Everything Else

Game #70 – I would’ve preferred the extra hour of sleep – Hawks 3, Bruins 1

By Adam Hess 1988 0

Box Score

Hockey Stats

Natural Stat Trick

There is something deeply offensive about the NHL expecting us to watch a hockey game before noon on a damn Sunday. Granted, I’m in Indianapolis so the game started after noon for me, but you get my point. Even the NFL doesn’t ask us to do that except for when they put games in London, and they put uninteresting teams over there on purpose. Then for this game to be the total freakin’ snoozer that it was, I may need to get in touch with an attorney and ask these teams for compensation for my time. To the bullets:

– Brad Marchand sat this one out with what was called an upper body injury. Some people on twitter chalked that part up to the Bruins maybe sitting him after he hit Anthony Duclair with a damn Sling Blade yesterday to avoid any kind of retaliation from the Hawks. Now don’t get me wrong, I know that Brad Marchand is a little chicken shit, but I am here to defend him. I have it on good authority he actually suffered a serious injury to his pea brain this morning after having Daylight Saving Time explained to him.

– For the second straight game I have been responsible for wrapping, the Blackhawks scored two power play goals, and both times came after I tweeted something deriding the PP. Is the Fels Motherfuck contagious?

– Anton Forsberg looked good in this one again, and he’s certainly starting to look more comfortable between the pipes as the year goes on. I’m not yet convinced he’s the ideal backup goaltender for this team next year, but given his contract it wouldn’t be a bad move to keep him around if you can’t find something better.

– Erik Gustafsson has been pretty good since he got his new contract extension, which we around here credit to the Fels Motherfuck. But he got a shitton of power play time today, and while he looked fine in it, I struggled to figure out what he’s shown to earn that time that Gustav Forsling did not when he was here. I’m gonna remain a Forsling apologist until he gets his fair shake at the NHL level, and that has yet to happen. I don’t think the Hawks can call him up anymore without it being an “emergency” call-up, so its not happening this year. But you’re gonna end up next year having a young offensive defenseman with little NHL experience still trying to find his offensive game at the NHL. Good asset management there.

– Jonathan Toews is starting to have better luck, with three points tonight, all of them assists. There’s not much more to gain on this season, but if Toews can end the year strong, that will be a good thing.

– Please don’t make me watch boring ass hockey games before 1pm anymore, NHL. Thanks.

 

Everything Else

Friday Thoughts: Gustafsson, Rutta, And Last Night’s Pummeling

By Sam Fels 2200 0

It’s been a couple days so we should get to it. Whatever your list is of grievances that you’d like to air by firing Stan Bowman, if you have one, you can add two more.

I’m sure the Hawks thought it would slip under the radar, and it kind of did because everything they do these days slips under the radar because almost all of the city doesn’t give a flying fuck about them anymore. Either way, the Hawks re-signed both Eric Gustafsson and Jan Rutta to extensions, and combined they will cost $3.5 million combined next year.

I’m going to try and be reasonable about this….

WHAT IN THE HOLY FUCK IS THIS???!!!!

Now that that’s out, let’s get to it. There’s really no other way to dress this. Both Eric Gustafsson and Jan Rutta suck. They might not be the suckiest bunch of sucks who ever sucked, but they’re not far from the team photo. Neither one of these guys will ever rise to the level of anything more than a third-pairing d-man.

For literally no reason, Stan Bowman doubled Gustafsson’s salary. All he had to offer him was about 700K. Now, you might think the difference of about $500K really isn’t worth worrying about, but as we’ve seen, every dollar counts in a cap era, even if the cap goes up. And Gustafsson has shown nothing to warrant being offered much more than a pointed finger to the door. If he were going to provide offensive spark, we would have seen it by now. He’s 25 and basically never really flashed in the NHL. How much longer are you going to wait? And who was Stan bidding against? Who was coming to save Gustafsson from Chicago?

The Rutta one is even more baffling. He can’t regularly crack the lineup even after the trade of Michal Kempny, and yet you just hand him $2.3 million? What is it he does? Is Stan so fixated by the fact he’s been able to spasm six goals into the net and no one else on the blue line can find the right zip code with their shots? Again, what was Rutta going to get on the open market?

Here’s a list of UFA d-men you could probably get for $2.3 million this summer: Calvin de Haan, Cody Ceci, Luca Sbisa, John Moore, maybe Thomas Hickey, Dalton Prout, the aforementioned Kempny. Most of these guys suck, and yet all of them are better than Rutta.

It’s not like Stan hasn’t been able to admit a mistake. Fuck, he just traded Ryan Hartman and he wasn’t a mistake (and I’m fairly sure that trade is going to work out as having “sucked”). I have no idea why he’s doubling down on these two, but if it costs the Hawks a higher quality free agent this summer or a trade, it honestly probably should be the final nail in his coffin.

-I don’t think we can state long enough and hard enough just how pathetic the Hawks top players were last night. And you can toss out all the caveats you want–Canes are more desperate, they’ve always been a good possession team, blah blah blah–to have Corsi marks under 20% you actually have to try to do so.

I try and reserve myself about games where the Hawks haven’t looked like they care. Losing teams always look “flat,” or at least do most of the time. But the Hawks are a good possession team, or at least they have been. And for their top line and top pairing to simply get skulled by a team that doesn’t actually have a top line is simply unacceptable. You can’t say they were all there, or fully focused, to be that bad.

I can’t ask this team much more than to actually just show up and finish out the season professionally. Last night was anything but. That falls squarely on the leadership. They’re not going to fire Toews and Keith and Seabrook as captains, at least I doubt it. So you know where that goes. But I’m guessing Rocky and McD are too chickenshit to let that happen, nor do they have the scruples to replace Stan competently (which would involve probably firing Q anyway). So if the Hawks don’t care now, why am I going to assume they will next year at this time after another seven months of listening to a coach’s voice it’s becoming more and more apparent they’ve tired of?

Everything Else

Let’s Find Some Hope: Nick Schmaltz

By Sam Fels 1821 0

I know, it isn’t like me to try and find the positives in anything. It’s not what you’re used to after 10 years of being here, if you’ve been here that long (and God help you if you have). But we haven’t been in this position before, so it’s healthy to try and figure out why we’re going to even bother next year (and some of you won’t, and in some ways I envy you).

The Hawks are going to have some decisions to make this summer, which should make for a really interesting one. But before they make those choices, they have to figure out what they have here first. So at the forwards, the Hawks have to decide what Jonathan Toews is and will be. The general consensus is that he’s done as a #1 center, given his scoring problems the past couple years. I’m not so sure about that, given what the underlying numbers say.

But let’s just give into that for the sake of this. Say Jonathan Toews is a #2 center now. That means the Hawks have to find another #1 center, because you can’t really win without one. None of the recent Cup winners have gone without an ace, and it’s hard to even identify teams that got to a Final. Last year’s Preds, because Johansen was hurt, but he got them most of the way there when he played like one. The Rangers of ’14? The Devils of ’12? And really, that’s about it.

The Hawks don’t have one in the system, a product of drafting 25 or above for so long. The only hope is one Nick Schmaltz, who has had a better year mostly playing center than I thought he would. He’s going to finish with 50-60 points at just 21, and at center which isn’t easy to learn. But what’s the precedent for centers who do that? Luckily, thanks to HockeyReference.com, we can find out.

So here’s the list of centers who had 50-60 points in their age 21 season the past 12 seasons: Ryan Strome, Adam Henrique, Derek Stepan, Bo Horvat, Sasha Barkov, Nathan MacKinnon, Jack Eichel, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Brayden Point, Alex Galchenyuk, Ryan Getzlaf, Logan Couture, Pierre-Marc Bouchard.

For the most part, that’s an encouraging list. There are some names that give you pause of course. Ryan Strome is one, though he’s been on a wing for years now. Bouchard never did much after concussion problems. But other than that, the minimum here is a very solid #2 center.

Does that mean Schmaltz could be the #1 one day? Hard to say. Couture has never had to do it but easily could have. Getzlaf is but that wasn’t his rookie year. Same goes for Eichel and MacKinnon. So that might not be the road for Nick At Nite.

We can safely say that Schmaltz can be a #2 center on a good team. But that doesn’t solve your #1 center problem. Can the Hawks live again with like, three #2 centers? It’s hard to think of anyone who has done it. That’s the most likely trajectory for Schmaltz.

It’s funny, for so long the problem the Hawks had was no #2 center behind Toews when Sharp decided he didn’t want to play center anymore. And now it appears they might have too many.

Everything Else

Game #65 – Iron from ice – Hawks 5, Kings 3

By Adam Hess 2112 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

In the interest of full disclosure, I missed like 50 minutes of this game. I forgot it was a day game and I had work. However, I really saw all I needed to see, based on early reports from the game not much happened. But those last 12-ish minutes that I did see were very good. Let’s dig in, breaking down the four goals I witnessed after turning it on at 3-1:

– I cannot tell you how much joy I got out of turning on the television to see Drew Doughty being led to the penalty box only to throw a fucking temper tantrum because his little shitstained diaper hadn’t been properly changed. He slammed his helmet and whined at the referee, earning a second penalty and giving the Hawks 4 minutes of penalty time. They didn’t do much with the first half of it, but were able to keep at it and eventually Wide Dick slammed home a one timer off a rebound to make it 3-2.

– The next goal was a direct result, in my opinion, of Nick Schamltz being really fucking good at hockey. He got a long, cross ice pass floated to him near chest height, which he expertly knocked down with control. Then, being alone in the zone, he slowed up and evaluated the ice with his SuperMan vision (no I am not being hyperbolic) while letting his teammates get up ice, before making a good pass for Dahlstrom to hit a one timer toward the net. That resulted in a really terrible clear attempt by something called Derek Forbort, which fell right to Vinnie Hinnie and he squeaked it through Jonathan Quick’s five hole. Yeah it took a little help, but none of it is possible if Schmaltz doesn’t knock down that tough pass, then have the presence of mind to wait for his teammates and giving Dahlstrom a nice pass to hit toward the net. 3-3.

– I don’t know what got into the power play tonight, but I kid you not they scored two power play goals in one period in this game. I am not entirely sure if it was on purpose, but Kane and Toews found themselves flipped in the formation, with Toews on the right board in one-timer position while Kane was weak side. Kane got the puck at the half board and fucked around with it as he wont to do on the power play, and must admit I loudly groaned while watching him fiddle with it with seemingly no plan. But then, miraculously, he actually waited a passing lane open, and fed Toews with a nice little cross ice pass. Toews settled it for a beat before firing past Quick low blocker side. 4-3.

– The fifth goal was an empty netter that was hilarious because #1 Kane absolutely did not have to put it home. He was all alone on a “breakaway” with just 3 seconds left, but he put it in the net anyway with 2.9 seconds remaining which is just great. But the Kings then wet their diapers even more, as they are known for, with Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty, and Jonathan Quick (who wasn’t even on the ice!) slamming their sticks in such embarrassing fashion you could actually hear audible gasps from the Staples Center crowd on the television. 5-3.

– Just to circle back, the Hawks whole comeback was the result of known fuckstick and giant pissbaby Drew Doughty shitting his diaper in the penalty box because he wasn’t happy he was sent to timeout. That is extremely my shit. I am still in favor of the quasi-tank, but beating the Kings like this, and having it be a result of Doughty being a baby, is so satisfying.

– Another takeaway from this game – that didn’t look like a team that has quit on it’s coach. After a truly shitty second period when they gave up 3 goals, they could’ve taken their ball and gone home. They battled. Don’t count Q out of that job just yet.

Everything Else

Game #60 – I’m behind on what’s really important – Hawks 1, Kings 3

By Adam Hess 2178 0

Box Score

Hockey Stats

Natural Stat Trick

Trying to sum this game up is going to be kinda hard. It’d be way easier if the Hawks played real well and just missed on some chances, or even if they played like absolute trash. Instead, they just looked like they didn’t wanna be there, like how you feel when you’re sitting at work wondering if your job is even that important. And who’s to say? To the bullets:

– I can confidently say one thing that I couldn’t stop noticing in this game is how fuckin’ bad Jordan Oesterle is, which is really a theme at this point and not exclusive to just this game. The first Kings goal was maybe a little questionable because of some maybe-goalie-interference, but Oesterle did nothing to help Forsberg out by standing right in his line of sight and screening the absolutely life out of him. Then later, in the second period I watched Oesterle stand still as a damn statue in the middle of his own zone before getting absolutely toasted in a foot race the other way, which resulted in a 2-on-1 for the Kings. They didn’t convert, but it was just embarrassing to watch, and I kinda wish they had just because it would’ve made that whole play more of a focal point on Oesterle’s part. No matter how much he fucks up he seems to be bulletproof in Q’s eyes right now, while Connor Murphy can’t get more than a third pair assignment and Michal Kempny just got shipped out for a lottery ticket cuz he couldn’t get a fair shake either. Fuck this.

– Q went after the Toews-Kopitar matchup for most of the night, and it saw some success. Toews posted a nice 57.69% CF at 5v5 tonight, which was about a point and a half above team rate. That team number got inflated by some score effects after LA went up 3-0, so I think in reality Toews won that battle very convincingly. I don’t really know what that’s worth, but it just felt like something sorta noteworthy, I guess.

– The worst part about this game was that the Kings worst players pretty much proved to be the difference makers. They got goals from Torey Mitchell, Andy Adreoff, and Dion Phaneuf. Those goals were the fourth, third, and fifth tallies for the scorers this year, respectively. That’s just frustrating to me. I am firmly on the “tank” team at this point, if you wanna call it that, but getting beat by another team’s scrubs is very disheartening. Then again, this team almost lost to Glendale by a touchdown, so nothing is beyond them I guess.

– I don’t really wanna write much more about this one, to be honest. The Blackhawks clearly did not care about this one – why should I?

– The Hawks are back it at home against Ottawa on Wednesday. Hope and pray that one is a chance for Stan to scout EK65 before managing a miracle trade for him to solve all of our problems (I CAN BE OPTIMISTIC, OKAY). Meanwhile LA heads to Winnipeg for a game tomorrow night. Wish them luck on their travels, as they have to take the bus because Winnipeg doesn’t have an airport.

Everything Else

It’s All A Problem

By Sam Fels 2618 0

Carping off Good Sir Pullega’s wrap last night, I’ve basically sat here all morning and thought how last night’s game was the perfect showcase for everything that has gone wrong or afflicts the Hawks this season. And seeing as how it very well could be the final nail in this season’s coffin, it makes it even more poignant. But as you know I love to say, you love last night’s game. It says everything you want to say.

Let’s go through it:

1. Goaltending

We can break down the deficiencies on the Hawks roster from here until the end of the world (currently scheduled for next month), but you’re not going to get past this. Thanks to the CBA and the flattening cap, it’s nearly impossible to get your roster of skaters that much more talented than anyone else. It’s why most teams look the same. Even where you think there are gaps, they’re not as big as you think.

So it’s a goalie league. Look at the top of the standings. Tampa, Boston, Nashville, Winnipeg, Vegas, they’re all getting Vezina-level goaltending or close to it. You cannot base success without it now. It may be a devilish task to find 18 skaters that can separate you from the pack, so it’s a hell of a lot easier to find one goalie.

And the Hawks had it, but now they don’t, and you see the results. You’re tempted to not hang Forsberg completely out to dry as after all the Hawks only scored two goals. But goals change games. If he doesn’t let Pitlick’s blast in, the Hawks go into the third tied. Maybe the Stars are still tempted to lock it down as they did in the third anyway, get their point, and take their chances in the extra frame. But probably not as hard core. Maybe with just a slight loosening or a mistake the Hawks can find another goal. One goal changes the complexion of everything.

Looking back over the schedule since Crow went out, you can find a lot of points that Crow might have gotten them. Upon first glance: new year’s eve against Calgary, Jan. 5th against Vegas, Jan. 10th vs. Minnesota, home to the Leafs, maybe in Vancouver, both games recently against the Flames, and last night. Even conservatively, that’s 7-8 points on the board. How much better would things look? Even boil that down to five and it’s a totally different outlook.

And again, Forsberg is merely a backup. He’s not supposed to save your season. How many teams even have a backup that could? Maybe Saros in Nashville? Do we know that for sure? Khudobin in Boston? We saw what he looked like as a starter in the past. Kuemper is doing a fine impression in LA, but he also remains Darcy Kuemper. Let’s just say it’s rare.

I can’t help but think of Montreal a couple years ago when Carey Price basically missed the whole season. Metrically, and by other measures, the Habs were good that year. But none of it mattered because they didn’t get the saves they were accustomed to getting and needed. Ever. And that was that. Price comes back the next year, they’re basically the same team, and they win the division. When you have a Price-caliber goalie, and that’s what Crawford is despite Pierre McGuire forever muddying the perception of him, there’s simply nothing you can do to make up for the loss of him. It’s pretty simple.

2. The lack of a puck-mover

You saw this last night when the Stars went full-Jabba The Hitch in the 3rd. The Hawks didn’t have any answers. They’re not a team built to dump and chase and rugby their way into chances and goals. And that’s fine if you have a quick and creative blue line. The Hawks do not.

Duncan Keith was never PK Subban or Erik Karlsson. Keith’s springing of the offense in the past was his insane ability to create turnovers just ahead of each blue line with a burst of a first step that simply no one else in the league had. He then immediately got the puck up to the forwards with the other team caught in bad positions. He was not a “wheel it out from behind his own net and carry it 160 feet through three guys” guy. It’s why he’s never been a power play QB either. Well, now he doesn’t have that first step, and is still recalibrating his game to that. At times he’s trying to Roger Federer things and try and force even earlier than he did in the past. But that’s often ending in a mess. And he can’t recover like he could.

Beyond that, there’s just no one else. Gustafsson and Forsling were too busy getting buried in their own end to be that guy. Seabrook… well, if he can’t make the pass from his own circles you know how this goes. Kempy is more in the Oduya model in that he can use his wheels to get out of trouble in his own end but is offensively limited. It’s simply not in Murphy’s job description.

So a team can simply stand up at its line, with no fear of being beaten, and force the Hawks to put it in the corners. Which is where…

3. Lack of a forecheck

Here’s the thing. You don’t have to be a really big team to be a good forechecking one. You just have to be quick and determined. The Hawks were never big but could make this work in the past, though it helped that they had Keith or Oduya or a younger Seabrook and Hammer also ready to force things at the blue line as well and squeezing space. They also had Marian Hossa.

Now? Not so much. And I don’t know that it has to be this way. It’s what Saad was supposed to help with. Hinostroza certainly is willing and fast, though maybe just not strong enough. It’s in Duclair too, and he did cause a couple turnovers last night. It’s still supposed to be a Toews specialty. That’s basically someone on every line.

And yet the Hawks remain remarkable easy to break out against, and the defense behind that much easier to get through once teams do. Granted, this is a Hitchcock team and 1-6 the Stars are as solid on defense as you’ll find. But you still have to find a way to even threaten.

I don’t know if they just don’t want to, or they just gave up on weights in the gym or something, but it really shouldn’t look like this. And it shouldn’t look like them trying to come up with Rembrandts at the blue line trying to avoid this and just giving up the puck there instead. When you have a lead against the Hawks, if you just make them go 200 feet there’s nothing they can do. When they can’t play on the rush, they have no answers.

Sadly, the last two things don’t look like they can be fixed in the coming years either, as they are linked. The Hawks don’t have a puck-moving d-man anywhere near ready, unless they plan to toss Jokiharju into the league at 19 (and maybe he could do that but boy is that an ask). Come next October I’d certainly be more than intrigued at what Top Cat, Schmaltz, Hinostroza, Kampf look like with the experience, along with the addition of Sikura and maybe one or two others. But until the Hawks come up with a definitive answer on their blue line, it’s probably all for naught.

Everything Else

Game #54 – No One Speaks English And Everything’s Broken, And My Stacies Are Soaking Wet – Hawks 2, Stars 4

By John Pullega 2282 0

Box Score

Hockey Stats

Natural Stat Trick

The Hawks, in the words of the inimitable Tom Waits, are a battered old suitcase to a hotel someplace, and a wound that will never heal. To the bullets.

– Brent Seabrook had a positively wonderful game tonight. His pass on Toews’s goal channeled 2013, and his purposely wide shot on Arty the One Man Party’s PP tally was a tangible example of the excellent passing we’ve always loved about him. Plus, his Corsi was a robust 67+ at 5v5. It’s no coincidence that he played the second-fewest minutes of all Hawks D-Men at evens, ahead only of Kempný. I don’t know about you, but even with the Hawks losing, I took solace in watching Seabrook play well. Like hot spiked cider on a cold, unforgiving winter’s night.

– The same can’t be said about Jordan Oesterle. He had a nice run coming out of the press box cold for a while, but the magic beans he’d been consuming to give him that extra giddy-up have gone stale. His turnover behind his own net let Stephen “One of the Ones Who Got Away” Johns do his best Russ Tyler impression, burying a knuckler—that Oesterle himself may have set the screen on—from the blue line for the Stars’s second goal in less than a minute. He also had a couple of miscues in the third that ended up not doing any direct damage, but did lead to extended pressure for the Stars early in the third with the Hawks down one.  Despite this, and his 44+ CF% on the night, he played more than anyone except Keith. This is your D-corps, folks.

– Anthony Duclair seemed half a step behind everything tonight. He whiffed on a wide-open shot off a Toews pass after stealing the puck from Pissbaby Benn late in the first. His turnover in his own zone led to the Stars’s first goal. From about midway through the second onward, he was a ghost. But his possession numbers were stellar (67+ CF%). He’s still got loads of potential and needs to stay up with DeBrincat and Toews, and eventually be re-signed.

– I want to be mad at Anton Forsberg, by my heart just isn’t in it. At the end of the day, he’s a backup goaltender on a team whose D-Men are either rapidly declining, still learning, or flat-out suck. There’s not much he can do on that first goal, with Radulov firing a perfect saucer pass to Tyler Seguin off the Duclair turnover. Having Oesterle screen him on Johns’s shot can sort of be forgiven. And yes, he needs to stop fucking Tyler Pitlick’s slapper at the end of the second. But then again, it’s perfectly fitting that a guy named Pitlick would score the game winner against the Hawks tonight, isn’t it?

– Connor Murphy started the game on the top pairing and looked pretty good doing it. His CF% of 54+ was inspiring. But he was on the ice for two goals. You can argue that he took a bad angle on the first goal, but given how often he’s been flipped and jerked around this year, it’d be a stretch. And we all saw the third goal: That’s on Forsberg. You’d like to see him get more time with Keith, but with the defensive carousel that Q is throttling into overdrive, it’s impossible to tell.

– Erik Gustafsson looks more like a 5-6 D-Man every night. He’s got decent vision with his passing too, at least when Kane’s on the ice with him. I’d be interested to see him with one of Rutta or Kempný at some point.

– David Kampf probably has a future as a bottom six defensive center. His stick checking was pristine tonight, and he won a few board battles to show off his strength.

– It was nice to see Toews score tonight. He also had a 73+ CF%. But he missed a yawning net in the first off a pass through the Royal Road from DeBrincat, either because he wasn’t expecting the pass or because his skate got caught. Microcosms.

– The chocolates and flowers for Tommy Wingels tonight were a bit much. Foley, Jammer, and Burish barely had time to come up for air between all the kisses they blew at him for TROWING HITS OUT DERE. He had one good hit in the third that separated the puck and drew a penalty, but other than that, I don’t get it. He janked an uncontested rebound off the far post and did nothing other than hit guys the rest of the night. I understand the frustration over this team this year. I understand that we don’t really have any answers. But this whole DA FIRE AND DA PASHUN garbage is already wearing thin. Hits have never been the answer for this team, and they sure as shit aren’t the answer now.

– Brandon Saad did not have a good game, again. He logged a 48+ CF% with Schmaltz and Vinnie. He did set up a few good chances that went unanswered. Like all of you, I want to see him come out of his funk. He’s probably best served playing with Schmaltz and Kane again, but I get how it can be hard to justify it right now. At the end of the day, he’s a good player having both a down and unlucky year.

As it stands, this season is circling the drain. As it stands, the Hawks have good young talent on the front lines but not the back end. As it stands, without Corey Crawford, this team doesn’t have the firepower to make the playoffs.  It’s frustrating, it’s out of the ordinary, and it’s hockey, baby.

Onward.

Boozes du Jour: Jefferson’s whiskey into High Life back into whiskey.

Line of the Night: “HIT SOMEONE.” –Adam Burish on how the Hawks could overcome a 3–2 deficit in the third (I usually love Burish, and I get the frustration, but it’s lazy).

Everything Else

Game #53 – Flames vs. Hawks Preview/Non-Stop Ho Down: How Can We Walk Amongst All These Gauntlets?

By Sam Fels 2176 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Flames 26-18-8   Hawks 24-20-8

PUCK DROP: 7:30

TV: NBCSN Chicago

SONS OF OTTO: Flamesnation.ca

The following is getting into “Jimini Jillickers!” territory, but tonight begins a crucial stretch for the Hawks. If that stretch didn’t already start last Saturday. Or after the break. Or a month ago. I’ve declared so many of these fucking things it’s impossible to keep track. The bottom line is the Hawks need to kick this pick if the last month or so of the season is going to matter. And we’ll probably say that again soon.

The Hawks get seven of the next 10 at home, except that hasn’t been a panacea for anything for them this year. Three of those home games are against teams that are with them in the Western muddle around the last playoff spot, tonight against Calgary, next week against the Ducks, and Saturday against the Wild. They basically need to take all three in regulation, plus a few others. If they don’t eat well at home over the next three weeks, then you’ll know it’s over. There’s another thing I’ve said way too often.

Apparently Joel Quenneville gets the desperation, as he’s throwing more shit at the wall in the hopes of proving his geniusness once again. “GENTLEMEN! I HAVE INVENTED….THIS LINEUP!”

It has a new 3rd/4th line, depending on your point of view, of Saad-Hartman-Sharp. I guess there’s some benefit in cloistering your three biggest disappointments altogether, and hoping the mass ennui just turns itself into a positive force. I have no idea what it’s supposed to do, though Hartman and Saad could actually do something if they had a playmaker with them to get them in space where they perform better. Sharp is not that guy, but there aren’t any other options besides Wingels or Bouma so let’s just go with this. Give them the same instructions that have made Jurco-Kampf-Vinnie Smalls successful. Just do shit and do it fast, even if Sharp isn’t capable. Let’s not complicate this.

Of course, no desperate Hawks game would be complete without Q setting up his d-pairs while fingering his own ass, so out goes Connor Murphy again for reasons no one can understand. Especially when it involves giving Jan Rutta and Brent Seabrook more time. It’s ok, not like the Flames didn’t run circles around these two just last time out! Glass Jeff gets the start and poor rebound control.

As for the Flames, they have their own work to do as they sit outside both the wildcard and Pacific playoff picture, which are both open to them. They trail both by one point, and you have to believe this team is going to haul in the Kings because they’re not really any good and the Flames should be. Yes, they have depth scoring problems, though Kris Versteeg seems to be ready to come riding in on his donkey to save the day. Because you know Steeger would ride a donkey instead of a horse. Don’t play. They have the best pairing in the West, a goalie playing pretty well, and a genuine top six. This shouldn’t be that hard but they seem intent on making it so. They’ll be the “Team No One Wants To Play (TM).”

Worth watching tonight is how cute Q gets with his matchups. The top six of the Flames simply stinkfisted the Hawks top six in Calgary, and that doesn’t leave a lot of wiggle room for Q to get both away from Monahan or Backlund. But there are going to be spots when that is necessary, because the Hawks really need this one. He did it on the road in Nashville and in theory it should be easier at home. But it’s not something he’s done a lot of lately, and we all know Rutta is going to start every shift in the d-zone against Monahan and Gaudreau because GENIUS TREE CUPZ YOU DORK!

Just kill me already.

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Jonny…Angry Jonny…This Is Hawks Fans In Hell…

By Sam Fels 2426 0

Well if Poe reference doesn’t officially mark me as too fucking old, nothing will. BUT THAT’S NOT WHY YOU CALLED.

It seems the way of the world these days is that we have to have a referendum on Jonathan Toews every couple of months or so, if not more often. Certainly it’s hard to think of a non-Seabrookian player that’s been more scrutinized this year than the captain. Of course, that comes with the territory of being the captain. You are the barometer, the forefront, the focus. And this is the first time in Toews’s career he’s been under a serious microscope. Even last year when he wasn’t matching his usual points-total, he had a dominant two months in the season and the Hawks were winning. Now he’s not producing and they aren’t winning. The hot lights are only getting more so.

And sadly, there’s little I can add here that’s any different than the last time we did this. A lot will scoff, and I won’t necessarily blame them, but analytically Toews is actually having a better season than he has in the past four. It’s his best CF% season in four, his best relative CF% in four, his best expected goals season in four, best relative in that as well, he’s averaging more attempts personally than he has in five seasons, and his individual expected goals is higher than it’s been in four seasons. These are the numbers.

Toews hasn’t been helped by the fact the power play has been a Chicago construction site for the whole season, though he obviously takes some responsibility for that as well. But say we penciled in ten more points on the power play, three goals and seven assists for him, if this unit was even mediocre. Suddenly Toews’s numbers are 17-26-43 in 52 games. Maybe not what you’d come to expect from Toews because of his past, but that would hardly be bad.

Toews is also somewhat being held up to an impossible standard, namely his simply unconscious season-in-a-can of 2013. Not only was he dominant, he also got a little lucky in terms of his own and the team’s shooting percentage as well. Keep in mind he was on pace for a 43-goal, 83-point season if that one was a full 82, with a 58% Corsi and stupid 62% expected goals. No one’s keeping that pace up.

Toews has seen his shooting-percentage at evens dip for the past three seasons, to the point where just like Marian Hossa we wonder if this isn’t just the new normal. Toews used to be anywhere from 13-16% at evens, and this is his third straight season of being around 8%. Again, it’s hard to pinpoint why this might be. He’s getting the same chances and the same quality of chances, if not better, but they’re not going in. We can’t really measure his release, accuracy, or velocity, and none of these are getting better as the pressure mounts.

Another thing we can’t measure is just how much Toews was asked to do in the past is weighing on him now. Yes, everyone points to the amount of games but that’s hardly the whole picture. After the ’15 season, and even during it, when Marian Hossa’s decline started for real, Toews’s job description became that much harder. Not only was he expected to carry out all his defensive duties low in his own zone, but he also had to be the first forechecker into the offensive one because Hossa just wasn’t getting there like he used to. Or he at least had to get their quicker because Hossa couldn’t Atlas a forecheck by himself for as long as he used to. Because really, who could?

It’s was shaded somewhat by Saad helping out in 2015 with the heavy lifting, but it’s no surprise that Toews’s numbers dropped when Saad left. It was only up to him to take up what Hossa couldn’t do anymore, as Hossa always paid attention to his defensive duties first. He would sacrifice some forecheck to be where he needed to be defensively. And Richard Panik clearly wasn’t enough, at least for anything more than a spurt here or there.

This was obviously the thinking in bringing Saad back. Someone who could get first into the zone and do things while Toews would obviously only have to support. But it hasn’t worked that way. Either with Saad’s in-and-out nights, or the fact that there wasn’t anyone to make anything of the work they are doing. Saad-Toews-Hossa was such an unholy force they didn’t need a playmaker. They could just bludgeon and force and cycle their way into chances. This is what you see Q trying to compensate for with Top Cat flanking Toews and Duclair, with Duclair now assigned what Saad was supposed to be doing. Debrincat has the vision and hands to use up that space being created. Patience and we could see some real numbers from this line very soon.

But that’s not the whole story, is it? Because there are still things you see from Toews on some nights that just don’t look right, do they? Who’s this getting beat back up the ice in OT for the winner against?

That’s not totally fair. It’s overtime 3-on-3 and people get in weird spots. Sean Monahan is younger and faster. That’s just the way things are.

Again here in Vancouver:

There are factors here. Toews is at the end of a PP shift and clearly tired. It’s not his turnover but ADB’s. But there’s a lack of anticipation, some hesitation, that we’re just not used to with Toews no matter the state of his legs on a given shift. And these haven’t been isolated incidents.

To try and explain Toews’s season with one or even two reasons if folly. In some ways it’s been what it’s always been. And he’s also been a victim of watching the league get faster while he might have lost even a half step. You don’t get a half-step in this league anymore. He’s been letdown at times by teammates. He might not be getting any luck again. He and no one else can seem to save themselves on the power play. And there’s probably more.

While I hate to steal a line from “Dark Knight Rises” because it’s terrible, it seems in some ways victory has defeated Toews. Because of him and the way the Hawks played and won and basically ran over the league there for a while. the game had to get faster. Everyone came to the Hawks level or more right at the time when the Hawks couldn’t quite maintain it anymore. It makes the gap look bigger.

Maybe Toews’s focus isn’t what it used to be, and I wouldn’t blame him if it wasn’t. After three rings, two gold medals, a Selke, a Conn Smythe (which should have gone to Keith or Sharp but we’ll save that for another time), there is nothing left for Toews to prove. He could retire tomorrow and be a first ballot Hall of Famer. So if a backcheck in Vancouver in February isn’t quite as important as it was, that seems almost natural.

Toews has also borne the brunt of criticisms for things that have nothing to do with him. His paycheck to start, and you know our policy on that. It wasn’t Toews who shipped off valuable youngsters that would be providing depth now to compensate for dumb contracts either the GM handed out or was forced to hand out. Imagine what Teuvo might have been doing on the other side of Saad and him? If Danault could have picked up some of his checking assignments?

Toews can still save this season, and I would never bet against the man. Because there’s enough here to say that it isn’t as bad as some would have you believe, and it wouldn’t take much for the underlying numbers to turn into tangible results.