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Game #54 – Stars vs. Hawks Q&A: Taylor Baird of DefendingBigD.com

By Sam Fels 1989 0

Taylor is the editor-in-chief of DefendingBigD.com. Follow her @TaylorBaird.

Last time we saw the Stars, they were in the muddle of the last playoff spot along with the Hawks. They’ve since separated themselves into the first wild card spot and are hot on the heels of the Blues for the third spot in the Central. What’s been the change?

The Stars defense continues to improve. They’ve climbed from somewhere in the 20’s in the league in terms of goals against average to 5th in the league, allowing only 2.56 goals against on average per game. It’s been improvement in both even strength defense and penalty killing (where they rank 9th in the league today at 82.2% of penalties killed.) The goaltending has been fantastic of late, with Kari Lehtonen having a renaissance in terms of stats (.919SV% and 2.22 GAA) and Ben Bishop’s performance nothing to sneeze at, either (.919 SV%, 2.44 GAA). The offense has also come on of late, averaging slightly more than three goals per game on average now. It’s a big change from the first roughly 15 games of the season, when the team was struggling in all aspects other than the power play.
Jason Spezza only put up 50 points last year, and is on pace for way less this year. He’s been shuttled between center and wing. Is it just time that’s caught up? Is this a major problem?

The Stars have struggled to figure out Spezza’s role on the team. It’s driven by Radek Faksa emerging as a premier two-way center on the team as well as the offseason signing of Martin Hanzal. Spezza struggled offensively at the beginning of the season, and his ice time suffered because of it. He’s also been paired with wingers that haven’t been known for finishing, and think the game a pace behind Spezza. That’s contributed to his offensive decline. One thing I will say is that Spezza has looked better since being reunited with Mattias Janmark, so there’s still hope that it might turn around for him in the last 20ish games or so. As they say, it’s all about how you roll into the playoffs, right?
There are two players in Brett Ritchie and Julius Honka who don’t have the scoring stats you might want, but have glittering underlying numbers. Are the Stars happy enough with these two just pushing the play?

I think they are happy to a degree, yes. With Ritchie, the coach has come out and even said that he’s struggled mightily this year. That’s why he’s found himself pushed down the lineup or eating some healthy scratches at times, as other players look better and produce. But he’s still getting the chance to play through his struggles for the most part, even if it’s to the chagrin of some fans. As for Honka, it’s tough for fans to see a young player with that much potential get jerked around in terms of playing time, but at the end of the day, the Stars need a defense that works. Honka seems to have taken his healthy scratches in stride, and his games of late have shown he’s listened when the coaching staff has said he’s been too cautious in terms of offense. I feel like he will be tough to fit into the lineup when Marc Methot returns to the lineup healthy, if only because I’m not sure he’s done enough to beat out Stephen Johns for the 6th D spot, and Hitch seems to love him some Greg Pateryn (even if the underlying numbers are just blah with him…)
Is. a 2.44 GAA and .919 SV% what you expected out of Ben Bishop? Is that enough to go where the Stars want?
The last few years, all Dallas would have needed was LEAGUE AVERAGE goaltending to go far. Those numbers are far and away better than what Stars fans have seen in the past 5ish years, so we’ll happily take it.
What will the Stars be looking to do at the deadline?
To be honest, I’m not sure there’s much that the Stars will do at the deadline. I think they like their lineup, and it’s been working for them of late, so it’s possible that they won’t want to overpay for a deadline rental. If they target anyone, I’d bet on a top six right wing to add some depth to the second line in terms of scoring, or someone that adds to the second power play unit to make that player set more lethal. But with the draft coming to Dallas this summer, they likely won’t want to deal too many of their picks — and their pipeline of talent isn’t in a position to deal too many of those (though if they are going to do so, blueline seems to be a position of depth but not necessarily strength, and they have a few forwards that could be of interest to other teams.)

 

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Game #54 – Stars vs. Hawks Douchebag Du Jour: Jim Nill – Your Offseason Champ Every Summer

By Sam Fels 1783 0

The level of our bile for the way the Detroit Red Wings are covered is no secret. It also spreads to those who come from the Red Wings/Ken Holland tree, even though it’s been well-proven by now that Holland is something of a blithering idiot. So because the hockey press has to apply that gloss to someone for fear it would go bad, it goes to Jim Nill. Because he was Holland’s assistant and got lucky in a couple drafts.

Let’s be clear: Nill’s Stars have won one playoff round since he showed up. It’s nine playoff wins in four seasons. And yet every time Nill does something in the summer, there’s a rush to the payphones (we assume the Canadian media still uses payphones) to declare the Stars the big winner of the offseason.

Yes, the Tyler Seguin trade was a good one. Hiring Lindy Ruff was not. Trading for Antti Niemi was not. Trading for Shawn Horcoff was not. Jason Spezza sort of worked out. Ales Hemsky most certainly didn’t. Trading for Stephen Johns was a decent move, even if Patrick Sharp came with because he didn’t give up anything. Signing Johnny Oduya… baddy McBad. Ben Bishop might work out, though it has to be this year.

Moreover, Nill’s drafting record is pretty spotty. Of his picks, only Julius Honka and Valeri Nichushkin have made an impact. The former might sit for Marc Methot (another brilliant move) and Nichushkin in back in Russia. Faksa, Shore, and Ritchie were all picks of his predecessors.

Nill might make up for it this year. Hitchcock has given the Stars some structure and the Central hasn’t been all that impressive. A first-matchup with Winnipeg or St. Louis would be inviting. Nashville less so. But it still screams second round, and then whatever move he makes this summer will once again be crowned “Offseason Champs!” Maybe they can call the Capitals to find out where to get useless banners made.

 

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The Return – Fireside Chat

By Fifth Feather 2539 0

Do you believe in miracles?

No!

Anyways, since you’re here I felt it necessary to add on to a point that Sam made in his post yesterday about Brandon Saad and the scouting department. This was something I’ve been pondering for awhile now. Everyone loves to discuss the roles of Stan Bowman, John McDonough and Joel Quenneville and the (perceived) power struggle between the three. Yours truly, included.

However, when discussing Bowman it’s important to keep in mind who is feeding him the information that he’s using to base his decisions. After all, he and his galaxy brain alone are not watching thousands of hockey games per day, compiling a database of players, their tendencies, strengths and weaknesses, etc.

I’m talking about the scouting department. For the purpose of this exercise, we’ll break it down in three categories with the man in charge for the Blackhawks organization:

  • Amateur (Mark Kelley since 2008)*
  • European (Mats Hallin since 2013)
  • Pro (Ryan Stewart since 2012)*

If I had to rank the returns the Hawks have received from these three departments, it would go European, Amateur and then Pro very well below that.

The returns the Hawks have gotten from Europe are nothing short of miraculous in this decade. From Artemi Panarin to Antti Raanta and even down to Michal Kempny, the Hawks are/or have gotten a ton of value from their European efforts. Hell, David Kampf looks like a piece that could be a part of something down the road. I can’t think of one guy they acquired from Europe who didn’t at least look like a NHL player or would be deemed a mistake signing.

Mark Kelley became VP of amateur scouting in 2015 after being director of amateur scouting since 2008. For the time being, let’s look at his work since his fancier title. You can thank him for the Hawks selecting DeBrincat in 2016. Henri Jokiharju is obviously being penciled into future plans and has put together a terrific campaign in the WHL thus far. Those are the two big names. Then there’s others like Ian Mitchell, Chad Krys, Graham Knott, Matthew Highmore, Nathan Noel, Dennis Gilbert. You get the point. There’s still a lot of TBA in the pile; although Knott we can probably launch to the career AHLer pile but he was the 54th pick in the draft. At the very least, DeBrincat is a grand slam that will be a feather in Kelley’s cap and will get him a ton of leeway as we move forward.

That brings us to the pro scouting department and Ryan Stewart. It’s at this point I may recommend closing your eyes. I started thinking about the Hawks pro scouting department yesterday when I saw Elliotte Friedman mention that the Hawks may consider moving Saad (again) to clear cap space. Then when Sam brought up how his scoring droughts in Columbus should have been noticed by the pro scouting department, I knew it was time for a deeper dive.

Since Ryan Stewart took over pro scouting, here is a glimpse at some of the names the Hawks have acquired with pro experience. I’m warning you, cover your eyes:

  • David Rundblad
  • Brad Richards
  • Kris Versteeg (The Return)
  • Antoine Vermette
  • Kimmo Timonen
  • Tim Erixon
  • Artem Anisimov
  • Andrew Ladd (The Return)
  • Trevor Daley
  • Rob Scuderi
  • Brian Campbell (The Return)
  • Ryan Garbutt
  • Marko Dano
  • Jiri Sekac
  • Dale Weise
  • Tomas Fleischmann
  • Richard Panik
  • Johnny Oduya (The Return)
  • Patrick Sharp (The Return)
  • Brandon Saad (The Return)
  • Connor Murphy
  • Tomas Jurco
  • Anthony Duclair

It’s obviously quick to judge on Duclair and the early returns have looked promising. We’ve covered Saad ad nauseum and it’s not anyone’s fault in the front office that Connor Murphy is being punished for not being Niklas Hjalmarsson circa 2013. Anisimov filled a need. Brad Richards did the same for a year. Perhaps I’m missing a few more solid acquisitions. Please don’t say Jordan Oesterle.

The rest of the names on that list, though…Woof.

Ladd was clearly not the same player when he was re-acquired and had no business skating on a top line of a Cup contender; same with Versteeg as he was coming off knee surgery. The Hawks said they watched Kimmo Timonen skate at practice when he was making his way back from blood clots and said he’d have no problem keeping pace. Then he was nearly murdered by Anaheim and we all wept in horror as we watched. Rundblad, Weise, Fleischmann – there’s no need to relive any of that.

I get that the Hawks have had to go on the cheap when it came to acquiring guys with pro experience because they needed a lower cap hit and certain guys were Hail Mary acquisitions (Erixon, Panik and Sekac come to mind). But the names I mentioned in the previous two paragraphs were all guys where a ton of resources from other departments were sacrificed so the Hawks could acquire them. And their returns (other than Versteeg in 2015 and even that was not a home run) have brought back essentially nothing.

This, of course, raises a plethora of other questions to which we will never know the answers such as “How many of these acquisitions were made based on Stewart’s positive (incorrect) reports?” for one.

We’ve discussed on the podcast this season that the lack of young and polished defensemen has been one of the biggest reasons the Hawks find themselves in the position they are in. If we dig even deeper, I think you’ll find there’s another huge gap in the organization and that is in their ability to accurately project pro players. Meanwhile, the European and amateur departments are continuing to fill the roster with useful pieces as we see the aforementioned DeBrincat, Schmaltz, Hinostroza and Kampf growing into more responsibility.

Pro scouting should really be the easiest pieces to identify. After all, there is not nearly as much projection or player development required compared to the other two. It’s also the department that can make the most immediate (positive or negative) impact as teams are not waiting months or years for guys to grow into a role. In the case of the Hawks, it’s also arguably the most important as they’ve been in a Win-Now mode since 2008.

This divide of talent identification between the three departments has been growing for awhile and it’s helped put the Hawks in the position they find themselves today. Now, there are rumblings that their two main off-season acquisitions (Saad and Murphy) look like question marks as to whether they’re even in the team’s plan for the future. How in the hell is that even remotely healthy for the long-term picture, Senator?

If you’re tired of blaming the same three guys for the Hawks current woes, here’s another place where you can point a finger.

*Two friends of the program alerted me after the original post that Mark Kelley has been in charge of amateur scouting since 2008 and Ryan Stewart has been in charge of pro scouting since 2012. Their titles have changed over the years and I originally went by what was listed on the Hawks website. The changes were made above to reflect that.

 

Everything Else

Now Here Is Nowhere

By Sam Fels 2704 0

Last night’s frustrating loss whipped up a little more vitriol and angst than previous losses have. Perhaps it was the manner, as the Hawks did play well, couldn’t finish, and were on the donkey end of a couple calls (one not egregious, one that really defies belief). Still, the Hawks only scored one goal that mattered, really none at even-strength, and you’re going to get what you get when you do that. Which is not much and basically a handful of yourself.

And while it hurts to say, given the results everywhere else it’s left the playoff hopes in tatters, and now the Hawks are going to need something bordering on miraculous to even get back into the discussion. Which means the knives are coming out, and that means people want guillotine fodder.

It’s understandable. While I don’t think anyone expected this team to repeat last year’s regular season, this has been a disappointment. The injury to Crawford has been more crucial than anyone wants to admit, because no one wants to admit their team hinges so heavily on a goalie. But the Hawks are hardly alone in this. If Pekka Rinne weren’t having a renaissance season at 35 the Preds would be way off where they are, because they really haven’t been a good defensive team yet this year. The Jets and Hellebuyck. Vegas and their rotating cast of clowns. When the Kings were riding high it was because Quick was throwing a .940 at the league. Even Tampa, the best team in the league, has Vasilevskiy as a Vezina leader. Rask has lifted Boston. This is just how the league works now.

But that’s not enough for a lot, and I don’t know that they’re wrong. People want the house cleaned, and that’s both GM and coach.

Our feelings on the coach are well-known at this point, so let’s save that for a bit later. When it comes to any possible firing of Stan Bowman, one has to ask what the expectations for him and the team really were, not what they said they were, and what mistakes you’re firing him for.

If Stan is truly, and being allowed, to try and engineer a rebuild on the fly and the results this year aren’t quite as important as next season’s or the one after that, you’d have to say his results at worst are just on the positive side. Nick Schmaltz has proven to be a bonafide #2 center in this league. Alex DeBrincat looks to be a future top line sniper, with a dash of vision thrown in. The Connor Murphy trade was a good one, whatever his coach or blinded local media seem to think. Vinnie Hinostroza and David Kampf look like they can be bottom-six contributors on a good team.

Yes, Brandon Saad has disappointed. Maybe that could have been scouted out in Columbus, because he did do this at times there, too. But the thought was that being back in Chicago and on the top line would reinvigorate him. Stan was hardly the only one who thought that. Other than Kane, the other veterans have not performed up to their usual standards. But what was the alternative there? They’re going to be here until they retire.

Ah, this is where the discussion begins. Brent Seabrook’s contract. Ok, let’s have it. Let’s go back in time. Even if I were to grant you that Seabrook’s extension was all Stan’s decision, and I won’t, remember when this contract was signed. Three months after a third parade. It would have taken quite the tires for any GM to let Seabrook go into the last year of his deal, after he was a major, major cog in a third triumph (and you forget how good he was that spring) and then simply let him walk. Or better yet, trade him right after the confetti had fallen to the Soldier Field ground or during the season. I can’t think of a precedent for it. Yes, you might point to the purge after the first Cup, but there was no alternative there. And all of Ladd, Byfuglien, Sopel, Versteeg, even Niemi, were more contributors than cornerstones. Seabrook was a cornerstone. Yes, the Penguins let Trevor Daley walk after two Cups. Trevor Daley also sucks and always has. You’ll notice they probably overpaid for Justin Schultz. They’ve hinted at trading Kris Letang, which would be a comp, except he’s been fragile his whole career and wasn’t even part of last year’s run. Seabrook was neither of those two things at the time.

Yes, perhaps Stan could have played more hardball (again, if this was up to him). Maybe he could have gotten less years on it, but that probably only raises the AAV. And quite simply, hardball negotiations are not something the Hawks do. They’re terrified of it. That’s why they traded Saad the first time instead of waiting him out and imagining an incoming offer sheet that simply was never going to happen. It’s why they’ve twice handed Toews and Kane extensions well before their deals were up that were probably higher than they had to be. It’s why Crow got his deal, though man does that look like a bargain now. They just don’t do it. Their first priority, it seems, is to be seen as THE player-friendly organization.

Stan’s biggest mistakes were losing Teuvo, Johns, and Danault for essentially nothing (though the latter was in a go-for-it trade that simply didn’t work). Even if we accept they had to go, you can’t lose young players like that for nothing in return. And that’s the ground that Stan is trying to make up. I would argue that he had to lose those players to pay other ones to please coach and president, but I won’t be able to prove that until someone writes the tell-all book in about 10 years.

Another thing Stan is working against this campaign is that due to the NHL’s incomprehensibly stupid cap-recapture penalties, he wasn’t really allowed to do anything with Hossa’s money. The Hawks chose not to use the LTIR money in the summer so they could have flexibility during the season, and that’s understandable. What’s not is that they had to make that decision at all. Hossa’s contract was not against the rules when signed, so why should any team be punished for that after the fact? The blame could go to the players’ union as well here, who simply lied down and accepted this ridiculous rule without any fight.

If Hossa could have simply retired and freed up the money, which he should have been able to do, it’s not like the last free agent class was staggering but there were players who could have helped, whatever the aims of this season. Bonino? Shattenkirk (was only going to the Rangers but you get it)? Radulov? Hainsey? Kulikov? Varying degrees here, but clearly some if not all would have helped. The Hawks couldn’t do any of it because of cap-recapture. That seems like a pretty big obstacle.

If you’re firing Stan, it’s for either not starting this rebuild-on-the-fly in the immediate aftermath of a Cup, which seems just about impossible. Or you’re firing him because you don’t like where this is going, and as stated above that’s not correct. Or you’re firing him because players got old.

I’m not saying this roster turnover is going to work next year or the one after, and then it won’t matter anyway, I don’t think. But if indeed that’s what’s going on here, Stan should get to see it to its completion. And if that falls short, then I give you permission to fire him.

Everything Else

Angry at Numbers: Murphy Go Down on the Merry-Go-Round

By John Pullega 2722 0

This post is not a referendum on anyone’s play last night. Last night was a decent effort by most, muddled by the NHL’s complete refusal to clarify what its own rules are, and peppered with the missed chances, lack of finish, and poor shooting percentages that have become the norm around here. What this post aims for is to figure out why guys like Kempný and Murphy seem to get scratched for no reason that makes sense, while our favorite whipping horse gets the ice despite his performances.

If you look at just last night’s numbers, it might make sense. Seabrook had a good possession game. But he also took a confounding boarding penalty that put the Hawks 5v3. He also couldn’t chase down Sean Monahan with the goalie pulled, allowing him to slide home the dagger. But those kinds of things are exactly why having Murphy sit yesterday and Kempný sit the game before seem so frustratingly random. If either of those two had been in Seabrook’s position, either on the penalty or the Monahan goal, is there any doubt that we’d need police dogs to start the search for them?

Now, the organ-I-zation wants you to believe that Murphy was “sick” last night, which explains why Crawford isn’t currently skating, why they pulled Toews off the ice immediately after his dizzy spell in 2012, and why they aren’t mentioned in the Montador suit. Because player health has been a top priority for this organization. You know how this looks by now.

While I may be an angry man, I can also be a reasonable man. So I decided to parse out some numbers to see whether Kempný or Murphy really deserved to sit over Seabrook. I looked at a few things over the last five games to see which trends I could snuff out. These stats do not include yesterday’s game.

I looked at each player’s total time on ice and the lines he played against primarily in each of the last five games. Then I compared his CF% against just that line to his total CF% for each game. Finally, I looked at the percentage of faceoffs he took in the offensive zone during the game, and logged how many goals he was on the ice for, just for fun.

First, I looked at Kempný.

* = Got domed by the Johansen line (42+)

Looking at the first two games, the raw numbers suggest that Kempný wasn’t playing that great. His full-game possession shares were below water, despite starting in the offensive zone a vast majority of the time. During these two games (and the next game in Nashville), Kempný tended to play most of his time with some combination of Sharp/Wingels–Anisimov–Hartman, otherwise known as the Smykowski line. He did well with them in Toronto (getting crushed behind the Toews and Schmaltz lines) and horribly in Detroit.

But look at the Nashville game: Against the Turris line—which, aside from Hartnell, is usually Nashville’s second line—he posted a 57+ CF%. What dragged him down was the Johansen line, and he was far from the only Blackhawk to deal with that problem. Recall that Quenneville purposely kept Toews away from the Johansen line as much as he could on the road, and that the Johansen line had a collective 60+ CF% for the game. It’s hard to be upset about what Kempný did there, especially with the shit zone starts.

The fourth game against Vancouver was a relative rebirth. He played most of his time against Vancouver’s top line and completely skulled them. The poor zone starts had little to no effect on his possession share, as he and Murphy led all Hawks D-Men in possession. Additionally, this was a game that saw Kempný backing up DeBrincat–Toews–Duclair just about as often as he did Wingels–Anisimov–Hartman.

After that game, by far the best of the bunch, Quenneville scratched Kempný. He was on the ice for one 5v5 goal through four games.

And what of Connor Murphy, the most consistent Hawks D-Man over the last few months?

* = Faced 4th line of Komerov–Moore–Kapanen at nearly the same rate of time for a 75 CF%

^ = Got domed by the Johansen line (42+)

~ = Tkachuk–Backlund–Frolik each had a CF% of 50+ against ALL Hawks except Jurco, Gustafsson, and Seabrook

Like his partner, Murphy had a rough go of it against Toronto. The Bozak line pushed him crotch-first into the corner of an end table. But the other line he played against at about the same rate of time, the Komerov line, got slimed by Murphy, with Murphy coming out with a 75 CF% against them.

He turned it around in Detroit, pasting the Larkin line despite a huge lead. This may seem odd, since he and Kempný were paired up throughout the game, but I think there’s an explanation. While both Kempný and Murphy found themselves behind the Smykowski line most often, Murphy backed up the Schmaltz line as his secondary forward line, whereas Kempný backed up the Kampf line. Given how Q tends to use those two lines (Schmaltz’s in the offensive zone as much as possible, Kampf’s as a Kruger Lite), it might explain the difference.

Murphy fared more poorly overall against Nashville, but for the same reason as Kempný: Johansen’s line ate everyone’s lunch. And when you consider the putrid offensive zone–start rate and the opponent, that game makes more sense in terms of possession.

Like Kempný, Murphy had his best game against Vancouver. But then Calgary happened, which saw Murphy get creamed by Calgary’s 3M line to the tune of a 17+ CF%. And while the overall CF% isn’t pretty either, especially considering the decent offensive zone starts, it bears mentioning that the 3M line had at least a 50 CF% against everyone except Jurco, Gustafsson, and Seabrook.

There’s no doubt Murphy had a bad game in Calgary, but relative to the team, it’s not as bad as it seems. It’s certainly not scratch-worthy in my view, unless you’re blaming the game-tying turnover entirely on him and believe that’s a scratchable offense. That seems a bit too punitive to me, but Murphy’s been Darkness to Q’s Rick James since he got here.

He was on the ice for two 5v5 goals through five games, and was “sick” last night (OF DIS TEAM, YA KNOW WHAT I’M SAYIN’?).

And then, there was Seabrook.

* = Got buried by the Baertschi–Horvat–Boeser line (18+) and the Sedin–Sedin–Virtanen line (40)

^ = Split time against two lines.

This is where it gets frustrating, because none of Seabrook’s numbers justify sitting Kempný or Murphy over him. Against Toronto, Detroit, and Vancouver, Seabrook had decent-to-plush zone starts and garbage possession. In the one game he played the fewest minutes of any D-Man, the Hawks dominated. And if we’re going to claim that Murphy should have been scratched for Calgary’s game-tying goal (he shouldn’t have), then the goal Seabrook fell down for against apparent-future-Hall-of-Famer Brendan Gaunce ought to be grounds for banishment to the center of the sun.

Compounding this problem is that in the four games prior to Calgary, he found himself behind the Schmaltz line. And we know what happens when those guys lose the puck. So in an effort to shield him, Quenneville also managed to set him up to look foolish, which he often did.

Anyway, the first Flames game was an odd mishmash regarding whom Seabrook saw at 5v5. While he spent the most overall time against the Mangiapane (2:55)–Bennett (7:04)–Brouwer (6:19) line, he also saw a not-negligible amount of time against Gaudreau (5:06)–Monahan (4:22)–Ferland (4:49). The Johnny Hockey line also saw the most time against Keith–Oesterle by a long shot, which makes me think that any time Glen Gulutzan’s trust-fund face could chase matchups, he was sending his best at Gustafsson–Seabrook. Ironically, Seabrook held his own against Johnny Hockey & Co. better than against the Bennett Brouwer line. But over all five games, Seabrook was on the ice for five 5v5 goals.

Perhaps most damning are the WOWY numbers for these three over the last five (or four in Kempný’s case). Away from the Smykowski line, Kempný and Murphy consistently logged CF%s of 52+ to 54+.

Seabrook’s numbers with the Schmaltz line cut two ways in terms of bad. In the 31+ minutes he’s played with the Schmaltz line (with Saad on the left side), the entire regiment has had a 35+ CF%. Conversely, Gustafsson and Seabrook have a 57+ CF% away from the Schmaltz line. It’s almost like that line and that pairing don’t belong together.

And that’s not even getting into Gustafsson’s WOWY with Seabrook since he’s been called up (46+ WITH Seabrook, 58+ WITHOUT), or the fact that Gustafsson and the Schmaltz line have a 100 CF% in their four minutes away from Seabrook over the last five. That’s probably more of a sample size mirage, but it makes you wonder.

In short, it’s hard to find a statistical reason to sit Kempný or Murphy over Seabrook. It would make at least some sense to rotate Seabrook and Rutta, given their similarities in style and handedness, and since Rutta looked good by the numbers against Calgary the first time (54+ CF%). Instead, we’ll watch Q and Ulf trot Seabrook out like he’s Blood Sugar Sex Magik, even though he’s decidedly not that anymore, in the name of genius, leadership, or whatever other White Castle fart excuse they can find to justify this journey toward mediocrity in 2018.

Stats from NaturalStatTrick.com

Line rankings & positionings from dailyfaceoff.com, with cross-referencing on NaturalStatTrick

Everything Else

Game #53 Do I Believe in God? Do I Believe in Me? – Hawks 2, Flames 3

By Rose Rankin 2872 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Corsica

This was a painful one tonight. The Hawks actually played well, managing to lead in possession in all three periods and dominate in shots, and even Glass Jeff had a good night (and you know how I feel about that guy as a starter, so this should tell you something about his performance). I don’t like to scream at refs and blame bad calls because everyone gets bad calls, and it usually all comes out a wash. That wasn’t exactly the case tonight, but I’m still not going to scream. I might cry in a dark room, though. To the bullets:

–Let’s not bury the lede: the Hawks basically were unlucky/got screwed by a call on a truly bizarre play. What would have been their second goal, taking place about midway through the second period, was called back after not one but two reviews, the first from the “war room,” the second from a coach’s challenge by Calgary. Hartman and Jurco were scrambling in the crease, and while TJ Brodie was assaulting Hartman, Mike Smith lunged at him (Hartman), and in the ensuing scrum the puck managed to trickle in. It was impossible to see if it was kicked in with any kind of distinct motion, and aside from a deflection off Hartman’s glove, the puck couldn’t be seen in the mess of bodies and equipment.

This is why the call on the ice of a goal wasn’t overturned by Toronto, but Smith, knowing that Oscar season is coming up, turned in a performance that was enough to get the goal overturned the second time through. The concept of goalie interference has become a complete joke, from Bettman’s shruggy-emoji comments the other day to the nonsensical calls on the ice in various games that get stupider by the day. Nice work, NHL.

–As alcohol-consumption-inducing as that sequence turned out to be, it was precipitated by some actual quality plays at the blue line. Jurco kept the puck in the zone as he was leaving the penalty box and jumping in, and his shot started the entire process (albeit with a point-blank fuck up by Garbage Dick). Seconds later Kempny made a great keep that led to the net-front scramble. As someone used to seeing the Hawks at the blue line resemble a sieve where the holes are too large and draining spaghetti leads to maddening leakage that you’re helpless to stop, this was encouraging.

–In the end, though, it didn’t matter because what had the appearance of a goal on a high stick late in the third by Gaudreau was allowed to stand. It seemed clear if not dead certain that he tipped it with his stick above the crossbar, but it was obviously not conclusive enough for the refs so they let it stand after Q’s challenge. Kane finally dialed up his give-a-shit meter to get it to 3-2, but it was with barely five seconds left in the game (after he had missed on a couple good chances earlier), so it did nothing. Two calls went the Flames’ way tonight and the Hawks didn’t play well enough to overcome it. And now the hole they’ve dug themselves just got much, much deeper.

– The 3M line was good but didn’t dome the Toews line tonight. Through the second period they actually had a CF% at 40 and less. It wasn’t until the third period that they got above 50%. Tkachuk and Backlund combined for 5 shots so they got it together eventually, but at least they didn’t kick the shit out of everyone?

– The Fels Motherfuck almost made an appearance tonight. After we decided on this week’s podcast that Ryan Hartman basically sucks—for reasons that are not entirely his fault—he came out and played very well. Had he been credited with that crazy goal, it probably would have reached Motherfuck status. That aside, he personified the much-sought-after Annette Frontpresence on Top Cat’s power play goal in the first, and at the end of the first his Corsi was 100%. That’s right. 100%. He ended the night with an 86.4 CF%, and three shots. So all that pooh-pooing of the Saad-Hartman-Sharp line was, perhaps, premature, but they still didn’t score so maybe not. With the way this season has gone, I expect they’ll follow a solid performance tonight with an average of about a 15 CF% and trip over their own dicks to give up four goals while they’re on the ice on Thursday.

–In another test of do-you-see-this-as-half-full-or-half-empty, Seabrook was extra stupid in the second with a boarding penalty while the Hawks were already on the kill. The full-glass aspect of this was that Toews, Keith, and Rutta did a masterful job of killing the 5-on-3. Toews won a key faceoff near the end of it, Keith had a couple blocks, and Glass Jeff, bless his heart, he did what had to be done.

–Kempny and Rutta seemed like an odd pairing to me before the game, but they managed decent possession numbers (65.4 CF% and 64 CF% at evens), and overall the defense was not terrible. I’m still a little suspicious of CONNOR MURPHY’s illness being the reason he was scratched tonight, unless he was already retching yesterday and that’s why they had him paired with Tommy fucking Wingels for practice. Or more likely, being paired with a non-defenseman waste of space MADE him sick. These are the twisted conspiratorial thoughts I’m left with thanks to the team’s constant secrecy.

All the teams we’re chasing won tonight. The Wild, the Ducks, and as of this writing, the Avs were winning as well (not to mention the obvious with the Flames getting two points on us). We’ve said it nearly every game that THIS IS THE TIME and they must turn things around, but it’s starting to feel like that may not happen. Even when they played well, they just didn’t get the breaks going their way. Like Ozzie Guillen said, I’d rather be lucky than good.

Beer de jour: Vanilla Porter by Breckenridge (not usually my type of beer but this is the post-Super-Bowl dregs of my fridge).

Line of the Night: “The ref’s explanation was garbage.” —Adam Burish, describing the goalie interference call and everyone’s thoughts on the matter.

Everything Else

Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – February 6th

By Sam Fels 1279 0

First Screen Viewing

Vegas vs. Pittsburgh – 6pm

I guess it’s time we take them seriously. They’re not going anywhere. They’re going to be annoying and stay there. It’ll be quite the emotional night in The Burgh as Marc-Andre Fleury returns for the first time to see the team that replaced him. He had a major hand in two rings and played a bit part in a third. Ever see a horse cry? You will tonight. Given the speed with Vegas tries to get up and down, and how they basically took that from the Penguins, this one’s going to be frantic.

Second Screen Viewing

Wild vs. Blues – 7pm

This one concerns the Hawks, though you may have forgotten the Blues are still a team in the division given that they’ve only played that Hawks once and that was in October. The Wild are a team that has to be caught, so Hawks fans find themselves in the unusual spot of having to hope the Blues take this one in regulation before the Hawks can get their own dent in the Wild on Saturday.

Other Games

Ducks vs. Sabres – 6pm

Flyers vs. Hurricanes – 6pm

Capitals vs. Blue Jackets – 6pm

Devils vs. Senators – 6:30

Bruins vs. Red Wings – 6:30

Canucks vs. Panthers – 6:30

Coyotes vs. Jets – 7pm

Sharks vs. Avalanche – 8pm

Everything Else

Game #53 – Flames vs. Hawks Preview/Non-Stop Ho Down: How Can We Walk Amongst All These Gauntlets?

By Sam Fels 2189 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Flames 26-18-8   Hawks 24-20-8

PUCK DROP: 7:30

TV: NBCSN Chicago

SONS OF OTTO: Flamesnation.ca

The following is getting into “Jimini Jillickers!” territory, but tonight begins a crucial stretch for the Hawks. If that stretch didn’t already start last Saturday. Or after the break. Or a month ago. I’ve declared so many of these fucking things it’s impossible to keep track. The bottom line is the Hawks need to kick this pick if the last month or so of the season is going to matter. And we’ll probably say that again soon.

The Hawks get seven of the next 10 at home, except that hasn’t been a panacea for anything for them this year. Three of those home games are against teams that are with them in the Western muddle around the last playoff spot, tonight against Calgary, next week against the Ducks, and Saturday against the Wild. They basically need to take all three in regulation, plus a few others. If they don’t eat well at home over the next three weeks, then you’ll know it’s over. There’s another thing I’ve said way too often.

Apparently Joel Quenneville gets the desperation, as he’s throwing more shit at the wall in the hopes of proving his geniusness once again. “GENTLEMEN! I HAVE INVENTED….THIS LINEUP!”

It has a new 3rd/4th line, depending on your point of view, of Saad-Hartman-Sharp. I guess there’s some benefit in cloistering your three biggest disappointments altogether, and hoping the mass ennui just turns itself into a positive force. I have no idea what it’s supposed to do, though Hartman and Saad could actually do something if they had a playmaker with them to get them in space where they perform better. Sharp is not that guy, but there aren’t any other options besides Wingels or Bouma so let’s just go with this. Give them the same instructions that have made Jurco-Kampf-Vinnie Smalls successful. Just do shit and do it fast, even if Sharp isn’t capable. Let’s not complicate this.

Of course, no desperate Hawks game would be complete without Q setting up his d-pairs while fingering his own ass, so out goes Connor Murphy again for reasons no one can understand. Especially when it involves giving Jan Rutta and Brent Seabrook more time. It’s ok, not like the Flames didn’t run circles around these two just last time out! Glass Jeff gets the start and poor rebound control.

As for the Flames, they have their own work to do as they sit outside both the wildcard and Pacific playoff picture, which are both open to them. They trail both by one point, and you have to believe this team is going to haul in the Kings because they’re not really any good and the Flames should be. Yes, they have depth scoring problems, though Kris Versteeg seems to be ready to come riding in on his donkey to save the day. Because you know Steeger would ride a donkey instead of a horse. Don’t play. They have the best pairing in the West, a goalie playing pretty well, and a genuine top six. This shouldn’t be that hard but they seem intent on making it so. They’ll be the “Team No One Wants To Play (TM).”

Worth watching tonight is how cute Q gets with his matchups. The top six of the Flames simply stinkfisted the Hawks top six in Calgary, and that doesn’t leave a lot of wiggle room for Q to get both away from Monahan or Backlund. But there are going to be spots when that is necessary, because the Hawks really need this one. He did it on the road in Nashville and in theory it should be easier at home. But it’s not something he’s done a lot of lately, and we all know Rutta is going to start every shift in the d-zone against Monahan and Gaudreau because GENIUS TREE CUPZ YOU DORK!

Just kill me already.

Game #53 Preview

Preview

Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built