You know, I never joined a sorority partly because I think that trials of loyalty and the concomitant proof of conformity are stupid. And yet here I am, with this fucking cabal, saddled with all the Red Wings games. You believe this shit? Anyway, let’s get on with it. (And fraternity/sorority people, don’t come at me, I’m only generalizing about my thoughts, not demeaning yours.)
Oh hey look! It’s the new kid! The mouthy, over-hyped new kid, but because he has the nicest house and the latest video games and the best weed everyone’s going to go over there after school anyway. Yes, this Vegas team hasn’t really shut up since well before they expansion draft, but you’re going to get constant updates about their ticket sales and Twitter and FB are going to be filled with your fellow fans making the trip out to Vegas when their team is there. At least a group of sweaty hockey fans aren’t the worst group of people you can find yourself surrounded by in Vegas, but it’s close. Anyway, the chatter will do everything it can to distract you from the fact this team is something you’d dig out of the bathroom drain. And it’s probably going to be that way for a few years. Which it should.
Oh right… we can’t do previous year’s stats, because they didn’t exist. So we’ll just hop right into it.
After the Blackhawks tore my heart out by trading Teuvo, it did not take long for me to settle on Nick Schmaltz as special boy 2.0. There was a lot to get excited about with him, with his smooth speedy skating, his vision and passing ability, and his sneaky good but oft-underused wrist shot. Plus, his Twitter feed is extremely “college hockey player,” which can be both bad and good, but I get a kick out of it. He was fine in his rookie year, and at times I was damn near convinced he could be better than Teuvo (my heart is still torn). There were some kinks to work out, of course, but a lot to be encouraged by. Shall we?
2016-17 Stats
61 GP – 6 G – 22 A
49.4 CF% – 57.5 oZS% – 42.5 dZS%
13:16 Avg. TOI
A Look Back: Schmaltz was a bit slow starting last year, with just 5 points (1G, 4A) in 26 games before the New Year, which saw him get demoted to Rockford for a spell. He found his production again with the Hogs, potting 6 goals and 3 assists in 12 games before getting recalled and bringing that scoring to the NHL. He scored two points in his second game after being recalled, and finished with 23 points (5G, 18A) in his last 35 games. I’m inclined to believe that he is more the player that we saw in the second half of last year than the one we saw in the first half. That .65 PPG rate over the last 35 games paces out to about a 54 point total over 82 games, which would’ve been a phenomenal rookie year for him and had ranked him 4th among rookie scorers. Obviously that’s a shitload of hypotheticals, but the point I’m getting at is that the kid is good, and his rookie year much better than his raw numbers would show.
The shot share being below water is slightly disconcerting, especially with those zone starts, but most of that came while he was spending a good amount of time with Tyler Motte and Richard Panik in the 2016 half of 2016-17. Once he came back up from the A, he spent a good amount of time with either flanking Toews and Panik or centering Panarin and Kane, and he was pretty even for the last half of the year. So yeah, the slow start hurt him overall, but the last half of the season is a better indication of who he is, and his last half of the season was really strong.
A Look Ahead: The big question for Schmaltz this year is going to be figuring out what his position is. He has the skillset to be a scoring 2C at the NHL level, but the question is if he actually he can use that skillset to play like one. He also will probably need to prove he can win faceoffs, because at present Jonathan Toews is the only center on the team I feel confident in on the dot. Faceoffs aren’t the end-all-be-all for centermen, and if he can produce as a center without winning faceoffs it might be okay, but it’s always better to start play with possession of the puck.
Luckily, he has kept the momentum from the end of last year, and has come into the preseason playing well. He definitely has looked like he can hang in the NHL as a 2c, though the preseason is definitely not the time to come to any conclusions. As I and others on this blog have already said probably 10 times, the hope is that Schmaltz starts the year between ADB and Kane, or at least ends up there for a good look at some point. That’d be a line of three playmakers, and Kane and ADB both have the finishing ability to get Shcmaltz 40-50 assists. If those three are on a line together for a good stretch of the season, I can see 50 point years from both ADB and Schmaltz.
When he isn’t between those two, he’ll likely be the 3C with any collection of Hayden, Jurco, Hinostroza, Sharp, Panik, etc. If he’s there for most of the year, look for about 40+ points, but if he’s scoring at that sort of pace in that role, it’d be time to get him with Kane at the very least. I could also see him ending up on the wing at times with Toews and Saad. I don’t think that’d be the best usage of him, but it could happen, and it might be a fit. He could rack up the points with them, too. So there’s a lot of options, and a lot of hope for Schmaltzy. Let’s hope it goes as well as we are hoping.
All statistics via Hockey Reference, HockeyViz, and NHL.com.
Photo via Nick Scmaltz’s Twitter
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These days, I have to concentrate to remember when the Canucks and Hawks was the NHL’s fiercest rivalry. You may have forgotten as well. They were the four regular season games we looked forward to most. Their playoff series, as ugly and nasty as they got at times, were basically all the reasons we watch hockey. It had villains and drama and heroes and moments.
And yet the last time anyone talked about the Canucks without a tone of pity, amazement (the wrong kind), or scorn was five years ago. And it’s not going to change for a while either. Which breaks my fucking heart, let me tell you.
Vancouver Canucks
’16-’17 Record: 30-43-9 69 points (dead ass last in the Pacific)
Team Stats 5v5: 47.9 CF% (26th) 46.6 SF% (29th) 46.2 SCF% (28th) 7.0 SH% (22nd) .924 SV% (15th)
Special Teams: 14.1 PP% (29th) 76.6 PK% (28th)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c2JUD9Vj7u4
2016–17 Stats
82 GP – 24 G, 29 A, 53 P
54.8 CF%, 57.8 oZS%, 42.2 dZS%
ATOI: 17:02
A Look Back: Like the first open-mouth kiss with a longtime crush, the return of Brandon Saad should be crackling every synapse in every brain of every Blackhawks fan. There simply aren’t many players like Saad in the NHL, let alone on the Blackhawks. Size in the NHL is often akin to truck nuts on a secondhand Subaru, but not with Saad, who backs up his 6’1”, 206, frame with speedy and graceful skating reminiscent of a hockey-hardened Baryshnikov.
Aside from the 2 games he played as a 19-year-old in 2011–12, Saad has never had a negative CF% Rel. Even John Tortorella, a man who undoubtedly and enthusiastically tugs at his scrotum when asked, “What’s the most important trait in a good hockey player,” couldn’t screw up Saad’s usage, try as he may. His career CF% is a throbbing 54.5, a number that hardly swooned while he played for the historically puck-allergic Blue Jackets. Last year with Columbus saw his CF% Rel at a robust 6.4, and at no point did his CF% dip below 50 in Columbus.
In his tryst with America’s astronaut factory, Saad put up consecutive 53-point seasons, peppering his stat line with his first 30-goal season in 15–16. Over the past 3 years, he’s put up seasons of 52, 53, and 53 points; and CF%s of 54, 50.4, and 54.8. He’s scored at least 20 goals each of his past 3 seasons and has missed only 10 regular-season games throughout his entire career.
On top of all the fancy numbers, Brandon Saad is the definition of the power game schmucks like me want to see in the NHL. Saad is power with a purpose, not a wild-eyed underbite. When there’s a puck buried in the corner, Saad can dig it out. When there’s a penalty to kill, Saad is no more out of place there than he is on the power play. He embodies all of the elements the PASS SKATE SHOOT HIT HIM crowds drool over without sacrificing production in advanced stat categories.
In short, Brandon Saad FUCKS.
Before we dive into the logistics of using Saad, a word on how we got him back. I won’t begrudge anyone upset over losing Panarin, who was one of the most exciting players to watch on the ice. But on the whole, Saad is so much more valuable than Panarin, it’s a bit puzzling why there was any vitriol over the trade, let alone the wailing and gnashing of teeth social media is so apt at providing. Coming into this year, the Hawks have a lot of soft spots surrounding the corps of their defensive apple, a captain who looked to be running on fumes at times last year, and a Panarin prototype in Alex DeBrincat. What they didn’t have is a back-checking, defensively responsible power forward who can be slotted anywhere on the ice and excel, after losing Hossa to a debilitating disease. Preventing goals is just as important as scoring them, and Saad can do both, whereas Panarin could do just one.
A Look Ahead: It’s no secret that Saad will slot with Toews and Wiener Anxiety. What that line is going to be expected to do is the interesting part.
If the whispers about a DeBrincat–Schmaltz–Kane line turn into shouts, you’d have to expect to see Saad–Toews–Panik taking on more defensive responsibilities than usual. This would affect where we end up going in terms of defensive pairings, since I can’t imagine putting anyone other than Keith–Murphy behind a DeBrincat–Schmaltz–Kane line.
Having a powerhouse like Saad could serve as a boon for Toews, who will benefit from Saad’s work below the goal line, and Panik, who figures to double as a Byfuglien-esque screener/space clearer and good-not-great defensive RW: Did you know that Panik spent exactly 50% of his time in his own zone last year, or that in his career, he has a 50.8 dZS% and a 49.1 CF%?
But perhaps more importantly, adding the defensively adept Saad to this line could give Q and Ulf Samuelsson’s hairpiece more cushion to experiment with Kempný- and Forsling-led pairings, letting them backstop a defensively responsible line with less pressure to cover for the kinds of mistakes that an eminently dynamic but defensively weak DSK line would be more likely to make.
Though my favorite part about bringing Saad back is that he brings a defensive prowess that we haven’t had since the last time he was here playing with Hossa, it’d be irresponsible to ignore his potential as a scorer. There’s two ways to look at Saad’s offense:
1. It’s consistent but topped out. Check out his point totals in each full year he played:
|
Year |
Games Played |
Goals |
Assists |
Points |
Points Per Game* |
|
12–13 (CHI) |
46 |
10 |
17 |
27 |
0.58 |
|
13–14 (CHI) |
78 |
19 |
28 |
47 |
0.60 |
|
14–15 (CHI) |
82 |
23 |
29 |
52 |
0.63 |
|
15–16 (CBJ) |
78 |
31 |
22 |
53 |
0.67 |
|
16–17 (CBJ) |
82 |
24 |
29 |
53 |
0.64 |
* All numbers rounded down
Saad will be 25 in a month. That means if he’s not in his prime, he’s coming up on it. He has one 30-goal season to his credit thus far. While the PPG consistency is good, especially considering how well he does everything else, there is reason to believe that the 50–60 point range is what you’ll get with Saad.
2. Saad’s relative stagnation was a result of playing in Columbus. When asked whether he saw himself as a 30- or 40-goal scorer, Saad responded with a resounding “Yes.” Saad played most of his time in Columbus with Nick Foligno and Alex Wennberg. While the jury may be out on whether Panik is better than Foligno (he’s probably not), Toews is surely better than Wennberg. The idea is that playing with Toews again will continue to boost Saad’s point totals, which were on the uptick each year until he went to Columbus. It’s important to note that in 2015–16, Saad had a shooting percentage (S%) of 13.3, much higher than his career 11.8 S%, which helps explain the irony of him scoring his highest goal total after leaving Toews’s side. But if he and Panik can take some of the pressure off of Toews to retrieve and control the puck, it’s possible that Toews can come out of his slog and create more scoring chances for Saad.
I tend to think that Saad’s more in the consistent but topped out offensive camp. While I can see a 30-30-60 year from him, expecting 70–80 points might be asking a bit much, especially if we do get a DeBrincat–Schmaltz–Kane line, since Saad–Toews–Panik will have to eat up much more time against opponents’ top lines. Still, a defensively talented power forward with strong speed and vision who can also score 55 points is increasingly rare.
In short, Saad is God, Jr. He’s more useful than Panarin. Having him out with Toews could bring about a renaissance for The Captain. His presence should take some of the pressure off of the younger D-men like Kempný and Forsling if/when their pairings back Saad’s line up. His all-around game is a welcome aspect for a team that lost one of the greatest back-checkers of all time, and should help re-establish the Hawks as a strong possession team.
Welcome back, old friend.
Photo Credit Toronto Star
Stats retrieved from hockey-reference.com
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It’s always good right on the eve of the season to have something happen that makes you want to watch the NHL’s marquee games less than you already do. Having Mike Milbury replace Eddie Olczyk in the booth is certainly one way to do that.
We don’t need to go deeply into all the way Milbury sucks. He’s a neanderthal, he’s not even funny, and the next time he says anything correct about a game he’s watching will be the first, if he even watches before he belches out something between periods. He doesn’t even have in-game experience, which is a different job than studio analyst. Needless to day, this is going to be awful.
But let’s go into just how terrible this is, because it’s quite astounding.
In about five years, if you’re not already, we’re all going to look back and just wonder how in the hell the Sharks ever came out of the West. It was the perfect storm for them I suppose, as the bottom dropped out on pretty much every other team that had kept them down for so long and they were able to rise by standing still. It might be as good as things get for the Sharks for a while. Teams aren’t supposed to be completely handcuffed by the departure of a 35-year-old, one-dimensional scorer. It’s the kind of thing you buttress your team against. And yet, here the Sharks are, still holding a bouquet of flowers for Patrick Marleau in the rain, unaware that they’ve completely wilted now and wondering just where their love went. And it hasn’t allowed them to come up with too many answers otherwise either.
San Jose Sharks
’16-’17 Record: 46-29-7 99 points (3rd in Pacific, coldcocked by Oilers in Round 1)
Team Stats 5v5: 51.1 CF% (8th) 51.8 SF% (4th) 51.4 SCF% (9th) 7.8 SH% (14th) .924 SV% (12th)
Special Teams: 16.6 PP% (25th) 80.6 PK% (16th)
It’s often hilarious to remember that the Blackhawks got Richard Panik from the Maple Leafs for alleged professional hockey player Jeremy Morin. Poor Mr. Morin has found himself traded aproximately 200 times in his career and has never stuck at the NHL level. I don’t even know if he still plays for any organization in North America, and I truly don’t care to Google it and find out. Richard Panik is still here and could be important for the Blackhawks this season. He’s certainly important for those jokes about that one band.
2016-17 Stats
82 GP – 22 G – 22 A
49.6 CF% – 50.0 oZS% – 50.0 dZS%
14:44 Avg. TOI
A Look Back: Panik had a rather productive season last year, and in terms of what was expected from him he just about blew up. His 44 points were far and away a career high, and a cool 35 of those came at evens. He benefited greatly from playing with Toews and/or Hossa for most of the season, but in many ways also helped to redeem the season for those two as well. It’s not often that a forward of Panik’s ilk makes such a big leap forward in his age 25 season, especially after basically putrid production numbers in the past, but you’ll find no complaints around these parts about him being able to do so. His possession numbers weren’t exactly encouraging, but with a dead even split in zone starts, and the competition he faced alongside Toews, he wasn’t going to light up the Corsi Files anyway.
The most encouraging thing about Panik’s season is that it is extremely easy to find how and why he was able to jump up in production so easily. The cynic’s brain would likely seek to attribute it to an unsustainable spike in shooting percentage, as he registered a 14.2% conversion rate, but that was actually down last year from a 15.4% mark in 15-16, and was below his career mark of 14.4% as well. I was actually not that shocked upon seeing those numbers, because Panik does have a good wrist shot, with a quick release and damn near devastating speed on it.
Shooting was the reason for his uptick in production though, as Panik put 155 shots on goal last year. That’s 1.89 shots per game, well up from his 1.3 shots per game in 15-16 and career mark of 1.19 per game heading into last season. Shooting more often is pretty much going to increase just about anyone’s production, but when you’re a career 14% shooter, not shooting whenever you get the chance is damn near a crime.
A Look Ahead: My assumption is that Panik will stay with Toews on the top line this season but flip to the right side while Saad flanks the left. Given that Saad and Panik both play Hossa-type games, and Saad is better than Hossa was anyway (I am aware of the punishment for blasphemy, thank you), it wouldn’t be surprising to see those three gel together nicely atop the lineup. I don’t expect Hossa-like results from Panik, but he can at least embrace a bit more of a Hossa-esque role by getting into the corners and filling up the slot, allowing Saad and Toews to be themselves.
What I do want to see out Panik is even more shooting. Seriously, if you’re a 14% shooter, just find open ice and scream for the puck. I don’t want it to get to Sharp/Panarin levels of standing around and waiting for one timers, but Saad and Toews are both creative enough playmakers to get Panik in good situations to shoot frequently. If he can get two shots on goal per game, I wouldn’t be surprised if he put up 25 goals and 50 points this year. And assuming he spends more of the season on the top line and sees an increase in time on ice, he will probably have the chances to do just that.
Now, if he doesn’t end up producing very well, that wouldn’t make him invaluable to this team. He can still fit in nicely as a quasi-scorer on a two-way third line, possibly next to Anisimov. That wouldn’t be the worst outcome either. For $2.8mildo, if he can even put 15 goals on the board, it’ll be money well spent.
Statistics via Hockey Reference.
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Thankfully we’ve made it another offseason without Patrick Kane drunkenly committing crimes. Unfortunately for Kane the Blackhawks traded away his running mate of the last two seasons, and he heads into this preseason without an obvious fit for linemates. Luckily, Kane is still good enough to succeed with just about anyone that Q could think to put him with, and is also capable of elevating the play of those players around him. I just hope he isn’t giving them offseason activity ideas.
2016-17 Stats
82 GP – 34 G- 55 A
52.2 CF% – 64.4 oZS% – 35.6 dZS%
21:24 Avg. TOI
A Look Back: Despite not putting up league leading numbers again, Kane turned in yet another impressive season on the scoresheet last year, playing in all 82 games and producing more than a point per appearance in the process. His 89 points tied him for second in the NHL with Sidney Crosby, and his 34 goals had him in a three-man tie for 10th in the league. He managed 27 of those goals and a total of 64 points at 5v5, which actually wasn’t down that much from his 29 goals and 69 total points (NICE) at evens in 2015-16. The consistency there is a big encouragement, and also shows just how power play heavy his 106 total points that won him the Art Ross and Hart Trophies in 2016 were.
Kane spent most of the season with Artemi Panarin again, who saw his feet slowly started to fuse with the top of the left faceoff circle last season as he turned into the one-timer version of a bobblehead. Seriously, Kane and Panarin probably could’ve had another 5-10 points each last year if DoughBoy hadn’t been possessed the ghost of Patrick Sharp (who, based upon his play this preseason, is assuredly dead). Panarin is gone now, but he’s not necessarily missed. You’ll be hard pressed to convince me that it was Panarin who helped channel Kane’s success and not vice versa.
A Look Ahead: Obviously Kane is going to need at least one new linemate, and possibly two depending on how scrambled Anisimov’s brain is after his concussions last year. I will maintain that DeBrincat should be on Kane’s opposite wing until it happens or I die. He has the speed, vision, and creativity to slot well on a line with Kane, and they would feed into each other’s strengths just like Kane and Panarin did. Those two would be a dynamic offensive duo regardless of who their pivot is, though I’d love to see Schamltz there. As I said in my ADB preview, Schmaltz’s playmaking ability would mesh well with ADB’s scoring ability, and having a top-five NHL player to distract opponent’s would free up ice for those young guns. Kane would be a solid bet for another 60+ point season at evens, and those two would take a huge step in their development as well.
Otherwise, we might see Anisimov pivot Kane again while Patrick Sharp flanks the opposite wing. Anisimov is still a good fit as a center for Kane due to his size and ability to crash the net/shove his ass in goalies’ faces, so that part isn’t so bad. The problem is that Patrick Sharp is like 50 years old, can’t skate, and has a cardboard hip. And he’s not even the Blackhawks’ hottest player anymore. Putting him on the wing opposite Kane would be like tying a piano to the back of your Hellcat. Kane could probably still produce fine with Sharp on his wing, and he’d probably even get Sharp to score 15-20 goals if they were together long enough, but it’s not the best fit at all. Please, Joel, do not do this (he definitely will).
In terms of production, Kane has been a point per game player in all but three of his NHL seasons. I’d call it a safe bet he does it again this year. My official prediction is an 85+ point season, or at least an 85+ point pace should he get injured. Pray that doesn’t happen, though, because even with the young offensive talent the Hawks have, losing Kane would take a huge chunk out of their offensive firepower.
Statistics via Hockey Reference.
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Let’s just run through it real quickly.
-The Hawks basically rolled out the B-team, and that was generally a problem whenever Bergeron and Marchand were out against them, or Pastrnak. But I doubt we’ll see Rutta-Forsling out against lines like that in the regular season.
-Speaking of which, it was not a night Forsling is going to put on the video reel to show his kids one day.
