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Game #66 – Hawks vs. Sharks Q&A: A Creature Of The Night

By Sam Fels March 3, 2019 1589 0

You know those people that you only see at punk shows? Like you never run into them at the store or on the street? You don’t know where they come from? That’s @ItWasThreeZero. He’s our Sharks guy.

Did the Sharks err by not getting a goalie at the deadline? Martin Jones‘s playoff record is stout but this regular season has been awfully bad…

There’s no question that goaltending has been the Sharks’ Achilles heel this season. Frankly it defies logic that the Sharks have the fourth-best record in the league while ranking dead last in both overall and 5v5 SV%. In fairness to Martin Jones (and Aaron Dell), the team adopted a high-risk, high-reward style of play this season that would deflate any goalie’s numbers. System changes alone don’t explain or justify both goalies sporting sub-.900 save percentages in March though. I think the hope, both organizationally and among the fanbase, is that Jones’ playoff numbers will more closely resemble his career average of .912. That’s probably why we didn’t see them make a move at the deadline despite rumors of interest in Ryan Miller. It’s easy to envision how this team, with its elite offense, possession numbers and special teams, could make a Cup run if the goaltending can be anything close to average. But it’s hard to have any confidence in Jones pulling that off at this point.

Did you like the pickups of Nyquist?

Despite having the league’s third-best offense, the Sharks don’t have a Nikita Kucherov or Johnny Gaudreau or even a Mark Scheifele or Filip Forsberg-calibre player up front. In order to have a chance at beating the teams that do have elite forward talent they need to continue to score by committee (led, of course, by huge contributions from Burns and Karlsson on the back end). The addition of Nyquist allows the Sharks to roll out a top nine that features six players on pace for 60 or more points this season plus two others scoring at a 50-point pace. Throw in double digit goal scorers Marcus Sorensen and Melker Karlsson on the fourth line and you have arguably the best forward depth in the league that the addition of Nyquist makes even deeper.

Brent Burns is on track to blow past the 76 points that got him a Norris two years ago. Should he be in contention to get another one?

To the extent that the Norris Trophy just goes to whichever defenseman puts up the most points these days, sure. If we’re talking about whether Burns has been the best overall defenseman in the NHL this year, it’s hard to make that argument. He starts over 70% of his 5v5 shifts in the offensive zone, usually against opposing second and third lines. That’s not a knock on Burns at all – the luxury of having both Karlsson and Burns on the same blueline has allowed Peter DeBoer to deploy him in the kind of specialized offensive role he’s always been best suited for and the results speak for themselves. Burns has unquestionably been a huge part of the Sharks’ success this season but he hasn’t quite had the same all-around impact as defensemen like Mark Giordano or Morgan Rielly who aren’t far behind Burns in terms of production either.

It looks like the Sharks path is going to have to go through Vegas and Calgary to even get to Winnipeg or Nashville. Is that just too daunting for a pretty old team?

It’s a brutal road and underscores the importance of winning the Pacific Division to avoid that 2 vs. 3 matchup, a feat that may be out of the Sharks’ grasp at this point depending on the health of Erik Karlsson. This is, at least on paper, the best roster in franchise history though. And while the Sharks’ average age might be a little high, key players like Karlsson, Hertl, Kane, Couture and Meier are at least theoretically still in their respective primes and it’s not like age has slowed Burns or Pavelski down significantly either. They should be good enough to beat Vegas and Calgary if they can get anything resembling average goaltending. If last year’s Capitals can win the Cup after running the gauntlet of Columbus, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay there’s no reason this Sharks roster can’t pull off a similar achievement.

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Game #66 – Hawks vs. Sharks Douchebag Du Jour: Michael Haley, Pete DeBoer, And Putting Truck Nuts On Your Porsche

By Sam Fels March 3, 2019 2007 0

You probably missed it last week. It wasn’t a transaction to move the needle. But for some reason, the Sharks brought back Michael Haley off of waivers from Florida. Getting waved by the Panthers should tell you all you need to know, especially given how Dale Tallon likes himself a muttonhead.

And make no mistake, Haley is drain-clog. He amassed 200 penalty minutes last year in Sunrise, which did so much protecting of their stars they missed the playoffs again. He can’t do anything but spit and yell, and occasionally fight when someone is dumb enough to engage him. He is an old-style goon, and one the Sharks have no need of.

And yet claim him they did, because Pete DeBoer–who aside from Martin Jones might be the biggest impediment to the Sharks winning a Cup–thinks he needs this. Who on this roster is he protecting? Logan Couture and Joe Pavelski aren’t shrinking violets. Timo Meier is a pest himself and was doing just fine. Erik Karlsson is hurt anyway, and you never bring in a bouncer for a d-man anyway.

Haley and his dumb haircut and even dumber attitude will be relegated to the pressbox when the real games start, but it’s a mystery why the Sharks though they needed this in games that are supposedly important if they were going to catch the Flames. Haley’s presence hasn’t stopped the Sharks from getting thwacked in three of the four games he’s dressed for, so that’s going well.

Maybe it’s not the goalies the Sharks need to change before the playoffs…

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Game #66 – Hawks vs. Sharks: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

By Sam Fels March 3, 2019 1123 0

Still working on it. Data here:

Team	GF_60	GA_60	GF%	xGF_60	xGA_60	xGF%	SF_60	SA_60	SF%	CF_60	CA_60	CF%
CHI	2.74	3.12	46.76%	2.28	2.91	43.93%	31.04	34.79	47.15%	55.37	59.87	48.05%
S.J	2.97	2.78	51.65%	2.79	2.34	54.39%	32.93	26.88	55.06%	63.57	50.87	55.55%

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Game #66 – Hawks vs. Sharks: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels March 3, 2019 1340 0

Notes: Please, for the love of God, shoot Gustav Forsling into the sun….Ward will get the start. Last time he saw the Sharks it did not go so well…If the Hawks aren’t going to get goals from their loaded top line, they’re going to lose…Perlini can’t do anything but be fast and shoot, but that should be enough, right?…Colliton was shuffling all over the place yesterday, had great effect as you could tell…

Notes: Couple injuries to note. Karlsson definitely won’t play and very well might be put in cotton wool until the playoffs. Evander Kane missed the last game and is questionable, but they don’t need him for this, do they?…Vlasic’s metrics are ugly but he’s doing all of the dirty work to keep Burns in the offensive end and against bums…Pavelski has 11 points in his last eight games…Hertil has only scored one in his last eight…

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Game #65 – Hawks 3, Kings 6 – Facts Just Twist the Truth Around

By Rose Rankin March 2, 2019 2289 0

I wish that I could at least tell you that the number of goals meant this was an exciting game—that it was a high-flying game reminiscent of the halcyon days between these two teams that really wasn’t all that long ago. But I can’t tell you that. This was a shitty game played by two shitty teams. The score was as high as it was because both teams have awful defenses and goalies who are a shadow of who they once were (it hurts, it’s not necessarily true every night but today it was).

The Hawks did their best to give the game away by squandering any and every opportunity, and the Kings had a mixture of bad luck and incompetence to keep things ugly, but they managed to look like they actually cared about winning this one. Let’s do the bullets…

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

–The Hawks did that thing where they have a downright terrible start and have to play from behind. It’s been a little while since the busted out their now-classic down-by-two-goals-less-than-five-minutes-in shtick, but we got to see it here today. Two dumbass penalties right away—one being by Dylan Strome which kills me because you know I love that guy and here he goes and has a stupid trip—and the otherwise-useless Dustin Brown and Sean Walker both scored. The third goal by Ilya Kovalchuk was the first one of the day that Crawford really should have had (it would not be the last). Seabrook’s ass saving a goal and Brandon Perlini’s goal at the end of the first were the only things that kept it mildly close. And this is despite the Hawks leading in possession (58 CF% all situations) and leading in shots (15-11). Hockey is weird and sometimes numbers don’t tell the whole story.

–Wow, was the defense bad today. I mean, we all know they’re bad, but let me share with you some actual things that happened: Slater Koekkoek got burned by Dustin Brown and then screened Corey Crawford, directly helping both of the Kings’ first goals. Keith and Seabrook did a “you get it, no YOU get it” routine as they both literally watched the puck slide between them in the defensive zone. Gustav Forsling was looking to move the puck out of the defensive zone and had a wide open neutral zone, save one body in his field of vision—he managed to doink the puck off that one body leading to a turnover. Forsling later got swatted aside by Anze Kopitar which led immediately to the Kings’ fifth goal, which was the dagger in the game.

Oh yeah, and Nachos’s ass blocked literally half the net and saved a goal in the first period which, despite all the guffawing from Pat and Eddie, was actually terrible because it never should have happened. Seabrook’s ass was facing the shot because he had fallen down and was half in the net facing away from the play, and Keith got smoked by Trevor Lewis who sailed right in and had the scoring chance. Again, numbers don’t tell today’s story. Every Hawks defenseman was well above water in possession but they came nowhere near passing the eye test.

–Slater Koekkoek and Gustav Forsling were particularly egregious. In addition to the two fuck-ups that basically assisted on the first two Kings goals, our current favorite punching bag Koekkoek waved his stick inconsequentially in a passing lane doing absolutely nothing to prevent Kempe from scoring, after Jonathan Toews simply gave up. That goal was on Toews as well, no doubt, but Koekkoek was all-around terrible except for his one assist, which was really thanks to Strome (more on that later). Forsling’s dire performance behind the net on Brendan Leipsic‘s goal was painful to watch.

—Crawford wasn’t very good today, we have to just say it. One would think that if they weren’t playing an actual good team tomorrow night, CCYP may have pulled him after the third goal in the first period. Maybe not, because that wouldn’t have helped his confidence in any way, I would think. But regardless, his .760 SV% wasn’t even mediocre; it was wretched when you consider the opposition and the fact that the Hawks only gave up 25 shots.

–A small bright spot: Dylan Strome is still generally good, dumbass penalty notwithstanding. On Perlini’s first goal, Strome “hustled” to save icing (I use quotation marks because it was the slowest, most awkward hustling I’ve ever seen, but whatever I can barely even skate), and patiently held onto the puck below the goal line until Koekkoek got off the bench and into the zone, who then passed it to Perlini. Strome was by no means perfect, but hey I gotta find something, right?

–Brendon Perlini had two goals…had to be the best game of his life and it was totally wasted and useless.

–Dylan Sikura had a nice scoring chance midway through the third that Quick stopped and I’m starting to believe he will never score in a Hawks sweater. Cue the Beavis and Butthead reference.

OK, I’m exhausted from this game. From watching it, from writing about it, everything, I just really need a stiff drink. The Hawks just got beat by the worst team in the conference with a 10-game losing streak. They lost despite not giving up 40+ shots, as is their wont, and despite having significantly better possession the entire game. Despite all logic and references to this as a “must-win,” and now it’s on to a game against the league’s elite. Eat Arby’s.

Photo credit: NHL.com

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Game #65 – Hawks vs. Kings Preview, Demo Ski Rental – Modern Day Catastrophists

By Matt McClure March 2, 2019 1672 0

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RECORDS: Hawks 27-28-9 Kings 23-33-8

PUCK DROP: 3:00PM CST
TV/RADIO: NBC Sports Chicago, NHL Network, WGN-AM 720
PLEASE NO MORE CALIFORNIA SONGS: JFTC

How the mighty have fallen. It’s a cliche, but given the matchup between these two former titans, it’s applicable. And while the Hawks are threatening to make a useless playoff appearance this year as the Kings did the previous season, the opponent they find for themselves today has no such delusions of grandeur.

At the start of today’s games, the Kings find themselves with the second worst point total in the league, and dead last in the Western Conference, with only the fetid corpse of the Ottawa Senators providing the buffer between them and the dirt. The problems for this team has remained constant even coming from the salad days, where their team offense is 30th in the league, but only this time there hasn’t been any defense and goaltending to bail them out. Age and workload and everything else has caught up with Jonathan Quick, whose .891 overall save percentage (.905 at evens) wouldn’t even be good enough on a team that boasted some high octane offense on occasion, and he need look no further than the squad in white today as proof of that. Quick is now 33, and his contract will take him until he’s 37, so if this is the rate of decline that Rob Blake and the Kings are going to have to live with, it’s not going to get any better anytime soon. But rest assured, despite Rob Blake not being able to make a solid transaction to save his life, much like he couldn’t ably perform any of his other post playing career duties, he’ll somehow manage to get promoted to executive VP or some shit, because that’s just what happens to Rob Blake.

In front of Quick the Kings’ blue line is still anchored by accused rapist Drew Doughty, whose play has also completely fallen off the table. While he’s still taking assignments in any and every situation as a true #1, he has not been able to flip the ice this season as in years past, and only has one goal all year for his troubles. The latter is a bit of bad luck, and now with longtime partner Jake Muzzin gone he’s dragging around Derek Forbort, but if this is the new standard with his new contract kicking in at $11 mildo per NEXT year for the maximum 8 year term, the Kings are going to have to hope he rebounds at 30, and again, ask the guy wearing the XXXXXXL #7 sweater on the other bench how well that works out. With this season lost, the Kings are not at least trying to get a look at whatever they’ve got in their barren prospect cupboard, particularly with Alec Martinez hurt, so people named Kurtis MacDermid, Sean Walker, and Matt Roy are rounding out the bottom two pairings along with the overrated corpse of Dion Phaneuf.

Up front, Anze Kopitar hasn’t been able to repeat his career year which saw him gain a Hart Trophy finalist nod primarily because no one else on the Kings was scoring last year. Well now Kopitar has backslid to what his usual numbers had been, but no one else on the Kings has picked up any of the slack. Yes, it’s completely shocking that a 36 year old Ilya Kovalchuk has been a giant floaty turd on a team going nowhere, and he also has four more years left on his deal. No one on the Kings has more than 20 goals, which is probably most shocking from Jeff Carter, but again, the miles have more than likely caught up with him. Kyle Clifford and Trevor Lewis are still here, and it’d be easy to point and laugh about being permanently attached to 4th liners, but Marcus Kruger is still getting paid fairly nicely on the other side.

As for the Men of Four Feathers, this is an absolute must-have game in regulation if they’re going to continue to delude themselves and everyone else that they’re still vying for a playoff spot. The Nuclear Option of Saad, Toews, and Garbage Dick returns with The Drake now concussed, making the Hawks’ forward group even more top heavy. But again, if they’re going to do this, it’s not going to be because John Hayden and Wide Dick Artie are going to start dominating from the third line. And given that there’s no fathomable combination of defensive pairings that are going to slow anyone down, even this Nerf gun Kings offense, there’s no reason not to lean on the proven weapons they’ve got. Any run is also going to require solid goaltending from the likely still dizzy Corey Crawford, who in all likelihood will go tomorrow night in Silicon Valley, leaving Cam Ward to hopefully not shit his pants this afternoon. It’s a big ask, but he provides veteran leadership and and big game experience so hopefully he’s up for it.

When these two played at the UC back in November the Hawks were just getting acclimated to Coach Rod Belding and the game was an unwatchable slog. According to Stan Bowman, the team is still learning his system, which apparently must be like learning Sanskrit given the on ice results in the defensive zone. While the Hawks have at least become some form of black comedic fun since then, the vultures have continued to pick at the Kings, but afternoon hockey is the great equalizer and almost always results in shitty play and shitty ice conditions, so expect the same this afternoon. Regardless of that, if this team wants to convince itself it should be playing past game 82, beating the worst team in the West is nothing short of mandatory. Let’s go Hawks.

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Game #65 – Hawks vs. Kings Spotlight: Anze Showing The Way…Yet Again

By Sam Fels March 2, 2019 1429 0

It will be impossible, and it should be. to unlink the careers of Anze Kopitar and Jonathan Toews. Kopitar came into the league one year earlier, and is one year older, but both were among the best two-way centers in the game. Both anchored two of the pillar teams in the NHL for the decade, and of course there were the two playoff series between the two for Western Conference dominance. Both have similar type games, not exactly excelling in one area but showing just below excellence in pretty much every facet. If either were excellent at anything, it was in their own end and their control of play, setting the stage for perhaps more talented teammates to do their thing.

Both had dips in their careers at the same point. Both signed huge contracts that now their fanbases bemoan and outsiders mock. And both are probably now being improperly viewed by their own teams.

Last year, at this exact point in fact (the Hawks visited the Staples Center in Game #65 last year as well), we showed the differences between Toews and Kopitar at that point. Kopitar was having a bounce-back year, which would end with his first Selke Trophy, and Toews was in the midst of something of a nightmare that had some questioning his place within the team’s future. We concluded that really, there wasn’t much difference between the two and that Kopitar was seeing the opposite side of that fickle coin known as “luck,” while Toews was still getting an unwanted view of its less generous side.

Now, the tables have turned, and they haven’t. Toews and Kopitar continue to dovetail with each other, but both have flipped their perspective on that uncaring and yet vital coin.

Toews, in some ways, is having a career renaissance. Kopitar is in the middle of a perfectly functional season, with 47 points in 63 games, playing amongst true trash. Both have seen a decline in their defensive game, though that could probably be pinned partially on the ineptitude of those around them. That’s a stiff argument to construct though, as both are right around their team-rates for any metric you want to use. This after careers soaring above those rates. No man escapes time.

The difference this year, as it was last year, is one of them is just getting more pucks to go in than the other. Except this time it’s the one in red and not the one in black benefitting. It was Kopitar last year who saw his shooting-percentage rise to 17.5%, while Toews was hearing the NBA Jam guy screaming, “CAN’T BUY A BUCKET!” all season at 9.5%. This year Toews is at 16.6%, while Kopitar has sunk back to a certainly acceptable 14.8%.

Like Kopitar last year, Toews has seen a surge in power play points to cover some of his now not-dominant even-strength work, with 31 points already. Kopitar had 42 PP points last year, with just 13 this year. Toews had 12 last year. They can’t get away from each other.

But more to the point, Kopitar’s totals and rates are probably what a team could expect from him and Toews more than Toews’s production this year. Toews is unlikely to rack up this shooting-percentage again, as the chances and attempts he’s getting don’t really stand out from the previous years. And the power play is unlikely to sizzle like this again, or at least for this long.

And what that is is solid #2 center production. To expect Toews or Kopitar to keep providing #1 production into their 30s is not quite pie-in-the-sky stuff, but it’s not far either. Only one center seems to be managing that and that’s Sidney Crosby, who is made of something else. The Hawks seem to be trying to make up for that with a cheaper option in Dylan Strome. The Kings very well may have Jack Hughes to take that responsibility. But both should recognize what they have, not what they wish to have.

The problem for the Hawks is that Strome will only be cheap for one more season, and is still a longshot to be much more than a high-end #2 if everything works out. The Kings might lose out in the lottery, and then what? With the way the league is shaping up going forward, teams will need a center capable of 85-90 points or more. Toews and Kopitar have spiked that recently, but you wouldn’t bet on them doing so again. So how do you find that when those two are taking that kind of money down? Whichever answers first are probably better set up to get back to where they once belonged.

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Game #65 – Hawks vs. Kings Q&A: Est Disparu?

By Sam Fels March 2, 2019 1882 0

This keeps happening. Our normal Kings guy has disappeared, though we guess we can understand not wanting to talk about the Kings when you don’t have to. So here’s a link to a Lisa Dillman Q&A on The Athletic that should leave you where you need to be.

Lisa Dillman Q&A

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Game #65 – Hawks vs. Kings Douchebag Du Jour: The Whining Fanbase You Never Hear About

By Sam Fels March 2, 2019 1581 0

When it comes to fanbases you identify as whiners or complainers, you usually think of Toronto and their self-flagellation. Or it used to be Detroit and how no one worshipped them to the degree they thought was reasonable (something around Egyptian king/Commodus level). Or Montreal and their need for past and meaningless glories to still be revered today.

You don’t think of Los Angeles, which only makes them bitch and moan more. You’re better off not paying attention.

A couple years ago, Kings fan kept wailing so loudly and so consistently that no one gave Drew Doughty a fair shake that voters gave him Erik Karlsson’s Norris just to get them to shut up. Last year, Kings fans used Anze Kopitar’s 92 points as a reason to announce that he should be given the award for best defensive forward, one that he hadn’t really deserved to be credited for in three or four years. Past injustices were brought up of course as an excuse to mewl even louder, and again Kopitar was given the award to get the reward of silence.

Kings fans main complaint is that no one stays up late enough to watch their games. Which ignores the fact that no one is going to stay up to watch games that are boring as shit, which the Kings have been for at least five seasons. People stay up to watch the Sharks, you’ll notice. Kings fans have tried to tell everyone that they’re actually big and rugged and that you should appreciate that they are the only ones playing hockey the “old way.” That’s a cover for being slow and dumb and bad, a main reason they suck, and also a ruse to keep you from realizing their games would constitute a war crime.

Sadly, their two Cups (that are getting pretty distant in the mirror now) gave Kings fans a platform, when before even they knew that no one should care about them. Thankfully, due to their incompetent management, bad contracts, and inflexible roster, they’ll be heading back to the black hole of obscurity before too long. Assuming they don’t get the #1 pick. If they do, they’ll start the whining about how Hughes isn’t getting Calder consideration thanks to being on the West Coast the day after the draft.

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