Everything Else

You know us. We do this every so often. One day, we’re going to get our hockey equivalent of Felix Hernandez’s Cy Young, when he won just 13 games. It was a triumph for the analytic set, a true breaking down of the walls to look at process and not just results.

It may be a long time before we get that with hockey. It may never happen. The Norris Trophy may always be the guy who gets the most points from the blue line combined with an already sterling reputation, deserved or not. Or whoever Eddie Olczyk says should win it. Or both. Or maybe it’ll always be Erik Karlsson, and that’s ok. He’s a sweet boy. He should have more than he does.

John Klingberg seems to have the inside track this year, leading all d-men in scoring for a resurgent Dallas team. Karlsson will probably be a finalist. Kings fans are wetting themselves to get scumbag Doughty another one, perhaps in the hopes their efforts will keep him there when he becomes a free agent in 2019. Not likely. Brent Burns and PK Subban are leading their teams in scoring, which is always a big feather.

Hampus Lindholm will never score enough to get noticed by voters. Playing in Anaheim certainly doesn’t help, as no writer can stay up past 10:30 apparently. But perhaps one day, when they look past points, he will get a chance. Or he’ll have to binge one year. But let’s make the case.

Here’s the evidence: Hampus has the best relative-corsi of any d-man in the league playing over 200 minutes at even-strength this year. Better than both Dougie Hamilton and Mark Giordano, who get to play together. He has the second-best relative expected goals percentage, behind something called Tim Heed on the Sharks. He’s 10th among all d-men in attempts against per 60. Quite simply, no team improves as much with one player on the ice against when he’s not then the Ducks do when Hampus is out there.

Moreover, whereas Giordano and Hamilton get to play with each other, Hampus has played with Josh Manson, who isn’t a slob but isn’t Dougie or Giordano either. Whereas Klingberg has seen most of his passes go to Seguin, Benn, and Radulov, Hampus plays behind mostly Jakob Silfverberg and Andrew Cogliano. Not exactly breathtaking scorers, though solid wingers in their own right.

It’s a pretty solid case, though one that won’t see Hampus anywhere near Vegas when the baubles are handed out. What we can say that at $5 million per for the next six years, Hampus is just about the biggest bargain you can find on any blue line. He’ll have to live with that if he doesn’t get any silverware.

 

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Jen Neale is formerly of Yahoo’s Puck Daddy blog, and now works in Esports but still follows the Ducks religiously. And quite frankly, we don’t need more than one Ducks fan in our lives. 

The Ducks have had their injury problems, but are kind of floating in the netherworld below the playoffs and all the metrics suggest that’s about right. Is this where this team should be?

Yes, I would say so. John Gibson is epically average – as I’ve insisted for years. Randy Carlyle is who we thought he was, Mr. Dump ‘n Chase. Kesler is playing at 60% after offseason hip surgery. The Ducks are lucky the rest of the Pacific (sans Vegas) is a dumpster fire or they’d be worse off.

 

Rickard Rakell is having another big season, though accumulating a fair amount on the power play. Is he or will he be a premier even-strength scorer?

The kid is magical. It depends on if he can stay healthy and who he plays with. Keep him with Getzlaf and he probably starts getting more even strength goals. Lord knows Getzlaf won’t shoot and Perry couldn’t put a beach ball in the net.

Corey Perry has 11 goals so far after 19 last year. Is he D-O-N-E?
 He certainly appears to have stopped stealing souls or drinking the blood of sacrificed animals in order to gain his talent. He’s still doing Corey Perry things on the ice, but the scoring isn’t there. I don’t think he’s done-done, but he’s not scoring 25 goals anymore. Dude doesn’t even play in OT because he’s too slow. When Getzlaf is out-skating you, you got a problem. 
On the flip side, we’ve been trying to make a Norris case for Hampus Lindholm even if he doesn’t have the points. That good?
So, so good. He embodies what the Norris Trophy should be rewarded for. The sad part is he plays out West and won’t score a ton of points so he won’t get the attention he deserves. His shot is getting better so maybe one day he’ll get a Norris (for points).
Where is this Ducks team headed in the next couple years?
 Hear that creaking sound? That’s the window closing. Getzlaf, Perry and Kesler are signed until the end of time, and they’re clearly on the downside of their careers. Around them are a lot of young, but good parts. If Patrick Eaves never plays again, I’d hope the Ducks could keep Adam Henrique with that money. He’s been a revelation.
 I’m mostly concerned with what Bob Murray does when Gibson’s contract is up after next season. He’ll be an RFA and Murray looooooves him. I don’t want the Ducks money tied up in an average goalie for a long time. They’ve already done they with three forwards. It’s only going to make future success by the team damn near impossible. (I still miss Freddie Anderson.)

 

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All it takes is one Cup. Even if that season you got to toss Scott Niedermayer and Chris Pronger over the boards for 45 minutes of every 60. That’s how Randy Carlyle has managed to duck the reputation of a moron, even though we all saw him fail to make toast in Toronto.

When the Ducks originally fired Carlyle, it was because he took that Cup-winning roster and managed to win just one more playoff round in the next four seasons, getting fired in the fifth. His hard-ass ways had turned off Perry and Getzlaf, and the affable Bruce Boudreau was seen as the necessary gear change.

So it’s hilariously short-sighted, or unoriginal, that when it came time to replace Boudreau the only name GM Bob Murray thought of, “The guy we fired for this guy.” It’s so hockey. What other sport has retreads like this since the Yankees did it with Billy Martin?

Carlyle and his supporters, basically Pierre McGuire, would point to last year’s conference final appearance as proof it was the right move. Except they needed an utter miracle to not lose to the heavily flawed Edmonton Oilers in the second round after getting a sweetheart draw by playing the dogshit Flames in the first. Getting to be in a weak division saved him. It probably won’t this year.

Carlyle would point to the amount of injuries the Ducks have suffered, but that doesn’t make up for the Ducks not having an area you can say they do well. They’re a bad possession team, bad defensively, and only have John Gibson to thank for not being marooned at the bottom. Carlyle has watched Cory Perry turn to silly putty of course, and Getzlaf hasn’t really cared beyond assists from the outside in like four years.

Still, with Fowler, Lindholm Manson, and Montour, this team could get up and go if he were so inclined. Instead Kevin “Guess What I Just Swallowed?” Bieksa is on the second pairing. They still worry about “getting on the body.”

But whatever, Anaheim sucking along with the Hawks is just fine with us.

 

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There aren’t going to be many tears shed outside of Anaheim if Corey Perry is indeed on his decline. At the age of 32, he certainly is at the back of his peak at best. Perry’s on-ice habits, politely described as “ludicrously assholic,” combined with regularly scoring tons of goals haven’t won him many friends who don’t support the….well, whatever the fuck colors the Ducks claim to be other than black. Whatever they are, they look like shit-assed Running Man outfits. So there will be a large crowd waiting to have a good, soul-defining chuckle if Perry is going to be something of an anchor heading out from here. And given his mobility these days, anchors might take that personally.

Perry has only four goals this season, putting him on pace for 16 for the year. This follows a season in which Perry notched just 19 goals, the first time he didn’t mange 20 in ten seasons. Much as the Hawks saw with Marian Hossa for a few years, there’s been a decline in Perry’s shooting-percentage. The path has been 17.1%, 15.8%, 8.8%, and this year’s 8.2%. Of course, there is plenty of time for that to rebound this season, but the pattern is clear.

What has some eyebrows being raised in Orange County, at least the ones that aren’t drawn in and for those who are still able to actually manipulate the muscles in their face, is that Perry isn’t getting anywhere near the attempts he’s used to. He’s only managing 11.4 attempts per 60 minutes, which is down from 14.7 last year and the fifth consecutive season that number had dropped.

All of that adds up to Perry not getting the quality of chances as often as what made him one of the league’s most dangerous snipers. He’s individual expected goals per 60 is 0.5, a career-low by some margin. As you might imagine, Perry’s possession numbers have gone into the toilet along with his scoring metrics. Then again, everything is in the toilet with Perry as that’s his “special place.”

Clearly, Perry has struggled without Ryan Getzlaf, only totaling 60 minutes together so far this season. As we all know, living without your soulmate is tough,  even if the higher connection is between two demented lizards like these two. With Getzlaf so far this season Perry’s possession numbers are almost break-even, which on this current iteration of the Ducks would be pretty high, as the Ducks can’t find their dicks with both hands at the moment. Perry is probably trying to heal Getzlaf’s broken face with his own hands, coming up with whatever eye-of-newt stew he has in the cauldron in the basement of the abandoned construction site he assuredly lives in.

Being 32 doesn’t mean it’s over, of course. Jarome Iginla, whose style Perry’s closely resembles in some ways, had three 30+ goal-seasons after the age of 32. Hossa managed a 30-goal season, a 29-goal one, and 26 last year after the age of 32. But what does appear to be clear is that Perry is going to need a playmaker of Getzlaf’s level to open him up, as he doesn’t quite get to the spots in the same way that he used to.

Perry is signed for three more years after this one, at a hit of $8.6 per season. Even if the Ducks hit the button on a rebuild after this season, no one’s going to rush to take that number unless Perry proves he’s going to have a revival in the sunset. The Ducks only have 10 skaters signed beyond this season, and Silfverberg is UFA after next season. There are going to be some hard decisions coming for GM Bob Murray.

Still, if the Ducks were to eat a portion of Perry’s salary and were determined to start over, Perry can probably still provide second-line scoring for three or four more years. That might be valuable enough to get someone to bite. But the Ducks aren’t there yet. They just might get there sooner than they thought.

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Our friend Jen has been our Ducks outlet for more years than she’d probably like to remember. She’s a former contributor to Puck Daddy as well, but is much more pleasant than Wyshynsky. You can follow her on Twitter @MsJenNeale.

Everything Else

Longtime guys on this blog will know that there really isn’t a team I hate more than the Anaheim Ducks. Their team is chockfull of shit gibbons and deutsche banks and it’s being watched by a bunch of buzzards and mouth-breathing giblets in the stands. And the whole area really could go away and I doubt anyone would miss it. It’s the most hellish suburbia one can imagine, and if you actually met a Lucille Bluth in real life you’d firebomb her house within seven minutes. I’ve met a real life Gob Bluth in Orange County, because everyone there is one, and believe me it wasn’t funny.

So you know I’d love to sit here and spend 800-10000 words telling you how much the Anaheim Ducks will suck. Sadly, I’m not going to be able to do that. Let’s get through this together.

Anaheim Ducks

’16-’17 Record: 46-23-13  105 points (1st in Pacific, lost to NSH in conference final)

Team Stats 5v5: 49.6 CF% (19th)  50.5 SF% (13th)  50.9 SCF% (11th)  7.7 SH% (15th)  .930 SV% (5th)

Special Teams: 18.7 PP% (17th)  84.7 PK% (4th)

 

Everything Else

Man, am I fucking sick of writing posts like this. But the NHL, it’s rock-stupid/ignorant players, the league’s insistence on pretty much letting them be that, and the supposed-watchdog organization riding shotgun seem pretty fucking insistent that I and many others have to keep doing so.

To recap the news, though you probably know it already, Ryan Getzlaf got caught calling someone a “cocksucker,” a homophobic slur whether you like it or not, the NHL fined him the change he found between his couch cushions, he came out after Game 5 and delivered the most insincere, backhanded apology one could muster, one so lacking in any emotion or regret even Jay Cutler thought it was patronizing, and You Can Play released a statement that was so soft and passionless it’s a wonder the paper it was printing on didn’t actually piss down its leg. So a good weekend for all around.

Everything Else

The Senators took a 1-0 lead over what looked to be a very tired Penguins team, and one that was already beat up, and all anyone could talk about was how boring the Senators are. Apparently most everyone hadn’t watched the Sens all year or in the first two rounds, and I can’t really blame you if you didn’t because the Bruins and Rangers hardly  move the interest needle either. This is what Guy Boucher does. Maybe you didn’t pay attention to what he did in Tampa, and again I don’t blame you if you didn’t because it really wasn’t worth your time.

But Guy Boucher, and the Senators as a whole, don’t owe you anything.

Everything Else

We’re in the business end now. The part where all four teams can have legitimate fantasies about parades in a month’s time. They’re halfway there, much like Mark Lanegan, and now all they need to do is repeat what they’ve already done. Let’s run it through.

 

Nashville v. Anaheim (Game One Tonight)

I really have no idea what to make of the Ducks at all. They swept a team that had the next best blue line to Nashville’s in Calgary, though a lot of that was due to Calgary’s own idiocy. In the underlying numbers, the Flames pretty much kicked the Ducks from pillar to post but watched their goaltending and discipline fail them.

On the surface then, it really shouldn’t have been all that hard against the Oilers, who has no blue line to speak of and even that was decimated in the last two games with Sekera not playing either and Klefbom missing one. And yet that took to a Game 7, and really would have been over sooner had the Ducks not thrown the biggest hail mary we’ve seen in a long time and Talbot finally succumbing to the workload he’d been given all season. Oh, and a little goalie interference didn’t hurt either.

Everything Else

I guess it says a lot about me that I’ve always enjoyed writing about the failures of teams more than the successes. Well, “enjoyed” isn’t the right word. But the writing is better. It’s a more interesting study. There’s more layers to it, and looking forward from rubble is more interesting than just gushing about triumph. That doesn’t mean I don’t want the triumph from time to time, because otherwise I’m going to set myself on fire on the Michigan Avenue Bridge. Whether it’s the Hawks or elsewhere though, there’s just more to talk about when things go wrong for a team.

All series, I had sat here and really wondered what the Capitals would conclude if they continued to dominate this series but lost anyway. Would the panic of yet another loss, the aging of Ovechkin, the impending cap situation, and whatever other factors cause them to act rashly this summer? Or would they hold the line? Now we’ll find out.
However, it didn’t quite go that way, did it?