Hockey

Would Signing Jake Gardiner Actually Have Made Sense Now?

By Sam Fels 1763 0

When you’e watching Olli Maatta excel at the Chris Hudson trail technique behind Mikko Rantanen streaking to the net for his second of the night in January, you’re going to know the answer to this question more than you ever did.

When free agency started, Jake Gardiner was a no-go. We figured he would be too expensive and have to sign for too many years for what was only ok to good production. There were bigger fish (though he re-signed in San Jose), there were cheaper fits (the Hawks found them), and he didn’t seem to provide enough of what the Hawks needed, though some, for the expected investment.

But after the Hawks acquired Maatta and Calvin de Haan, which ups maybe only their professional experience and none of the mobility and skill problems, one has to ask if the Hawks wouldn’t have been better off waiting out the market on Gardiner.

That’s also completely unfair, because very few if any thought Gardiner would be left twisting in the wind. This isn’t baseball, where everyone now knows teams are just going to wait and wait and you can kind of set your price on the player you want and simply tap your foot and look at your watch until they accept it. Most business is done on July 1 (and before), and so if most teams expected Gardiner to sign on that day, it’s understandable.

Gardiner made $4M last year, and is probably still looking in the range of $6M or more to get pen to paper. That’s more than the Hawks have space for, though if they’d left Maatta alone they’d be right there. And Gardiner would come with something that Maatta or de Haan or really anyone on the roster right now cannot provide. That’s the first pass to the forwards, and the ability to open himself up to do so.

Gardiner has a 34-assist and 47-assist season to his name, and was on that pace again this past season but missed 20 games through injury. No, he’s not a top-pairing guy, but he has discernible skillset, which is more than we can say for Maatta. He’s been above the team rate in possession and expected-goals the last three years, and that was for some go-go Leafs teams. One would hope the Hawks would like to score lots of goals too.

Is it possible now? No, pretty much not. The Hawks would have to jettison Murphy on the blue line to make it work financially, and that would just be running place. Could they try and wheel Maatta out of town? Doesn’t seem like it’s in the plans, though you’ll be wishing it was soon enough.

Even if the market continued to drop on Gardiner, whatever spot you’d dream up for him probably should go to Boqvist with the cheaper rate, less years, better wheels, obviously more skill, even with the bigger questions. But hey, plans change, just as they did when the Hawks went with the impulse buy on Robin Lehner. But that was late in the day on July 1. Gardiner still wasn’t signed. Was that the call they should have made?

Again, we’ll lament this after trail-technique.

Baseball

Calling Up Ian Happ Now Is How We Got Here In The First Place

By Sam Fels 1490 0

I understand where the sentiment comes from. When you’re watching Albert Almora perform some modern performance art interpretation of sadness at the plate these days, or Daniel Descalso do anything, or Addison Russell even exist, you can’t help but turn your lonely eyes to Ian Happ’s numbers lately and think, “Well that has to be worth a try.” And maybe that troika has been so god awful that any player showing any spasm of being able to make contact is worth a look. Fuck, that’s how Robel Garcia got here, and he might just be David Bote II (Electric Bugaloo) but at least something might happen when he’s at the plate.

And of late, Happ has been hitting. In July in Iowa, he’s slashing .314/.442/.614. That’s pretty tantalizing. You are forgiven for thinking it’s enough. After all, Almora has shown he might not be a major league hitter at all, and Russell is right behind him. You figure neither would be able to produce a hot three weeks in AAA either. So Happ has to be better. And by all reports he hasn’t accidentally strangled himself in the field, so…

The truth is for all of them, an itchy trigger finger is (at least partially) to blame for their struggles in the majors.

In Happ’s case, his ascension to Wrigley came after only one hot month in AAA in 2017. 28 games, after a slightly above average half-season in AA. And it worked out in 2017 ok, at least for part of it, as Happ was able to hit for enough power to cover up his Ks. And overall, he was just a tick above average last year, but we know the second half was truly ugly. There wasn’t much of a base to fall back on, which was part of the point of sending him down this year. To build that base. Does two and a half weeks count as enough? Sure, the clock is ticking and with the deadline just a week away, the Cubs have basically shuttered any window Happ might have had to prove he was an answer. Thing is, Happ shuttered it too by waiting until July to hit AAA pitching with the same golf balls they’re using at the top level.

You can keep going on this list. Almora never hit in the minors. His one “dominant” stretch was at single-A for a half season. He didn’t dominate at AA or AAA, and when he was called up in ’16 we were told it was basically for his glove. And then he just stayed, trying to build his bat at the major league level. You can see how that’s working out as you try and suffocate yourself in your work lunch.

Russell’s track record in the minors was a little better, but again his ascension to the majors was built more on rep than production. Setting aside the fact that he’s a scumshithead for a moment, Russell did surge offensively at AA for both Oakland’s and Chicago’s system. That was after murdering high-A in 2013. But his Double-A work was only for half of a minor league season because of injury. He played 11 games in AAA before being called up, again mostly for his glove opposite Starlin Castro, which eventually ended up being on both sides. Another example of a player being asked to do most of his learning curve at the major league level, and Russel has never produced an above-average offensive season as a Cub. And he’s way far from it now.

You could throw Schwarber on this list too if you were inclined. But Schwarber absolutely mauled AA in a way that the other three never came close to. But he still only got 17 games at AAA in ’15 before being called up, and his struggles in his first full season in ’17 could be partially attributed to a simple lack of reps at lower levels. Even his much famed demotion in ’17 lasted 11 games, and he’s at least been average offensively since, but nothing like what he flashed. Was the rush to blame?

Even with Happ’s hot three weeks, that’s still less than two months of success at the AAA level total. Time is of the essence for the Cubs, we know that, but is sweeping up Happ in that again going to give you a better answer? At worst right now he’s a September supplement who would still have a month to carve himself out playing time, even if it’s just against lefties (which he’s been better against in Iowa as well).

And right now, that feels like the best case scenario for him, especially if the Cubs make a move for a bat in the next week. Otherwise, you’d have to call him up, with the team’s playoff hopes hinging on him and a base of just one good month in Iowa. Doesn’t seem like enough.

Hockey

If Lucic And Neal Can Be Traded…

By Sam Fels 2068 0

It is kind of amazing that in the NHL, that no matter how stupid and bad a contract, it always ends up getting moved somehow. We just saw it last week when the Calgary Flames and Edmonton Oilers, adding a level of farce to their longstanding rivalry, decided to swap headaches in Milan Lucic and James Neal. We’ve seen Patrick Marleau moved along this year, though his deal was only for three years and only turned bad for one. The list goes on for a bit, though it generally ends with someone being LTIR’d into death.

Still, it was harder to find worse deals than Milan Lucic’s and James Neal’s. If you’re the Oilers, you must be delighted, because there’s a small chance that at least for a season or two, Neal can just stand still and shoot and get you 15-20 goals. He shot just 5% last year, which is less than half of his career mark, and again, if he does nothing else that should rebound. He might get buried possession-wise, he might cost you more goals that way, but at least they can point to something and say, “Well he’s doing something. Is that oaf we traded for him?”

As for the Flames, they can…well I haven’t any idea what they can do. It’s just an inexplicable decision from them, especially for a team that got exposed as not fast enough when Nathan MacKinnon Sherman March’d their ass to the golf course over five games.

But it leads one to ask, if these two contracts can be moved, could Brent Seabrook’s?

No. No it can’t. And the differences are why.

For one, there’s a difference from having $5.2M and $5.7M on your deal, as Lucic and Neal do, and fucking $6.8M on it (you’d think I’d have developed some sort of mental scar tissue to protect myself when reading or writing that, but no, still wince and get queasy every time). Second, Seabrook was 32 when this public health crisis kicked in, and Lucic and Neal signed their deals either at 30 or even younger, when they were at least somewhere near whatever their “prime” was. Both Neal and Lucic are now 31, which is a hell of a lot different than 34 in hockey, as Seabrook is. Seabrook also has five years left on his, whereas Neal and Lucic only have four. So not only did he sign it older, it takes him to an older age.

But most of all, the Hawks haven’t poisoned the water around Seabrook, even if that is an underhanded tactic when done on purpose. Neal was a healthy scratch for the Flames in the playoffs for a game. He was scratched a few times during the season. He was deployed on the third and fourth lines. The same applies for Lucic. He has been healthy scratched, demoted to the fourth line and back again.

In both cases, the teams made it clear those players no longer had a fit on their teams. While still collecting a big check, these are still proud athletes with little wish to be on a team where it’s clear they weren’t wanted or would not be used. In Neal’s case more so, he still feels like he can contribute. After all, he’s only a season removed from being a 25-goal scorer on a Cup finalist. He didn’t feel the need to clean up whatever scraps Bill Peters deigns to toss off the table to him.

The Hawks have done no such thing to Seabrook. He’s only been healthy scratched once in the last two seasons, and that was by Joel Quenneville who’s no longer here. In fact, they’ve bent over backwards in some cases to make sure he doesn’t turn on their new an very fragile coach (or the coach’s very fragile hold on the team, to be more accurate). Seabrook has rarely lost playing time, still getting time with Duncan Keith and taking the top assignments at various points. It was only this past season that Seabrook’s average ice time dipped below 20 minutes per game, even though his play warranted that for a couple seasons, and even then it was still 19:04. At worst, that’s solidly second-pairing minutes. Among the d-men it ranked fourth behind Keith, Gustafsson, and Murphy.

Hell, the Hawks just moved out a kid who reasonably should have been taking most if not all his minutes to avoid upsetting the applecart…er, nacho-cart. Considering he was punted for nothing (GET THAT TASTE OUT YO MOUF, FEATHER!), if Jokiharju’s value was so low a properly run organization not still trying to cash in on nostalgia would have let him play on the third pairing all season if only to build his trade value.

So Seabrook hasn’t lost any playing time or influence, so why should he agitate for a move? Every mistake in the NHL gets cleared up somehow, but the Hawks haven’t really prepared the ground for that. He still gets to play, and he still gets power play time, and he still gets to feel like he wields the axe in the dressing room and organizationally, because he does. Brent Seabrook can get their coach fired if he wants, and if they fire that coach then you’d have to believe the GM has to go to, which might mean the president does as well, and it could be a total house-cleaning.

Perhaps this is only for another season. Perhaps Ian Mitchell and Adam Boqvist force the Hawks into some tough discussions and decisions, and Seabrook can only handle the pressbox for so long. Maybe they figure out something with retirement, who knows? But seeing those two contracts moved, you wonder if the Hawks couldn’t as well if they really wanted to.

Baseball

A Different Kind Of Deadline

By Sam Fels 1718 0

A week out from baseball’s one deadline to end them all, and the White Sox are in a different position than they have been. Last year and the year before, it was about shedding anything that wasn’t nailed down, and there was barely anything permanent on the roster. Though Rick Hahn has made his major moves in the offseason, he has cashed in on Jose Quintana, Todd Frazier, David Robertson, Anthony Swarzak, Melky Cabrera, Joakim Soria, Luis Avilan, and Xavier Cedeno in the middle of a season the past two years. The level of activity figures to be less this time around.

Most of the focus will be on the Sox bullpen, where Alex Colome, Aaron Bummer, and Jace Fry are all candidates to be dealt. The Sox have made noise about keeping any or all three, especially Colome, who has another year of arbitration left and figures to be affordable no matter what he gets through that route in the winter.

Still, the bounty on Colome and Bummer could be higher than normal, simply because of Will Smith. Only one team is going to get him out of the plethora (up to 12, reportedly), seeking him. Which means a bunch of teams are going to be desperate to keep up with the Joneses and get their own pitcher who has succeeded in the late innings this year. Bummer has the added bonus of being left-handed, which like every year is found gold (See you tomorrow, Mr. Pocket!). A team watching Smith go to a direct competitor might convince itself of the absolute must-have Bummer is after that.

The Sox will tell you that they can be competitive as soon as next year, assuming something close to full health from Jimenez, Moncada, Anderson, Robert, Abreu, and McCann in the lineup and the rotation manages to somehow stay in one piece (all of this together seems like huge ask at the moment, but that’s life). And along with that, they’ll need someone to preserve leads and ties in 8th and 9th innings, and Bummer and Colome have already proven they can do that. The devil you know and all that.

Seems a little shortsighted. One, relievers can be found just about anywhere, or crafted from anywhere (and I personally believe Carlos Rodon‘s future is that of a Southside Josh Hader, a multi-inning relief weapon, but let’s have that discussion another time that ends with Fifth Feather beating me over the head with his shoes). If Bummer and Colome can bring back multiple pieces, even just lottery tickets, you’d have to think long and hard about that. There are maybe a handful of relievers worth getting attached to in baseball. Neither of those guys is one of them.

And considering the arms race the AL has become, there is no such thing as too much depth. The Astros won over 100 games last year and still added Yordan Alvarez through their system this term. And there are more they could. The Yankees have like 12 hitters. The Dodgers add another mutant or two every year. You needn’t look any farther than the other side of town to see how you can fall behind when your system stops producing, or is stripped, or both for just a season or two. So the Sox may think they’ll be all set in a year’s or two’s time when Robert and Madrigal join the ones who are already here, but you still have to keep going if you want to compete with the aristocracy in baseball.

If Colome and Bummer do that, you probably have to pull the trigger on it. There’s always more where that came from.

Baseball

Well, Guess It’s Time To Talk About Pedro Strop

By Sam Fels 1473 0

Generally I would leave this kind of thing for a series recap, but the heat from last night’s loss–which definitely had the feel of one you’ll look back on in September and kick something (or this team will make it moot and prove to be worth something, but we’ll see)–probably warrants more. You say things after that kind of loss that after any kind of thinking you know isn’t true. But damn it feels good, doesn’t it? So let’s try and get to the real, except in a non-MTV fashion.

One is the idea that Strop has pitched himself out of high-leverage situations. And there certainly are enough examples now that you could make that case, except they’re not all in a row. The first high-profile cock-up, and one that Sox fans are likely to be citing for years to come, came to Eloy of course. But Strop followed that up with three straight scoreless and hitless outings, and four scoreless outings (giving up just one hit in the fourth outing after). He gave up three hits in an inning in Pittsburgh next, and you may remember that inning as the one Willson Contreras cut down Melky Cabrera at home to keep it scoreless.

After that, he put up another spotless inning before giving up a three-run homer to Starling Marte the next trip out there. Two more spotless outings before he gave up a tying homer against the Padres on Friday (a scorching hot day where everything was leaving), but rebounded the next day. And of course, last night.

So yes, taken as a whole Strop’s record of late doesn’t suggest someone who should be getting the 8th over Kintzler (whether Kintzler was available last night is another question, though). But it hasn’t been a “streak” per se, and you could see if you squint where Maddon could just as easily conclude Strop had some momentum to ride. Strop certainly has earned the most amount of leash as anyone.

Secondly, the idea that Strop isn’t getting whiffs, one I suggested in the aftermath. Again, this just isn’t true. Overall, he’s getting the same amount of swinging strikes as he always has. Broken down by pitch, his slider is getting the same amount of whiffs-per-swing it did in previous seasons, his four-seam is only down a tick, and a split he’s featured this year gets whiffs on a third of the swings it sees.

But the problem area is obvious. It’s his two-seam or sinker, depending on what site is calling it what. It’s only generating 3% whiffs-per-swing. It was the culprit in the homers to Jimenez, Marte, and Naylor. Hitters are managing a .556 average against it (that’s batting average, not slugging), and a slugging 1.556. That’s…unholy.

Still, it’s hard to separate Strop’s two-seam from his four-seam, because they’ve basically both been the same speed his whole career. And both are down a tick in velocity, to 94 MPH average. Strop has never had pinpoint control, but he could miss his spots at 95 or 96. He can’t at 93 or 94, which is what’s obvious.

Still, last night is a touch on the weird side. Pablo Sandoval has made a career of hitting pitches he shouldn’t be swinging at, and that slider was nearly on his shoelaces. I mean, come on…

So that’s just rotten luck. Crawford’s single was just a well-placed grounder, and if it’s two feet to the right it’s a double play and the whole inning is basically over. But both Slater and Panik teed off on fastballs, though the one Panik hit was outside the zone and if it there was a problem it was just a little high. Still, probably not where Strop wanted it.

Another idea I’ve had that isn’t really the truth is that Strop needs to throw his slider more. Well, he is, at least compared to last year. He’s throwing it 40% of the time, compared to 30% last year. However, the two seasons previous, he basically threw it half the time. Those were two of his best seasons as a Cub, though his best came the year before when he threw it about as much as he does now.

Like everyone else, the contact numbers against Strop are getting worse. But his ground-balls are up significantly from last year and in line with his heyday as a Cub. Still, the added FIVE MPH on his exit velocity and the barrel % nearly tripling is a real problem. It’s beyond a problem. It’s an air raid siren.

Health is never far from the discussion with Strop now, because he’s missed time the past three or four seasons. One wonders if he’s getting the push from his legs that he needs considering it’s been leg trouble almost every time he’s landed on the IL.

Another issue is there just aren’t many options. Thanks to Carl Edwards Jr. finally giving fully in to his mental-turtle ways, and Brandon Morrow not actually existing, and Brad Brach’s terminal case of being Brad Brach, you can understand why Maddon is going to wait until he has no choice but to not trust a pitcher who has given him five seasons of plus service. If Kinztler was down, who else do you go to last night after Cishek was used? You tossing Rowan Wick there already?

Going forward, wherever he is used, Strop probably needs to ditch the two-seam fastball, use his slider half the time, and maybe see if he can also play his split off his fastball. But he is 34, and one wonders if this isn’t just time catching up. It better not be, because the Cubs need him. They can’t get three more arms before the trade deadline. Even two is going to be tough. Some answers are going to have to come internally. It’s hard to see a scenario where Strop isn’t one of them and this team going where it needs to.

Baseball

Series Preview – Cubs vs. Giants: So You Think You Can Dance?

By Sam Fels 1370 0

vs.

RECORDS: Cubs 54-45   Giants 50-50

GAMETIMES: Monday and Tuesday 8:45, Wednesday 2:45

TV: WGN Monday, ABC 7 Tuesday, NBCSN Wednesday

THEY CAN’T AFFORD IT EITHER: McCovey Chronicles

PITCHING MATCHUPS

Alec Mills vs. Shaun Anderson

Yu Darvish vs. Madison Bumgarner

Jon Lester vs. Tyler Beede

PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

Kyle Schwarber – LF

Javier Baez – SS

Kris Bryant – RF

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Robel Garcia – 2B

Jason Heyward – CF

David Bote – 3B

Martin Maldonado – C

PROBABLE GIANTS LINEUP

Brandon Belt – 1B

Buster Posey – C

Pablo Sandoval – 3B

Alex Dickerson – LF

Brandon Crawford – SS

Mike Yastrzemski – RF

Kevin Pillar – CF

Donovan Solano – 2B

 

The Cubs have been woeful on the road all season, coming into this one at 18-27. There won’t be time for that on this nine-game trip however, as the final six are against their closest competitors in the NL Central, and any spit-up there is going to make this season just about as urpy as it can get. Before they get to that portion though, they’ll have to deal with one of the hottest teams in baseball, and also one that’s on the precipice of a franchise turning sell-off, in the San Francisco Giants.

So yes, hottest team in the NL. That’s the Giants with their 14-3 record in July. But if you’re looking over this roster and thinking the only way this team could rip off 15 in 18 is by some serious voodoo and wiccan shit, you’re right! The Giants are 22-10 in one-run games. Sure, maybe having Will Smith helps that to close out games, but as we know one-run records are almost entirely luck, and the Giants have been getting all of it of late. Four of those last five wins were in extra innings, and they just came off a four-game series with the Mets that lasted 47 innings. So you might get the impression this pen is a bit cooked heading into this one.

On the sheets, this team isn’t much. The legends that brought it three parades five years are on the downside of their career, and that’s being kind. None of Posey, Crawford, or Belt have provided anything much more than average at the plate for the entirety of the season, but Crawford and Evan Longoria have provided a death rattle over the past month to help fuel this binge of empty wins. Longoria is on the shelf now with plantar fascitis, which is definitely a condition you want in an aging player. Of course, Pablo Sandoval wandered in from the buffet and has hit everything of late, because that’s how it’s going for them. One thing you definitely want to do is count on Sandoval to keep hitting.

The Giants have gotten a boost from retreads like Alex Dickerson and Stephen Vogt, but you know what those things are over a long enough timeline. Donovan Solano and Austin Slater are other whosits that have popped over the last little stretch, but counting on any of this to last much longer is definitely making fantasies out of clouds.

The rotation for most of the year has straight up blown chunks, with only Bumgarner carrying a FIP under 4.00. Jeff Samardzija still grinds and grinds and grunts and grunts his way to a 4.50 ERA if he’s lucky, but of late Tyler Beede has found some kind of formula. Shaun Anderson has not. The Cubs might be witnesses to Bumgarner’s final start as a Giant, as the deadline is only a week after his Tuesday start and he could end up anywhere before then.

The pen has been the real miracle-workers, with Will Smith perhaps being the most prized arm, reliever or starter, on the market right now. But Sam Dyson, Reyes Moronta, Trevor Gott, even Mark Melancon, and Tony Watson (another name on the block) have all been excellent trotting down from where they forgot to put the bullpens at Oracle Park (they seriously did). When the Giants decide to move along Smith and Watson and maybe others is when you feel this will all crumble for them, but you can’t hang onto relievers that can net as much as Smith can right now for some desperate chase for one more game. I mean you can, it would just be moronic to do so.

For the Cubs, a minor roster tweak as Carl Edwards Jr. was sent back to Iowa with Rowan Wick likely his replacement. What Edwards was doing up at all if one bad outing has his ass punted back to the corn is an open question, but one I’m not going to wade too deeply into as my blood pressure sucks anyway. If you feel this latest demotion finally ends any hope that Edwards can be part of the puzzle going forward, you’re not alone. Which means the search for more arms in relief has to be cranked up, because Cishek and Strop are creaky, Brandon Morrow might not even exist, and everything else is tossed into a wish-pool.

The season doesn’t hinge on this trip, but it’s close. If the Cubs can march through it like Sherman, they could give themselves a cushion in the division that feels and looks awfully nice. If they reinsert their thumb in their ass as they’ve done on the road most of the season, they could be staring up at two teams and be in for an awfully desperate and scrappy last two months. None of these teams are great, and though the Cubs might not be either they’re better than these three. They played like it on the homestand, now to take that show on the road.

Baseball

Giants Spotlight: The Bum’s Rush

By Sam Fels 1229 0

There will be no bigger name on the move in the next week or so than Madison Bumgarner. That’s what happens when you get tabbed a playoff hero, seen as someone who can still swing a playoff series (rightly or wrongly, and mostly wrongly these days), and also keep your name in the headlines by being a miserable son of a bitch. Bumgarner checks all those boxes.

The first thing to clear up about Madison Bumgarner is he’s not THAT good. Through most of his career he’s been a low-level #1 or a high-end #2, which was fine when the Giants had Lincecum and Cain in front of him and worked out well when he did pitch like a celestial being for a few weeks in 2014. Since he came into the league, he ranks 13th in WAR, which is good but is also right on par with Gio Gonzalez and Anibal Sanchez and yes, Jose Quintanta (who has made 40 less starts than Bumgarner in that time). He’s not a Sale or Scherzer or deGrom or anything like that, though sometimes it feels like he’s billed as that because of 2014.

So what would any prospective team be getting from this Madison Bumgarner? One, it’s a healthy one finally, as MadBum only threw 241 innings the previous two seasons dealing shoulder problems caused and not caused falling off his dirtbike looking for various woodland creatures to cook over an open fire for dinner that week. Bumgarner has already thrown 125 innings this year, which pretty much matches last year’s total.

And those innings have been much more effective. He’s striking out far more hitters (9.10 per 9 vs. 7.57) and walking less (1.86 BB/9 vs. 2.98). His ERA is strangely worse but his FIP is much better. Also strange for a pitcher of Bumgarner’s age is that he’s gained some life on his fastball this year, averaging over 92 MPH on it for the first time in four seasons. That’s probably something to do with health. His curve is also getting more sweep, picking up horizontal movement without losing its tilt. It makes it more slurve-y, which isn’t ideal, and maybe why Bumgarner is using it far less than he did last year.

There are some warning signs with Bumgarner as well. One, his ground-balls are down measurably and the lowest rate of his career. Again, some of this is just because this is happening to most everyone, but a drop of five percent is more than one that can be dismissed as a sign of the times. And it’s been replaced mostly by line-drives, which is not good either. Bumgarner’s hard-contact rate is the highest of his career by a distance, and if he were to move to a park that didn’t require a bazooka to get a ball out of, that could turn into a real problem fast.

Recent outings only muddle the picture more. On the surface, Bumgarner has only given up three earned runs in his last four starts, But two of those comprised only seven innings combined, as rain shortened one start to two innings. The walks were non-existent, but there’s been a ton of loud contact in July (53%). Bumgarner has also lost a full MPH off his fastball in the month, which wouldn’t get anyone putting on their red shoes to dance the blues in excitement either.

The next question is what is Bumgarner worth. His contract being up after the season certainly lowers his value, and this is not Verlander or someone like that changing teams midstream. The Giants are probably dreaming about a package similar to Chris Archer netted the Rays last year, as Bumgarner is better than that. But it’s hard to find a teams as stupid as the Pirates again, and Archer wasn’t a free agent to be. That was two prime prospects, and any kind of bidding war probably inches the Giants toward that. What they may fear is a return that Cole Hamels provided the Rangers, which was a journeyman major leaguer in Eddie Butler, and a couple of lower-level lottery tickets that are nowhere near the majors. Bumgarner is younger and not struggling as Hamels was at the time, so the answer is probably somewhere in the middle.

Then again, it becomes a question of do the Giants move him at all. Logic tells you there’s no choice to be made here, and their window has shut and whatever they feel they might “owe” mainstays like Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, and Brandon Crawford are just going to have to wait a few years while they try and redo the supporting cast beneath them. And the way Crawford is playing these days, it probably doesn’t matter anyway. Still, the Giants are one of the hottest teams in baseball, and are somehow only 2.5 games out of the wildcard. Of course, if you have to go nuclear just to get to .500 and be within touching distance of a coin-flip game with four teams to leap still, that’s pretty much every answer you need on what you should do.

Bumgarner’s trade isn’t going to change the fortunes of the Giants as heavily as they might want. But it would certainly signal a change in direction for good, and put an official bow on their run. Even though those things are hard to quantify and shouldn’t matter, they make this kind of move hard to deal with for everyone. But nothing lasts forever, except the three flags in the outfield at Oracle.

Baseball

It’s Silly Season – Let’s Run Through Some Cubs Trade Targets

By Sam Fels 1342 0

With there being only one trade deadline this season, and for some reason MLB not moving it back to between where the two used to be, there’s some added zeal to July 31st this time around. Teams not only have to scramble to plug holes and needs, but have to plan for any eventuality that could happen in the next two months. The Cubs acquisition of Martin Maldonado is something of an example of this, where they didn’t want to have to deal with an extended Taylor Davis Experience should something happen to Willson Contreras or Victor Caratini (and it kind of did to the former, though very lightly it seems). Even if you don’t have a need somewhere but need cover, teams are going to be chasing that depth that in the past would have been a nothing waiver-wire pickup on August 29th.

Whatever this Cubs season has been, and it’s been a lot of things, they’re still in first place by multiple games and clearly have to have the chase for the postseason their minds. The names are already out there, so let’s run them through.

Nick Castellanos – This one seemed obvious a while ago, made the mainstream papers over the last few days, so you know there’s some fire to go with this smoke. And unlike some other targets, Castellanos is something of a sure thing. You know what you’re getting, which isn’t a miracle worker or a doomsday device but a pretty solid, above-average hitter. Castellanos was much better last year, but the two years previous had wRC+ of 119 and 112 and is at 115 this year, so it’s fair to assume that’s probably what he is. Castellanos has a .361 BABIP last year, some 30 points over his career average, and this year he’s much more in line with his career number. He’s not making as much hard contact this year as he has in the past, but he is hitting more fly balls, which could play better in Wrigley than it does in the vast environs of Comerica Park…at least until the winds shift in September. It can be hardly argued that Castellanos for sure wouldn’t provide a hell of a lot more than Almora, whom you’d guess he would be replacing in the lineup. Almora needs the Hubble just to see average offensive numbers.

The worry with Castellanos, if it even rises to that level, is defense. Mainly in that he can’t play it. Right field in Wrigley we know to be an adventure, and he has trouble with non-adventurous spaces. Heyward just isn’t that good in center, so you’d be taking your outfield defense from decent to borderline bad. There’s a lot of people who don’t seem to care about this, or just dismiss it as being able to put Almora in center in the late innings, as if for some reason teams weren’t allowed to hit balls to the outfield in the 4th inning?

People who do take this seriously live in the Cubs’ front office, however. It’s important to remember that the Cubs starting staff doesn’t really have a big strikeout guy other than Darvish. That said, the Cubs have the highest ground-ball rate in baseball from their pitchers, and the second-lowest fly-ball rate (no, I’m not sure how either but that’s the world we live in), so if there’s any team that can get away with a partial circus clown outfield, it’s the Cubs.

So the question is does the added offense offset your drop in defense? I would say it does, but not as much as some would think, but thanks to the Cubs’ pitching staff and their ways, it’s not as big of a concern as it is for others.

Danny Santana – This is a name that’s popped up in the past couple days due to the full-body dry-heave the Rangers have performed over the past week to drop from playoff contention. As if anyone was really buying them anyway. And this one is a hard no from me. Santana hadn’t been a plus-player in any fashion since his debut with the Twins five seasons ago, and there’s an awful lot of mirrors and smoke with this one. Santana’s BABIP is .399, and I shouldn’t have to say more than that. Yeah, he’s hitting the ball considerably harder than he ever has, so are a lot of people, and he plays several positions. But this is a balloon that could pop at any moment, and then you’re left with another Descalso when one is too many.

Eric Sogard – The chance to just yell, “NERD POWER!” every game makes it worth it for me, but I would hope the Cubs have slightly more qualifications at which they’re looking. But I’m sure Theo and Jed also would look forward to yelling, “NERD POWER!”  He can, in a break glass in case of kind of way, get you out of a game or two in the corner outfield spots or at short for how many offdays they project Javy would need (increasingly looking like none). But you’d do this to shore up your second base spot, which needs it. Sogard himself is having something of an anomalous offensive season, as we’re only a year out from him putting up a 14 wRC+ in 55 games with the Brewers last year. His career-mark is 82. Sogard’s .491 slugging this year has come from literally nowhere, with a career number of .340. And at 33, this is another balloon that could pop at anytime. He’s not that effective defensively, so I’m not convinced this is any better than just riding the Robel miracle and see where that goes.

Billy Hamilton – I’ve seen this suggested a few places, as something of an Almora replacement after he’d dealt to the late-inning glove and speed guy. Or to just stop him from ever beating up on Jon Lester again. He would cost nothing, and he is both of those things mentioned, but the late-inning defensive replacement leaves me a touch cold when you still have seven or eight innings to get through before that. Let’s think harder.

Whit Merrifield – Solves everything, way expensive trade-wise, and almost certainly isn’t happening, especially as the Royals are supposedly asking for three major league-ready players in return and I’m not convinced the Cubs even have that. And the Royals probably want to do better than Ian Happ, whose hot two weeks probably haven’t raised his value as much as Cubs fans would like to think. And even if they did you’d have to add two more names to that.

So those are some bats being mentioned, and now that I’ve done this the Cubs will assuredly trade for someone not on this list. That’s just how these things go.

Baseball

Series Recap – Cubs Take Two Of Three From Padres: That’ll Do, Pig

By Sam Fels 1213 0

Game 1 Box Score: Cubs 6, Padres 5

Game 2 Box Score: Cubs 6, Padres 5

Game 3 Box Score: Padres 5, Cubs 1

Huh. The Padres scored five runs in every game. Only won one. That’s weird, right? Anywho, the temptation is to bitch that the Cubs didn’t get the last one of the homestand to make it a glittering 8-1. But 7-2 is way beyond acceptable, Morejon and Quantrill were absolutely dealing today, and sometimes you’re just not getting it. Considering the Cubs came out on the right side of a couple one-run decisions in the first two games, you’re probably due for a clunker. What’s really important is what comes on this roadie, as it’s one of the hottest teams in baseball followed by your direct competitors. We’ll take 7-2 on that too, thanks.

Let’s clean it up.

The Two Obs

-Still, today was frustrating because once again, the back half of the bullpen cannot keep the Cubs within a run. They probably weren’t going to score off Yates today anyway, but you’d at least take your chance. The impulse to lambast Maddon for bringing in Carl Edwards Jr. in a high-leverage situation right in the middle of it is understandable, but there really wasn’t anyone else. Cishek and Kintzler had to be down for the day. Strop most likely. Kimbrel would never be used there. Brach and Ryan had already gone. Your only other choice is Chatwood, and he’s no sure thing either.

And the time for babying Edwards is over. Either he’s a guy who can handle this or he’s not and we can all move on with our lives. Judging by the fact that his fastball was barely touching 92 today, I know which way I’m leaning.

-While on the pen, Strop gave up another lead on this third best pitch, a two-seam fastball that doesn’t do anything. Sometimes I wonder if two-seam is just the label they’re putting on a splitter that doesn’t do shit, but either way Strop needs to lose this pitch. Hitters have been losing it for him enough. His four-seam isn’t overpowering but he at least spots it well, and he should be going down with either that or his slider. He doesn’t need a starter’s repertoire.

-Considering the conditions, the work the Cubs got out of Lester and Quintana is good stuff. They won’t go down as quality starts, but they were considering the environment.

-How nice was it to watch the other team kick the ball around to lose a game on Friday?

-I’m not sure I’ve ever seen the wind turn around like that instantly as it did yesterday.

-Looks like I motherfucked Anthony Rizzo just right. You’ll notice his grand slam came to left field, so in that sense, I’m a genius.

-It’s really starting to feel like we’re seeing the last of Albert Almora Jr. around here. He’s completely lost at the plate, to the point where even his plus-defense doesn’t cancel it out. We’ve had more than enough ABs in his career to conclude he’s just not going to be much of a hitter. Joe Sheehan can wail about his playing time all he likes, but a .666 OPS tells you everything.

-One thing I’ve noticed Maldonado does, and Caratini for the most part too, that Contreras doesn’t, is that he doesn’t drop his glove when setting up and always presents the target. Pitchers must love that, and should be an easy correction for Willson to make.

-Give the Padres two years and a clean bill of the health and they might muddle up this Dodgers nightmare the NL West has lived through.

Onwards…

Baseball

Series Preview – White Sox vs. Rays: The Road Goes On Forever And The Party Never Ends

By Sam Fels 1218 0

vs.

RECORDS: White Sox 42-51   Rays 56-43

GAMETIMES: 6:10 Friday, 5:10 Saturday, 12:10 Sunday

TV: NBCSN Friday and Sunday, WGN Saturday

LEFT TURN SIGNAL ON: DRays Bay

PITCHING MATCHUPS

Reynaldo Lopez vs. Brendan McKay

Lucas Giolito  vs. TBA

Dylan Cease vs. TBA

PROBABLE WHITE SOX LINEUP

Leury Garcia – RF

Yoan Moncada – 3B

Jose Abreu – 1b

James McCann – DH

Welington Castillo – C

Jose Rondon – SS

Jon Jay – LF

Yolmer Sanchez – 2B

Adam Engel – CF

PROBABLE RAYS LINEUP

Austin Meadows – RF

Tommy Pham – LF

Ji-Man Choi – DH

Nate Lowe – 1B

Yandy Diaz – 3B

Kevin Kiermaier – CF

Travis d’Arnaud – C

Joey Wendle – SS

Michael Brosseau – 2B

 

The White Sox will take their traveling carnival with defective rides down to the airplane hangar of Tropicana this weekend, for three games with the wildcard chasing Rays. The Rays will think this is the perfect tonic after losing three of four to the Yankees in the Bronx, which pretty much ended their hopes of any division crown. Especially with Eloy laid up. Even still, eight games back with 63 to go would be quite the trick.

The Rays haven’t gotten here through offense, or at least not sheer offense. It’s been timely, but mostly middling in every category you’d look at in the AL. Pham, Lowe, Meadows, and Diaz have been more than serviceable, though all have gone cold of late. They can’t slug with the Yankees, which is part of the reason they went from ahead early to watching the pinstripes disappear over the horizon of late.

It’s on the mound where the Rays stand out, leading the AL in ERA and FIP as a team among their starters. Which is kind of weird, as they only boast about three starters but have mastered the idea of the opener. Tyler Glasnow has been on the shelf and might not return this year. Ian Snell and Charlie Morton have been great, though the Sox might not see either this weekend. But aside from that, Ryan Stanek usually gets the opening duty. He’s made 27 starts but only thrown 43 innings. Yonny Chirinos sometimes follows him or starts himself. Brendan McKay will be a normal starter tonight, but beyond that the Rays haven’t said what they’re going to do. Chirinos and Morton started yesterday in New York so they’re definitely out. Snell looks odds on to take Sunday’s start.

As you’ve probably guessed, the Rays have a host of options out of the pen that you’ve never heard of but all work, because that’s just how they do down there. Emilio Pagan and Diego Castillo are splitting the closing duties of late, but Kittredge and Poche can get big outs too.

For the Sox, Adam Engel has returned to dutifully man center field and go up to the plate with his pool noodle bat. They’ll throw what are probably their two best guns in Giolito and Cease, with Lopez trying to find it again tonight. It’s been a road trip from hell for them, and playing in the quite expanse of The Trop will probably seem more like purgatory. There’s a long homestand waiting after this one, but the Rays will need some get-back too so if the Sox are already thinking about the plane home, they may find this one goes to 10.