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Game #7 – Hawks vs. Blue Jackets Spotlight: Jarmo’s Crucible

By Sam Fels 1636 0

It’s hard to think of a GM more in a jam than Jarmo Kekalainen. Sure, we’ve seen GMs and teams play chicken with a free agent to be in the past. But two? And the two best players on a team? That’s rare indeed. And the fortunes of the Blue Jackets for the next few years pretty much hang in the balance.

To review: both Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky are going to be unrestricted free agents when this season ends. Panarin has made it quite clear that he’s not coming back, as it seems his destiny to be an overpaid Ranger or Panther. Bobrovsky has at least talked to the Jackets about an extension, but those talks have gone nowhere.

We’ll take the case of Bobrovsky first. He’a two-time Vezina winner, and no goalie with that kind of track record has hit the open market in recent memory. As of right now, the highest paid goalie in the league is Carey Price at $10.5 million. Price only has one Vezina, and has only done slightly better than Bobrovsky in the playoffs. Price has appeared in one conference final, never a Stanley Cup Final, and the Habs have basically been early-round chum for anyone they’ve run across. Bobrovsky’s agent could look at that $10.5 figure and go from there, and we mean go up.

Complicating matters even more for the Jackets is while they will gain the space of Panarin’s $6 million salary on the cap, they also have to pay Zach Werenski and Ryan Murray. That’s certainly going to be more than $6 million. The Jackets only have $5 million in space now as it is. It’s hard to identify what they can jettison to create more space. Nick Foligno? He’s the captain. Cam Atkinson might be the only top line forward they have after Panarin’s saunter to the door.

Which makes you wonder if they can afford to lose Bobrovsky at all. Goalies are almost certainly criminally underpaid considering their worth, and the Jackets offense may need some serious propping up once Panarin has bid adieu.

The other problem is that Bobrovsky’s appearances in the playoffs haven’t exactly been gleaming. The Jackets have never seen the second round. Bob’s playoff record in Columbus is a .898 SV% and 3.37 GAA. Now, to be sure, in two of those series the Jackets were far overmatched by the Penguins. You could argue they were by the Capitals last year, but they took the first two games in DC. And then Bob spent the next four games chucking up a toad. But a goalie is a playoff dog until he isn’t, and then what?

You don’t find another Bobrovsky on the market or in the system. And you don’t go anywhere without a goalie. Yes, he’s 30, but the aging curve for goalies is longer than skaters. He’s probably got four or five good years left. If this is the Jackets’ window, aren’t you closing it by losing him?

Panarin’s case is different. He’s gone. There’s almost no indication he’ll ever consider staying in Ohio. So logic would dictate that you ship him out for what you can get at the deadline. But it’s not that simple. The Jackets aren’t rebuilding, and you never see player-for-player deals at the deadline. They’re at least quite rare. Things will change, but there are contending teams who could use a dynamic scoring winger. Maybe more will develop. But what do those teams have to give up off the roster? The Jackets are set at top pairing with Werenski and Seth Jones. They like Nutivaara and Ryan Murray beyond that. Could they find another goalie in return for Panarin? Nearly impossible you’d think.

Overriding both of these is that the Jackets have to win, and soon. This is a fanbase aching for success, and if it sees its two most accomplished players blast noogies for nothing and without so much as a playoff series win, you’d have a tough time convincing all of them the Jackets can build a long-term winner.

It may come down to how likely  Jarmo thinks it is for  the Jackets to get out of the division. The Penguins could be had if Matt Murray never finds the form of his first two years. The Capitals have gotten a touch older and are still the squad that needed just about everything to go right last spring. The Rangers and Islanders aren’t a concern. The Devils and Flyers really could be anything. The Metro is open.

Maybe you take your run at a conference final and reset in the summer. But the Jackets don’t have a ton of cap space to do so.

We don’t have any answers. Jarmo might not either.

 

Game #7 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Game #7 – Hawks vs. Blue Jackets Q&A: Alison Lukan Of The Athletic

By Sam Fels 1674 0

Alison covers the Jackets for The Athletic. You can follow her on Twitter @AlisonL.

Let’s get the big one out of the way. There’s just no way the Jackets can win with this Panarin and Bobrovsky situation, right? Is the hope that a long playoff run might convince them to stay? Or is it something of a foregone conclusion they’re both headed for the exit and the Jackets are just going to take a run with them while they can?

These are the questions that will haunt the team all season until there is a resolution. Both players are potentially big losses but for different reasons so let me address each player in kind. First, Panarin has expressed a desire to be elsewhere. He hasn’t articulated anything he doesn’t like about Columbus or the organization but he prefers to be somewhere else. Some reports have that “somewhere else” to be a big city, possibly near water. So, if that’s the case, you have to balance seeing if the player changes his mind about wanting to be in Columbus long term with the need to move him to get any possible kind of return. This is tricky because the Jackets are just starting their window of “going for it” so getting just draft picks or futures in return wouldn’t be ideal – but it’s hard to get a “play now” guy in trade when Panarin is potentially just a rental. It’s also hard when teams know they may only need to wait to get him in July for nothing other than what the sign him to contractually.
As for Bobrovsky, it’s a slightly different scenario. The player and the organization have had contentious negotiations in the past, and this is a two-time Vezina winner who surely wants big-time money (and term of course). The organization doesn’t yet know for sure that Bobrovsky is as strong in post-season play (although that certainly isn’t only a Bobrovsky question), and the goaltender turned 30 this year, so how much of your overall salary do you invest for possibly eight years? Bobrovsky also has a no-trade clause in his current contract.
So to summarize, I think it’s more likely that Bobrovsky finishes out the season as a Blue Jacket. There’s a “chance’ one or both stay past this season, but from an asset management perspective, without a change of heart, I don’t know that you can lose both for nothing, so Panarin would likely be moved.
How big of a miss is Seth Jones?
There’s a reason Jones was an All-Star and in the Norris conversation last year (and should be this year, in my opinion). Jones is smart, athletic, and responsible in all areas of the ice. That means he is very missed and his absence has highlighted the growth that Zach Werenski has in front of him defensively. His absence also shows up as a strain on the remaining defensemen both in terms of big minutes and two-way play. The good news is that Jones is now three weeks into an estimated 4-6 week recovery period.
Markus Nutivaara is a name you don’t hear much outside of Ohio (and no one can spell without looking), but the Jackets seem pretty high on him. Why’s that?
“Nuti” as he’s called, is a hidden gem, in my opinion. This is a seventh-round pick who couldn’t even make the top teams in the leagues back in Finland but one who has proven to be a perfect fit for Tortorella’s offensive defenseman (or “rover”) style. He is confident and not afraid to jump into play in the offensive zone. Adding to that, Nuti has improved year over year and has found a highly complimentary partner in Ryan Murray. When Jones is healthy, with Nuti and Murray, you have two defensive pairings that are solid defensively and quite lethal offensively also.
Pierre-Luc Dubois and his extraneous first name put up 49 points in his rookie year last year. Should we expect a major leap this term?
I don’t expect a massive leap, but only because his rookie year was so strong. Also, PLD plays with Panarin so any change in the status of that player obviously impacts Dubois’ ability to produce. What I do expect to see is improvement in play in the corners and winning battles – these are things the centerman worked on this off-season.  He remains the Jackets’ 1C right now.
The Metro Division isn’t as tough as it might seem on the surface, with the Caps and Pens aging, the Flyers unable to get out their own way, and the Rangers and Islanders rebuilding. Can the Jackets actually get out of it in the spring? Would that be enough?
This is a team that needs to start making an impact in the post-season. They will likely get there, but now, as the cliche goes, it’s really what happens there that matters.

 

Game #7 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

You Share The Same Fate As The People You Hate – ’18-’19 Team Previews: Columbus Blue Jackets

By Matt McClure 2016 0

It remains a mystery what purpose exactly the Columbus Blue Jackets serve in the league, though now their ineptitude proved to be a catalyst in propelling the perennially underachieving Washington Capitals to their first ever Stanley Cup victory after going up two games to none in Washington and proceeding to lose four straight in the first round. It takes a special kind of pants shitting to have made these Caps look like the killers they always should have been, and based on their relative stasis in the off season, that trend appears to primed to continue.

’17-’18: 45W-30L-7OT 97PTS 242GF 230GA 17.2%PP 76.2%PK 51.49%CF 7.44%SH .9283%SV

Goaltending: There is little doubt that Sergei Bobrovsky is the pillar of anything the Jackets hope to accomplish and has been since he came over from the perpetually goaltending challenged Flyers for a 2nd round pick, having won two Vezina Trophies and four all star games while the Flyers still have a handful of themselves in the crease. Bob’s numbers took a slight step back from his 16-17 Vezina campaign, dropping 10 points overall from .931 to ONLY .921, while still being unimpeachable at evens with a .935 from a .938 the year prior. The big drop was in his shorthanded save percentage, dropping 60 points from .892 to a far more pedestrian .831, by far his lowest in Columbus. But all things being equal, there’s no reason to expect much deviation from Bob this year provided he stays healthy, which he has the past two years, playing 128 of 164 total games. In an ideal world, a true #1 goalie should play somewhere in the neighborhood of 55 games a year to avoid overworking, as Bobrovsky’s numbers in April have a precipitous dropoff. In the series against the Caps he sported only a .900 even over those 6 games, which is actually well ABOVE his post season average of .891, and that simply will not cut it, particularly behind a team that isn’t particularly dynamic offensively or behind the bench. Joonas Korpisalo is slated to back up Bobrovsky once again, and his .897 in 17 starts last year is certainly less than inspiring. If he can’t provide even replacement-backup-level netminding, Bobrovsky’s workload will stay at what it’s been and the Jackets will once again meet a similar fate unless some outside help is brought in.

Defense: Seth Jones is an absolute monster, and the time his nigh for his ascension into the Norris conversation annually. Jones will ONLY be 24 at the beginning of next month, and last season put up 16 goals, 41 assists, and a 54.1% possession share all while facing the toughest competition and zone starts available to him. He had 7 goals and 17 assists on the Jackets’ power play, which had greatly declined from the year previous. There is nothing he cannot do from the back end, plain and simple. Likewise, while not as defensively stout, Zach Werenski is a play-driving machine from the Jackets’ blue line, and though his scoring numbers were down from his fantastic rookie season, that was more of a function of power play production, where his assist totals dropped, and that can end up being circumstatial. Werenski put more shots on net and shot a higher percentage than he did from his rookie year, an exceptional 7.7% from the point. The problem is that these two spent 90% of their time together (only 142 of Jones’ 1387 even strength minutes were away from Werenski), and the only times they were split up were seemingly late game defensive zone draws where Werenski couldn’t be trusted to protect a lead. Behind these two is a complete bum squad, with David Savard running out of position, Ryan Murray never making good on his first round pedigree, and some things named Dean Kukan and Markus Nutivaara managing to take up $3.4 mildo of cap space. If Torts were somehow able to split up Werenski and Jones and not a) lose Jones’ offense covering for a dipshit partner, or b) have anyone else capable of playing free safety for Werenski to not give up as much as he produces, they’d have a solid grouping here. But as things currently sit it’s extremely top heavy and can be exploited by any coach with two functioning synapses and last change.

Forwards: Artemi Panarin‘s first season in Columbus went better than this outlet certainly expected, with him going a point per game (27G, 55A) despite not having a top end playmaker to get him the puck. But Panarin plays some of the most sheltered minutes in the league, almost exclusively starting in the offensive zone, and that can handicap a coach without having the center depth to get granular with who takes what faceoffs where. That’s not to say that Alex Wennberg and P-L Dubois are bad players, they aren’t, but they certainly aren’t going to maximize what a bad shot maker like Panarin can do, at least not yet. And Panarin is now in a walk year with his 2 year bridge deal at $6 million per coming to term, and the fact that he doesn’t have an extension yet doesn’t speak highly of his chances of remaining in Columbus. Panarin will likely command around $10 million a year, and with Jarmo wrapping up $11.3 mildo in Nick Foligno and Brandon Dubinsky for the next three years, it doesn’t speak highly to sound asset management. Cam Atkinson is a consistent 25-30 goal scorer in his own right, and he’s locked in at $5.875 per year, but he’ll also be 35 when his paper is up. This is a grouping still not sure of what it wants to be despite having some fairly useful parts.

Outlook:  Because John Tortorella is a goddamn cave man with regard to his coaching philosophy and techniques in 2018, it will always handicap his team slightly, but in his defense he’s working with a roster that doesn’t have a consistent thesis statement defining its construction. This team has top end talent in a few spots, but it’s not necessarily complimentary to the other constituent parts of the roster. As a result, a wild card bid and a first round out is once again about what to expect out of this team, and if they flounder out of the gate or Bobrovsky gets hurt early, the trade market for Panarin could heat up in a hurry and offer them a chance to re-think this grouping, though Jarmo as a GM hasn’t shown much consistency in being able to properly augment his team either. The Jackets are in Hockey Hell and there’s no clear path at the moment to escape it.

 

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You Get What Anyone Gets: Saying Goodbye To The Columbus Blue Jackets

By Sam Fels 2043 0

Since the NHL was measured in A.L. years (After Lockout ’04-’05), there are only three teams that have never won a playoff series. One is the Toronto Maple Leafs, you may have heard about them. One is the Florida Panthers. You probably haven’t heard about them, but I assure you they exist. And the other is the Columbus Blue Jackets. That will continue for another year, as the Jackets actually found a way to make the Washington Capitals look mentally strong. Perhaps they will be given an award for this, or certainly a commemoration of some kind, because they are the first to do so.

And looking over the entire history of the Jackets, this very well might be the only accomplishment you ever remember. Their other claim to fame is that they were the throw-in for the league to placate the Red Wings and move them to the Eastern Conference, which they’d only been bitching about for a decade and a half (and perhaps knew it was the only way they could maintain their then-pointless playoff streak). Essentially, the Jackets are the first team to be the “Player To Be Named Later.”

And really, that’s it.

The Jackets have strung together two good regular seasons, though both have been of the “hockey weird” variety. Last year it was a power play and Bobrovsky combining to see them eclipse 100 points. This year it was Bobrovsky and eventually the power play, though more sustainable success at evens as well. And it got them 100 points. And what it got us was a feeling that 100 points for a team doesn’t really mean anything at all.

What must be so infuriating for the Jackets is that they actually did a lot of stuff right this year, and it still doesn’t matter. They figured out Brandon Dubinsky sucks and has for a very long time. He barely played 10 minutes per game towards the end. They concluded that maybe Nick Foligno wasn’t all that good either, despite his heart and grit captaincy, and was on the third line. They discovered that Jack Johnson has always sucked and punted him into the pressbox when he started bitching about a new contract (or debt-servicing). For John Tortorella to come to these conclusions, one would have to start believing in a higher power.

And it didn’t matter.

Certainly Artemi Panarin turned some heads in the first three games, with two goals (including a gorgeous OT winner) and seven points to go with seven shots. He then didn’t scratch again when things got tricky in the next three games, was a -6, and there went any offense Columbus might have thought about having. Hmm, strange that. Doesn’t sound familiar at all.

And this is probably as good as it gets for the Jackets. They’ll have to give Ryan Murray and Boone Jenner raises this summer, even though no one can identify what it is they do exactly. That will eat up whatever cap space they have, as well as keeping their powder dry for when Panarin gets $10 million a year after what is assuredly going to be a nuclear free agent season next year. Good thing they have $11 million combined tied up in Dubinsky and Foligno. The going rate for guys who growl a lot is astronomical, isn’t it?

You can feel Torts burnout coming next year as well, because that’s how this works. Lucky for the Jackets, and Tavares-less Islanders team, a stunting development from the Devils, the Hurricanes collapsing under the weight of their bellicose owner, and a clueless-how-to-rebuild Rangers team are probably going to Homer-sperm themselves out of taking the Jackets playoff spot.

Which will give Sergei Bobrovsky another chance to spit up all over himself when everyone’s paying attention. Once again, this two-time Vezina winner spent a lot of time looking like the morning after on Bourbon St when the Jackets needed him most. A .900 SV% to slightly better his .882 from last year. We should also remember this is the asshole that made Timothy Leif a household name, so why did we ever give him any shine in the first place? At least there will be some hilarious trade rumors after next time. He just has to go to Toronto, right?

So thanks, Jackets, for whatever it is  you do. Also Columbus is a strangely redneck stinkhole and deserves nothing good. Thanks for providing exactly none of it for them.

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Game #63 He Said We Wouldn’t Get the Treasure We Seek, on Account of Our Ob-stacles – Hawks 2, Blue Jackets 3

By Rose Rankin 2176 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Corsica

Tonight the Hawks showed up and seemed actually interested in playing hockey. Unfortunately that wasn’t enough, in what was a disappointing follow-up to last night, and a weird reversal of Wednesday night, where they weren’t interested at all yet managed to pull out an overtime win. Well, to the bullets:

–Forsberg made one mistake too many or else he would have had a solid game. Anderson’s goal in the third was one that he should want back, and that’s the one that made the difference. Prior to that goal, Forsberg was screened on the Atkinson’s goal in the first, which wasn’t really his fault. Early in the second he had a sequence of good saves, including on Jordan Oesterle, who tried really hard to score an own goal. But, Forsberg finished the night with a sub-par .897 SV%, and I have a feeling we’ll be seeing the J-F Berube Show soon enough.

–Our Cousin Vinny had a strong performance—in fact, his entire line did once again, in whatever composition that ended up being throughout the game. Hinostroza had an assist on Kampf’s goal in the first, and he hit the post twice in the second. Granted, his pass to Nachos was intercepted and that’s what turned into Dubois’ tying goal. But he bounced back with more chances in the third, and generally looked like a coked-up gerbil, as we’ve come to expect out of him. Plus he had a 69.6 CF% (NICE).

–Ryan Hartman took an untimely penalty late in the first, which led to Atkinson’s goal, and he was summarily benched for the rest of the game. I get that Q was pissed, and it was definitely irritating at the time, but the punishment was way out of proportion to the crime. It wasn’t even an egregious hook—it could have easily been a non-call, especially since they let Oesterle slide on a way-more-egregious interference on a breakaway (which also could have been called a hook) early in the first. The reasons this overreaction is bullshit are 1) is he really going to become a better player by getting benched after a ticky-tack call? and 2) Hinostroza to Hartman to Kampf resulted in the first goal, and that was minutes into the game. If these guys had more time to work together, maybe we could have scored more than one measly goal following that one.  But no, Q had to SEND A MESSAGE.

–Tomas Jurco got his first goal (anyone? anyone out there want this guy??), and it was off a beautiful feed from Gustafsson way back in the defensive zone. So that was fun.

–Sergei Bobrovsky had a .939 SV% and definitely kept the Jackets in the game, so I don’t want it to sound like I’m taking anything away from him. But damn the Hawks couldn’t hit the net. They ended the night with 33 shots on goal, but it should have easily been 10 higher than that if they could hit the proverbial broad side of a barn.

–Connor Murphy had a somewhat better game than last night. He finished with a 55.2 CF% and didn’t make any dumbass blunders. So that was fun too.

–We managed to out-shit the worst power play in the league. Columbus came into this game ranked dead last on the man advantage, with the Hawks at a sterling 29th. Yet, the Jackets scored on the only power play they had (that aforementioned Hartman penalty), and the Hawks went 0-for-3 with their usual dismal power play performance.

I suppose it’s frustrating that the Hawks couldn’t fuck with the Jackets more and take them out of that last playoff spot, because fuck those guys, that would have been funny. But honestly, the Jackets may do that to themselves, and at this point if we miss out on points, it’s kinda, well, pointless, for lack of a better term. I feel bad for individual guys who genuinely tried but couldn’t pull it out, but at least they made an attempt tonight. Onward.

Beer de jour: Beach Blonde by Crystal Lake Brewing

Line of the Night: This one is dumped in…will there be a retrieval? —Foley, asking what we’re all wondering on a power play zone entry.

Everything Else

Game #63 – Hawks vs. Blue Jackets Preview, Tub Scouring – What Jail Is Like

By Matt McClure 1799 0

 at 

Game Time: 6:00PM CST
TV/Radio: NBC Sports Chicago, WGN-AM 720
Maurice Clarett’s Tattoo Shop: The Cannon

As this Wannstedt-esque death march of a season trudges onward, the Hawks turn right around from last night’s win against the Sharks and head to Columbus tonight, where Torts and the Jackets hang on to the last wild card spot in the east by the slimmest of margins.

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Funk-O-Nots: Jackets at Hawks Preview/Get Down

By 1353

 vs. 

RECORDS: Jackets 49-19-8   Hawks 49-21-7

PUCK DROP: 7:30 at The Westside BoogeyDown

TV: CSN

LOVE ROLLER COASTER: Jackets Cannon

PROJECTED LINEUPS

 

ADJUSTED TEAM CORSI %: Jackets – 50.8 (12th)  Hawks – 50.9 (11th)

ADJUSTED TEAM xGF%: Jackets – 50.4 (14th)  Hawks – 49.5 (16th)

POWER PLAY %: Jackets – 20.5 (9th)  Hawks – 18.3 (17th)

PENALTY KILL %: Jackets – 82.9 (8th)  Hawks – 77.7 (25th)

It’s been a while since the Hawks saw this third of the Triumvirate of Doom that resides in the Metro Division. When the Hawks saw the Jackets in the opening throes of the season, the Hawks couldn’t kill any penalty and the Jackets hadn’t quite caught fire yet. That was their first win of the season, and they’ve gone on to collect 48 more. They have the second least amount of regulation losses, and now look poised to host the Penguins in the first round of the playoffs, the first time they’ve ever had home-ice in a playoff series.

But of course, hockey fans and especially bloggers being curmudgeons, we have to wonder if this is real.

Everything Else

I’m Miss World Cup, Watch Me Break And Watch Me Burn: Flew Into Miami Beach BOAC…

By 1584

Every time we have a big international tournament, a lot of us get sucked into the belief that Russia’s premier talent will finally shine through. Maybe it’s still the echoes and ghosts from the Red Army teams. We grew up with Russia being an international monster. It’s still somewhat ingrained.

But now they simply biff it every time. They looked a real force in the opening round in Vancouver ’10. They then gave up 19 goals to Rick Nash in the first period. They had the next Olympics at home. They were basically awful for the whole tournament and were easily swatted aside by Finland. It just never adds up to what you think it should.

If you look at two facets of this team, you’d think they have every chance of winning this thing. The forwards are loaded with scoring and speed. They have two goalies who have won Vezinas and can go supernova for two weeks at any point.

The problem is the in between is a giant sucking sound. Like, the hole that Gwar throws shit into onstage.