Sam, Slak, and I discuss the call up of Kirby Dach and how he’s looked so far, and how to jump start what’s been a fairly sub par offense to this point. Always free, always after the jump.
And now the big debate. It’s actually a couple rolled into one. Is Nicholas Castellanos the player he showed for the two months he was a Cub? Is he what came before that? Is he what the final numbers on 2019 with both Detroit and Chicago say? Somewhere in-between? And then you add to those questions whether he should be re-signed or not. It’s a lot to figure out, and that’s before getting into the Cubs’ figment budget questions that they’ve made real.
2019 Stats (DET & CHI)
151 games 664 PAs
.289/.337/.525
27 HR 73 RBI
6.2 BB% 21.5 K%
121 wRC+ .357 wOBA .883 OPS
-12.6 Defensive Runs Saved 2.8 WAR
Tell Me A Story: You could say that Castellanos was THE story for the Cubs last year, at least on the positive side. He came in at the trade deadline and immediately started hitting, and never really stopped. He inarguably brought a jolt to the Cubs, and they were a team that definitely could have used it. Castellanos was certainly more explosive than either Almora or whoever else he actually replaced in the lineup by pushing Heyward to center.
If you were to only look at his numbers with the Cubs in the last two months, he looks like an MVP candidate. .321/.356/.646 for an OPS of 1.002 and an OPS+ of 151. As Castellanos himself pointed out, the more friendly environs of Wrigley made a difference in his home run production, as he hit 16 in the season’s final two months after hitting only 11 in the first four in Detroit. And half of them came at home, so over a full season that projects out to over 40 homers and near 50 for a season. Of course, Castellanos isn’t going to ever match the 32% HR/FB rate he had in August as a Cub. But even the 14% he had in September was higher than anything he did in Detroit last season, and above his career rate.
What Castellanos did do, regardless of where he was playing, is hit the ball damn hard. He had a hard-contact rate over 40% every month of the season, which the Cubs simply don’t have a lot of. Only he and Schwarber eclipsed that mark for the whole year. For comparison’s sake, the Dodgers had nine guys who did. The Astros seven. Maybe the problem isn’t the amount of contact, fellas?
And that’s just about the story with Nic At Nite. There wasn’t that much of a change from the Tigers to the Cubs. He mashed fastballs and sinkers there, and he did so here, and with a slice more luck and a smaller park, the numbers swelled. He’s a good hitter who got hot and he will almost certainly remain a good hitter.
A key aspect to the Castellanos debate is his defense. It was better in ’19 than it was in ’18, and there isn’t nearly as much ground to cover in Wrigley as there is in Comerica, even if you have to deal with the sun and wind and Ryker from Highland Park throwing beers at you. But it still wasn’t good, The optimistic will tell you it was only his second season playing there and the improvement from ’18 to ’19 will only continue. The pessimistic will tell you he looks awkward as fuck out there, his routes are Dali-esque, has next to no range, and he just doesn’t have a feel for it out there and probably belongs in left. Which probably means the truth is somewhere in the middle as always.
Contract: Free Agent
Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: Oh if it were only so simple. Yes, with no budget constraints-perceived or real or self-imposed or necessary–you’d re-sign Castellanos and have him and Schwarber in the corners to mash and you’d find a better solution in center to cover for their defense and maybe provide some offense and consign Heyward to the 4th outfielder role he’s been hurtling toward for four seasons. But life isn’t that simple.
These days, it’s impossible to know what Castellanos can make on the free agent market. A couple years ago, you’d be sure it was over $20M a year for five years at least. Now three years for between $51M-$54M seems the more likely, and even then who knows what the collusion owners will dictate.
But even at that $17M figure, it’s a tough squeeze for the Cubs. Even with just their arbitration raises as projected, the Cubs end up near $180M in payroll. And that’s if they don’t get to extend anyone with a bigger figure. And it could be more than that. That might leave somewhere between $35M-$40M to play with. But if you and Castellanos half of that, is $17M-$20M enough to get the extra starter and bullpen arm or two the Cubs need more desperately? It could be but would be a tight squeeze.
On the other side, having Castellanos on the team most certainly can’t hurt and if he’s anything close to the August-September guy, $17M is a bargain. If a third season sees his defense improve…maybe you can get away with it? Can you live with Heyward for a full season in center? Doubtful. Would you trade Schwarber? That’s production you’d have to find again and probably pay premium, either through money or trade, to do so. Isn’t that running in place?
On the plus side here, I don’t think there are any wrong answers. You can sign Castellanos and just say you’re going to bash the shit out of the ball and hope that’s enough to outrun your at-best subpar outfield defense. Or you can let him walk, use that money for the pitching you don’t have, and mitigate not having that offensive production. And maybe with a smart trade you can get some of it back anyway.
Looking at it though, Castellanos hits the ball awfully hard. The Cubs don’t. They’ll have to answer that somehow.
As AJ said yesterday, the hopeful and wandering eyes (ewww) of Sox fans are going to turn from Lucas Gioilito to Reynaldo Lopez next year. Is Lopez a candidate for such a turnaround? Let’s get in up to the wrist.
2019 Stats
33 starts 184 innings
10-15
5.38 ERA 5.04 FIP
8.27 K/9 3.18 BB/9 1.46 WHIP
35% GB-rate 69.2 LOB% 14.0% HR/FB
119 ERA- 2.3 WAR
Tell Me A Story: It was something of a strange year for Lopez, as in a lot of ways he had the same exact year as he did in 2018. And in some ways better, except without any of the results or numbers that would agree with that. He struck out slightly more hitters than he did in ’18, he walked slightly less hitters. He got ever so slightly more ground-balls, and considering what the baseball was his hard-contact against was essentially the same. And yet his ERA jumped nearly a run and a half and his FIP almost half a run. What’s going on here?
Some of this is luck. Lopez gave up more homers simply because more of them floated out of the park, which happened to just about everyone this season (at least not named Gerrit Cole). Whereas his fly ball-to-homer ratio previously was under 10%, it rose to over 14% this year. But Lopez didn’t give up hardly any more flies than he did previously, nor was the contact on them any more lively than before. They just ended up in places in various parks that were homers where they didn’t before, which is essentially just kind of random. Lopez wasn’t helped either by a dip in his left-on-base percentage, which is just sequencing. His 69% mark is three to four points below league average, and could just rebound simply because next year. More solo homers instead of them with men on would improve his ERA and such, without him actually doing anything differently.
Still, that’s not all of it. Lopez’s stuff suggests he should strike out more hitters than less than one per inning. And yet he doesn’t. Lopez’s fastball velocity ranked in the top-10 of all starters this year. The guy behind him was Max Scherzer. The guys ahead of him were Marquez, Alcantara, Castillo, Buehler, Wheeler, deGrom, Cole, and Thor. Almost everyone of them have much bigger K numbers than Lopez, and if not that than better success. Why so?
The easy answer is that they have better offspeed and breaking pitches, but that’s only partially true. The thing with Lopez’s fastball is though it’s one of the hardest around, it doesn’t get the whiffs you might think:
With Lopez’s velocity, you want him living at the top and above the zone. But all the other pitchers mentioned get whiff-per-swing rates in those six spots in the 30% range or 40%. Some even 50%, which Lopez has only in one spot and is probably more due to a weird spike than any skill. Maybe hitters just see Lopez’s fastball better than those others’. Maybe he needs some more deception in his delivery, but considering he’s throwing 95-97 regularly he should be blowing that pitch by hitters more often. And he’s not. And that’s a bigger problem because it’s still the pitch he goes to most often when ahead and with two strikes.
Lopez has good breaking stuff, but they don’t seem to come out of the same plane as his fastball. He mostly keeps his fastball up int he zone or above, but his slider breaks from the middle or low in the zone and out. Hitters can pretty much suss out when it’s not up it’s not a fastball, though they still offer and whiff at a decent amount of them. Though hardly a heroic amount. When pitching to lefties, his change still comes out of a lower plane as well. Perhaps using his curve more, which does come out of his hand looking higher in the zone, is the key. Or given how hard he throws, not being afraid to use the middle of the zone more often on the edges, and then the slider and change will look a little different. Clearly the tools are there.
Contract: Team control, arbitration eligible in 2021.
Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: Well this is obvious. Lopez will be part of the rotation next year and hopefully for a good long while after that. And seeing as how he’s put up over 180 innings his first two full seasons, his durability will be needed in a season where the Sox don’t know what they’ll get from Carlos Rodon or Michael Kopech in terms of innings. He’s clearly the next project in the Giolito mold, how they can unlock what is clearly a lot in that closet. Feels like a delivery tweak is coming for him too to give him more deception and to make sure that fastball gets on hitters instead of them seeing it the whole way. Lopez will be 26 next year, so there’s still time but there isn’t the oodles of time it might feel like. If they can boost him as they did Giolito next year, then the games might matter in August again.
Not that I think Connor Murphy‘s injury will turn out to be a Wally Pip moment, because nothing really ever is. But it does open a window for the Hawks to try and get started on their future. And their future wears #27, at least on the blue line.
I’m sure the Hawks won’t call up Adam Boqvist to take Murphy’s spot. They’ll call up Dennis Gilbert because he’s the loyal foot soldier, and they can play him 12 minutes a night without scrutiny to not do a hell of a lot on the third pairing for three weeks. We’ll get more of Fetch Koekkoek, because he’s the new Rundbland and Stan is going to prove he knows what he’s doing no matter how much closer it brings us to the first instance in history of a goalie breaking his stick over his own d-man’s head on the ice. I know this, you know this.
But last night, as encouraging as it was at times, once again showed the speed deficit the Hawks have when it comes to the best teams in the league. If they red-line and play as if their pubic hair was on fire, they can almost keep up. But you can’t do that for 82 games. You can’t play that hard and that desperate, because you’ll be puddles and goo by February. You need more baseline speed.
And that’s what Boqvist is. And the defense, as strange as it might sound, could absorb him right now. Whatever they do, the clear answer is to move Calvin de Haan up to play with Duncan Keith, as de Haan can mostly emulate the safety net Murphy provides (though without most of the mobility). At the moment, that leaves Seabrook and Maatta together, which is still getting crushed even if Maatta has been better than we thought, and Gustafsson and Fetch for shifts that will have all of us walking funny and carefully to the bathroom.
Maatta and de Haan have definitely stabilized a defense that really had no other direction to go, as well as the Murphy-Keith pairing you just lost. But all it is is just defending. The Hawks don’t get up the ice any better than they did. They still need help with that. The only candidate for that is Boqvist. They need transition.
Pair him with Maatta. Let Seabrook and Gustafsson be on the third pairing, which as ugly as it might sound is better than the alternative. Maatta’s form this season at least allows for the possibility that he can be the free safety for Boqvist’s flaming guitar solos (there’s some mixed metaphors for you). It’s what the Hawks need.
We know thanks to DeBrincat’s bridge contract that the Hawks have basically zeroed in on the next three-four seasons–the length of Daydream Nation’s collective contract. Boqvist’s is already running. No waiting around. Let’s go.
-Which also means keeping Kirby Dach around. Does that mean he’s ready? No, it doesn’t. But I also don’t need too much more than the two games we’ve seen to know that he’s beyond the WHL too. And seeing as how Rockford isn’t an option…
One thing Dach is going to have to do better is get his legs pumping. NHL forwards basically spring for their entire shifts, and so far Dach has gotten caught gliding a little too often. That doesn’t mean he’s a loaf, as it’s probably more to do with him calculating what’s going on around him and then reacting instead of those two things folding seamlessly into each other, which they will. He’s going to have to map things out while moving full speed.
Dach being a bigger guy, it’s always going to look like he’s playing at a slightly slower speed because he’ll cover ground that much easier. His style is just going to look languid even if it’s not. I don’t need his legs to look like Road Runner, but they do need to move a touch more.
Still, the hands and vision and instincts are obvious. And if the Hawks are patient, I can’t see how after 30-40 games he won’t look like he belongs. And 30 games in the NHL have to be more valuable than 60 games in the WHL beating up on children because he’s that much more talented. That won’t really get him to move at higher speeds. So keep him here and get moving on these next three seasons. Let’s go.
Are you tired of reading these pieces from me yet? Because I’m awfully sick of writing them. In the past two years I’ve addressed the whitewashing of sexual assault, mansplaining (which for some reason has Sam as the author?? Very meta), and gender-based discrimination and the wage gap. Each of these situations were bad in their own way by highlighting persistent misogyny and distinct cultural issues that we still have in the country (and world), but this Brandon Taubman story really ticks all the boxes—workplace discrimination and undermining women’s basic competency at doing their jobs, the policy of valuing success over human decency, and minimizing the scourge of domestic violence. How could one asshole manage to do so much? Let’s examine:
The Art of the Non-Apology
See, that’s because it’s not just one asshole. Yes, this brouhaha was initially caused by the actions of one asshole, but it was a group of equally obnoxious ones that showed how odious this episode really is. You’ve got Taubman screaming weird, uncomfortable nonsense directly at women, clearly meaning to intimidate them or make them feel awkward. That’s bad enough on its own, but for the Astros to declare the story was “misleading and completely irresponsible” is, well, misleading and completely irresponsible. Dismissing the reporter out of hand and acting like Taubman was giving interviews when in fact he was spouting off because he wanted to is idiotic in the internet age when others can so quickly corroborate, but the subtext here is also, women are emotional, they’re too sensitive, her account isn’t trustworthy.
Once it finally became clear to these morons that doubling down on lies wasn’t going to work, they went with the phony contrition in the perfect non-apology: owner Jim Crane talked about money and Taubman gave the “I’m sorry you were offended” excuse. First of all, pointing to your wallet when you just hired and paid an abuser is not really a good look, and second of all, nowhere did Crane or Taubman acknowledge that Stephanie Apstein was accurate in her reporting (ya know, doing her job).
Apologizing to her for knocking her journalism might have made a little more sense. Especially since Taubman also used this opportunity to trot out the oldest and lamest excuse of them all: I’m a “loving and committed husband and father.” Listen, literally every male on this planet was birthed by a female of the species. Every single person here has a connection to a woman in the most primal of ways, so saying you’re a good guy because you know one doesn’t work. More importantly, even if you were an alien or had sprung fully formed from your father’s head like a fucking modern-day Athena, you should STILL respect women because THEY ARE PEOPLE THE SAME AS MEN ARE. This tired-ass excuse is just admitting, “I respect women because I’m putting my dick in one.” Try again, dumbshit.
At All Costs
Turning a blind eye to violence against women if it gives your team a chance to win is nothing unique to the Astros. They just really went all out in proclaiming it. Which is funny because Osuna blew the damn save so in addition to being boorish this Taubman is also just plain stupid. But we’ve seen it with Aroldis Chapman, we’ve seen it with Addison Russell, and those are just two that made headlines in these parts. It’s happened in the NFL and undoubtedly in every league more times than you can imagine. Hell, Bobby Hull is still celebrated here and he’s a monster.
And this latest situation won’t change that. Taubman and the Astros look like jerks but it’ll pass, people will forget, and front offices will continue to sign and pay men who abuse women because those men are talented athletes. If the Astros lose this series, or perhaps if Osuna himself really shits the bed, he himself will be out of a job, but there is no agreement among owners to shut these players out in the way that NFL owners blacklisted Colin Kaepernick. We know it can be done since we’ve seen them effectively freeze him out of the league, but until that dedication is turned against abusers, there will only be more stories like this, both in terms of people scratching their heads saying why is this abusive piece of shit on [fill in the blank team], and in terms of cowards like Taubman using the threat of superiority and control to intimidate women in moments when they don’t think anyone can stop them.
Same As It Ever Was
And that’s really the issue—that domestic violence is still explained away as a personal matter or a private issue, anything other than the devastating crime that it is. That’s why the Astros initially tried the smear campaign. Doing so twisted the issue of defending the indefensible to questioning whether a reporter was accurate. Accuracy is much less fraught than the former scenario and it takes the spotlight away from the fact that the team doesn’t really care if he kicked the shit out of his partner.
The worst irony of it all is the inability for these guys to admit they were wrong. Taubman was wrong for just being a douchebag, Crane was wrong for a non-apology, the organization as a whole was wrong for undermining a journalist, there’s plenty to go around. But facing domestic violence—when it’s literally happening to you—involves the harshest admission of being wrong. You have to look at yourself and everyone you know and say “I was wrong.” I was wrong about everything, I was wrong about who I thought this person was, I was wrong about what I thought my future would be, I was wrong about all the excuses I made, I was wrong about all of it. And now here I am.
The absolute inability of men in positions of power (we’ll go with sports and keep it focused here) to say that is part of why abuse is so common and so pervasive. If you can’t say you were wrong to defend this person, and you can’t say you were wrong to hire this person, then what’s going to make you say it was wrong that this abuser did what he did? It’s a culture of impunity, and unless it ever changes women will continue to be on the receiving end of that cruelty.
Photo credit: awfulannouncing.com
It doesn’t fit for this front office to say they put on a show to justify making the choice they wanted to make the entire time anyway. Maybe they did, but while they don’t always get it right, I would be hard-pressed to ever accuse Theo Epstein’s regime of not being thorough. I don’t think there’s any move they’ve made where they were just tossing a football around the office, never even looked at a sheet or screen, and said, “Yeah sure whatever.”
So I don’t think the two interviews for David Ross were just for the sake of doing it because they gave Joe Espada two interviews. I don’t think they were just making it seem like they were doing their due diligence while they actually just got drunk with Ross and made fun of ESPN personalities (which probably did happen in addition, to be fair). My guess would be they put Ross through a pretty heavy ringer to be comfortable giving him the manager’s job.
Does the familiarity help? Sure, of course. But that goes both ways. The only thing I’m sure of with the Cubs’ manager search is they wanted a guy who will run the team in the same vision they have for it as they put it together. That doesn’t mean they’ll be calling down to the dugout during the game and telling Ross or whoever else they might have hired what to do. But when they put together this team this winter, whatever and however that’s going to be, anyone would have a clear idea of how they want the pieces moved on the board. Whether that vision is correct or not…well, that’s what a baseball season is for.
So yeah, they probably want their bullpen used more creatively than 7th- and 8th-inning guy, and then closer. Especially as it’s likely to have at least two guys–Alzolay and Chatwood–who can be used for multiple innings. They probably want that in close games, not just mop-up situations or when there’s no other option. They want a different environment for younger players, as this one kind of stalled out for some (assuming they can actually play). They probably don’t want Albert Almora leading off ever again. They want things to definitely be tighter than they were this year.
But for anyone to say, “Oh Ross will do this or that. Or he’ll bring this or that to the clubhouse…” We don’t have any idea. He doesn’t have any idea. Neither does Theo. We can guess and they might have a stronger inkling thanks to the interviews and their relationship with him, but no one knows.
Sure, he doesn’t have any experience. But he also spent his entire career as a backup catcher, which means he spent most of his career watching from the dugout, seeing how things play out. And if he thought he wanted to be a manager at any point, which he obviously did, it was probably in that context at some point long ago.
Yes, he has a relationship with some of the players, and all of the core. Maybe that means he holds them accountable better. Maybe it means he thinks he’s still their buddy. Maybe it means he knows exactly how to get through to them and immediately get on board and bring the rest of the team with them. We don’t know, and probably won’t until July.
Maybe he sets a harsher tone. He was a great clubhouse leader as a player. I mean, everyone says so. Except that all of those things that made him so are things we never saw. We take their word for it. The volume of it makes it probably true, but how does that play as a boss? He acted as something of a conduit from the manager to the players in both Boston and Chicago, so he’s not unfamiliar. But I’m not going to take him yelling at Anthony Rizzo one time in spring training as a basis for how he’ll run an entire team for an entire season and more.
But the tangible stuff? We don’t have any idea. Can he get players to change their approach at times? A few hitting coaches have failed at it now, so why will Ross be any different? He could. He might not. We don’t know. Can Ross make Quintana discover a new pitch or new way of delivering one of the ones he has to find more success? Maybe? Who knows?
Ross will probably look like a good manager if he gets a starter to slot either right below or right in the middle of Kyle Hendricks and Yu Darvish and definitely above Q and Jon Lester, along with two more bullpen arms. I bet he looks pretty smart then. Oh, and Ian Happ hits out of center and Nico Hoerner is ready to take over at second by no later than Memorial Day.
All we can say for sure is that in those interviews, the outline or vision Ross had for how this team should look and be deployed lined up with what the front office sees. But we don’t know what that vision is, they’re not going to tell us. We’ll find out during the season.
My fear is that Ross’s name and esteem amongst Cubs fans and media is part of the appeal, in that he’ll buy some breathing room and time for the rest of the organization in case they have plans they know we won’t like. That’s probably some of the appeal, but not all.
But in the end, we don’t know. We’ll fill this vacuum of nothing with our thoughts and opinions and most of all our guesses because there’s nothing else to do and you can’t leave a vacuum a vacuum, duh. But you don’t know. I don’t know. They don’t know.
And by the time we do know, it could be too late. Or it could be perfect. It could be anything. That can be exciting. That can be daunting. Again, anything.
For the first 30 or so minutes, the Hawks looked like a true NHL hockey team, if not a playoff-bound team. They kept pace with the Knights’s unbelievable-if-you-weren’t-watching-it-with-your-own-eyes speed, a team that has had the Hawks’s number since their inception. But nothing gold stays, Pony Boy, and even the most valiant effort from Robin Lehner couldn’t deliver the Hawks’s first win over Vegas. Still, there’s a lot to be hopeful about. Let’s suss the hope out.
– Robin Lehner was incredible tonight, stopping 33 of 34 shots, including a Tony O-esque pad stack in OT. He was calm and fluid throughout the entire game, even as the Knights ratcheted up their attack in the final 30 minutes of the game. It’s nothing more than a bummer that he let Holden’s shot squeak through the five hole in the waning minutes. Without Lehner, this is a route. Thank Christ NYI had no more use for him.
– Kirby Dach scored his first career goal off his knee. Aside from that, he looked like the future centerman the Hawks need him to be. He nearly had two goals, as he was wide open in the crease for a Garbage Dick pass that was blocked. Dach also set up two excellent chances for teammates: one in the first in which he entered the zone with power, corralled a Flower poke check, then peeled off the near boards for a pass to Gus that turned into an A+ Kane chance; and another chance for DeBrincat in the third that should make whatever equipment you have move and shake. He chased down a loose puck in the offensive zone and tapped it to a streaking Top Cat, who just missed getting it by Flower’s toe.
His only real boners were immediately after his goal, when he fell asleep in his own zone and rolled out the carpet for Jonathan Marchessault, and then turned the puck over after Lehner stopped that shot. His minutes were extremely low thanks to a glut of special teams play, and you hope that Coach Kelvin Gemstone will switch out Nylander for him at some point.
– Olli Maatta was outstanding tonight. He set up Dach’s goal entirely on his own, taking a quick feed from Strome, curling behind the net, and then firing a shot-pass to a wide-open Dach. The fancy stats don’t flesh it out at all (34+ CF%, 24+ xGF%), but for once I can confidently say “Fuck your analytics.” Olli Maatta was relatively impressive tonight, and I would like to sign up for this newsletter.
– This was a vintage performance from Duncan Keith. He was everywhere and for all the right reasons. He led the Hawks in ice time by almost six whole minutes (28:03 total) thanks to a mysterious Connor Murphy injury. His 46+ CF% is a result of the Knights swirly-ing the Hawks in the third, as he had a positive share through the second. He made a strong feed to Saad in the third that Saad couldn’t finish, too. If this is the version of Duncan Keith we’re going to get regularly, hope springs eternal.
– Brandon Saad FUCKS. Well, until his failed clear late in the third, which is probably a harsh assessment per se. He had multiple chances that a locked-in Flower denied, and he killed off a ton of time by himself on the PK just before the 4-on-4 in the second. He and Carpenter were nails on the PK tonight, and Saad and Kubalik have obvious chemistry which would probably go really, really well with a quiet Jonathan Toews.
– Dominik Kubalik was all over the place and is proving once again that the Hawks’s European scouting team is a gold standard. We all sort of expected the offensive potential (as he showed with his 10 SOG against Washington), but the defense looks like it might be just as stout, the best evidence of which came off his slot-pass breakup toward the end of the third.
– Outside of the shootout goal, Jonathan Toews had another piss-poor outing. He and DeBrincat should work in theory, but they don’t work in practice. I know it’s cherry picking here, but his 37+ CF% and 30+ xGF% were much more indicative of his play than, say, Maatta’s numbers. He and DeBrincat are ghosts out there, which might be more worrying for Toews’s performance than DeBrincat’s. Either way, it might be time to put DeBrincat with Dach and Kane, and give Toews Saad and Kubalik.
–Are we all sure we want to give Strome money and years? Yeah, he’s playing on the wing, and yeah, Colliton is jerking him around on the PP1 in favor of Alex Nylander for some dumbass reason, but he’s been awfully quiet lately. Not ready to throw him out yet, but I’m curious about when the curtain comes up on him.
– Any time Erik Gustafsson wants to start being the 60-point defenseman everyone was tripping over their own genitals to remind us he was last year would be nice.
– Connor Murphy spent most (or all) of the third in the locker room for undisclosed reasons. If he’s out of any extended period, I would like to see Adam Boqvist in his spot rather than Slater Koekkoek.
– Brayden McNabb can suck the shit directly out of my ass and call it Golden Corral. His knee on Kane was filth.
The first half of this game was fun, but the Hawks got run over by a better team as the game went on. While there’s a lot to be excited about after this game, there’s still a lot to improve upon.
Onward.
Beer du Jour: Maker’s Mark and High Life
Line of the Night: “And he’s still growing.” –Konroyd describing Kirby Dach’s physical largess.
Our Bears crew bands together to try and pick through whatever the hell that was on Sunday.
So…um…is that a definitive statement on who the Bears are and who they will be?
Wes French (@WFrenchman): Bleh. What a disappointing, disastrous game for the home team.
This is pretty awful and I’m not sure how it gets better. The offense has no idea what to do or how to do it. Adam Hoge said it pretty well in a post game rant last night: “To summarize…the Bears can’t run the ball, so they throw it, but the quarterback can’t hit wide open receivers and when he does, they drop the ball. And then when Nagy goes back to the running game, they fumble the ball.”
Compound that with a defense that can’t get off the field, and all those turnovers/three-and-outs setting up short fields and you have a very bad football team at the moment. You wonder how they even got to three wins, then remember that one came against a bottom franchise historically and another came via the walk-off FG. Even the Vikings win didn’t exactly show much in the way of a capable offense, and that was with Chase Daniel after Mitch’s injury. After leading the league in pressures/game with over 17 avg the first four weeks, the Bears have COMBINED for eight pressures total against the Raiders and Saints. Yikes.
I hate to say it but this isn’t even rock bottom. This could, and quite probably will, get worse. At least Allen Robinson looks fully healthy/amazing?
Brian Schmitz (@_BrianSchmitz):The blame, in order:
- Matt Nagy
- The Running Game
- Mitch
- Defense
I said it weeks ago, Nagy has been figured out, which happens in this league. But what is surprising is that he hasn’t yet counter-punched. He’s lost.
#2 above is really an extension of #1. To become a one-dimensional passing team with a bottom tier QB is just plain bad.
Trubisky threw for 251 yards and 2 TDs with no INTs – his best game of the year. What am I missing here? Besides the 4th quarter.
When your offense blows, and you are on the field again and again after three-and-outs, its not only physically exhausting, its mentally draining.
So, to answer your question. YES. This is both who they are and who they will be.
Tony Martin (@MrMartinBruh): I got fired this morning and even that was less painful than watching the Bears continue to shit the bed, because at least I had low expectations for that job. It’s just amazing to me how after growing up watching the offense struggle under notable chuds like Ron Turner, Mike Martz, Gary Crowton, John Shoop, Mike Tice, and Aaron Kromer, THIS is what might be the biggest disappointment. Hey Matt, I know you want to “BE YOU”, but maybe you can “BE A COACH THAT SETS HIS TEAM UP FOR SUCCESS”, or does that not matter because it won’t fit on your play card? I’ve never seen a team with so much talent look so incredibly lost.
I’m not one to make much of “they should’ve drafted such and such instead”, but Mitch is a mess. The mechanics aren’t there, and the play-calling doesn’t set him up for success. Matt Nagy insists on only using the run as a chance to get gadget touches for the receivers, since Mitch isn’t hitting them with any reliability save for Allen Robinson.
Wes: You can always count on the Bears to amplify the shit around and make it all the more demoralizing.
I gotta say, the talking points coming from Nagy are not making this seem like it’s going to change. He’s making the media out to be a problem/the problem, saying he’ll be telling his players to put the blinders on, don’t listen to the negativity, etc.
So the offense is a total mess/unbalanced/led by a kid that proves every week how little he can do…but can’t let that negativity creep in! This is starting to sound like a cult. I’m way out on Nagy/Mitch right now, and as someone that decided to just drink the kool-aid from the start of this ride, if I’m making the turn on them, they can’t have many supporters left at this point.
Tony: So, really my question is, what did Matt Nagy see in Mitch coming out of college? I know his pleas for Kansas City to draft Biscuit was a big selling point in his hiring process, so where’s the work and development he was going to instill? Mitch still has shit mechanics, admittedly partially due to an offensive line that is overmatched and a poor run/pass balance that lets edge rushers pin their ears back on every second and third down. The scary thing is he hasn’t improved. His footwork is terrible and he’d be overthrowing Manute Bol. What happened to the moving pockets, quick hitting passes that aren’t Allen Robinson curl routes, and the RB they traded up for?
Wes: Two carries. David Montgomery had one single carry per half. And he fumbled and then they never ran the ball again. I wish I was making that up.
Something else that’s starting to come up…Mitch averaged 30/yards a game last year, and that was with him pretty much not running after his injury and return. He has 21 yards ON THE SEASON this year. Maybe move the pocket, roll him out, let him run on some of these RPOs. He can’t hit an open receiver 15 yards away from a clean pocket but he can seemingly hit a streaking player 20 yards away while he himself is on the move. I don’t know man, the guy is more running back than QB, just lean on the strength unless you’re trading for a passer that can do it from the pocket.
Here’s my final thought:
If Mitch can’t make a decision on a play as simple as this, the Bears are utterly fucked.
The Bears are fucked.
With the position players done, we move on to the starting pitching staff where we begin with what might be the biggest success story in White Sox (pitching) history. More on this after the stats jump. To The K-Mobile!
2019 Stats
Games Started: 29
14 Wins 9 Losses
3.41 ERA 1.064 WHIP
228 Ks 56 BB 24 HR
11.62 K/9 3.43 FIP
5.1 WAR
Tell Me A Story: In 2018, Lucas Giolito was the worst starter in all of Major League Baseball. That’s not hyperbole at all, it’s a statistical fact according to Fangraphs. Out of 57 pitchers who met innings pitched requirements, Giolito ranked 57th. Having personally watched a few of his starts live last season, it was a ranking well earned.
With that in mind, expectations for this season were not very high. When he started the first five games of the season with a 5.32 ERA, most were ready to write him off as not a viable core piece for The Future™ being built by Rick Hahn.
Then he went and ripped off nine-straight starts where he didn’t give up more than three runs and struck out at least seven batters. Even more impressive was the improvement of his control, only walking 16 batters in those nine starts. His changeup was electric, with the kind of downward motion that Johan Santana used to beguile Sox hitters with. His fastball was located in the upper reaches of the zone, just at the spot where a hitter can’t possibly catch up to it but it still looks like it could be a strike.
He had one burp (unfortunately) against the Cubs where he gave up six, but he rolled into the All-Star break with an 11-3 record and a 3.15 ERA. This was easily good enough for him to be selected to his first ever All Star game (along with the guy he credits for some of his improvement, James McCann), and ranked him as the 2nd best pitcher in the AL after future White Sox signee (I hope) Gerrit Cole.
After the All Star break ended, Giolito ran into some trouble. From the middle of July till the end of August his walks-per-9 spiked from around 1.55 to almost 2.50. The changeup that was dancing so well at the end of July was just spinning in the middle of the zone and getting pummeled by opposing hitters. Most pitchers that like to live at the top of the zone are susceptible to the long ball, but as long as their out pitch moves out of the zone it’s a line they can walk. That wasn’t happening in Gio’s case, and the results were showing.
As is his way, Giolito dove into the Sox video archives of his starts and dissected his mechanics to find out what his issues were with the release point in his change that were causing it to get slaughtered. Whatever he found, it worked. From his start against the A’s on August 11th (where he gave up two in six innings and took the L while striking out 13) to when the Sox pulled the plug on him in the middle of September with a lat strain Giolito had a 3.33 ERA in seven starts while striking out 70 and only walking 10.
From the 57th starter in the league last season to the 10th overall this year, Giolito is deserving of a few Cy Young votes, and is one of the three players nominated for Comeback Player of the Year Award. He’s also become the surprise gem in the Sox pitching rotation of The Future™. The most impressive thing about Gio’s stats this year (other than the BB and K rates) is the fact that very little of his success is due to batted-ball luck. His FIP is 3.43, which is only .02 higher then his actual ERA, and his BABIP sits at a cool .275, where in comparison Gerrit Cole’s is at .273.
Credit to Giolito for not imploding in on himself like a dwarf star and becoming the latest in a long list of high hype pitchers that never live up to expectations. After the disaster that the 2018 season was for him, his hard work in the off-season should be the boilerplate for Sox pitchers, and something that Reynaldo Lopez should look to emulate this winter.
Contract: Giolito earned $573,000 in 2019 and is under team control in 2020. After that the arbitration years kick in and things will get exponentially more expensive. Look for Rick Hahn to attempt to buy him out of his arbitration years like the Sox did with Tim Anderson and Eloy with a 5-6 year extension.
Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: This isn’t even a consideration, as Giolito has become the ace that the Sox have been looking to develop since before Chris Sale suited up. As a certified member of The Future™, Giolito will be here for the long haul and should become the Obi-Wan Kenobi of the Sox starting rotation from here on out, teaching the young Padawans his secret Jedi pitching ways. Sorry, just watched the new Star Wars trailer for the 300th time and am still buzzing.
vs. 
RECORDS: Knights 6-4-0 Hawks 2-3-1
PUCK DROP: 7:30
TV: NBCSN Chicago
I NEEDED SOMETHING TO CUT THE LIMES: Sinbin.Vegas
We’re staying on the theme of the day, aren’t we?
Let’s get it out of the way at the top. The Hawks have never beaten the Knights. They’ve only gotten a point off of them once in six tries. They’ve been outscored 30-17 in those games. If there’s any team that has spent the last two years illustrating how far behind the Hawks have fallen in team speed and style, it’s the Knights. Most of these contests, the Hawks haven’t been anywhere near them. If the Hawks want to show that they can actually compete in this conference, or have figured out how the game is played now and how they can live in it, tonight would be something of an indicator.
And they might not get a better chance. They have the Knights at home, and on the second of a back-to-back. The Knights got walloped in Philadelphia last night, though some of that was having Oscar Dansk in net and not Marc-Andre Fleury, whom the Hawks will get tonight. So yeah, whole “ANGRY TEAM” thing, but also a tired one. Which means they’ll only be faster than the Hawks by a factor of six instead of eight, or thereabouts.
Let’s start with the Hawks. Robin Lehner will take his turn in net, and seeing as how he had to Atlas the Hawks to two points against the Jackets, he’s probably more in shape for what will almost certainly be a 35+ save effort if the Hawks are going to get something out of this. No word on what the Hawks will do lineup-wise, though they might want to reconfigure their top six again and get Kirby Dach on a wing for this one. Unless they want him dealing with any of William Karlsson, Paul Stastny, or Cody Eakin, Which they definitely do not.
So far, they appear to be sticking with Sunday’s lineup, but look for changes as this game rolls along.
Right, to the Knights. At times they’ve looked utterly unstoppable this season, such as when they pulverized the Sharks twice to open the season or gave the Flames a colonoscopy for fun. They’ve also been well-beaten by the Preds and Flyers, and tied the Senators, so it’s been a bit goofy–as hockey tends to be.
They haven’t been quite the possession monster of years past, at last in terms of attempts. They don’t generate or prevent that many, middling in both categories. When it comes to actual chances though, they’re one of the better teams around, generating far more than they give up. So they’ll let you have the outside, but nothing in the middle and as soon as they block a shot they’re off to the races.
At the moment, it’s their second line that’s the real danger. Mark Stone is a supernova at this point, and taking Max Pacioretty and Paul Stastny along for the ride. Not that the Hawks have been able to do anything about Jonathan Marchessault, Reilly Smith, or Wild Bill in the past either.
Cody Glass and his eminently punchable, smirking rich kid face is the new hotness on the third line, and whenever Alex Tuch returns to flank Eakin on the other side this third line will be as dangerous as many top six units in the league. And that’s if they don’t move Glass to center, which is his natural spot.
At this point, the drill with the Knights is well-known. They have a profusion of speed at forward on all four lines, and their game is simply to get it up to them and up the ice as quickly as possible. One pass or one chip out into the neutral zone and they’re gone. When not doing that, they have no compunction about sending two forecheckers below the opposing goal line to free up the puck and get chances while the other team is scrambling.
The Hawks struggle, at least for one reason, against this team because they still try their intricate breakouts or exits, and it just won’t work. They also don’t have the foot-speed on defense to even give themselves enough time to inhale and bank one off the glass to get out of the zone. That’s the game against the Knights, is you have to get the puck past their forwards that constantly look like the Tasmanian Devil in that cloud he would create when really losing it. Once you do that you can get at this defense as the Flyers did last night. It’s not that good, but it’s well protected and not asked to do much more than clog the middle of their zone, and wing the puck in the general direction of their forwards.
The Hawks think they’re equipped to do this now. We’ll see.
