Baseball

We Know Your Nature – 2019 Cubs Player Reviews: Albert Almora

By Sam Fels 1487 0

As the Cubs have searched for a manager, and my fears about the offseason in general grow thanks to having far too much time on my hands and struggling to escape the cynicism of my youth, one thing I’ve tried to reassure myself with is that it’s not really in Theo Epstein’s DNA to do something completely moronic. Something you’d see the Mets or Edmonton Oilers do. Sure, some moves haven’t worked out or not gone as well as hoped, but almost every one of them you could see the logic behind at the time. The math added up.

Except for his first draft pick here in Chicago. That might have been a complete and utter whiff. Seems to be a theme in Chicago sports these days.

2019 Stats

130 games, 363 PAs

.236/.271/.381

12 HR  41 RBI

4.4 BB%  17.1 K%

64 wRC+  .271 wOBA  .651 OPS

-1.1 Defensive Runs Saved  -0.7 WAR

Tell Me A Story: This season started much like 2018 did, with a lot of people contending–even screaming from the truly unhinged–that what Albert Almora Jr. really needed was just consistent playing time. That being jerked in and out of the lineup and never starting more than three days in a row, if that, was stunting his development. It ended just like 2018 did, where it’s pretty clear that there isn’t anything to develop.

There was only one stretch of the season where Almora looked like a Major Leaguer, and that was May with a 107 wRC+. That was almost entirely due to hitting six homers in the month, and seeing as how he managed six more in the other five months, one wouldn’t count on that to happen too often again, if ever at all.

This is where the “WE NEED CONTACT” Big Audio Dynamite tribute argument kind of falls flat for me, though it’s cherry-picking admittedly. Albert Almora makes plenty of contact. He doesn’t walk much, but he doesn’t strike out much either. The problem is almost all of that contact is soft, and most of it is on the ground. So where does that get you? A negative-WAR player’s what it gets you. But hey, if you think the answers to the Cubs problems are having more guys ground out to short more often, well you go as far as you can with that, Big Shooter.

To be fair to AA, his hard-contact rate in July and August was actually pretty good, and his ground-ball rate declined throughout the season. But that’s also when his playing time dried up, which he also earned, so it’s hard to tell if that’s progress or just a few spasmed ABs out of a shallowing collection of them. And I don’t think the Cubs are going to bother to find out anyway.

If Almora was taken in the first round due to his athleticism, and you’d never followed him before, you’d swear he suffered some sort of bad knee injury in the minors or something. He’s slow, and he doesn’t have natural power because he doesn’t really have that much bat-speed. Even his instincts, which somehow had him stumble into being a decent centerfielder, went away this year as he graded out negatively in the field. Which would lead one to ask what it is he does at all. And that would be a question no one has an answer for right now, other than really upgrade the hair in the clubhouse.

But he rescues dogs, so he’s a good guy.

Contract: Team Control, Arbitration eligible in 2021

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: Well, he can’t be on the team next year. All he’s earned is a fifth-outfielder role and if the Cubs have any hope, however slim, that Almora can develop into anything he’s not going to do it with four ABs a week. What the Cubs probably need to do, because he has options left and they never actually let him do it before calling him up, is play full-time in AAA for a full season. Or most of it. Almora never hit in the minors before joining the 2016 team. He just had a glove and promise. Now he doesn’t seem to have either. He’ll get you nothing in a trade, and I doubt you could even make him a throw-in to another deal at this point. He costs nothing, so there’s not much harm in letting him get at least three or four months in Des Moines to play every day and see if he can’t discover something, while Happ and Heyward and possibly an acquisition figure out centerfield at Wrigley.

At 26 at the beginning of next season, you don’t want to say that there’s no hope for Almora. But also by 26 we should have seen something, anything, to suggest there’s anything to be excavated out of him. Have you? No, you haven’t. And he’s not going to get faster, which probably means the defense is going to struggle to be plus before too long. If that ship hasn’t sailed already.

Maybe a new manager can whisper something to him, and stop putting him in spots to fail like Maddon had a habit of doing (he’s leading off again, is he Joe? How does Binny’s pay you exactly?). But everything with Almora needs to be considered a longshot at this point. And before too long, it’ll probably be in another uniform.

Baseball

All The Boys In The Band Know How To Get Down – 2019 Sox Player Reviews: You’ve Tried The Best, Now Try The Rest!

By Andy Jonathan 1149 0

So here we are, at the end of the position players who had the majority of the impact on the 2019 White Sox team. What’s left is the detritus, the flotsam, the garbage in the Death Star trash chute. Some of these guys will have a job with the Sox next year, but a good chunk of them will not. This is going to be an abbreviated stats write up, as I don’t think 2,000 words on AJ Reed will do anything for anyone. So without further ado, here is…

 

The Rest

 

ADAM ENGEL

2019 Stats

.242/.304/.383

6 HR 26 RBI 26 R

0.8 WAR +2 DRS 

Tell Me A Story: With the miserable off-season Rick Hahn had in 2018 the Sox were left with no real plan for the outfield other than Eloy Jimenez in left. They let Avisail Garcia walk down to Tampa Bay to have a career year, but made up for it by signing Friend of Manny and Human Stick Figure Jon Jay to a one year deal. This left center field pretty much Adam Engel’s by default. At this point, Engel is a known quantity. He plays plus defense at a premium defensive position, and swings what appears to be a soggy pool noodle when he’s at the plate. He’s a prototypical 4th outfielder at best, but that’s very good to have on a team that has deigns on postseason play. The Sox did not, and thus Engel started 90 games this year. To his credit, he finished the season very strong at the plate, and bumped his average above the Mendoza Line.

Contract: $516,000 under team control until 2021, then 3 years arbitration eligible.

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: Unless something really wacky happens, Engel will be back in a Sox uniform in 2020. He’s great as your 4th OF, or a late inning defensive replacement and won’t actively kill you at the plate.

 

RYAN GOINS

2019 Stats

.250/.333/.347

2 HR 10 RBI 13 R

0.2 WAR +1 DRS

Tell Me A Story: Ryan Goins was picked up off the prospect trash heap by the Sox in 2019 and intially sent to AAA as an extra body to fill out the Charlotte roster. He responded to the move by hitting .322 down there and playing above average D for the Knights. The Sox rewarded him with a callup in July when injuries began to hurt both the infield and outfield. He actually started out pretty hot, hitting .300 in his first month before falling back to earth and ending at .250 for the season. All in all not too shabby for a guy with the ability to play anywhere in the infield or outfield.

Contract: $975,000 in 2019, 3rd year of arbitration in 2020 estimated at $900,000 by MLBTR.

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: A tough one here. At $900K the price is right for a utility infielder/outfielder. Most of it depends on what the Sox do with Leury Garcia. If they think the $4 million is too much for him and he walks, Goins most likely stays. If Garcia stays, Goins probably starts the season back in AAA while he waits for another opportunity.

 

DANIEL PALKA

2019 Stats (Don’t Look)

.107/.194/.179

2 HR 4 RBI 4 R

-1.3 WAR -4 DRS

Tell Me A Story: In 2018 it seemed like the Sox had found a diamond in the rough when he hit 27 home runs and slashed .240/.294/.778. Granted his splits were terrible against lefties and his defense was hilariously bad (-13 DRS in LF) but he was one of the few feel good stories the Sox had in 2018 and was probably the main reason the Sox didn’t actively pursue someone like Michael Brantley in the off-season. The shine came off almost immediately in 2019, as Palka went 12 games to start the season without a hit and was summarily demoted to AAA. He reappeared a few more times during the season, but whatever fix he had down in Charlotte (where he hit .263 with 26 HRs) never came back with him. Ohhh man. I like DP, I really do. He seems like a funny guy online and very approachable. This season, however, is one for the record books and one he and the Sox want to forget as soon as possible.

Contract: $567,000 in 2019 and 2020, arbitration eligible in 2021

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: This is tough, as we have all seen what Palka can do when his mechanics are working at the big league level. Most likely Palka starts down in Charlotte again next season and only comes up if the need arises. The Sox will (hopefully) address the left handed power shortage through free agency.

RYAN CORDELL

2019 Stats

.221/.290/.355

7 HR 24 RBI 22 R

-2.2 WAR -2 DRS

Tell Me A Story: Ryan Cordell is the definition of “a guy” who “plays baseball” for the “major league Chicago White Sox” in 2019. Honestly, he’s a career minor league player who has ground his way through the lower levels and finally got a break with the Sox in 2019. He played decent, looks handsome and had an awesome pinch hit home run against the Tigers in July. That’s about it.

Contract: $555,000 in 2019, under team control for the next 3 years.

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: Unless Cordell plays his way onto this roster by having an unbelievable spring training he’s most likely destined to be back in AAA next season. The Sox have better options up and down their lineup.

DANNY MENDICK

2019 Stats

.308/.325/.462

2 HR 4 RBI 6 R

0.2 WAR 0 DRS

Tell Me A Story: Danny Mendick was drafted by the White Sox in the 22nd round of the 2015 draft. He moved steadily up through the lower levels of the minors hitting around .260 during his journey but always with consistent power. The Sox decided to give him a shot in September and purchased his contract during call ups. He responded pretty well, hitting for power consistently again during his time at the big league level. He played decent D in the infield and is an intriguing piece for the Sox going forward.

Contract: $550,000 in 2019, under team control for the next 3 years before arbitration

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: This will be an interesting story line in spring training. Mendick has shown pretty significant power at every level of the minors, and may turn out to be more than just “a guy” for the Sox in the infield. A lot depends on what the Sox do with Leury Garcia, but Mendick has a decent chance to be on the opening day roster in some capacity. We shall see.

MATT SKOLE

2019 Stats

.208/.275/.236

0 HR 6 RBI 7 R

-0.5 WAR 0 DRS

Tell Me A Story: Honestly, I’d rather not. Skole is the latest in a loooooong line of failures by the White Sox to properly staff the DH position. He played in 9 games and was utterly unremarkable in all of them.

Contract: 55,500,000 pennies were put in Skole’s bank account. Which is good work if you can get it.

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: If Matt Skole comes back in any capacity next season things have gone horribly wrong and I’m probably not watching it.

 

GONE AND HOPEFULLY FORGOTTEN

Jon “MIA” Jay

Charlie “I’m Not The Coldplay Guy” Tilson

Nicky “Nicky” Delmonico

Yonder “Fuck” Alonso

AJ “Fat Sami Zayn” Reed

Baseball

We Know Your Nature – 2019 Cubs Player Reviews: Kyle Schwarber

By Sam Fels 1445 0

WITNESS ME BLOODBAG!

2019 Stats

155 games, 610 plate appearances

.250/.339/.531

38 HR  82 RBI

11.5 BB%  25.6 K%

120 wRC+  .357 wOBA  .871 OPS

-7.1 Defensive Runs Saved  2.4 WAR

Tell Me A Story: There probably isn’t a better lesson in development not being linear than Kyle Schwarber. It was a given after his Doomsday 2nd half in 2015 that Schwarber would be taking aim and eventually bringing down the scoreboard in right field. But it didn’t work that way, as The War Bear got hurt, then spent ’17 and ’18 going through the growing pains he was supposed to go through in 2016. There was the cursed leadoff spot (which I will still contend he was good at and could be again if the Cubs really needed him to be). It got to the point where some fans and media had given up on him. And hell, it even took until the second half of this season for people to be convinced that Schwarber was going to be anything like we thought he would.

Overall, Schwarber’s season is really good. If you were to focus on just the second half, where he slashed .280/.366/.631 for a wRC+ of an astronomic 151 (for comparison, a season-long 151 would have ranked 7th in all of baseball right behind Anthony Rendon), then it’s really ya-ha time. The question for Schwarber and the Cubs and all of us is whether or not Schwarber is that guy from just the second half. Of course, most teams would settle for the whole of ’19 from their left fielder. Perspective is king, people.

There isn’t too much to suggest it simply can’t be. His BABIP in the second half was .287, which is high for Schwarbs simply due to the shifts he sees but hardly out of line by league-average standards. His hard-contact rate was above 40% in both halves of the season, which would suggest he was a touch unlucky in the first more than lucky in the second (though somewhat boosted by the 54% hard-contact rate he had in September). And nothing really changed about his approach, as the direction of his hits and contact remained pretty steady from first half to second half. And on a team that had trouble hitting the ball hard, Schwarber ranked 9th in all of MLB in average exit velocity. You wouldn’t get that long of odds on him repeating the second half for a full season, let’s say.

If there’s a problem area for Schwarber, it had been breaking balls. And overall, his numbers on sliders and curves this year aren’t impressive. But at the end of the year, in September, he blistered them for a .308 average and a .373 wOBA. Now maybe that’s just a one month spike, or maybe it’s an adjustment to how pitchers adjusted after getting weary of seeing their fastballs and sinkers turned into confetti somewhere over the right field wall. We’ll need more than a month to know, but it’s at least an encouraging start.

Could it actually get better? Maybe? The thing is Kyle’s walk-rate was the lowest of his career, at a still more than decent 11.8%. It was over 15% the year before, and over 13% in his rookie year. There are more walks in there. Some of that is Kyle being a little more willing to go get things a little outside because he can still do things with those pitches, But if he’d had ’18’s walk-rate this year he would have had 23 more walks, which would have boosted his OBP from .339 to .375. There is more in there in that sense. That would see his OPS crack .900 for the year, which is where we all picture The War Bear to be.

The concern with Schwarber, as it is with pretty much everyone now, is the lack of contact. Both his in-zone and overall contact rates were below league-average, and we know the Cubs would like to boost this where they can. I would think Schwarber’s overall production, especially in the second half, would outweigh that, but what do I know? And on breaking pitches, Schwarbs still has some swing-and-miss problems. That’s going to have to be the next step.

The other knock on Schwarber was his historic and mystifying incompetence in high-leverage situations last year. Well that certainly improved this year from -62 (my brain bleeds just seeing that number) to 92 in wRC+. Of course, even in his great second half, that number was just 81 in those spots. Perhaps that’s because pitchers, at least the ones able to execute a plan, know where to go with Schwarbs when they have to get him out. This is clearly the thing he’s going to have to correct come next year.

The funny thing with Schwarber is that even with his improved offensive numbers, he had a lesser WAR than ’18. That’s because his defense didn’t grade out as highly. And that’s because he didn’t really get the chance to throw out runners this year, as the book is out on his arm. Much like Willson Contreras, he contributed to his own sliding metrics on defense because of how good he was at one thing that he negated more chances to do that one thing. We know he’s not a great left fielder. Probably not even a good one. We also know a team doesn’t need to be great in left.

Contract: 2nd of three arbitration years, projected at $8M.

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: There are whispers about trading Schwarber to the AL every goddamn year. I’m sure this won’t be different. And it’s not that he’s untouchable. For a top of the rotation starter, you’d have to think long and hard about it. But that’s about it, at least to me. We got a half season of the hitter he can be, and was in 2015. So this isn’t like it came from nowhere. He’s an adjustment or two from being one of the most dangerous hitters in the league. And even with the arbitration more thandoubling his salary, he’s cheap and young. True, for the first time since 2015, he’ll actually have some real value. But other teams would be wary of a backslide. And if you move Schwarber you have to replace that production in left. There really isn’t an in-house candidate, other than Ian Happ who is a lot farther from being that hitter than Schwarber is. To do it from the outside would be expensive, even if it’s everyone’s darling Castellanos. And if the budget is selfishly and callously limited again, then what room there is has to find pitching first.

As with everything, it depends on return. But the chance the Cubs regret moving Schwarber along rather than enjoy what they got back seems a lot bigger than the reverse.

Baseball

We Know Your Nature – 2019 Cubs Player Reviews: Kris Bryant

By Sam Fels 1809 0

Folks, I’m gonna be honest with you. I fear the end of the World Series. And I fear it because the day after and every single day after that I’m going to wake up thinking, “Today is the day the Cubs are going to do something truly stupid.” And really, what I’m thinking of, at the top of the list at least, is that they’ll trade Kris Bryant. It would be just about the biggest mistake the Cubs could make, save Mookie Betts coming the other way and being signed long-term. Which won’t happen. You do a rebuild, and flog whatever you can for prospects and picks hoping that just one of those picks or prospects will turn into a Kris Bryant. You don’t keep doing that cycle. They don’t come around that often. You can’t just find another one because you want to. They are unicorns, which is possibly why Bryant sparkles in the way he does.

Was Bryant’s year the best? No. For the second year in a row he dealt with nagging injuries which hampered his production. Once again, he was forced to play through it because the rest of the team was too helpless to pull away or then even compete in the division. And the Cubs medical staff working its magic again. Is this the new normal? I doubt it, but I guess you can’t eliminate it. Anyway, let’s run it through.

2019 Stats

147 games  634 PA

.282/.382/.521

31 HR  77 RBI

11.7 BB%  22.9K%

135 wRC+  .379 wOBA  .903 OPS

-4.1 Defensive Runs Saved  4.8 WAR

Tell Me A Story: Well, first of all, 2019 was a huge improvement on 2018. Slugging up 60 points, wOBA up 20 points, 18 more homers. Also played 45 more games. But also for the second straight season, Bryant’s season did not measure up to his first three years in the league where he was Galactus, Eater Of Worlds. How much his knee problem played into that, we just don’t know for sure. But we can guess.

April was a bit rough for Bryant. He only hit .230, but had a high walk-rate and one of his lower K-rates. He was also undone by some fiendish BABIP kung-fu treachery, with a .263 mark. That would be by far the lowest mark of any month in the season. And that explains most of it, as Bryant was carrying a hard-contact rate of just about 40% in the season’s opening, and a line-drive rate over 20%. He was just unlucky.

We know that, because everything corrected over the next three months. In May, June, and July, Bryant ran wRC+ numbers of 193, 140, and 132, the kind of dominance and destruction you know and love from #17. He slugged .719, .480, and .547. This is what it’s supposed to look like.

And then it goes to shit in August, right about the time Bryant hurt his knee. A 95 wRC+. His walks basically disappeared to a 8.5% mark. His hard-contact rate dropped to 25%, and his line-drive rate was simply a sad and lonely (Secret Machines rule!) 12.7%. And yet he played through it. He shouldn’t have, but he did.

Now his September numbers look like they rebounded. But there’s a caveat there. His numbers in September are buffeted by simply going Donkey Kong on PCP and no one took the mallet away on the Pirates in that three-game series where it looked like things might actually come correct. He went 7-for-14, with three homers. After that, he had three hits against the Reds and Cardinals and then his season was over. The knee was still a problem.

There’s a lot of teeth-gnashing about Bryant’s contact numbers, because the team as a whole didn’t make enough contact. But the thing is that Bryant made the same exact amount of contact this year that he did in his MVP year. Had he not gotten hurt in August, and carried out his middle three months the final two, and ended up with 6.0 WAR or so, no one would give a shit about Bryant’s contact rates.

When looking at how Bryant did against certain pitches, most everything in 2019 is in line with what he did in his career before. There’s been basically no change except for health. So unless the Cubs know or heavily suspect that his body is never going to be quite right, he’s going to be an MVP candidate again very soon as long as something doesn’t go TWANG!

If there’s one area of concern other than his health, it’s his defense. It was negative again, though not as bad as the previous season. Still, Bryant was a plus 3rd basemen in his first three years, and one wonders if health was a part of his not being so again. There is a worry about a 6-5 dude playing third long-term. But Bryant isn’t much better in the outfield either, even though his athleticism keeps him from being anything like a disaster out there. Again, we won’t have an answer on this until he completes another full season healthy.

Contract: 3rd arbitration year of four, projected at $18.5M

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: Welcome back forever. Go to Scott Boras and hand Bryant $30-$35M a year until he’s 35 and don’t ask any questions. The idea that the Cubs “can’t” re-sign Bryant is simply ludicrous. Just hand him the most money, which he deserves. There are maybe four players you’d trade him for? Betts is one. Trout’s another. They’re not coming. Neither is Jose Altuve. I can’t stress this enough. Since he came into the league, the only more valuable players than Bryant–even with the injuries–are Trout and Betts. That’s it. You don’t let these players leave unless you’re insane or insanely greedy or both (and the Ricketts family is very likely both of those). He should be here until he retires, and then his jersey should immediately go up the left field foul pole. No waiting around. You simply don’t cut these guys adrift.

There is no way, none, where this team gets better without Bryant. At least not one that’s even a possibility. I’m fairly sure Theo knows this, but the question is can he sell that to the owners? That’s the only obstacle. Hold me to this, but if Bryant is ever allowed to leave, it’ll be at least twice as bad as when Greg Maddux was. I’ll wear it, and so will the rest of us if it happens.

Baseball

All The Boys In The Band Know How To Get Down – 2019 Sox Player Reviews: Leury Garcia

By Andy Jonathan 1345 0

Every team needs a Swiss Army Knife, the kind of player you can throw in any position at any point in the game and can hopefully expect league average production. Leury Garcia has been that knife for the White Sox for the past few seasons, let’s see how this one went.

 

2019 Stats

.279/.310/.378

3.4 BB% 22.5 K%

8 HR 43 RBI 90 R 15 SB

.294 wOBA 83 wRC+

Defensive Runs Saved +1 UZR +1.6

 

Tell Me A Story: If consistency is one of the most valuable traits for a baseball player in the major leagues, then Leury García is a human ATM machine. For the past three seasons with the White Sox, García has hit above .270, stolen at least 10 bases, and played defense at multiple positions (2B,3B, SS, LF, CF, RF) with at least replacement-level production. He’s also been worth 2.6 WAR for the past three years combined, which for an everyday player (which he wasn’t supposed to be) is just OK but for a super utility man is way more than acceptable.

Coming into the 2019 season García was expected to play around 100 games, spelling Anderson, Moncada and Yolmer during the week and then playing occasional OF as needed. It was a solid plan, and would have worked out perfectly. Unfortunately, it turned out that Jon Jay’s skeletal system was made of balsa wood and paper mache, and the center field position had collapsed on itself like a dying star, where no offensive light or slugging percentage was able to escape its ineptitude. Before the season had even started, the plan had already been shot to shit.

Previously the most games García had played in a season was the 87 he logged in 2017. With all the crap mentioned above combined with the fact that Anderson and Moncada both still needed days off AND they ended up missing time with lower body issues meant a whopping 58 game increase for him. Predictably, this resulted in a drop off of his production the last month of the season. Even then he was still league average, which is a pretty solid baseline for your utility guy.

Offensively (as shown by his stats above) García is not an OBP machine. His 3.4% walk rate pretty much confirms that. So if he’s on base, he’s gonna have to hit his way on. That’s not the type of profile you’d want for your leadoff hitter, but low and behold that’s where Renteria had him for a good portion of the season. This isn’t a knock on Renteria (though his lineup construction was sometimes on the level of performance art), as he was just playing the hand he was dealt. The Sox didn’t have a true leadoff hitter on their team, and García was quick on the base paths so he sort of fell into the roll. Ideally, you’d have Leury hitting in the 9-hole, rolling the batting order around with speed to the #1 guy, providing multiple RBI opportunities to your #2 and #3 hole hitters. Perhaps this is what we will see next season, providing he’s not flipped at the winter meetings in a few months or priced out of the White Sox “budget.”

Contract: García is eligible for arbitration this year, and should expect a modest raise from the $1.55 million he made in 2019. I would think his camp would ask for $3 million and the Sox will settle for about $2.6. He’s a free agent in 2021.

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: A lot will depend on how arbitration goes. If the number comes back in the upper $3 million range, the Sox may decide to cut bait and see what production they can get out of Danny Mendick or Ryan Goins spelling Tim and Yoan in the infield. With the team primed to fill some holes through free agency this winter, the need for García to play in the outfield should be much less, and I would expect Adam Engel to be there to fill in any needs as the team’s 4th outfielder.

The possibility for him to be at 2B full time exists if Nick Madrigal isn’t deemed ready for the big time and the Sox say goodbye to Yolmer Sanchez (which looks increasingly likely). In this instance, $3.5 million for a league average second baseman is a pretty good deal. Especially if you can move him back to the super utility role once Madrigal makes his debut later in the season.

Bottom line is as long as his price doesn’t get to exorbitant, or Rick Hahn somehow gets an offer he can’t refuse during the winter meetings I would expect Leury García to be back with the White Sox for the 2020 season.

Previous Player Reviews

James McCann

Welington Castillo

Zack Collins

Jose Abreu

Yolmer Sanchez

Tim Anderson

Yoan Moncada

Eloy Jimenez

 

 

Baseball

We Know Your Nature – 2019 Cubs Player Reviews: Javy Baez

By Sam Fels 1663 0

Ah, finally we get to have some fun like the Sox guys are. Other than Anthony Rizzo, the players we’ve looked at so far either had iffy or debatable seasons and/or might end up trade bait. Or they’re just irretrievable assholes. But Javier Baez is pure energy. He’s The Drej, but in a good way.

Where the fuck did I dig that reference up? Like maybe four of you saw “Titan A.E.” Whatever. Let’s move along.

2019 Stats

138 games  561 PA

.281/.318/.531

29 HR  89 RBI

5.0 BB%  27.8 K%

114 wRC+  .347 wOBA  .847 OPS

15.7 Defensive Runs Saved  4.4 WAR

Tell Me A Story: It might be hard to separate the decline, however small, of Baez’s ’19 from his ’18 from the pure exhaustion he assuredly felt. And that almost certainly would have had to contribute to his injury problems which basically had him out all of September. Sure, you don’t fracture your thumb because you’re tired as Baez did, but the dip from the first half to the second half was clear and his heel problem was at least partially due to overuse.

In the season’s first two months, Baez didn’t really drop from his MVP-consideration form of last year, putting up a 138 wRC+ in April and a 124 in May. But something went off the boil in June, and Baez didn’t really ever get back to the heights of the season’s first third. Part of it was that Baez simply stopped walking, which he had been doing within at least emailing distance of league average in the first two months. Now we know with Baez the walks are the outlier and the 2.0% rates of June and July are probably closer to what he is. But he doesn’t have to be.

Luck was also a part of it, as in June Baez only had a BABIP of .257 which is some 80 points off his career mark and season mark. That recovered in July and August, and Baez still slugged over .500 in those months, but it wasn’t as dominant as it had been before. Mostly because Baez just wasn’t getting on base as much, though when he was it almost always was for extra bases, and even those handful of walks he eschewed were making a difference. Baez isn’t ever going to be Adam Dunn or Anthony Rendon and he doesn’t have to be. But a walk-rate of 5-6% makes a huge difference to his overall OBP and offense, and that isn’t beyond him.

There was also a big difference in contact for Baez after the season’s first two months. Whereas in April and May he was hitting the ball as hard as just about anyone (43.4% and 51.6% hard-contact rates), he never got over 40% in the final three months he played. Part of this could have been playing every day slowing the bat a touch, part of it could have been the heel, part of it something else. 2018 saw him with a 22% line-drive rate, and we know what Baez should look like when on song. He had some pretty sad line-drive numbers in both June and August.

We know something must be wrong physically, because Baez’s average exit-velocity on fastballs went from 94.5 MPH in July to 85 MPH in August. That just shouldn’t happen. And it’s not like he was seeing more or less of them when August hit.

One thing pitchers did do was move their fastballs from high and tight to the outside, which would seem weird given that Baez has huge power the opposite way:

But Baez never really adjusted, sending less than 20% of his contact the other way which rocketed his ground-ball rate to 59% in August, by far his highest monthly mark of the year. This should never happen to Javy given the damage he can do to right field, but he gets pull-happy at times. In the season’s first two months, when over a third of his contact went to right field, you’ve seen the numbers. This is something Javy needs to lock in.

Contract: 2nd arbitration year, projected for $9.3M in 2020

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: Welcome him back and never let him go. The Cubs have made noises about at least talking about an extension with Baez this winter, and he seems to be the only lock of the team’s core that will never see another uniform. There are trade whispers about Bryant and Contreras, Rizzo will be in his 30s when his contract is up, and Schwarber also will hear the trade winds blow. But the Cubs wouldn’t dare do that with Baez, though they should probably feel the same way about Bryant. Another talk coming soon. What that number would be to get Baez to sign is open to question, but you’d have to guess it starts somewhere around $22M a year. Baez and close friend Francisco Lindor probably will have some interesting conversations about this. Hopefully they’re about both playing in Wrigley together one day.

What will be interesting is how Baez meshes with a new manager. Joe Maddon saw exactly what Baez could be and never really meddled, knowing it would be a bumpy road at times until this was unveiled. A lot of other managers might have tried to shackle or smooth out Baez’s game, which would have been a waste. He’s now at least close to the finished project, so the new manager doesn’t have many decisions to make. But could he resist? Can a new manager keep Baez at least aware of going the other way at the plate, which makes him basically a doomsday device?

The other thing is getting him backup. He can’t play 155 games next year or something stupid like that, even if he wants to. Nico Hoerner being able to stick early in the season solves this, but that’s no guarantee. Giving Bote a spot-start or two there is a solution that Maddon never wanted to try. If Russell’s evil and dumb ass is catapulted into the nearest tire fire, the Cubs might have to find a cheap solution outside the organization. If they don’t, we’ll know how much they think of Hoerner already.

Either way, Engine #9 is most likely going to be thrilling you for a very long time. Keep him fresh and healthy to make sure that happens.

Previous Cubs Player Reviews

Ian Happ

Barf Bag

Ben Zobrist

David Bote

Anthony Rizzo

Victor Caratini 

Willson Contreras

 

Baseball

All The Boys In The Band Know How To Get Down – 2019 Sox Player Reviews: Eloy Jimenez

By Adam Hess 1473 0

We continue on our adventure through the White Sox’ exclusive group of players that will actually matter in the future, this time bringing us to Eloy Jimenez and his beautiful smile. Let’s just get to it because I am excited.

2019 Stats

.267/.315/.513

Vs LHP .259 Vs RHP .270

6.0 BB% 26.6 K%

31 HR 79 RBI 69 R

.343 wOBA 117 wRC+ 1.9 fWAR

Defensive Runs Saved -11 UZR -5.1

Tell Me A Story: The White Sox played hardball with Eloy Jimenez and the service time game in 2018, leaving him in AAA even after it was obvious in May of that year, when he was in AA, that he was MLB ready. The Sox even went far enough to burn an option year (not that they will be important) by sending him down to AAA camp a few weeks before opening day. That remains a curious move to me, because they were obviously negotiating a contract extension with him at the time, so it was unnecessary. Even if he hadn’t signed that deal, they could’ve sent him down at the last second. The option won’t matter, but it was still weird.

Regardless, Eloy signed and was in the opening day lineup, deservedly. He spent most of the early season hitting in the 5-spot, and kinda bounced around between there and the 6-spot most of the season. Near the end of the year, as he really came on (more on that in a moment), he started to hit cleanup more consistently, but he only even hit higher than that twice in his 122 games, hitting second once in late May and third once in early September. He also hit seventh a handful of times, but we will pretend that didn’t happen because realistically it never will again.

Moving toward the actual on-field performance, let’s start with the bad. That’s because there isn’t much so we can get through it quickly. The defense needs work. We knew it would be an issue, but we didn’t necessarily know it would be as big of an issue as it turned out to be. There were some slight improvements if you squint hard enough, but not enough to overshadow the fact that he injured himself on an ugly defensive play – TWICE. Reports indicate he works hard with the coaching staff to improve his defense, but this may always be an issue. Still, it’s far too early to give up on Eloy as a fielder, because you’re gonna need him to be able to play out there. It’s far too soon to seriously consider a full-time shift to DH. He’s only 22, after all.

Eloy got off to a slow start, and that could be putting it quite generously. Through May, he was hitting .220/.273/.390 with a wRC+ of 75, while striking out 29.5% of the time. He also had just 6 homers in that time. I didn’t go dig up the numbers, but I remember that in those first two months pitchers were taking advantage of his aggressiveness and just eating him alive with hard sliders low and away that he just couldn’t lay off. Eloy was far too good of a hitter to ever be challenged by minor league pitching, so seeing that happen early on was slightly surprising, though not necessarily discouraging. The talent and power were still there, he just couldn’t force pitchers to throw him fastballs yet.

After those first two months, things looked up for Eloy. From June 1 to July 31, he slashed .244/.313/.527 for a 117 wRC+. The K-rate was still in excess of 27% but he was walking more and hitting the ball a lot harder, improving his hard-hit percentage from ~26% through May to 40.1% in June and July. He also hit 11 of his 31 dingers in those months.

August and September were where he really shined, though. Truthfully, the real Eloy Jimenez stood up in the final third of the season, and he smashed his way to a .308/.342/.575 line with a wRC+ of 140. His hard-hit rate climbed to a mean 42.1%, and he had an identical medium-hit rate, meaning he was making paltry contact less than a fifth of the time, a huge improvement from the early aughts where it was more than a quarter of the time. And it showed up in the stat line, as he smashed 14 of big flies in these months, which is damn near half.

In total, after the first two months of the season, Eloy hit .284/.331/.557 with a wRC+ of 131. That is, as they say very fucking good, and pretty much in line with what a lot of people expected from him. When we did our season preview roundtable for the Sox, I said I was expecting a .270 season with 30+ dingers, and I was pretty much spot on. All in all, Eloy showed every bit the promise we were dreaming his bat could have.

And oh yeah, he did this at Wrigley.

Contract: Signed through 2024 on a 6-year, $43-million contract that includes team options for 2025 and 2026. Those options reportedly push the total value of the deal close to $80-million.

Welcome Back or Boot In The Ass: Another easy keeper here. Eloy should be hitting third or fourth in this lineup on opening day for the next seven years at least, and hopefully more. Rick Hahn mentioned right field as a need area this offseason, and the Sox have been heavily linked to J.D. Martinez rumors so far (make of that what you will), so it’s safe to say they don’t view his defense as a problem and are writing him into the roster as the starting left fielder as well.

Baseball

We Know Your Nature – 2019 Cubs Player Reviews: Ian Happ

By Sam Fels 1462 0

I don’t think there’s a player I’m more confounded by than Ian Happ. And that’s because one week I’ll feel like he’s not getting a real chance, and then the next week I’ll think he’s never going to be anything, and then the one after that I’ll be in the middle before starting the whole cycle over again. It’s dizzying. See if we can’t make sense of it today with some separation from the season.

2019 Stats

58 gams, 156 PA

.264/.333/.564

9.6 BB%  25.0 K% 

11 HR  25 RBI

127 wRC+  .368 wOBA  .898 OPS

2.9 Defensive Runs Saved  1.5 WAR

Tell Me A Story: And that’s the thing. Look at those numbers for a third of a season. They’re really good. Like, really good. Even the defense! And yet didn’t you spend at least a portion of Happ’s time in Chicago this year thinking, “It’s never going to happen for this guy. Yet another 1st round miss! SAD!”  Of course you did. We all did. And yet there it is in black and white. He didn’t miss. So just what the fuck is going on here?

With Happ you almost have to go week-to-week or even game-by-game this year to try and get a handle on it. He was called up in late July, got five straight starts though only got two hits in them. But he did walk a ton in those. He then wouldn’t get a start for another week (huh?), earning them after doing some really nice work off the bench (a theme that would continue for the rest of the season). He would get a start the next six games, and in those he pretty much mashed, going 8-for-21 with three homers and only a few strikeouts. Happ started the next three games, only getting one hit, and then only get a start in three of the next eight. It was at this point that Anthony Rizzo got hurt the first time, and Happ would essentially get three straight starts at first, including the sweep of the Mets where he homered of Syndergaard.

It’s in the next stretch where Happ went cold, which seems to have defined his season at least in Maddon’s mind and probably mine. Happ would go 11-for-51 over the next couple weeks, starting either every other game at first and then every third and then none at all. And then of course Happ lit up the Pirates and Cardinals in the last week to give his numbers something of a shine. The games didn’t matter to the Cubs, but they did matter to the Cardinals, and it was only two games, so what the fuck do we make of it? If anything I’m more confused than I was. No one said it would be easy.

What we can say is that Happ had a rough couple weeks in there, which happens to everyone, and had it come earlier in the season or the Cubs with a comfortable lead in the division (and watching the Cardinals in the playoffs it’s even more galling that the Cubs somehow boned this so hard), Joe Maddon probably would just have let Happ play out of it. But given the urgency and time, he couldn’t. Or wouldn’t. I’m not sure. Neither are you. We’re sinking deeper and deeper here.

What we can say is that Happ did cut down his strikeouts this year, from being well over a third of the time to a quarter. That’s still not great, but you can live with it. And frankly in just these 58 games, he put up the same WAR he did in all of 2018 and nearly the same amount as 2017 which the Cubs are basing so much emotion on in the first place.

And while the Cubs harf-harf-harf about more contact, here they have a player who did make more contact. Happ raised his contact% from 77% in ’17 and 70% in ’18 to 82% in his cameo this year. That’s just a tick below league average, which for the Cubs is a goddamn bonanza. Is that real or just a splurge in limited playing time? No one knows, and our picture remains muddied and our lives unclear and the answers farther away. Eat Arby’s.

On the downside, Happ saw a major drop in the amount of line-drives he hit this time around, to about 15%. And an increase in grounders, which isn’t good. His exit-velocity dipped a touch as well. But again, given the sample size, it’s hard to know if this is a trend or just a spike or something in between. All we have is fog.

The book on Happ was that you could simply blow fastballs up in the zone by him all day, and he would murder you on low pitches. The latter still stayed basically the same, as Happ slugged .709 against sinkers this year. The real improvement for Happ came on breaking pitches. Where in the previous two years, he had only managed a .181 average on sliders and .225 on curves, those numbers this year were .529 and .421. He wasn’t cheating to the fastball and getting left out to dry and out ahead by anything.

Were high fastballs still a problem? Yes, of course. But Happ did show improvement in getting to them as a left-handed hitter in the middle or inside. Still not great, but moving in the right direction.

Perhaps the real upset here is that Happ graded out really well with the glove at second and in center. We think of him as a butcher in center, and the very few times they planted him between Castellanos and Schwarber we were pretty much watching with a book on our head. But the numbers suggest he was pretty good out there, with very positive UZR and UZR-150 numbers. I’m just telling you what they say.

Picture is not so clear now, is it?

Contract: Team Control, Arb Eligible in 2021

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: When the season ended, Happ was probably a poster boy for a lot (and maybe even some in the front office) that think he’s the type of hitter the Cubs need to get away from. But that’s just not the case, or it wasn’t in 2019. Now, does that mean he should automatically be back? Not exactly. Given that he’s under team control, his pure athleticism that can have him deployed all over the diamond, the power that we know is there, and the at least somewhat encouraging signs of his abbreviated season in the Bigs, he might have some trade value and could help the Cubs get an arm they need.

That said, with the Cubs priorities having to be pitching and really pitching alone given what’s out there and what we think their budget constraints might be, and given that Happ makes pretty much nothing, he’s also extremely valuable to the Cubs. Or could be. At worst, he could start the season flipping with David Bote at second to keep the seat warm for Nico Hoerner while also getting starts in center. Again, he might be really improving out there. There are basically no center fielders to be gotten in free agency, unless you want to roll the dice on Brett Gardner‘s career-year, and you probably shouldn’t. Whatever trades the Cubs are going to make pretty much have to be for pitching. And if Happ stubs his toe again and the team needs someone in center, they’re more likely to find it at the deadline than in free agency.

Happ only just turned 25, which means he’s just about to enter his prime or just has. Yeah, the pitfalls there and his career feels like it’s careening along a mountain road with no guardrails. It could end with a beautiful view…or it could have a date with some very jagged rocks at very high speeds.

To me, Happ does too much–or has the potential to do too much–to not take one more look in 2020. There may be more answers here than we first thought.

Baseball

All The Boys In The Band Know How To Get Down – 2019 Sox Player Reviews: Yoan Moncada

By Andy Jonathan 1815 0

Now we come to another key member of The Future™ who had himself a breakout year, Yoan Moncada. Not only did he bust out at the plate (ending up the 4th best hitter in the AL behind Timmy, DJ LeMahieu and Michael Brantley) but also in the field, transitioning pretty seamlessly from the cornerstone position to the hot corner. Let’s dig in, shall we?

 

2019 Stats

.315/.367/.548

Vs LHP .299 Vs RHP .322

7.2 BB% 27.5 K%

25 HR 79 RBI 81 R

.379 wOBA 141 wRC+ 5.7 WAR

Defensive Runs Saved -6 UZR +4.3

 

Tell Me A Story: Questions, questions, questions. Coming into the 2019 season, all Moncada had around him were questions.  In 2018 he slashed .235/.315/.714 and lead the AL in strikeouts which lead to question after question about whether or not Moncada should abandon switch hitting, about his aggressiveness at the plate and whether or not he took too many called 3rd strikes, all the way to his preparation level for his defensive play. There were even a few members of Sox Twitter (depression level: Joker) who had doubts about his hustle level during the season.

Moncada apparently heard all of these questions himself, as in the off-season he headed to Arizona to work with hitting coach Todd Steverson for the Long Dark of winter. During those months, he spent a considerable amount of time on his swing mechanics and working on being more aggressive at the plate. In addition to that, in the middle of his off-season workouts he found out from Ricks Hahn and Renteria that the Sox were going to move him back to 3rd base, which was his original position when he was drafted out of Cuba by the Red Sox. That’s a lot to deal with for someone who was admittedly struggling under the pressure of being ranked the best prospect in baseball and being the cornerstone of a trade involving a potential hall of fame pitcher.

The work he put in during the winter was immediately shown off during Cactus League play in March where he posted a 1.110 OPS and clocked a few dingers. Most importantly he looked far more comfortable hitting from the right side of the plate, where quite a few times he looked lost in 2018. The hot spring training carried right over to the regular season where he hit .301 in April and knocked out 6 of his eventual 25 home runs.

His effectiveness from both sides of the plate was worth noting, as he was able to up his average hitting right handed from .209 in 2018 all the way to .299 this year. The strikeouts dropped precipitously as well, going from a league high 217 last year down to a far more respectable 153 this season. His walk rate dropped, but that’s something you would expect from a player actively working on being more aggressive at the plate. Really the only thing missing in Yoan’s offensive game is power from the right side of the plate, which you can see below in his slugging heat charts.

               

 

Defensively, Moncada improved as well moving from 2B to 3rd pretty easily. His DRS score may not show it with an ugly -6 but looking at his Ultimate Zone Rating for his play at 3rd base and it’s positive for the first time ever in his career. Fangraphs also had him as the 4th best overall 3B in the whole league, based on qualifying time. So while DRS is a solid stat, sometimes it does not tell the entire story defensively for a player. His errors also dropped from 29 last season down to 15 for this year. Not too shabby for one off-season of hard work, which should hopefully put to rest the talk of his lack of preparation and hustle.

Moncada did miss some time at the beginning of August with a hamstring strain, and a few games after getting drilled on the knee with a Chris Sale slider the same game where the Sox lost Tim Anderson to the shitty field conditions at Fenway. Overall however, he was able to stay on the field pretty consistently which is what you would hope for your hot corner.

Contract: Under team control through 2020 making $550,000, Arbitration begins in 2021, free agency in 2024. I would expect the Sox to try and buy him out of those arbitration years in a deal similar (but more expensive) to what Tim Anderson and Eloy Jimenez got.

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: Once again, just like Timmy there’s no question that Moncada comes back as perhaps the most important member of The Future™ club. Questions going into next season are all predicated on what Rick Hahn has planned for free agency. While I don’t expect Moncada to be moved in the field again as he’s settled in nicely at 3rd, I wouldn’t completely rule it out should the team make a surprise run at Anthony Rendon should he not re-sign in DC. Other than that, it’s a question of where he hits in the lineup and who is on base for him to drive in. Sky is the limit for Yoan here on out, and it’s gonna be awesome to watch him become the superstar he was advertised to be back when the Sale trade was made. The Red Sox may have won the battle, but I think the White Sox win the war.

 

 

 

Baseball

All The Boys In The Band Know How To Get Down – 2019 Sox Player Reviews: Tim F’n Anderson

By Andy Jonathan 1540 0

Here he is, ladies and gentlemen: Your 2019 American League Batting Champion and Gold Medal Winning Bat Flipper……

TIM ANDERSON

/PYRO GOES OFF

/CROWD GOES BALLISTIC

/NED YOST SPONTANEOUSLY COMBUSTS

 

 

2019 Stats

.335/.357/.508

2.9 BB% 21.0 K%

18 HR 56 RBI 86 R

.363 wOBA 130 wRC+ 3.5 WAR

Defensive Runs Saved -9

 

 

Tell Me A Story: In a season where Rick Hahn really needed some pieces of The Future™ to break out and give the rebuild a nice new glossy shine, Tim Anderson stepped up and not only gave Hahn a success story (along with Yoan and a few others), but the White Sox organization a face and an attitude they can market the living shit out of if they do it right. This season can be classified as nothing but a giant plus for Tim Anderson and the team, and while there are a few questions going forward, it’s nice to finally have something to energize the fan base and get people excited about the product on the field again.

Looking at Anderson’s stats this season there are a few things that immediately leap out at you, the first of which is obviously his AL leading batting average and his .508 slugging percentage. The .357 OBP tells you the thing that we’ve known all along as Sox fans, mainly that Tim Anderson is not up there looking to take a walk. His 21% K rate is league average however, which means that he’s able more often than not to put the ball in play. So the big question is how was Tim able to boost his batting average by almost .095 this season? His .399 BABIP suggests a good chunk of those gains were of the batted ball luck variety. Looking at his contact rates shows everything pretty close to his career averages especially in terms of his hard hit rating (32.2%) and his line drive percentages (23.8%). Even looking at his batting average chart shows a player that has very little preference as to where the pitch is. If Tim thinks he can get to it (he does), then he’s going to swing at it.

So a fair chunk of Anderson’s offensive increases this season had something to do with batted ball luck, which is fine. This is the 2nd year of his 4 year career where he’s had a BABIP over .350. The first was his rookie year where his BABIP was .375 which is pretty high. Despite that he still hit .280, so BABIP in and of itself is not the only explanation for his high average. In reality, if his BABIP regresses next season to around .320 (which is statistically likely) you could expect Anderson to hit around .280-.285ish next season. I don’t know of anyone out there who wouldn’t take that from your likely #6 hitter next season, especially if the power numbers stay the same. Again, his slugging percentage was about .100 above his career average and I don’t think anyone expects that to stay the same but .450 would be more than acceptable for that spot in the lineup.

Defensively Tim had a pretty rough year, as the -9 DRS score is the worst of his career. In fact, he’s been negative twice for DRS out of the 4 years he’s played as in 2017 he was a -8. The other two years he was 0 and +6 giving him an average of -2.75 DRS per year. If you add in all of the other advanced fielding metrics like UZR and total errors, Tim grades out to be the worst shortstop defensively since 2017. The question then becomes one that is going to be repeated for the Sox in the search for a right fielder. Are you willing to sacrifice defense for offensive ability? Can Tim Anderson improve enough at SS to creep into the middle defensive tier where it’s a little more acceptable? The talent and ability to play solid D is definitely there, as he proved his rookie year when he was 15th out of 30 defensively in the league. He also has some of the better range and arm strength around. It’s a tough question, and one that Rick Hahn is going to have to answer before he hits the shopping market this off-season.

In addition to all the stats stuff, Tim Anderson is just a fun player to watch. Bat flips aside, he clearly has a ton of fun playing the game. He’s also extremely active in the community, and as a prominent African American playing baseball on the South Side of Chicago, that’s something that cannot be measured. His organization League of Leaders was founded in 2017 after a friend of Tim’s was shot and killed trying to help someone who was being beaten in an attack. In addition to that work, Tim donated $500 to the Anti-Violence network for every stolen base he had this past season. Jose Abreu may be the de facto leader in the clubhouse, but if you combine Tim’s charity work with the passion he shows on the field there’s no doubt the Sox have someone on their hands who can attract a younger, more diverse crowd to their product.

Contract: Signed through 2022 at $4.15 million with team options in 2023 and 24

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: It’s not even a question, as a founding member of The Future™ and a member of the MLB “Let The Kids Play Until We Don’t Want Them Playing So Hard Because It Makes Old People Mad” group, Tim Anderson isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. That being said, there are a few questions this off-season that are going to need to be answered.

1. Is shortstop the ultimate position for Tim Anderson?

2. How much regression is coming for his hitting?

3. Will the new Royals manager hate Tim as much as Ned Yost?

The answer to the first one (in my opinion) is yes. With the impending arrival of Luis Robert and the expected signing of a right fielder in the off-season combined with the fact that you don’t really have a replacement for Tim at short makes me think the Sox are going to be willing to deal with the defensive shortcomings for the foreseeable future.

As to the regression question, I personally would expect something along the lines of .285/305/.790 for Tim next year, using my tried and true mathematical method of pulling numbers freely out of my ass. Anything more than that and you have to start moving his comps up to the Xander Bogaerts level, which I’m completely fine with. Anything less than that would not agree with my model, and therefore is considered an outlier to be disregarded.

As for question number 3, that’s going to be a hard yes forever and ever.

Fuck the Royals.