen when he’s at the plate.

And of late, Happ has been hitting. In July in Iowa, he’s slashing .314/.442/.614. That’s pretty tantalizing. You are forgiven for thinking it’s enough. After all, Almora has shown he might not be a major league hitter at all, and Russell is right behind him. You figure neither would be able to produce a hot three weeks in AAA either. So Happ has to be better. And by all reports he hasn’t accidentally strangled himself in the field, so…

The truth is for all of them, an itchy trigger finger is (at least partially) to blame for their struggles in the majors.

In Happ’s case, his ascension to Wrigley came after only one hot month in AAA in 2017. 28 games, after a slightly above average half-season in AA. And it worked out in 2017 ok, at least for part of it, as Happ was able to hit for enough power to cover up his Ks. And overall, he was just a tick above average last year, but we know the second half was truly ugly. There wasn’t much of a base to fall back on, which was part of the point of sending him down this year. To build that base. Does two and a half weeks count as enough? Sure, the clock is ticking and with the deadline just a week away, the Cubs have basically shuttered any window Happ might have had to prove he was an answer. Thing is, Happ shuttered it too by waiting until July to hit AAA pitching with the same golf balls they’re using at the top level.

You can keep going on this list. Almora never hit in the minors. His one “dominant” stretch was at single-A for a half season. He didn’t dominate at AA or AAA, and when he was called up in ’16 we were told it was basically for his glove. And then he just stayed, trying to build his bat at the major league level. You can see how that’s working out as you try and suffocate yourself in your work lunch.

Russell’s track record in the minors was a little better, but again his ascension to the majors was built more on rep than production. Setting aside the fact that he’s a scumshithead for a moment, Russell did surge offensively at AA for both Oakland’s and Chicago’s system. That was after murdering high-A in 2013. But his Double-A work was only for half of a minor league season because of injury. He played 11 games in AAA before being called up, again mostly for his glove opposite Starlin Castro, which eventually ended up being on both sides. Another example of a player being asked to do most of his learning curve at the major league level, and Russel has never produced an above-average offensive season as a Cub. And he’s way far from it now.

You could throw Schwarber on this list too if you were inclined. But Schwarber absolutely mauled AA in a way that the other three never came close to. But he still only got 17 games at AAA in ’15 before being called up, and his struggles in his first full season in ’17 could be partially attributed to a simple lack of reps at lower levels. Even his much famed demotion in ’17 lasted 11 games, and he’s at least been average offensively since, but nothing like what he flashed. Was the rush to blame?

Even with Happ’s hot three weeks, that’s still less than two months of success at the AAA level total. Time is of the essence for the Cubs, we know that, but is sweeping up Happ in that again going to give you a better answer? At worst right now he’s a September supplement who would still have a month to carve himself out playing time, even if it’s just against lefties (which he’s been better against in Iowa as well).

And right now, that feels like the best case scenario for him, especially if the Cubs make a move for a bat in the next week. Otherwise, you’d have to call him up, with the team’s playoff hopes hinging on him and a base of just one good month in Iowa. Doesn’t seem like enough.

Hockey

If Lucic And Neal Can Be Traded…

By Sam Fels 2068 0

It is kind of amazing that in the NHL, that no matter how stupid and bad a contract, it always ends up getting moved somehow. We just saw it last week when the Calgary Flames and Edmonton Oilers, adding a level of farce to their longstanding rivalry, decided to swap headaches in Milan Lucic and James Neal. We’ve seen Patrick Marleau moved along this year, though his deal was only for three years and only turned bad for one. The list goes on for a bit, though it generally ends with someone being LTIR’d into death.

Still, it was harder to find worse deals than Milan Lucic’s and James Neal’s. If you’re the Oilers, you must be delighted, because there’s a small chance that at least for a season or two, Neal can just stand still and shoot and get you 15-20 goals. He shot just 5% last year, which is less than half of his career mark, and again, if he does nothing else that should rebound. He might get buried possession-wise, he might cost you more goals that way, but at least they can point to something and say, “Well he’s doing something. Is that oaf we traded for him?”

As for the Flames, they can…well I haven’t any idea what they can do. It’s just an inexplicable decision from them, especially for a team that got exposed as not fast enough when Nathan MacKinnon Sherman March’d their ass to the golf course over five games.

But it leads one to ask, if these two contracts can be moved, could Brent Seabrook’s?

No. No it can’t. And the differences are why.

For one, there’s a difference from having $5.2M and $5.7M on your deal, as Lucic and Neal do, and fucking $6.8M on it (you’d think I’d have developed some sort of mental scar tissue to protect myself when reading or writing that, but no, still wince and get queasy every time). Second, Seabrook was 32 when this public health crisis kicked in, and Lucic and Neal signed their deals either at 30 or even younger, when they were at least somewhere near whatever their “prime” was. Both Neal and Lucic are now 31, which is a hell of a lot different than 34 in hockey, as Seabrook is. Seabrook also has five years left on his, whereas Neal and Lucic only have four. So not only did he sign it older, it takes him to an older age.

But most of all, the Hawks haven’t poisoned the water around Seabrook, even if that is an underhanded tactic when done on purpose. Neal was a healthy scratch for the Flames in the playoffs for a game. He was scratched a few times during the season. He was deployed on the third and fourth lines. The same applies for Lucic. He has been healthy scratched, demoted to the fourth line and back again.

In both cases, the teams made it clear those players no longer had a fit on their teams. While still collecting a big check, these are still proud athletes with little wish to be on a team where it’s clear they weren’t wanted or would not be used. In Neal’s case more so, he still feels like he can contribute. After all, he’s only a season removed from being a 25-goal scorer on a Cup finalist. He didn’t feel the need to clean up whatever scraps Bill Peters deigns to toss off the table to him.

The Hawks have done no such thing to Seabrook. He’s only been healthy scratched once in the last two seasons, and that was by Joel Quenneville who’s no longer here. In fact, they’ve bent over backwards in some cases to make sure he doesn’t turn on their new an very fragile coach (or the coach’s very fragile hold on the team, to be more accurate). Seabrook has rarely lost playing time, still getting time with Duncan Keith and taking the top assignments at various points. It was only this past season that Seabrook’s average ice time dipped below 20 minutes per game, even though his play warranted that for a couple seasons, and even then it was still 19:04. At worst, that’s solidly second-pairing minutes. Among the d-men it ranked fourth behind Keith, Gustafsson, and Murphy.

Hell, the Hawks just moved out a kid who reasonably should have been taking most if not all his minutes to avoid upsetting the applecart…er, nacho-cart. Considering he was punted for nothing (GET THAT TASTE OUT YO MOUF, FEATHER!), if Jokiharju’s value was so low a properly run organization not still trying to cash in on nostalgia would have let him play on the third pairing all season if only to build his trade value.

So Seabrook hasn’t lost any playing time or influence, so why should he agitate for a move? Every mistake in the NHL gets cleared up somehow, but the Hawks haven’t really prepared the ground for that. He still gets to play, and he still gets power play time, and he still gets to feel like he wields the axe in the dressing room and organizationally, because he does. Brent Seabrook can get their coach fired if he wants, and if they fire that coach then you’d have to believe the GM has to go to, which might mean the president does as well, and it could be a total house-cleaning.

Perhaps this is only for another season. Perhaps Ian Mitchell and Adam Boqvist force the Hawks into some tough discussions and decisions, and Seabrook can only handle the pressbox for so long. Maybe they figure out something with retirement, who knows? But seeing those two contracts moved, you wonder if the Hawks couldn’t as well if they really wanted to.

Baseball

A Different Kind Of Deadline

By Sam Fels 1717 0

A week out from baseball’s one deadline to end them all, and the White Sox are in a different position than they have been. Last year and the year before, it was about shedding anything that wasn’t nailed down, and there was barely anything permanent on the roster. Though Rick Hahn has made his major moves in the offseason, he has cashed in on Jose Quintana, Todd Frazier, David Robertson, Anthony Swarzak, Melky Cabrera, Joakim Soria, Luis Avilan, and Xavier Cedeno in the middle of a season the past two years. The level of activity figures to be less this time around.

Most of the focus will be on the Sox bullpen, where Alex Colome, Aaron Bummer, and Jace Fry are all candidates to be dealt. The Sox have made noise about keeping any or all three, especially Colome, who has another year of arbitration left and figures to be affordable no matter what he gets through that route in the winter.

Still, the bounty on Colome and Bummer could be higher than normal, simply because of Will Smith. Only one team is going to get him out of the plethora (up to 12, reportedly), seeking him. Which means a bunch of teams are going to be desperate to keep up with the Joneses and get their own pitcher who has succeeded in the late innings this year. Bummer has the added bonus of being left-handed, which like every year is found gold (See you tomorrow, Mr. Pocket!). A team watching Smith go to a direct competitor might convince itself of the absolute must-have Bummer is after that.

The Sox will tell you that they can be competitive as soon as next year, assuming something close to full health from Jimenez, Moncada, Anderson, Robert, Abreu, and McCann in the lineup and the rotation manages to somehow stay in one piece (all of this together seems like huge ask at the moment, but that’s life). And along with that, they’ll need someone to preserve leads and ties in 8th and 9th innings, and Bummer and Colome have already proven they can do that. The devil you know and all that.

Seems a little shortsighted. One, relievers can be found just about anywhere, or crafted from anywhere (and I personally believe Carlos Rodon‘s future is that of a Southside Josh Hader, a multi-inning relief weapon, but let’s have that discussion another time that ends with Fifth Feather beating me over the head with his shoes). If Bummer and Colome can bring back multiple pieces, even just lottery tickets, you’d have to think long and hard about that. There are maybe a handful of relievers worth getting attached to in baseball. Neither of those guys is one of them.

And considering the arms race the AL has become, there is no such thing as too much depth. The Astros won over 100 games last year and still added Yordan Alvarez through their system this term. And there are more they could. The Yankees have like 12 hitters. The Dodgers add another mutant or two every year. You needn’t look any farther than the other side of town to see how you can fall behind when your system stops producing, or is stripped, or both for just a season or two. So the Sox may think they’ll be all set in a year’s or two’s time when Robert and Madrigal join the ones who are already here, but you still have to keep going if you want to compete with the aristocracy in baseball.

If Colome and Bummer do that, you probably have to pull the trigger on it. There’s always more where that came from.

Baseball

Well, Guess It’s Time To Talk About Pedro Strop

By Sam Fels 1472 0

Generally I would leave this kind of thing for a series recap, but the heat from last night’s loss–which definitely had the feel of one you’ll look back on in September and kick something (or this team will make it moot and prove to be worth something, but we’ll see)–probably warrants more. You say things after that kind of loss that after any kind of thinking you know isn’t true. But damn it feels good, doesn’t it? So let’s try and get to the real, except in a non-MTV fashion.

One is the idea that Strop has pitched himself out of high-leverage situations. And there certainly are enough examples now that you could make that case, except they’re not all in a row. The first high-profile cock-up, and one that Sox fans are likely to be citing for years to come, came to Eloy of course. But Strop followed that up with three straight scoreless and hitless outings, and four scoreless outings (giving up just one hit in the fourth outing after). He gave up three hits in an inning in Pittsburgh next, and you may remember that inning as the one Willson Contreras cut down Melky Cabrera at home to keep it scoreless.

After that, he put up another spotless inning before giving up a three-run homer to Starling Marte the next trip out there. Two more spotless outings before he gave up a tying homer against the Padres on Friday (a scorching hot day where everything was leaving), but rebounded the next day. And of course, last night.

So yes, taken as a whole Strop’s record of late doesn’t suggest someone who should be getting the 8th over Kintzler (whether Kintzler was available last night is another question, though). But it hasn’t been a “streak” per se, and you could see if you squint where Maddon could just as easily conclude Strop had some momentum to ride. Strop certainly has earned the most amount of leash as anyone.

Secondly, the idea that Strop isn’t getting whiffs, one I suggested in the aftermath. Again, this just isn’t true. Overall, he’s getting the same amount of swinging strikes as he always has. Broken down by pitch, his slider is getting the same amount of whiffs-per-swing it did in previous seasons, his four-seam is only down a tick, and a split he’s featured this year gets whiffs on a third of the swings it sees.

But the problem area is obvious. It’s his two-seam or sinker, depending on what site is calling it what. It’s only generating 3% whiffs-per-swing. It was the culprit in the homers to Jimenez, Marte, and Naylor. Hitters are managing a .556 average against it (that’s batting average, not slugging), and a slugging 1.556. That’s…unholy.

Still, it’s hard to separate Strop’s two-seam from his four-seam, because they’ve basically both been the same speed his whole career. And both are down a tick in velocity, to 94 MPH average. Strop has never had pinpoint control, but he could miss his spots at 95 or 96. He can’t at 93 or 94, which is what’s obvious.

Still, last night is a touch on the weird side. Pablo Sandoval has made a career of hitting pitches he shouldn’t be swinging at, and that slider was nearly on his shoelaces. I mean, come on…

So that’s just rotten luck. Crawford’s single was just a well-placed grounder, and if it’s two feet to the right it’s a double play and the whole inning is basically over. But both Slater and Panik teed off on fastballs, though the one Panik hit was outside the zone and if it there was a problem it was just a little high. Still, probably not where Strop wanted it.

Another idea I’ve had that isn’t really the truth is that Strop needs to throw his slider more. Well, he is, at least compared to last year. He’s throwing it 40% of the time, compared to 30% last year. However, the two seasons previous, he basically threw it half the time. Those were two of his best seasons as a Cub, though his best came the year before when he threw it about as much as he does now.

Like everyone else, the contact numbers against Strop are getting worse. But his ground-balls are up significantly from last year and in line with his heyday as a Cub. Still, the added FIVE MPH on his exit velocity and the barrel % nearly tripling is a real problem. It’s beyond a problem. It’s an air raid siren.

Health is never far from the discussion with Strop now, because he’s missed time the past three or four seasons. One wonders if he’s getting the push from his legs that he needs considering it’s been leg trouble almost every time he’s landed on the IL.

Another issue is there just aren’t many options. Thanks to Carl Edwards Jr. finally giving fully in to his mental-turtle ways, and Brandon Morrow not actually existing, and Brad Brach’s terminal case of being Brad Brach, you can understand why Maddon is going to wait until he has no choice but to not trust a pitcher who has given him five seasons of plus service. If Kinztler was down, who else do you go to last night after Cishek was used? You tossing Rowan Wick there already?

Going forward, wherever he is used, Strop probably needs to ditch the two-seam fastball, use his slider half the time, and maybe see if he can also play his split off his fastball. But he is 34, and one wonders if this isn’t just time catching up. It better not be, because the Cubs need him. They can’t get three more arms before the trade deadline. Even two is going to be tough. Some answers are going to have to come internally. It’s hard to see a scenario where Strop isn’t one of them and this team going where it needs to.

Baseball

Series Preview – White Sox vs. Marlins: Goin’ Fishin’

By Andy Jonathan 1664 0

              VS

RECORDS: Marlins 36-61   White Sox 44-52

GAMETIMES: Monday-Wednesday at 7:10

TV: NBCSN Monday and Tuesday, WGN Wednesday

Booger Sugar: Fish Stripes

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Game 1: Chevy Nova vs Trevor Richards

Game 2: Dylan Covey vs Caleb Smith

Game 3: Reynaldo Lopez vs TBD

 

 

PROBABLE WHITE SOX LINEUP

Leury Garcia – RF

Yoan Moncada – 3B

Jose Abreu – 1B

James McCann – C

Jon Jay – LF

Wellington Castillo – DH

Yolmer Sanchez – 2B

Adam Engel– CF

Jose Rondon – SS

 

PROBABLE MARLINS LINEUP

Curtis Granderson – LF

Martin Prado – 3B

Brian Anderson – RF

Garrett Cooper – 1B

Starlin Castro – 2B

Jorge Alfaro – C

Miguel Rojas – SS

Cesar Puello – CF

Yadiel Rivera – DH

 

Well that was odd.  The White Sox certainly weren’t supposed to show up in Tampa Bay and take the series from the wild card sniffing Rays but that’s exactly what happened. The series featured a return to form for Reynaldo Lopez and Lucas Giolito, who both looked extremely comfortable on the mound, leaving Ray-shaped piles of ash in the opposing batters boxes. The Marlins, meanwhile, did exactly what everyone expected of them by losing the series to the Unholy Terror that is the Dodgers.  Both teams have had stupid travel schedules the past few weeks, having been on both coasts (Oakland and Tampa for the Sox and NY and LA for the Fish) only to meet in the middle here on the Southside.

The Fish have been taking the path the White Sox have as far as lineup construction this season, they just haven’t had the big name prospects producing the way Moncada and Giolito have.  They also haven’t hit on any lottery tickets like the Sox did with James McCann. They’re dead last in the NL in offensive categories, and fourth from the bottom in pitching stats. The only bright spots for the Marlins this year come from Brian Anderson and Caleb Smith. Anderson provides consistent pop from the 3B spot and currently leads the team in WAR 1.7 (Simpsons collar tug.gif). He was drafted in the 3rd round back in 2014, and while he didn’t tear up the lower levels, his production has steadily increased over the past seasons and may end up being a nice surprise for Miami in the long run.

Caleb Smith came over to Miami in a trade from the Yankees, who drafted him in the 14th round (!) back in 2013. His first full year in 2018 he posted a 4.19 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and lead Miami’s rotation in strikeouts. His fastball isn’t anything to write home about speed-wise, only averaging about 92.5 in speed. It’s the spin rate of the pitch that makes it so effective, as it’s in the top 15% across the league. He’s had some injury issues this season, and missed a decent chunk of time with hip problems. He’s under team control for five more years, but the Super Brain Geniuses in Fish Central Control have said that they’re willing to listen to offers for him.

As far as our Southside Stalwarts go, not much has changed lineup-wise as Eloy and Timmy are still on the shelf with their respective elbow and ankle issues. Rick Hahn was quoted as saying that we should know more about Timmy’s rehab status later today after his medical evaluation.  Luis Robert continues to murder balls down at AAA, causing Hahn to temper everyone’s hopes earlier than expected. Ricky Renteria got some interesting news from his Pitching Rotation Ouija Board so it looks like Dylan Covey is going to get a start Tuesday night instead of the Better Dylan for reasons that only beings from The Beyond can answer. Wellington Castillo is still here, so it looks like the WAR from the DH position is still going to be in the negative for the foreseeable future.

The Sox built some momentum this past series against a much better team than them, lets see if they can continue it against one of the few teams with a legitimately worse rotation than them.

Let’s Go Sox

Baseball

Marlins Spotlight: Castaway

By Andy Jonathan 1277 0

Starlin Castro has some pretty nice career stats.  4 All Star selections, 120 HR and almost 600 RBIs in 1400 career games with a .279 average is nothing to sneeze at.  He currently holds the record for most RBIs ever by a rookie in his first game with six.  A pretty excellent MLB career by any standards, but why then does it feel like Castro has been a bust?  I’m pretty sure that any GM would take a 2B with that kind of production any day of the week, and yet Castro is stuck plying his trade in the dead zone of Miami.  With the trade deadline approaching and Derek Jeter likely to trade anything that isn’t nailed down, you’d think that Castro would be the first to go.  With him getting hot down the stretch before the trade deadline (he’s hit .429 in July, with 3 bombs), there shouldn’t be any end to the suitors that would want his services, especially with only a team option left for next season.

Yet it seems the hot stove doesn’t include a ton of phone calls for the 29 year old second baseman.  A closer look at his stats this year shows that his power has completely evaporated, his usually solid batting average has plunged, as even after his hot July he’s still only hitting .250 and his BABIP has never been lower at .262 (yikes).  Defensively he’s always been at the bottom of the league, as his career UZR is a whopping -10.  With the league looking more and more at advanced stats these days, suddenly the reason for the lack of interest in Castro becomes more apparent.  Even if the Fish were able to move him to a contender, the return would probably be pretty negligible as he would most likely be used for a utility position.

The biggest benefit to the Marlins would be freeing up a spot for their #6 prospect and the 3rd player in the Christian Yelich trade, Isan Diaz.  Diaz is currently tearing up AAA for the New Orleans Babycakes (who’s mascot is the stuff nightmares are made of), and will be the one called up if the Fish are able to get anything at all for Castro.  Even if they aren’t, odds are they DFA him to try and save a little salary rather than hold Diaz down until September.  Once the offseason arrives and Castro is inevitably bought out for 1 million (instead of the 11 million option), he will hit the free agent market at the worst possible time.  He will be entering his age 30 season with some of his worst peripheral stats at a time when every team will be looking at them.  He will most likely be the poster child for the type of player that would’ve gotten a 4 year deal worth 30 million 5 years ago, but will now at best be offered a minor league tryout.    All told despite the solid career numbers, Castro will probably be nothing more than the guy who the Dumbest Owner in Baseball traded Giancarlo Stanton for.  That’s quite the career path for someone who was once expected to be the second coming of Ryne Sandberg by most folks in baseball, and should be a cautionary tale going forward.

Baseball

Series Preview – Cubs vs. Giants: So You Think You Can Dance?

By Sam Fels 1370 0

vs.

RECORDS: Cubs 54-45   Giants 50-50

GAMETIMES: Monday and Tuesday 8:45, Wednesday 2:45

TV: WGN Monday, ABC 7 Tuesday, NBCSN Wednesday

THEY CAN’T AFFORD IT EITHER: McCovey Chronicles

PITCHING MATCHUPS

Alec Mills vs. Shaun Anderson

Yu Darvish vs. Madison Bumgarner

Jon Lester vs. Tyler Beede

PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

Kyle Schwarber – LF

Javier Baez – SS

Kris Bryant – RF

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Robel Garcia – 2B

Jason Heyward – CF

David Bote – 3B

Martin Maldonado – C

PROBABLE GIANTS LINEUP

Brandon Belt – 1B

Buster Posey – C

Pablo Sandoval – 3B

Alex Dickerson – LF

Brandon Crawford – SS

Mike Yastrzemski – RF

Kevin Pillar – CF

Donovan Solano – 2B

 

The Cubs have been woeful on the road all season, coming into this one at 18-27. There won’t be time for that on this nine-game trip however, as the final six are against their closest competitors in the NL Central, and any spit-up there is going to make this season just about as urpy as it can get. Before they get to that portion though, they’ll have to deal with one of the hottest teams in baseball, and also one that’s on the precipice of a franchise turning sell-off, in the San Francisco Giants.

So yes, hottest team in the NL. That’s the Giants with their 14-3 record in July. But if you’re looking over this roster and thinking the only way this team could rip off 15 in 18 is by some serious voodoo and wiccan shit, you’re right! The Giants are 22-10 in one-run games. Sure, maybe having Will Smith helps that to close out games, but as we know one-run records are almost entirely luck, and the Giants have been getting all of it of late. Four of those last five wins were in extra innings, and they just came off a four-game series with the Mets that lasted 47 innings. So you might get the impression this pen is a bit cooked heading into this one.

On the sheets, this team isn’t much. The legends that brought it three parades five years are on the downside of their career, and that’s being kind. None of Posey, Crawford, or Belt have provided anything much more than average at the plate for the entirety of the season, but Crawford and Evan Longoria have provided a death rattle over the past month to help fuel this binge of empty wins. Longoria is on the shelf now with plantar fascitis, which is definitely a condition you want in an aging player. Of course, Pablo Sandoval wandered in from the buffet and has hit everything of late, because that’s how it’s going for them. One thing you definitely want to do is count on Sandoval to keep hitting.

The Giants have gotten a boost from retreads like Alex Dickerson and Stephen Vogt, but you know what those things are over a long enough timeline. Donovan Solano and Austin Slater are other whosits that have popped over the last little stretch, but counting on any of this to last much longer is definitely making fantasies out of clouds.

The rotation for most of the year has straight up blown chunks, with only Bumgarner carrying a FIP under 4.00. Jeff Samardzija still grinds and grinds and grunts and grunts his way to a 4.50 ERA if he’s lucky, but of late Tyler Beede has found some kind of formula. Shaun Anderson has not. The Cubs might be witnesses to Bumgarner’s final start as a Giant, as the deadline is only a week after his Tuesday start and he could end up anywhere before then.

The pen has been the real miracle-workers, with Will Smith perhaps being the most prized arm, reliever or starter, on the market right now. But Sam Dyson, Reyes Moronta, Trevor Gott, even Mark Melancon, and Tony Watson (another name on the block) have all been excellent trotting down from where they forgot to put the bullpens at Oracle Park (they seriously did). When the Giants decide to move along Smith and Watson and maybe others is when you feel this will all crumble for them, but you can’t hang onto relievers that can net as much as Smith can right now for some desperate chase for one more game. I mean you can, it would just be moronic to do so.

For the Cubs, a minor roster tweak as Carl Edwards Jr. was sent back to Iowa with Rowan Wick likely his replacement. What Edwards was doing up at all if one bad outing has his ass punted back to the corn is an open question, but one I’m not going to wade too deeply into as my blood pressure sucks anyway. If you feel this latest demotion finally ends any hope that Edwards can be part of the puzzle going forward, you’re not alone. Which means the search for more arms in relief has to be cranked up, because Cishek and Strop are creaky, Brandon Morrow might not even exist, and everything else is tossed into a wish-pool.

The season doesn’t hinge on this trip, but it’s close. If the Cubs can march through it like Sherman, they could give themselves a cushion in the division that feels and looks awfully nice. If they reinsert their thumb in their ass as they’ve done on the road most of the season, they could be staring up at two teams and be in for an awfully desperate and scrappy last two months. None of these teams are great, and though the Cubs might not be either they’re better than these three. They played like it on the homestand, now to take that show on the road.

Baseball

Giants Spotlight: The Bum’s Rush

By Sam Fels 1229 0

There will be no bigger name on the move in the next week or so than Madison Bumgarner. That’s what happens when you get tabbed a playoff hero, seen as someone who can still swing a playoff series (rightly or wrongly, and mostly wrongly these days), and also keep your name in the headlines by being a miserable son of a bitch. Bumgarner checks all those boxes.

The first thing to clear up about Madison Bumgarner is he’s not THAT good. Through most of his career he’s been a low-level #1 or a high-end #2, which was fine when the Giants had Lincecum and Cain in front of him and worked out well when he did pitch like a celestial being for a few weeks in 2014. Since he came into the league, he ranks 13th in WAR, which is good but is also right on par with Gio Gonzalez and Anibal Sanchez and yes, Jose Quintanta (who has made 40 less starts than Bumgarner in that time). He’s not a Sale or Scherzer or deGrom or anything like that, though sometimes it feels like he’s billed as that because of 2014.

So what would any prospective team be getting from this Madison Bumgarner? One, it’s a healthy one finally, as MadBum only threw 241 innings the previous two seasons dealing shoulder problems caused and not caused falling off his dirtbike looking for various woodland creatures to cook over an open fire for dinner that week. Bumgarner has already thrown 125 innings this year, which pretty much matches last year’s total.

And those innings have been much more effective. He’s striking out far more hitters (9.10 per 9 vs. 7.57) and walking less (1.86 BB/9 vs. 2.98). His ERA is strangely worse but his FIP is much better. Also strange for a pitcher of Bumgarner’s age is that he’s gained some life on his fastball this year, averaging over 92 MPH on it for the first time in four seasons. That’s probably something to do with health. His curve is also getting more sweep, picking up horizontal movement without losing its tilt. It makes it more slurve-y, which isn’t ideal, and maybe why Bumgarner is using it far less than he did last year.

There are some warning signs with Bumgarner as well. One, his ground-balls are down measurably and the lowest rate of his career. Again, some of this is just because this is happening to most everyone, but a drop of five percent is more than one that can be dismissed as a sign of the times. And it’s been replaced mostly by line-drives, which is not good either. Bumgarner’s hard-contact rate is the highest of his career by a distance, and if he were to move to a park that didn’t require a bazooka to get a ball out of, that could turn into a real problem fast.

Recent outings only muddle the picture more. On the surface, Bumgarner has only given up three earned runs in his last four starts, But two of those comprised only seven innings combined, as rain shortened one start to two innings. The walks were non-existent, but there’s been a ton of loud contact in July (53%). Bumgarner has also lost a full MPH off his fastball in the month, which wouldn’t get anyone putting on their red shoes to dance the blues in excitement either.

The next question is what is Bumgarner worth. His contract being up after the season certainly lowers his value, and this is not Verlander or someone like that changing teams midstream. The Giants are probably dreaming about a package similar to Chris Archer netted the Rays last year, as Bumgarner is better than that. But it’s hard to find a teams as stupid as the Pirates again, and Archer wasn’t a free agent to be. That was two prime prospects, and any kind of bidding war probably inches the Giants toward that. What they may fear is a return that Cole Hamels provided the Rangers, which was a journeyman major leaguer in Eddie Butler, and a couple of lower-level lottery tickets that are nowhere near the majors. Bumgarner is younger and not struggling as Hamels was at the time, so the answer is probably somewhere in the middle.

Then again, it becomes a question of do the Giants move him at all. Logic tells you there’s no choice to be made here, and their window has shut and whatever they feel they might “owe” mainstays like Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, and Brandon Crawford are just going to have to wait a few years while they try and redo the supporting cast beneath them. And the way Crawford is playing these days, it probably doesn’t matter anyway. Still, the Giants are one of the hottest teams in baseball, and are somehow only 2.5 games out of the wildcard. Of course, if you have to go nuclear just to get to .500 and be within touching distance of a coin-flip game with four teams to leap still, that’s pretty much every answer you need on what you should do.

Bumgarner’s trade isn’t going to change the fortunes of the Giants as heavily as they might want. But it would certainly signal a change in direction for good, and put an official bow on their run. Even though those things are hard to quantify and shouldn’t matter, they make this kind of move hard to deal with for everyone. But nothing lasts forever, except the three flags in the outfield at Oracle.