Everything Else

See, This Is The Kind Of Thing We’re Always Yelling About

By Sam Fels 2121 0

It wouldn’t be a good idea to use the New York Islanders as a barometer for what common thinking is in the NHL. Jon Ledecky and Scott Malkin are… well, we don’t really know but I’m going to go ahead and guess they’re not going to be mentioned with Socrates or Plato or Vecini. They got their new stadium, and good for them, because the Isles need it. They’ve kept around Garth Snow for too long, and making a change is probably a good idea.

But hiring Lou Lamoriello is the kind of dinosaur thinking and Old Boys Club that keeps this league squarely in its own ass, and why things like the Vegas Golden Knights can happen.

Ol’ Lou is a Hall of Famer, and rightly so. He built something of a dynasty in New Jersey, even if it was the last place anyone wanted one and it was the last team you’d ever want to watch. And maybe, yeah, they set the sport back a decade or six with the neutral zone trap. But hey, it worked, it won, no one was really doing it, and the NHL was flat-footed in figuring out how to stop it, or even figuring out it needed to stop it. Except the Red Wings kind of did it with Scotty Bowman and the left-wing lock but we’ll leave that for another time. The Devils perfected it, and Lou brought through guys like Brodeur, Stevens, Elias, Daneyo, Gomez, Sykora, Niedermayer, et al.

Here’s the thing with Lou, though. Aside from that goofy Final appearance in 2012 that really doesn’t make any sense other than the entire Eastern Conference went for shawarma or something, four of the last five Devils teams missed the playoffs, and only one of them came anywhere close. The previous three before that went out in the first round. So for over a decade, Lou’s Devils teams made it out of the first round three times. They missed the playoffs four times. This isn’t exactly a glittering record as the game sped up and got more open.

As for this current Devils team, the one that did make the playoffs and was actually something more than a torture device to get people to talk when you watched them, Lou’s fingerprints aren’t really present. Their core players are as follows:

Taylor Hall – traded for after Lou left

Nico Hischier – drafted after Lou

Kyle Palmieri – signed after Lou

Will Butcher – signed after Lou

Jesper Bratt – drafted by Lou

Miles Wood – drafted by Lou

Sami Vatanen – traded for after Lou

Pavel Zacha – drafted after Lou

Now, Cory Schneider was a Lou trade…except he’s been terrible for two seasons. Keith Kinkaid was a Lou draftee as well, though. But you can see where Ray Shero has basically spent three seasons trying to clear all the trash Lou left him.

So let’s move over to Toronto, where Lou was the GM or three seasons. He got a crack at two drafts, as he was hired after the ’15 draft and free agency period. And he took…Auston Matthews? I mean, hey, that’s great. But like, it’s not like he unearthed Matthews. This wasn’t a genius display of scouting. He had the top pick, Matthews was clearly the best player in that draft. So there you go. None of the other picks the past two seasons while under Lou’s stewardship have made it to the NHL, though to be fair it’s kind of a short view.

Here are some signings the Leafs made in Lou’s time:

Nikita Zaitsev – ok

Roman Polak, after trading him away once – a circus bear

Matt Martin – can’t count to four

Brian Boyle – fine, maybe? Basically a 4th line center and really a dime a dozen and despite being a good story he’s just kind of there with dumb and bad facial hair

Freddie Andersen – Been good, until you say the words “Game” and “7” and then he does Muppet arms while running away from you

Patrick Marleau – Ok, good, can’t argue with 27 goals. He might be three days older than water, but he provides something.

So what did Lou add to the Leafs’ core? Maybe Andersen? Seems like they’re already thinking about a new goalie when they want to win something serious. Zaitsev? Depth d-man, I’ll give you that one. And Marleau? Pretty much a complimentary scorer at this point.

So what about any of that screams you need him to not only turn around your team but also convince the best player in your organization in at least two decades to stay so you can speed up that turnaround? I mean, maybe name recognition is all that Tavares needs. Maybe he grew up turning off Devils games so he could so something he might actually enjoy, but has memories of them. Still, if Tavares is getting any decent advice, Lou’s hiring won’t mean shit.

There was a time when it would. It’s not now. And yet this kind of silliness keeps happening.

Everything Else

Well Pilgrim, Not Until You Eat The Peanuts Outta My… – FFUD’s ’17-’18 Player Reviews – Victor Ejdsell or I Am Not A Gun

By John Pullega 2011 0

In running himself out of town by means of his performance and (allegedly) his mouth, Ryan Hartman turned into a late first-round pick and the towering Victor Ejdsell. Ejdsell impressed in his NHL debut, lining up between Saad and Kane to the tune of a 51+ CF% and three shots on goal. Then he sort of disappeared in his last five, primarily between DeBrincat and Sikura. Let’s see what we can pick out in a mere six games from our newest Éric Dazé–sized center.

Victor Ejdsell

6 GP, 0 Goals, 1 Assist, 1 Point, -1, 0 PIM

43.3 CF% (Evens), -2.7 CF% Rel (Evens), 37.88 SCF% (5v5), 35.96 xGF% (5v5), -8.66 xGF% Rel (5v5)

 60% oZ Start (Evens)

What We Said: Ejdsell comes with plus-hands . . . The big concern is whether or not he can skate enough to make any of it matter . . . The Hawks were after Ejdsell when he chose the Predators, and generally the European players they’ve been hot on tend to work out at least ok . . .

What We Got: Overall, we got a small feel for what Ejdsell might be able to provide in a sheltered role. His first two games were his best, as he managed four shots and his lone assist. After that, he disappeared completely for his next three, losing 66% of his faceoffs or more, and managing zero shots on goal. He took three shots in the very last game, then got sent down to Rockford for their playoff run.

Perhaps the most encouraging thing about Ejdsell’s cup of coffee was that he didn’t spend too much time playing the role of Annette Frontpresence. He’s got soft hands and good vision according to most scouting reports, and in his debut, he spent much more time in the high slot than in front of the goaltender. That’s a good thing, because by all accounts, Ejdsell’s play style is much smaller and more skilled than his frame suggests. There’s still plenty of time for Quenneville et al. to fuck that up and neuter him by cementing him in the crease because he happens to be large, but in his mini-audition, they seemed willing to let Ejdsell be Ejdsell and not Artem Anisimov.

There isn’t a ton more we can glean from his six games in terms of performance. While all of his advanced stats are downright awful, it’s over six mostly meaningless games, during which he played most of his time with DeBrincat and Sikura. More encouraging is how he’s playing in Rockford. He’s got two goals and two assists in three games, including a triple-overtime, series-sweep-clinching goal against the Wolves. Jon Fromi had some positive things to say about him:

Wasn’t bad in his own end and showed he can finish a scoring play in Game 3 [against the Wolves] . . . I haven’t seen any problems as far as him keeping up with the pace the Hogs like to play. He hasn’t looked out of place at all coming from the larger ice.

Fromi also said that the Ice Hogs are letting him play in transition, as he’s been at the front of some of the rushes. He’s also played a bit on the point during the power play with Dahlstrom, which might be encouraging.

Where We Go From Here: Given the Hawks’s makeup at center—with Toews and Schmaltz in the top two, Tommy Wingels all but guaranteed to come back, Artem Anisimov not yet traded, and our David Kampf in the background—it doesn’t seem like there’s a lot of wiggle room for Ejdsell next year. But with his size and the supposed skill he’s got in his hands, there could be a spot for him somewhere in the bottom six—maybe next to Duclair and Sikura—assuming Saad, Kane, DeBrincat, and Vinnie round out the top six, as they should.

Realistically, he’ll find a home in the bottom six, making us wonder whether he’s actually two smaller hockey players underneath a trench coat sneaking into a movie they shouldn’t be at.

But you didn’t come to the Victor Ejdsell review for rational, stats-based analysis, and neither did I.

What you came for is a complete skullfuck of unbelievable and nearly impossible trades involving Ejdsell, and I’m here to give it to you.

Because the Blackhawks are running out of time with this core’s window, they’re going to make two moves to pry it back open, and they involve a ton of risk. But with the core aging and three consecutive disappointing years behind them, it’s time for Bowman to ride the snake.

The first move can come in one of three flavors, each one requiring more GENIOUS BRAIN neurons than the last to comprehend, to fill the big hole in the blue line. The second, of course, is a no-brainer. Everything that follows assumes the cap goes up to at least $80 million and that the Hawks either trade or LTIR Hossa before the draft.

1a. Package both first-round picks, Ejdsell, and Schmaltz for Calgary’s Dougie Hamilton. Throw in Rutta, and Anisimov and his 11 power play goals if you can get him to waive his NMC. According to Kent Wilson over at The Athletic, “The Flames will be looking to recoup some draft picks and find an impact right winger to solidify the attack up front. The team may be tempted to put Hamilton on the auction block to fill one or both of those needs, but that would likely turn out to be a mistake.”

Schmaltz’s 52 points and 21 goals last year might not be the high-level scoring Calgary would need to justify the trade, especially since Giordano–Hamilton is one of the best pairings in the league. Then again, Wilson pointed out that the Flames seemed to have trust issues with Dougie, using him both less than T.J. Brodie on average and rarely in higher-leverage defensive situations (penalty kill, overtime, as the sole defender on the power play). And this is a team that signed Jaromir Jagr as an offensive solution then acted surprised when he stopped giving a shit, and thought signing Michael Stone was a solution for defensive depth, so Flames GM Brad Treliving might be a moron.

2a. Sign John Tavares at $12 million. Our fearless leader, King of All Media, and overall maven already laid it out for you. If that went through, you’d have

DeBrincat–Tavares–Kane

Saad–Toews–Hinostroza

Duclair–Kampf–Sikura

Highmore/Jurco–Anisimov/Wingels–Hayden

Keith–Hamilton

Gustafsson–Murphy

Seabrook–Jokiharju

1b. Package both first-round picks, Ejdsell, Hinostroza, and Schmaltz for Erik Karlsson, and even that might not be enough for what Ottawa would need for the best D-man in the game (Bobby Ryan would probably be involved, making this impossible for the cap). But let’s assume Pierre Dorion is a special kind of moron, and Ryan isn’t involved.

2b. Sign John Tavares at $12 million. That leaves you

DeBrincat–Tavares–Kane

Saad–Toews–Duclair

Jurco–Kampf–Sikura

Highmore–Anisimov–Hayden

Keith–Karlsson

Gustafsson–Murphy

Seabrook–Jokiharju

1c. Package their #8 pick, Artem Anisimov, Victor Ejdsell, and Vinnie Hinostroza for Justin Faulk. The scuttlebutt is that Carolina is losing patience with with Faulk, and given Canes owner Tom Dundon’s questionable ability to properly value and compensate the people who work for him, he might be griftable. Dundon, a man with next to no professional experience in hockey, wants to play Mark Cuban, so maybe you sell him on Anisimov’s VETERAN PRESENCE and 20-goal season as a center, Vinnie’s offensive potential, and Ejdsell’s size and skillset. The problem here is Anisimov’s no-move clause doesn’t turn into a limited no-trade clause until after the draft. Maybe you get him to waive it by selling him on playing with Andrei Svechnikov, I don’t know.

2c. Sign John Tavares at $12 million. That gives you

DeBrincat–Tavares–Kane

Saad–Toews–Duclair

Jurco–Schmaltz–Sikura

Highmore–Kampf–Hayden

Keith–Faulk

Gustafsson–Murphy

Seabrook–Jokiharju

Ejdsell may not be a gun, but maybe he can be one of the bullets that get the Hawks the top-pairing D-man they need, based on his size alone and the coinflip that is NHL GM dipshittery. Though it’s 99.9% certain none of this will happen, especially since DeBrincat would probably need to go for most of these trades to even be plausible, a boy can dream.

Everything Else

And You May Ask Yourself, Well, How Did I Get Here – Hawks 3, Islanders 1

By Rose Rankin 2052 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Corsica

It’s a pretty sad commentary on the season when holding on to beat a bottom-feeder after being eliminated from playoff contention is the best we can muster, but hey, here we are. To the bullets:

–With Toews out and nothing really of consequence to play for (pride? Does that matter?), the lines were more jumbled than usual. However, the top line of DeBrincat-Kane-Saad was enjoyable to watch, in the same sense that Taco Bell after a night of drinking is enjoyable: in the moment it solves a specific need and makes you feel better, but it doesn’t fix the underlying problem—no matter what you tell yourself about that food “soaking up the alcohol,” that hangover is still coming. And so it is with this scenario. These guys aren’t really a viable line and Kane, notwithstanding his foiling a Tavares shot in the third with arguably his best defensive play of the season, is not a center. But what does that matter? At evens this line ended with a CF% right around 70, and they totaled nine shots between them all.

Plus they scored the goals that mattered (Seabrook had an empty netter, bfd). Kane’s goal was on the power play, so I’m not chalking that up to his fantastic chemistry with these linemates. But Saad overcame his generally terrible luck and banked a shot off Halak’s ass, as he looked around frantically for the puck in all the wrong places. Not only was it enjoyable to see shitty goaltending screw over someone else, it was also nice to see Saad score the goal that would end up being the difference maker.

–And that’s because John Tavares came close to single-handedly getting the Islanders back in the game. He had a pretty wretched 31 CF% and no shots until the 3rd, but he scored the only goal after continual pressure and just plain old creating the chance to go top shelf on Forsberg. He probably would have had two goals if Kane hadn’t lifted his stick just enough on the opportunity he had in the slot, which was shortly before the goal he did score. I know it’s unlikely that the Hawks could pull it off, but I’d be lying if I said I didn’t want them to make an attempt to bring him here after he hits the market this summer.

–Anton Forsberg looked nervous and at times shaky in net, but he played the part of serviceable backup pretty well tonight. He finished with a .969 SV% (NICE), and while it’s rather pathetic that this display of goaltending prowess could only be managed against the lowly Islanders, at this point we should just be happy that the guy who started in goal was able to finish the game. And it’s not like Halak was any better, so there’s that.

–Vinnie Hinostroza was his usual energetic self but he seems a bit snakebitten. After missing the net on a good chance in the second, he was visibly frustrated and took it out on his stick against the post. I can’t fault the guy—he’s consistently one of the fastest if not THE fastest Hawk out there, and he and Schmaltz seem to have good chemistry. Yet he hasn’t scored a goal since March 3rd, and hasn’t had a point all week. I hope he can rack up a couple more points before the season ends, and finish it on a high note. For all his effort, he deserves at least that.

–Jan Rutta did a good thing! He had a nice play in the first to stop Barzal on a breakaway, exactly the sort of thing a defenseman is supposed to do. It should speak volumes about our defense that one good play by this guy would stand out so much, but again, here we are. The defense actually wasn’t awful tonight, but again, it’s the fucking Islanders so I’m not sure how much this really means. But we’ll take our victories where we can get them (literally).

There are so few games left…we can almost count them on one had. It’s sad, it’s a relief, it’s frustrating, it’s a lot of things. At least this one was a win.

Beer de jour: 312 by Goose Island (there’s a bunch of it in my fridge and, well, I was too lazy to bother getting anything else)

Line of the Night: OK, so I don’t have one and that’s because I was listening to music with the game on mute, which apparently my esteemed colleagues just figured out is a thing you can do (sorry guys but I’ve been laughing my ass off about this all week). For those of you who haven’t tried it yet, I highly recommend it and not just for hockey—it works with any sport. But don’t fret—Line of the Night isn’t going anywhere…now you know why I don’t always have one. And what was I listening to? Well, it’s a vinyl evening here at Casa di Rankin, going through my catalog of Bob Marley records, including Live from the Record Plant, Kaya, and Uprising, among others.

Photo credit: Washington Post

Everything Else

Game #76 – Hawks vs. Islanders Spotlight: He’s Got Everyone’s World, In His Hands

By Sam Fels 2432 0

There’s little point in talking about anyone else on the Islanders right now than John Tavares and whether he will stay on Long Island (whenever the Isles actually get there) or flea to much, much greener pastures this summer. In his hands he’ll hold the futures and presents of two franchises, with the power to change the dynamic of a division or conference as well.

Money isn’t going to be an issue. The Islanders certainly have to be prepared to throw $12 million or more a year at Tavares, whatever the limit is when the new cap is set. If the cap does reach $82 million as has been suggested  you could even chuck somewhere around $16 million per year at Tavares if you were so inclined. That might be a bit much, but Connor McDavid’s $12.5 million hit is probably the target, if not starting point. And just about everyone will offer that who’s going to chase Tavares. And it could be a crowded field.

So we’ll start with the case for Tavares to stay. And you can throw that loyalty crap out the window. Players want to cash in and they want to win, and while Tavares may like his teammates and grown attached to whichever community the Isles are playing in this week, it’s just not going to be that big of a factor.

So what is? Well, the Islanders do have a new home locked up, at Belmont Park. This should be better received by their fans on the Island, as it’s still accessible by the same train that goes to Brooklyn but is still on the Island, which appears to be a big deal for them. The problem is it’s three seasons away, and in the meantime the Islanders appear poised to split their home games between Barclays Center and a refurbished, if not tiny, Nassau Coliseum (where they come to see ’em). This not ideal, but it might not be the headache you imagine. The Islanders’ practice facility is still in Nassau Co., and hence the players had to make the same trip in for games that their fans found to be such a headache. Cutting out half of those trips is probably something that the players will like. Still, it’s something of a vagabond team for three seasons, and that might not appeal at all.

As for the team, there’s hope. With a rise in the cap and a clearing out of some deadweight like Nikolai Kulemin, Calvin de Haan and his missing capital letter, Jaro Halak, maybe Thomas Hickey and maybe a trade of a veteran or two like Clusterfuck or Casey Cizikas, the Isles should have the room to sign Tavares and keep their young-ish core of him, Barzal, Bailey, Lee, Nelson, Beauvillier around.

Couple problems there None of them are defensemen and none of them are goalies. With the Islanders having a historically (and hilariously) bad defense this year, that’s an issue. There doesn’t appear to be a ton of help on the way either, as Josh Ho-Sang and Kiefer Bellows are also forwards. The Isles are going to have to solve this from the outside, and as we’ve discussed for the Hawks, the options are not very appetizing in the least.

So who will the Islanders compete against to be the apple of JT’s eyes? About half the league at least, you’d expect. The Canadiens desperately need a #1 center and a turnaround. But they’re getting old in a hurry, and Tavares might not want to put up with all the bullshit of playing in Montreal. Really, who does? While every Leafs fan is under the impression that every Ontario born NHL-er secretly wants to come home and play for the Leafs and have Steve Simmons insult their entire family, the Leafs won’t have the space and have their own players to re-sign. Tampa has been mentioned as Tavares is close with Steven Stamkos, and if they could find a way to make it work next season they have a ton of money coming off the books in the summer of 2019. Which is nice, because they’re going to have to give Kucherov $10 million or more then. They could have even more if they moved Tyler Johnson along, and he would be a touch superfluous with the arrival of Tavares. And clearly, that team would be a favorite for a while. We’ve talked about the Hawks, who should seriously think about it. Another team that should think about it is San Jose, in that they’re going to have to move on from Thornton at some point and Couture and Pavelski are up after next season. Fuck, the Avs need another center and have all the cap space in the world. The Panthers are making noise now and if they could slot Barkov in as a #2? The Hurricanes probably don’t have the budget but are screaming out for this.  The Blues seem to be clearing the decks for something. This list could go on forever.

It’s an awful lot of competition for New York, a team that can’t promise everything. The future is uncertain for them, and they’ll be bouncing between two arenas. Seems less and less likely the more you think about it, doesn’t it? If Tavares were to bolt, they have Barzal ready to step in as a #1 center and those forwards already mentioned. Still no defense or goalie but all the money earmarked for Tavares would be free. They might suck to high heaven next year when there’s no reasonable targets to spend it on, but hey look at the summer of 2019 and you have Erik Karlsson, Drew Doughty, Sergei Bobrovsky all possibly on the market. It rarely works out like that but you never know.

It might not be death for the Isles, but it wouldn’t be a pleasant recovery either.

 

 

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Game #76 – Hawks vs. Islanders Q&A: Dan Saraceni From Lighthouse Hockey

By Sam Fels 2226 0

Dan Saraceni is all things at LighthouseHockey.com. Follow him on Twitter @CultureOfLosing. 

The Isles downfall was a historically bad defense. If you had to portion it out, how much is the personnel on defense, the lack of confidence in either goalie, and Doug Weight’s system?

That’s a good question. I’m not sure if I’ve thought about it in those terms. If you asked 10 different Islanders fans, you’d probably get 10 different answers but for me, I think it’s mostly on the coaching. The personnel isn’t great (playing the husk of Dennis Seidenberg, losing Calvin de Haan for half a season and Johnny Boychuk for a few months doesn’t help) and the goaltending was garbage particularly earlier in the year. So the majority of the blame really could go in any direction. But one of this team’s hallmarks is a steadfast refusal to acknowledge when something isn’t working. When they average 50 shots against for two months and Weight says that nothing’s wrong they just didn’t get a few bounces, you know something is seriously messed up. And when the goalies got better, the shots against remained ridiculous. The bottom two lines have been a clownshow in their own zone all season and no changes seemed to have been made until February, when everything was more or less over already. Weight’s still a rookie, as are Scott Gomez and Fred Brathwaite. But Luke Richardson and Kelly Buchberger have been around the bench for a while. I hoped they’d help Doug out, but it didn’t work that way. Instead, they kept banging their collective heads against a wall all season asking why they had a headache.

For those who might not know, could Brooklyn have worked as a home if the arena wasn’t specifically built for basketball? Or did the fanbase simply not want to commute? What will they do until the new building at Belmont Race Track is ready?

I think yes, had they built it with hockey in mind and had done the proper research into what Islanders fans like and want. The relationship got off on the wrong foot when it first became clear that the Barclays people didn’t give a rat’s ass about Islanders fans or what they want in a game experience. Normally, the rest of the world doesn’t give a rat’s ass, either, but these guys were counting on them for money and good PR. You’d think they’d know that people watch warmups from the glass and don’t want black uniforms. But little to no research seemed to have been done. The commute wouldn’t have been an issue if the arena was a welcoming place. It’s not, so just throw it on the pile. Will fans go to Belmont? If the team is still in the lottery every year, no. Nassau Coliseum is viewed with rose-colored glasses these days, but that place was empty for decades worth of games. So will Belmont unless people have a reason to come out.

One of our favorite sons Nick Leddy has put up 41 points, but is an unsightly -36. Plus-minus is generally a bullshit stat, but what do Isles fans make of it? What should Leddy be going forward, as in top pairing guy or more second-pairing bum-slayer?

I don’t think most Islanders fans even know what his plus/minus is, to be honest. Leddy has all the goods to be a 1D in the NHL except for that killer “fuck you” attitude. He knifes through whole teams, breaks into the zone by himself, catches everyone flatfooted and then… drop passes to no one. He leads the rush on the PP, gets just past the red line and… drop passes to a guy 20 feet behind him. He’s not a big hitter or grinder in his own zone that can wear guys down. Forty one points is great, but I can’t help but feel he should have more. Maybe Ryan Pulock, who’s made great strides this season, can be that guy. Among other things, I’ve given up hope this season of Leddy being the Islanders No. 1, even if I love watching him skate.

While some other kids have gotten more press like Barzal and the ones on defense, Anthony Beauvilier made the team last year at 19. He hasn’t quite stepped forward, but he has pedigree. Is there more to come?

Beauvillier and Barzal were really good together for a while this year, until Beauvillier hit a terrible slump (that got broken with a two-goal game against Tampa on Thursday). He could still 20 goals this year, which would be a cool thing for him. His underlyings haven’t always been great, but for a young guy with a good motor, quick hands, good shot and an ounce of hockey IQ, I feel like he’s on the right track. He’s also a little guy so me might need a little extra time, too. He probably should have spent last year back in junior and he did a few weeks in the AHL this season instead of starting there and moving up, but I’m not too mad about how he’s been so far.

It’s looking like Tavares is going to at least test the market and see what’s out there. With the money, if not years, being equal no matter who is offering it, will the Isles presentation of a future home, enough kids to promise a brighter future be enough? Can the Isles tell him they’ll be ready to win next year?

Oh boy. I have no idea what these guys say to each other behind closed doors, but it’s my only hope for retaining Tavares. To miss the playoffs in the last two seasons of this guy’s contract is absolutely unconscionable. The fact that the guys in charge haven’t already been fired is a testament to how little urgency was given to the situation. Just a lot of lip service and empty promises. If he stays, he’ll be well-paid for life, get to play with Barzal, Bailey and more of his buddies, get to disappear into the suburbs after games, probably get a statue and his number retired and generally be hailed as a price forever. What he won’t do is win jack shit as long as the current management is still in place. He has not once let anyone know what he’s been thinking this whole season because he seriously may not have thought about it yet. The time to start thinking about it begins two weeks from today. So we’ll know very shortly what his feelings are.

 

 

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Let’s Find Some Hope: Let’s Buy John Tavares

By Sam Fels 4874 0

Ride the snake.

Ok, so you’re Stan Bowman. Yes, you’re quite bald. It’s ok. The world doesn’t end if everyone can see the top of your head. Trust me. Anyway, though you may have gone to the higher-ups last summer and told them you have a plan to rebuild the roster on-the-fly, and even if they totally believed you, you’re under serious pressure. No matter what you laid out to Rocky and McDonough, probably using very small hockey words, this is not what you told them would happen. Sure, you can claim Corey Crawford getting hurt is the same as Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady or Drew Brees getting hurt, such was his importance to his team. And that’s not even wrong. And hell, they may even go with you on that. But a year missing the playoffs this badly after two first-round exits still has them more in a “glower” position than “hopeful.” You need results and you need them next year.

And sure, if you do actually get analytical instead of just telling us you do because that’s what you think everyone wants you to say, you could play it safe with a move here or there, knowing that there’s every chance Crow stays healthy next year, Toews’s and Saad’s SH% pop back up simply because HOCKEY!, Top Cat and Schmaltz continue to grow, Sikura is just as good as you think he is, and Vinnie Hinostroza has a breakout year that his metrics suggest he very well could. Hell, maybe even Duncan Keith can play the hits for just one more season. Hell, that’s a playoff team there. You make one move at the deadline, and maybe it’s even more.

Still, the higher-ups want more. If all those things don’t happen, you’re out on your ass. Yes, with your resume and last name and this being HOCKEY! you probably won’t be out of a job long. But is that how you’re goin’ out? Like some punk “with a plan?” Or you firing all the guns at once, knowing if it doesn’t work it’s going to be someone else’s problem anyway? You only have max one or two seasons to do anything with this group anyway. Clock’s ticking. You say, “Fuck it. you only live once and dyin’ would be a stone groove.”

You sign John Tavares. $11 million a year. $12 million a year, who fucking cares? This is your blaze of glory. Win next year and ain’t no one gonna give a shit about a fuck.

“But Sam,” you’re saying out there, “there’s no way the Hawks could do that!” Well, actually there is.

Right now, the Hawks will have about $12 million in cap space if the cap goes up to $80 million as has been rumored. And that’s if they don’t find a way to shuffle off Hossa’s hit to some hinterland hockey landfill. Or they could do what they didn’t do last summer and just use it in the summer and white-knuckle it through the season. Again, if you’re Stan Bowman, you need results next season or you’re toast. It’s time for risk. So either moving Hossa’s contract or just using his LTIR gives the Hawks damn near $18 million to play with. Fuck and yes. It could be more if you can flog Artem Anisimov to some destination without taking too much money back.

You basically have no one to re-sign. You can punt Patrick Sharp to the bunny farm upstate where he’s longed to be for two seasons. Anthony Duclair won’t have warranted more than the 10% raise he’s due as an RFA, which is $1.5 million or so. We love Vinnie Smalls, but he’s not getting any more than $1 or $1.2 million. So you’re still just south of $16 mildo to play with. That’s plenty for the $11-12M you’d have to throw at Tavares.

“But Sam,” you’re saying, “Tavares is a pretty low-key guy. He’s not going to want to come here!” Shut up, moron. Let me disabuse you of that notion.

One, this is not a testing hockey market. You’ve seen that. It’s the NHL’s fourth biggest market, yes. But no one cares when the Hawks are bad. Look at it now. These guys facing really hard questions every practice? There’s like three full-time beat reporters for fuck’s sake. No one’s talking about them on the radio or TV. You don’t have a roundtable of concussed ex players/drunk writers with an hour to tell you why you suck. They’re talking about Kris Bryant here. There’s no Steve Simmons to get up your ass, and I’ll be bored and old next year. I ain’t gonna bother ya. You can fly under the radar here easy.

Second, even if there is “furor,” that’s Toews’s job. Or Kane’s, I suppose. Seabrook’s. You’re not first in the firing line. Tavares could play his hockey and go home. But it’s just big enough to keep him in the endorsements/advertisements world if he so desires.

So that makes it a more desirable destination for him than say, Montreal or Toronto or even Vancouver. We’ll circle back to this.

Your top six, if Stan goes Wild West:

Saad-Tavares-Hinostroza/Duclair

Top Cat-Toews-Kane

Sure, you could arrange this several ways. But Tavares has gotten Anders Lee a 35+ goal season and there’s nothing Anders Lee can do that Brandon Saad can’t. This team scores, especially with Schmaltz as a #3 center simply clocking whatever bums he finds across from him with Sikura and whichever of Hinostroza or Duclair is not on the top six. It scores a lot.

“Sam!” you’ll exclaim, “how are the Hawks going to afford all of Kane, Toews, Tavares, Seabrook, Keith, Saad, and then raises for Schmaltz or DeBrincat or more?” There’s going to be another lockout, you ninny. They can hit the reset button on one or two of these deals under a new system. And you’re probably fucked by that point anyway.

“But Sam,” you’ll interject, “this does nothing to solve an already porous blue line!” Fuck you! I can’t do everything here!

Ok yeah, your blue line would still suck and you can’t get out of the Central or West without one. The free agent class of d-men makes you vomit all the colors of the rainbow. You don’t have the pieces to acquire Erik Karlsson, unless you’re comfortable moving Schmaltz for him. Which you might be after signing Tavares, I don’t know. Maybe you find a way to pry OEL loose at the deadline. Maybe when Vegas reverts back to being an expansion team next year they loose Nate Schmidt before he’s a free agent. There are solutions to every problem.

“But Sam,” you say as I get more annoyed with your pragmatism, “everyone’s going to want Tavares and the Hawks haven’t won a bidding war since Hossa!”

Yeah ok, fine. They haven’t even really tried either. They wanted us to believe they were in on Zach Parise in ’12, though I have my doubts. But the Hawks name and market is still an awfully big draw, especially when you consider Tavares has already been on a Team Canada with Toews and Keith.

He’s not going to Montreal. Who wants to deal with that shit? Toronto doesn’t need nor can afford him. Vancouver is clueless and stupid. Tampa… ok, well that could be a problem if they can lose Callahan’s bloated checks for looking angry. But maybe they want to keep their powder dry for the entire bank chain they’re going to have to hand to Kucherov. Or maybe they’re still after Karlsson. Is Florida going to make a splash? Weather and state income tax aversion are nice, but that team isn’t that much more attractive than the Hawks in the near-term? Detroit might be more clueless and stupid than Vancouver. The Rangers are rebuilding. The Islanders won’t have a home for two or three years. The only language really here is green. Tell me you’re not starting to see it. Tell me a grin isn’t slowly spreading across your face.

C’mon Stan, let’s get nuts. You really don’t have anything to lose.

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Game #46 – Islanders vs. Hawks Preview/Pinball Repair: You’re A Big Man But You’re In Bad Shape

By Sam Fels 2391 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Islanders 23-20-4   Hawks 22-17-6

PUCK DROP: 7:30pm

TV: NBCSN

NO ONE ESCAPES THE ISLAND: Lighthouse Hockey

Not that the Hawks are allowed the luxury of excuses anymore, but another one has fallen out of the way as the bye week is over. The Hawks can’t claim fatigue, they can’t claim they’re already on a break, they can’t claim… well, shit. It’s time to call for battle stations, as the Hawks are simply out of time to reach a level that simply might not be there if they’re going to play beyond the already scheduled slate.

They couldn’t ask for a much better dance partner coming out of the break than the Islanders. While they’re not terrible, the Isles are an open team that gives up a ton of shots and chances and don’t have a goalie that can stop waving at pucks and turning around the wrong way. Then again, the Wings gave up a ton of chances and had a terrible goalie heading in the UC and the Hawks had all their organs fall into their legs.

The Isles also happen to be in a bad way, coming into this one off a 5-2 tonking at the hands of the Bruins on Thursday at home when the Bs were on the second of a back-to-back. That was their fifth loss in the last eight and seventh in the last 10, and they are simply bleeding goals profusely. They’ve given up 30 in their last eight games, and the Rangers are the only ones they’ve held under four in that time.

It’s not just the goalies, of course, and the other thing bending the Hawks way is the Isles are somewhat beat up. On the blue line, both Calvin de Haan and Johnny Boychuk are out, and what remains has basically been Wendell Kim (sky point) at their own line. Nick Leddy put up a -15 in December and a -9 in January and while +/- is basically a bullshit stat, it gives you some idea of how everything has quaked for them recently. Leddy shouldn’t ever be taking on a top pairing assignment, and now he’s doing that while playing babysitter to Scott Mayfield. The Isles have a couple other kids back there in Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock, and the growing pains are there for all to see.

But this is burying the lede somewhat, as the Isles do boast one of the more exciting players to come in the league in Mathew Barzal and his missing “T.” Barzal is the runaway leader in the Calder race and with good cause. He even exhumed Andrew Ladd before Ladd got hurt, and he and Eberle have torn defenses apart all season. There are going to be some shifts tonight where they simply dance around whatever goof the Hawks have out there on defense, and you should prepare so you don’t pass out.

Their threat has loosened up the top line of Anders Lee-John Tavares-Josh Bailey. Bailey missed a couple weeks and returned on Thursday and the other two were something of a mess without him. Both Tavares and Bailey are in a contract drive this year, which doesn’t have Isles fans chewing on towels, drywall, their own skin at all. The top six here is one of the more threatening around, and has kept the Isles in touching distance of the Eastern playoffs. Good thing the Hawks will try and counter that with their best d-men, huh?

Oh right, that. The Hawks return from the break but Joel Quenneville’s brain is still out in Colorado or wherever he spent the bye. The Hawks best d-man this year, Murphy, and the mobile one they need, Kempny, are being scratched. In their place comes in Erik Gustafsson for…oh jesus I don’t fucking know, because he’s there? He’ll play his first game this year with Brent Seabrook who for sure won’t be turned into paste by either of the Isles top lines. Or they could look to shield them and have Rutta and Forsling deal with the Isles top six, which will go… well you know how that will fucking go. This is the good stuff here, people.

As far as the forwards, Anthony Duclair will move up with Toews and Saad, though he’ll be playing the right side where he, y’know, has barely ever played in his career. Vinnie Smalls slots down to the third line with Kampf and Top Cat, which is at least worth a look. The other two lines remain the same. Does anybody remember laughter?

Whatever the lineup, whatever their coach’s delusions, whatever their starting goalie’s condition, this is kind of it now. The Hawks blew the easier portion of this homestand, and now they’ll get the at least explosive Isles, the unholy force of the Lightning, and the malfunctioning Death Star that the Leafs are right now. Whatever the degree of difficulty, if the Hawks are going to be anything it has to start now. Otherwise, there should be some really tough questions asked.

 

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Game #46 – Islanders vs. Hawks Spotlight: Buckaroo Barzal

By Sam Fels 1771 0

While we held out hope that Alex DeBrincat might get into the Calder discussion at the end of the season, there isn’t going to be much of a Calder discussion when this season is over. It’s Mathew Barzal’s unless he completely spills it in the season’s last half. And the future he may portend for the Islanders is probably even more exciting for Isles fans.

Barzal has been a point per game so far this year, and though we’re only barely halfway through the year he’s on pace to have the best rookie season since 2010. Connor McDavid is the only rookie to score at a higher pace, but he only played 45 games thanks to becoming McClavicle. He has a great  chance of topping both Artemi Panarin’s 77 points and Patrick Kane’s 72 points as rookies, which are the best points total as a rookie in the past decade.

But these aren’t empty points either. Barzal is way above the Isles’ rate in both Corsi and Expected Goals, He does get some sheltered zone starts but as he’s piled up the points the competition has gotten tougher and tougher.

Barzal’s actual goal-percentage are a sky-high 15% higher than the Islanders as a team. But this is where stats might not tell you everything. The Islanders shoot 10% with Barzal on the ice and he’s shooting 13% at even-strength himself. But given Barzal’s skills and vision, he might be creating better chances than just about everyone else. Yes, Barzal’s expected goals while on the ice is 2.63 per 60 and the Isles score at 3.65 per 60 which is obviously askew. But Barzal has been playing with Jordan Eberle, and both might just be gifted finishers.

To enjoy Barzal you have to go beyond the numbers. While there’s always a rush to declare someone similar to Patrick Kane (on the ice), Barzal is as close as you’re going to get. And he might do it faster? The game slows down when Barzal has the puck and gives him the time to pick his openings. He extends possessions simply because he can hold onto the puck for so long and wade in and out of traffic. Combined with Eberle and they make some real symphonies out there.

Perhaps the biggest thing that Barzal brings is that he might just be enough to keep John Tavares on the island. Or get him back there when they move to Belmont. Sure, there aren’t a lot of places Tavares can go due to the cap. Maybe Montreal, but he’d never go to Carolina you don’t think, the Flyers are doubtful, the Rangers are a mess, and so on.

But if you’re Tavares, with Barzal in tow and Brock Nelson behind that one could conclude they have center depth for a while. There are three young d-men who look to be mainstays. Yes, the Islanders still have much to figure out and it starts in goal. They’re a good bet to miss the playoffs again. But Barzal’s best years are ahead of him and that has to be awfully alluring.

The landscape may change as well. The Penguins may already be aging, and the Capitals are the Capitals. As said , the Rangers window has shut the big bad wolf is warming up on their straw house. The Devils’ arrow is definitely pointing up, and the Jackets are… well, the Jackets. It feels like the Canes may never get it together. There’s definitely a window here, and Barzal is the biggest reason why.

Still, get him a second “t” in his first name already.

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Game # 46 – Islanders vs. Hawks Q&A: With Dan Saraceni of LightHouseHockey.com

By Sam Fels 1941 0

Dan Saraceni is an editor at LightHouseHockey.com. You can follow him on Twitter @CultureOfLosing. 

We’ll start with something joyous: Mathew Barzal, the best player ever or the bestest player ever?

The best. Maybe bestest ever. Islanders haven’t had a player with this… whatever it is in a long time. Even as great as Tavares is, the speed and elusiveness of Barzal is like X-Men level. Of course, as expected, we’re now into the “stop turning the puck over” part of the program but he’s got the awareness and quickness to clean up his own messes a lot of the time. I’ll be sad if he doesn’t win the Calder but those things happen. I’m more excited about seeing what he can do in years two, three and beyond.

Anders Lee is on pace for 40 goals, after 34 last year. That would make him one of the more dangerous scorers in the league. is that what he is? Or a Tavares product? And was Lee who  Peter Chiarelli thought he was getting for Eberle and got confused?
Lee is Tim Kerr, that immobile net front beast that cleans up a lot of rebounds. He’s a little better than just that, but it’s “where his fish is fried,” as Doug Weight said. I wouldn’t say he’s a product of Tavares because he had 36 goals last year, many coming after Tavares was hurt and missed the end of the season. But what’s weird is that without Josh Bailey, that whole line hadn’t worked that well over the last few games. That might be because they had a rotating cast of nobodies on the other wing, but I think Bailey and Lee work as a tandem because of the set-up/net front dynamic. Tavares will be Tavares no matter who he’s with. I think Chiarelli thought he was getting all three Strome brothers for Eberle in a kinda weird Hockey Voltron deal or something.
The Isles are rocking three young d-men in Pelech, Mayfield, and Pulock. What’s the outlook for this trio?
The outlook is long because they’ve already signed Pelech and Mayfield to cheap, long term deals of four and five years respectively. They’re both similar: more defensive than offensive, not especially quick, prone to games of quiet competence and bouts of overt ineptitude, seem like nice guys. Pulock had high expectations given his AHL scoring numbers and big slap shot. His defense has gotten better this season but he’s been reluctant to let it rip for some reason earlier this season. He’s definitely got talent, it’s just a matter of putting it all together (and letting the coaches keep him in the lineup).
Are the Islanders gonna have to find a goalie before the deadline?
Honestly, at this point, I don’t think it’s as simple as that. This team has a lot of structural and fundamental issues that need to be addressed first. Neither goalie has had a good season. Greiss’s 50-something save performance in Montreal on Monday was his best game since October and he’s been sub-.900 the entire time. Halak was awful in November, but has shown more signs of life throughout the season. I was at the 4-1 loss to the Devils on Tuesday and it’s hard to say he was at fault for all but one goal. No goalie should have to face 40+ shots a night. Halak’s a UFA and they’ll need the savings to sign Tavares and (I hope) Bailey. Greiss will be back next year, and I hope back to the above average goalie he was when they signed him. They have some prospects playing overseas that they’re banking on, too. Typical Islanders: the answer is always tomorrow.
So how does this Tavares thing go? Barzal, new arena plans all show promise for the future. In the other hand, may miss the playoffs again.
I’ve been compiling Tavares free agency stories for almost two years now and I still have no idea. Before Monday, when he told a crowd of Montreal reporters that he wants to stay on Long Island and has never thought about playing anywhere else, he had been consistent in saying, “I like it here, I’m focused on winning and when the time is right, I’ll weigh all the information.” (which reminds me, I need to add that stuff.) Most insiders agree he’ll stay. I think that he thinks they can still be a winner, especially with Barzal now in the picture. Belmont was huge. The new owners have to know that without him, even less people will want to watch them. They have money coming off the books, which was smart. But I’ve seen them screw up so many lay-ups, it’s hard to think they won’t do it again.

 

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