Baseball

New World Order: 2020 White Sox Previews – Zack Collins

By Adam Hess 1285 0

The first roster-fringe player we cover on our 2020 Sox Preview series is Zack Collins. While there is not a guarantee that Collins will make the Opening Day roster, he probably should get a good long look before the Sox decide to burn another option and send him down to AAA for however long, as he has very little left to prove in the minors. In a world without James McCann, Collins would be the obvious backup catcher, but as long as McCann is here Collins’ roster spot is in a bit of doubt. But we will touch on that. Let’s dig in

2019 MLB Stats

27 GP, .186/.307/.349, 3 HR, 12 RBI

-0.3 fWAR, -0.2 bWAR, -0.3 WARP

13.7 BB%, 38.8 K%

.285 wOBA, 77 wRC+ .656 OPS

-4 DRS, -3.1 FRAA

Last Week on Nitro: Collins spent most of 2019 in AAA, where his numbers were infinitely better than that drivel above us. I listed his MLB stats because, as I said in the open, he has almost nothing left to prove in the minors and should be an MLB player moving forward. But don’t let those rough stats from limited action as a rookie scare you off – Collins’ slash line in 88 AAA games was a much more encouraging .282/.403/.548 with 19 HR and 74 RBI, good for a .401 wOBA and 140 wRC+. Among the most encouraging aspects of Collins’ numbers at all levels of the minors and even his short MLB spell is the walk-rate and OBP, as that 13.7% he posted in the bigs last year counts as the lowest that number has been for him at any level of the minors. Collins simply does not chase bad pitching, forcing pitchers to come into the zone where he is a legitimate threat to take them deep on every pitch.

Another reason you can quite easily disregard any concern that could come from looking at those 2019 MLB stats is the way Rick Renteria used Collins when he was first called up. Despite the fact that the Sox had no one on the MLB roster who could serve as a reliable DH, Ricky kept Collins out of the everyday lineup and only had him playing sporadically every 3-to-5 days, and two of his first eight appearances (including his freakin’ MLB debut) came as nothing more than a pinch hitter. Going from an everyday impact bat in the minors to bench piece is a tough situation to be in when you’re also trying to adjust to MLB pitching. Obviously that was still when McCann was one of the Sox best hitters, but it was still poorly handled, in my opinion.

There are a few concerns about Collins’ future in the bigs, but I don’t think his 2019 should lose you any sleep.

TOO SWEET (WHOOP WHOOP): The best case scenario for Collins in 2020 is that some catcher elsewhere in MLB gets hurt and the Sox are able to trade McCann to fill that void, opening up the roster spot for Collins to walk into. There is a legitimate case to be made that Collins is a better fit for the 2020 Sox’ roster than McCann, anyway. With the presence of Jose Abreu, Edwin Encarnacion, and Yasmani Grandal, all of whom hit lefties extremely well and should never sit when the Sox are facing a lefty, McCann is kinda crowded out of the only lineup where it makes sense to play him consistently. On the flip side, Collins absolutely raked righties throughout his MiLB career and in a perfect world might even feature in a lineup vs RHP over Abreu, although now we are just dreaming.

Regardless of McCann’s presence on the roster, Collins needs to spend significant time at the MLB level in 2020, and the ideal outcome would be that he gets platooned almost exclusively into those lineups vs RHP. That would eliminate a huge weakness from Collins’ game immediately. The walk rate is far from a concern, though you definitely want to see the K-rate come crashing down. He’s never struck out at a rate lower than 24.4% in the minors, but being below 30% is all I ask. Getting him into those RHP lineups on a semi-consistent basis and bringing the K-rate down should allow him to bump that OBP up closer to .350, and if he starts putting the bat on the ball more he is going to hit very hard and very far, so the slugging percentage will be nice as well. No, I don’t give a shit about his batting average.

Lastly, an ideal 2020 sees Collins’ work with his good buddy Grandal behind the plate take him from a downright liability at the backstop to a reliable backup option. That’s not too much to ask, is it?

YOU FUCKED UP! YOU FUCKED UP!: The nightmare outcome for Collins’ 2020 season is that it ends up looking an awful lot like his 2019 did. You don’t need a hell of a lot out of a backup catcher, but when you draft a guy in the first round of the MLB draft because his best position is hitter, you need to see that hitter come through. I don’t think he will ever stop walking, but if he can’t at least make more contact he will never really get to take advantage of all his power, and he will probably need to have at least a .210 average to really let his OBP be any semblance of productive. If 2020 looks like 2019 and he stays below the Mendoza line, the walking will only be worth so much.

I don’t actually think his fielding will get worse, but if he doesn’t improve behind the plate there could be some major problems.

BAH GAWD THAT’S COLLINS’ MUSIC: I think that at some point in the season, McCann will no longer be the primary backup catcher for the White Sox and Collins will take over that mantle, either via McCann getting traded or the Sox just doing the prudent thing from a organizational future standpoint, prioritizing the young controllable player instead of the pending free agent. Collins could also end up being the backup 1B and DH, giving Ricky three different ways to work him into lineups at various times throughout the year and get him more consistent at bats.

In terms of results, I would expect Collins line to wind up more in he realm of a .220/.350/.450 kinda player, as I really believe that even getting above .200 on the average will turn Collins into a damn near elite OBP guy. I still think he will strike out too much – more than the ideal 30% mark I said in best case – and that will prevent him from getting to all of his power, but he should hit 15-20 dingers if he appears in 60+ games. Unless his defense vastly improves, it will bring his WAR metrics down, but I think he can still be worth 1.0 to 1.5 wins in a semi-regular backup role in 2020.

Previous Player Previews

Yasmani Grandal

James McCann

Baseball

New World Order: 2020 White Sox Previews – Yasmani Grandal

By Adam Hess 1309 0

We kick off our 2020 White Sox world takeover season preview series with the most exciting and probably the most impactful free agent signing by the White Sox in any of our lifetimes, Yasmani Grandal. As the first major domino of this past offsesaon to fall by signing bright and early – before Thanksgiving, even – for a club record $73-million over 4 years, Grandal was the first of many signs this winter that the White Sox are serious about winning (or at least serious about looking like they’re serious about winning) in 2020 and also are being taken seriously by big name free agents. Let’s dig into what we can expect from him this year:

2019 Stats (w/ Brewers)

.246/.380/.468, 28 HR, 77 RBI

5.2 fWAR, 2.5 bWAR, 6.1 WARP

17.2 BB%, 22.0 K%

.361 wOBA, 121 wRC+ .848 OPS

1 DRS, 20.1 FRAA, 79th-percentile framing

Last Week on Nitro: Grandal fell prey to baseball’s greedy ass ownership slow offseason problem prior to 2019, with the primary issue being the qualifying offer that the Dodgers extended to him meaning any team that signed him would have to sacrifice a draft pick for his services. That is still one of the stupidest rules in sports, but it exists and is daunting enough to some teams that it truly does scare some suitors off. Despite reports of a multi-year offer coming from the Mets, Grandal viewed that offer as below his market value (and may not want have wanted to play for the Mets, which is wholly understandable) and decided to bet on himself with a 1-year deal worth $18.25-million in Milwaukee.

The bet paid off in spades, as Grandal proved to be one of the most valuable players in baseball according to any WAR metric worth a shit – clearly what I mean is that you should just outright ignore that bWAR number above, as baseball reference has a major problem with valuing defense in their WAR, especially for catchers. He isn’t the world’s best hitter, but he is easily one of the most disciplined in the game, and the walk rate and OBP scream out as evidence. Both were among career highs for him, but you can still expect them to be incredible, but we will more to that in a moment. Overall, Grandal’s 2019 season was another strong one with numbers that were largely consistent with his overall career, and that level of consistency is what should really have you excited.

TOO SWEET (WHOOP WHOOP): The issue with dreaming on Grandal’s offense is that he’s been so damn good and so damn consistent in his career, and is 31 years old, so it’s hard to imagine it getting much better at this point. The main weakness in Grandal’s numbers throughout his career has been his unimpressive batting average, which really only the giargidiniera-soaked masses will bitch about, but in an ideal world you’d see him raise that up from a .246 last year and .241 career to something a bit closer to .260 in 2020. A good place to start would be to work that K-rate down a bit, as even in today’s game and even with his walk numbers, a 22% there is something you’d like to see drop a bit. If he can bring the strikeouts down and the batting average up, that OBP could flirt with damn near .400, and that would be downright erotic.

The real area where Grandal will be a huge upgrade for the Sox, though, is behind the dish. As I detailed in my fully-tumescent write up after the signing, while James McCann had a fine season last year, he was the worst overall framer in the AL season, while Grandal was the best in the Majors according to some publications. So overnight, the Sox go from the worst zone manager in AL to the best. On top of that, he is a well documented elite game planner and has been around some of the best pitchers in the game. Where this is going to prove invaluable is with the likes of Michael Kopech and Dylan Cease, who have some well documented control issues. Helping them improve their approach, delivery, and then stealing strikes behind the dish should serve as a huge boon, and in a best case scenario takes Cease from a struggling rookie last year to approaching his ceiling very quickly.

On top of that, Lucas Giolito is looking to take another step forward and build off a dominant 2019, and Reynaldo Lopez needs to have a bounce back year like Giolito just had. And to add one more log to the fire, looking back at Dallas Keuchel‘s career working with good and bad framers, he is far and away better with good ones (big surprise there). With combination of high-ceiling guys and reliable rotation arms. Grandal receiving all of these guys and helping the Sox rotation improve could allow them to be one of the best in baseball, and that would result in a whole lot of wins.

YOU FUCKED UP! YOU FUCKED UP!: The worst case scenario for Grandal this year is that he goes the way of the Nick Swishers and Adam Dunns of the world, falling off a cliff completely after joining the White Sox. His walk rate falls below 10%, his strikeouts go way the hell up, and all of a sudden the guy can’t tell the strike zone from the seating section formerly known as the Chris Sale K-Zone. Meantime, his framing falls apart and as such the pitching staff sucks ass.

Okay, that’s a bit dramatic. Again, he’s been so consistent in his career it’s a bit difficult to go too far down the idea of either extreme happening, though it’s certainly possible. But given his career numbers, I think the biggest concern when it comes to 2020 being a potential disappointment from Grandal is injuries derailing him. *knocks on wood*

BAH GAWD THAT’S GRANDAL’S MUSIC: At the risk of sounding like a broken record, Grandal’s consistency throughout his career has been so damn reliable that it’s hard to imagine this season being anything other than extremely similar to last year. I would expect a regression in the walk-rate and, as a result, the OBP, but his career tells both should stay around or above 13.5% and .350 respectively. Along with that he’s gonna hit more than 20 but less than 30 homers and a similar number of doubles. He’s even tossed in two triples in each of the last two years, though don’t bet your house on that.

Where I really want to focus my prediction is on the impact he will have with the pitchers. While I don’t necessarily think he will make the hugely sudden difference for Cease and Kopech to go from promising-but-inconsistent to downright dominant right away, I think we are gonna see big improvement from them, though Cease’s may be more recognizable given that he’s gonna be with the big club all year and Kopech won’t. Overall I think Grandal is going to help this rotation be one of the better units in the American League and maybe even the best in the Central. With his bat and defense, you can reasonably expect another season of Grandal being worth more than 4.5 fWAR, and I will happily take that.

Hockey

Game #56: Hawks 3, Oilers 5 – Death Knell

By Adam Hess 1649 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Ooooooh boy. Jeremy Colliton has done it this time. You want your thoughts buddy? I got your thoughts. Let’s get right into it:

LAUNCH JEREMY COLLITON TO PLUTO

– The Blackhawks failing to beat the Oilers without Connor McDavid is embarrassing, but the reality is that this truly is not on the roster of players on the ice tonight. Sure, the typical characters had their typical characteristic moments – Adam Boqvist got a little floaty in his own zone, Erik Gustafsson got caught out of position, Alex Nylander failed at competency, etc. You get it. But at this point, those things are somewhat expected, and they’re also things you can live with because none of them are true killers (well, Gustafsson’s shit can be, but it wasn’t tonight). No, this all comes back to Jeremy Colliton. What is about to follow is my somewhat raw feelings on this sad excuse for a hockey coach.

– Let’s start with Jeremy Ventura’s first mistake of the day, which was healthy scratching Dylan Strome. In a game that the Hawks needed to win to keep themselves in a spitting distance of the playoff hunt, he scratches one of his three best centers to play Alex Nylander *and* Matthew Highmore. Because when you have the chance to scratch a guy with 30 points in 44 games this season in favor of two guys who don’t know which net they’re supposed to be shooting at, you gotta do it. This man couldn’t coach a high school team.

– Now let’s get to the power play, which was complete ass cheeks for the second straight game that also resulted in an embarrassing loss in Western Canada when you needed a win. And hey, I am no scientist, but maybe the fact that Zack Smith and Erik Gustafsson are on your PP1 while Alex DeBrincat and Adam Boqvist are on your PP2 has something to do with that? Maybe because that PP1 with Smith and Gustafsson also features three other lefties so you’re cutting yourself off from a whole fucking side of the ice? Who’s to say really? Certainly not Coach Mayor Pete. This man’s couldn’t fight his way out of a wet paper sack with scissors.

– And then there was just the flat out lack of preparation. The Oilers took the lead in this game just 73 seconds after puck drop, and that was because the only time the puck left their offensive zone after puck drop was when the Oilers made an errant pass and sent it back down the ice themselves. It had nothing to do with the Blackhawks generating any sort of defensive pressure or offensive transition. And that is because Jeremy Smooth Brain’s system is such a mess that even the McDavid-less Oilers know that all you need to do is skate fast around them and the system collapses because you have forwards deep and defensemen near the blue line. Seriously, the Oilers scored their goal on a transition that started with Alex DeBrincat getting burned at the point of the Hawks offensive zone (not that they were doing anything worthwhile in there) because he was the last man recovering after being behind the net defending. That is a system that makes absolutely no fucking sense, constructed by a man who’s brain is so smooth you could bowl with it.

The players might share a small part of the burden for not just coming out with a sense of urgency in a game that was clearly must win, but it’s still the coach’s job to motivate his team to get up for these kinds of games. To convince them that they are important and why. And he clearly didn’t because he clearly cannot. He is a dead man walking.

– The only player in this game who does get a portion of the blame though is Robin Lehner, who had a rough first 40 with some truly mind-numbingly stupid moments. Playing goalie is very hard, and Lehner has been fine this year so I don’t want to make more of it than is necessary, but there were a few times where he thought he had the puck and he just didn’t, and it cost the Hawks at least one goal if not more. Again, it doesn’t need to be a big issue, but it was a problem tonight.

– Hawks go next tomorrow in Vancouver, and lucky me, I don’t have to watch that one.

– Fire Jeremy Colliton!!!!

Hockey

Game #55: Hawks 2, Jets 5 – Despite There Being No Airport in Winnipeg, The Blackhawks Crashed

By Adam Hess 1661 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

You guys, I’m telling you, I keep trying not to be too cynical/skeptical about this Blackhawks team. I keep wanting their little runs of success to be legitimate, wanting Coach Cool Youth Pastor’s system to finally be effective, wanting the blue line to overperform their on-paper skill, wanting Erik Gustafsson to just do one thing right in his own zone. And yet every time I think I may be getting what I want, the other shoe drops. Well tonight, that other shoe crashed down from the sky and landed hard in Winnipeg, though obviously not at an airport, because they don’t have one of those there. Let’s just get this over with:

THE BULLETS (UNFORTUNATELY NOT THE KIND THAT COULD LODGE THEMSELVES IN MY BRAIN WHEN I”M WATCHING THE HAWKS)

– First and foremost, my biggest takeaway from tonight is this – I cannot remember the last time I saw Alex DeBrincat have a game this bad. There just were very few moments where he really stood out for doing anything extremely well, and he had far too many there he stood out for doing something extremely bad. Two of those in particular led to really dangerous scoring chances for the Jets, one of which resulted in them scoring a shorthanded goal. In a season full of bad luck and disappointment that hasn’t always been his fault, a night like this from Top Cat was tough to watch.

– Moving on, this was something of a wild ride to watch, because it almost felt like two different hockey games. The Blackhawks absolutely dominated the first period, to the tun of a 70.59 CF% at 5v5!!! That is NOT a typo! Things were looking up after that period, folks! And then that period ended, and then second period started, and then the Hawks got absolutely shellacked in possession in the second period, with a pathetic 41.67 CF%, and then again in the third with a 45.45%. They were getting overwhelmed constantly, and while they were able to generate 15 scoring chances in those two periods, only 5 of those were considered high danger. Otherwise, it just felt like the Jets were completely dominating the Hawks in the final 40, and the results obviously reflect that.

– On top of the lackluster performances in the final 40 minutes, the Hawks gave the Jets entirely too many power plays tonight. You simply cannot give an opponent 6 tries with the extra man and expect to win a game, especially on the road. And *especially* when your own power play is running around with its pants around its ankles.

– Yet again, we remind you that Corey Crawford is not appreciated nearly enough. While the Hawks really only lost this one by one goal (the Jets added two empty netters) they could’ve easily been down by three or four if not for the play of Crow, particularly in the second period. This man deserves to be treated as a legend by this organization and this fanbase.

– One more thing I am repeating for the umpteenth time: launch Erik Gustafsson into the sun!

– Hawks go next on Tuesday, against Connor McDavid and the Oilers, and guess what folks you have to deal with me for that one too. See ya then.

Hockey

Game #49: Hawks 6, Leafs 2 – Don’t Tease Me If You’re Not Gonna Please Me

By Adam Hess 1729 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

These kinds of wins from the Hawks are always simultaneously thrilling and frustrating. Obviously, skullfucking any opponent that is so much better than the Hawks on paper like the Leafs appear to be feels incredible, but then you check some of the metrics on the game and they seem to tell something of a different story. On top of that, it makes you wonder where performances like these are the rest of the season. But I also don’t want to complain about awesome wins like this. Let’s do it:

THE BULLETS

– His surge of late has been so sudden and seemingly out of nowhere, that I am still consistently in shock about Dominik Kubalik coming on so strong recently. Before the season I felt like he would be a solid middle-six contributor, but recently he really seems to be hitting a stride and showing that he might be a bit more than that. His second goal tonight, batting the puck of thin air and into the net, was some incredible shit and personally I would like to see if he can play right field on the South Side with contact skills like that. Hopefully this isn’t just a scoring surge that will peter out and really is the result of a strong coming-out campaign.

– On top of that, Jonathan Toews is continuing his Fuck You Tour from last year, adding another four points tonight that give him 43 total in 49 games this year. His first goal was literally just him telling the entire Leafs roster to eat his dust, going full on Fuck It mode and undressing Freddy Andersen, and his second was him doing that *again* for good measure. Don’t let any dumb motherfuckers tell you that he is not good at hockey, and if people do tell you that, call them a dumb motherfucker.

– Patrick Kane added himself a point to get within one of 1000 on his career, but overall he had something of a rough night. It felt to me like he was pressing really hard to get that 1000th point once he got 999, but through that pressing he was making a lot of bad plays in the offensive zone. I hope he gets that point ASAP – preferably though a goal – so we don’t have to deal with that kinda stuff much more going forward.

– William Nylander was far and away the best player for the Leafs tonight while Alex was basically unnoticeable, which is further reminder that the Blackhawks trading Henri Jokiharju for the wrong Nylander.

– Andersen had such a bad night, and the Leafs have had such a strange up-and-down goaltending season, that Geek Boy Dubas should not let Robin Lehner leave town if he knows what is good for his roster. Just give the Hawks your first round pick and move on with the season.

– Hawks go again tomorrow, hosting the Jets. Until then.

Hockey

Game #43 – Wings 2, Hawks 4 – Better Than The Alternative

By Adam Hess 1766 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Even in the midst of a shitty Hawks season and an even shittier Red Wings season (not that those are anything new in those parts), it still feels nice to watch the Hawks get a nice win over that trash heap franchise from that trash heap city. I just wish this win hadn’t felt so… itchy. Let’s get into it:

DETROIT SUCKS

so do the Hawks, just a little less

-As good as the win over the Wings felt, it took the Blackhawks way too damn long to realize that they were playing an AHL team, and react accordingly. They were straight up asleep for the first period and a decent bit of the second period as well – despite having 55% of the shot attempts, they still lost the scoring chance battle 9-6 and the high danger chance battle 3-1 in the first. While they started playing in the second period, it wasn’t until they were able to quickly strike back-to-back goals with just shy of five minutes left in that frame that it really felt like the Hawks came to life. Not the most encouraging  play against an opponent like this, but in the end getting the win is still much better than it would’ve looked had they lost to this Detroit group, so I won’t bitch too much.

– Alex DeBrincat was a gosh darned force tonight, with straight up dominant metrics across the board. He posted a 68.75 CF%, 70 FF%, 71.6 xGF%, and a 55.56 SCF% (scoring chances for). He also made two great plays in the leadup to Strome’s opening goal for the Hawks, first to get the puck of the Hawks’ defensive zone onto the rush, then winning the puck off the boards behind the net and then feed Strome in the slot. The results have unfortunately not always been there for Top Cat this year, but he’s been playing solid so if he keeps up more games like this (easier said than done) he will start to see the production rise.

– Congratulations to Dylan Sikura on his first NHL goal. It only took him more than half a regular season’s worth of games to get it.

I kid, I kid. Sikura hasn’t exactly bloomed in the way that I think many of us would have preferred He didn’t get a ton of ice time tonight (just 9:39 at evens) but made the most of it with a nice 56.25 CF% and adding that goal. Just build off of it moving forward and please don’t make us wait another 43 games for the next one.

– Adam Boqvist fucks. He is so offensively skilled and creative, he just needs to tap more into those abilities both as a PP QB and at 5v5 play. He has all of the tools to be a true force and produce at a 1D level in the NHL. His goal tonight was a thing of pure beauty and I look forward to many more like it coming.

– It cannot be overstated – God Bless Corey Crawford. While the team was figuring their shit out tonight, Crow was solid and kept them much more in it than they should’ve been for a while, including an awesome series of saves after a really rough play in front of the net by Duncan Keith. May Crow live on in our hearts forever.

– Blackhawks go next on Tuesday against the Flames.

Hockey

Game #35: Avalanche 4, Hawks 1: Same Old Story, Same Old Stink

By Adam Hess 1675 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

The Blackhawks still suck, the Avs are still good. I spent most of this day traveling so and then I had to watch this ordeal so let’s just get this done:

A Preface – the above photo does not at all depict how this game went, but it was too funny of a picture to not use. You go, Boqvist.

FIRE JEREMY COLLITON

– As Sam wrote brilliantly morning, the Blackhawks should not be this bad. They have everything that you would think you need to compete in the modern NHL – solid goaltending, high-level scorers, good enough forward depth. But they definitely lack big talent on the blue line in a big way, as we knew they would, and the structure of this team and the style of play expose them to getting their asses completely waxed by teams like the Avalanche that have all of those same things in spades along with a fuckton more speed. Personally I am kinda tired of watching the Hawks play this team because it’s always embarrassing like this. What more am I to say?

– Nathan MacKinnon should be illegal. The man is far too good and yet in some ways he might even still be underrated. Which is really weird cuz people know he’s fucking good. But his speed, shot, puck handling, vision, everything is just insane. His goal tonight, the Avs second and the eventual GWG, came after he brilliantly corralled a terrible pass at his feet, and then just zoomed past the Hawks defense and fired an unstoppable shot over Crawford’s blocker. Police, I’d like to report a murder.

– The Hawks were truly lucky to escape the first period of this one tied – which is a theme that does not seem to be stopping, at least when I watch and am recap duty. The Hawks got so roundly skullfucked from a possession standpoint in the first period that even after posting CF%’s of 58 and 61 in the second and third period respectively, they still got beat in that regard 51%-49% on the night. I guess that is what happens when you let a team hang a 67.5% on you in the first.

– The Avs had 29 scoring chances in this game. That’s essentially one every two minutes. That is just absurdly bad. Thank God for Corey Crawford. The poor bastard.

– Fire Jeremy Colliton.

– Hawks go again tomorrow against the Jets. Until then.

Baseball

Everyone’s Talking About Some Guy… Who Cares? – White Sox Trade for Nomar Mazara

By Adam Hess 1517 0

There was once a time when acquiring Nomar Mazara from the Texas Rangers would have been a move that inspired excitement and a great deal of hope in White Sox fans. Back in the winter of 2016, Mazara was the rumored headliner of the Rangers’ offered package for Chris Sale. What the Sox did get for Sale ended up being much better than anything the Rangers had to offer, both at the time and in overall MLB results since then as Yoan Moncada has turned into a star and Mazara has been well….. not good.

So you will be more than forgiven if the Sox acquiring Mazara Tuesday Night, in exchange for Steele Walker, is no longer an exciting move for you. Despite being a former top-25 prospect with huge power that many thought would blossom into a middle-of-the-lineup force, Mazara has struggled in the major leagues, never really improving much from his rookie numbers that were considered promising at the time, but when you post the same numbers for four seasons in a row you go from promising to frustrating very quickly. And that is what happened to Mazara and the Rangers, as it appears Texas was just done with waiting for the potential to deliver.

As you can tell by my headline, I don’t think much of this move – meaning I do not love it or hate it. It’s basically, as our friend and fellow FFUD Sox writer AJ put it, a giant shrug emoji of a trade.

It’s somewhat cliche to say that former top prospects who have disappointed early in their careers “still have potential,” but that cliche feels very applicable and appropriate in Mazara’s case. Like I said, his rookie year was promising with a .266/.320/.419 slash line and a 91 wRC+, but he has not improved significantly since. The last two years he has posted wRC+ of 95 and 94 respectfully, though 2019 did see home post a career high SLG% of .469.

Pretty much all of his offensive value comes against RHP, where for his career he’s barely inched above average (103 wRC+) but 2019 was one of the best of his career in that regard with an .844 OPS and 110 wRC+ against righties. Please don’t ask me about his numbers against LHP, and save yourself the trouble/stress and just don’t look them up. Just trust me when I tell you they are bad, and Mazara will be best used in a platoon.

Which is where the major question mark from this move comes in – is this all the White Sox plan to do to address right field? If it is, this could end up being something of a bad move – it’s the kind of flier they should’ve been taking on players the last three years rather than going into a 2020 campaign where they are supposedly trying to compete. However, if they don’t dust their hands and call it a day, and try to go out and find a genuine platoon partner for him, Mazara could prove to be something of a savvy addition. You can do a lot worse than a guy who produces like he does against RHP (which the Sox struggled with in 2019) as a platoon OF and bench piece. Asking him to do more than that could be a fool’s errand.

The cost is very reasonable, as while Walker was the #6 prospect on MLB Pipeline’s list for the Sox system, they’re the only publication with him that high. His ceiling has always been limited, and while Mazara has struggled to hit in MLB, Walker is just 14 months younger and struggled in high-A last year. While I am a fan of Walker and think he could be an MLB regular some day, his age and ceiling compared to Mazara’s make this is a very worthwhile move.

So while this is hardly an exciting move, it doesn’t strike me as one to be upset about in any way.  The Sox appear to believe they see something in Mazara, both in the analytics and in his tools, that leads them to believe they can fix him. New hitting coach Frank Menechino is a preacher of a more patient approach and an analytics advocate, which is what made his hiring a good one and may provide a sliver of hope that the Sox can indeed help Mazara reach his ceiling. It’s not like a change of scenery for a mid-20’s former top prospect with a lot of power being a launching point has not happened before (hello, J.D. Martinez). I am hoping this won’t be the only move they make to address RF, because there are some good platoon options out there in free agency (I will take Domingo Santana, please) but until we know for sure what the Sox’ overall plans are for Mazara, this move strikes me as nothing more than an upside play that makes sense for the Sox to try.

Everything Else

Game #30 – Coyotes 3, Hawks 3 (Coyotes get to face Robin Lehner in shootout) – The Air Is So Cold And Numb

By Adam Hess 1651 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

The more of these recaps I do, the less I want to do them. Each game just gets more and more incredible, in a bad way. I almost feel like I, and perhaps Blackhawks Twitter/Bloggers in general, are out of things to say about this team that aren’t just the same old dead horses that have already been beaten time and time again. Shall we?

BULLETS

– For the second straight game that I have recapped (the last being the Bruins game on Thursday) the Blackhawks found themselves with a multi-goal lead after the first period despite the fact that they were the inferior team. The Hawks got dominated in attemps with a measely 42.11 CF%, and they were even worse in terms of unblocked attempts with a 39.29 FF%. They escaped with a 3-1 lead in large part due to a slightly-lucky-but-very-good play by Jonathan Toews early on, a good shot by Alex DeBrincat who got a goal in a third straight game, and a nice play by Dominik Kubalik. To their credit, they did have a 5-4 advantage in High Danger chances despite getting their clocks cleaned in possession.

– I am continually baffled by the audacity of the Blackhawks to put their penalty kill unit out so often despite the fact that it is so damn bad. They took six penalties tonight, and in the end it cost them as two of the Coyotes three goals came with the man advantage. Personally, I am shocked that the Hawks penalty kill did not hold up on a night they iced a paper mache defensive corps.

– Pairing off that last one, just to give you an idea of how impactful the Hawks penalties were tonight: The second period was played exclusive at 5v5 or with the Hawks on the PK (save for four seconds of a Hawks power play, which barely counts). At 5v5, the Hawks recorded a CF% of 68! That is incredible! But they only got to spend 13 minutes and change at 5v5, and spent the other 6-plus minutes on the PK, where they gave up two goals and allowed Glendale to tie it.

– The third period was worse than the first, which is kinda nuts. The Coyotes forward group is not very good! Their best forward is probably Nick Schmaltz, who I like and was a fan of in Chicago, but he’s not an elite talent in anyway. But the Hawks only managed a 34.48 CF% at evens in the third, and in the end they were outshot 47-29 by that group. That is just pathetic to be quite frank with you.

– Erik Gustafsson being on the powerplay in overtime is insulting to my intelligence and the intlligence of my grandchildren’s grandchildren. Fuck off.

– Hawks go next on Tuesday against Vegas. Until then.

Baseball

Use Me For Your Kingdom’s Cause

By Adam Hess 1269 0

If the early signing of Yasmani Grandal gave you a perhaps unrealistic amount of naive faith that things might be changing for the White Sox when it comes to the free agent market, Zack Wheeler signing in Philadelphia may have brought you crashing back to earth. If you feel as though you match this description, you are not alone. Despite my very best efforts, even after the Grandal signing, to not get my hopes and expectations up for the White Sox this offseason to avoid crushing disappointment like I felt in late February after the Machado ordeal, I started to truly believe the Sox were going to sign Wheeler, both because of my own naiveté and because of some info I was being relayed by folks I know with more connections than I have (which is zero).

The irony of my disappointment with the Sox losing on Wheeler  is that when I saw the contract he signed he signed in Philly was for 5 years and $118-million, my initial reaction was that I was very fine with the White Sox not giving him that kind of money. Then it came out that the Sox actually offered Wheeler more than what he took in the city of Brotherly Love, and he took John Middleton‘s money over Jerry Reinsdorf’s because his fiance is from Jersey. Poor guy.

We can argue until we are blue in the face about what Wheeler’s value is, and after two strong seasons in a row and being worth 4+ fWAR in each of those years before hitting FA at 29, it’s hard to argue that he isn’t worth the money he got, but the injury history and lack of a track record before these last two years was reason enough to be a little gunshy with him. I’m not personally convinced he is a $24M pitcher, let alone the $25M guy the Sox apparently valued him at (Bob Nightengale, who is Kenny William’s media mouthpiece, reported the Sox offered Wheeler 5/$125M), but my opinion is worth jack and shit in this regard. For what it’s worth, FanGraph’s “player value” projections have Wheelers 2018 and 2019 being worth more than $30M each, but I also don’t trust that teams use the same kind of $/WAR valuations that FG does across the board.

In the end, it’s hard to be mad at the White Sox for not getting Wheeler here. They offered him a full million-plus more per year than he accepted, it just wasn’t enough to convince him to pick money over the happiness of his fiance. But based on some of the reports that came out after the fact, like the one from Jon Heyman below, I am a bit suspicious as to whether or not the Sox ever had a real chance.

Obviously we can’t know for sure if my suspicion is true, and I can only go off aforementioned reports and “info” I’ve gotten, but it feels to me like the Sox got used here. For weeks, most of the reports regarding Wheeler tied him to the Sox, Twins, Reds, and/or Rangers, none of which are east coast teams. Then all of the sudden Wednesday morning the Phillies are involved, then not long after that the Rangers aren’t, and then a few hours later Wheeler signs in Philly and we’re told it’s because of his girl and because he preferred east coast. If the Sox offer was indeed 5-years for $125M and he ended up taking less in Philly because it’s closer to where he wanted to be, that feels an awful lot like the Sox were just an ends to a means. “Look, Phillies, I want to come there, but I can get a lot more money in Chicago.” Acceptable offer from preferred location roles in, job done.

Basically what I am getting at here is that, despite White Sox Twitter’s best efforts to turn the White Sox offering a free agent the most money he was offered into a bad thing, because some of these motherfuckers are miserable just to be miserable, the Sox did all they could. Wheeler just viewed them as a backup option if more preferred destinations didn’t get involved with good offers.

Now, if you want to place blame on the Sox for anything in this situation, it has to be that last part. Being a backup option for top tier free agents is clearly not ideal, but it’s a bed the Sox put themselves in. While it’s tough to accept as a fan, the Sox clearly have something of a bad reputation in the market place, and it’s not as if they haven’t earned it. Even with signing Yasmani Grandal to a franchise record contract, they still have a lot more to prove both the free agents and their own fans when it comes to playing in this market, because that record deal was still just $73M, which is relatively routine in today’s MLB. Now sure, the Sox offered Machado $250M and Wheeler $125M, but until those offers go from hypothetical to actual pen on paper, there isn’t a great deal of solace that the team can expect folks to take in them, and it’d be a bit naive of the Sox to assume that players should want to come here just because they’re offering fair market money.

That reputation they have as a cheap organization, mostly among fans, is evident every time they miss on a free agent they clearly wanted. As the reports came out about the Sox offer to Wheeler being more, it was met with various reactions of “of course they’re saying this” or my personal favorite “no one works harder to tell you they just missed than the Sox.” And while being speculative of those reports and/or mocking the Sox for working so hard to to get said reports out there quickly is very fair, I again find it hard to blame the Sox for doing so. If they don’t work to make sure that people know they actually made a fair offer to Wheeler, and one that was actually more than he took, then the hive-mind, assume-the-worst reaction from baseball fans and Sox fans especially would run rampant. Until they shake the reputation, they do admittedly have to run this kind of damage control.

The baseball world writ large seems to recognize that the Sox have the a young core in place that could be the makings of something special. But in the same sense as the contract offers only being significant once they come to fruition, this solid young core may have to deliver a bit more in terms of overall team results before it can serve as the kind of team that other players look at and want to be a part of for reasons other than money. Yasmani Grandal saying he likes what the team is building toward when he signed may help that out a bit, but it clearly has not accomplished it to any extent Rick Hahn and company would hope for. Until the Sox can find someone to take their 9-digit contract offers and/or put an actually competitive team on the field when they mean to, their earned reputation will proceed them.