Everything Else

Game #55 – Canucks 3, Hawks 3 (Hawks Win Foursquare) – Powers That Be

By Adam Hess 2131 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Corisca

I don’t even know what’s up with this team right now. They were playing very interesting games while looking very bad earlier this year. Then immediately before and after the All-Star Break/Bye Week they were winning games that were absolutely brutally boring. And then tonight they play like shit in a relatively entertaining game and pull out a tie/OT win. What’s going on? Let’s bullet this to process:

– First and foremost, if there is any one specific thing you can point to in order to say Colliton has had a huge impact this year, it’s the power play, which is near dominant right now. They cashed in on both halves of a 5-on-3 in the first period tonight to get themselves off to a nice start, and while they weren’t playing well at evens in that period (nor did they ever in this none but we’ll get there), we know you can PP your way to a win and even do it several times, and that’s basically what they ended up doing here. With the amount of offensive talent they have had around here for years, it never made sense that the PP stunk so much for so long with Q, and this quantum leap in effectiveness is a major feather in CCYP’s hat.

– So, the Hawks had a 39.8 CF% at 5v5 tonight and lost the goal battle there 2-1, as well. And it really felt like they were being outplayed the whole time, regardless of what noted meatfuck Adam Burish said in the immediate post-game. The actual SOG count wasn’t exactly pretty either, as Vancouver outshot them 43-35. And again, you can PP yourself to a win, but getting straight up shitpumped by the Canucks like that is just downright bad. So please hold off on any “Blackhawks are BACK” posts, because I am not convinced they are.

– That being said, the Hawks are now just two points out of a playoff spot, and their upcoming schedule is full of some shitty teams. Moving forward, they clearly can’t get their face kicked in at evens like they did tonight and expect to win games and make up that playoff ground. But confidence is a dangerous weapon and there is potential they improve as they go and we see a playoff berth. Playing games that matter would certainly be valuable, but I am still not sure if I think it’s more valuable than adding Jack Hughes would be.

– A key part of any potential playoff push (or tank-like collapse) is going to be the play of Collin Delia, and yet again he delivered an inconsistent performance that leaves me wanting an answer regarding what he actually is. The second Canucks goal simply cannot happen, and while it was less egregious neither can the third. Those are two goals where Delia was set up well in front of the shot, and just missed. But then he makes the hard saves and gives you overall solid play. He has to fix the soft shit, cuz then there is really something here. Until then, I will feel like I need to see more.

– The connection between Dylan Strome and Alex DeBrincat is really something, and Strome is absolutely showing himself as a certified 2C with still some upside to maybe be more. He is so smart, his hands are so good, and he’s really using all of that to mitigate the weaknesses with his skating. Meanwhile, DeBrincat remains the third best forward on this team and really elevates Strome, and their past chemistry is definitely playing a role. They’re fun to watch and an excellent second line compliment to Daydream Nation.

– The Jonathan Toews Fuck You Tour continues. Don’t say I didn’t warn you, bitches.

Everything Else

Empty Calorie Fun

By Sam Fels 2766 0

Maybe I’m getting old, but I feel like I have to put a disclaimer at the front of every post that will probably turn out negative. I used to be much more confident in my cynicism. Maybe I’m just trying to be happier as I hurl toward death. Either way.

Let me state that it’s much more fun to watch the Hawks win. Much like any wrestling fan will tell you, things are better when there are stakes and you’re not merely completing the schedule. The fact that the next few Hawks games, and hell, maybe even the rest of them, have something riding on them is enjoyable. I’d really rather this than a full-out tank, simply because the Hawks could never full-out tank and yet they still could finish near bottom of the conference. That might sound hypocritical from someone who was all aboard the Cubs tank and rebuild and also is kind of fascinated to watch the White Sox one. But that’s baseball, where both teams were easily able to flog whatever player they wanted for whatever they could get. Can’t do that in hockey. So whatever. Last night was probably the most fun game of the season, though the Oilers have something to do with that as well.

But what’s most important is that the front office, and maybe the coach, see what exactly is going on here. And though I know better than to think I’ll glean whether or not that’s true from what Stan Bowman says to the press–because he’s highly guarded and not all that eloquent–let’s just say I’m not encouraged.

Take this from Monday’s article at The Athletic from Mark Lazerus (closer than you know, love each other so, Mark Lazerus…) about whether or not the Hawks should have fired Joel Quenneville sooner and what Jeremy Colliton could have done with the extra time. This quote isn’t strictly about that, but when talking about the team now this is what Bowman had to say…

“He said they’re not as bad as their record suggests, that if they had been playing all season the way they’ve been playing the last eight weeks, they’d be ‘right there.'”

In one sense, I guess he’s right. The Hawks in the last seven weeks are 12-6-4. That’s a 104-point pace. Hey, that’s nice! Good even! But as you all know, I’m a process guy. This is hockey. Any team can spasm a run of results anywhere and for just about any reason. I want to know what I’m seeing is sustainable. So…is it? Well, no. Not even close. It’s the same story it’s always been.

Since December 17th, when the Hawks second eight-game losing streak ended and this 12-6-4 one started:

Corsi Percentage: 46.1 (28th)

Scoring-Chance Percentage: 44.3 (29th)

High-Danger Scoring-Chance Percentage: 38.7 (dead-ass last)

That’s not just bad. That’s legitimately terrible. At even-strength, over the past seven weeks, the Hawks have been one of the worst even-strength teams in the league. So how did they get this record? Well that’s easy. Over those seven weeks they’ve got decent goaltending (.926, good for 12th), have shot pretty damn well (9.7%, good for seventh in the league), and of course, the power play.

No, I don’t mean to just dismiss the power play. You can power play your way to a lot of things. The Jackets did it to the playoffs a couple seasons ago. The Sharks used a power play to get to a Final in ’16. The goals still count. But even the power play, process-wise, has only been ok, and nowhere near what its results are. Yes, I get it. It’s a results business, and with Kane, DeBrincat and a suddenly nuclear and Fels-powered Gustafsson, the power play should always out-result its process. But I want to know that these results can last. So over the past seven weeks, the power play…

Shots/60 – 55.9 (7th)

Scoring Chances/60: 50.5 (13th)

High-Danger Chances/60: 17.0 (23rd)

So the power play isn’t creating chances and good ones anymore regularly than middling. What it is doing is burying the chances it gets, at a ridiculous clip of 28%. Over the past seven weeks, the second-best shooting percentage for a team on the PP is Ottawa at 21.6! That’s seven points! That’s the same difference between second and 11th!. To give you some idea of how ludicrous the marksmanship on the power play has been, last year Pittsburgh led the league in PP SH% at 17.0. The year before that it was Montreal at the same 17.0%. Sure, any team can put together a hot couple months. But this 28% just isn’t going to stick around, and there’s nothing to support it when it flattens out, which it simply has to.

Ok, let’s try and find something positive here. It’s stupid to to look at just five games, because any team can do anything over five games. But maybe it’ll be the base for something. Maybe we’ll look back in April with this as a starting point and say that’s when the Hawks started to turn it around structurally. That’s when their even-strength play started to match their play on the man-advantage. So fine, over the past five games:

Corsi Percentage: 48.1 (23rd)

Scoring-Chance Percentage: 46.6 (23rd)

High-Danger Scoring-Chance Percentage: 44.3 (24th)

Nope, still blows! The Hawks, even during this streak, have been a subpar defensive team, and even their goaltending ranks 15th over this limited stretch. What they do lead in is shooting-percentage for these couple of weeks at 13.5. Again, that won’t last.

Look, I want to believe just like you. And teams have stretched out goofy percentages and habits for longer than this. Way longer than this. And maybe Delia gets hot again to even some of this out, or Corey Crawford returns the conquering hero on March 1st and does even better. Stranger things have happened.

And that’s being a bit cold. There are some things in this streak that do portend to a brighter future. Like Dylan Strome, or Top Cat proving not just he’s a top-six scorer but a genuine top-line scorer. Saad and Kampf (before he got hurt). Connor Murphy has been able to take top pairing/dungeon assignments. It’s not a barren wasteland.

But overall, this is pixie dust. And while you would never, ever hear Bowman or Colliton say this (great seats still available!), my fear and expectation is that they genuinely believe something ingrained has changed here. And it hasn’t.

Everything Else

F*ck You, Chicago. You Took My Only Friend

By John Pullega 3223 0

It’s been a banner morning for Hawks and hockey fans, which is ironic because the next time this team raises a banner, we will all be dead from exploding heart syndrome. Before we jump into the meat that is Jokiharju’s demotion, I’d like to give a gigantic FUCK YOU to Pierre McGuire for proving yet again that no matter how terrible you are at everything you’ve ever done professionally, if you’re old, white, and know a few people, you too can be an enormous, bloviating, pontificating asshole on national television and get paid millions to do it. The horseshit he pulled on Coyne Schofield last night is a microcosm of why the NHL continues to be a toilet-tier league. The NHL is for everyone, unless you’re a woman, gay, of color, or end up with a head injury.

Now, let’s talk about the move our resident Brain Geniouses made this morning. Henri Jokiharju was sent down to the AHL on the eve of the end of break. As if the terror of this sideways turd of a hockey team having to play games again wasn’t enough to drive us all insane, we now get to watch as supreme talents like Slater Koekkoek, Carl Dahlstrom, Gustav Forsling, Dun-I-Can’t-Find-A-Fuck-To-Give Keith, and Bottomless Pete, nature’s cruelest mistake, continue to push Collin Delia farther into leather-working as a full-time career.

There’s an argument to be made that moving Jokiharju down is a chance to showcase other players as the trade deadline approaches. I am not going to make that argument, because it’s bonafide, Grade-A horseshit. Here’s the list of players that will now have a chance to play over Jokiharju:

Duncan Keith (Full NMC)

Brent Seabrook (Full NMC)

Connor Murphy (One of the Hawks’s two best D-men this year)

Erik Gustafsson (A forward playing defense)

Slater Koekkoek (Sucks deep pond scum)

Carl Dahlstrom (Played OK for 10 games once)

Gustav Forsling (Sucks)

Jokiharju has been playing alongside those top four guys since the beginning, so there’s no reason to send him down to showcase those four. Keith and Seabrook aren’t going anywhere, as Self-Proclaimed Marketing Genius John McDonough continues to insult the intelligence of Hawks fans by implying that they want to pay money to watch legends make them forget how good they once were. Trading Connor Murphy should be considered malfeasance, as he’s been one of the Hawks’s two passable D-men, is still young, and isn’t an anchor on the salary cap. If the Kings can get a first for Muzzin, the Hawks should expect to get at least a second for Gustafsson, but even if you could, can you really see this fucking team pulling the trigger on that with the power play being as effective as it is with him on it?

So that leaves you with a showcase of Koekkoek, who just got traded for Jan Rutta; Carl Dahlstrom, who is about as much of “a guy” as you can be; and Gustav Forsling, who’s basically Erik Gustafsson without any of the offensive output. At best, you’ll get a low pick (think 6th or 7th round) for any of these guys. Stunting Jokiharju’s development by putting him in a league he’s outgrown (yet again) is worth a low draft pick. Fucking wonderful.

It would be one thing if Jokiharju were actually struggling in the NHL, like these water carriers want you to believe. But he really hasn’t. He leads the Hawks with a CF% Rel of 5.5. He leads the Hawks with a 54.1 CF%. Despite the constant jerking around, he’s posted 12 points in 37 games, which ranks him sixth among all NHL rookie D-men for points and fifth among rookie D-men in points per game (minimum 20 games).

When playing on his correct side, his possession numbers are strong: 53+ with Keith, 54+ with Gus, 72 with Murphy (small sample size with Murphy). It wasn’t until the Born on Third Bunch decided to put him on his off side with the worst defenseman the Hawks have—after sending him back to Finland against his will to beat up on a bunch of children he’s already beaten up on before—that his numbers came crashing down. In the limited time he played with Sbarro, Harju had a 36 CF% with Seabrook and a 54+ away from him. This isn’t news: Of all active Hawks defensemen, everyone except Dahlstrom has had better possession numbers away from Seabrook. Just look!

This is the most frustrating part about the demotion. You can showcase the water balloons filled with diarrhea that are Koekkoek, Forsling, and Dahlstrom without demoting Harju BY SCRATCHING THE WORST DEFENSEMAN YOU HAVE. For all those high-falutin degrees Bowman and McDonough are always latently reminding you about (fuck Notre Dame at all levels for all time), that they don’t understand how a fucking sunk cost works is absolutely mind boggling. And as always, kiss my ass with any appeals to “asses in seats.”

Who could have ever imagined that Joel Quenneville—a man whom we’ve all dumped on for not giving young guys a fair shake—would be the one who handled Harju the best? Sending him to Finland was bone-headed, but this is the kind of galaxy brain shit that, had any other team done it, we would giggle at and ask, “Maybe those idiots will take [insert garbage player here] off our hands next.”

The Hawks have nothing to showcase that requires Harju’s demotion. Nothing. Anyone whom they can realistically showcase has already been playing concurrently with Harju. This demotion is simple cowardice. Colliton, Bowman, McDonough: Whoever is making the lineup decisions is too cowardly to tell Brent Seabrook, “We are scratching you because you do not give us the best chance to win.” Because after all, that’s all they’ve been talking about since the beginning of the season: They expect to win, they expect to be a playoff team, they expect to pull within .500, they expect to scratch for every single point.

Demoting one of your top two defensemen is not how you do any of that. All it does is fuck up the development of a 19-year-old part of the future who had the audacity to play fairly well when given the chance. He’s no Rasmus Dahlin, but no one asked him to be that. All we ask is that you give him 20 minutes a night (he’s averaged about 17 since Colliton took over and about 14 since coming back from Finland) and play him with someone, anyone, who complements his puck-moving, strong-vision style.

Instead, they’re sending him down to a league where the only thing he’ll learn is that the AHL is rife with guys who, five years from now, will specialize in getting kicked out of bars for poking strangers and screaming “I PLAYED PROFESSIONAL HOCKEY” before headbutting them when they say, “Sir, I don’t know who you are please stop harassing me.”

My, my what a mess we’ve made.

Everything Else

Now Calm Down, Jeremy-Diddily-Diddily-Diddily-Diddily – Colliton’s Future and Weathering the Storm

By John Pullega 2569 0

Stats gathered from NaturalStatTrick.com, NHL.com, hockey-reference.com, unless otherwise linked.

Imagine you’re Jeremy Colliton. You’re young, allegedly great at communicating, and coming off a deep Calder Cup run. You’re the lad in waiting behind a legendary coach who looks to have lost the room, and who’s certainly and ironically fallen out of the Brain Trust’s circle of trust. When the front office drops the hammer on the Joel Quenneville Era—and along with it the groin-grabbing ecstasy of a dynasty bygone—they turn to you, the 33-year-old, out-of-the-box hire who’s had success everywhere he’s gone.

Then you go 12–18–6. And now, the question is, “Who’s to blame,” or, more specifically, “Is Colliton a long-term answer?”

Before we dive asslong into the why and why not regarding whether Colliton’s the answer, let’s get a few things out of the way. First, 36 games do not a coach make, but it does give us an idea for what a coach can be, so consider this a halfway review of sorts. Second, despite what Bowman and McDonough wanted you to believe, this team was a fringe wild card team if everything went perfectly, a 70-point team max if not. Third, Colliton has a contract that runs through the 2020–21 season. With these givens in mind, let’s putz around for a proof for both scenarios.

The Case for Colliton as the Answer

1. Time: In a November 25, 2018, interview with Scott Powers, Stan Bowman had this to say about Colliton’s slow start (emphasis added):

Coming in, we didn’t want to change a lot of things off the bat, but we want to try and change some of the tendencies. The hardest part is guys have played one way for a while. You get habits engrained with you. It’s hard to change them without a lot of practice time, without also thinking on the ice, and I think we’re seeing some of that.

While there’s a ton to unpack in this quote alone, the part I’m focused on is the time factor. Colliton has had very little time to implement the systems he wants to implement. The wholesale changes he has tried to make—man-to-man instead of zone defense, primarily—have been done on the fly. Only one systemic change, the power play, has worked so far (and given the depth of scoring talent the Hawks have always had, that shouldn’t be so surprising). As The Maven so eloquently pointed out a few weeks ago, if Bowman had any courage whatsoever, he would have fired Quenneville before the season began and given Colliton more time to try to implement his systems in a more controlled setting, rather than making him shit his pants, dive in, and swim.

Whether those systems work or not is a question more adequately answered with more preparation. With this season swirling down the drain like piss in the Wrigley troughs, one of the things to look forward to is what Colliton can push out after a full offseason of tinkering. Right now, it’s obvious that the man-to-man system is a diaper fire. It’s possible that that’s just what it is, but it’s also possible that the guys he has just haven’t been comfortable making such a marked change in in-game situations (on top of the sucking, instincts tend to take over).

If Colliton is given at least one offseason to prepare—rather than hoping that guys older than him will change the way they’ve played for a decade on a dime—it’s plausible that the system is only as bad as players within it, which is a bit easier to solve than a broken system.

2. Talent: You and I both knew that unless everything went perfectly, this Hawks team wouldn’t be a playoff team. You can’t really blame Colliton for having a roster whose blue line is the personification of a middle finger in Quenneville’s face foisted upon him. (You can blame him for how he uses it, which we’ll do shortly.) But there might be hope.

At the rate the team is going, they’re likely to be in the running for a top-2 pick in the draft, which could inject young, NHL-ready forward talent into the mix immediately. By most accounts, Boqvist could be ready next year, as might Beaudin. The Hawks have cap space to use for a genuine top-4 defenseman in the offseason, which needs to be the foremost priority for Bowman, lest he’s trying to get fired.

If Colliton’s system requires speed, the Hawks have some waiting in the wings, and they have the salary cap means to go get some.

3. The Power Play: Of all the things Colliton has done right, this is it. Since December 18—which is when the current iteration of the PP1 took over—the Hawks are the absolute best power play team in the league with a 39.6% conversion rate (19 goals/48 opps.). They’re on a nine-game PP goal streak. They’ve climbed from deadass last to 16th in the league in that span. The next closest team to them in that time frame, the Penguins, are nearly 8% behind them at 31.8% (14 goals/44 opps.).

This is what gives me the most hope that Colliton is the answer. For nearly 11 years, the Hawks have had some of the best scoring talent on the planet yet only finished in the top 10 for PP% three times. Their woes on the PP were without a doubt systemic. It took Colliton about a month to fix that. When given the talent, Colliton tapped into it quickly. The power play is just a part of the whole, but if given enough time, you can’t help but wonder if he can fix other systemic problems the team has. So, I’ll argue that that power play is a case study in what Colliton can do given the appropriate talent and time.

The Case Against Colliton as the Answer

1. Firing Bowman: Bylsma–Murray in Buffalo. Hakstol–Hextall in Philly. Peters–Francis (Geraci) in Carolina. While it isn’t a hard-and-fast rule that a new GM will bring in a new coach, there is a history of it. And the drum that beats louder and louder every day is FIRE STAN BOWMAN. There’s certainly a case for it: From trading Teuvo, to signing Manning and extending Rutta as a “fuck you” to Quenneville, to claiming that he saw this team as a playoff contender, Bowman’s recent decision making has been, to put it politely, pigshit.

If Bowman is fired after this season, it’s possible that whoever replaces him will want to go Bret “Hitman” Hart and wash out the old-man smell Bowman left behind. That could include tossing Colliton. This is the most likely scenario in which Colliton doesn’t stick: a new GM throwing out the baby with the bathwater because the baby was born in the bathwater.

2. Lineup Management: Sometimes, the new boss looks awfully similar to the old boss. We’ve recently watched Henri Jokiharju take a healthy scratch in favor of Slater Koekkoek and Carl Dahlstrom of the “not part of this team’s future” collective. When asked why he did that, this supposed Great Communicator babbled about “fast forwarding his development” by benching him, claiming “you can’t play everyone” (skip to 5:43 in this audio clip). What started off as a somewhat believable answer about Harju’s scratch (82-game season, takes time to adapt, don’t want to burn him out [though sending him to the WJC kind of fucks that narrative, doesn’t it?]) devolved into the question we can’t stop asking: “When is it Seabrook’s turn,” or, more accurately, “Why isn’t it Seabrook’s turn?”

And it’s not just that. It’s making DeBrincat play not-top-6 minutes with guys who are only skating because they won a fucking drawing (which is something Colliton has changed recently, which is good). It’s starting Cam Ward in situations that aren’t back-to-backs. It’s slotting Anisimov over DeBrincat and Saad (which is finally changing, too). The talent is what it is, but it’s the management of that talent that’s questionable. In a perfect world with this lineup, you’re looking at something like:

DeBrincat–Toews–Kane

Saad–Strome–Kahun

Caggiula–Kampf–Kruger

Perlini–Anisimov–Hayden

Murphy–Jokiharju

Keith–Gustafsson

Dahlstrom–Seabrook, Koekkoek (rotating)

Delia

Although time is a factor in figuring out what you’ve got, it’s not really a mystery anymore. Load up the top 6, let Jokiharju create, and if you want to rotate your D-men, rotate the ones who either suck or aren’t a part of the future (this possibly includes Gustafsson). Until Colliton shows us that he can scratch Seabrook or Keith after a bad game, his “we might rotate guys” schtick will be hard to take seriously. He’s been put in an impossible situation with the defense, but if they’re really trying to win, when Seabrook and even Keith’s play warrant it, scratch them. (And kiss my ass with any cynical “asses in seats” arguments you want to make. If McDonough is as good a marketer as he says he is, he’ll find a way to market the team as it transitions away from the Old Guard. Even name recognition stops drawing after too much losing, so position the team to win more now.)

3. The Stats: Let’s look at this in two ways: Colliton vs. Quenneville this year; Colliton vs. Quenneville last year after Crawford’s injury. We can control for Crawford’s appearance this year because he wasn’t very good in the time he was here.

Team Stats CF% SCF% HDCF% PDO Points%

Colliton

2018–19

(36 games)

 47.85 (26th) 45.73 (29th) 41.76 (31st) .994 (T-21st) .417 (30th)

Quenneville

2018

(15 games)

 51.5 (10th) 49.17 (20th) 43.64 (27th) .989 (22nd) .500 (22nd)

Quenneville

2017–18

(47 games*)

 51.96 (8th) 51.99 (6th) 46.88 (25th) .979 (29th) .394 (28th)

* = After Crawford Injury

CF% = Corsi; SCF% = Scoring Chances For Percentage; HDCF% = High-Danger Chances For Percentage; PDO = Shooting Percentage + Save Percentage

No matter how you slice it, the Hawks are statistically worse across the board than they ever were with Quenneville, and that’s with marginally better luck (i.e., higher PDO) than Quenneville ever had (and Colliton’s PDO would likely be higher if he weren’t throwing Cam Ward and his .888 SV% out there with aplomb). They possess the puck less, have fewer scoring chances, and give up more high-danger chances. It’s no coincidence that they’re the worst in the league in HDCF% and second-worst in points percentage, in front of only Ottawa, a team that should be relegated to the AHL.

What’s even more worrying is that the team is getting statistically worse under Colliton despite marginally better talent. This year, Quenneville didn’t have Murphy or Strome (whether he’d use them properly is another story). He had Manning and Rutta, and we don’t need to sing that song again. He didn’t have Collin Delia to throw a .923 despite facing 35+ shots per game. While neither Murphy, Strome, nor Delia are saviors, they are better than what Quenneville had to work with.

So, What Are We Doing Here?

In the end, despite the record and the stats, you let Colliton ride out his contract at the very least. Watching what he did with the power play is enough to wonder what more he can fix, given time and talent. Whether it’s Bowman or someone else (other than Chiarelli), the key to Colliton’s success will be getting something resembling defensive talent on the roster. Connor Murphy can’t do everyone’s job.

Boqvist, Beaudin, and Mitchell (once he finishes college) are supposed to be those guys soon, but you still need to bring someone in via trade or free agency. Karlsson is probably a pipe dream. We know that Carolina wanted Saad for Faulk. Would they take Saad, Gustafsson, and a prospect like Beaudin for Hamilton? If they would, would you do it? All of these guys could fit the system Colliton wants to implement. The question is, “Will he have enough time with them?”

We always knew this team would be bad, but Colliton was supposed to at least stabilize that. He hasn’t really done that yet. With more time and a full offseason, we’ll have a better idea for what Colliton can do. I want to see.

Everything Else

My Piss And Moans Are The Fuel That Set My Head On Fire

By Sam Fels 1977 0

The past season and a half for Hawks fans have been, if not a nightmare, then certainly close enough to study a nightmare’s habits and form. I’m sure every one has their own moment where things have felt like bottom. For me it was last night, because the Hawks actually hit bottom. They are 31st in the league. They just got pumped by one team that’s rebuilding in Newark, and then pretty easily held at arm’s length by another on Broadway. They have the worst goal-difference in the league. It certainly has been a long time since the Hawks were propping up the entire league and deservedly so. And yes, those of you thinking that in the long run this may be a good thing, you may be right. If they could carry this out, land in the top two in the draft, and pry Jack Hughes or Kaapo Kakko that would be a step forward. If you find relief or salvation in that, I won’t stop you.

You wouldn’t think I could still find any anger after all this, but I can find it anytime, anywhere. So here’s what’s floating around my head.

-Again, to end up bottom, is most every sport these days, you’re supposed to actually plan for that. And if you haven’t planned for that, everyone is fired. The Flyers are down here, and they’ve shitcanned everyone. The Senators are stupid and should fire everyone. The Kings have fired everyone. The Panthers are probably going to fire everyone. The Wings are going to fire everyone to get Steve Yzerman in.

The Hawks did fire a coach, but if I’m taking the Hawks at their word, then how can anyone above Coach Cool Youth Pastor keep their job? They told you this team was supposed to be competitive, and they’re last in the league. There’s no way that any front office that thought this roster could make a run at a playoff spot can be deemed to be competent enough to have any influence on a future NHL team. I kind of have to believe they said different things behind closed doors than they did in front of the press, because it’s the only way to sleep through the night. If this was the belief both privately and publicly, then everyone goes.

I know what they’ll do. You know what they’ll do. They’ll hide behind the fig leaf of Corey Crawford being hurt again, and wonky when he was healthy. But don’t buy it. Let’s play it out. Let’s say that Crawford was going .925 (which would be Vezina-worthy in this year’s environment) in his starts and the starts that had to go to Delia (because Delia wouldn’t be here if Crow were healthy). That would be 15 less goals the Hawks gave up. It’s elementary and coarse, but with no other goals scored that’s still a -23 GD. Sure, score effects probably change things but how much better would that GD really be? How much higher in the standings would they be? Five points? I guess that’s touching distance to a playoff spot. Would that be just because the sludge that the Central turned into behind Nashville and Winnipeg? And five points is an awfully ambitious estimate. It’s probably closer to three and you’re still nowhere.

-We’ve been over this and over this, but this was a GM who basically has said and wants you to think he sabotaged the blue line simply to stick it to a coach he wanted to fire over the summer anyway. He put Brandon Manning and Jan Rutta on this team because “they were Q-type players”, or so he thought, and the fact that they sucked was Q’s fault, according to Stan. This team probably isn’t much better if Dahlstrom starts the year here, though maybe a little if Murphy was healthy all season. Where else would anyone get away with this? In a league getting faster and faster all the time, Stan Bowman inserted two road cones on defense simply to put a middle finger up to his coach. That’s not just fireable, that’s catapult-able. That’s a broken organization that’s too arrogant to realize it. And that arrogance is built off success they were almost entirely, indirectly involved in. Again, they draw their esteem from being born on third.

-I want to believe in Jeremy Colliton, and I do honestly think he should be given a run with a real roster next season. I would like the Hawks, or any team really, getting rewarded for going outside the box. That’s assuming the veterans haven’t already given up on him, because they’re all going to be here next year and you’d need a buy-in from them otherwise the young players aren’t going to either. But there’s no evidence that anything has improved. The only thing different is that he’s not lashing Connor Murphy with birchwood between periods for who he isn’t like Q was last year.

Yes, this team isn’t built to play the system he apparently wants. To pull off this man-system in the defensive zone, you have to be oozing speed to pressure any puck carrier all the time. There can’t be any time to breathe. The Hawks aren’t that, and are far from that. So…why wouldn’t you tailor a system to the team you have, not the one you wish to have?

Every metric has gotten worse under Colliton. Their only salvation has been a power play that has clicked (which he does credit for) and Collin Delia (which he doesn’t). The penalty kill still sucks out loud. They still take three or four passes to get out of the zone when it should be one or two or even none. Duncan Keith rarely cares. He can yell at Erik Gustafsson all he wants but that’s not getting any better defensively. Henri Jokiharju has yet to flash. Do we want this guy at the controls when Adam Boqvist is here?

-Speaking of Jokiharju, let me be clear: I don’t think he’s a bust or anything close. But the more I watch him, the more he seems a high floor guy than a high ceiling one. He’s not that fast. He’s been buried with partners and assignments that don’t let him show off what he can do on the offensive side of the ice, but we haven’t seen any of it anywhere. And he can’t be what the Hawks need him to be if he’s not that quick. He’s smooth, but that’s not the same thing. Boqvist and Mitchell are both right-handed as well, so how’s that going to shake out?

If Colliton is taking orders from above, then “above” has to find a way to give Jokiharju a steady partner so we can see what we have here. There’s only one, and that’s Murphy. Flip him to the left side, which he did plenty last year, and let’s see what HarJu can do with some shackles off. Otherwise, what are we doing?

Ok, I got it all out. We’ll come back to this next week.

Everything Else

Is This Anything?

By Sam Fels 1917 0

Despite last night’s loss, or tie but goes down as a loss in a gimmick, the Hawks over the last 11 games have gone 6-3-2. That’s a pretty decent record, there are some decent teams in that stretch they’ve played, and had they been at that pace all season would work out to a 104-point pace. Were they to maintain it the rest of the year they’d end up with 87 points. Not nearly enough for the playoffs, not anywhere near the top of the lottery, but probably allows them just enough wiggle room to turn their palms up at the season-closing presser to say if just a couple things more had gone right or Crawford not gotten hurt or something to say they’re on the right path. And hell, maybe in some way if you squint real hard that wouldn’t be entirely wrong, depending on how players like Collin Delia, Henri Jokiharju, Connor Murphy, Carl Dahlstrom, Dylan Sikura, Dylan Strome, and one or two others close out the season and portend to the future.

But because results can get so weird in hockey and not really be connected to anything, we’re more interested in process around here. So in the last 11 games, is the Hawks process any better?

Starting on the day the Hawks beat the Penguins at home, they are 15th in points percentage. But they’re 27th in Corsi-percentage, at an unsightly 45.1% They’re 28th in scoring-chance percentage at an even more homely 44.3%. Salvation in high-danger chances? You best believe that’s a nope: 29th at 39.9%.

Worrying more is that all of these numbers are significantly worse than the Hawks’ season-long marks, which means whatever changes Coach Cool Youth Pastor is trying to make haven’t had an effect, or they have and made things worse than they were. That’s not where the Hawks are supposed to be, especially because he’s actually gotten a small, minuscule even, infusion of talent that Quenneville didn’t get in the form of Murphy, Dahlstrom, and Sikura (who’s been pretty good but keeps getting benched).

What the Hawks are getting over the last three weeks is luck and goaltending. Their PDO has risen over 1.000, to 1.021, and that’s mostly due to an even-strength save-percentage of .935 the last 11, which is ninth in the league, as opposed to their season-long .917. That’s a difference of six goals at just even-strength in 11 games, and you can imagine what kind of effect on results and points those six goals would have had, depending on where they were placed.

Has anything gotten better? Well, yes, a very little. A crimp you can barely hang onto. They’re giving up a touch less attempts and shots per 60, so that’s nice. But they’re taking less as well. They’re also giving up about the same amount of scoring chances per hour but are creating less. So that’s not optimal either.

What the Hawks have done is massively improve the power play, and that can be at partially credited to our very fashionable and hip coach. They’ve piled in nine PP goals in the last 11, where they’d only managed 11 in the 32 games before that. So that helps, and power play goals do count, despite what some would tell you. Somehow though, the penalty kill has gotten worse, giving up a goal per game in this streak while “only” giving up 23 in 32 games before that.

So while it’s been more enjoyable, in some ways, to watch the Hawks win a few games for a change, there’s nothing about it that suggests it’s sustainable or indicative of a brighter future. In the words of Homer Simpson, “It’s just a bunch of stuff that happened.” Or more to the point, Collin Delia made a bunch of damn saves and Cam Ward didn’t puke on himself the whole time.

That could be better.

Everything Else

At Some Point You’ve Got To Be The Boss

By Sam Fels 2078 0

It seems a touch pointless to write this now, as Cam Ward was fine in the Winter Classic. He wasn’t great, and perhaps a more athletic goalie would have gotten to Bergeron’s equalizer in the second. But it came on a bad bounce, which is more poor luck than poor play. But it’s the fact that Ward started at all that’s worrying, if only slightly.

This of course could be a case of the Hawks trying to “showcase” Ward in case he can be flogged for a mid-round pick at the deadline. Except teams have 11 years of data on Ward at this point. And if the Hawks had figured anything out with him this season that would lead anyone to believe he’s changed from his Carolina days, then “.888” would be in big, flashing, neon lights to dissuade from that notion. Cam Ward isn’t going anywhere, and if he does it’s because some GM started to drip brain fluid out of their ear and didn’t think much of tossing a 7th-round pick aside. Let’s just say I’m skeptical that was or is the case going forward.

What bothers me, as we’ve repeatedly stated, is that there was no case to start Ward yesterday. Whether the Hawks genuinely believe they can still salvage this season or they’re already turning their eyes to tomorrow, Collin Delia is the choice in either case. And if you think you have to have this game, because it’s your showcase game on national TV and all that, Delia is again the better choice. He’s playing better, he might be the goalie of the future, and on it goes. There’s no equation you can go through that doesn’t have “x = Delia.”

Jeremy Colliton‘s quotes of “guys respecting Ward in the room” and “veteran status” don’t really help much, either. And it’s not only because it’s giving me Dusty Baker “gotta be fair to Holly, dude” flashbacks. Because in his short stint, Colliton has yet to prove he can play hardball with any veteran player aside from Chris Kunitz or Brandon Manning, and that’s batting practice. Cam Ward shouldn’t draw any more water than those two do or did, and yet here we are.

During their streak of incompetence (the second one, in case you were wondering), Colliton never pulled either Crawford or Ward even when they were giving up multiple goals early, and bad ones at times. A goalie-pull isn’t always on the goalie either, and is sometimes used as commentary on how horseshit the skaters have been. That switch was never flipped, though even we said it might look a little awkward for a coach barely in the job to hang Crawford out to dry with all he’s been through. But it certainly was an option to be used, and Colliton never did. And things just got worse. Even Crow’s confidence can be broken. It felt at the time that Colliton didn’t have any answers, or was afraid, or was simply frozen.

So what does that mean for the harder calls that are coming if Colliton can’t even bring himself to sit Ward for yesterday? Gustav Forsling‘s constant nosebleeds will give Coach Cool Youth Pastor some cover when Henri Jokiharju returns from the WJC, but the Brent Seabrook reckoning is coming at some point soon. Does Colliton have the tires to tell that accomplished of a player he’s in a suit for the night? For repeated nights? And that said, what would be the pairings if you sit Forsling? Are you flipping Jokiharju to his off-side to keep the other pairs that are working in tact? Seems a bit much on the kid.

Duncan Keith is still getting the most ice-time, and he was awful yesterday. Connor Murphy and Carl Dahlstrom have taken the hard shifts off of him at least, but they should be creeping up on him in time on ice and they’re not yet. Is it Colliton who will tell Keith he’s a second-pairing player? Do you believe that?

At some point, you have to the coach, no matter your age and experience. The Hawks put Colliton in a near-impossible situation, but that doesn’t mean he can ignore it. Telling Ward to do one would be a nice start, because whatever the players say they know that Delia right now is the better option, and the players want to win every game despite what the team’s aims might be. It would be a good first step to the harder talks and decisions that are coming. But you have to start making these choices first.

 

Everything Else

Game #42 – Bruins vs. Hawks Preview/Rudy Cosplay: It Doesn’t Get Worse Than This

By John Pullega 1800 0

vs.

RECORDS: Bruins 21-14-4   Hawks 15-20-6

PUCK DROP: Noon Central

TV: NBC

Beantown, Because Boston Is a Concrete Fart: Stanley Cup of Chowder

What better way to nurse a hangover than to watch this Blackhawks team play this Boston team at the unnecessarily hallowed and despicably overrated grounds of Notre Dame? In a successful attempt to prove that hell exists and that it’s taken residence wherever hockey goes, we’ll get to experience arguably the worst fanbase in America cheer on arguably the biggest douchebag in hockey at arguably the biggest sham of a university against inarguably one of the worst teams in hockey. Happy fucking New Year.

Starting with the Bruins, it seems like Tuukka Rask has finally put whatever family demons he was dealing with behind him. Since his leave of absence that spanned a few days in November, Rask has been riding the waves between middling and good. His even-strength save percentage on the year is .925, and his shorthanded percentage is a strong .896. Hilariously, it’s been his performance on the power play that’s done the most harm, as he’s somehow managed to post a .759 on the man advantage, which is really something. He’s coming off a strong performance at Buffalo, pitching a .929 in an overtime win on the 29th.

Per usual, the Bruins rely heavily on Patrice Bergeron (12 G, 19 A), David Pastrnak (23 G, 25 A), and perpetual passenger Brad Marchand (12 G, 29 A) for just about everything. This line has accounted for nearly 41% of all of Boston’s offense this year, and that’s with Bergeron missing a month between November and December with an upper body injury. This line will score, dominate possession (57+ CF%), and then rub your face in it if you let them on the advantage. Of Pastrnak’s 23 goals, 10 have come on the PP, which is second behind Patrik Laine.

Then of course there’s Brad Marchand, who will likely get an honorary degree from Notre Dame for being the most insufferable asshole to visit the stadium since the Class of 2018 graduated. He’s doing his usual routine of scoring just over a point per game while racking up penalty minutes being the most annoying nuisance this side of a dog with the squirts on a white carpet. There is a small chance that he won’t play due to an upper body injury, but given what a horse’s ass he is, bank on him being out there and causing some kind of injury, whether physical or mental, to all involved.

DeBrusk and Krejci anchor the second line, and it looks like Ryan Donato will ride next to them today. DeBrusk is on a 30-goal pace, and when Krejci has scorers on his wing he’s dangerous, so if the Hawks go hot and heavy against the first line (as they should), you can expect some damage from here.

After that, it’s retreads and generated names. Noted Dog Murderer David Backes won’t suit up because he’s a crooked penis in the midst of a three-game suspension for, what else, an illegal hit to the head. Former Blackhawk Joakim Nordstrom plays in the bottom six here, which is probably summation enough. There’s some excitement about former second rounder Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson, but it’s not clear why. Colby Cave or Chris Wagner doing anything for you? No?

The big news on the blue line for the Bruins is the loss of moon-faced Ice Time spokesman Charlie McAvoy. McAvoy has missed extended time once already this year for a concussion and was placed on IR last week with a lower body injury. When McAvoy’s been healthy, he’s been effective offensively, scoring 11 points in 17 games.

Elsewhere, Zdeno Chara continues to do a terrible job of convincing anyone that he isn’t actually Rasputin. At 41, he’s still taking more than 21 minutes a night. He’s also recently returned from an MCL injury, but prior to it, he was playing well on the positive side of the possession ledger. He and Brandon Carlo, who earlier this month snapped a 115-game scoreless streak, serve primarily as the Bruins shutdown pairing. Torey Krug will be a terror in the offensive zone and absolutely nothing else. He’ll pair with John Moore who, probably for the first time in his life, won’t be the whitest person in the room.

As for the men of Four Feathers, hoo boy. Jeremy Colliton announced that he’s starting Cam Ward, according to Eric Lear. There have been several low points this year, but this already ranks in the top five, after Crow hitting his head and Bowman signing Brandon Manning as a solution to a problem the Hawks didn’t have. And he’s doing it because “He’s an important part of our group…Guys respect him and he’s played well for us.” Fuck off with that fish shit. The only thing that might be true about that is “guys respect him.” He’s not important and he has not played well for the Hawks by any metric. Holy shit, Jeremy, your trip to Notre Dame is the time you decide to make the Cool Youth Pastor moniker inapplicable? Someone hit this motherfucker with a surprise left. Either Colliton is really this stupid or this is coming from higher up (think Bowman or McDonough). I’m not sure which would be more infuriating.

There is no reason to start anyone other than Collin Delia no matter what your criteria are. Delia has played better, looked better, and is far, far more Irish than Ward. Christ, he’s posted a .957 against the MacKinnon line twice and Dallas’s “fucking horseshit” line! What else does he have to do to earn this, besides suck for 14 years, apparently? There’s really no argument against him, except if you want the Hawks to purposely tank in an effort for Hughes. But even if that did happen, there’s still a more-than-likely chance they’ll lose the lottery anyway, so, I guess fuck off with that mess.

Jesus Christ, they’re really gonna start Ward. This is like asking your parents for a puppy at Christmas and having them throw pieces of dog shit from a dog that isn’t yours at you on Christmas morning while yelling “NOT UNTIL YOU CLEAN UP AFTER IT.”

Other than this gigantic giardiniera fart, Sikura and Perlini have flipped, putting them on the third and fourth lines, respectively. Even though DeBrincat has done everything and more to earn a Top-6 spot, somehow Wide Dick on the wing with Strome and Kane is sort of working, so that’ll stand pat. The other thing that shouldn’t be working but is, is Keith–Gustafsson, which, whatever. Hockey is stupid sometimes.

The Hawks have had a nice run lately, and ironically, it’s come thanks to a strong power play and goaltending. If Dahlstrom–Murphy can shut down the Bergeron line, the Hawks continue to perform with the man advantage, and Ward somehow gets pulled within the first 10 seconds, you can see them pulling a stunner.

That is, of course, if you can get past all the pomp and circumstance of playing at Notre Dame. You’ll no doubt learn more than you ever wanted to know about its sterilized history, about how Bowman is an alumnus, and about how Jesus Christ is staging his Second Coming at South Bend. It’ll all be made even more insufferable with Pierre, Roenick, and Milbury all having a role in this one, where they will no doubt turn this game into their own personal St. Patrick’s Day of mindless self-indulgence about Notre Dame’s long traditions of grooming boys to be men while pretending they and the university writ large don’t have all the character and fortitude of an unflushed toilet. Oh, and Weezer is playing at some point during an intermission. I sure can’t wait to hear their new hit single about ride-sharing or whatever other banal aspect of rich, white dork culture Rivers Cuomo is peddling as art these days.

Hell is real, and it is located at South Bend.

Fuck Notre Dame. Fuck Boston. Fuck Weezer. Fuck Cam Ward.

Let’s go Hawks.

 

Game #42 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Half Way There, All Along I’ve Been The Traveler – The Power Play’s Recent Resurgence

By John Pullega 2123 0

One of the most baffling things about the Hawks during The Core’s 11.5-year run together has been the overall underperformance and at times downright putridness of the power play. With all of the scoring threats the Hawks have had since the 07–08 campaign—Kane, Toews, Hossa, Sharp, and DeBrincat, just to name a few—the Hawks have finished in the Top-10 for PP% just three times. In each of their Stanley Cup campaigns, the Hawks finished 16th, 19th, and 20th in PP% during the regular season, respectively. Their best finish came in 2015–16, when the Hawks finished second in the league. You might recall that as the year Patrick Kane scored 17 PP goals (T-2nd in league behind Ovechkin) next to Panarin and won the Hart, Ross, and Pearson (Lindsay).

Over the last year and a half, though, it’s looked dismal even by the Hawks’s underwhelming standards. For reference, last year they finished 28th, and they currently sit at 24th this year. But this year’s bad ranking was much worse just a few weeks ago, when the Hawks power play ranked dead last (31st).

Things have begun to look up recently, with the Hawks catapulting seven spots. But why?

For context, let’s first compare Time on Ice Per Game on the power play for the Hawks’s top time-getting defensemen between Quenneville and Colliton.

PP TOI/Game: Quenneville (15 Games)

PP TOI/Game: Colliton (26 Games)

Keith

2:34

1:03

Gustafsson

2:18

2:25

Seabrook

2:16

2:08

Right off the bat, you can see a huge difference in how Colliton uses Keith on the PP vs. Quenneville. We’ve been screaming in the rain about how Duncan Keith is not and never has been a good PP QB, and it looks like Colliton agrees. Since taking over, the Hawks have leaned primarily on Gustafsson and Seabrook in the QB1 and QB2 roles.

Now, let’s do the same for the Hawks forwards who tend to see the most time on the PP:

PP TOI/Game: Quenneville (15 Games)

PP TOI/Game: Colliton (26 Games)

Kane

3:34

3:43

Toews

3:15

3:05

DeBrincat

3:14

2:50

Schmaltz

2:53

2:22

Anisimov

2:20

1:20

Saad

1:46

1:34

Kahun

1:42

0:52

Strome

–

2:19

Both coaches used Kane, Toews, DeBrincat, and Schmaltz primarily. The biggest differences in terms of time were that Colliton has used Anisimov much less and replaced Schmaltz with Strome. There’s a frustrating dip in DeBrincat’s time under Colliton, but over the last six games, that number is closer to 3:20, so it may have just been Colliton trying things on. (John Hayden was on the PP for a while under Colliton. No, really.)

Essentially, Colliton has preferred Gus to Keith and Strome to Anisimov, quite rightly.

Now we have an idea about the big changes Colliton made (less Keith and Artie, more Gus and Strome). Let’s dig into the more recent success the Hawks have had on the PP. Check out the splits between the PP1 (Gus, Cat, Toews, Kane, Strome) and PP2 (Seabrook, Keith, Artie, Saad, Kahun) units over the last six games, which is when the PP started clicking:

PP TOI/Game (12/18–12/30)

Gustafsson

3:35

Kane

3:28

DeBrincat

3:20

Strome

3:15

Toews

3:11

Saad

1:04

Keith

1:01

Anisimov

0:52

Kahun

0:52

Seabrook

0:40

Colliton has really relied on his PP1 unit over the last six games. So that’s one piece of the puzzle. But that sure as shit doesn’t explain it all. Next, we’ll look at the difference between Kane–Seabrook and Kane–Gustafsson as a combo to determine whether who QBs for Kane matters.

Let’s compare Goals For and High-Danger Chances For between the Kane–Seabrook combo and Kane–Gustafsson combo. We’ll look over two time frames: 11/08–12/16 (19 games, beginning when Colliton took over) and 12/18–12/30 (6 games, beginning when the PP started clicking):

PP TOI/Game

Goals For

HDCF

Kane–Seabrook, 11/08–12/16/18

2:31

4

17

Kane–Gustafsson, 11/08–12/16/18

1:20

0

5

Kane–Seabrook 12/18/18–12/30/18

0

–

–

Kane–Gustafsson, 12/18/18–12/30/18

3:26

6

10

In isolation, it sure looks like simply having Gustafsson out with Kane regularly is far more effective than having Seabrook with Kane regularly. They’ve put up two more goals in six games than Kane–Seabrook did in 19, and the high-danger chances for are quickly catching up in a fraction of the time.

The reason we’re using six games as the touchpoint is twofold: First, the last time Kane played even a minute with Seabrook on the PP was on 12/16. He hasn’t played a single minute with Seabrook as the QB in the last six games.

Second, over the last six games, the Hawks have a 36.8 PP%.

Thirty-fucking-six-point-motherfucking-eight!

The only team ahead of them over that span is Pittsburgh (40%), who is sixth in the league and benefited from a 4/4 night against St. Louis on 12/29. What an outhouse that team and city is. The next closest teams over a similar span are Florida (35.3%), the third-best PP% team in the NHL, and Boston (33.3%), the fifth best.

But how do all of these numbers fit into the overall gameplay? One of the crazy theories we had earlier in the year was that the Hawks PP was struggling because of Kane, not despite him. Compare these two clips:

This is a clip of a Hawks power play against Vegas on 12/06. Notice how long Kane spends with the puck (“Carmelo-ing” as Fels calls it) in both instances and how it allows Vegas’s PK to set up, leaving only low-danger perimeter shots for Seabrook and DeBrincat.

This is a clip of the Hawks power play against the Stars on 12/20. Rather than playing with his dick on the boards, notice how much more movement Kane creates with Gus at QB. The Stars now have to focus on both Kane coming off the half-boards and Toews in the high slot. The biggest difference here is that Gustafsson can move farther than five feet in any direction, unlike Seabrook in the previous clip. With DeBrincat and Gustafsson cycling, Kane doesn’t have to make everything happen by himself. It also lets him move into higher-danger spots, such as when he skated to set up the slapper in the spot that DeBrincat was once in (DeBrincat cycled to the point while Gus took Kane’s usual spot).

Another wrinkle between the two set ups is how Colliton uses Toews. In the first clip, Toews rarely stayed put in the high slot, instead roving around the lower portions of the ice. This “movement” was less strategic and more moving for the sake of moving. Note how no one on Vegas pays much heed to Toews.

In the second clip, Toews tends to stay in the high-to-mid slot. After one retrieval behind the net at the very beginning of the clip, Toews never strays past the dots or lower than the blue paint. In this set up, Toews is a threat to either (a) tip a shot, (b) sweep in a rebound, or (c) set up in the slot for a wrister or a one-timer. By cutting unnecessary movement out, Toews makes himself a threat and gives Kane, DeBrincat, and Gus more real estate to work with.

While both of these set ups came under Colliton, you could easily mistake the first clip for a Quenneville set up. It may have just been a matter of time and experimentation, but once Colliton put Kane and Gus together on the PP1, things started to change.

It took a little over a month, but Colliton has done three things to improve the power play:

1. Massively reduced Keith’s role.

2. Put Gus with Kane at nearly all times.

3. Set Toews in the high slot and reduced unnecessary movement.

When you consider how much movement the Hawks PP has created over the last six games, the reason why the power play looks and is more formidable is likely a function of Gus’s skating ability and risk-taking. With Seabrook, the onus is on Kane to make plays because all Seabrook can do anymore is pound slappers from the point. That’s fine and all, but it’s a huge waste of Kane’s toolset. It forces everyone to play more conservatively, Kane included, because the point man in Seabrook needs cover and can’t create movement by himself. His passing can’t save him, basically.

Gus is more willing and able to make high-wire passes and plays because of his relative speed, decent vision, and the ways he takes advantage of Kane’s preternatural offensive skill, as we saw on Kane’s first goal against the Wild on 12/27. His aggressiveness and ability to cycle with Kane and DeBrincat, coupled with the threat of Toews in the high slot, open up more lanes for both good passing and shooting, rather than the dull perimeter passing they’d get with Keith and Seabrook.

While six games do not a power play make, the Hawks are trending in the right direction, and it looks like all it took was someone for Kane to perform with. The rub here is that you’re relying an awful lot on Gus not to do outlandishly stupid things, which is a coin-flip at best. Nonetheless, the results are clear:

1. The Kane–Gus combo has produced six of the Hawks last seven PP goals over six games. It took the PP 35 games to get to 12 goals prior to this combo playing regularly.

2. Since making Gus the QB on the PP1, the Hawks have the second-best PP% in the NHL, behind only Pittsburgh.

3. Before Gus became the QB1, the Hawks PP% sat at 11.4. With Gus as the QB1, it’s 36.8%. That’s a 223% increase in conversion rates. That’s right: 223%.

The sample sizes are small, but promising. If nothing else, it’s a relief to watch the Hawks PP do something, anything, other than suck out loud, even if it’s only for a little while. But the way the stats flesh out and the PP looks on the ice, this might be what the PP is now.

Stats compiled from hockey-reference.com, NaturalStatTrick.com, and nhl.com. Stats current as of 12/30/18.

Everything Else

Game #39 – I’m a Fool for I Believed Your Lies, but Now I’ve Seen Through Your Disguise – Panthers 6, Hawks 3

By John Pullega 1953 0

Box Score

Corsica

Natural Stat Trick

One of the worst shows I have ever seen live was Beirut at the Aragon in, like, 2011–12. I showed up for the first half hour, got bored, and left. It’s no wonder this game felt so familiar, because that’s the exact tack the Hawks took with this eminently winnable game tonight. After a hot start, the Hawks got buried by their own incompetence, which is just another way of saying business as usual. Let’s do this quickly: We’ve all got Feats of Strength to finish, I’m sure.

– Coming into this game on a three-game winning streak and fresh off Collin Delia’s stoning of the most dangerous line in hockey, Jeremy Colliton decided to ride the Cam Ward wave. This is some true Galaxy Brain shit. On the one hand, complaining about Ward getting the start tonight probably has a bit of looking a gift horse in the mouth to it. Coming into this game, he had a .949 SV%. On the other, those two games came against a floundering and hurt Preds and an even more hurt Dallas team. Also, in case Ward spasming a couple good games had made you forget, Cam Ward is really a used-car-lot wavy-arm guy who moonlights as a goaltender.

Ward should have been pulled after the first goal. For reasons that can only be deciphered by true Brain Geniouses, Cam Ward came out to challenge Hawryluk after Hawryluk overpowered Dahlstrom/Dahlstrom lost his edge. Except after getting about halfway out, Ward flinched and tried to go back, leaving Hawryluk—a guy who has never scored an NHL goal—a yawning net to shoot at. I don’t have adequate words to describe what a shitshow this goal was because there’s no excuse for a 1,000-year veteran to do what Ward did. You wouldn’t see that in a fucking beer league—as Scott Foster once showed us—and yet, here we are.

Then, as if to retroactively adjust to completely losing his ass and crease on the first goal, Cam Ward turtled into the net on Hawryluk’s second goal. Huberdeau’s stretch pass between Keith and Gustafsson was art, and those two probably share part of the blame, but at no point did Ward look like an NHL goaltender on this attempt.

The third goal was more on Forsling than anyone—as Forsling totally froze as Hoffman stepped up after Toews pressured Weegar up top, giving Hoffman too much time to pick his spot, which happened to be the back of the net via Forsling’s groin—but that fourth goal was the result of a rebound that would have made Dennis Rodman blush. And the fifth goal, because fifth goals are things we talk about when Cam Ward starts, was a simple short-side snipe that an NHL-caliber goalie probably puts some leather on. But alas, Cam Ward is not an NHL-caliber goalie.

Jeremy Colliton has done a lot right lately. Starting Cam Ward tonight is decidedly not one of them. Fucking ride Delia until he gives you a reason not to. Starting Cam Ward doesn’t do anything for this team.

– Dylan Strome is officially good. You can mark it down. His assist on Our Large Irish Son’s first goal of the year was a clinic in vision and patience. After stealing the puck at the offensive blue line, Strome set up behind the net off a Perlini pass, waiting for help. Murphy crashed, Strome fed him, and the rest is history. But the patience and nerve Strome showed behind the net was otherworldly. Strome had another steal around the same spot in the second, which led to two high-quality chances from Kane. He capped his night off with a goal off a Kane pass. Strome was the most impressive forward of the night, and it looks like the Hawks really have their #2 center in him.

– Our Sweet Boy Connor Murphy also had himself a night. You saw the goal he scored, which was a testament to his positioning and sneaky good wrister. Murphy played a big role in the Hawks’s third goal, leading the rush off a good Forsling outlet pass and grabbing the secondary assist on Strome’s goal. He also led the Hawks in even-strength TOI, led all Hawks D-men with a 51+ CF% at 5v5, and did it mostly against the Huberdeau–Barkov–Dadonov line. On top of all that, Murphy looked much more comfortable with the puck in his exits, which was a weak point in his game last year. Between Strome and Murphy, there’s a lot to hope for regarding the future.

– Here’s your gamely “Alex DeBrincat is not a third liner” alert. His goal was a bit flukey, as he was trying to pass to Kane through the slot and had the good fortune of sweeping in a pinballing puck, but a goal’s a goal. As much as we’d like to see him flip with Anisimov, he’s still making shit work where he’s at.

– Regardless of what Colliton ends up being, it looks like he might go down as the guy who fixed the power play. The top unit of Gus at QB; Strome in front; and Top Cat, Toews, Kane across has looked legitimately dangerous when it’s out there and Gus and Kane can be bothered to give a shit. It scored again due to Toews’s roving and retrieval and the movement Kane, Gus, and Top Cat show up top. It’s probably way too early to pronounce the PP truly fixed, but when’s the last time you looked forward to the PP?

– Just a quick reminder that Cam Ward sucks and we could have had Delia in net, who likely stops at least three of the five Ward allowed tonight.

– Dylan Sikura and Brendan Perlini led all Hawks in CF% tonight, with shares above 70. Perlini is going to be frustrating, as he’s big, fast, and has no finish, as evidenced again tonight with his janking of a shot toward a wide-open net early in the Hawks’s first PP. Sikura’s no savior, but he’s good on the third line.

– Carl Dahlstrom ended up in Coach Cool Youth Pastor’s doghouse tonight, spending the latter part of the game with Seabrook. You can maybe partially blame him for the first goal. But other than that, I’m not sure what else he did noticeably poorly. He and Murphy didn’t have the best game together, as Murphy’s peripherals spiked away from Dahlstrom, but I’m not sure what triggered Colliton to switch them up.

– Saad and Toews looked good in the first, then got completely horsed for the rest of the game. Erik Gustafsson also flashed evidence that he has a Give-a-Shit meter, and it was hovering around zero for the last two periods.  You can trace much of the loss to these facts, along with the fact that Cam Ward blows.

It wasn’t all bad, but it certainly wasn’t good. The Hawks will get a few days off before welcoming the Minnesota Mild to the UC on Thursday. Until then, stay toasty and toasted. Merry Whatever You Celebrate.

Beer du Jour: Miller High Life and Death Wish Coffee

Line of the Night: “It’s tough waking up and seeing how ugly I am now. I knew I didn’t have the looks before, but this doesn’t help.” –Connor Murphy explaining to Steve Konroyd how he felt after the Tyler Pitlick elbow.