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Well Pilgrim, Not Until You Eat The Peanuts Outta My…: FFUD’s Player Reviews – Alex DeBrincat or Perhaps The Most Special of All the Special Boys

By Adam Hess 1670 0

I will never forget the probably irrational joy I felt when Alex DeBrincat and his 100+ point production from the OHL fell to the the Blackhawks at No. 39 in 2016. I was practically screaming at my television for Stan to not join his colleagues in their stupidity in passing up a top-10 talent and arguably the most natural scorer in that draft that wasn’t named Auston Matthews or Patrick Laine just because you could fit in him your pocket. Luckily Stan pulled the trigger, and after just one extra season of development in the O, Top Cat made the jump to the NHL and lit the damn world on fire.

Alex DeBrincat

82 Games, 28 Goals, 24 Assists, 52 Points, +6, 6 PIM

53.76 CF%, 1.85 CF%rel, 48.36 xGF%, -1.62 xGF%rel, 57.19 Zone Start Ratio

And it almost wasn’t that way. Every rumor and news tidbit seemed to indicate that Joel Quenneville wanted our precious boy to start the year in the AHL, but with each passing preseason game in which he looked like one of the best six forwards on the roster (and that number might be generous) it became more evident that not having him on the NHL roster would be a huge mistake.

So when his plan of not having him on the team didn’t work out, Q decided to go an alternate route and just put him in the most assinine roles conceivable. Move a natural left wing to the right? Check. Give him fourth line minutes with Tommy Fuckin’ Wingels and Lance Fuckin’ Bouma? Check. Combine the two? FUCKIN’ CHECK!

Now, it wasn’t always bad for Top Cat in linemate department. In reality, the two centers he spent the most 5v5 time with on the roster were Toews and Schmaltz, and that’s how it should be. The problem is, that sort of thing doesn’t immediately come to mind because again, that’s how it should be, and no one notices when things are going as expected. But they do notice spending 167 minutes opposite Ryan Hartman, or 142 minutes flanking just Artem Anisimov. That’s just 50 less minutes than he spent with Schmaltz.

But this isn’t meant to be a bitch-at-Q-about-usage post, because I already did that with Gustav Forsling. Let’s talk about the good that came from DeBrincat’s season.

He made the squad as a 19 year old, and ended up leading the team in goals with 28, beating out Garbage Dick by one. He tied with Schmaltz and Toews for second on the team in points at 52. Was 8th on the team in CF% and 6th among forwards. And in those times that he did play with subpar linemates, he still managed to play well and at times carry those players. He also is feisty as shit, and doesn’t let his size scare him away from getting scrappy when necessary, which isn’t exactly a big deal but it’s certainly not a bad thing.

There’s not much more to say about Top Cat that hasn’t already been said earlier this year. We’ve heaped praise upon the boy, and for good reason. It’s pretty obvious that Top Cat, along with Schmaltz and a few others, is the future of this team up front, and with that being the case I feel confident in saying this team’s forward group is in good hands moving forward. Top Cap has 35-goal potential if he can just get put and left on a line, and I think it’d make a lot of sense for him to play with Toews and Saad consistently next year.

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Well Pilgrim, Not Until You Eat The Peanuts Outta My…-FFUD’s Player Reviews: Nick Schmaltz or Finally A Light

By Sam Fels 1945 0

It sounds strange, as bad as the Hawks were at times. The thing was, they were rarely boring. And almost all of that came down to their young forwards who burst onto the scene. And perhaps leading that charge was Nick Schmaltz, who was finally left alone to play center (at least most of the season) and proved that’s where he should have been all along. That doesn’t mean there wasn’t incessant bitching about his habit of not shooting enough, but clearly the Hawks have a definite #2 NHL center on their hands, perhaps their best one since before Patrick Sharp decided he was too good or too handsome or too both to play there anymore.

Nick Schmaltz

78 games, 21 goals, 31 assists, 52 points, +1, 18 PIM

50.3 CF%, -2.54 CF% rel, 48.8 xGF%, -1.23 xGF% rel, 64.2 ZSR (zone-start ratio)

Certainly, the entertainment factor with Schmaltz is high. And it’s easy to overestimate his contributions by a touch because he’s so easy to notice. The Hawks might not have had a player faster with the puck consistently than Schmaltz, and his vision opened up a lot of things for his wingers. Stalberg may have been faster but wasn’t nearly as shifty, and neither was Sharp in his heyday. Whether you’re in the arena or just watching at home you know when Schmaltz is on the puck, and it’s easy to think he’s dominating games that way, or at least more is happening than actually is.

Again, you have to look at Schmaltz’s numbers closely because mostly they were accumulated with Patrick Kane, which helps. It also skews how you view his possession numbers. Schmaltz, or at least the Hawks when Schmaltz was out there, outscored what his possession and chance-numbers suggested they should. The thing is this tends to happen with Kane on the ice for years, as he’s never been a great possession player but is so lethal that he’ll usually cash in or set up teammates to do so more than the percentages suggest. Whether Schmaltz can carry this out away from Kane, should this come up at some point next season, remains a question.

There were obviously flaws to Schmaltz’s game. He’s not very big, which led to him getting beaten down low in his own zone a lot and thus getting pinned in there or shifts at a time. This was clearly Q’s main concern, either starting him in the offensive zone as much as possible or discarding him to wing at times as well. As we know, Q doesn’t really like d-men or centers that don’t do everything, and Schmaltz struggles with the own-zone portion of the game. But in an ideal world, the Hawks would have a #1 and #3 centers who could take most of that responsibility, leaving Schmaltz to start a majority of times in the offensive zone. It’s certainly a model other teams have used. So Schmaltz’s future hinges a bit on any Toews revival and/or future acquisitions and whether or not EggShell is anything.

A lot was made of Schmaltz’s pass-happy ways, though he still managed 21 goals which you’d take from a #2 center pretty much every season. The number that jumps out at you is that he shot 17.8% to get there. Given the amount of chances he was getting for himself (0.51 ixGF/60) and what he ended up scoring (0.91 iGF/60) he is going to have to get more chances to get to 20+ goals again because it’s not likely he’s gong to maintain a near 18% shooting-percentage. His rookie year saw one of half that, so let’s split the difference and say he can settle in to a 12-13% shooter.

Outlook: It would be peachy keen if Schmaltz could ascend to a true #1 center and give Toews something of a break. And the list of centers the past decade or so who put up 50+ point seasons at 21 is encouraging (here’s a look if you need). Still, it’s hard to look at Schmaltz’s size and skillset and think he won’t always need to be at least a little sheltered in terms of shifts and opposition. But being Robin to someone else’s Batman is hardly a bad role to be, and one a team needs to be successful. Yes, it counts on getting anything more from Toews, though that’s hardly an impossibility. Schmaltz will be in a contract year next season, so if he’s going to pop for ace numbers, now would be the time. But he can definitely count himself a piece.

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Game #77 – Sharks vs. Hawks Preview/Bullet Club Reunion: But Just A Glimpse

By Sam Fels 1918 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Sharks 43-23-9   Hawks 31-36-9

PUCK DROP: 7:30

TV: NBCSN Chicago

THEY CAN’T AFFORD IT EITHER: Fear The Fin

A friend of the program, one Kevin Kujawa–guitarist and singer for great local band of the past Mannequin Men– used to refer to the first game after the trade deadline as “New Toy Day.” Well, the Hawks didn’t get that this year as it was clearance sale time, but Hawks fans will get some of that this week as the Hawks show off what they hope will be a couple pieces that matter in the future.

The first one arrives tonight in Victor Ejdsell, probably referred to from here on out as “Eggshell.” He’s a big center, whom they’re probably already envisioning taking Anismov’s place so they can punt him to the nearest taker this summer that’s also on his list (YOU’RE ON OUR LIST. HE NAMED NAMES!). Ejdsell comes with plus-hands, so we’re told, though the Hawks are probably already telling him to get his ass to the front of the net which will kneecap his playmaking abilities we’re told he has a bit. Whatever, there will be plenty of time to worry about that next year. The big concern is whether or not he can skate enough to make any of it matter, or if he’s just a monolith the Hawks hope they can park at the other crease but which hurts you in every other aspect. He’d better be the former, otherwise the trade of a definitely useful Ryan Hartman is just simply running in place (because he was a first-round pick at #30, which seemingly everyone evaluating that trade forgot). The Hawks were after Ejdsell when he chose the Predators, and generally the European players they’ve been hot on tend to work out at least ok (Jan Rutta excluded and they’re going to give that one another go anyway).

The other one is Dylan Sikura, who will arrive Thursday. We’ll talk more about him then but he’ll be an interesting watch because he’s got a big chance to more than just ballast on the team next year, even if he’s in desperate need of a sandwich. Just a shame he couldn’t bring Adam Gaudette with him.

As for the rest of the story with the Hawks, there isn’t one really. Toews is still out, with some mystery injury that definitely isn’t either “tired of this shit” or “has been playing with something for months and can’t be bothered anymore but don’t think it’s a head injury” or “we’re actually trying to tank.” After Anton Forsberg looked decent against the Isles he’ll get the start again, but we know what it’s looked like when he’s tried to put two starts together. So JF Berube should probably be properly warmed and stretched, as Q pulls a goalie switch for the 46th time this season.

This game matters a little to the Sharks, though not that much. They’ve pretty much held off either the Kings or Ducks for the second spot in the Pacific, especially with the seven-game winning streak they’re currently on (you can do that?). They’re four up on the Ducks and have a game in hand, and six up on the Kings with a game in hand. So they’ll start the playoffs at home against either, and really they should beat either. But these are the Sharks, and without a healthy Thornton anything is possible for them. Pavelski has been great at center, and that should be enough to see off either of their California brethren. But again, the Sharks have found a way in the past to drive their car into a swimming pool.

After a hiccup around the turn of the year, Martin Jones has been excellent the past two months and the Sharks would enter either series with the better goalie, which is a leg up (sorry Jonathan Quick but we know what you are). While it doesn’t jump out at you, the Sharks are deeper than most teams even without Thornton. Pavelski and Evander “I’m The Other Fuckstick Named…” Kane have been quite the force on the top line, Couture and Hertl have dovetailed on the second line, and Tierney andLeBanc have been a surprise on the third. A Thornton return along with Joonas Donskoi (who’s only day-to-day) only adds to that. They’ll be deeper up front than either the Ducks or Kings, that’s for sure.

You know the story on the blue line. Marc-Eduoard “This Is What Seabrook Was Supposed To Be” Vlasic and Justin Braun are the human shield for Brent Burns on the second pairing, and he simply runs wild. Again, a unique weapon to have. And Brenden Dillon and Dylan “Fine And” DeMelo on the third pairing aren’t really a disaster. Again, sneaky depth.

Even with all that, it’s hard to know if the Sharks are that good. Their special teams for sure are, and that’s gotten them a long way. But this is one of the more boring Sharks teams we can remember, who play in a terrible division and when you watch them nothing really jumps out. Then again, that’s the exact kind of team that comes alive in the playoffs when things get choppier. Secondly, in that division there’s no one who’s going to turn up the pace on them that they can’t handle, which is what Edmonton did last year and the Penguins the year before. You could see if they ran into a misplaced Colorado team in the second round where that could be a problem, but that’s one line and specifically one guy. Vegas, if it somehow shambles its way out of the first round even without Fleury, will see it all pop against the vastly more experienced Sharks. Really, this team merely has to stand still to get to a conference final, where it probably will be laced by Nashville or Winnipeg, assuming there’s anything left of either of those teams after they’re done bludgeoning each other in the second round.

Let’s have fun with our new toys these last two weeks. It’s all we got.

Game #77 Preview

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Game #75 – I’ll probably die anonymous – Hawks 2, Canucks 5

By Adam Hess 2068 0

Box Score

Hockey Stats

Natural Stat Trick

This one was a real shit show, and that all started this afternoon before the game even started. I have some questions. Let’s get right to the bullets:

– So let’s get to the one that I think is the most glaring: what the heck was this lineup? Please don’t get me wrong, I know that with Toews out with an “upper body injury” aka getting his offseason started a bit early, there aren’t a lot of really good options available. But why aren’t you just top-loading then and putting Top Cat and Kane on the wings of Schmaltz? With Toews and Duclair out, you really only have 4 players worthy of top-six minutes – these three and Saad. You’re out of the playoffs already, and the league is trending toward the top-heavy lineups already. There’s no value in “depth” or “balance” in your lines at this point. Even though it’s just the Canucks, let your two young guns – who are the future of your forward group, by the way – take on the top competition with your best player and see what they can do.

– My next question: Why are we still trying this Oesterle thing? His contract is fine, of course, but that’s only because he had done jack and shit before getting here. He’s been actively bad all year. I guess I sorta see the goal in pairing him with Murphy, who has been good, and hoping it evens out, but I’m just not sure what Oesterle is giving you that Dahlstrom’t or Forsling didn’t, and those two are obviously going to be more integral to the future success of this team than Jordan Fuckin’ Oesterle. Nothing to play for, so why not just claim Keith is hurt, use an “emergency” recall for Forlsing, and use him in that role instead and see what happens? Yes I know Keith probably wouldn’t play along. Put some legos in front of his locker or something.

– Thirdly: what’s your best guess on career NHL games played for JF Berube after this season? Because teams often get desperate for backups, I’ll go optimistic and say he probably gets another two or so years to see if he can be that. Which will be hilarious for whatever team that is (it’ll be this one) because he is very clearly NOT that. I’m setting the over under for him at 55.5. What do you got?

– I’m out of questions, but I have some more thoughts. Sam put on Twitter tonight that sitting Toews is the best outcome for the pro-tank people, like myself. That’s pretty obvious. The only way it could get more tank-y would be to sit Keith as I said before, or maybe Kane, but I doubt either wants to play along, and I certainly am not about to give Kane any longer of an offseason than he deserves (don’t forget, we’re three years since his last act of menace, so we’re on pace for another one). But I’m not sure how much actual value is in that. Even if you get to 4th-to-last place, you’re only improving your draft odds by about 1.5%. Maybe giving Keith the rest is worth it, if he wants it, but I think even with him in the lineup this team is bad enough to slip, and teams like Detroit, Monteal, and Ottawa will probably fuck up by going on a run to close the year out. So basically what I’m after here is, leave Toews out, see if Keith wants to sit, and start praying to whichever diety you follow that the ping pong balls go our way.

– To close out on a high note, I want to wish my sincere congratulations and well wishes to Eddie Olczyk on him kicking cancer’s ass. Having a few family members who have done it, as well as a friend and co-worker here in Rose, it makes me happy as hell to hear every time someone tells cancer to get fucked. I am very happy for Edzo and hope for only good health for him in the future. And on a selfish level, the less Steve Konroyd we have to deal with, the better. Fuck Cancer.

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Game #75 – Canucks vs. Hawks Preview/Pegging Session: Friends And Family Only

By Sam Fels 1835 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Canucks 25-39-9   Hawks 30-35-9

PUCK DROP: 7:30

TV: NBCSN

OUR FELLOW WALLOWERS: Nucks Misconduct

Look people, I’ll level with you. We’ve done our best to maintain the same standard throughout this season. You’ve earned and expected and paid for that. Even though this season has spiraled into the hell toilet, we’ve tried to treat every game the same, because it’s still the Hawks and it’s what we do and such. And there’s only a few of these left, the finish line is in sight, and we’ve got enough wind to make it through to it with our energy intact.

But this one…

Good lord. I mean these are the games the marketing team wakes up in a cold sweat thinking about. This is the type where it becomes real just how much of a fart-gone-wrong this season has been. Two bad teams battling in front of people who aren’t quite sure how they got there and what it says about them that they are there (unless you know exactly what it says that you are there, and that’s never, ever good). A game that will take place basically in a vacuum within the walls of the United Center. It might not even get highlights on “On The Fly” or TSN. Oh sure, there will be cameras there and it will be broadcast, but will any of you admit to watching it to anyone you care about?

We used to be accustomed to these. Hell, all 82 Hawks games in certain seasons were basically this. We had left these behind a decade ago, but now they’re back. A stark illustration of what both teams have become. Someone will win, but no one will know why.

So I’m not going to dress it up for you. The Canucks blow, and they’re dumb, and they appear like they’re going to be both for a very long time. The Sedins are old and Passy Twin can’t score at all but they can still spasm offense here and there. Brock Boeser is hurt and he was the only reason to bother at all. Reid Boucher is on this team, which is the international language for, “This Team Isn’t Worth Anyone’s Time.”

The Hawks blow. I’m not sure they’re dumb but I’m also not sure that they’re not. Toews is hurt so there’s even less to make them watchable. Vinnie Hinostroza will play center, which hasn’t worked well in the past. But now it doesn’t matter. JF Berube will start, because the rules say you have to have a goalie. Actually, do they? Maybe the Hawks should try it.

Please, for the love of all that you hold dear, leave this one to us truly sick and twisted. We can’t be saved, but you can. Don’t do this to yourself. We have no choice.

 

Game #75 Preview

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Game #74 – Can Someone Tell Me When Something Good Became So Bad – Hawks 1, Avalanche 5

By John Pullega 1993 0

Box Score

Hockey Stats

Natural Stat Trick

The last three minutes of this game were the most pathetic display of hockey I’ve seen from the Hawks all year. The Hawks are officially and mercifully out of playoff contention. To the bullets.

– Let’s get the worst part out of the way. The last two goals the Hawks gave up were the direct result of defensemen flat out giving up. First, Seabrook watched the puck roll into the net on the empty netter. He half-assed his way back toward the puck as it exited the Avs’s zone, and only started busting it when he realized it was going to go in. A guy with his lack of speed cannot half-ass his way back to anything. Whether the Hawks had any shot at coming back is irrelevant. That sort of lack of effort would get anyone else (e.g., Connor Murphy) benched, but since he managed the Hawks’s only goal, and he’s Brent Seabrook, he’ll be right back out there Thursday. Unless he was hurt from the Comeau hit, his effort was simply unacceptable, especially with the “A” on his sweater.

Then, Oesterle found himself strolling back on the last goal after jumping into the play on the offensive end, watching Kerfoot pot an uncontested shot while he trailed like an unwanted puppy. Of all the things the Hawks have done this year, the last three minutes of this game may have been the most embarrassing.

– The whole giving up at the end thing really tarnished what was an otherwise decent effort. The Hawks clobbered the Avs in possession, posting 65+ CF%s in the second and third but, as is wont to happen when they play Varlamov, they simply couldn’t find the net. With the game still in reach, the Hawks managed to hit a post and Landeskog’s stick before the puck squirted out of the blue paint. At least some things never change, and horsing the Avs in possession and still losing looks like it’ll always be that shitty totem we go back to.

– Patrick Kane put his entire ass into this game for the most part. He was flying around the ice and drew so much attention on the PP that Seabrook managed a half slapper all by himself for the Hawks’s only goal. And even though Varlamov stopped it, watching Kane wind up for a FUCK YOU slapshot in the third was kind of cathartic.

– Whatever offensive upside Gustafsson has is buried by his complete inability to do anything right on defense. His whiff on a clearing attempt in the blue paint in the second nearly cost the Hawks a goal. He took a completely unnecessary icing penalty in the first. Then, also in the first, after jumping in on the play and taking a shot, he failed to get back, leaving Seabrook all by himself on a 2 on 1. Oh, and he had the lowest Corsi for the Hawks tonight, with a 42+ at evens. The team rate was a 58+. Bravo.

– And Seabrook was right behind him. I get that this year is now officially lost, and so it’s time to experiment a bit. But there’s no doubt that Gustafsson and Seabrook absolutely cannot play together regularly. Gustafsson is too reckless and unaware, and Seabrook is too slow and apparently unmotivated to cover. If this is the second pairing next year, then Rocky’s going to have to get off his fat ass and make some phone calls.

– After clubbing the MacKinnon line in the first, Saad–Toews–Kane fell apart. Each ended below water in possession for the game, despite a strong performance against the MacKinnon line on the night. And Saad looked either nonplussed or uninterested for most of the night, especially on the Avs’s second goal. While MacKinnon’s patience was the key to that goal, watching Saad sort of float in the Royal Road while MacKinnon stick handled in anticipation for a lane surely didn’t inspire confidence. He, more than anyone, needs next year to be here.

The only thing to worry about over the rest of this year is preventing injuries and seeing what the younger guys can do. I’ll be keeping an eye on Schmaltz, Vinnie, Kampf, Top Cat, Saad (pray for Mojo), and Murphy.

Just eight more, then this nightmare is over.

Beer du Jour: Left Hand Milk Stout and Guinness

Line of the Night: “He has one of the longest sticks and he uses it so well.” –Peter McNab describing Alex DeBrincat, who, despite being named the Player of the Year by the Blackhawks, continues to play on the third line with Artem Fucking Anisimov and Tomas Motherfucking Jurco.

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Game #72 – The Blarney Stone Brings A Tear To Me Eye – Hawks 3, Sabres 5

By John Pullega 1869 0

Box Score

Corsica

Natural Stat Trick

Kent O’Brockman once said that on St. Patrick’s Day, “Everyone is a little bit Irish, except of course for the gays and the Italians,” which is why you’re stuck with me for the wrap of this horseshit game. Let’s get to it and keep it brief, as there’s drinking to be done. To the bullets.

– When it mattered most, the Hawks dropped all of the corned beef they’d been cooking. After a ho-hum first, the Hawks looked more like the Hawks we’ve paid for in the past than the Hawks we’re currently paying for, posting a nice 69+ CF%. But the wheels came off in the third, as the Hawks got pantsed in possession by the (now second) worst team in the league, getting pasted for a 37+ CF% at evens. I assume that like many of us, they were looking forward to doing anything but subjecting themselves to Blackhawks hockey, and it showed.

– On his special day, our Large Irish Son had what could best be described as a mixed bag of a game. Murphy found himself on the third pairing with Oesterle and looked spry early, leading the Hawks with three shots on goal in the first. He also ended the game with a 65+ CF% and looked to be more aggressive on the rush, crashing and joining the play deep more often than I’ve ever seen.

But he also found himself on the ice for all three of Buffalo’s 5v5 goals. He was partially to blame for the Sabres’s first goal, as he overcommitted on Reinhart on the far boards. This, coupled with Patrick Sharp getting caught staring at whatever it is washed up wingers playing to a three-fourths-full stadium in Buffalo look at, gave Reinhart a gaping lane through the Royal Road to Ristolainen, who swept a pass past Jordan Oesterle and onto Pouliot’s backhand for a messy goal. The other two came off tips from Nicholas “Don’t Call Me Jean” Baptiste, so it’s hard to blame him for that. Still, we’ll have to watch going forward to see what it is Murphy might be. I will die on the “he’s the best D-man the Hawks have” hill, but there are some questions that I have regarding his awareness and positioning. Certainly not giving up hope, but there are questions.

– Highmore–Schmaltz–Vinnie was world beating for the first two periods. Granted, it’s against Buffalo, but the speed and vision they showed was encouraging. Each ended well above the team rate in possession and showed a decent amount of chemistry together. They all need to add some meat to their respective asses if they want to compete against better teams in terms of possession, but with Vinnie’s speed and shot, Schmaltz’s hands and vision, and a sort of snarl that Highmore has shown over the last two games, this is a line to watch going forward, assuming they stay together.

– Brandon Saad’s woes continued today. He shanked a few opportunities right in front of the net and was trounced in possession, posting a 42+ CF% for the game (-12.10 CF% Rel). Again, he’s not one I’m willing to give up on, but it’s frustrating to watch him struggle. It doesn’t help that his linemates couldn’t be bothered to give a shit for the first half of the game, but it’s not an excuse.

– I was four beers in by the end of the first period, but even I couldn’t believe that Alex DeBrincat was playing with Stonehand Tommy and Stonefoot Artie for this one. Alex DeBrincat isn’t a fucking third liner. I know that he hasn’t had much offensive luck over the last 10 or 12 games, but how does putting him on the ice with a guy who can’t move and a guy who can’t stick handle solve that? I guess it’s hard to figure out where to put him if you’re committed to 20–19–88, but with talent like his, it seems like you’d want to nurture it, not dampen it.

– I seem to get every J-F Berube start these days, and I always say some variation of, “He looked good for a guy who allowed more goals than good goalies allow.” I’ll say it again about today. The first goal was more on Murphy and Sharp than him, the second was on a fluke bounce on the PK, and the last two were off high-traffic tips. I’m not sure what else he can do, and I’m curious to see whether he’s the guy backing up Crow next year. I’d want to look at more tape, but he just seems more in control when he’s out there than Forsberg.

– Toews scored his 20th goal today, which was off a big rebound from Every Fraternity Chapter’s President Chad Johnson. He’s been on a nice roll offensively lately, which is nice to see as the season winds down.

– Foley had all the energy and faith of a man who had just gotten pick pocketed at his church on Good Friday, which makes for interesting listening. Sort of like a high school football broadcast by a student whose crush rejected him for homecoming. But watching him froth over a picture of a Sabres’s fourth liner punching some other hockey player I can’t be bothered to look up in the face while stereotypical Irish music played in the background during a stoppage was the most hilarious thing about this game, hands down.

Just 10 more of these things to go. Happy St. Patrick’s Day to you all today, Happy St. Joseph’s Day to the rest of you for tomorrow. The end is mercifully near.

Beer du Jour: Guinness, because Italians don’t know how to make beer.

Line of the Night: “Let’s see how green his tongue is at about midnight tonight!” –Foley on Adam Burish

“Ehhhh. . .” –Konroyd’s response

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Let’s Find Some Hope: Let’s Buy John Tavares

By Sam Fels 4902 0

Ride the snake.

Ok, so you’re Stan Bowman. Yes, you’re quite bald. It’s ok. The world doesn’t end if everyone can see the top of your head. Trust me. Anyway, though you may have gone to the higher-ups last summer and told them you have a plan to rebuild the roster on-the-fly, and even if they totally believed you, you’re under serious pressure. No matter what you laid out to Rocky and McDonough, probably using very small hockey words, this is not what you told them would happen. Sure, you can claim Corey Crawford getting hurt is the same as Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady or Drew Brees getting hurt, such was his importance to his team. And that’s not even wrong. And hell, they may even go with you on that. But a year missing the playoffs this badly after two first-round exits still has them more in a “glower” position than “hopeful.” You need results and you need them next year.

And sure, if you do actually get analytical instead of just telling us you do because that’s what you think everyone wants you to say, you could play it safe with a move here or there, knowing that there’s every chance Crow stays healthy next year, Toews’s and Saad’s SH% pop back up simply because HOCKEY!, Top Cat and Schmaltz continue to grow, Sikura is just as good as you think he is, and Vinnie Hinostroza has a breakout year that his metrics suggest he very well could. Hell, maybe even Duncan Keith can play the hits for just one more season. Hell, that’s a playoff team there. You make one move at the deadline, and maybe it’s even more.

Still, the higher-ups want more. If all those things don’t happen, you’re out on your ass. Yes, with your resume and last name and this being HOCKEY! you probably won’t be out of a job long. But is that how you’re goin’ out? Like some punk “with a plan?” Or you firing all the guns at once, knowing if it doesn’t work it’s going to be someone else’s problem anyway? You only have max one or two seasons to do anything with this group anyway. Clock’s ticking. You say, “Fuck it. you only live once and dyin’ would be a stone groove.”

You sign John Tavares. $11 million a year. $12 million a year, who fucking cares? This is your blaze of glory. Win next year and ain’t no one gonna give a shit about a fuck.

“But Sam,” you’re saying out there, “there’s no way the Hawks could do that!” Well, actually there is.

Right now, the Hawks will have about $12 million in cap space if the cap goes up to $80 million as has been rumored. And that’s if they don’t find a way to shuffle off Hossa’s hit to some hinterland hockey landfill. Or they could do what they didn’t do last summer and just use it in the summer and white-knuckle it through the season. Again, if you’re Stan Bowman, you need results next season or you’re toast. It’s time for risk. So either moving Hossa’s contract or just using his LTIR gives the Hawks damn near $18 million to play with. Fuck and yes. It could be more if you can flog Artem Anisimov to some destination without taking too much money back.

You basically have no one to re-sign. You can punt Patrick Sharp to the bunny farm upstate where he’s longed to be for two seasons. Anthony Duclair won’t have warranted more than the 10% raise he’s due as an RFA, which is $1.5 million or so. We love Vinnie Smalls, but he’s not getting any more than $1 or $1.2 million. So you’re still just south of $16 mildo to play with. That’s plenty for the $11-12M you’d have to throw at Tavares.

“But Sam,” you’re saying, “Tavares is a pretty low-key guy. He’s not going to want to come here!” Shut up, moron. Let me disabuse you of that notion.

One, this is not a testing hockey market. You’ve seen that. It’s the NHL’s fourth biggest market, yes. But no one cares when the Hawks are bad. Look at it now. These guys facing really hard questions every practice? There’s like three full-time beat reporters for fuck’s sake. No one’s talking about them on the radio or TV. You don’t have a roundtable of concussed ex players/drunk writers with an hour to tell you why you suck. They’re talking about Kris Bryant here. There’s no Steve Simmons to get up your ass, and I’ll be bored and old next year. I ain’t gonna bother ya. You can fly under the radar here easy.

Second, even if there is “furor,” that’s Toews’s job. Or Kane’s, I suppose. Seabrook’s. You’re not first in the firing line. Tavares could play his hockey and go home. But it’s just big enough to keep him in the endorsements/advertisements world if he so desires.

So that makes it a more desirable destination for him than say, Montreal or Toronto or even Vancouver. We’ll circle back to this.

Your top six, if Stan goes Wild West:

Saad-Tavares-Hinostroza/Duclair

Top Cat-Toews-Kane

Sure, you could arrange this several ways. But Tavares has gotten Anders Lee a 35+ goal season and there’s nothing Anders Lee can do that Brandon Saad can’t. This team scores, especially with Schmaltz as a #3 center simply clocking whatever bums he finds across from him with Sikura and whichever of Hinostroza or Duclair is not on the top six. It scores a lot.

“Sam!” you’ll exclaim, “how are the Hawks going to afford all of Kane, Toews, Tavares, Seabrook, Keith, Saad, and then raises for Schmaltz or DeBrincat or more?” There’s going to be another lockout, you ninny. They can hit the reset button on one or two of these deals under a new system. And you’re probably fucked by that point anyway.

“But Sam,” you’ll interject, “this does nothing to solve an already porous blue line!” Fuck you! I can’t do everything here!

Ok yeah, your blue line would still suck and you can’t get out of the Central or West without one. The free agent class of d-men makes you vomit all the colors of the rainbow. You don’t have the pieces to acquire Erik Karlsson, unless you’re comfortable moving Schmaltz for him. Which you might be after signing Tavares, I don’t know. Maybe you find a way to pry OEL loose at the deadline. Maybe when Vegas reverts back to being an expansion team next year they loose Nate Schmidt before he’s a free agent. There are solutions to every problem.

“But Sam,” you say as I get more annoyed with your pragmatism, “everyone’s going to want Tavares and the Hawks haven’t won a bidding war since Hossa!”

Yeah ok, fine. They haven’t even really tried either. They wanted us to believe they were in on Zach Parise in ’12, though I have my doubts. But the Hawks name and market is still an awfully big draw, especially when you consider Tavares has already been on a Team Canada with Toews and Keith.

He’s not going to Montreal. Who wants to deal with that shit? Toronto doesn’t need nor can afford him. Vancouver is clueless and stupid. Tampa… ok, well that could be a problem if they can lose Callahan’s bloated checks for looking angry. But maybe they want to keep their powder dry for the entire bank chain they’re going to have to hand to Kucherov. Or maybe they’re still after Karlsson. Is Florida going to make a splash? Weather and state income tax aversion are nice, but that team isn’t that much more attractive than the Hawks in the near-term? Detroit might be more clueless and stupid than Vancouver. The Rangers are rebuilding. The Islanders won’t have a home for two or three years. The only language really here is green. Tell me you’re not starting to see it. Tell me a grin isn’t slowly spreading across your face.

C’mon Stan, let’s get nuts. You really don’t have anything to lose.

Everything Else

What Do You Do With Duncan Keith So Early In The Morning?

By Sam Fels 2402 0

A couple weeks ago, our colleague and probably the most flowing lochs in the Hawks blogosphere Chris Block gave his state of the Hawks post. There’s a lot in there, some of which you might not have known, but there’s one part of it I’ve been meaning to dive deeper into. I do encourage you to read the whole thing though, and then give Chris a hard time for bailing out of doing Wrestlemania with me even though it was his idea.

At the end of this, Block ruminates on whether or not the Hawks should at least kick the tires on moving Duncan Keith this summer. The reasons are pretty clear. The Hawks have to get out from under some of their ridiculous contracts (although Keith has been worth every penny, any contract that runs 13 years has to be considered ridiculous). Keith is getting older. While the hit remains the same the actual salary starts diving next year making him even more affordable than he already was. And Keith is aging, and not all that gracefully at that.

We’ve talked about it a few times over the years, but looking for Keith precedents in previous players is a hard thing to do. Few d-men have dominated games and seasons simply on quickness and instincts, as Keith did for far longer than he had any right to. One name we have used is Scott Niedermayer. He retired after his age-36 season (Keith will be entering his age-35 season next year). And Niedermayer was more offensively gifted than Keith and by some distance. The hands don’t go away even if the feet do. Keith has no such attributes to fall back on.

Yes, Nick Lidstrom played until he was 41, and comedically won a Norris at 40 simply because voters didn’t know they could vote for anyone else. But Lidstrom’s game was much more calm than Keith’s, sort of letting things come to him and simply being ahead of everything in his mind. There was no high-wire with Lidstrom. Keith’s game has been all high-wire since the moment he arrived and looked like a kindergartner who got hold of Jolt Cola (dated reference alert).

Watching Keith this year has been mostly an uncomfortable experience. You can see his computer trying to recalibrate with how to play knowing he can’t take all the risks and be as aggressive as he used to be. Keith could actually do a lot of things wrong in the past and his quickness would allow recovery to see him get away with it. He could venture outside the circles in his own zone, he could chase more in to the corners or behind the net, he could skate into more traffic with the puck and squirt out. He can’t really do all of those things anymore, but the internal mechanism is still saying he can too often. His instincts and brain constantly seem to be at odds.

That doesn’t mean Keith is useless or a complete anchor, as say Seabrook has been at times this season. He hasn’t been anything like a ghost like Sharp has been on most nights, to use two his contemporaries. To me, the worst case scenario with Keith is that he can be an effective second-pairing d-man, and probably can for a couple more seasons. And I think he could do that in a couple of ways. Against easier competition he could still push the play up the ice as he used to. Or you could just use him as a human shield as Oduya was used here, or Dan Hamhuis is used in Dallas right now, or Pesce and Slavin are used in Carolina, or a few other examples. You’d ask no offensive or puck-moving responsibility of him, and just have him basically keep the puck out of his net against top lines while whoever is designated for the top pairing role can simply run over what they see.

But therein lies the problem. Whichever you choose to do with Keith, you then have to solve your top pairing problem. I’m one of the few who is comfortable with Connor Murphy as one half of that, but you need the other half and that’s the half that has to be the possession monster. That’s the half that has to get up and push the play, join the offense, and score. And right now, that’s nowhere near in the Hawks system. Unless by some miracle they think Henri Jokiharju can do that next season. I suppose Ivan Provorov went straight from the WHL to the Flyers, so it can happen. But he wasn’t asked to play on the top pairing either. We know it ain’t gonna be Gustav Forsling either.

Keith would still have value to other teams, if he were to waive his NMC. Off the top of my head, the Islanders, Leafs, Flames, Oilers, Canadiens are all teams that have defensive depth issues that want to win sharpish. We could probably figure out a couple other teams that would at least make a call, even with Keith’s age and expense.

But still, does Keith get you back a young, top-pairing potential d-man? Skeptical of that. If you’re just swapping him out for more mid-pairing or bottom-pairing flotsam, I don’t know that moves you forward. Yeah, if you can get the Oilers to give up on Nurse, go right ahead. And I guess they’re capable of any kind of stupidity.

For the Hawks, Keith is almost certainly the most movable of “the core.” They wouldn’t ever dare move Toews or Kane, given how their entire marketing strategy has been built on them, problematically at times, for going on 11 years now. Seabrook’s play has made his deal immovable. Keith has never had the connection with the Hawks that the two forwards do. You don’t see him on the Chevy ads or the posters, and that’s mostly because he doesn’t have much interest. Keith is also the only one you see openly flouting McD’s rules about how to be presented during interviews and such. He clearly just does not give a fuck about that aspect of being a pro hockey player, and honestly more power to him. While on the ice Keith has been the most important cog to the Hawks success (and he has, don’t even play), he hasn’t been nearly as important to the Hawks off it. And don’t think that wouldn’t play a role.

Still, I doubt the Hawks and Stan Bowman would do this unless they got some offer they couldn’t refuse. But it seems more plausible than it did even just a month or two ago.