Game #10 Preview Suite
This generally happens every October. As we know, the NHL season tends to be wacky and fun and Seussian in the first month as teams scramble to entrench themselves into their standings position. We know they pretty much have to because of how hard it is to make up ground late in the season, and the percentage of teams that are in the playoffs spots at Thanksgiving that stay there (just north 0f 75% as of last check). You can’t entrench by gaining one point. You need two. And you generally need to keep the other team from getting one. So teams actually go for it. If this is where you’d ask wouldn’t this be solved season-long if wins were worth three points you can just shove it because your logic has no place in the hockey world! Put your telescope away, Galileo! (He used one, right?)
So scoring is up so far. But is it simply that? Will teams pull back, combined with boredom, in December and beyond to give us the turgid, uninspiring morass we’ve come to know and…well, know? I’m not so sure.
The numbers are there. Teams are averaging 3.11 goals per game after 2.97 last year. Though this is just about the same jump we saw from two seasons ago to last, which was 2.77 to 2.97. Maybe it’s just the way things are going? That’s a bit simplistic, so let’s dive a little deeper.
There are four teams averaging over 35 shots per game, when no team managed it for the total of last year (topping the list are the Hurricanes who are averaging a simply bonkers 41 shots per game so far). However, only 22 teams are averaging over 30 shots per game, while 28 managed it last year. So the high-end, the more volatile selection, is higher. But overall there aren’t more shots being taken from last year. In fact, teams are averaging slightly less shots than last year, 31.3 to 31.8.
As far as overall attempts, there are five teams averaging over 65 attempts per 60 minutes at evens, and nine over 60. Last year, only five teams got over 60 per 60 (isn’t that neat?), and none over 65. So there are more teams attempting more shots, but that doesn’t mean that many are getting through. That would suggest there is more action, just not that much more important action.
Teams are getting faster and copying all the time, so you do see more teams trying to replicate what the Penguins, Knights, Predators have done over the past couple seasons. A couple teams have pivoted to more aggressive coaches. The Stars went from Ken Hitchcock to Jim Montgomery, and they’ve seen a slight uptick in both attempts and shots per game. Bill Peters went from Carolina to Calgary, but they’ve actually seen a downtick in both categories. His replacement in Raleigh, Rod Brind’Amour, certainly has not overseen a downtick. The Coyotes have changed their system, and Ottawa and Montreal at least have tweaked theirs.
The number that jumps out most so far though is that team SV% has dropped .912 to 908 this year. Some will attribute this to the new goalie pads, and that probably plays a role. Some will attribute it to some of the league’s better goalies getting off to slow starts, or not being around at all in the case of Corey Crawford or Roberto Luongo. Jonathan Quick has been abhorrent in LA, Cam Talbot is still stepping on his tongue in Edmonton, Marc-Andre Fleuy has been pretty woeful in Vegas (and really, who could have seen that coming?), Holtby terrible in DC as he was at the start of last year, Martin Jones has been bad, Sergei Bobrovsky worse, and Connor Hellebuyck has been mediocre (say it like Immortan Joe).
Still, they can’t all be off to slow starts, right? There must be something.
Combine that with how many teams simply whiffed on their goaltending decisions. Trusting Mike Smith in Calgary was always going to end in ennui. Jake Allen in St. Louis…well, you know what we’d write here. Did they really thing Carter Hutton would work in Buffalo? Jimmy Howard has been an anchor for a while, which is good for a team trying to bottom out like the Wings (wait, they’re doing what?). The decision to stick with Brian Elliot in Philly is why Gritty looks like that.
The amount of teams getting steady goaltending right now is pretty thin. The Rangers and Ducks are, and those teams both suck eggs. The Stars are getting good work from Ben Bishop. If you want to argue the Hawks now that Crow is back, I guess you can but we’ll need more than the three games Crow has gotten. Dubnynk is doing his normal thing, Kinkaid has been really good in New Jersey, and Varlamov has been a mutant in Colorado (not hard for him). Throw the Lightning, Predators, and Canucks on the list. Essentially, 10 teams are getting average goaltending at even-strength. One of them is Calgary that has Rittich making up for the toxic waste Mike Smith is leaving behind. Minnesota and Anaheim are getting incredible goaltending, but they’re also giving up the most shots in the game. So there are still goals to be had against them. Without their goaltending, the commissioner would have to step in and relegate them.
But that’s not all of it. Could it be the pressure and chances these goalies are asked to stand up against is higher? Yes, it appears that way. Currently, eight teams have an expected goals-against per 60 minutes over 2.8. Only one team did that last year, which was the Rangers. Still though, deeper you go it’s about the same. Nine teams had an xGA/60 last year over 2.5. This year that number is 11 (it always comes back to Nigel Tuffnel on this blog). A difference to be sure, but not huge.
There clearly isn’t one answer to this. Everyone hopes it sticks around, though.
There is something so satisfying about this kind of Blackhawks win. Were they perfect? No. But they were the better team on the ice from start to finish. The players you want to see step up and play well did just that. Corey Crawford did his thing. Sure, it was the Ducks. That doens’t make this kind of win any less fun. Let’s get to the bullets:
– The Hawks played well in the first period, but there was enough within the period that made me say “yuck” that I almost choked laughing when Chris Boden and Jamal Mayers posited that it was the best period of the season for the Hawks. The breakouts that were such a major issue for the Hawks against the Lightning on Sunday were an issue yet again, and if the Hawks have any real strategy on getting through the neutral zone it was hardly on display tonight, let alone in the first period. If they can’t have one guy – usually Kane or Toews, it seems – carry the puck all the way through the zone, they’re completely lost, and it seems no one is capable of making a good pass in that zone, including 19 and 88. The Ducks love to sit back and let the other team charge at them, which is incredibly stupid, but tonight it worked, because the Hawks were still having trouble getting into their own zone.
– This was another strong game for Saad, who finally cut off the snake’s head and got himself on the scoresheet with his first goal this season. He was dominant throughout the night as well, skating with a fire under his ass and playing a piss and vinegar kinda game. He was all over the ice in the final minutes as well, as the Hawks attempted to close it out. He consistently got pressure on puck carriers and was able to get the empty netter for goal number two of the night and season. The optimism around Saad remains high nearly across the board for the FFUD crew, so I don’t think anyone was near the panic button on him at all, but him finally scoring feels like a bit of a weight off (more for him than us, I’m sure) and hopefully he continues to play this way. If he does, the production is going to come to him.
– Another point on Saad – can people please stop bringing up the fuckin’ Panarin trade every time he does something good. You don’t have to validate the trade, and bringing it up only lends credence to the idea that it was a bad trade, which it wasn’t. You don’t have to convince people Saad is good – he is. Is he the offensive dynamo that Panarin is? No. But Panarin was a toy – he’s the kind of player that is a scoring luxury for a good team. He would probably be a detriment to this current edition of the Blackhawks. And Brandon Saad fucks. Thanks.
– Jokiharju is pretty much the real deal. For him to be doing what he is doing at the NHL level right now, at 19 years old, is almost unheard of from defensemen that aren’t heralded as generational talents prior to being drafted. Now, that doesn’t mean Joker is a generational talent, because he isn’t. But being strong on both ends of the ice, closing gaps and sealing opponents off from the puck, and being able to make plays with the puck on his stick like he can, all at 19 years old against grown ass men who are stronger and more experienced than you are all things that bode well for his NHL present and future. He might end up proving to be better than we all expected.
– I am admittedly not the best at noticing player trends thoughout a game if they’re subtle, so maybe I am wrong here, but I thought Erik Gustafsson had a pretty good game tonight. He definitely made a hell of play on the GWG, with a great shot fake that left John Gibson’s jockstrop in the crease before he fed Kane for an easy one-timer. He didn’t have a particularly outstanding game, but he was solid and didn’t do anything that was overtly bad. That probably counts as good for him.
– Thank God for Corey Crawford, and his brain that is (hopefully) not a blended mess, after all. He is still the same old top-five NHL goalie he was before he got hurt last year. That is good and I am happy.
– It’s just not the same to watch a Ducks game and not see the mutated pile of infant diapers that is Corey Perry on the ice. However, I enjoyed it greatly. May it continue forever.
First Screen Viewing
Sharks vs. Predators – 7pm
It’s always stupid to label anything a playoff preview in October, but these two teams would be awfully disappointed if it didn’t turn out that way. These are two of the three/four teams that matter in the West (depending on your view of Vegas), and this will be their first chance to size each other up. The Sharks don’t have the record that the Preds do, but they’ve been murdering pretty much everyone across from them but just haven’t gotten the luck. Martin Jones’s .907 SV% to start the season sure hasn’t helped, as well as seeing some goalies channel Merlin against them. The Preds have had no such problems, and thanks to Pekka Rinne’s injury, Juuse Saros is getting the net. Which is probably how it should have been anyway. He’s carrying consecutive shutouts into this one. This is truly the aristocracy.
Second Screen Viewing
Flames vs. Canadiens – 6:30
I’m fairly sure both of these teams blow. I’m fairly sure both are run by morons. But they’ve gotten off to decent enough starts to delude their drunken fanbases that they might not be either. Watch them throw their own feces at each other.
Other Games
Panthers vs. Rangers – 6pm
Coyotes vs. Blue Jackets – 6pm
Bruins vs. Senators – 6:30
Kings vs. Stars – 7:30
Penguins vs. Oilers – 8pm
vs. 
RECORDS: Ducks 5-3-1 Hawks 4-2-2
PUCK DROP: 7:30
TV: NBCSN
MICKEY PASSED OUT ON THEIR LAWN: Anaheim Calling
If you just spent the weekend getting completely pummeled by good teams, and the Hawks pretty much did, then there’s no better cure than getting to face a team that everyone has been feeding their own scrotum to, which is exactly what the Anaheim Ducks have been.
Don’t let that record fool you. That’s completely a result of both Anaheim goalies, John Gibson and Ryan “I Destroy Angels” Miller each having a SV% over .938. The Ducks are averaging, just averaging mind you, getting outshot each game by 13. They have the worst team-Corsi and team-xGF% by a good distance. They have been getting killed every night, and only the men in the masks performing six separate miracles has gotten them the 11 points they have. They’re going to sink in the Pacific quicker than a drunk yuppie into the Chicago River on St. Patty’s day. At least they will if this keeps up.
The one card the Ducks might pull to try and explain this away is they’re missing like half their forward-lineup. Jakob Silfverberg will miss out tonight with a hand (resist the urge to clap). Corey Perry, or really the wreckage that once was this world-class ass-boil, is out for five months and his career is pretty much over. Nick Ritchie only just signed a new contract and should be back any game but not tonight. Ondrej Kase has the brown brain. Patrick Eaves has his normal catastrophic injury that somehow keeps inflating his reputation.
All of this has forced the Ducks to turn to a bunch of kids and freight-train residents to fill out the lineup, and it’s not like Randy Carlyle has ever been a master of maximizing what he has. A couple of these kids do have promise, like Sam Steel, Maxime Cotois, and Kiefer Sherwood (which simply can’t be his real name). But the rest of this is filled out with dreck, and that goes with the fuck that Ryan Getzlaf hasn’t been able find to give for three seasons, and Ryan Kesler‘s hips audibly turning into paste. Needless to say, there are problems up front.
That still shouldn’t completely excuse the woeful performances, because this defense should be good. HAMPUS! HAMPUS!, Cam Fowler, Josh Manson, and Brandon Montour is a really good top four. Or it should be. Under Take A Long Look At Randy, they’ve been an utter mess. Carlyle can’t decide if he wants to stick with his good, hard, Canadian, dilapidated, grindy system or move to an up-tempo one that would better fit this blue line and the younger forwards. Instead you get this curdled goo in the middle because Getzlaf and Kesler can’t do anything. They should get up and go with what they have. Instead they lurch and shit.
As for the Hawks, you guessed it fucko, another line reshuffle. Brandon Saad‘s dominant Sunday sees him back with Kane, waiting patiently for Artem Anisimov to catch up. Nick Schmaltz slots down, still on the wing, with David Kampf and Alex Fortin. At least that line will be fast? Maybe? Whatever.
One of Arby’s will pair with Jan Rutta. No one here cares anymore which is which. Corey Crawford will get the start, and he must really be jonesin’ to get back in behind this defense that is still picking grass stems out of their teeth from Sunday.
But that’s ok, the Ducks are worse! Like, way worse! The Hawks just need to play as they did earlier in the season, and they should overwhelm an Anaheim team that hasn’t been able to find the gear shift all season. While the Ducks might have some speed thanks to having to play so many kids, it’s not usually in a useful direction. And Getzlaf has always been regurgitated by Jonathan Toews, and Kesler is like an old dog barking at passing cars while he waddles somewhat in their direction. The Hawks should be able to get up and down on this outfit.
That doesn’t mean they won’t get goalie’d by Gibson, who has been doing it all season. But that happens sometimes. Put him under severe pressure, and the Ducks can’t generate much on Crawford, and he should be able to match whatever Gibson is going to have to jump through several flaming hoops to produce.
This is a good week to get healthy. All of the Ducks, Rangers, Blues, and Oilers suck deep pond scum. Rack up all the points you can before the schedule turns up.
All right, let’s sit back and wait for Eddie O to go on another analytics rant.
Game #9 Preview Suite
We should say there’s always a caveat this early in the season. The Ducks have only played nine games. But if trends continue as they have begun for Anaheim, they might be one of the worst possession-teams the league has seen in some time. Which makes one wonder if John Gibson realizes just how much power he wields over the organization. He is the only reason they’ve won a game. If the Ducks are even average this year, with the way things are going, it’ll be because of Gibson. So if you’re Randy Carlyle, you’d better start buying all sorts of dinners, gifts, and free contractors for the house you’re going to build for him, if you want to keep your job. Because Gibson could send Carlyle to CV-writing with a snap of his fingers.
Randy Carlyle is an idiot, but so far this year he has put together a simply exquisite buffet of terrible hockey for the Anaheim fans to enjoy (not that they’d know the difference). Let’s review: The Ducks have a team-wide 41.1 CF%. That’s last in the league by a full point, behind such luminaries as the Islanders, Canucks, and Senators. Their expected-goals percentage, and you really want to take a breath or two before reading on here, is 36.9%. That starts with a “3,” That’s a full five points behind the 30th-placed team, which just so happens to be the Hawks. Just for a frame of reference, no team has finished a season with a mark below 40%. So if the Ducks want to make history, they’ll just have to stay on their current course.
The only team giving up more shots on goal than the Ducks at evens is the Hawks, and they have one period to thank for that. And where Joel Quenneville could point to a list of his d-men and quite rightly ask, “Just what the fuck do you want me to do with that?,” Carlyle has no such outs.
This is a team with Hampus Lindholm, Cam Fowler, Josh Manson, and Brandon Montour on its top four. Ok, the forwards have been without Jakob Silfverberg, Nick Ritchie, and Ondrej Kase due to injury. Don’t you dare mention Corey Perry’s aged and poisoned ass when talking about team speed. His feet went out the door two years ago. But still, Andrew Cogliano, Rickard Rakell, Adam Henrique, and Sam Steel are around. This isn’t a team bereft of speed.
So why is it playing like an overturned meat truck? They have d-men that can get themselves up the ice. They have forwards that can chase down the puck. And it’s all not working at all. They continue to dump the puck in in a league where most teams have d-men who are just going to turn around and skate away from you. Their d-men don’t stand up at the line even though they have recovery speed everywhere. And no one can seem to spell “breakout” much less complete one.
Carlyle was an idiotic, old-boys hire from the get-go. This is how insular the NHL had gotten, as GM Bob Murray didn’t just go to the Old Boys’ Club for a coach after turfing Bruce Boudreau and his allergies to home Game 7s, he went back to the coach they’d already kicked out. Did he just walk out to the parking lot and find Carlyle wandering around aimlessly kicking pebbles and looking like he had nowhere to go? Hiring him for the coaching job in the same fashion as you would adopt a lost dog actually makes the most sense.
The Ducks “success” under Carlyle basically amounts to Cam Talbot dying of exhaustion in the ’17 playoffs. They were crushed by the Sharks last year, signaling that things had to pivot from where they were. They clearly haven’t.
Gibson might keep Carlyle in a job all season, if he sees fit. Maybe the returning forwards will provide more pop. But clearly this is a ship that’s got a ton of holes in it, and the water level is rising.
Game #9 Preview Suite
Jen Neale has been doing this for us whenever the Ducks are around for close to 10 years. She really deserves better. Follow her @MsJenNeale.
The Ducks sit atop the Pacific at this early stage. Also, every metric says they’ve been getting wailed on every night and should basically be winless. Which is the truth?
They’re absolutely getting wailed on each night and I think it’s finally starting to catch up with them now that there’s tape to study. Nobody knew what to make of this team because of all the injuries and the unknown names in the roster.
Is this the year John Gibson is a Vezina finalist? Is it going to have to be if the Ducks are to have any hope?
Ughhh. John Gibson is the bane of my Ducks existence. He signed a massive eight-year contract in the off-season and is putting up a good start. The thing is his play style is unsustainable from a health standpoint. He’s going to have a stellar first half and then probably end up missing 20+ games over the second half of the season. By the time he’s “ready for the playoffs” the Ducks are on the brink of elimination and relying on old man Ryan Miller. It’s the same story every year. Sigh. I still miss Frederik Andersen. ANYHOO, the Ducks will make the playoffs regardless of Gibson and get bounced in the first round because of Gibson.
There’s a couple kids in the lineup these days in Sam Steel and Kiefer Sherwood (who needs a new name). Real reasons to get excited? Anyone we missed?
This season is the culmination of Randy Carlyle’s worst nightmare. He doesn’t have an enforcer in the lineup, he’s been mandated to play fast, not the grind style he’s always done, and he HAS to play a lineup full of rookies because of injuries. Kesler has the hips of a 90-year-old, Getzlaf is a perpetual lower-body injury, Perry will be out at least five months with a torn MCL, and Jakob Silfverberg is out with a non-displaced fracture in his hand. It’s like Adam Henrique and the Electric Mayhem out there. (That doesn’t even make sense. I just wanted to write it.)
Kiefer Sherwood is a great name. So is Sam Steel. I’m enjoying watching Maxime Comtois, also a great name, a physical kid with a great shot. There are about 394283907842 rookies in the lineup but those three are tops right now.
The Ducks have a ton of young d-men and some young forwards who at least look useful. They don’t need a total rebuild given what’s already here. But do they have the forwards to take the responsibilities off Kesler, Perry, and Getzlaf and eventually pivot from them? A rebuild on the fly, if you will.
Rebuild on the fly is the Ducks style. I give Perry, Getzlaf and Kesler two years max before they just give up and only show up to collect checks. The saving grace is Martin Madden and the Ducks amateur scouting department. The Ducks have given away more talent (Shea Theodore, William Karlsson, et. al) than most teams in the league. Since they’ve spent the last two, maybe three, drafts picking up more forwards and we’re starting to finally see them emerge from junior. I like what Dallas Eakins is doing with the Ducklings down in San Diego and feel good about them eventually filling out the lineup with Rickard Rakell, Silfverberg, Henrique and the rest of the Electric Mayhem.
Game #9 Preview Suite
I never said these things had to be rational.
Paul Kariya was a wonderful player. He ended up with over 400 goals and just short of 1000 points in his career. He perhaps played in the wrong era. If he played now, his speed would have been right in line with how the league is going and he would have been better protected from the hits and concussions that derailed his career. His post-playing life has been rough at times, which he’s been open about. He’s a cautionary tale. Certainly, there were few players more devastating when fully healthy and at full dial.
And I couldn’t stand him.
Maybe it was because the Hawks never had a player like him back then. They wouldn’t have seen past his size and ignored his game-breaking speed. Maybe it was because he had Matt Duchene’s face before Matt Duchene. Maybe it was the way he ran from trouble.
Or maybe it was this: When the Blues unveiled those third jerseys back in 2009, they had those tie-strings at the collar. Kariya came on stage with his wrapped in a neat little bow. Now, there’s nothing wrong with tying those strings into a bow. Except that you don’t. No one does. It looks ridiculous. And yet it seemed perfectly in character with Kariya the player.
Maybe it was he was just another annoying winger when the Predators first got good after the lockout and were routinely pummeling the Hawks, with Erat, Sullivan, Hartnell, Arnott, and three or four other ass-rashes. Maybe it was he and Teemu Selanne’s blood-pact that went balls-up in Colorado.
Maybe it’s all of it. Anyway, Kariya had his #9 retired on Sunday night, as he should have in Anaheim. But it was yet another chance for my blood to boil at the sight of that smile, that always-perfect hair, one I saw far too much as is streaked by Eric Fucking Weinrich again.
It doesn’t have to make sense. Fuck Paul Kariya.
Game #9 Preview Suite
