Everything Else

Well Pilgrim, Not Until You Eat The Peanuts Outta My… -FFUD’s Player Reviews: Jan Rutta, better known as Who?

By Adam Hess 1633 0

Mats Halin has now been the Blackhawks’ director of European scouting for five years, and in that time he has been able to pull a few decent players out of that continent and into the Hawks system. Identifying Artemi Panarin and surely playing a role in getting him to sign here was no doubt his shining moment definitely bought him a lot of leeway. Jan Rutta’s first NHL season should have eaten up a bit of a that leeway. Rutta wasn’t outright terrible, but he was bad, and deserved more ire for just how bad he was. Lets dig in a bit.

Jan Rutta

57 Games, 6 goals, 14 assists, 20 points, -1, 24 PIM

50.08 CF%, -2.4 CF% rel, 47.92 xGF%, -2.24 xGF% rel, 51.1 Zone Start Ratio

On the face of it, those numbers are not awful, but on the worst Hawks team of the last decade, Rutta stuck out to me as the worst defenseman that saw regular minutes on this squad. He had the second-worst CF% among the team’s blue liners, with the only one behind him being Gustav Forsling – and we aren’t gonna get started on that yet, but it’s coming tomorrow. He was third-worst in xGF%, just above Keith and Forsling. The points look okay, but aren’t overly impressive, and the underlying stats are obviously bad enough to show that this is a player who is arguably not even good enough to crack the NHL roster.

Looking at his pairings, he spent more time with the aforementioned Forsling than anyone, and the two of them were pretty much abysmal together, with a 48.22 CF%. The blame for that probably lies more on the coach who saddled them together consistently than either of the players, because their individual play styles are not compatible. Rutta is not mobile, not a good puck mover, and isn’t a great reader of the play on either side of the ice, while Forsling is nearly the opposite though only reads the play well on offense. Rutta isn’t awful in his own zone, but he is not nearly good enough to make up for Forslings shortcomings in that area. He also is not fast enough to clean up the messes that might’ve been left when Forsling started to freewheel on offense, and that became evident quickly. This was a hair-brained pairing from the start, but that still doesn’t completely absolve Rutta from being terrible.

He also spent a decent amount of time (120+ minutes total) with Jordan Oesterle, and oh look they were terrible together too. That was mostly because both of them are terrible individually, and putting two terrible defensemen together to form a terrible pairing results in a 42.03 CF%. I’d like to never think about them together.

Now, to his credit, Rutta did at times prove to be a decent partner for Duncan Keith, with those two providing a fine-but-not-spectacular 52 CF% in 140+ minutes together. Sam and others here have talked plenty about Keith needing to recalibrate his play style and approach to the game, and there is a case to be made that Rutta’s style of play makes him a match for Keith because his lack of mobility results in some quasi-stability. However, Duncan Keith is still good enough to man a top pairing, and Rutta is the last defenseman you want to play on a top pairing. Also, that stability from Rutta might help a little bit, but as Sam said the other day, you prefer a mobile partner for Keith at this point to cover for him. So while the results weren’t awful, this isn’t an idea even worthy of pinning to the board in case you need to return to it. Toss in the trash, Joel.

Outlook: Overall, Rutta’s season was not good, and he is arguably not worthy of any NHL minutes next year. Luckily, he probably lines up as the odd man out when you consider you’re ideally gonna have Keith, Seabrook, Forsling, Gustafsson, Oesterle, someone who isn’t here now, and maybe even Jokiharju lined up as defensemen who are better than him and will be competing for minutes. There is the major red flag though, that being the contract extension he was handed near the end of the season, that might earn him some undue preferential treatment. That was an extremely confusing move from StanBo, and the cap hit is particularly worrisome. But, it’s not an albatross, and might even be a toss-in contract for when Stan dials up John Chayka and brings OEL to Chicago. Thanks.

Everything Else

Well Pilgrim, Not Until You Eat The Peanuts Outta My…-FFUD’s Player Reviews: Brent Seabrook or Maybe He’s Not Earthquake?

By Sam Fels 1675 0

It’s been a while now that Brent Seabrook has been our main punching bag. He actually started this slide years ago, in the lockout season if you’ll recall. He redeemed himself with THAT goal, and then THAT OTHER goal, and was mostly fine in the playoffs, but he did not have a good season. We blamed it on the nature of the campaign and not playing during the lockout. He wasn’t really any better the following year, and the Kings tore him apart in the conference final, scoring roughly 64 rebound goals while Seabrook watched alongside the rest of us. He rebounded in the last championship campaign, and was pretty much a monster alongside Duncan Keith’s Conn Smythe journey.

And that’s basically where it peaked. Seabrook isn’t the first to lose their battle with Time, and he obviously won’t be the last. It was particularly ugly at times this year, and we and others certainly didn’t hesitate to call it out.

The thing was, it might not have been that bad?

Brent Seabrook

81 games, 7 goals, 19 assists, 26 points, -3, 38 PIM

51.4 CF%, -1.36 CF% rel, 49.0 xGF%, -0.65 xGF% rel, 55.8 Zone Start Ratio

The problems for Seabrook were myriad, but the main one seemed to be that the Hawks didn’t know where to slot him. His pairing with Duncan Keith, the foundation on which this whole thing was built for only about eight years, just didn’t work. Keith doesn’t have the quickness to cover for Seabrook’s mobility that disappeared somewhere in 2016. Seabrook couldn’t cover for a recalibrating Keith. Mostly, it was just ugly, and it’s why of the d-men Seabrook played with his pairing with Keith had the worst metrics (48.5 CF%).

But on the flip side, for the entire middle portion of the season his pairing with Connor Murphy did work. Murphy wasn’t nearly as adventurous as Keith, so he was in better position to cover. Murphy allowed Seabrook to still do some of his cowboy act, which has always been part of his game. Together, they pushed the play the right way (53.0 CF%, 56.5 SCF%).

The numbers with Erik Gustafsson aren’t as good overall as they were with Murphy, but they’re still on the plus-side of the ledger and we all saw how it ended the season. Now, at the end of a season when all is lost probably isn’t the best time to judge things, but Gustafsson’s “Three Musketeers In One” act kept Seabrook in a strictly support role, which is probably what he should be doing. Seabs can’t go cruising up the ice where he’ll never get back if Gustafsson is leading rushes himself. And we know Gustafsson isn’t getting back. It’s hard to say if this is a a solution in the future or just something a flawed team came up with in the death throes of a season everyone wanted over.

The problems are obvious. Seabrook can’t move, and even his passing–still top level–is nullified when he can’t even give himself the time and space to execute it. He still wants to be as aggressive as he was, but he simply can’t. The times when he realized that and played a more reserved game, it was actually ok. It just didn’t happen enough.

Outlook: Both Seabrook and the Hawks have to accept what he isn’t anymore and figure out what he should be. Seabrook hasn’t quite adjusted his game the way Keith was at least trying to at times, and he’s going to have to. Ideally, on a team that has any hope of doing anything, he’s your third-pairing rock. He can still be your triggerman on the second power play unit, assuming you have two real-ass QBs for each (the Hawks don’t have one at the moment). If you absolutely have to you can probably get away with Seabrook taking #4 minutes, but your first three had better be something special. That doesn’t look like happening. Seabrook is cut out for the glorified Sopel/Rozsival role of years past. It’s up to the Hawks to find enough to get him there, and it’s up to Seabrook to accept that.

Everything Else

Well Pilgrim, Not Until You Eat The Peanuts Outta My… -FFUD’s Player Reviews: Duncan Keith or Diminishing Flash

By Sam Fels 1830 0

Duncan Keith had a couple things going for him this year, in terms of not being the subject of the hairdryer treatment from fans and media alike that Seabrook, Saad, and Toews got. One, Seabrook soaked up most of it amongst the d-men, mostly because Seabrook’s contract was never a bargain which Keith’s has been for a decade now. Or was. Second, Keith has never been put center of the Hawks marketing blitz like Toews has, nor has he show much motivation to be so. While he was the most important skater for the Hawks for said decade, and he was, he’s never been covered or treated that way, even though his silverware cabinet eclipses that of any of his teammates and most players in the NHL (to review: three rings, two Norris Trophies, two gold medals, and a Conn Smythe, the only Hawk who actually got the Conn Smythe he deserved).

So even though Keith has clearly hit the back nine on his career, the knives for him aren’t nearly as sharp. And they probably shouldn’t be. Let’s dive in, folks:

Duncan Keith

82 games (first time he’s done that since 2011), 2 goals, 30 assists, 32 points, -29, 28 PIM

51.8 CF%, 0.73 CF% rel, 51.3 SCF%, 47.1 xGF%, -3.57 xGF% rel

So if I were to map out the numbers over the previous five years, you would see that yes, these are lower than what Keith used to do, but they’re not really that far off what he was doing in 2016-2017. That’s when he was mostly paired with Hjalmarsson, they were taking the hardest shifts in terms of opponents and zone starts, and both of them were starting to creak rather loudly.

Here’s the scary part of Keith’s numbers this year, though. It’s with a huge uptick in offensive zone starts. This year Keith’s Zone Start Rating–the measure offensive zone starts against total starts–was 59.2. Last year it was 52.3. So even with start many more shifts in the offensive zone, Keith wasn’t really pushing the play at all. That’s a problem.

Another problem was finding someone to play with Keith. At this point in his career, Keith needs someone to do some of the work for him. He can’t be the ultimate defensive guy and squeeze the play up the ice as he had done in the past, with either Seabrook or Hjalmarsson basically being the “Break Glass In Case Of…” guy behind him. Most of his time was spent with Jordan Oesterle, who we know is basically a faint suggestion of anything. Oesterle is basically the blank slate you get when you Create-a-Player, before you earn any points to improve him. Even though they went back to it at the end of the season. Brent Seabrook simply isn’t up to it anymore. The pairing with Connor Murphy just didn’t quite work, which had to have been the blueprint before the season started. Then again, they only got about 10 games together, so it’s probably worth trying again next year.

A lot was made of Keith’s lonely two goals (one of which kept the Blues out of the playoffs so that should count for like 10, if not 100). What’s kind of funny is that Keith got more attempts per game, more shots on goal per game, and more xG per game than in his previous seasons. He just shot an utterly unfathomable and really quite comedic 1% overall. Even for a d-man that’s…I mean I think the adjectives are beyond me. Farcical would be a good place to start. Seuessian might be another. Some of that has to be a result of starting in the offensive zone more than ever before.

The thing is Keith has never been a great offensive d-man. And that sounds strange for a two-time Norris winner and has a few 50+ point seasons to his name. But Keith’s offense, as we’ve said repeatedly, springs from his defense. He’s not Karlsson. He’s not Subban. He’s not Hedman. He would stop rushes against at his own blue line or before, get the puck up to the forwards ASAP and then join the rush. He would be the late-man or rack up secondary assists. He’s not really, nor has never been, a playmaker.

So next year you can look for his point totals to go up simply because HOCKEY. But that doesn’t mean the Hawks can count on him to be a top-pairing puck-mover ever again. He’s not going to be. To go with the numbers, you could see that the plays Keith used to make, and the ones you wouldn’t necessarily teach, he couldn’t quite get to anymore. He couldn’t step up outside his blue line as consistently anymore because he could get beat to the outside. He couldn’t chase outside the circles in his own zone because more and more forwards could get around him. He couldn’t fly out to the corners in the same way because he wouldn’t get there in time or he’d get beat back to the net.

That’s not to write off Keith at all. His instincts are still upper echelon. What he needs is to find a way to shrink his game, and to do that the Hawks are going to have to find him a partner who allows him to. It has to be someone mobile, because you want someone who can cover for Keith and not the other way around. It has to be someone who can get up the ice the way Keith used to, and it has to be stressed to Duncs that he’s just not that guy anymore. Murphy in theory can do the first part but not really the second. Gustafsson is too wonky in his own end to do the first part. If Jokiharju were two years older, he has the skillset to be that guy. But he’s not going to be ready for that. Forsling has the Gustafsson problem. The answer is going to have to come from outside the organization. I just don’t know what that answer is, and know it most likely will be very expensive in terms of either money, chips in a trade, or both.

But then…all of Karlsson, OEL, and Faulk are probably going to be out there in the trade market…I’m not sayin’, I’m just sayin’.

Everything Else

Well Pilgrim, Only After You Eat The Peanuts Outta My… -FFUD’s Player Reviews: The Rest Of The Goofuses And Nincompoops

By Sam Fels 1791 0

Because we have to, we’ll go through the rest of the goalies who suited up for the Hawks, but altogether because they really were a mishmash of goo that is indiscernible from the next. I’m not sure any of these guys are going to matter ever. Maybe one might. Let’s just get through this and go about our day as if none of this ever happened. It’s pretty much what the Hawks are doing.

Jeff G.L. Ass

15 apperances, .898 SV%, 3.36 GAA, .909 at even-strength, .870 on the PK

We get why Q went to Glass when he did. At the time, his team couldn’t play defense to save their lives (and that never really did change). Anton Forsberg hadn’t grabbed the job with either hand. It was a nice story, and maybe the team would somehow try a little harder or be more aware in their own end with this journeyman punter in the net. Otherwise they’d get embarrassed.

And the thing was, it kind of worked for a game or two. Glass’s rebound control was awful, his positioning not much better, but the team did sorta kinda fight to clear all those rebounds away (so many rebounds…). His first three starts saw a win in Edmonton, an OT loss in Calgary, and a win in New York (Rangers version). Of course, looking over the list of opponents there and things get a little clearer, don’t they? After beating the Jets two starts later (seriously, Jeff Glass got a win over the Jets), he wouldn’t get another win and the team wouldn’t locate a fuck to give again. And that was that.

Glass isn’t an NHL goalie, and isn’t going to become one at 32-33. No, he’s not Tim Thomas, and that might never happen again. I suppose it was worth a shot, and now back to whatever smoke filled backroom he came from.

JF Berube

13 appearances, .894 SV%, 3.78 GAA, .905 at evens, .846 on the kill

I think I’m gonna car-ralph reading more of these numbers. Anyway, Berube was brought in for training camp, which means the Hawks thought they might have something to at least look at here. And if you squinted, you could see something of an NHL goalie in Berube. He ended up more square to the shooter than Forsberg or Glass. His rebound control was better. The problem was it took him roughly the same amount of time to move side-to-side as you would age a prime cut of beef. So it doesn’t really matter if you’re square if the puck is already behind you. Berube is 26 so I suppose there’s time for him to establish a career as a backup, but he’s going to have to get way quicker if that’s ever going to happen. We’re almost done I swear.

Collin Delia

I’m only throwing him on here because it’s been a while since the Hawks had a goalie in their system a while and brought them through. You’ll recall Niemi was only in Rockford a year. Raanta was straight into the Hawks team. Darling only spent half of a season in Rockford, and not even that. Delia is only 23, will be 24 at the start of next year, and I have this feeling the Hawks are going to give him a lot of time and a lot of chances. Delia’s numbers in Rockford aren’t all the impressive, but then again Rockford isn’t all the impressive (take that in whatever context you want and it’ll still be correct). But he closed the season well, and if he has a strong playoff series or two (assuming he gets the starts) then he could come into camp with a shot at surprising or at least getting the starting job in RockVegas next year all to himself.

 

Everything Else

Well Pilgrim, Only After You Eat The Peanuts Outta My… – FFUD’s ’17-’18 Player Reviews: Corey Crawford or Come Back, Shane!

By Sam Fels 1961 0

It’s that time. We gave you a week break. But now we must all pick through what was before we can figure out what should and shouldn’t be. It’s time for our world famous player reviews. And let’s start with the key log to everything, the player this season and the next few will hinge on, Corey Crawford.

Corey Crawford

27 starts, .929 SV%, 2.27 GAA, .935 SV% at evens, .902 SV% on the kill

God, don’t your eyes just bleed looking at those numbers? Doesn’t it make you wonder what might have been? You forgot about them, didn’t you? Because we spent so long looking at Forsberg’s or Glass’s or Berube’s .888s or whatever they were, it’s hard to understand was a .929 even means. Are those real numbers? Can you do that?

It’s important to remember how good Crow was. Crow’s SV% at 5-on-5 was fourth-best among all starters when he got hurt. His .859 high-danger save-percentage was the best in the league. His dSV%–basically the difference between what his expected save-percentage is based on the chances his team gives up and his actual save-percentage–was second-best behind Sergei Bobrovsky. His PK SV% was sixth-best. Crow is among the elite, and this debate is over on just how good he is. You’ll recall the Hawks’ PK was actually in the top five when Crow was around. It finished in the bottom half. He makes that much of a difference.

There’s no point in going any deeper on Crow, because everyone now knows the season collapsed without him. He’s far and away the most important Hawk, and probably the best. On the ice, there’s no question.

The problem is off the ice. Crow got dinged in Dallas right before Christmas, was awful in the last game before the Christmas break, and then simply became one with the ether from there on out. No one’s seen him, barely anyone has talked to him, and the Hawks’ shroud of secrecy isn’t helping matters. So that kind of affects…

Where We Go From Here: It’s impossible to say. In a vacuum, it’s real simple. Crow is back in the crease in September, he keeps the Hawks from being bad and any other move from there pushes them toward “good.” Crow by himself provides a high floor for the whole team.

But we can’t say that. While the Hawks and their media didn’t make anything of it, Crow apparently did get back on the ice somewhere around late winter and then wasn’t there anymore. In any other language, that’s a setback. And he hasn’t been on the ice since. The Hawks never used the words, “shut down,” which means Crow simply couldn’t get back on the ice with whatever it is he’s dealing with. He wasn’t kept off it. He just wasn’t out there.

So the Hawks can say everything will be fine and he’s on course to be ready for training camp, but there’s simply no evidence of that anywhere. When does he have to be back on the ice? July? August? What if he’s not? Is that part of the plan? If things were fine, I have to believe he’d be in contention to play for Canada at the World Championships if he so desired. It would at least give him game time. Knock off some rust. But that hasn’t been mentioned at all.

Thankfully for the Hawks, no one gives a shit around here about them in the summer. So Crow can not be on the ice all summer and they can say everything is fine and no one’s really going to look any deeper.

But until you actually see #50 out there, you’re never going to know. And the Hawks are going to have to find a way to shield themselves from this disaster again in case Crow isn’t going to be there. Which might not be possible, because there are only four or five guys who can do what Crow does. Do you make a play for a Bernier, or Lehtonen (barf), or Khudobin to get you out of a few weeks? Or one of Grubauer or Holtby if the Caps make a choice? Is that even possible? Bring Carter Hutton back? He wants to start full-time. How does that affect the cap room you have now?

The questions on this go deeper than the Hawks really want to admit.

Everything Else

Why’d They Hang Them So High? Perhaps In The Hopes It Would Make Them More Dead

By Sam Fels 2334 0

As Hess put it, our nightmare is over. The Hawks season has come to an end, and now they get the maximum amount of time to pick up the pieces, dust for prints, perform the tests, and try and diagnose and then prescribe. They certainly can’t complain the schedule will be too crunched to figure out what “The Plan” (it keeps coming up again) is going to be.

What will they find?

-As everyone has said though are hesitant to pin everything on, Corey Crawford going out was reasons 1-6 that this team did a face plant in front of everyone at the party including the girl they liked (this is no way ever happened to me in high school I assure you. Nope. Never).

We’ve said it a few times and it’s worth repeating. Since Crow went down the Hawks have the third-worst even-strength save-percentage, at .910. Crow’s was .935 before he got hurt, Last year it was .930, and he’s averaged .932 at evens the past four seasons. The Hawks gave up 112 goals in that time, and with Crow’s SV% that number would have been 81. Now, clearly it doesn’t work like that because Crow wouldn’t have started every game, but you see the problem.  Let’s throw in the penalty kill problems, where the Hawks had a .857 SV% after Crow got hurt, and when he did he was stopping shots at a .902 rate. Now, that number is astronomically higher than his career mark of .868, but again, it’s clear. Crow was worth anywhere from 10-15 goals, probably more. Or 8-10 points, maybe more.

Now you might say that’s still not enough to get the Hawks near the playoffs, but what we can’t calculate is how many goals for, and games overall, Crow might have changed. Goals change games. If Crow wasn’t letting in the terrible goals that the cavalcade of nincompoops and halfwits the Hawks rolled out there did, opponents couldn’t sit back as often and early as they did this season. Things may have been more open. The Hawks wouldn’t have looked so beaten, so early, so many times with Crow behind them, giving them the confidence he could hold the other team still at least. He gives them a platform to get ahead in games more often, and the assuredness they could stay there. One-goal deficits instead of two. Those things make huge differences in an NHL where basically every team is the same save a few degrees. I think that’s good for a few more points.

While the Hawks and/or their press say there’s no reason to think that Crawford won’t be ready in September, quite frankly I need a reason to think that he will. He’s still been nowhere near the ice lately, and the Hawks never used the words, “shut down.” He just didn’t make the bell. Maybe you’ll get pics of summer workouts. Then again, maybe you won’t. Then what? Me, I’d let him try and give the World Championships a whirl if he’s able and willing, just so he and the team can find out if he can play a stretch of games at all without being sidelined by a passing breeze or aggressive fart.

-But that’s not all. Joining the Hawks in the bottom-10 of SV% at even since Crow went to the land of wind and ghosts are San Jose, New Jersey, Pittsburgh, and Philly, all playoff teams. Only the Devils matched that with a bottom-10 shooting percentage as well (so what the hell are the Devils doing in the playoffs anyway?) So clearly, the Hawks didn’t score enough.

And their chance-creation wasn’t terrible. They were second in attempts per game, first in scoring chances. But middle of the pack in high-danger changes for per game. Some, and I’m terrified this will the front office who do, will conclude the Hawks didn’t create enough high-danger chances because they lack some drooling monolith in front. I remain unconvinced of that. The culprit to me is that the forwards had to do all the creating and converting, because this team got nothing from its defense.

33 goals, 115 points from the Hawks d-men. And that’s all 11 that played. Compare that to the 56 goals and 197 points the Predators got from their eight d-men who played significant time. In practice, the Hawks forwards had to get the puck from their zone to the attacking one, recover it, create all the chances while getting to the net, and finish them. Clearly it proved too much of a task.

This is the biggest thing the Hawks have to solve. They need to find at least one puck-mover, and they probably have to stop considering Duncan Keith one. Gustafsson has done enough to earn another look next year as a bottom-four puck-mover. But they need one more, and I don’t know where that one is. Jokiharju is going to need seasoning. Forsling will have to make quite the leap. They’re ain’t shit on shit in the free agent market. They’ll have to get creative here.

-Because with a mobile and at least threatening blue line, this forward corps has a lot of hope. If Dylan Sikura is all they think he is and Vinnie Hinostroza is what the numbers say he is and EggShell can actually play, there’s a top nine here a lot of teams would envy. Yeah I know. “THEY’RE TOO SMALL AND DEY DON’T HIT AND DEYRE NOT CHICAGO TOUGH.” Bite me. Give me all the speed and skill you can shove into a needle and inject. Play faster. Blitz teams like the Hawks were at times.

A lot of work to be done, but not as much as some might think.

Everything Else

High On The Hog: Who Sits?

By Jon Fromi 1881 0

The Rockford IceHogs are a single point away from earning a spot in the 2017-18 Calder Cup Playoffs. With the Blackhawks season over, there will be a lot of options for Rockford coach Jeremy Colliton this week.

Following the conclusion of the NHL season, the organization sent six players to Rockford to fortify the ‘Bago County Flying Piglets. Is this flood of talent a boon or bane to the IceHogs?

On the surface, this is a great problem for Colliton and the Hogs to have. What we have is a team that has put it together at an opportune time picking up some high-caliber talent. Lake Erie (now Cleveland) parlayed that combination into a Calder Cup just two years ago. Surely Colliton is going to find it hard to keep arrivals John Hayden, Andreas Martinsen, David Kampf and Victor Ejdsell off the forward lines.

On the other hand, why mess with what’s working? The current group has played very well in the past few weeks. Shouldn’t that be taken into consideration?

It would be easy to suggest that Colliton sit his AHL contracts in favor of a more high-end lineup. Of course, that would mean sitting your second leading goal-scorer and some other key personnel.

I can’t see the IceHogs sitting Tyler Sikura for anyone at this point. Having earned an NHL-deal for next season, Sikura added three more goals this weekend to push his season total to 22. Over his last ten games, Sikura the Elder has six goals and six helpers.

William Pelletier is another AHL contract that would be hard to see in the press box. His speed alone has been a huge plus for the IceHogs, who can count on the former Division-III standout to chase down pucks and negate icing. Oh…he also has 28 points (13 G, 15 A) on the season.

Hayden, Martinsen and Kampf have all spent a good portion of the season in the AHL. It’s difficult not to see them making Rockford a much tougher team to face, chemistry be damned. With three games remaining on the IceHogs regular season schedule, Colliton is going to have some interesting choices to make in the final week of the season, and possibly beyond.

So…who shines a seat? Here’s some speculatin’…

  • First off, I would think the depth at forward would keep D Robin Norell off a forward line, regardless of how much Colliton and/or the organization likes him skating on a wing.
  • If a playoff spot were to be locked up early this week, maybe we see Kyle Maksimovich or recently-signed Mathias From out there in the final weekend of action. Otherwise, they’ll just be along for the ride.
  • Graham Knott, who has been a fourth-line center for the bulk of the campaign, is probably the first regular who loses his spot.
  • Tanner Kero was injured Wednesday night in San Antonio; no word so far as I know regarding a return.
  • Henrik Samuelsson, who earned a full-time AHL contract from the Hogs with some strong play during the stretch run, is likely to be another candidate to sit.

Colliton will also have to decide which of three goalies (Collin Delia, J.F. Berube or Jeff Glass) anchors this team from here on out. Delia has had the hot hand, going 7-0-2 in his last nine starts, including both of Rockford’s wins this week. In that nine-game span, he’s posted a 1.84 GAA and a .935 save percentage.

Of course, Berube has taken a team to the AHL championship back in 2014-15 with Manchester and has good AHL numbers this season (2.37 GAA, .920 save percentage) despite being 7-8 for the Hogs. Glass has had some effective stints in Rockford this season as well, with very similar season numbers to Delia.

If Rockford can collect a single point in any of its last three games, or if Milwaukee fails to win any of its last three, then the IceHogs are playoff bound. Depending on how the final week plays out, it is possible that Rockford winds up as any of the four playoff seeds. Chicago leads the Central as of Monday; the Hogs have a home-and-home Friday and Saturday with the Wolves that could well decide the division.

The recent additions, along with the potential for advancement in the standings, are going to make for a crazy final week of the regular season.

 

Recaps

The IceHogs traveled to Texas this past week, claiming a pair of wins to put them on the brink of locking down a postseason berth. Rockford is fourth in the Central and within striking distance of first-place Chicago. Manitoba and Grand Rapids, who, like the Wolves have assured themselves of playoff action, sit just two points ahead of the Hogs.

Wednesday, April 4-Rockford 4, San Antonio 2

Rockford’s fifth win in a row came against a desperate Rampage club that was fighting for their playoff lives. The IceHogs came out on top of a fast-paced contest that saw quality chances turned away at both ends of the ice.

Matthew Highmore got the scoring started 4:21 into the first period, taking a backhand drop pass from Tanner Kero in the slot and five-holing San Antonio goalie Spencer Martin. Kero would wind up missing most of this game with an injury, but got hold of a stretch pass from Carl Dahlstrom coming into the Rampage zone to set up the goal.

The Rockford lead was short-lived, as San Antonio quickly potted goals by Michael Joly and Tommy Vinnelli. The Hogs tied the score late in a wild first period when Anthony Louis hoisted a backhand into the Rampage zone from just inside his blueline toward a waiting Martin. The bouncing puck was mishandled by Martin, allowing Lance Bouma to get to the rebound and knock it into Twine Town at the 17:11 mark.

The rest of the scoring on this night would be provided by rookie forward William Pelletier. The eventual game-winner came early in the second period with Rockford on the penalty kill. Viktor Svedberg got the play started by winning control of the puck along the half boards of the defensive zone. He tapped the biscuit to Highmore, who banked it to Pelletier in neutral ice.

Pelletier streaked down the left side into San Antonio territory, leading Highmore on a two-on-one rush. Electing to hold on to the puck, Pelletier struck gold short side to complete the shorthanded lamp-lighter 3:03 into the period.

Three goals were enough for Collin Delia, who stopped the Rampage’s last 19 shots over the final 40 minutes. Pelletier chased down Tyler Sikura’s clearing attempt in the final minute and guided it into an empty net to put a bow on the victory.

Highmore was voted the game’s first star. Along with Kero, Luc Snuggerud’s night ended early when he came off holding his wrist in the middle of the first period. Both the Hogs and the Rampage went 0-3 on the man advantage.

 

Friday, April 6-Rockford 3, Texas 2 (SO)

It took an extended shootout to decide this contest. When the smoke cleared, Rockford came out on top thanks to a big blast by Viktor Svedberg.

The piglets went down 1-0 to Texas on a Brent Regner tally late in the first. The IceHogs used a pair of power play goals to take a 2-1 lead by the first few minutes of the third period.

The first Rockford goal came midway through the game. Tyler Sikura was in front of Stars goalie Landon Bow to tip in an Adam Clendening offering from up top, tying the score 1-1 at the 8:56 mark of the second period.

The Hogs took the lead 4:11 into the third when Cody Franson found Chris DiDomenico above the right circle on the man advantage. The shot whizzed by Bow and into the top left corner of the Texas net.

The Stars pulled Bow late in the game and it paid off in the form of a Gavin Bayreuther goal that came off of a long rebound with 1:13 to play. Neither team could convert in Gus Macker Time, necessitating the shootout.

Travis Morin put Texas up 1-0 in the third round of the shootout, but Franson was able to respond for the IceHogs. In the bottom of round five, Svedberg skated to the slot and slapped home the game-winner, earning him first star honors.

Rockford wound up going 2-2 on the power play, while stopping both of the Stars opportunities. Collin Delia made 22 stops on the night as the Hogs picked up their sixth straight win.

Saturday, April 7-Texas 4, Rockford 3

Rockford couldn’t hold onto a two-goal lead in the final period, giving up a trio of Texas goals to drop the final game of a Lone Star road trip.

As he had the night before, Brent Regner put the Stars up 1-0 with a goal 5:51 into the game. This one came on the power play, which would burn Rockford twice on this evening.

The Hogs would draw even late in the first, with Tyler Sikura gaining control of a loose puck in the slot and sending it past Stars goalie Landon Bow at the 18:31 mark. Sikura would get his second goal of the game 4:29 into the second period. This one came from a long-distance attempt from the left half boards.

Rockford gained a 3-1 advantage midway through the second after Anthony Louis whiffed on a centering attempt by Luke Johnson. The puck slid through the circles and onto the waiting stick of Alexandre Fortin, who knocked it past Bow at the 11:29 mark.

Unfortunately for the Hogs, Texas rallied in the final 20 minutes. Brian Flynn sent a slap shot past Rockford goalie Matt Tomkins in the third minute. Roope Hintz skated to the bottom of the left circle and beat Tomkins high to tie the game with 6:13 remaining.

Travis Morin turned a stretch pass from Gavin Bayreuther into a two-on-one rush late in the game. His pass to Joel L’Esperance was one-timed past Tomkins to complete the comeback with 2:54 left.

Tomkins, who was starting his first game for Rockford since February 3, stopped 30 of 34 shots on the night. The IceHogs failed to convert on either of their two power play chances, while Texas was 2-5. Sikura’s two-goal performance was enough to be named the game’s second star.

 

The Final Countdown

Tuesday night in Iowa would be a great time to punch that playoff ticket. The Wild have plummeted in the standings down the stretch, losing nine of their last ten.

The regular season is an intriguing home-and-home with Chicago Friday and Saturday. The Wolves have locked up a playoff berth but is the type of organization that likes division titles to brag on. Hard to see them resting starters. The Hogs, however, had three straight wins over Chicago in March.

Milwaukee, for those that gaze upon the out-of-town scoreboard, play in Chicago Tuesday, then wind up the season with a home-and-home with Iowa. Nothing is assured yet.

For updates on Rockford’s playoff status this week, follow me @JonFromi on twitter.

Everything Else

Game #80 Look at All the Loonys and the Sad-Eyed Failures – Hawks 4, Blues 3

By Rose Rankin 2204 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Corsica

By every measure, the Hawks got their asses kicked in this game—shots, possession (in the first and second), faceoffs, you name it. And yet, they capitalized on the Blues going full-on Blue-ing themselves, and the Hawks are halfway towards fucking them over completely and keeping them out of the playoffs. To the bullets:

–It was a big night for Hawks’ nobodies. Both Andreas Martinsen and Blay Killman took their first steps toward what is assuredly legendary status with the Blackhawks with their first-ever NHL goals. And Killman’s was short-handed! (That’s his name, isn’t it? Ah, who gives a shit.) Everyone gets their 15 minutes, right?

–It was a bigger night for Alex DeBrincat, who now leads the Hawks with 28 goals. He just undressed Edmundson midway through the third to tie the game at 3. We’ve said it before and it’s no surprise at this point, but this guy gives me hope for the future, which is about all we’ve got. Well, that and schadenfreude.

–And it was an even bigger night for Duncan Keith, who scored is second—count it second—goal of the year, and the timing couldn’t have been better. Patrick Sharp drew a penalty late in the third and Keith was able to miraculously avoid all shinpads in the area and get the winner. Dreams do come true!

–All that’s great and not to be Debbie Downer here, but Connor Murphy had a rough one. I’m particularly bummed to see it come near the end of the season when he really needs to finish strong, both for his own confidence and as a fuck-you to Quenneville. But no, his turnover in the defensive zone led to Bortuzzo’s goal in the first, and his high-sticking penalty later that period resulted in the power play to start the second that set up Schenn’s goal (time on the pp had just expired so it wasn’t a pp goal but it was one of those situations where they were cycling and still riding out the man advantage). Murphy recovered his composure by the end of the second but finished with a 42 CF% for the night. Overall, not one for the highlight reel.

–In other tales of questionable defense, Tarasenko scored in the second period after Jan Rutta turned over the puck at the offensive blue line, but honestly, as he reached the zone, Rutta was alone with three Blues closing in around him, and c’mon, it’s Jan fucking Rutta, what did you think was going to happen? Pierre and the rest of the broadcast team lost their shit over him giving the puck away, but again, it was Rutta for god’s sake. It just felt like a matter of time before Tarasenko capitalized on an opportunity; Rutta has had way worse offenses this season than this one.

–All that aside, we fucking beat the Blues and severely damaged their playoff chances. Sikura had some flashes, Jurco had a strong game and led the team in possession, and Berube was just good enough…better than Jay Gallon which may not be saying much but so fucking what?

This is my last Hawks wrap of the season, people! Pullega and Hess are going to bring it home for you for the last two games. It’s been absurd amounts of fun, and I want to thank all of you for reading even if we don’t love the way the season worked out. Onward and upward!

Beer du jour: Fist City by Revolution

Line of the Night: “Play like Scott Foster is in the net!” –Adam Burish, giving his best advice of the season.

 

Everything Else

Game #80 – Hawks vs. Blues Preview/Racquet Restringing: I Don’t Wanna Be Found At The Sound Of The Bell

By Sam Fels 1782 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Hawks 32-37-10   Blues 43-30-6

PUCK DROP: 7pm

TV: NBCSN (It’s Rivalry Night, Don’t Ya Know?)

THE COLD AND DESPERATE: St. Louis Gametime

This is what it’s come to. This “small club” mentality. We used to mock those (i.e. the Blues) whose goals and aims, for fans and players alike, was merely dragging a superior rival down. We laughed that they had nothing else to hang on to. Remember April ’11, when the Blues were determined to knock the Hawks out of the playoffs? Sharp rushed back on one knee and Toews was able to take advantage of Ty Conklin having the angle awareness of a drunken sloth to win it in overtime. That wasn’t the last time that’s happened between these teams of course, the Blues claiming minor/moral victories here and there while the Hawks collected the real baubles. Pictures in a box at home…yellowing and green with mold…

And now this is where we are. The only hope to have a smile about this season is two games with the wholly desperate Blues, who sit one point outside the playoffs but with a game in hand on the Avalanche, who hold the last spot. Those two play on the last night of the season, so even if the Hawks were to somehow get around having unemployed rodeo clowns in net and take both of these next two in regulation, the Blues could still pull themselves out of the muck by beating the Avs in Denver (assuming the Avs don’t beat the Sharks tomorrow night). Further complicating matters is the two teams are tied on ROW at the moment at 40. So it’s going to be white knuckle time for everyone.

And it hurts to admit it would bring a smile to my face if the Hawks cost the Blues a playoff spot. We’re supposed to be bigger than this. The season is lost and our eyes are always supposed to be pointed higher. But I’m a small and petty man, and dragging someone into the muck with you, especially if it’s these cretins… if that’s the only catharsis we’re going to get then let’s have it. Just to let them know they’ll never be free. Plus there’s the added bonus that missing the playoffs will send that organization into an existential crises that can’t help but have hilarious results.

Then again, all the Hawks might have to do is just remain upright and let the Blues do what they do best…Blues all over themselves. They had a home date with the nothing-to-play-for Caps on Monday and promptly blew a lead to lose 4-2. They gave up a touchdown to the Coyotes on Saturday night. They lost to the Knights before that. Only the Avs hiccup in California so far has even allowed the Blues to have a shred of hope. It would suck for the Hawks to be their lifeline, you have to admit.

It’s not like the problems have changed much since we last saw the Blues a couple weeks ago. Jake Allen can’t put it together, and yet they’re determined to shove the job right down his throat. Carter Hutton, who kept the team afloat in January, but admittedly fell apart in February, has played twice since March 1. He got lit up by both Dallas and Arizona. So they’re going to almost certainly let Allen take all three of the remaining games, and he’s barely been ok of late. He had a .916 in March, which is all right, but all right might not save a team that currently has Kyle Fucking Brodziak at a #2 center. That’s what happens when your GM goes into sell-mode but only like halfway and the rest of the NHL can’t bury your half-in, half-out team.

That’s another problem for the Blues. They don’t score a ton, even though they carry the play and chances in most games. They have one genuine, class finisher in Tarasenko, which you knew. But most everyone else who did at least a passable impression of one has gone cold. Schenn has one goal in eight. Schwartz has two in 11, and both of those came in the same game. Alex Steen was dropped into a vat of DIP. The only forward other than Tank who’s on anything resembling a hot streak is Patrik “Yes Somehow He’s Still Here” Berglund, with four in his last six. And he has a such a sterling rep for showing up when it counts. If Tarasenko doesn’t fire them into the playoffs, ain’t no one else gonna. Thankfully for them they get a face-full of JF Berube or Jeff Glass or whatever other form Quenneville and Bowman can dig out of their ear to play goal the next two games.

As for the Hawks… oh christ who gives a flying fuck? You know the drill here. Some dope in net, and basically the same lineup you’ve seen. Maybe Q will break up the “Kids” line of Top Cat, EggShell, and Sikura because they got worked in Colorado and there’s no sheltering them on the road. Maybe he’ll continue to see what they can do in the deep end. Blay Killman will probably exit stage right after getting a run-out in front of his college and drinking buddies in Denver. That should see Jan Rutta return. And more of Gustafsson-Murphy, which might be the only pairing you see again next year given how things have gone for them. These are the lights were trying to find our way with.

Three more to go, people.

 

Game #80 Preview

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Let’s Discuss All Things McD

By Sam Fels 2411 0

Well, not all things. But there are a couple things out in the bloodstream I’d like to talk about. The first was this from last week’s 31 Thoughts by Elliote Friedman. Before we get to the actual merits of the idea McDonough suggested at the GM meetings, I can’t help but smirk at the, “But we’re still paying them, right?,” line. Really lets you know where things are in the minds of really all presidents and owners. Yes John, you’re still paying them. Just like NFL players that don’t dress on Sundays (there are seven of the 53 who don’t), or the guys in suits at the end of an NBA bench. What McDonough is really asking here is probably more to the point of if they can find a way to not pay them then to sub them in.

But it’s his idea of having the option of subbing in players mid-game that gets the press here, and I have to say it’s at least worth thinking about. Much like a sub in soccer, it would bring one player out for the rest of the game while keeping the subbed in one involved the rest of the way. Injuries wouldn’t be as serious to a team in a game if after the period or even immediately you could dress one of your scratches.

The strategy of it would be the real watch. As this season has gone along I’ve been more and more leaning toward seeing teams dress seven d-men and have 11 forwards, and having your three or four best forwards get the extra shifts. Just here in town, what would be more preferable: getting Andreas Martinesen 12 minutes or seeing Kane, Saad, DeBrincat getting an extra two or three minutes? Think of it like batting your best hitter in the #2 spot. It’s become the new thing to do, because over a season you wring an extra 50 or more ABs. Well, two-three minutes a game over a full season probably nets you more goals, and these days things are settled on a handful of goals for or against.

This would only extend that. Down in a game you could bring in your cowboy d-man whom you’re afraid to play over a game or your shutdown guy who can’t really be trusted either. Or an extra forward if you want, It probably can’t sway too many games because if a certain player was that good he wouldn’t be scratched anyway. But still, it provides intrigue.

There’s only one downside that I can see: This would give coaches an easier outlet to have a goon/thug on the roster and only play him for a period. You can easily see a team getting whomped one night and a coach reaching for perhaps the most childish and dumbest hockey tradition of “message sending.” So out for the third comes whatever barely developed beast the team has out of the cage where he was tossed raw meat and fish heads to “stir shit up” and really cause a scene. You know this would happen. And we’d all be dumber for it.

There are obviously questions. How do you keep these players warm for a period or two? Simply riding the bike isn’t going to be enough. Can they get a five-minute skate at intermissions before the zambonis come out? Maybe, maybe not, and with the intermission mishegas it’s even less likely. But there’s probably a way.

It’s worth thinking about. The NHL shouldn’t outright dismiss any new ideas right now, and this doesn’t significantly warp the game while giving coaches more options and keeping players more involved. Maybe teams are more tempted to give their stars nights and periods off if they can, and keep them fresh for when it really matters, which really should be a bigger concern in the league. It’s worth talking about.

-As for McDonough’s day job, I see more people yelling at Lazerus and the other beat writers about who will GM the Hawks next year. I think a history lesson is important.

You may not have been around then, but when McD and Rocky first took over they knew enough to know they didn’t know jack or shit about hockey. So they brought in Scotty Bowman as their de facto president of hockey operations. It was Scotty who told them they’ll never figure out what they have on the roster if they don’t get a real coach in there, and only waited four games to whack Denis Savard thanks to Quenneville’s DUI the previous summer. (and it was also Scotty who probably told them to find a way to torpedo Tallon to hire his son, but considering how the 08-09 season went, that was put on hold for a year). Scotty advised them on pretty much every hockey decision.

So for those who want Stan fired, keep in mind that Scotty is unlikely to help find a replacement for his son, and he’s also 135 years old now. That would leave McD and Rocky to their own devices, and quite frankly I can’t help but think it might result in something looking like the Bears “search firm” adventures of the past, or seeing which way Ernie Accorsi’s wig is pointing that day.

Perhaps in ten years McDonough has taken time out from telling everyone what a great job he’s done or slathering himself in his own praise while presiding over one of the more born-on-third organizations in sports to get some connections and plug himself in a bit more to actual hockey goings-on. But I wouldn’t be so sure. Remember his presidency of the Cubs wasn’t even two years and all he did there was open the checkbook for Jim Hendry and his barrel to prepare for the sale of the team. This isn’t a man with a “grand plan.”

There will come a time that Stan has to be fired or let go or he’ll walk and McD will have to find his replacement on his own. I’m just not sure you want that ASAP.