Everything Else

Angry at Numbers: Murphy Go Down on the Merry-Go-Round

By John Pullega 2724 0

This post is not a referendum on anyone’s play last night. Last night was a decent effort by most, muddled by the NHL’s complete refusal to clarify what its own rules are, and peppered with the missed chances, lack of finish, and poor shooting percentages that have become the norm around here. What this post aims for is to figure out why guys like Kempný and Murphy seem to get scratched for no reason that makes sense, while our favorite whipping horse gets the ice despite his performances.

If you look at just last night’s numbers, it might make sense. Seabrook had a good possession game. But he also took a confounding boarding penalty that put the Hawks 5v3. He also couldn’t chase down Sean Monahan with the goalie pulled, allowing him to slide home the dagger. But those kinds of things are exactly why having Murphy sit yesterday and Kempný sit the game before seem so frustratingly random. If either of those two had been in Seabrook’s position, either on the penalty or the Monahan goal, is there any doubt that we’d need police dogs to start the search for them?

Now, the organ-I-zation wants you to believe that Murphy was “sick” last night, which explains why Crawford isn’t currently skating, why they pulled Toews off the ice immediately after his dizzy spell in 2012, and why they aren’t mentioned in the Montador suit. Because player health has been a top priority for this organization. You know how this looks by now.

While I may be an angry man, I can also be a reasonable man. So I decided to parse out some numbers to see whether Kempný or Murphy really deserved to sit over Seabrook. I looked at a few things over the last five games to see which trends I could snuff out. These stats do not include yesterday’s game.

I looked at each player’s total time on ice and the lines he played against primarily in each of the last five games. Then I compared his CF% against just that line to his total CF% for each game. Finally, I looked at the percentage of faceoffs he took in the offensive zone during the game, and logged how many goals he was on the ice for, just for fun.

First, I looked at Kempný.

* = Got domed by the Johansen line (42+)

Looking at the first two games, the raw numbers suggest that Kempný wasn’t playing that great. His full-game possession shares were below water, despite starting in the offensive zone a vast majority of the time. During these two games (and the next game in Nashville), Kempný tended to play most of his time with some combination of Sharp/Wingels–Anisimov–Hartman, otherwise known as the Smykowski line. He did well with them in Toronto (getting crushed behind the Toews and Schmaltz lines) and horribly in Detroit.

But look at the Nashville game: Against the Turris line—which, aside from Hartnell, is usually Nashville’s second line—he posted a 57+ CF%. What dragged him down was the Johansen line, and he was far from the only Blackhawk to deal with that problem. Recall that Quenneville purposely kept Toews away from the Johansen line as much as he could on the road, and that the Johansen line had a collective 60+ CF% for the game. It’s hard to be upset about what Kempný did there, especially with the shit zone starts.

The fourth game against Vancouver was a relative rebirth. He played most of his time against Vancouver’s top line and completely skulled them. The poor zone starts had little to no effect on his possession share, as he and Murphy led all Hawks D-Men in possession. Additionally, this was a game that saw Kempný backing up DeBrincat–Toews–Duclair just about as often as he did Wingels–Anisimov–Hartman.

After that game, by far the best of the bunch, Quenneville scratched Kempný. He was on the ice for one 5v5 goal through four games.

And what of Connor Murphy, the most consistent Hawks D-Man over the last few months?

* = Faced 4th line of Komerov–Moore–Kapanen at nearly the same rate of time for a 75 CF%

^ = Got domed by the Johansen line (42+)

~ = Tkachuk–Backlund–Frolik each had a CF% of 50+ against ALL Hawks except Jurco, Gustafsson, and Seabrook

Like his partner, Murphy had a rough go of it against Toronto. The Bozak line pushed him crotch-first into the corner of an end table. But the other line he played against at about the same rate of time, the Komerov line, got slimed by Murphy, with Murphy coming out with a 75 CF% against them.

He turned it around in Detroit, pasting the Larkin line despite a huge lead. This may seem odd, since he and Kempný were paired up throughout the game, but I think there’s an explanation. While both Kempný and Murphy found themselves behind the Smykowski line most often, Murphy backed up the Schmaltz line as his secondary forward line, whereas Kempný backed up the Kampf line. Given how Q tends to use those two lines (Schmaltz’s in the offensive zone as much as possible, Kampf’s as a Kruger Lite), it might explain the difference.

Murphy fared more poorly overall against Nashville, but for the same reason as Kempný: Johansen’s line ate everyone’s lunch. And when you consider the putrid offensive zone–start rate and the opponent, that game makes more sense in terms of possession.

Like Kempný, Murphy had his best game against Vancouver. But then Calgary happened, which saw Murphy get creamed by Calgary’s 3M line to the tune of a 17+ CF%. And while the overall CF% isn’t pretty either, especially considering the decent offensive zone starts, it bears mentioning that the 3M line had at least a 50 CF% against everyone except Jurco, Gustafsson, and Seabrook.

There’s no doubt Murphy had a bad game in Calgary, but relative to the team, it’s not as bad as it seems. It’s certainly not scratch-worthy in my view, unless you’re blaming the game-tying turnover entirely on him and believe that’s a scratchable offense. That seems a bit too punitive to me, but Murphy’s been Darkness to Q’s Rick James since he got here.

He was on the ice for two 5v5 goals through five games, and was “sick” last night (OF DIS TEAM, YA KNOW WHAT I’M SAYIN’?).

And then, there was Seabrook.

* = Got buried by the Baertschi–Horvat–Boeser line (18+) and the Sedin–Sedin–Virtanen line (40)

^ = Split time against two lines.

This is where it gets frustrating, because none of Seabrook’s numbers justify sitting Kempný or Murphy over him. Against Toronto, Detroit, and Vancouver, Seabrook had decent-to-plush zone starts and garbage possession. In the one game he played the fewest minutes of any D-Man, the Hawks dominated. And if we’re going to claim that Murphy should have been scratched for Calgary’s game-tying goal (he shouldn’t have), then the goal Seabrook fell down for against apparent-future-Hall-of-Famer Brendan Gaunce ought to be grounds for banishment to the center of the sun.

Compounding this problem is that in the four games prior to Calgary, he found himself behind the Schmaltz line. And we know what happens when those guys lose the puck. So in an effort to shield him, Quenneville also managed to set him up to look foolish, which he often did.

Anyway, the first Flames game was an odd mishmash regarding whom Seabrook saw at 5v5. While he spent the most overall time against the Mangiapane (2:55)–Bennett (7:04)–Brouwer (6:19) line, he also saw a not-negligible amount of time against Gaudreau (5:06)–Monahan (4:22)–Ferland (4:49). The Johnny Hockey line also saw the most time against Keith–Oesterle by a long shot, which makes me think that any time Glen Gulutzan’s trust-fund face could chase matchups, he was sending his best at Gustafsson–Seabrook. Ironically, Seabrook held his own against Johnny Hockey & Co. better than against the Bennett Brouwer line. But over all five games, Seabrook was on the ice for five 5v5 goals.

Perhaps most damning are the WOWY numbers for these three over the last five (or four in Kempný’s case). Away from the Smykowski line, Kempný and Murphy consistently logged CF%s of 52+ to 54+.

Seabrook’s numbers with the Schmaltz line cut two ways in terms of bad. In the 31+ minutes he’s played with the Schmaltz line (with Saad on the left side), the entire regiment has had a 35+ CF%. Conversely, Gustafsson and Seabrook have a 57+ CF% away from the Schmaltz line. It’s almost like that line and that pairing don’t belong together.

And that’s not even getting into Gustafsson’s WOWY with Seabrook since he’s been called up (46+ WITH Seabrook, 58+ WITHOUT), or the fact that Gustafsson and the Schmaltz line have a 100 CF% in their four minutes away from Seabrook over the last five. That’s probably more of a sample size mirage, but it makes you wonder.

In short, it’s hard to find a statistical reason to sit Kempný or Murphy over Seabrook. It would make at least some sense to rotate Seabrook and Rutta, given their similarities in style and handedness, and since Rutta looked good by the numbers against Calgary the first time (54+ CF%). Instead, we’ll watch Q and Ulf trot Seabrook out like he’s Blood Sugar Sex Magik, even though he’s decidedly not that anymore, in the name of genius, leadership, or whatever other White Castle fart excuse they can find to justify this journey toward mediocrity in 2018.

Stats from NaturalStatTrick.com

Line rankings & positionings from dailyfaceoff.com, with cross-referencing on NaturalStatTrick

Everything Else

Game #53 Do I Believe in God? Do I Believe in Me? – Hawks 2, Flames 3

By Rose Rankin 2874 0

Box Score

Natural Stat Trick

Corsica

This was a painful one tonight. The Hawks actually played well, managing to lead in possession in all three periods and dominate in shots, and even Glass Jeff had a good night (and you know how I feel about that guy as a starter, so this should tell you something about his performance). I don’t like to scream at refs and blame bad calls because everyone gets bad calls, and it usually all comes out a wash. That wasn’t exactly the case tonight, but I’m still not going to scream. I might cry in a dark room, though. To the bullets:

–Let’s not bury the lede: the Hawks basically were unlucky/got screwed by a call on a truly bizarre play. What would have been their second goal, taking place about midway through the second period, was called back after not one but two reviews, the first from the “war room,” the second from a coach’s challenge by Calgary. Hartman and Jurco were scrambling in the crease, and while TJ Brodie was assaulting Hartman, Mike Smith lunged at him (Hartman), and in the ensuing scrum the puck managed to trickle in. It was impossible to see if it was kicked in with any kind of distinct motion, and aside from a deflection off Hartman’s glove, the puck couldn’t be seen in the mess of bodies and equipment.

This is why the call on the ice of a goal wasn’t overturned by Toronto, but Smith, knowing that Oscar season is coming up, turned in a performance that was enough to get the goal overturned the second time through. The concept of goalie interference has become a complete joke, from Bettman’s shruggy-emoji comments the other day to the nonsensical calls on the ice in various games that get stupider by the day. Nice work, NHL.

–As alcohol-consumption-inducing as that sequence turned out to be, it was precipitated by some actual quality plays at the blue line. Jurco kept the puck in the zone as he was leaving the penalty box and jumping in, and his shot started the entire process (albeit with a point-blank fuck up by Garbage Dick). Seconds later Kempny made a great keep that led to the net-front scramble. As someone used to seeing the Hawks at the blue line resemble a sieve where the holes are too large and draining spaghetti leads to maddening leakage that you’re helpless to stop, this was encouraging.

–In the end, though, it didn’t matter because what had the appearance of a goal on a high stick late in the third by Gaudreau was allowed to stand. It seemed clear if not dead certain that he tipped it with his stick above the crossbar, but it was obviously not conclusive enough for the refs so they let it stand after Q’s challenge. Kane finally dialed up his give-a-shit meter to get it to 3-2, but it was with barely five seconds left in the game (after he had missed on a couple good chances earlier), so it did nothing. Two calls went the Flames’ way tonight and the Hawks didn’t play well enough to overcome it. And now the hole they’ve dug themselves just got much, much deeper.

– The 3M line was good but didn’t dome the Toews line tonight. Through the second period they actually had a CF% at 40 and less. It wasn’t until the third period that they got above 50%. Tkachuk and Backlund combined for 5 shots so they got it together eventually, but at least they didn’t kick the shit out of everyone?

– The Fels Motherfuck almost made an appearance tonight. After we decided on this week’s podcast that Ryan Hartman basically sucks—for reasons that are not entirely his fault—he came out and played very well. Had he been credited with that crazy goal, it probably would have reached Motherfuck status. That aside, he personified the much-sought-after Annette Frontpresence on Top Cat’s power play goal in the first, and at the end of the first his Corsi was 100%. That’s right. 100%. He ended the night with an 86.4 CF%, and three shots. So all that pooh-pooing of the Saad-Hartman-Sharp line was, perhaps, premature, but they still didn’t score so maybe not. With the way this season has gone, I expect they’ll follow a solid performance tonight with an average of about a 15 CF% and trip over their own dicks to give up four goals while they’re on the ice on Thursday.

–In another test of do-you-see-this-as-half-full-or-half-empty, Seabrook was extra stupid in the second with a boarding penalty while the Hawks were already on the kill. The full-glass aspect of this was that Toews, Keith, and Rutta did a masterful job of killing the 5-on-3. Toews won a key faceoff near the end of it, Keith had a couple blocks, and Glass Jeff, bless his heart, he did what had to be done.

–Kempny and Rutta seemed like an odd pairing to me before the game, but they managed decent possession numbers (65.4 CF% and 64 CF% at evens), and overall the defense was not terrible. I’m still a little suspicious of CONNOR MURPHY’s illness being the reason he was scratched tonight, unless he was already retching yesterday and that’s why they had him paired with Tommy fucking Wingels for practice. Or more likely, being paired with a non-defenseman waste of space MADE him sick. These are the twisted conspiratorial thoughts I’m left with thanks to the team’s constant secrecy.

All the teams we’re chasing won tonight. The Wild, the Ducks, and as of this writing, the Avs were winning as well (not to mention the obvious with the Flames getting two points on us). We’ve said it nearly every game that THIS IS THE TIME and they must turn things around, but it’s starting to feel like that may not happen. Even when they played well, they just didn’t get the breaks going their way. Like Ozzie Guillen said, I’d rather be lucky than good.

Beer de jour: Vanilla Porter by Breckenridge (not usually my type of beer but this is the post-Super-Bowl dregs of my fridge).

Line of the Night: “The ref’s explanation was garbage.” —Adam Burish, describing the goalie interference call and everyone’s thoughts on the matter.

Everything Else

Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – February 6th

By Sam Fels 1280 0

First Screen Viewing

Vegas vs. Pittsburgh – 6pm

I guess it’s time we take them seriously. They’re not going anywhere. They’re going to be annoying and stay there. It’ll be quite the emotional night in The Burgh as Marc-Andre Fleury returns for the first time to see the team that replaced him. He had a major hand in two rings and played a bit part in a third. Ever see a horse cry? You will tonight. Given the speed with Vegas tries to get up and down, and how they basically took that from the Penguins, this one’s going to be frantic.

Second Screen Viewing

Wild vs. Blues – 7pm

This one concerns the Hawks, though you may have forgotten the Blues are still a team in the division given that they’ve only played that Hawks once and that was in October. The Wild are a team that has to be caught, so Hawks fans find themselves in the unusual spot of having to hope the Blues take this one in regulation before the Hawks can get their own dent in the Wild on Saturday.

Other Games

Ducks vs. Sabres – 6pm

Flyers vs. Hurricanes – 6pm

Capitals vs. Blue Jackets – 6pm

Devils vs. Senators – 6:30

Bruins vs. Red Wings – 6:30

Canucks vs. Panthers – 6:30

Coyotes vs. Jets – 7pm

Sharks vs. Avalanche – 8pm

Everything Else

Game #53 – Flames vs. Hawks Preview/Non-Stop Ho Down: How Can We Walk Amongst All These Gauntlets?

By Sam Fels 2192 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Flames 26-18-8   Hawks 24-20-8

PUCK DROP: 7:30

TV: NBCSN Chicago

SONS OF OTTO: Flamesnation.ca

The following is getting into “Jimini Jillickers!” territory, but tonight begins a crucial stretch for the Hawks. If that stretch didn’t already start last Saturday. Or after the break. Or a month ago. I’ve declared so many of these fucking things it’s impossible to keep track. The bottom line is the Hawks need to kick this pick if the last month or so of the season is going to matter. And we’ll probably say that again soon.

The Hawks get seven of the next 10 at home, except that hasn’t been a panacea for anything for them this year. Three of those home games are against teams that are with them in the Western muddle around the last playoff spot, tonight against Calgary, next week against the Ducks, and Saturday against the Wild. They basically need to take all three in regulation, plus a few others. If they don’t eat well at home over the next three weeks, then you’ll know it’s over. There’s another thing I’ve said way too often.

Apparently Joel Quenneville gets the desperation, as he’s throwing more shit at the wall in the hopes of proving his geniusness once again. “GENTLEMEN! I HAVE INVENTED….THIS LINEUP!”

It has a new 3rd/4th line, depending on your point of view, of Saad-Hartman-Sharp. I guess there’s some benefit in cloistering your three biggest disappointments altogether, and hoping the mass ennui just turns itself into a positive force. I have no idea what it’s supposed to do, though Hartman and Saad could actually do something if they had a playmaker with them to get them in space where they perform better. Sharp is not that guy, but there aren’t any other options besides Wingels or Bouma so let’s just go with this. Give them the same instructions that have made Jurco-Kampf-Vinnie Smalls successful. Just do shit and do it fast, even if Sharp isn’t capable. Let’s not complicate this.

Of course, no desperate Hawks game would be complete without Q setting up his d-pairs while fingering his own ass, so out goes Connor Murphy again for reasons no one can understand. Especially when it involves giving Jan Rutta and Brent Seabrook more time. It’s ok, not like the Flames didn’t run circles around these two just last time out! Glass Jeff gets the start and poor rebound control.

As for the Flames, they have their own work to do as they sit outside both the wildcard and Pacific playoff picture, which are both open to them. They trail both by one point, and you have to believe this team is going to haul in the Kings because they’re not really any good and the Flames should be. Yes, they have depth scoring problems, though Kris Versteeg seems to be ready to come riding in on his donkey to save the day. Because you know Steeger would ride a donkey instead of a horse. Don’t play. They have the best pairing in the West, a goalie playing pretty well, and a genuine top six. This shouldn’t be that hard but they seem intent on making it so. They’ll be the “Team No One Wants To Play (TM).”

Worth watching tonight is how cute Q gets with his matchups. The top six of the Flames simply stinkfisted the Hawks top six in Calgary, and that doesn’t leave a lot of wiggle room for Q to get both away from Monahan or Backlund. But there are going to be spots when that is necessary, because the Hawks really need this one. He did it on the road in Nashville and in theory it should be easier at home. But it’s not something he’s done a lot of lately, and we all know Rutta is going to start every shift in the d-zone against Monahan and Gaudreau because GENIUS TREE CUPZ YOU DORK!

Just kill me already.

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Game #53 – Flames vs. Hawks Spotlight: Teach Them How To Get Dougie A Norris

By Sam Fels 2046 0

If you’re number-y like we are, then you’ll come to realize that over the past two seasons, you’d be hard pressed to find a better d-man in the West than Dougie Hamilton. In fact, you could make an argument he’s been better than anyone else, even Erik Karlsson.

Over the past two years, no d-man has a better relative Corsi mark or relative expected goals percentage than Dougie Hamilton. And it would be easy to chalk that up to playing with Mark Giordano, himself deserving of Norris consideration for a long time now.

However, it’s Giordano who suffers more without Hamilton than the other way around. Last year they spent nearly 300 minutes apart. In that time, Hamilton was still a 51 CF% player. Giordano was 47%. Together they’re 56%. This year they’re at 58%, though Giordano is doing better in the odd shifts without Dougie this time around. Still, as you can see they’ve been utterly dominant together, and without them this Flames team would probably have already moved to Quebec and no one would have really cared.

What makes the Hamilton-Giordano pairing is it’s not the usual puck mover/center fielder dynamic that most teams go to. They’re kind of the same guy. Both can really skate, both like to get up the ice, and both can get back and recover themselves when they have to. They’re both all over the ice, which you’d think would leave them really open but they both are mobile enough to recover. Which makes you wonder if this isn’t how pairings will be constructed going forward, as Ryan Lambert went over yesterday on Puck Daddy talking about the Leafs.

Thanks to Giordano, it’s unlikely that Hamilton will get too much consideration. It’s the dreaded “split-vote” phenomena. One will take votes from the other, and everyone will vote for Drew Doughty just because Kings fans keep bitching. But whatever you ask of a d-man, Hamilton is doing it as well or better than everyone. It should be him and Hampus Lindholm. It will be Subban (which is fine) and Klingberg because their leading their teams in scoring.

Which makes you wonder why teams seem intent on trading him. As we all know, Boston didn’t want to sign him and shipped him off to Calgary for three draft picks, none of which have made it up yet to The Hub. Sure, the Bruins look to have recovered by there still doesn’t seem to be a Chara-succession plan and Hamilton would have been a big part of that. And the Brandon Carlo dream will end one day. Earlier this season and over the summer there were rumors flying that the Flames were looking to move him along as well. He must be a raging asshole or something.

Somehow, Hamilton is only 24 and with Giordano looking this spry the Flames look to be set for a long while at the back. If they can somehow get the plague that Travis Hamonic has become and cure T.J. Brodie, they’ll be even better off. It’s an expensive top three though, clocking in at a combined $17 million combined. This might be the reason the Flames thought about moving Dougie along. They don’t have anyone to pay yet this summer except for Mikael Backlund, but if underlying numbers are used in contract negotiations then he’s getting a raise from his $3.5 million. It’s the summer after that that could be worrisome, when Ferland and Tkachuk are up. The Flames need a rising cap, for sure. Though they’ll probably just cry poor thanks to their arena and try to use that to get the city of Calgary to pay for a new one.

Either way, whatever the Flames do this spring is probably going to be on the back of Dougie, whether they want him or not.

 

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Game #53 – Flames vs. Hawks Q&A: Mike Pfeil of HockeyGraphs And The Underworld

By Sam Fels 2706 0

Mike Pfeil is a stats-y guy at Hockeygraphs.com. He’s also a weirdo. So he’s our type of guy. Follow him @MikeFAIL. These were the questions we put to Floob on Saturday, and now Mike gets his chance. 

Last time we saw the Flames on New Year’s Eve, they were just hovering around the last playoff spot, not meeting expectations, and still waiting to take off. A month later, they’re hovering around the last playoff spot, kind of not meeting expectations, and waiting to take off. Why hasn’t it come to a boil in Calgary?
The power play for starters, something that has approached near-catastrophically disappointing levels. On one hand, you still Dave Cameron, who hasn’t been encased in concrete and tossed in the Bow River. On the other hand you have Glen “Glenny G” Gulutzan being seemingly cognizant to the folly in front of him yet not solving. There’s enough talent at forward to not play Troy Brouwer on PP yet he does it again.
Also there’s the part where they’re chokers. Some would say that’s “mental fragility” and “they don’t know how to hold a lead.” I say they’re the suckiest bunch of sucks that ever sucked.
Do we know if Glengarry Glen Gulutzan falls into the “Moron” category or “Not A Moron” category yet?
He’s a slightly-slightly-above average coach at 5v5. Most coaches and the impacting of coaching is indiscernible from others. If you look at their 5v5 systems (last year, specifically) it was an easy observation to say “Yeah, he’s definitely better than Bob Hartley.”  This year it’s weird and I think part of it comes from fan expectations, often bordering on unrealistic; some systemic changes that have hurt them, specifically in relation to how they struggle at shot suppression relative to last year; and some bets on players that haven’t worked like Michael Stone, Travis Hamonic, Brouwer (continued usage), Sam Bennett, and sub-optimal depth.
At least there’s Dougie Hamilton, right?
I fucking love that man. Well, minus the chud-ass Barstool shit he said a few weeks ago. Shout out to everyone who hates that fuck heap website. Play him at 5v4 more than any other defenseman and maybe things will improve. Seriously.
 
The Flames don’t seem to be in a position to just punt on the season given their development curve, so what might they do at the deadline? And are you afraid it’ll be stupid?
Going after Mike Hoffman or an actual top six RW scoring threat would be nice. Rick Nash would be neat on retained salary providing his acquisition cost isn’t absurd, but it’s doubtful. Maybe you can fleece Ken Holland, who might be struggling to realize what year it is and pry out a Tomas Tatar or Gustav Nyqvist for cheaper than expected? All that said I’m as afraid as others, but I’m emotionally checked out… providing they don’t acquire Zack Smith. Don’t do it.
Given that the Kings actually suck and the Ducks are weird, the Flames really should still get into the Pacific’s three playoff spots, right?
Yes, undoubtedly, providing they don’t continue shitting the bed. They’re going to shit the bed aren’t they, Sam?

 

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Game #53 – Flames vs. Hawks Douchebag Du Jour: Still An Airhorn With Stupid Hair

By Sam Fels 3170 0

This is the last chance, barring a very unlikely playoff meeting, we’ll get this year to once again rail against the “reputation” of Brian Burke. We don’t know if Burke has a lot of pull in the Flames organization anymore, or if he’s just there to make the press feel special and manly or whatever the fuck he claims to do.

Whatever it is, he got there on a wave of bullshit.

Burke’s rep is basically built on being bellicose all the time, and making old, stuffy hockey writers achieve half-tumescence for the first time in years because he talks about things like grit and fight and heart and everything that makes the same noise you do after a bathtub of chili. Burke threatens to fight other GMs of course and always talks a tough game, which leads you to believe if he was ever actually confronted he’d empty his bladder into his shorts.

Burke’s acumen is wildly overstated. While he drafted the Sedins and Ryan Kesler and traded for Roberto Luongo, the Canucks never made a conference final while he was steering that ship. And he traded for Todd Bertuzzi, which tells you just about everything you need to know.

His Cup win in Anaheim is bullshit, too. That team was already constructed when he got there, and all he had to do was take someone else’s assets and get a want-away Chris Pronger out of Edmonton. Real hard job, there. Remember, the Ducks had been in the Final just three seasons before.

And of course, he did exactly nothing with Toronto who didn’t get good until they turfed him but good. The only Burke picks that matter on the Leafs right now are Nazem Kadri and Morgan Rielly.

And let’s not even get to all the ways Burke has fist-fucked over Team USA in Russia and in the World Cup, making his 2010 squad clearly a goof when he was too drunk to pick his normal team.

All Burke basically is Bob Pulford with an ability to string more than four words together. And dumber hair. The Flames would be better off with him locked in the same room that the Hawks deposited Pully that he can’t escape.

 

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Game #53 – Flames vs. Hawks: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

By Sam Fels 1748 0

Key: CF/60 – shot attempts for per 60 minutes

CA/60 – shot attempts against per 60

CF% – ratio of shot attempts for and against

G/60, GA/60, GF% – goals scored, allowed, and ratio of per 60 minutes

xGF/60, xGA/60, xGF% – “expected goals” i.e. goals team “should” have scored and allowed based on amount and types of chances and attempts created and allowed given neutral goaltending. 

PDO – shooting percentage plus save percentage, used to measure luck. 100 is average.

Time On Ice Percentage – amount of even-strength time player skates

Off. Zone Start Ratio – percentage of shifts started in offensive zone

TOI% of Competition: percentage of even-strength time opponent takes of his team player skates against

 

 

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Jonny…Angry Jonny…This Is Hawks Fans In Hell…

By Sam Fels 2439 0

Well if Poe reference doesn’t officially mark me as too fucking old, nothing will. BUT THAT’S NOT WHY YOU CALLED.

It seems the way of the world these days is that we have to have a referendum on Jonathan Toews every couple of months or so, if not more often. Certainly it’s hard to think of a non-Seabrookian player that’s been more scrutinized this year than the captain. Of course, that comes with the territory of being the captain. You are the barometer, the forefront, the focus. And this is the first time in Toews’s career he’s been under a serious microscope. Even last year when he wasn’t matching his usual points-total, he had a dominant two months in the season and the Hawks were winning. Now he’s not producing and they aren’t winning. The hot lights are only getting more so.

And sadly, there’s little I can add here that’s any different than the last time we did this. A lot will scoff, and I won’t necessarily blame them, but analytically Toews is actually having a better season than he has in the past four. It’s his best CF% season in four, his best relative CF% in four, his best expected goals season in four, best relative in that as well, he’s averaging more attempts personally than he has in five seasons, and his individual expected goals is higher than it’s been in four seasons. These are the numbers.

Toews hasn’t been helped by the fact the power play has been a Chicago construction site for the whole season, though he obviously takes some responsibility for that as well. But say we penciled in ten more points on the power play, three goals and seven assists for him, if this unit was even mediocre. Suddenly Toews’s numbers are 17-26-43 in 52 games. Maybe not what you’d come to expect from Toews because of his past, but that would hardly be bad.

Toews is also somewhat being held up to an impossible standard, namely his simply unconscious season-in-a-can of 2013. Not only was he dominant, he also got a little lucky in terms of his own and the team’s shooting percentage as well. Keep in mind he was on pace for a 43-goal, 83-point season if that one was a full 82, with a 58% Corsi and stupid 62% expected goals. No one’s keeping that pace up.

Toews has seen his shooting-percentage at evens dip for the past three seasons, to the point where just like Marian Hossa we wonder if this isn’t just the new normal. Toews used to be anywhere from 13-16% at evens, and this is his third straight season of being around 8%. Again, it’s hard to pinpoint why this might be. He’s getting the same chances and the same quality of chances, if not better, but they’re not going in. We can’t really measure his release, accuracy, or velocity, and none of these are getting better as the pressure mounts.

Another thing we can’t measure is just how much Toews was asked to do in the past is weighing on him now. Yes, everyone points to the amount of games but that’s hardly the whole picture. After the ’15 season, and even during it, when Marian Hossa’s decline started for real, Toews’s job description became that much harder. Not only was he expected to carry out all his defensive duties low in his own zone, but he also had to be the first forechecker into the offensive one because Hossa just wasn’t getting there like he used to. Or he at least had to get their quicker because Hossa couldn’t Atlas a forecheck by himself for as long as he used to. Because really, who could?

It’s was shaded somewhat by Saad helping out in 2015 with the heavy lifting, but it’s no surprise that Toews’s numbers dropped when Saad left. It was only up to him to take up what Hossa couldn’t do anymore, as Hossa always paid attention to his defensive duties first. He would sacrifice some forecheck to be where he needed to be defensively. And Richard Panik clearly wasn’t enough, at least for anything more than a spurt here or there.

This was obviously the thinking in bringing Saad back. Someone who could get first into the zone and do things while Toews would obviously only have to support. But it hasn’t worked that way. Either with Saad’s in-and-out nights, or the fact that there wasn’t anyone to make anything of the work they are doing. Saad-Toews-Hossa was such an unholy force they didn’t need a playmaker. They could just bludgeon and force and cycle their way into chances. This is what you see Q trying to compensate for with Top Cat flanking Toews and Duclair, with Duclair now assigned what Saad was supposed to be doing. Debrincat has the vision and hands to use up that space being created. Patience and we could see some real numbers from this line very soon.

But that’s not the whole story, is it? Because there are still things you see from Toews on some nights that just don’t look right, do they? Who’s this getting beat back up the ice in OT for the winner against?

That’s not totally fair. It’s overtime 3-on-3 and people get in weird spots. Sean Monahan is younger and faster. That’s just the way things are.

Again here in Vancouver:

There are factors here. Toews is at the end of a PP shift and clearly tired. It’s not his turnover but ADB’s. But there’s a lack of anticipation, some hesitation, that we’re just not used to with Toews no matter the state of his legs on a given shift. And these haven’t been isolated incidents.

To try and explain Toews’s season with one or even two reasons if folly. In some ways it’s been what it’s always been. And he’s also been a victim of watching the league get faster while he might have lost even a half step. You don’t get a half-step in this league anymore. He’s been letdown at times by teammates. He might not be getting any luck again. He and no one else can seem to save themselves on the power play. And there’s probably more.

While I hate to steal a line from “Dark Knight Rises” because it’s terrible, it seems in some ways victory has defeated Toews. Because of him and the way the Hawks played and won and basically ran over the league there for a while. the game had to get faster. Everyone came to the Hawks level or more right at the time when the Hawks couldn’t quite maintain it anymore. It makes the gap look bigger.

Maybe Toews’s focus isn’t what it used to be, and I wouldn’t blame him if it wasn’t. After three rings, two gold medals, a Selke, a Conn Smythe (which should have gone to Keith or Sharp but we’ll save that for another time), there is nothing left for Toews to prove. He could retire tomorrow and be a first ballot Hall of Famer. So if a backcheck in Vancouver in February isn’t quite as important as it was, that seems almost natural.

Toews has also borne the brunt of criticisms for things that have nothing to do with him. His paycheck to start, and you know our policy on that. It wasn’t Toews who shipped off valuable youngsters that would be providing depth now to compensate for dumb contracts either the GM handed out or was forced to hand out. Imagine what Teuvo might have been doing on the other side of Saad and him? If Danault could have picked up some of his checking assignments?

Toews can still save this season, and I would never bet against the man. Because there’s enough here to say that it isn’t as bad as some would have you believe, and it wouldn’t take much for the underlying numbers to turn into tangible results.