Everything Else

The Folly Of Transparecy

By Sam Fels 2447 0

Friend of the program Jay Zawaski had some thoughts on Tuesday. This is a subject we discussed a lot last year, what was the Hawks real intent on the season versus what they told everyone it was and why there was a difference. Jay’s not wrong about anything he says here, and it is a nice thought he wishes for where the Hawks were completely transparent about what their plans are going forward.

But the more I think about it, what do they have to gain?

Quite simply, the Hawks are not going to sell more tickets if they tell everyone that they’re in the process of turning over the team to their younger players. I don’t know that they’d sell less, but their position in the Chicago sports landscape isn’t so secure that they would feel they can risk it. While telling us exactly what “The Plan” is would make us all feel better, our mental state isn’t of real importance to them. The Hawks quite simply can’t take the risk of telling their only casual fans that this season might not matter. And that’s assuming there is “a plan.”

Secondly, the Hawks can’t really send that message to Keith, to Seabrook, to Kane, to Toews, and maybe even especially to Crawford. While the organization might be looking at the days already where they’re no longer the main contributors, considering they’re the guys who pulled this organization out of the seventh level of hell they’re owed a certain amount of promises from the front office. You can’t really tell these guys that they’re going to spend the next season or two or three playing games that aren’t going to matter. Maybe they know it already, maybe they don’t, but you certainly can’t give them that message in public. And considering whatever Crawford is working his way back from (and right now “working” is just a claim), it would be truly unfair to have him bust his ass to come back to backstop a team his bosses just told everyone isn’t really relevant.

These guys are made, and I think the only way the Hawks could even consider it would be to meet with them privately and say this is where we want to go, and you have the option of being a part of it or not. These guys all have full NMCs and I doubt any of them are interested in moving, but they also might not want to have another playoff-less season or two.

At the same time, the Hawks simply can’t move them, because of the aforementioned fragility of their place in the market. Toews, Kane, Keith, Seabrook, and Crawford are still the players most fans can identify only and buy the tickets to see. You and I might go to see Top Cat’s or Schmaltz’s (or hopefully Jokiharju’s) development (because we’re sick and our lives our empty), but the guy or girl you work with doesn’t. Even if we passed through some undiscovered wormhole into a world where the Hawks could and would do a full tear-down, McDonough and Rocky are not going to stomach a season or two of a half-empty building. Not after all the back-slapping they’ve done with each other by taking the Hawks out of that by simply standing there while the roster that was already in place took shape.

However, the Hawks “rebuild” plan is flawed. You “rebuild, ” whether fully or on the fly, if you have players to build the future around. The Hawks don’t. Nick Schmaltz maxes out as a great #2 center. Maybe DeBrincat is a genuine top line scorer, and maybe he’s something of a tweener from a #1 or #2 LW. He could be any iteration of Phil Kessel, really. There’s no top-pairing d-man anywhere near ready. If you’re building a team around #2 centers and maybe 1st-line wingers, congratulations you’re the St. Louis Blues or the Minnesota Wild. And you know where that road goes and it’s nowhere pretty.

Which brings me to Erik Karlsson. If you’re a team that’s called about Justin Faulk, then you’d obviously call about Erik Karlsson because Erik Karlsson is the absolute idealized version of Justin Faulk. Sure, the Hawks would have to clear out Hossa’s contract to fit him in for this season, and then need more salary cap rises to accommodate him for the next contract he’s going to sign. But based on what’s been rumored to be the return from the Stars or Lightning, the Hawks could probably match it.

So if they’re not rebuilding, and they say they aren’t, and they’re after Justin Faulk, why aren’t they calling? Why aren’t they at least saying they’re calling? Karlsson is the quickest route to maximizing whatever you have left in “the core.” If you’re stated aim of competing every season is your actual aim, and we don’t know that it is, you’d be in on this. You would have been in on Tavares too, but the Hawks didn’t even get in the room.

McClure has a theory that the Hawks would never take on any player that would have to be paid more than Toews and Kane (which is funny in itself, because Keith has been the most important player throughout this run but that’s another discussion). Karlsson doesn’t make that yet but obviously will. I wonder if that’s the case and whether that really matters to either if they’re staring at finishing out their careers playing on middling teams.

Given what’s already on the roster, the Hawks simply can’t be bad enough to draft high enough to get a true difference maker without a shit-ton of luck either in the lottery or by getting a player of that quality in the spots they don’t generally come from. So why are those picks so important? And if everyone’s job is on the line like they claim, wouldn’t you be after the one player that basically assures everyone keeps their job? Karlsson takes this dreck and at worst it’s a playoff team with a healthy Crawford (and maybe even not). That would at least see Quenneville finish the season and Stan get to see out whatever his plan is.

But again, there’s no impetus for them to tell us. The sweaty hand-clappers and their ugly fucking kids will still be at the Convention happily sopping up whatever tripe they’re fed. There won’t be much scrutiny from a press corps that has the Cubs and Bears training camp a mere two weeks away. Quite simply, the Hawks won’t tell us what they’re doing because they don’t have to.

Everything Else

What are we supposed to do with this?

By Adam Hess 2190 0

One of the stranger themes that is constantly present with the Hawks year in and year out is the Trade Guy. It seems like each offseason – or at least every other year – there has been at least one player whose combination of play, contract, and being surpassed by other players just proving to be better, leads to him being an extremely obvious trade candidate both from the sensibility standpoint and the fan outrage standpoint.

First it was Nick Leddy, then it was Patrick Sharp, followed by Bryan Bickell, and now it’s Artem Anisimov. Wide Dick proved to be the prize of the first Brandon Saad trade, and he really has been perfectly fine for the Hawks in the three years he’s been here. He’s netted at 20 goals in each of his three seasons in Chicago, a feat he had only achieved once prior to landing here. A good chunk of those are probably a direct result of playing with Patrick Kane for three years (and Artemi Panarin for two of those), but it’s still a decent selling point if your trying to build value on the trade market, which we are.

The analytically minded are not going to be as bullish on Anismov, and for good reason – he has only broken 50% shot share at 5v5 once in three years in Chicago, but he’s also never dipped below 49% so it’s not like he’s getting skulled out there. It’s basically a back and forth when he’s out there, which isn’t exactly ideal but is still adequate enough to not be maddening. Again folks, we’re going full on used car sales pitch here.

Anisimov does have some obvious shortcomings that are definitely less than ideal for a center, like the fact that is really slow and also terrible on the dot. He’s a perfectly fine player and one that might truly be able to contribute to a good team if used properly, or eat top six minutes for a middling or bad team and do a pretty good job. Basically, if Stan Bowman is worth his salt (and I think he is), he should be able to build a market for Anisimov. The question, though, is how good that market would be.

Back at the trade deadline, the Hawks were rumored to be considering trading him, but the best offer they got was a third round pick from Columbus. But the trade deadline doesn’t always bring out the full market because it seems like teams are always hesitant to players that aren’t the “biggest” names on the market at that time. The NHL Draft and free agency season has become the big event for major moves as teams try to restructure themselves for the new seasons by plugging holes or adding new elements, so Anismov’s market is probably going to have at least a few takers. But the market isn’t your only obstacle.

Anisimov has a full NMC that runs until July 1, so that throws a major wrench in any plans that Stan may have had to try and move him at Friday’s draft. And this is where it gets murky, because if you’re Anisimov you might be smarter to waive that NMC this week and give yourself a bit more control over where you play next year rather than handing in a 10-team list on June 30 only to have a 1-in-1o shot at your preferred location come July. Not that Stan would ask Wide Dick where he wants to go and then only try to make it work there, but if Stan gets a deal put together on Friday and calls up Anisimov’s agent, maybe it makes more sense to just say “yes” then and know you’re wanted where you’re headed rather than go into the new league year with only an inkling of an idea of where you’ll be come October.

I think the Hawks might be able to sell a team like Carolina on taking Anisimov as part of a package for Justin Faulk, and I genuinely think Carolina would be a nice landing spot for Wide Dick while also striking me as a nice place to play. Is that more attractive than trying to sort through which third of this league is desirable enough to play in to include them on an “okay” list?

Given that the Hawks are pretty much set at their top two center spots at this point with Toews and Schmaltz, while also being rumored to have interest in John Tavares, it’s starting to feel more like “when” Anisimov gets traded rather than “if” he gets traded. It doesn’t feel particularly likely that it happens this week, but stranger things have happened, and it’s all going to come down to what level of control Wide Dick wants on his future. It’s at least something to keep an eye on come Friday.

Everything Else

Jokiharju, Saad, And Figuring Out The Puzzle

By Sam Fels 2530 0

It feels like Stan Bowman is going to have another “June 23rd” in the coming week. That was the day last year when he went more aggressive than we’d seen before, some might say he went “a little funny in the head,” and shipped out Artemi Panarin and Niklas Hjalmarsson (hilariously not telling his coach) for Brandon Saad and Connor Murphy. We’ve already been down the road on whether these were good trades or not, so we don’t have to do that again right now.

What’s clear is that Stan knows the temperature under his office chair is getting turned up, and Rocky Wirtz going “Kiss Of Death” after his flavorless Manhattan of a season in Crain’s made that abundantly clear, as well as John McDonough stomping around the Hawks offices like Dracula and Miranda Priestly’s lovechild.

So earlier in the week we talked about Justin Faulk, as that’s been the big rumor. Yesterday, the Sun-Times’s Mark Lazerus (closer than you know…love each other so…Mark Lazerus) put forth a rumor that Faulk might cost the Hawks one Brandon Saad. When reading that for all of us here, we cringe a bit, mostly because we love Saad and mostly because we feel that trading him after this season would A) be selling low and B) evidence that the Hawks don’t really have any sort of plan.

And yet, when you begin to think about it, this might make more sense. While Faulk didn’t have his best year last year, that kind of return for Saad certainly wouldn’t be selling low, per se. As previously stated, the Hawks don’t have a lot of pieces. While we dream about centering a deal around Artem Anisimov, fooling some GM with his goal totals and size for the far too many GMs who are still concerned about that sort of thing, it’s unlikely. The Hawks simply can’t lose Schmaltz, because they don’t have much depth down the middle. DeBrincat is almost certainly untouchable, given that he could very well be a 35-goal scorer if deployed properly. To give you some idea how valuable that is, there were only seven 35-goal scorers in the league this year. Dylan Sikura wouldn’t have much value, one would think. Below the main roster, it’s hard to see what else the Hawks can throw at a team. There’s no surefire prospect, though we’ll get to Jokiharju in a second.

Still, the loss of Saad makes the Hawks look awfully short at forward. You have….this?

– Toews – Hinostroza?

DeBrincat – Schmaltz – Kane

Sikura – Anisimov/Ejdsell – Duclair?

Jurco – Anisimov/Ejdsell – DUHHHHHH?

No offense, but I’m not going to make plans for that team in May. I guess this is the balance. Toss in David Kampf and an almost certainly returning Tommy Wingels (it’s a name, not a condition) and you’re still not inspired to write poetry about it. If the Hawks had another kid you were confident could step in to a top six role, you’d be more comfortable losing Saad, but he doesn’t exist yet.

You could argue the Hawks should just load the top line and let the rest fall where it may and have Top Cat, Toews, and Kane up there and just pray they jump into hyperspace, and maybe that’s the plan. I guess I can live with a second line of Sikura-Schmaltz-Hinostroza… I just won’t live comfortably. Or happily. Or healthily.

Which brings us around to Henri Jokiharju, who signed his entry-level deal yesterday. Now, normally, I would bet pretty good money the Hawks bring him to camp, throw him out in a couple preseason games, and then punt him back to Portland for his last year in the WHL. But this is not a normal time, and both Q and Stan might have to get outside their comfort zone here.

Yes, Jokiharju is only 19. But his numbers compare favorably with Mikhail Sergachev, who played a role on the best regular season team in the league. And Jokiharju did it in the WHL, which is a much tougher scoring environment than the OHL where Sergachev was. He also squares with Ivan Provorov, who has been the Flyers best d-man the past two years (and don’t give me any Ghost Bear bullshit).

Basically, what I’m saying is the Hawks are desperate, and it may come to toss Jokiharju in the deep end and leave with it. That doesn’t mean pairing him with Keith, but a heavily sheltered role with Murphy on his off-side or Dahlstrom or something I haven’t thought of and see where you are after 40 games. If he plays his way up the lineup, even better. But even at his tender age, he almost certainly can give you something in the same usage that Sergachev provided, assuming that Quenneville wouldn’t turn psychedelic purple at the thought of using a d-man who isn’t 20 yet. He did it before with Leddy…though we all know how that went at first.

While Stan might say something about “development,” he isn’t going to be here for the end of Jokiharju’s apprenticeship at lower levels if the Hawks don’t turn it around.

It would take quite the set of tires to pin that much on Jokiharju before he’s ever played professionally, but if the Hawks sold out on him in their minds they might consider cheaper additions on the blue line, like de Haan or Hickey from the Islanders or whatever they could fashion out of Anisimov (which is clearly Nurse from Edmonton because Peter Chiarelli would totally do that) and keep Saad around.

It’s not going to be boring.

Everything Else

There’s A Mighty Wind A’Blowin’….

By Sam Fels 3282 0

Alex Ovechkin had barely gotten the Chalice over his head before we got some pretty tasty rumors about the Westside Club de Hockey. And they certainly bring some excitement and questions, and there’s nothing we love than the two of those together.

So let’s start with Scott Powers, who hasn’t been alone in reporting that the Hawks have called the Carolina Hurricanes about Justin Faulk and Scott Darling. Elliote Friedman was also in on rumors that Darling could beat a hasty retreat to his beloved land of beef and deep dish. There’s some smoke here, so let’s talk about the fire (YOU’LL JUST HAVE TO IMAGINE THE FIRE…). Faulk is easy enough so let’s do that second.

The possibility of bringing Scott Darling home would simply have to mean that at best, the Hawks have no idea when Corey Crawford is going to be ready to play again, or if. The worst case is they know he won’t anytime soon…or again. If the Hawks are looking not just for a quality backup, but one that can step in and take the starting role and do a passable impression, then you know something is up with Crow. And if it’s Darling they’re talking about, that’s $4.1 million worth of goaltender you’d be bringing in and you wouldn’t be bringing in that kind of number to merely be a backstop.

Now, if you’re sitting there wondering to yourself, “Darling didn’t kind of blow his chance at being a starter?” well, I won’t necessarily tell you you’re wrong. What I will say is the Carolina doesn’t do any of its goaltenders any favors with the way they played, and Darling was never the type you’d want to perform miracles night after night. That said, unless they completely overhaul the defense, including mailing Brent Seabrook to Zanzibar with Jordan Oesterle or something, it’s highly unlikely the Hawks are going to be all that defensively sound either. And given how the forwards shake out, the Hawks might have to play an even more up-tempo style to match what the Penguins or Knights or Preds do. Which means you need more circus acts from your goalie, which is what got the Canes in this hole in the first place. Duncan Keith isn’t going to rediscover Norris form next year, though he can still be good. Erik Gustafsson is still not going to be able to spell “defense.” Whatever Forsling improves, it’s still going to be a learning curve.

The other nugget here is that Friedman suggests Darling could be had for Marian Hossa’s contract. Which…I mean I guess? The appeal for the Canes is that though they would gain about a million and a half in cap hit, in actual dollars they’d spend three million less given that Hossa’s salary is only $1 million. And I mean…sure? If they’re that desperate to lose Darling, but we’re still talking about a goalie who’s only had one bad season and I don’t know that there are many alternatives out there for them.

One would be Phillip Grubauer, but he could be a cheaper alternative for the Hawks as well, at least in terms of dollars. But the Caps would want actual assets in return for a promising goaltender who had a wonderful regular season and is just 26. He’s also RFA, so he that might lessen the assets needed to get him and also makes his salary cheaper. But Grubauer is going to want to at least have a chance to compete to start, and if Crow is ever going to play again (and this is how we should really start framing the discussion) he’s still going to slide right back into being the #1. But, as said, Grubauer is restricted so you can sign him for two years or whatever and tell him to just wait it out. And given when those two years are up Crow would be 35, perhaps he’s ready to take over then. But again, it’s a thin goalie market, and there will be plenty of teams calling about Grubs, which will only drive the price up.

As for Faulk, well, we’ve only been screaming for the Hawks to get him for like five years now. He might not solve everything but he solves a ton. He’s a right-handed puck mover you could play with Keith, or Murphy on his off-side, or Dahlstrom, or some other combos. He’s a real live power play QB and not one play-acting at it like Keith. He’s sound defensively as well. You could already see pairing him with Keith, leaving Murphy and Gustafsson to be ya-ha time on the second pairing and leaving Seabrook on a third pairing where he actually can still be useful given the right partner.

Of course, you can’t just HAVE Justin Faulk. The Canes are looking to cash in on this, and distressingly Powers says in his article the Hawks won’t move the #8 pick. WELL WHY THE FUCK NOT?! By the time whoever they take at #8 (it’s so going to be Tkachuk’s asshole son, the second one) is actually ready to contribute at the NHL level, everyone very well might be out of a job. While planning for the long term is nice in your life and maybe even mine (never tried it), this team doesn’t have a long-term. Two seasons from now when everyone is in their mid-30s or worse they’re going to suck and suck hard, and no amount of clever drafting is going to prevent that unless they really get some somewhere-over-the-rainbow luck happening. The #8 pick alone isn’t going to get you Faulk, but it might take the place of a body you don’t want to give up. I’m sure the names on Carolina’s list start with “Schmaltz, DeBrincat, and maybe even Sikura.” Anisimov isn’t going to get it done either, though man that would be wonderful.

I suppose if I squint you could justify losing Schmaltz if you thought Ejdsell was ready for primetime now, and if you thought Quenneville could disabuse himself from the notion that Anisimov is a #2 center in the Western Conference. Those seem like big, motherfuckin’ ifs.

But hey, at least the kettle is percolating over on Madison. We’ll see what the construction workers yelling at McDonough want.

Everything Else

Well Pilgrim, Not Until You Eat The Peanuts Outta My… – FFUD’s ’17-’18 Player Reviews – Victor Ejdsell or I Am Not A Gun

By John Pullega 1994 0

In running himself out of town by means of his performance and (allegedly) his mouth, Ryan Hartman turned into a late first-round pick and the towering Victor Ejdsell. Ejdsell impressed in his NHL debut, lining up between Saad and Kane to the tune of a 51+ CF% and three shots on goal. Then he sort of disappeared in his last five, primarily between DeBrincat and Sikura. Let’s see what we can pick out in a mere six games from our newest Éric Dazé–sized center.

Victor Ejdsell

6 GP, 0 Goals, 1 Assist, 1 Point, -1, 0 PIM

43.3 CF% (Evens), -2.7 CF% Rel (Evens), 37.88 SCF% (5v5), 35.96 xGF% (5v5), -8.66 xGF% Rel (5v5)

 60% oZ Start (Evens)

What We Said: Ejdsell comes with plus-hands . . . The big concern is whether or not he can skate enough to make any of it matter . . . The Hawks were after Ejdsell when he chose the Predators, and generally the European players they’ve been hot on tend to work out at least ok . . .

What We Got: Overall, we got a small feel for what Ejdsell might be able to provide in a sheltered role. His first two games were his best, as he managed four shots and his lone assist. After that, he disappeared completely for his next three, losing 66% of his faceoffs or more, and managing zero shots on goal. He took three shots in the very last game, then got sent down to Rockford for their playoff run.

Perhaps the most encouraging thing about Ejdsell’s cup of coffee was that he didn’t spend too much time playing the role of Annette Frontpresence. He’s got soft hands and good vision according to most scouting reports, and in his debut, he spent much more time in the high slot than in front of the goaltender. That’s a good thing, because by all accounts, Ejdsell’s play style is much smaller and more skilled than his frame suggests. There’s still plenty of time for Quenneville et al. to fuck that up and neuter him by cementing him in the crease because he happens to be large, but in his mini-audition, they seemed willing to let Ejdsell be Ejdsell and not Artem Anisimov.

There isn’t a ton more we can glean from his six games in terms of performance. While all of his advanced stats are downright awful, it’s over six mostly meaningless games, during which he played most of his time with DeBrincat and Sikura. More encouraging is how he’s playing in Rockford. He’s got two goals and two assists in three games, including a triple-overtime, series-sweep-clinching goal against the Wolves. Jon Fromi had some positive things to say about him:

Wasn’t bad in his own end and showed he can finish a scoring play in Game 3 [against the Wolves] . . . I haven’t seen any problems as far as him keeping up with the pace the Hogs like to play. He hasn’t looked out of place at all coming from the larger ice.

Fromi also said that the Ice Hogs are letting him play in transition, as he’s been at the front of some of the rushes. He’s also played a bit on the point during the power play with Dahlstrom, which might be encouraging.

Where We Go From Here: Given the Hawks’s makeup at center—with Toews and Schmaltz in the top two, Tommy Wingels all but guaranteed to come back, Artem Anisimov not yet traded, and our David Kampf in the background—it doesn’t seem like there’s a lot of wiggle room for Ejdsell next year. But with his size and the supposed skill he’s got in his hands, there could be a spot for him somewhere in the bottom six—maybe next to Duclair and Sikura—assuming Saad, Kane, DeBrincat, and Vinnie round out the top six, as they should.

Realistically, he’ll find a home in the bottom six, making us wonder whether he’s actually two smaller hockey players underneath a trench coat sneaking into a movie they shouldn’t be at.

But you didn’t come to the Victor Ejdsell review for rational, stats-based analysis, and neither did I.

What you came for is a complete skullfuck of unbelievable and nearly impossible trades involving Ejdsell, and I’m here to give it to you.

Because the Blackhawks are running out of time with this core’s window, they’re going to make two moves to pry it back open, and they involve a ton of risk. But with the core aging and three consecutive disappointing years behind them, it’s time for Bowman to ride the snake.

The first move can come in one of three flavors, each one requiring more GENIOUS BRAIN neurons than the last to comprehend, to fill the big hole in the blue line. The second, of course, is a no-brainer. Everything that follows assumes the cap goes up to at least $80 million and that the Hawks either trade or LTIR Hossa before the draft.

1a. Package both first-round picks, Ejdsell, and Schmaltz for Calgary’s Dougie Hamilton. Throw in Rutta, and Anisimov and his 11 power play goals if you can get him to waive his NMC. According to Kent Wilson over at The Athletic, “The Flames will be looking to recoup some draft picks and find an impact right winger to solidify the attack up front. The team may be tempted to put Hamilton on the auction block to fill one or both of those needs, but that would likely turn out to be a mistake.”

Schmaltz’s 52 points and 21 goals last year might not be the high-level scoring Calgary would need to justify the trade, especially since Giordano–Hamilton is one of the best pairings in the league. Then again, Wilson pointed out that the Flames seemed to have trust issues with Dougie, using him both less than T.J. Brodie on average and rarely in higher-leverage defensive situations (penalty kill, overtime, as the sole defender on the power play). And this is a team that signed Jaromir Jagr as an offensive solution then acted surprised when he stopped giving a shit, and thought signing Michael Stone was a solution for defensive depth, so Flames GM Brad Treliving might be a moron.

2a. Sign John Tavares at $12 million. Our fearless leader, King of All Media, and overall maven already laid it out for you. If that went through, you’d have

DeBrincat–Tavares–Kane

Saad–Toews–Hinostroza

Duclair–Kampf–Sikura

Highmore/Jurco–Anisimov/Wingels–Hayden

Keith–Hamilton

Gustafsson–Murphy

Seabrook–Jokiharju

1b. Package both first-round picks, Ejdsell, Hinostroza, and Schmaltz for Erik Karlsson, and even that might not be enough for what Ottawa would need for the best D-man in the game (Bobby Ryan would probably be involved, making this impossible for the cap). But let’s assume Pierre Dorion is a special kind of moron, and Ryan isn’t involved.

2b. Sign John Tavares at $12 million. That leaves you

DeBrincat–Tavares–Kane

Saad–Toews–Duclair

Jurco–Kampf–Sikura

Highmore–Anisimov–Hayden

Keith–Karlsson

Gustafsson–Murphy

Seabrook–Jokiharju

1c. Package their #8 pick, Artem Anisimov, Victor Ejdsell, and Vinnie Hinostroza for Justin Faulk. The scuttlebutt is that Carolina is losing patience with with Faulk, and given Canes owner Tom Dundon’s questionable ability to properly value and compensate the people who work for him, he might be griftable. Dundon, a man with next to no professional experience in hockey, wants to play Mark Cuban, so maybe you sell him on Anisimov’s VETERAN PRESENCE and 20-goal season as a center, Vinnie’s offensive potential, and Ejdsell’s size and skillset. The problem here is Anisimov’s no-move clause doesn’t turn into a limited no-trade clause until after the draft. Maybe you get him to waive it by selling him on playing with Andrei Svechnikov, I don’t know.

2c. Sign John Tavares at $12 million. That gives you

DeBrincat–Tavares–Kane

Saad–Toews–Duclair

Jurco–Schmaltz–Sikura

Highmore–Kampf–Hayden

Keith–Faulk

Gustafsson–Murphy

Seabrook–Jokiharju

Ejdsell may not be a gun, but maybe he can be one of the bullets that get the Hawks the top-pairing D-man they need, based on his size alone and the coinflip that is NHL GM dipshittery. Though it’s 99.9% certain none of this will happen, especially since DeBrincat would probably need to go for most of these trades to even be plausible, a boy can dream.

Everything Else

Well Pilgrim, Not Until You Eat The Peanuts Outta My… – FFUD’s ’17-’18 Player Reviews – Connor Murphy Or: How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Our Large Irish Son

By John Pullega 1921 0

When the Hawks brought Connor Murphy in, he was the presumptive favorite to replace the puck-pocked husk of what was once Niklas Hjalmarsson. And as the season went on, and the Hawks found their heads deeper and deeper in the toilet, the narrative began to range from “the Hawks will need a Top 4 defenseman next year” (true) to “the Hawks really miss Hjalmarsson this year” (categorically false in terms of on-ice performance).

After some early season struggles, a few confounding healthy scratches, and a mostly successful experiment on his off side, Murphy settled in to produce a couple of interesting career highs and team rankings. Let’s kick it.

Connor Murphy

76 GP, 2 Goals, 12 Assists, 14 Points, -3, 34 PIM

53.44 CF% (Evens), 1.2 CF% Rel (Evens), 53.47 SCF% (5v5), 51.57 xGF% (5v5), 2.99 xGF% Rel (5v5)

 50% oZ Start (Evens)

What We Said: Behind Keith and—if you look at him with enough glare from the sun—Seabrook, Murphy is probably the Hawks’s third best D-man. He’s fine if not underwhelming for the price ($3.85 million cap hit), but on the edge of 24, he will need to prove that his numbers really are the result of playing in America’s chafe rather than wasted potential. Given that the Hawks have won three Cups on the backs of their defensemen . . . Murphy will need to develop into a shutdown D-man fast.

What We Got: We’ll start with some numbers (feel free to skip the bullets if all you want is the explanation).

– Murphy posted an even-strength CF% of 53.44, finishing above water for the first time since his rookie year. Of Hawks D-men who played at least 20 games, he finished fourth, behind Franson (59.91), Gustafsson (55.39), and Kempný (53.95). If you bump the minimum threshold up to 40 games, Murphy is your leader in CF% for Hawks D-men.

– His 1.2 CF% Rel was only the second time he’s been in the positives on that ledger (1.0 last year). Of all Hawks defensemen who played at least 20 games, only Franson (9.2), Gustafsson (6.6), and Kempný (1.4) had higher CF% Rels. Again, bumping the threshold up to 40 games, Murphy’s your D-man leader for the Hawks.

– The caveat there is that Franson, Gustafsson, and Kempný started in the offensive zone at respective rates of 65.8%, 57.4%, and 55.4% to Murphy’s 50%.

– Murphy also finished with a High Danger Chances For Percentage (HDCF%) of 48.56. That’s fourth among Hawks D-men with at least 20 games—behind Kempný (52.86), Franson (52.34), and Gustafsson (50.59)—and above the team rate of 47.11. Once again, bumping the threshold to 40 games, Murphy leads all Hawks D-men.

– Murphy finished fourth in Expected Goals For Percentage (xGF%; 51.57) among Hawks D-men who played at least 20 games (behind Franson, Kempný, and Gustafsson). When bumped up to 40 games, Murphy was the leader.

– Finally, Murphy finished third in Expected Goals For Percentage Relative (xGF% Rel; 2.99) among Hawks D-men who played at least 20 games (behind Gustafsson and Franson). When bumped to 40 games, he’s the leader again.

All of this is to say that in terms of possession, Murphy was good if not great overall. He was better than the Hawks’s average in terms of giving up high-danger chances, but not great in a vacuum. And when he was on the ice, the Hawks could have expected more goals for than against.

That said, one of Murphy’s glaring weaknesses, especially at the beginning and end of the year, was his struggle to clear the puck in his own zone under pressure.

The above graph, which was tracked by Corey Sznajder, tells us that of these nine Blackhawks, only Brent Seabrook had more failed zone exits per 60 minutes of play. This means that the opposition was more likely to sustain pressure when Murphy had the puck in his own zone, which, of course, tends to lead to more opportunities to score goals. And while these data aren’t comprehensive (only tracked through 38 games), it does give us a good sample size for what’s pretty obvious through the eye test: When Murphy was pressured in his own zone, he sometimes panicked.

While Murphy absolutely must keep his spurs from jingling and jangling in his own zone if he’s going to develop into a true Top 4 shutdown D-man, it’s hard to ignore the carousel of D-men he was jerked around with this year and wonder whether that affected his play.

Murphy played primary time with five different defensemen this year.

All stats 5v5

Given how often he got jerked around, including playing his off side in his 25 games with Seabrook, one thing that stands out is the relative consistency in his possession numbers, aside from Keith. And despite the fact that the Hawks were the seventh worst team in giving up High Danger Chances, Murphy still managed well when away from Oesterle and Keith.

But therein lies the problem: Since the assumption is that Keith takes on the toughest competition (and he usually does), Murphy’s piss-poor numbers with him might suggest that he isn’t a Top 4 guy like Hjalmarsson was.

But this dovetails nicely with the overall point I want to make: The Murphy-for-Hjalmarsson trade wasn’t the loss for the Hawks some people want to say it is, and having Hjalmarsson over Murphy would have made things worse, not better.

Check out some of Hjalmarsson’s numbers when he played with Keith over his Hawks career:

All Stats 5v5

Like Murphy, Hjalmarsson had a rough go of it in the first 100 or so minutes with Keith, and that was when Keith was starting to go full Oppenheimer on the league. Coincidentally, it wasn’t until Hjalmarsson turned 25 that things really started to click any time he played with Keith, and next year Murphy will be 25.

Clearly, this is simply a coincidence, as raw age will have no effect on how (or whether) Murphy plays with Keith going forward. But this idea that Murphy doesn’t have Top 4 potential because he didn’t play well with a declining Keith over seven games this year is one of the more confusing implications I’ve heard this year.

The last point I’ll make regarding the implication that the Murphy-for-Hjalmarsson trade was a loss for the Hawks and that the Hawks miss Hjalmarsson is this:

Using more of Sznajder’s tracking data, it’s obvious that Murphy brought more to the table for the Hawks than Hjalmarsson did for the Coyotes this year. One of the two things that Hjalmarsson did that was marginally better was in terms of the breakups he caused at the blue line, preventing opponents from entering the zone with possession. (Note: They only tracked Hjalmarsson for 10 games this year against Murphy’s 38, so consider the sample size.)

Going even farther—because I have no sense of moderation whatsoever—even when comparing this year’s Murphy to last year’s Hjalmarsson, the differences aren’t as big as you’d think, mostly:

So even when we recognize and admit that Murphy had trouble with his exits from his own zone, the revisionist history that Hjalmarsson was an indispensable cog whose absence contributed to this year’s downfall doesn’t really hold water. Last year’s Hjalmarsson certainly had a better performance in terms of breakups and the percentage of entries he allowed, but he did it primarily with a not-yet-in-full-decline Duncan Keith covering him (or vice versa). Murphy spent most of his time with the glob of ambergris that is Brent Seabrook.

In short, Murphy had a good year with the Hawks despite his coach’s best efforts to jerk him around, was better than Hjalmarsson would have been, and stayed generally consistent despite spending almost a third of his year on his off side babysitting Seabrook. He’ll never be a game breaker, but he doesn’t have to be.

Where We Go From Here: Connor Murphy ought to open next year next to either Keith or Erik Gustafsson. If the Hawks are going to look at Keith as a Top Pairing Guy next year (they probably shouldn’t), they have to give him someone to cover his ass when his brain says he can make a play but his feet disagree, as we saw more often this year. I’d argue that Murphy, more than Oesterle, is that guy, despite how poorly they played together last year.

Whether you think Gustafsson is a second pairing guy is a conversation for another day (for the record, I can see it if I squint, and I’m willing to try it). But what’s undeniable is that in 135 minutes together at 5v5, Murphy and Gustafsson had a 57+ CF% while starting in the offensive zone at a 49.45% rate. With Murphy and Gustafsson entering their primes at 25 and 26, and each having paper that runs at least through 2020, pairing them might be worth an extended look, but it probably requires outside help to pair with Keith.

If the Hawks manage to sign a guy like John Carlson, or swing a trade for an OEL, Darnell Nurse, Justin Faulk, or maybe Oscar Klefbom, you’ll feel more comfortable about having the new guy and Keith as the top pairing, with Murphy covering Gustafsson. Or, you can pair the new guy with Murphy on the top pairing. This would let Keith slot in the second pairing with some iteration of Gustafsson on his off side, Forsling on his off side, Jokiharju (which is probably too much to ask), or Oesterle, because you know that’s going to happen again, despite our wailing.

Regardless, the Hawks have to saddle Murphy with more responsibility next year, whether they like it or not. The Hawks have a Top-4-potential guy in Murphy, and when he wasn’t getting the runaround, he showed flashes of it last year. Whether they use him that way is anyone’s guess.

All stats from hockey-reference.com, NaturalStatTrick.com, or corsica.hockey, unless otherwise noted.

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Game #68 – Hurricanes vs. Hawks Spotlight: Is This All There Is, Justin Faulk?

By Sam Fels 1767 0

Four years ago, Justin Faulk was something of a surprise inclusion on Team USA in Sochi. We got it, of course. He had been a young, dynamic puck-mover simply plying his trade in anonymity in Carolina, which as far as hockey coverage is concerned might as well be Narnia. While the Hurricanes have always been a metric-lovers delight under Bill Peters, for the most part Faulk had stayed above the team-rate and pushed the play the other way. It’s why you heard rumors of him being the name exchanged for Taylor Hall once upon a time, and he would have been a great improvement on Adam Larsson. Then again, so would dozens of players, but we’ve done the Chiarelli post before.

Now we sort of wonder if Faulk missed the point where he was supposed to take THE LEAP. And if it’s going to come around again for him to jump off.

On this Canes team, and last year’s, Faulk has essentially been skating second-pairing shifts. Brett Pesce and Jaccob Slavin take the hardest shifts in terms of both zone-starts and competition. They do the mine-sweeping. Faulk and rookie Haydn Fleury (and his missing “e”) or Noah Hanafin are next up. Everything is basically set-up for Faulk to mimic what Brent Burns does in San Jose, to at least be the poor man’s version of that (or the Carolina version, if you will. And you won’t). Simply slaughter the competition below the top lines of the opponent.

And yet, Faulk comes into this one with just 26 points. That’s not horrible, of course, but given Faulk’s skillset you can’t help but wonder if he shouldn’t be pushing 50 or 60 points when the season is over. And he’s never really come close to that. His career-year was three seasons ago already when he managed 49 points.

Faulk still pushes the play at a clip of 54% Corsi and that’s above the team-rate. But his scoring-chance percentage is below the team rate, and while some of that can be attributed to the growing pains of Fleury when they’ve been paired, considering they’re getting second and third lines you have to figure that should be better.

Faulk has also been undone by a 3.6% shooting-percentage, almost half his career-rate. And he’s firing more attempts than he ever has, and getting more scoring-chances per game than he ever has. Clearly bad luck is playing a huge role in this.

Which makes one wonder if a team couldn’t get Faulk this summer at a possibly lower rate than they should if they’re looking at those numbers. After this season, even if they’ll both be RFAs, both Pesce and Slavin are going to be due big raises. After next year so will Fleury. Elias Lindholm up front is due one after this season, and Teuvo is up after next. While the Canes have plenty of cap space, they’re something of a budget team, at least for right now, though that could change with their new nutcase owner. And they have to make room to find a #1 center, and probably a goalie if Scott Darling can’t find reverse on a Russian tank anytime soon.

So you know what we’re thinking. Justin Faulk would solve a lot of problems around this town, though what the Hawks have to offer is unclear. The Canes would certainly ask for Schmaltz or DeBrincat, and for the Hawks that might just be running in place. You can be sure the Leafs, Oilers, Canadiens, Sabres, and a host of others will be bothering Ron Francis at the draft if he puts Faulk on the market. Faulk has two years left on his deal that pays him a mere $4.8 per, so his value is through the roof. The Canes won’t get any more for him than they will this summer.

But is he the unlucky player who will start finding the net and assists with regularity next season given what his chances are? Or is he the one who just quite can’t break through? It’s probably worth finding out for someone.

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Game #68 – Hurricanes vs. Hawks Q&A: The Creatures of Section 328

By Sam Fels 1714 0

@Section328 are the hardcore in PNC Arena in Raleigh. They took off their facepaint long enough to answer our questions.

Let’s start with Scott Darling. Why hasn’t it worked out this season? And are the Canes going to  give up on him or try again next season?
Great question. It truly seems like a confidence issue. We’ve seen Darling play some really solid games, but on more nights than we care to remember, he’d let in a soft or questionable goal, then it’s all downhill from there. His contract isn’t a total albatross, but with a new owner, we wouldn’t be shocked if they completely cut bait. We’d like to see him get another crack at it with another full offseason to prepare.
With Slavin and Pesce taking the hardest assignments, shouldn’t Justin Faulk be a little more of an offensive weapon seeing second-pairing minutes? Is this why he occasionally pops up in trade rumors?
You’d think so, right? Let’s just say he pops up in trade rumors more often than he’s an all-star defenseman worthy of being a captain of this team. We’re looking back at the rumor from a couple years ago of a trade centered around Justin Faulk and Taylor Hall with great sadness.
What’s the feeling about Bill Peters? We’ve always liked him, the Canes always have some of the best underlying numbers in the league no matter where they are in the standings, but at some point it he has to get a team to the playoffs, right?
We’ve always liked him too. He’s as Albertan as the day is long, but we feel he’s taken this team as far as he can. Every coach has their favorite players, but why Bill Peters insists on giving Derek Ryan featured minutes and Jeff Skinner is playing with Lee Stempniak and Phil DiGuiseppe is totally beyond us. Maybe Derek Ryan has some kind of incriminating photos of the coach?
His system is stifling the offensive creativity of guys like Aho, Skinner, and Teuvo The defense, while still good, hasn’t improved. If there’s not hockey here in late April, it’s time to part ways.
Ok…fine… we put it off long enough…tell us how much you love Our Special Boy. 
Joakim Nordstrom?
He’s alright. OHHHH, you mean Taco Tuesday, Torso Tonguepunch, Teuvo Teravainen. Yea, we like him a lot, and we’d like to keep him for a very long time. Thanks for paying Toews $10.5 million until we believe 2033 so that we could have him. That’s very thoughtful of you guys!
Given the blue line, and the style of play, can the Canes make the playoffs and at least throw a scare into a top seed? Or will the goaltending and a lack of scoring punch keep them from both?
If we had to place a bet today, it wouldn’t be on the Canes making the postseason. That being said, we think this team would fare better in a seven game series than it would in any seven games against different teams. They play a “playoff-style” game already for whatever that’s worth, and we’re still waiting to see Jeff Skinner in a playoff game. But in the playoffs, you want a number one goalie to carry you to the promised land. Right now we don’t have that, we just have Cam Ward playing in perpetuity.

 

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Game #17 We Ran Into Some Old Friends – Hawks 4, Hurricanes 3

By Sam Fels 1623 0

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Well, I’m happy to report that I pulled off the motherfuck on Twitter tonight and the Hawks managed a comeback win (or maybe Carolina snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, but who cares?).

– It was looking like Brandon Saad was actually just a human, until overtime that is. He missed a penalty shot in the first with a questionable shot location to Darling’s glove side; he had a shitty turnover on a power play in the second where he just managed to bail himself out with a good poke check; and he missed an open net on yet another power play later in the second. But it turns out all of that was just building up the drama to his OT winner, via a beautiful pass from DeBrincat.

– And let’s talk about Top Cat. When he was on the ice with Toews and Panik, he scored. When he was on the ice with Kane and Kero, he scored. When he was on the ice with Lance fucking Bouma he did nothing ARE YOU SEEING A PATTERN HERE. I actually thought his first goal was a PP goal and I was all excited that we scored finally on the power play, but no, I was blinded by the pass from Toews and didn’t realize the penalty had expired. Point being that having DeBrincat on the power play, and having him out there with top talent, will lead to him doing what he’s meant to do. I realize that Q is doing everything he can to sabotage this kid and justify getting rid of him—whether that means sending him down or who knows what the fuck else—but Top Cat is making it impossible and I couldn’t be happier about it.

– Forsling scored to tie the game, so that’s…good…and yet…he’ll play forever now. Granted yes, of course it was a huge relief when they tied it, but in the first Forsling ended up with Seabrook and it led directly to the first Carolina goal. It’s easy to pin that one on Seabrook because it was his shitty positioning and lack of awareness (or inability to move fast enough) that allowed the goal to happen, but still, the two of them shouldn’t ever be responsible for defending anything, and now the new pet has proven all of Q’s assumptions with his first goal, and Kempny will never get out of the Sarlaac pit.

– Speaking of allowing goals to happen, Forsberg had a rather shitty night again. Now, in all fairness I do think that first goal was Seabrook/Forsling’s fault, and the third one was a bit of a fluky shot, but still. He definitely should have had the second goal (and probably the third too). He had some decent positioning but all too often when it mattered, he was moving uncomfortably all over the place. He was lucky to get this win. It may be time to see what Berube or whatever the hell that guy’s name is can do as the back-up. I’m not totally ready to give up on Forsberg yet, but I’m damn close. I just wonder if the organ-I-zation is too.

– I get Movember and all, and obviously I support cancer awareness in any form, but man we are right in the midst of a creepy-douchebag-mustache parade. Anisimov is a prime offender, but the winner has to be Justin Faulk. That guy looked like he was straight out of that Twitter account Super 70s Sports.

– Another useless piece of information I learned tonight thanks to Konroyd was that Skinner Skinner Faster Than Lightning was a figure skater until he was 12. So there’s that.

This was an important win just because the Hawks desperately needed some points, and they needed to prove to themselves that they could come back from a deficit. So much the better that it happened on the road. And it’s nice they got their moms a win; it’s bad enough their moms had to travel to fucking Philly and Raleigh so it was the least they could do. It’s disappointing that the front office knows moms will put up with unending bullshit and so brought them along on a lame road trip, but whatever. Hopefully this will give them some momentum, however slight, and they can start crawling out this hole they’ve dug themselves into. Let’s get Crawford back in net tomorrow. Onward and upward.