Everything Else

It shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that Rasmus Dahlin is ahead of his class of rookie defensemen. That should happen when you’re the #1 pick overall, and you’ve been touted as a generational talent since basically your balls dropped. It’s especially so when it’s something of a weak class of weak, neophyte d-men, with only Miro Heiskanen in Dallas, and maybe Rasmus Andersson in Calgary looking like they may be long-term, enjoyable playthings (and if you squint, Henri Jokiharju. Though you’ll have to squint a fuck of a lot harder now to see him in Winnebago County). Still, the Sabres couldn’t ask much more of Dahlin so far.

He’s put up just about a point every other game, That might not sound like much, but there have only been four players to have completed an NHL season on the blue line at the tender age of 18. They are Aaron Ekblad, Zach Bogosian (Dahlin’s partner), Jakob Chychrun, and Dahlin (40 games minimum). Dahlin sure looks like he’s going to get past Ekblad’s 39 points at 18, though it should be noted that it’s a higher scoring environment and Ekblad isn’t really supposed to be the fireworks factory that Dahlin projects to be. Still, better than a point every two games would make him the first to do it at this age since his coach Phil Housley managed it in 1983 (EIGHTY-THREE). Boy, the Sabres sure have surrounded him with people who have shared experience, huh?

Hell, to make it more impressive, only 10 players since 1980 have managed better than 40 points from the back at even 19. Zach Werenski, Mikhail Sergachev, and Cam Fowler are recent names to have done it, but there have only been 39 players that young to manage a half-season or more in the NHL in the past 20 years at all.

Which makes you wonder how one Adam Boqvist is going to fare when he comes up for air next year. Because he doesn’t have Dahlin’s size, but Dahlin has his skating ability. We just saw Henri Jokiharju get sent down because he couldn’t deal with the physicality of the league, or at least that’s what the Hawks are claiming. The challenge for Boqvist at 5-8 or whatever he actually may be, is clear. To expect first-pairing production for him is…well, it’ll be a hurdle, that’s for sure.

Dahlin’s relative metrics aren’t as impressive, as he’s adhered pretty close to the team rate on most counts, and lags behind Jokharju and Ozhiganov in Toronto among his class in terms of relative-Corsi and scoring-chances. And the Sabres are pretty much the same possession team the Hawks are, and pretty paltry when it comes to their share of scoring-chances. Still, to ask someone who is years away from drinking legally (of course, this is Buffalo, and we know how young people there tend to find a way) to rise above what his teammates are doing consistently.

The key to Dahlin is the eye-test of course, where his skating will immediately jump out at you. He still has that young d-man problem of trying to do too much and skating himself into blind alleys, but once that gets sorted you’ll probably have one of the most effective puck-movers in the game. The kid certainly doesn’t lack for confidence.

Which puts the Sabres in the catbird’s seat. Jack Eichel starts making his real money next year, but the Sabres don’t really have anyone else to re-sign, depending on your opinion of Zemgus Girgensons (and you don’t have one). If they could fool someone into taking fellow Rasmus (Ristolainen) away they would have nearly $40 million in space to play with. Sure, Buffalo isn’t exactly a free agent hotbed, but money is green just about anywhere. They’ll want Jeff Skinner to stay, though his likely 40-goal season puts him in $7-8M range. He’s also an asshole, But teams have gotten around that before, and Eichel has never had a winger like him to play with.

#1 d-men are just about the hardest thing to find, an dit’s hard to think of a team that’s gotten a parade without one (though the Capitals spring to mind, and even they had John Carlson putting up #1 points at least). The Sabres look to have that. Now it’s about everything else.

 

Game #52 Preview Suite

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Spotlight

Q&A

Douchebag Du Jour

I Make A Lot Of Graphs

Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Melissa Burgess has been a longtime contributor to DieByTheBlade.com, a leading Sabres site. You can follow her on Twitter @_MelissaBurgess. 

The Sabres had an incredible hot streak in the fall, but have been pretty poor since. What was going so right then that’s going so wrong now?

They did have an incredible hot streak, but it was a lucky one. So many of those wins came by one goal, whether in OT or shootout or regulation – it’s not like they were exactly running away with games. They just happened to find ways to win every night, grabbing the dirty goals, sometimes in the final minutes, and never giving up. So what’s changed? I think they just stopped meshing in that same way and it shows. Production drops off, pairings and lines don’t mesh the same, and all of a sudden, you find yourself out of the playoff picture.

What’s been the review of #1 overall pick Rasmus Dahlin?

Dahlin has been doing well so far in his rookie season. I think it’s important always for people to remember that he’s going to make mistakes, as any player is. But for Dahlin, it’s not just what he’s doing this season or what he does next season that matters; he’s hopefully a part of this team long-term and that success matters too. I think he’s a promising young defenseman and I like what I see from him.

Jeff Skinner is pouring in the goals but has yet to sign an extension. What’s the buzz on the chances of his long term stay?

It seems more likely than not that Skinner stays in Buffalo. I mean, when’s the last time you saw him without a smile on his face? In all seriousness, I’ve heard contract talks will start soon and I’m super excited for that. He’s an unreal player and it’s a treat to have him.

Jack Eichel is on his way to blowing past his career high in points. What’s the feeling about him there? Being drafted alongside Connor McDavid doesn’t help, but it doesn’t feel like he’s usually considered in the “next crop” of superstars like McDavid, Matthews, Petterssen, and the like…

I’ve never thought about it like that, but that’s true. You see everyone talking about the others, but not Eichel so much. I think he’s a quiet producer – lots of assists but also lots of moves that maybe seem small and don’t result in points – and that makes him lower on people’s radar. Of course, McDavid has always been “The Next One” and Matthews being in Toronto, there’s a lot of hype there. But I think just the fact that Eichel is that quieter leader sometimes leaves him off people’s radar. I think he’s been a great fit for this team, he seems genuinely invested in the present and the future.

 

Game #52 Preview Suite

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Douchebag Du Jour

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Everything Else

If you didn’t realize this was Rasmus Ristolainen’s sixth season in the NHL, we’d forgive you. The Sabres have been an afterthought for so long now, if you keep up-to-date on their roster besides Jack Eichel and like, two other dudes, you’ll be making statements about yourself you’re not going to want to revisit. And also the noise about Ristolainen has died down now that the Sabres have a real d-man in town.

Because the thing with Rasmus The First is that despite the proclamations and protestations of Sabres fans (and boy are they surprisingly loud), Ristolainen has always blown chunks. While his consistent settling in the 40s for points in a season is fine, his metrics would clear a large room.

In terms of simple possession, he’s always been significantly behind the team rate, and it only gets worse when it comes to scoring chances and high-danger ones at that. Only last year was he above water in Corsi and scoring-chances. Even now, with greater protection provided by Rasmus The Second, or Rasmus The Greater, Risto can’t seem to make it all work.

Sabres fans for years tried to sell everyone on Rasmus The Lesser. First it was because it was so young. Then it was because he was playing on an inept team. Then it was because he was overburdened. He’s out of excuses now. And it would behoove the Sabres to try and cash in on his name this summer to free up some more money to throw at a prize free agent, as they will always have to overpay to get someone to want to be in Buffalo.

At least with the arrival of Rasmus The Greater, we no longer hear the bleating from Sabres Nation about the other one. He’s just scenery now, which is what he’s always been. It’s just that finally, Sabres fans are ready to accept that.

 

Game #52 Preview Suite

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Douchebag Du Jour

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Lineups & How Teams Were Built

Everything Else

Notes: Ward gets the start tonight, with Delia getting the start tomorrow in Minny. You could argue that the Minny game is the more important, as in the Hawks’ mind the Wild are a team they’re trying to catch. Didn’t say it made much sense…Forsling was activated but wouldn’t appear he would play tonight. You’ll get your Forsling fix soon enough, whether you like it or not…Kampf and Saad have been a great combo when used, and we’d like to see more of it…Dahlstrom has been demoted, we think, but what Murphy is going to do with Koekkoek we have no idea…

Notes: Ullmark has been better of late than Hutton but the latter gets the start…Beaulieu might be a scratch for Pilut with Scandella…Eichel only has one goal in his last nine…Skinner only has one goal in his last five…Okposo can’t throw a grape in the ocean right now…this is one line but it’s a hard line to keep down…

 

Game #52 Preview Suite

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It’s not a huge surprise to hear that the Hawks will go to Duncan Keith and give him the choice of whether to stay or go at the trade deadline. On the surface, the reasons are pretty clear.

One, Keith has seemed the most fed up with what’s going on. You can tell by his postgame comments in the press and the like. Second, while he’s declined at a slower rate than his longtime partner Brent Seabrook, he’s also far less likely to regain any prominent place on a contending team than the two forwards who are pillars. At best, he can probably be a second-pairing d-man? It would need an adjustment in his game, which we’ve pontificated on enough already. Third, he probably still has some value, as his play hasn’t totally erased the weight his name would carry, like good ol’ Bottomless Pete. Fourth, his cap-hit is absorbable for a team and his actual salary even more so.

So it all adds up in those senses. But look any deeper, and the whole thing stinks.

One, while Keith has some value, if you’re going to cash in on one of your “core four” to get the most back, you’d add 86 to the number of the player you’d trade and make it Patrick Kane. He by far has the most value, and even though you probably couldn’t do any better than 75 cents on the dollar in a deal for him, that’s still more than you’re going to get for Keith. But for one, Kane is still a top-ten to top-five player in the league, and may stay that way for a year or two or three, and could be here when the Hawks are actually useful again. Second, Kane, rightly or wrongly (wrongly) is still one-half of the marketing campaign. He’s on the Chevy ads. He’s on the billboards. He’s on the local and national TV promos. Keith is still essentially flipping everyone the bird.

And it also seems like more wheel-posing to not have to simply scratch Brent Seabrook regularly, or eat half his salary while shipping him off for absolutely nothing. So was demoting Henri Jokiharju. Seabrook doesn’t belong on their top-six, and yet the Hawks can’t admit it. And moving Keith would clear some of the logjam that’s coming next year, though they would still have a Seabrook discussion then. And it’s also a tip that the Hawks don’t really want to move Erik Gustafsson, even though he’s nothing more than a third-pairing bum-slayer.

Would Keith take the chance? It’s impossible to say. Again, you get the impression he’s had it with the organization’s incompetence here, knows the clock is ticking on his career more than Seabrook, Kane, and Toews, and might not want to spend the last two or three years he has getting instructions from Coach Cool Youth Pastor. Keith says he wants to play until past age 40, but I’m not sure I buy it.

But on the other side, it’s not like he’s a free agent after the year, can try somewhere for a few months, and then decide what he wants to do. Were he to go, he would stay where he goes or end up being hot-shotted around without any control after waiving his NMC. This is the only place he’s ever known, and if he decides that this is where home is then he has every right to say he’s staying.

Jake Muzzin got the Kings essentially three lottery tickets, and I suppose with the right circumstance with the right opposing GM, Keith could get you more. A first-round pick plus would sure be nice. But who else is looking for a second-pairing d-man for the run-in? Calgary to pair with Hamonic? Could you pry one of their kids loose in Kylington or Andersson? Would they try and stick you with Hanifin instead? We know that Western Canada would have the most appeal.

The Sharks don’t need him. The Hawks aren’t trading him in the division, and the Preds and Jets seems set anyway. The Avs have a need, if the Hawks got over their Central residence. I would argue the Lightning could use some buffeting on the blue line, but they wouldn’t. Bruins? Pens? We can keep going.

Putting it on Keith is a half-answer. If you’re rebuilding, then go all-in and make everyone available. If you’re trying to jettison what you believe to be flotsam, then make Seabrook first on the chopping block. It’s not that it doesn’t make some sense, because it does. It just doesn’t make total.

Everything Else

Today, hockey Twitter responded with justified derision of Pierre McGuire mansplaining hockey to two-time Olympic medalist Kendall Coyne Schofield during her broadcast debut on Wednesday Night Hockey. Coyne responded brilliantly, with the calmness and confidence of someone who knows their shit, and McGuire…well, he didn’t exactly apologize so much as get in the ballpark of, “everyone called me out for being an ass, whoops.” And as most women are all too well aware, often that’s the best you’re going to get in terms of an apology.

And now, there’s the inevitable Twitter backlash of men who can’t believe an incident like this would be put in gendered terms and are horrified—HORRIFIED—that a man’s behavior or words could be criticized in such a way or shown back to him as an example of being foolish. It’s depressingly familiar, but I’ve got good news, guys: only YOU can prevent mansplaining sports! Here’s how:

1. Don’t defend Pierre McGuire. Let’s start with this immediate situation because I’m getting pissed with this backlash. Yes, McGuire says dumb shit to everyone every day. It’s literally what he does for a living—spout off dumb bullshit about the record a guy had as a Bantam in some bumblefuck Canadian backwater. But just because he does that doesn’t mean that THIS dumb shit is no big deal. He was an asshat to a woman eminently qualified to be taking the career step she was taking. Being a condescending dipshit in this very public forum isn’t wiped away just because he’s normally irritating and full of useless information and likely grossly overpaid for it. Accept that, and move on.

2. Women understand sports. Now to get a little broader in the mansplaining realm…You may have read that statement and thought, “Of course women understand sports!” Congratulations, you’re in a small minority of dudes! You may not believe me, and you may know other dudes who discuss sports with women, watch sports with women, etc. But as an actual woman who discusses/watches/follows sports I can tell you in no uncertain terms that the vast majority of guys out there do not understand that we understand sports. Period.

A lot of this comes from embedded cultural attitudes that take a really long time to change (read, calm the fuck down, just hear me out). Girls are discouraged from being “tomboys” and are bombarded with overtly feminine toys, imagery, and anything colored pink literally from before we exit the womb. You can scoff, but this means that boys are taught to talk to each other about sports and play sports together, and that by and large, girls are still in a transition to a time and place where sports and athleticism are viewed as equally valuable in them as they are in boys. It’s changing, yes, but it’s a slow process and for those of us older than just reaching voting age, this was a much less prevalent mindset when we were growing up.

What does this mean? It means it’s tough to overcome that hard coding of “TALK SPORTS WITH DUDES” attitude that’s been drilled into you since childhood. It means that when you take a date to a game, you may assume she doesn’t know what the lines on the court are for, or why a batter bunts, or why anything is happening in a certain way. It means that when women describe why a zone entry failed, or why a screen pass was a terrible play call on a third and long, or how a pitcher didn’t keep his fastball down, you’re more likely to stare blankly than you are to respond thoughtfully, because you can’t compute that a woman just said that.

If you want to avoid mansplaining, you have to start from the premise that a woman—whoever it is, a rando, someone you know, whoever—understands the basics of the sport taking place in front of her, whether live or on TV. She may not be an expert, but then again, she might be. You probably don’t know for sure (and if you do know, like McGuire did with Coyne, you’re a fucking moron), so operate from a place of respect. Sports permeate our culture and more girls than ever are playing, so it lowers your chances of making an ass of yourself if you assume knowledge, not ignorance, in your female friends, relative, colleagues, and fellow bar patrons.

3. Would you say that to a guy? And that brings us to the other side of that gender stereotype situation I described. It’s true: a lot of women don’t follow sports. No one is more painfully aware of this than me because honestly, I’ve only had a handful of female friends who enjoy watching major sports. A lot of that is thanks to a lack of interest, a lot stems from those same attitudes and behaviors hard-wired when we were kids. They reinforce each other.

So I get it, maybe a woman in your life really doesn’t understand why a third down is nerve-wracking, or why one hockey team has fewer guys on the ice for a time. When that happens and you go to open your mouth, ask yourself: Would I say this to a guy? Would Pierre have ever told Mike Milbury which benches the Lighting and Penguins were on? No. If your “explanation” to a woman is not the same as what you’d say to a dude who isn’t familiar with the sport at hand, you’re mansplaining. Full stop.

And that’s the thing—when #notallmen dudes get all up in arms and when Twitter backlashers get all self-righteous, they’re overlooking the key thing feminists want: to be treated equally The actual definition of feminism is the belief that men and women are equal. All other connotations are the result of misogynists creating false interpretations to justify their actions and attitudes. Yes, it is. (Come at me, I stand by this.)

So if you speak to a woman about sports the same way you’d speak to a guy about it, you won’t be mansplaining. You won’t be speaking with the inherent condescension of a response tailored for an audience you assume is unfamiliar (well, maybe you will be if you’re a condescending jerk to start with). Instead, you’ll be providing information like a normal human being. If you get technical and your female listener doesn’t understand, she’ll do the same thing a guy will: ask a follow-up question. And then what you have is a conversation, maybe even an opening of a common area of interest. But if you dumb down an answer (or an unsolicited statement) simply because you’re talking to a woman, you automatically sound foolish.

Because here’s the kicker—you probably aren’t that much of an expert, either. I’ve had guys plead for me to “make her understand football” in reference to their wife or girlfriend. (I field this question a lot but we’ll keep this example to football, far and away the biggest source of these requests.) My response is: explain to her the system of downs. When she understands the system of downs, the game makes sense, and she’ll understand what’s going on, why it’s exciting, all of it. I’ve given this advice more times than I can count. And without fail, the male friend or acquaintance gets a blank look, mumbles something, and walks away. Every. Single. Time. Know why? Because they don’t understand the system of downs. Or at the very least, they have no idea how to describe it.

So dumbing down strategy or play calling for a woman may seem easy, but would you phrase it that way to another man? No, because it would be obvious to him that you’re bullshitting and didn’t know what you were talking about. Guess what? It’s obvious to women too.

Like so much else between us all, when it comes to talking sports, be yourself. Don’t change what you would say based on the audience. Answer honestly about what you know, and be truthful about what you don’t know. Start from a place of trust, and believe this person may know more than you expected, despite having a vagina. Because we’re gonna figure you out either way.

Everything Else

It’s been a banner morning for Hawks and hockey fans, which is ironic because the next time this team raises a banner, we will all be dead from exploding heart syndrome. Before we jump into the meat that is Jokiharju’s demotion, I’d like to give a gigantic FUCK YOU to Pierre McGuire for proving yet again that no matter how terrible you are at everything you’ve ever done professionally, if you’re old, white, and know a few people, you too can be an enormous, bloviating, pontificating asshole on national television and get paid millions to do it. The horseshit he pulled on Coyne Schofield last night is a microcosm of why the NHL continues to be a toilet-tier league. The NHL is for everyone, unless you’re a woman, gay, of color, or end up with a head injury.

Now, let’s talk about the move our resident Brain Geniouses made this morning. Henri Jokiharju was sent down to the AHL on the eve of the end of break. As if the terror of this sideways turd of a hockey team having to play games again wasn’t enough to drive us all insane, we now get to watch as supreme talents like Slater Koekkoek, Carl Dahlstrom, Gustav Forsling, Dun-I-Can’t-Find-A-Fuck-To-Give Keith, and Bottomless Pete, nature’s cruelest mistake, continue to push Collin Delia farther into leather-working as a full-time career.

There’s an argument to be made that moving Jokiharju down is a chance to showcase other players as the trade deadline approaches. I am not going to make that argument, because it’s bonafide, Grade-A horseshit. Here’s the list of players that will now have a chance to play over Jokiharju:

Duncan Keith (Full NMC)

Brent Seabrook (Full NMC)

Connor Murphy (One of the Hawks’s two best D-men this year)

Erik Gustafsson (A forward playing defense)

Slater Koekkoek (Sucks deep pond scum)

Carl Dahlstrom (Played OK for 10 games once)

Gustav Forsling (Sucks)

Jokiharju has been playing alongside those top four guys since the beginning, so there’s no reason to send him down to showcase those four. Keith and Seabrook aren’t going anywhere, as Self-Proclaimed Marketing Genius John McDonough continues to insult the intelligence of Hawks fans by implying that they want to pay money to watch legends make them forget how good they once were. Trading Connor Murphy should be considered malfeasance, as he’s been one of the Hawks’s two passable D-men, is still young, and isn’t an anchor on the salary cap. If the Kings can get a first for Muzzin, the Hawks should expect to get at least a second for Gustafsson, but even if you could, can you really see this fucking team pulling the trigger on that with the power play being as effective as it is with him on it?

So that leaves you with a showcase of Koekkoek, who just got traded for Jan Rutta; Carl Dahlstrom, who is about as much of “a guy” as you can be; and Gustav Forsling, who’s basically Erik Gustafsson without any of the offensive output. At best, you’ll get a low pick (think 6th or 7th round) for any of these guys. Stunting Jokiharju’s development by putting him in a league he’s outgrown (yet again) is worth a low draft pick. Fucking wonderful.

It would be one thing if Jokiharju were actually struggling in the NHL, like these water carriers want you to believe. But he really hasn’t. He leads the Hawks with a CF% Rel of 5.5. He leads the Hawks with a 54.1 CF%. Despite the constant jerking around, he’s posted 12 points in 37 games, which ranks him sixth among all NHL rookie D-men for points and fifth among rookie D-men in points per game (minimum 20 games).

When playing on his correct side, his possession numbers are strong: 53+ with Keith, 54+ with Gus, 72 with Murphy (small sample size with Murphy). It wasn’t until the Born on Third Bunch decided to put him on his off side with the worst defenseman the Hawks have—after sending him back to Finland against his will to beat up on a bunch of children he’s already beaten up on before—that his numbers came crashing down. In the limited time he played with Sbarro, Harju had a 36 CF% with Seabrook and a 54+ away from him. This isn’t news: Of all active Hawks defensemen, everyone except Dahlstrom has had better possession numbers away from Seabrook. Just look!

This is the most frustrating part about the demotion. You can showcase the water balloons filled with diarrhea that are Koekkoek, Forsling, and Dahlstrom without demoting Harju BY SCRATCHING THE WORST DEFENSEMAN YOU HAVE. For all those high-falutin degrees Bowman and McDonough are always latently reminding you about (fuck Notre Dame at all levels for all time), that they don’t understand how a fucking sunk cost works is absolutely mind boggling. And as always, kiss my ass with any appeals to “asses in seats.”

Who could have ever imagined that Joel Quenneville—a man whom we’ve all dumped on for not giving young guys a fair shake—would be the one who handled Harju the best? Sending him to Finland was bone-headed, but this is the kind of galaxy brain shit that, had any other team done it, we would giggle at and ask, “Maybe those idiots will take [insert garbage player here] off our hands next.”

The Hawks have nothing to showcase that requires Harju’s demotion. Nothing. Anyone whom they can realistically showcase has already been playing concurrently with Harju. This demotion is simple cowardice. Colliton, Bowman, McDonough: Whoever is making the lineup decisions is too cowardly to tell Brent Seabrook, “We are scratching you because you do not give us the best chance to win.” Because after all, that’s all they’ve been talking about since the beginning of the season: They expect to win, they expect to be a playoff team, they expect to pull within .500, they expect to scratch for every single point.

Demoting one of your top two defensemen is not how you do any of that. All it does is fuck up the development of a 19-year-old part of the future who had the audacity to play fairly well when given the chance. He’s no Rasmus Dahlin, but no one asked him to be that. All we ask is that you give him 20 minutes a night (he’s averaged about 17 since Colliton took over and about 14 since coming back from Finland) and play him with someone, anyone, who complements his puck-moving, strong-vision style.

Instead, they’re sending him down to a league where the only thing he’ll learn is that the AHL is rife with guys who, five years from now, will specialize in getting kicked out of bars for poking strangers and screaming “I PLAYED PROFESSIONAL HOCKEY” before headbutting them when they say, “Sir, I don’t know who you are please stop harassing me.”

My, my what a mess we’ve made.

Everything Else

One of the last remaining aspects of this Blackhawks season worth giving a damn about is the play and development of Collin Delia, who has worked himself into the conversation as the potential Corey Crawford heir. Were that prospect to come to fruition, it would be a rare bright spot in this season and carry the potential to accelerate the Hawks’ eventual return to relevance, even if they end up missing out on Jack Hughes, Kaapo Kakko, and/or Erik Karlsson in June.

It’s no secret and certainly not difficult to see that the NHL has become a goalie’s league, even moreso than the NFL is a quarterback league. It’ll never get proper recognition, and hockey playing 4th fiddle in the US will play a major role, but at this point NHL goalie has become the most important position in sports. Sure, quarterbacks get the praise and attention, but NFL teams can have success even with below average or even bad quarterbacks – The Ravens and Cowboys won their divisions on the strengths of their defenses this past season, and some would make the case our beloved Bears fall in here, too.

Of course in the NHL it’s possible to make the playoffs without an elite netminder, but that’s just cuz more than half the league makes the playoffs. No one goes anywhere come April without top level goaltending. Look at the top-4 from last year: Braden Holtby, Marc-Andre Fleury, Andre Vasilevski, and Connor Hellebyuck. That’s a top-3 goalie, a Cup winner, and two of the best goalie prospects from past few years who were finally coming into their own.

So that brings us back to our Irish Boy, who has only played 10 games so far and has been equal parts incredible and terrible at time. Look no further than that mid-day game two Sundays ago against the Capitals – he made at least one save he shouldn’t have, probably two or three or more you didn’t think he would, and was mostly solid throughout. But if you had just watched the goals he gave up, particularly the first two, you would’ve wondered how his ass didn’t get pulled.

His numbers tell an encouraging story – he’s got a .936 save percentage at 5v5, which is good enough for 8th among NHL goalies with 300 minutes played in the situation (Natural Stat Trick doesn’t let me do games played). He’s also got a crazy .927 shorthanded, which is really something behind that PK unit. That’s second-best in the damn league. Add in that he’s managed not to royally screw up when the Hawks are on the PP and you have his .923 overall, which is good. Even along with that, he’s got a GAA of 3.00 because the Hawks blue line is a mess.

Obviously all of that comes with a rather large grain of salt given that he’s played just 10 games. There’s a lot more to be shown here, but the early returns are clearly encouraging. The question is if it is going to end up meaning anything.

I wrote last week about how I still think the Hawks should go about tanking in whatever fashion they can (though it won’t look exactly like a tank given what they have to sell off), and touched on how Delia represents a really hard Catch-22 situation. He’s unlikely to be able to keep playing at the pace he’s been at so far this year without some good fortune, but assuming he does so there’s a good chance he could ruin your shot at Hughes. If he does that and ultimately proves that’s who is, it’s fine. If he does that and next year comes crashing back to earth, you’re still in a precarious spot.

Meanwhile, if he crashed back to earth and you get Hughes, that’s fine, but would it result in the Hawks abandoning hope on him being the franchise goalie? I’m inclined to believe they’d have more perspective, but I definitely don’t put it beyond a desperate Stan Bowman to make a rash decision like that given that his ass could be on the line next year. So if he really does have that top level ceiling and they give up on him, even if you have Hughes you are still in a precarious spot.

That being said, Delia does have a 3.00 GAA even with all those impressive save rates, and that’s because this team is ass. So, it’s possible he could still play well and this team could still be in pits of the standings come late March, and we have the best of both worlds.

In the end, the answer to the whether or not Collin Delia is the real thing is not going to be found this season. But he’s off to a good start and how the year winds down for him will be telling, and provide something for us to keep an eye on heading into next season. We just need the Hawks to not screw this up. What could go wrong?

Everything Else

A few weeks back I wrote about how Corey Crawford should retire in light of his latest concussion. I still believe what I said in that piece, and with the accomplishments he’s racked up and what we know about the effects of multiple head traumas, it seems unnecessarily risky for him to return to playing a contact sport.

But much to everyone’s surprise, including mine, Crawford has been skating and working out with Jimmy Waite so a return this season certainly seems possible. And regardless of what I think, at the end of the day I’m just a fan with an opinion, as far removed from the inner workings of the team and as giardiniera-soaked as everyone else (possible more so—I have literally made a scene when actual giardiniera was unavailable in a sandwich place. I’m a peach).

So if Crawford chooses to return to the lineup, the Hawks will obviously play him as their starter, which they would be foolish not to. What would that mean for the team and the season? Let’s examine what should happen (based solely on how I would like things to turn out), and what will happen (based on cruel realism). Shall we?

Goaltending & Defense

What should happen: Crawford returns to his Vezina-quality form and plays obnoxiously well, turning the end of the season into a punctuation mark on how he’s one of the best and most underrated goaltenders in the league and has been for a damn good stretch of time. The blue line as a whole dials up its give-a-shit meter as a way to offer him additional protection, and they reverse the depressing trend of defensive play that’s left them league-worst in both scoring chances given up and high-danger chances given up. The Hawks finish the season out of the playoffs, but out of the basement as well.

What will happen: Crawford comes back and his performance will be middling, similar to where he was when he got hurt in mid-December. Some periods and some nights, he’ll be the Crow of old and be lights out; other times he’ll be human and not be able to win the game on his own, and he won’t make saves that he once would have. His save percentage will hover somewhere in the low nine-hundreds, probably around .905, as the Hawks’ awful defense strands him with 40 SOG a night. Their inability to handle Colliton’s man defensive scheme will leave guys with all day in the slot and around the crease taking those high-percentage shots. The Hawks finish the season in the basement.

Roster Moves

What should happen: The front office convinces Cam Ward to waive his no-movement clause and they trade him for a bag of pucks. If Bowman found GMs dumb enough to take Manning and Rutta off our hands, you gotta believe he can unload an experienced back-up goaltender who has only been a partial dumpster fire. Then, Collin Delia stays up with the top club and handles a little more than typical back-up duties, maybe close to splitting the remaining 31 games with Crawford (think a 17-14 split, Crawford-Delia).

This way, Delia continues to play at the NHL level and we have a relatively reliable alternative for any time Crawford throws out a turd for the night, or whenever he just needs a couple days to rest. The season is fucked anyway, so it’s not like we need a hot hand to have momentum going into the playoffs. Let Delia learn and improve while Crawford has extra support.

What will happen: One of two things will happen, thanks to the organization’s brain geniuses—either Delia will get sent to Rockford or he and Ward will switch off being healthy scratches. The former wouldn’t be completely terrible because at least Delia would be playing nearly every night. Granted, the Ice Hogs suck too and probably won’t make the Calder Cup playoffs, plus the AHL is goonville and I honestly fear for the safety of anyone playing in that league. But it would be better than the latter option of the Hawks keeping Ward and Delia here, and wasting a roster spot that could go to a young forward currently in Rockford.

And it would all be because they gave Ward a stupid contract. I couldn’t even blame Ward if he chose not to waive his NMC…that’s just looking out for his own interests and you can’t fault a guy for that. But it would be another glaring example of contract incompetence, as Delia would only get to play maybe six or seven more games, and when he’s rusty and not progressing, gets sent back to the press box where no one ever became a better hockey player, and/or has shattered confidence. It would spell the beginning of the end for him here.

Overall

What should happen: Crawford should retire and protect his future health, which will also allow the Hawks to limp to the finish line with an overpriced back-up and a youngster who learns to be an NHL-caliber goalie or proves he isn’t one. The front office makes moves accordingly in the offseason to address whatever situation they have with Delia, and whatever implications that carries for the rest of the roster.

What will happen: Crawford comes back at a level far below what we’re used to, and the coaching staff is put between the proverbial rock and a hard place with the roster. This bizarre ménage a trois becomes yet another depressing storyline at the end of the season, as everyone ponders what to do to get out of it.