Everything Else

Game #59 – Blue Jackets 5, Hawks 2: I’m Sorry I’ve Come For An Argument

By Sam Fels 1768 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Corsica

It’s ok, the Hawks will still get a solid slate of bums for a while yet. But what we’ve seen is that when they don’t get bums, and they have to play anyone serviceable in this streak, they’re just not up to it. Boston and Columbus have shown the world their true colors, and the Bruins and Jackets aren’t even really near the cream of the crop of the league (pulls out single-serving of half and half and starts complaining about Jack Tunney). The Hawks can actually do some things when the other team turns off, or put in a great 10-20 minutes, but overall, they still have some weaknesses they can’t hide against teams that have the patience, coaching, and skills to exploit them. Let’s dive in…

The Two Obs

-The biggest difference last night, at least in most of the goals, was the difference in game-breaking speed. Other than Panarin’s lucky, blind deflection off a draw, every other goal for the Jackets was off a rush. Either they beat the Hawks on a change, or they capitalized on a turnover, or they got to the outside. When there is an opening, the Jackets have, at minimum, Atkinson, Panarin, Dubois, Anderson, Wennberg who can get away from you. Or at least the Hawks can’t catch. Who do the Hawks have with game-breaking speed? …still here….yeah, exactly. And that’s especially true on defense, where the Hawks don’t even have one d-man who you’d even describe as fast. At least now that Duncan Keith is either thinking about metal songs he’d like to listen to or flailing desperately at cleaning up Seabrook’s messes. There isn’t even one on the roster. Until the Hawks fix this, they’re going to be justifiably in a position they’d rather not be in (ok, I swear that’s all of them).

-This game will do nothing to stop the flow of Panarin-longing, which isn’t annoying at all. It’s not that Panarin wouldn’t help, because obviously he would. But he wouldn’t help enough, and certainly not for the price he’s going to command. I’m betting the minimum is $9 million a year, and could well go higher than that. You may scoff at that, but he’ll be coming off at least back-to-back 80+ point seasons, which not even Tavares could boast last summer.

Panarin doesn’t play defense. That’s where the Hawks focus needs to be. Sign Karlsson, Offer-sheet Trouba. Trade for Dougie. Pry Hampus out of the sinking ship in Anaheim. Any of these or of this ilk have to be priority one, two, and three. Not signing Kane’s fellow good-time boy.

Secondly, if winning were really central to Panarin’s thoughts, he’d stay right where he is. If Bobrovsky wasn’t dry-heaving his free agent year into the gaping maw of the universe, the Jackets are likely comfortably ahead in the Metro. They have a young, dynamic blue line and a good crop of young forwards. They’re not all that far away. But Panarin’s camp keeps whispering, or louder, hinting at “being on a coast.” Ok, let’s look at teams on the coasts:

Panthers – suck

Lightning – don’t need him nor can afford him

Capitals – technically on the coast but not what he’s talking about

Flyers – suck

Rangers – suck

Bruins – ok maybe? The Boston press will get a huge kick out of him the first time he doesn’t backcheck.

Kings – suck

Ducks – even worse

Sharks – can’t afford him

So yeah, you tell me what matters to Panarin. He’ll always put up numbers, but you can have him.

-The metric numbers are skewed due to the dominant second period the Hawks put up, but at least that was fun. But that didn’t stop Keith, Seabrook, Toews, and Kane to have sub-even numbers. Coach Cool Substitute Teacher simply has to split up Keith and Seabrook, because they’re getting buried every goddamn night. They can’t play together, and the more they do the more likely it is that Keith just chucks it.

You’re going to be terrible defensively anyway, so get Jokiharju up here, and then your top four is some combo of Gustafsson, Keith, Murphy, and the kid. It can’t be any uglier than this.

Toews is a different problem. Much like the team, the results are better than last year but the foundation of the process beneath it is faulty. Sometimes you lose a draw clean, and I don’t want to get on him about that back-breaking fourth goal where that happened. But Toews has been cheating on the fastball all year, not quite getting as low on his defensive duties and looking to get out of the zone quicker. And hey, that’s how the game is played now and if he had any d-man worth a shit that might work even better, as they would just get the puck out and up to him.

But going forward, the Hawks already have one center they have to spot judiciously in Strome. They can’t really have Toews be another, though age may leave them with no choice, or they’re going to have to find another center whom they can dungeon along with Kampf.

-Brandon Saad with another 70% Corsi-share. No, the Hawks didn’t win that trade. But they still have a very good player as a result of it. Both of these things can be true, and we should all just accept it.

Seems like enough for this morning.

Everything Else

Game #59 – Blue Jackets vs. Hawks Preview, Aldermanic Debate – Medium In The Middle

By Sam Fels 1832 0

 vs 

Game Time: 7:30PM CST
TV/Radio: NBC Sports Chicago, WGN-AM 720
Urban Meyer Is A Sociopath: The Cannon

With the NBA All-Star festivities taking place, the Hawks will get a rare premium Saturday night home game in the mid-winter. They’ll welcome the Columbus Blue Jackets to West Madison, who are threatening to be wildly entertaining over the next few days, though not for on ice-reasons.

Everything Else

Game #59 – Blue Jackets vs. Hawks Spotlight: Columbus, This Is Your Life

By Sam Fels 1588 0

It would be easy to deride Columbus’s situation, and really their overall existence. God knows I would love to. This is probably the best team the Jackets have ever had, certainly the best era, and they’re going to watch their two most important players traipse to the exit either next week at the deadline, or in the summer. It only further proves that Columbus will have a hard time competing when most players are only ever going to view it as a launch-point. First Rick Nash, now Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky have concluded that Ohio is not a place where they can accomplish what they want, and nor is it an interesting enough place to be to keep one’s mind from wandering to places with something other than buildings that house an insurance company and drunk OSU students/football coaches.

And yet, what if it just isn’t going to be that bad for the Jackets?

Let’s play it out and say that the Jackets decide that yeah, we’ll lose them for nothing, but with Panarin and maybe a resurgent Bob in the playoffs. There’s no reason they can’t come out of a much of a Metro Division. There’s no juggernaut there. They had the eventual champion Caps on the ropes last year, until Bobrovsky turned into Eeyore in net and Panarin basically disappeared. Also the switch of Grubauer to Holtby made a huge difference to the Caps. But the Penguins can’t seem to get right and Evgeni Malkin is having the most stupefying season of his career. The Caps can beat the Sharks in San Jose one night and give up a touchdown the next. The Islanders have two goalies playing out of their minds. They’re also the Islanders.

Even a conference final appearance and a swift kick to the head by the Lightning would be way farther than the Jackets have ever been, and a run and the interest it would spark in the city would lock fans in even for the “Great Russian Spies Departure.” So let’s look at what’s left.

The Jackets would still sport Cam Atkinson, who was a 35-goal scorer before Panarin showed up and everyone in the NHL was a 35-goal scorer, and Pierre-Luc Dubois up front. Boone Jenner, Alex Wennberg, and Josh Anderson probably make for a pretty good third-line in a 3+1 model. At the back, you still have Seth Jones (down-ballot Norris candidate), Zach Werenski, Ryan Murray, and Markus Nutivaara. That’s the envy of a lot of teams, especially in the East. The Penguins and Caps are certainly on the backside of their windows, and who knows if the Islanders can goof this again. You’re ahead of the Rangers, Devils, and Flyers, who can’t unfuck themselves. And maybe one day the Hurricanes figure it all out, but we’ve been saying that for three or four years.

You also suddenly have $35M in cap space, or thereabouts. Sure, Werenski is going to get a big raise in the summer. Murray and Dubois follow the summer after that. But maybe you can finally jettison Brandon Dubinsky and his fake-tough guy act and also perhaps lose David Savard too. That keeps you about even.

You can buy a goalie and a winger and/or center. You still have a top line with Atkinson and Dubois and just about any doofus. You’ve got depth. You’ve got a blue line. It doesn’t have to be that bad.

And maybe you’re adding whatever you salvage for Panarin in the next week. Bob’s trickier, as his so-so season and very spotty playoff record would make a lot of teams nervous about going for this year. Maybe you sacrifice your chances this year while adding to next year’s. And then you get to spend the next few seasons playing that card, ever so annoyingly, about how you’re now a team of players who really want to be here. “Ohio Proud” or some horseshit that they love around those parts. Just a different shade of the “no one believed in us!” card. That only keeps people coming through the gates and that goddamn cannon firing.

It’s funny to think of Columbus as a hockey outpost. And it has been. It feels like this season and summer will make it so again. But that doesn’t have to be the case.

 

Game #59 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Game #59 – Blue Jackets vs. Hawks Q&A: We Bad, We Nationwide

By Sam Fels 1462 0

Got a twofer for ya. Alison Lukan (@AlisonL) is the Jackets beat writer for The Athletic. We also dragged up this thing called The Pale Dragon (@PaleDragonCBus) from JacketsCannon.com. 

Everyone is aware of the Sophie’s choice the Jackets FO faces with Panarin and Bobrovksy. What’s the feeling amongst the fanbase? Are they jaded by having what is probably the best Jackets team ever have this cloud over it? Would they just prefer to see the back of them both and have it over with? Will there be any lingering damage?

Alison: It’s two different tales, really. I don’t think ultimately, that fans want either player to leave, but there’s been far more passion towards keeping Panarin than Bobrovsky. THis is ironic considering how much Bobrovsky has done to make the team what it is, but that longer tenure means that some are keenly aware of how he’s not played his best in the playoffs, and that tempers current worry about him leaving. As for Panarin, he doesn’t speak to the media much at all, and has been able to ride an easy-going persona through all this, making it easier for fans to pull for him to stay. I think there is definitely a segment of the fan base that fears what will be once these two leave, and there are likely some who don’t truly realiize what the impact will be, but that takes us to the ultimate question you asked about lingering damage. If Kekalainen and company can navigate this situation to a deep post-season run and/or a solid return in trade, this may not linger as the biggest story in franchise history.

Dragon: It has definitely been a cloud hanging over the season. Just today one of our readers asked “how can I root for these guys when I know they’ll be gone?” This is a good team – tied for fifth most wins since the start of 2016-17 – and yet we’re poised to lose the two best players on the team, and arguably the two most talented players in franchise history. That doesn’t happen very often. 

I suspect that the fanbase will calm down after the trade deadline. Then the uncertainty will have passed. Either the Russians will be gone then, or we’ll have them as rentals and then they’ll leave. Our readers seem to be split 50/50 on whether Panarin should be traded or kept through the playoffs. The sentiment against Bob is more negative because he’s having a below league average season, and he’s had a poor attitude. He walked out on the team after getting pulled from a game last month. Bread, meanwhile, is playing as well as ever and seems to be enjoying playing with his current linemates.

Does all this drama distract from how great of a season Cam Atkinson is having again?

I was just thinking about this the other day. I don’t know that it “distracts” but i do believe Atkinson should be getting more attention for what he’s doing (and his body of work as a whole). The Panarin / Bobrovsky stuff has certainly sucked up a lot of the media spotlight – especially on the national level.

Thank you for asking about Cam. I wasn’t sure anyone else around the league recognized how good he’s been. As a fellow vertically-challenged man, he’s long been a personal favorite. He’s having a career year and could break Rick Nash’s franchise record for goals in a season (41). In contrast to the Russians, he signed a long term extension last season and has often expressed his love for the city. His wife had their first baby last year, they’ve bought a house in the suburbs, and he has started his own business here (a hockey skills training center).  He was named one of the alternate captains this year, which recognizes that he has long been one of the most popular figures in the locker room. If he plays out his contract here, he should break all of Nash’s franchise records.

We seemingly ask about Ryan Murray every time. But here he is already with a career-high in points, and the metrics are kind as well. Finally finding his place?

I am admittedly, a Murray fan, have always been so. The difference this year is that he’s healthy, quite honestly. He’s always had this level of play in him, and I think it shows in that the coaching staff has recognized that also and given him quite a few minutes alongside Seth Jones.

We’re finally seeing why Murray was the #2 overall pick in 2012. I think the biggest factor is that he’s finally healthy. It hasn’t been one nagging injury, but rather a frustrating inability to make it through the season unscathed, outside of playing all 82 in 2015-16. Combined with some defensive struggles from Zach Werenski, Murray has earned his way into the top pairing with Seth Jones. He’s still no major offensive threat like 8 and 3 are, but he makes up for it by his play in the defensive zone. His best skill is his vision, to find the right place to put an outlet pass. That’s where the assists are coming from.

So we know that come July 1, the Jackets will be without their two Russian stars. But with Dubois and Atkinson up front, a blue line that at least goes two pairs deep, and a lot of cash to spend, is there a reason the Jackets can’t quickly recover?

I answered this somewhat in the above question, but I agree. There is a talented core in this team regardless of if the two free agents leave. The team will have to replace that elite talent in at least one or possibly two bodies – as we know that’s essential to make a run – but this doesn’t have to decimate the franchise by any means.

I’m always an optimist, but I genuinely believe this can still be a good team going forward.  It’s one of the youngest roster in the league, with only three regular players aged 30 or older. Most of the core is 25 or younger. My hope is that GM Jarmo Kekalainen adds another long term piece at the deadline (Stone? Duchene? Huberdeau? DeBrusk?), whether or not he’s able to move the Russians. That will help to fill the hole this summer. I don’t expect to make a flashy free agent signing, but I would expect Jarmo to be active in the summer trade market. Teams like Toronto and Tampa are facing a cap crunch, and Columbus could take an RFA or other team-controlled player in exchange for picks and prospects. Much like how we acquired Brandon Saad from you guys when you couldn’t afford to re-sign him.

The biggest question mark on the roster going into next season would be goalie. I see Joonas Korpisalo as the default starter. For his backup, I’d expect a battle between some veteran free agent signing, and Latvian prospect Elvis Merzlikins.

For the team to compete going forward, it will depend what happens in the rest of the division. Washington and Pittsburgh may start to decline, but the Islanders look to be strong now and Carolina is on the rise.

 

 

 

Game #59 Preview Suite

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Spotlight

Q&A

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I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Game #7 – Hawks vs. Blue Jackets Preview – Turn On The Water

By Matt McClure 1789 0

 @  

Game Time: 6:00PM CDT
TV/Radio: NBC Sports Chicago, NHLN US, TVA-S, WGN-AM 720
Street Fight Radio: The Cannon

After basically the entire work week off in an unofficial early season bye, the Hawks venture to Ohio for the second and only road game of another thee-in-four-nights stretch that sees them facing down a Columbus team that still isn’t quite sure what the hell it actually is at this point.

At 4-2-0 to this point in the seaoson, the Jackets are at least making a fist of it while unholy terror Seth Jones remains absent from the blue line. To this point, they’ve beaten Detroit, Florida, Philadelphia, and Colorado, with only the latter of which actually playing well to start the season, as their other three victories have been over teams that are presently total messes. Their losses came to a speedy and spiky Hurricanes team, and the Bolts who dropped an 8-burger on them. So for right now, it’s fair to call them the middling team that they are with Jones out.

That’s not to say they’re bereft of any kind of punch. Erstwhile Style Boy Artemi Panarin has put up 9 points in 6 games so far to pace the Jackets, and is in full on “Fuck you, pay me” mode with his bridge deal coming to a close at the end of this year and lacking the mega-paper he’s seeking, which the Jackets seem slightly hesitant to give him. He flanks former first rounder P-L Dubois with Cam Atkinson on the other side, and this line has shown plenty of speed and creativity in the early going. The Jackets’ middle six has been getting plowed over on the possession ledger however, with the de facto second line of Duclair (remember him?), Wennberg, and SANDPAPER Captain Nick Foligno and the third line of Boone Jenner, Riley “Not A Purported Wiener Tucker” Nash, and Josh Anderson contributing intermittent offense, but certainly not enough to balance out the top line and force opposing coaches to pause when trying to get matchups. The fourth line of Sonny Milano (OHHHH!), Lukas Sedlak, and Dane Oliver Bjorkstrand has at least tilted the ice to spell the other three units.

With Jones out on the blue line, Zach Werenski has been partnered with David Savard, and they’ve been getting their skulls kicked it at a 41% clip, and if Werenski isn’t pushing the play on offense, he’s not a world beater in his own end, particularly when he is basically covering for Quebecois Wisniewski as a partner. Markus Nutivaara, a seventh round pick and a 24 year old and not a Finnish candy bar, however, has been the beneficiary of the top line taking a pounding, and flipped the ice at 60% clip with the will-he-ever-get-his-shit-together Ryan Murray. Adam Clendening (remember him too?) has landed here because he’s a right handed defenseman with the vague threat of offense in his game, and he and Scott Harrington have been turned into paste in the 20 even strength minutes they’ve played together on the third pairing.

Long the strength of this team, two time Vezina winner Sergei Bobrovsky has had a slow start to the season, with only an .888 at evens and an .875 overall. Clearly those are not up to his high standards of play, and if that continues, that type of goaltending will torpedo just about any team, let alone one that’s been as reliant as the Jackets have been on Bob. But for as much as he’s slumped, he’s still fully capable of power-windmill breakdancing in the crease all night long on any opponent, as Bobrovsky remains one of the best combinations of size, athleticism, and positional soundness in the sport.

As for the Men Of Four Feathers, while their first regulation loss was probably overdue, they certainly didn’t play terribly against the Yotes on Thursday, or at least the names that are supposed to matter didn’t. The ones everyone expects to be terrible gift wrapped all three goals for Glendale, and Corey Crawford’s return to the cage didn’t have the storybook finish that was hoped for despite looking as solid as can be asked of a goalie after having not played in over 300 days. He’ll get the nod again tonight with a sterner test, particularly from the top line with Panarin’s ability to pick corners as a “bad shot maker”. In front of Crawford will be the same defensive configuration as the past few games, which means it’s duck and cover time with Manning and Rutta on the ice, particularly unsheltered on the road.

Among the forwards, because the Hawks actually lost, Quenneville predictably used it as an excuse to do what he’s presumably been dying to do since the start of camp, and that’s move Anisimov back to the #2 center slot between Schmaltz and Garbage Dick. Schmaltz has been scuffling a little bit, but having Alexandre “2009 Troy Brouwer Redux” Fortin continually biff chances tilts the scoring sheet a little bit, and Wide Dick Artie isn’t the best answer to sparking Schmaltz long term. Fortin was platooning with Martinsen at last report this morning, which results in the splitting up of the speedy Saad-Kruger-Kampf line that could use some more time in a true shutdown role to see if it really could end up being a thing. Instead, Chris Kunitz will play with Saad and Kampf, and Kruger will get some combination from the Fortin/Hayden/Martinsen turd grab bag.

While John Tortorella is assuredly A Moron, he’s not so entrenched that he doesn’t know that at home he’ll have some advantageous matchups that can be found for his top line. The key will be to minimize that damage and hope that Crawford makes some of the saves that Cam Ward wasn’t or couldn’t make, and that at the other end each save that Bobrovsky makes isn’t the one that snaps him out of the funk he’s in. Let’s go Hawks.

 

Game #7 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Game #7 – Hawks vs. Blue Jackets Spotlight: Jarmo’s Crucible

By Sam Fels 1590 0

It’s hard to think of a GM more in a jam than Jarmo Kekalainen. Sure, we’ve seen GMs and teams play chicken with a free agent to be in the past. But two? And the two best players on a team? That’s rare indeed. And the fortunes of the Blue Jackets for the next few years pretty much hang in the balance.

To review: both Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky are going to be unrestricted free agents when this season ends. Panarin has made it quite clear that he’s not coming back, as it seems his destiny to be an overpaid Ranger or Panther. Bobrovsky has at least talked to the Jackets about an extension, but those talks have gone nowhere.

We’ll take the case of Bobrovsky first. He’a two-time Vezina winner, and no goalie with that kind of track record has hit the open market in recent memory. As of right now, the highest paid goalie in the league is Carey Price at $10.5 million. Price only has one Vezina, and has only done slightly better than Bobrovsky in the playoffs. Price has appeared in one conference final, never a Stanley Cup Final, and the Habs have basically been early-round chum for anyone they’ve run across. Bobrovsky’s agent could look at that $10.5 figure and go from there, and we mean go up.

Complicating matters even more for the Jackets is while they will gain the space of Panarin’s $6 million salary on the cap, they also have to pay Zach Werenski and Ryan Murray. That’s certainly going to be more than $6 million. The Jackets only have $5 million in space now as it is. It’s hard to identify what they can jettison to create more space. Nick Foligno? He’s the captain. Cam Atkinson might be the only top line forward they have after Panarin’s saunter to the door.

Which makes you wonder if they can afford to lose Bobrovsky at all. Goalies are almost certainly criminally underpaid considering their worth, and the Jackets offense may need some serious propping up once Panarin has bid adieu.

The other problem is that Bobrovsky’s appearances in the playoffs haven’t exactly been gleaming. The Jackets have never seen the second round. Bob’s playoff record in Columbus is a .898 SV% and 3.37 GAA. Now, to be sure, in two of those series the Jackets were far overmatched by the Penguins. You could argue they were by the Capitals last year, but they took the first two games in DC. And then Bob spent the next four games chucking up a toad. But a goalie is a playoff dog until he isn’t, and then what?

You don’t find another Bobrovsky on the market or in the system. And you don’t go anywhere without a goalie. Yes, he’s 30, but the aging curve for goalies is longer than skaters. He’s probably got four or five good years left. If this is the Jackets’ window, aren’t you closing it by losing him?

Panarin’s case is different. He’s gone. There’s almost no indication he’ll ever consider staying in Ohio. So logic would dictate that you ship him out for what you can get at the deadline. But it’s not that simple. The Jackets aren’t rebuilding, and you never see player-for-player deals at the deadline. They’re at least quite rare. Things will change, but there are contending teams who could use a dynamic scoring winger. Maybe more will develop. But what do those teams have to give up off the roster? The Jackets are set at top pairing with Werenski and Seth Jones. They like Nutivaara and Ryan Murray beyond that. Could they find another goalie in return for Panarin? Nearly impossible you’d think.

Overriding both of these is that the Jackets have to win, and soon. This is a fanbase aching for success, and if it sees its two most accomplished players blast noogies for nothing and without so much as a playoff series win, you’d have a tough time convincing all of them the Jackets can build a long-term winner.

It may come down to how likely  Jarmo thinks it is for  the Jackets to get out of the division. The Penguins could be had if Matt Murray never finds the form of his first two years. The Capitals have gotten a touch older and are still the squad that needed just about everything to go right last spring. The Rangers and Islanders aren’t a concern. The Devils and Flyers really could be anything. The Metro is open.

Maybe you take your run at a conference final and reset in the summer. But the Jackets don’t have a ton of cap space to do so.

We don’t have any answers. Jarmo might not either.

 

Game #7 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Game #7 – Hawks vs. Blue Jackets Douchebag Du Jour: Nick Foligno Isn’t What You Need

By Sam Fels 1391 0

Nick Foligno is a fine player. That’s just about it. He’s deified in Columbus as he’s the captain of the team. He had one great season of 31 goals and 73 points, conveniently signed an lucrative extension for $5.7M a year during that season, and hasn’t come close to those numbers since. Strange how that happens. But it happens a lot, and it’s not Foligno’s fault that the Blue Jackets thought he’d shoot 17% the rest of his career. Get it when you can, while you can, as Dennis Hope told us.

Foligno is that rugged winger that teams love to make captains, and it’s all the better if they’re the son of an NHL-er. If you’re the son of an NHL player you basically have to shit your pants for a month straight before the league gives up on you. If Brady Tkachuk’s last name was anything else he’s probably a third-round pick. That’s just how these things go.

The problem with Foligno, and it doesn’t really have anything to do with him personally, is that when Artemi Panarin toddles off to whatever East Coast port throws an oil tanker of money at him, there will be a rush from Columbus front office types and media to declare that Panarin isn’t the type you win with, Foligno is.

On paper, that’s not totally incorrect. No team with Panarin on it has won a playoff series. Panarin himself has floated between dominating playoff games and not even appearing to be in the building. You could make that argument and it would be hard to disprove.

But…the Jackets haven’t won a series with Foligno either. And for a long while he was taking up a top-line winger role that he couldn’t live up to but was expected to because he did once on a fluke and he puts his face first into things. These types are teflon in the league. If you’re Canadian and run face-first into the boards a lot, everyone in hockey assumes you’re a winner and not just a dumbass.

You’d think teams would get it now, as the last four Cup winners were based off the starring brilliance of Duncan Keith, Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Evgeny Kuznetsov and not on the graft of a bunch of humps grunting and sweating the puck up the ice. It’s getting better, as teams realize that actual skill is the top priority. But there’s still a long way to go.

Foligno’s fine. He should be a passenger and not the driver.

 

Game #7 Preview Suite

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Their Emblems Built of Garbage – ’18–’19 Blackhawks Player Previews – Brandon Saad

By John Pullega 1948 0

No one, and I mean no one, was happier to hear about the Brandon Saad for Artemi Panarin trade last year than me. In fact, I distinctly remember writing something to the effect of “Is there really anyone out there who would rather watch Panarin than Saad on the ice?” in the early stages of the season. Call it a proto-Fels Motherfuck, because the answer to that question was a resounding “Yes, we all would.” And yet, this is the hill I will die a bloody death on, because Brandon Saad, regardless of performance last year, fucks. And this year, he will fuck again.

2017–18 Stats

82 GP – 18 G, 17 A

56.7 CF%, 60.2 oZS%

Avg. TOI 17:30

A Brief History: By pretty much all measures, the Panarin–Tyler Motte (lol) for Saad–Anton Forsberg trade was a loss for the Hawks in 2017–18. Whereas Saad went on to post his lowest point total since his rookie year during the season-in-a-can, Pantera built off his first two outstanding seasons, with 82 points (27 goals) last year away from Patrick Kane.

We went over Saad’s struggles multiple times last year. I wrote a fucking doctoral thesis on how last year was one of Saad’s best years of his career by all metrics other than points. His even-strength CF% and CF% Rel were both second highest of his career. Only Jonathan Toews had a better CF%, and no one had a better CF% Rel than Saad. Other than Tommy Wingels, no Blackhawk had a larger discrepancy between xGF% (51.62) and GF% (45.1) than Saad. Saad also logged his lowest PDO of his career BY FAR, with a withering 97.5 versus a career average of 100.4. Combined with his far-below-average shooting percentage (7.6% vs. a career 11.8% prior to last year) and the fact that no one he played with regularly scored, there were plenty of people ready to declare Brandon Saad dead.

Fuck that.

Brandon Saad isn’t far from being the Hossa Lite we all expect and need him to be. It really is as simple as him having a bit more luck on his shooting. It never looked like Saad had lost a step or was dogging it out there. Outside of maybe lowered confidence from shooting a full 4% lower than his career average, Saad looked just as good as he always did, and all the numbers—besides points—show that. If Saad had shot at just his career average, he’d have had 28 goals on the season, which would have been second most of his career.

But no one wants to listen to the notes he’s not playing. Fortunately, we won’t have to this year.

It Was the Best of Times: This is easy. Saad is going to be just 26 this year, and I don’t think we’ve even seen his final form yet. Playing on a line with Schmaltz and Kane, Saad takes every “trade Saad” proclamation ever uttered personally and tosses a 15% shooting percentage on 240 shots, good for 36 goals. He also contributes 55 assists, turning himself into the 90-point monster some people thought he might have been last year. He continues to be a possession behemoth, which makes Schmaltz and Kane even more dangerous than they were last year. He single-handedly keeps that line well above water on the possession ledger and even contributes on the second PP unit.

It Was the BLURST of Times: The worst thing that can happen to Saad is an extended injury, something that keeps him out for weeks like our woebegone Irish Son Connor Murphy. Unless he’s hurt, last year is probably as bad as it gets for Saad. It’s still possible, yet highly unlikely, that he’s now an 8% shooter, but there’s absolutely nothing to suggest that last year’s piss fest was anything other than an outlier. It’s also unlikely that he’ll be traded—which was one of our fears this summer—and after StanBo told Tom “Team Grit” Dundon that a Faulk-for-Saad trade was a non-starter, I don’t think there’ll be much worry about losing our Syrian Savior to trade anytime soon.

Prediction: I’m going all in on Saad this year. 30 goals, 40 assists, leads the team in CF% Rel. Helps Kane get to 95 points, helps Schmaltz break 50 for the first time. Is a complete nightmare for opponents on the PK. Chips in a few goals in the second PP unit (which, if you’re scoring at home, will be comprised of Gustafsson, Ejdsell, and Saad by my count. Throw in Schmaltz and Wide Dick, and there’s what I think the second-unit PP should be).

Everything else might go wrong for the Hawks this year. But Brandon Saad will not be one of them. Like a phoenix rising from Arizona, Brandon Saad will show us all why trading Panarin for him wasn’t for naught.

Previous Player Previews

Corey Crawford

Cam Ward

Duncan Keith

Connor Murphy

Brent Seabrook

Brandon Manning

Jan Rutta

Erik Gustafsson

Henri Jokiharju

Nick Schmaltz

Alex DeBrincat

Chris Kunitz

Artem Anisimov

Marcus Kruger

Victor Ejdsell

Jonathan Toews

Everything Else

You Share The Same Fate As The People You Hate – ’18-’19 Team Previews: Columbus Blue Jackets

By Matt McClure 1945 0

It remains a mystery what purpose exactly the Columbus Blue Jackets serve in the league, though now their ineptitude proved to be a catalyst in propelling the perennially underachieving Washington Capitals to their first ever Stanley Cup victory after going up two games to none in Washington and proceeding to lose four straight in the first round. It takes a special kind of pants shitting to have made these Caps look like the killers they always should have been, and based on their relative stasis in the off season, that trend appears to primed to continue.

’17-’18: 45W-30L-7OT 97PTS 242GF 230GA 17.2%PP 76.2%PK 51.49%CF 7.44%SH .9283%SV

Goaltending: There is little doubt that Sergei Bobrovsky is the pillar of anything the Jackets hope to accomplish and has been since he came over from the perpetually goaltending challenged Flyers for a 2nd round pick, having won two Vezina Trophies and four all star games while the Flyers still have a handful of themselves in the crease. Bob’s numbers took a slight step back from his 16-17 Vezina campaign, dropping 10 points overall from .931 to ONLY .921, while still being unimpeachable at evens with a .935 from a .938 the year prior. The big drop was in his shorthanded save percentage, dropping 60 points from .892 to a far more pedestrian .831, by far his lowest in Columbus. But all things being equal, there’s no reason to expect much deviation from Bob this year provided he stays healthy, which he has the past two years, playing 128 of 164 total games. In an ideal world, a true #1 goalie should play somewhere in the neighborhood of 55 games a year to avoid overworking, as Bobrovsky’s numbers in April have a precipitous dropoff. In the series against the Caps he sported only a .900 even over those 6 games, which is actually well ABOVE his post season average of .891, and that simply will not cut it, particularly behind a team that isn’t particularly dynamic offensively or behind the bench. Joonas Korpisalo is slated to back up Bobrovsky once again, and his .897 in 17 starts last year is certainly less than inspiring. If he can’t provide even replacement-backup-level netminding, Bobrovsky’s workload will stay at what it’s been and the Jackets will once again meet a similar fate unless some outside help is brought in.

Defense: Seth Jones is an absolute monster, and the time his nigh for his ascension into the Norris conversation annually. Jones will ONLY be 24 at the beginning of next month, and last season put up 16 goals, 41 assists, and a 54.1% possession share all while facing the toughest competition and zone starts available to him. He had 7 goals and 17 assists on the Jackets’ power play, which had greatly declined from the year previous. There is nothing he cannot do from the back end, plain and simple. Likewise, while not as defensively stout, Zach Werenski is a play-driving machine from the Jackets’ blue line, and though his scoring numbers were down from his fantastic rookie season, that was more of a function of power play production, where his assist totals dropped, and that can end up being circumstatial. Werenski put more shots on net and shot a higher percentage than he did from his rookie year, an exceptional 7.7% from the point. The problem is that these two spent 90% of their time together (only 142 of Jones’ 1387 even strength minutes were away from Werenski), and the only times they were split up were seemingly late game defensive zone draws where Werenski couldn’t be trusted to protect a lead. Behind these two is a complete bum squad, with David Savard running out of position, Ryan Murray never making good on his first round pedigree, and some things named Dean Kukan and Markus Nutivaara managing to take up $3.4 mildo of cap space. If Torts were somehow able to split up Werenski and Jones and not a) lose Jones’ offense covering for a dipshit partner, or b) have anyone else capable of playing free safety for Werenski to not give up as much as he produces, they’d have a solid grouping here. But as things currently sit it’s extremely top heavy and can be exploited by any coach with two functioning synapses and last change.

Forwards: Artemi Panarin‘s first season in Columbus went better than this outlet certainly expected, with him going a point per game (27G, 55A) despite not having a top end playmaker to get him the puck. But Panarin plays some of the most sheltered minutes in the league, almost exclusively starting in the offensive zone, and that can handicap a coach without having the center depth to get granular with who takes what faceoffs where. That’s not to say that Alex Wennberg and P-L Dubois are bad players, they aren’t, but they certainly aren’t going to maximize what a bad shot maker like Panarin can do, at least not yet. And Panarin is now in a walk year with his 2 year bridge deal at $6 million per coming to term, and the fact that he doesn’t have an extension yet doesn’t speak highly of his chances of remaining in Columbus. Panarin will likely command around $10 million a year, and with Jarmo wrapping up $11.3 mildo in Nick Foligno and Brandon Dubinsky for the next three years, it doesn’t speak highly to sound asset management. Cam Atkinson is a consistent 25-30 goal scorer in his own right, and he’s locked in at $5.875 per year, but he’ll also be 35 when his paper is up. This is a grouping still not sure of what it wants to be despite having some fairly useful parts.

Outlook:  Because John Tortorella is a goddamn cave man with regard to his coaching philosophy and techniques in 2018, it will always handicap his team slightly, but in his defense he’s working with a roster that doesn’t have a consistent thesis statement defining its construction. This team has top end talent in a few spots, but it’s not necessarily complimentary to the other constituent parts of the roster. As a result, a wild card bid and a first round out is once again about what to expect out of this team, and if they flounder out of the gate or Bobrovsky gets hurt early, the trade market for Panarin could heat up in a hurry and offer them a chance to re-think this grouping, though Jarmo as a GM hasn’t shown much consistency in being able to properly augment his team either. The Jackets are in Hockey Hell and there’s no clear path at the moment to escape it.

 

Previous Team Previews

Detroit Red Wings

Buffalo Sabres

Boston Bruins

Florida Panthers

Montreal Canadiens

Ottawa Senators

Tampa Bay Lightning

Toronto Maple Leafs

Carolina Hurricanes

Everything Else

Well Pilgrim, Not Until You Eat The Peanuts Outta My… – FFUD’s ’17-’18 Player Reviews – Brandon Saad or Sometimes the Bear Eats You

By John Pullega 2358 0

Brandon Saad’s year was an extended cut of Lisa explaining why the electric violinist was better than she seemed. You had to look at the stats Saad WASN’T underwhelming at to appreciate his year. But when the whole point of bringing the guy back was to give Toews more support and even shoot for a 30-goal season, it makes the My Chemical Romance-ian angst over losing Panarin for him more understandable (even though it’s misplaced).

Brandon Saad

82 GP, 18 Goals, 17 Assists, 35 Points, -10, 14 PIM

56.7 CF% (Evens), 5.7 CF% Rel (Evens), 54.93 SCF% (5v5), 52.15 xGF% (5v5), 3.63 xGF% Rel (5v5)

 60.2% oZ Start (Evens)

What We Said: While I can see a 30-30-60 year from him, expecting 70–80 points might be asking a bit much . . . Having him out with Toews could bring about a renaissance for The Captain . . . His all-around game is a welcome aspect for a team that lost one of the greatest back-checkers of all time, and should help re-establish the Hawks as a strong possession team.

What We Got: Saad had a year of unexpected firsts. It was the first time that he finished with a negative goal differential. It was the first time he finished with a shooting percentage under 10%. It was the first time he finished the year with fewer points than the last. By their powers combined, these aspects turned what was supposed to be the rekindling of our love affair with Hossa Jr. into a season of grumbling and disappointment. And as painful as it is to admit, by the metrics that matter most—namely, goals and points—this was a massively disappointing year for Saad.

We can go on about how Saad had his best possession year since 2013–14 (in which he had a 58.5 CF% in 78 games). We can talk about how Saad’s CF% Rel this year was his best ever in a Hawks sweater (trailing only last year’s 6.4 in Columbus). And you know I want to tell you how all of his problems were anomalous, the result of a precipitous and unforeseen drop in his shooting percentage. (If he had shot at his 11.8 S% average he had prior to this year, he would have had 28 goals this year.)

But with Saad coming off three consecutive 50+ point seasons, that all looks like a bunch of excuses for a poor performance or a stubborn justification for trading Panarin, even though it isn’t. All those numbers bolster the “Saad is still a great player” argument, but they don’t explain why his shooting percentage was down so much.

If you go back and watch some of Saad’s scoring opportunities, you’ll notice that there seems to be about a half-second delay between when you’d expect him to shoot and when he actually took his shot. I don’t know whether this hesitation is a matter of confidence, timing, or simply losing a little bit off his fastball, but it was more noticeable this year than ever before. Rather than puckering your sphincter for what you’d assume would be a scorching one-timer, most times Saad had a good scoring chance, you’d find your shoulders slouchier than usual and your gut hanging over your jeans just a little bit more woefully, knowing that if he didn’t launch the puck straight into the goaltender’s chest, it was going to go a little too high or a little too wide.

Not knowing why is the hardest thing to process. As unfulfilling as it is to read what amounts to a shoulder shrug and a “what can you do,” it looks more like a season-long malaise than some underlying problem, given Saad’s body of work over the last five years. Everything else looked as good or better than expected, except, ironically, for his play with Toews.

While the Saad–Toews tandem was by no means bad, bringing Saad back didn’t have the effect we had hoped. In the 750 minutes they played together at 5v5, they were a possession monster, with a 57+ CF% and a 52+ High-Danger Chances For Percentage (HDCF%).

But they also got pummeled in High-Danger Goals For Percentage (HDGF%), to the tune of 42+. Away from Saad, Toews sported a throbbing 61+ HDGF%. Away from Toews, Saad had a flaccid 38.89 HDGF%.

Additionally, both Saad and Toews had better—albeit below their average—on-ice shooting percentages away from each other: Together, they had a 6.41%; Saad without Toews had a 7.39% (7.6% individual on the year); and Toews without Saad had an 8.62% (9.5% individual on the year).

All of this is to say what we’ve been saying all year: The chances were there for Saad, and they just didn’t go in. Unless you buy the idea that Saad peaked at 24 (and if you do, go back to work, Peter Chiarelli), there’s no explanation for it other than sometimes the bear just eats you.

Where We Go From Here: Saad was an offensive disappointment, but he did everything else as good or better than before. And if Crawford stays healthy, maybe we’re sitting here talking about how Saad overcame his scoring demons in the playoffs and laughing about how stupid hockey can be. Instead, after an underwhelming year from both the team and the man, we’re subject to asinine chatter about trading Brandon Saad (for what, who knows?). Anyone who tries to sell you that tripe is probably a good candidate for the ol’ Moe Szyslak fork in the eye, given Saad’s career trajectory to this point.

Saad will be 26 next year, right in his prime. He’s still a possession dynamo with outrageous transition speed for a skater his size. And if he produced at just his career rates, he would have had the best offensive season of his career this year. Saad is still young, still important, and still capable of being everything we hoped he would. He just seemed a little hesitant this year. It could just be that Saad–Toews needs a finisher—whether that’s Kane, DeBrincat, or potentially Vinnie—to complete that line. And I can hear the “DAT SOUNDS LIKE ARTEMI PANARIN IF YOU ASK ME” snark a mile away, but when it comes down to it, I’ll take a younger, more well-rounded Saad at $6 million than an $8–10 million sniper like Panarin, if I have to choose one.

Still, Saad will need to prove, for the first time in his career, that this year was a blip for his offensive output. Bowman said he was good for it, and it’s down there somewhere. Let’s let him take another look.