Faxes from Uncle Dale

Category: Everything Else

  • It’s All A Problem

    It’s All A Problem

    Carping off Good Sir Pullega’s wrap last night, I’ve basically sat here all morning and thought how last night’s game was the perfect showcase for everything that has gone wrong or afflicts the Hawks this season. And seeing as how it very well could be the final nail in this season’s coffin, it makes it even more poignant. But as you know I love to say, you love last night’s game. It says everything you want to say.

    Let’s go through it:

    1. Goaltending

    We can break down the deficiencies on the Hawks roster from here until the end of the world (currently scheduled for next month), but you’re not going to get past this. Thanks to the CBA and the flattening cap, it’s nearly impossible to get your roster of skaters that much more talented than anyone else. It’s why most teams look the same. Even where you think there are gaps, they’re not as big as you think.

    So it’s a goalie league. Look at the top of the standings. Tampa, Boston, Nashville, Winnipeg, Vegas, they’re all getting Vezina-level goaltending or close to it. You cannot base success without it now. It may be a devilish task to find 18 skaters that can separate you from the pack, so it’s a hell of a lot easier to find one goalie.

    And the Hawks had it, but now they don’t, and you see the results. You’re tempted to not hang Forsberg completely out to dry as after all the Hawks only scored two goals. But goals change games. If he doesn’t let Pitlick’s blast in, the Hawks go into the third tied. Maybe the Stars are still tempted to lock it down as they did in the third anyway, get their point, and take their chances in the extra frame. But probably not as hard core. Maybe with just a slight loosening or a mistake the Hawks can find another goal. One goal changes the complexion of everything.

    Looking back over the schedule since Crow went out, you can find a lot of points that Crow might have gotten them. Upon first glance: new year’s eve against Calgary, Jan. 5th against Vegas, Jan. 10th vs. Minnesota, home to the Leafs, maybe in Vancouver, both games recently against the Flames, and last night. Even conservatively, that’s 7-8 points on the board. How much better would things look? Even boil that down to five and it’s a totally different outlook.

    And again, Forsberg is merely a backup. He’s not supposed to save your season. How many teams even have a backup that could? Maybe Saros in Nashville? Do we know that for sure? Khudobin in Boston? We saw what he looked like as a starter in the past. Kuemper is doing a fine impression in LA, but he also remains Darcy Kuemper. Let’s just say it’s rare.

    I can’t help but think of Montreal a couple years ago when Carey Price basically missed the whole season. Metrically, and by other measures, the Habs were good that year. But none of it mattered because they didn’t get the saves they were accustomed to getting and needed. Ever. And that was that. Price comes back the next year, they’re basically the same team, and they win the division. When you have a Price-caliber goalie, and that’s what Crawford is despite Pierre McGuire forever muddying the perception of him, there’s simply nothing you can do to make up for the loss of him. It’s pretty simple.

    2. The lack of a puck-mover

    You saw this last night when the Stars went full-Jabba The Hitch in the 3rd. The Hawks didn’t have any answers. They’re not a team built to dump and chase and rugby their way into chances and goals. And that’s fine if you have a quick and creative blue line. The Hawks do not.

    Duncan Keith was never PK Subban or Erik Karlsson. Keith’s springing of the offense in the past was his insane ability to create turnovers just ahead of each blue line with a burst of a first step that simply no one else in the league had. He then immediately got the puck up to the forwards with the other team caught in bad positions. He was not a “wheel it out from behind his own net and carry it 160 feet through three guys” guy. It’s why he’s never been a power play QB either. Well, now he doesn’t have that first step, and is still recalibrating his game to that. At times he’s trying to Roger Federer things and try and force even earlier than he did in the past. But that’s often ending in a mess. And he can’t recover like he could.

    Beyond that, there’s just no one else. Gustafsson and Forsling were too busy getting buried in their own end to be that guy. Seabrook… well, if he can’t make the pass from his own circles you know how this goes. Kempy is more in the Oduya model in that he can use his wheels to get out of trouble in his own end but is offensively limited. It’s simply not in Murphy’s job description.

    So a team can simply stand up at its line, with no fear of being beaten, and force the Hawks to put it in the corners. Which is where…

    3. Lack of a forecheck

    Here’s the thing. You don’t have to be a really big team to be a good forechecking one. You just have to be quick and determined. The Hawks were never big but could make this work in the past, though it helped that they had Keith or Oduya or a younger Seabrook and Hammer also ready to force things at the blue line as well and squeezing space. They also had Marian Hossa.

    Now? Not so much. And I don’t know that it has to be this way. It’s what Saad was supposed to help with. Hinostroza certainly is willing and fast, though maybe just not strong enough. It’s in Duclair too, and he did cause a couple turnovers last night. It’s still supposed to be a Toews specialty. That’s basically someone on every line.

    And yet the Hawks remain remarkable easy to break out against, and the defense behind that much easier to get through once teams do. Granted, this is a Hitchcock team and 1-6 the Stars are as solid on defense as you’ll find. But you still have to find a way to even threaten.

    I don’t know if they just don’t want to, or they just gave up on weights in the gym or something, but it really shouldn’t look like this. And it shouldn’t look like them trying to come up with Rembrandts at the blue line trying to avoid this and just giving up the puck there instead. When you have a lead against the Hawks, if you just make them go 200 feet there’s nothing they can do. When they can’t play on the rush, they have no answers.

    Sadly, the last two things don’t look like they can be fixed in the coming years either, as they are linked. The Hawks don’t have a puck-moving d-man anywhere near ready, unless they plan to toss Jokiharju into the league at 19 (and maybe he could do that but boy is that an ask). Come next October I’d certainly be more than intrigued at what Top Cat, Schmaltz, Hinostroza, Kampf look like with the experience, along with the addition of Sikura and maybe one or two others. But until the Hawks come up with a definitive answer on their blue line, it’s probably all for naught.

  • Game #54 – No One Speaks English And Everything’s Broken, And My Stacies Are Soaking Wet – Hawks 2, Stars 4

    Game #54 – No One Speaks English And Everything’s Broken, And My Stacies Are Soaking Wet – Hawks 2, Stars 4

    Box Score

    Hockey Stats

    Natural Stat Trick

    The Hawks, in the words of the inimitable Tom Waits, are a battered old suitcase to a hotel someplace, and a wound that will never heal. To the bullets.

    – Brent Seabrook had a positively wonderful game tonight. His pass on Toews’s goal channeled 2013, and his purposely wide shot on Arty the One Man Party’s PP tally was a tangible example of the excellent passing we’ve always loved about him. Plus, his Corsi was a robust 67+ at 5v5. It’s no coincidence that he played the second-fewest minutes of all Hawks D-Men at evens, ahead only of Kempný. I don’t know about you, but even with the Hawks losing, I took solace in watching Seabrook play well. Like hot spiked cider on a cold, unforgiving winter’s night.

    – The same can’t be said about Jordan Oesterle. He had a nice run coming out of the press box cold for a while, but the magic beans he’d been consuming to give him that extra giddy-up have gone stale. His turnover behind his own net let Stephen “One of the Ones Who Got Away” Johns do his best Russ Tyler impression, burying a knuckler—that Oesterle himself may have set the screen on—from the blue line for the Stars’s second goal in less than a minute. He also had a couple of miscues in the third that ended up not doing any direct damage, but did lead to extended pressure for the Stars early in the third with the Hawks down one.  Despite this, and his 44+ CF% on the night, he played more than anyone except Keith. This is your D-corps, folks.

    – Anthony Duclair seemed half a step behind everything tonight. He whiffed on a wide-open shot off a Toews pass after stealing the puck from Pissbaby Benn late in the first. His turnover in his own zone led to the Stars’s first goal. From about midway through the second onward, he was a ghost. But his possession numbers were stellar (67+ CF%). He’s still got loads of potential and needs to stay up with DeBrincat and Toews, and eventually be re-signed.

    – I want to be mad at Anton Forsberg, by my heart just isn’t in it. At the end of the day, he’s a backup goaltender on a team whose D-Men are either rapidly declining, still learning, or flat-out suck. There’s not much he can do on that first goal, with Radulov firing a perfect saucer pass to Tyler Seguin off the Duclair turnover. Having Oesterle screen him on Johns’s shot can sort of be forgiven. And yes, he needs to stop fucking Tyler Pitlick’s slapper at the end of the second. But then again, it’s perfectly fitting that a guy named Pitlick would score the game winner against the Hawks tonight, isn’t it?

    – Connor Murphy started the game on the top pairing and looked pretty good doing it. His CF% of 54+ was inspiring. But he was on the ice for two goals. You can argue that he took a bad angle on the first goal, but given how often he’s been flipped and jerked around this year, it’d be a stretch. And we all saw the third goal: That’s on Forsberg. You’d like to see him get more time with Keith, but with the defensive carousel that Q is throttling into overdrive, it’s impossible to tell.

    – Erik Gustafsson looks more like a 5-6 D-Man every night. He’s got decent vision with his passing too, at least when Kane’s on the ice with him. I’d be interested to see him with one of Rutta or Kempný at some point.

    – David Kampf probably has a future as a bottom six defensive center. His stick checking was pristine tonight, and he won a few board battles to show off his strength.

    – It was nice to see Toews score tonight. He also had a 73+ CF%. But he missed a yawning net in the first off a pass through the Royal Road from DeBrincat, either because he wasn’t expecting the pass or because his skate got caught. Microcosms.

    – The chocolates and flowers for Tommy Wingels tonight were a bit much. Foley, Jammer, and Burish barely had time to come up for air between all the kisses they blew at him for TROWING HITS OUT DERE. He had one good hit in the third that separated the puck and drew a penalty, but other than that, I don’t get it. He janked an uncontested rebound off the far post and did nothing other than hit guys the rest of the night. I understand the frustration over this team this year. I understand that we don’t really have any answers. But this whole DA FIRE AND DA PASHUN garbage is already wearing thin. Hits have never been the answer for this team, and they sure as shit aren’t the answer now.

    – Brandon Saad did not have a good game, again. He logged a 48+ CF% with Schmaltz and Vinnie. He did set up a few good chances that went unanswered. Like all of you, I want to see him come out of his funk. He’s probably best served playing with Schmaltz and Kane again, but I get how it can be hard to justify it right now. At the end of the day, he’s a good player having both a down and unlucky year.

    As it stands, this season is circling the drain. As it stands, the Hawks have good young talent on the front lines but not the back end. As it stands, without Corey Crawford, this team doesn’t have the firepower to make the playoffs.  It’s frustrating, it’s out of the ordinary, and it’s hockey, baby.

    Onward.

    Boozes du Jour: Jefferson’s whiskey into High Life back into whiskey.

    Line of the Night: “HIT SOMEONE.” –Adam Burish on how the Hawks could overcome a 3–2 deficit in the third (I usually love Burish, and I get the frustration, but it’s lazy).

  • Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – February 8th

    Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – February 8th

    First Screen Viewing

    Knights vs. Sharks – 9:30

    Somehow, this is a battle between 1st and 2nd in the Pacific, even though we were all pretty sure both these teams wouldn’t be any good before the season. Some of us are still in denial about Vegas of course, and though they have a 10-point gap on the Sharks, which is an indictment on the whole league, some of us still think there’s a collapse coming. Maybe this starts it. Maybe not. Seeing as how no team can actually act like they’re doing a job when they get to Vegas. But whatever. The Sharks are in a bit of trouble without Thornton, and yet they’re still here.

    Second Screen Viewing

    Flames vs. Devils – 6pm

    The Flames continue their trip after squeezing out another one against the Hawks. The Devils remain involved in the Metro race. They have three games in hand on the Penguins in second who are ahead of them by a point. Once again, we have a team we have no idea what they’re doing there. Welcome to the NHL. The Flames have their own work to do, still trailing the wild card and Kings in the Pacific.

    Other Games

    Islanders vs. Sabres – 6pm

    Canadiens vs. Flyers – 6pm

    Predators vs. Senators – 6:30

    Canucks vs. Lightning – 6:30

    Avalanche vs. Blues – 7pm

    Coyotes vs. Wild – 7pm

  • Game #54 – Stars vs. Hawks Preview/Snot Party: It May Have Stopped Mattering

    Game #54 – Stars vs. Hawks Preview/Snot Party: It May Have Stopped Mattering

     vs. 

    RECORDS: Stars 31-19-4   Hawks 24-21-8

    PUCK DROP: 7:30

    TV: NBCSN Chicago

    NORTH DALLAS 40: Defending Big D

    I’m tired of saying it.  You’re tired of reading it. So let’s skip it. Let’s just ask the Hawks to play another good game, which they have been for the most part lately, but actually finish more chances and get a win. Just one. Whatever they’re going to do, or pretend to do, or fool themselves into doing, is going to start with one win. Or it’s just Daffy Duck in the car that Bugs already pulled the one pin out of and is just falling apart around him as he grips the wheel. Of course, a win over the Stars would be a first this year.

    The Stars have taken off a bit, and now only sit one point behind the Blues for the third spot in the Central for the last automatic spot, and they have a game in hand. That’s about as high as they can climb, as they have played two more games than the Preds. Then again, that would assume the Preds ever really “turn it on,” despite their standing. But that’s another discussion or another time.

    The big factor for the Stars, as you might have guessed with Jabba The Hitch behind the bench, has been the defense. They’re fifth in the league in goals against, third in shots-against, second in even-strength attempts against, and sixth in scoring chances per 60 against. Clearly, Hitch has gotten his paws out of the donut box and into the Stars psyche. They’ve gotten good enough play at least from both THE BISHOP! and Kari Lehtonen, but unlike previous Stars teams they haven’t asked them to do too much. And this is what you get when you do that.

    The forwards are still a touch messy. They have a wicked awesome (?) top line of Benn-Seguin-Radulov, which Hitch has tried to break up at times to spread things out. But they’re too good together to do that for too long. Jason Spezza decomposing and thrown something of a wrench in the plan, but Radek Faksa’s grabbed the second center role finally so they’re not as dependent on him. Janmark, Ritchie, and Shore have contributed here and there without quite breaking through, but again, they’ve been enough.

    The real strength of the Stars is the blue line. John Klingberg’s 44 assists and glittering metrics should have him at the top of the Norris discussion. Esa Lindell has turned into the perfect partner for him. Perhaps Hitch’s greatest miracle is turning the pairing of Dan Hamhuis and Greg Pateryn into his shutdown one, though Pateryn is something of his Cody Franson at this point. The jig will be up soon enough. Stephen Johns and Julius Honka have been a great third pairing, which will make for something of a headache when Marc Methot is ready to return. Hitch still loves a veteran, after all. The first pairing of Lindell and Klingberg and the third pairing of Johns and Honka (HONKA! HONKA!) dominate possession, and the second one soaks up whatever pressure is around. 1-6 it’s hard to find a better unit outside of Nashville.

    For the Hawks, shouldn’t be too many changes. Connor Murphy is no longer sick, so he should slot in for Jan Rutta (and in our dreams, Brent Seabrook). Anton Forsberg should get the net back. But as for lineup changes there isn’t a lot to be done. The Hawks didn’t play badly on Tuesday, they just didn’t finish or get any luck. We know Q likes the look of three of the four lines, and does it really matter what you do with Saad-Hartman-Sharp at this point? No, no it does not.

    Let’s not treat this as some referendum. One win isn’t going to change anything. Fuck, three wins on the spin isn’t going to do much. It would just be nice to enjoy a Hawks game again. It’s been a bit, probably since Nashville. Start there, and we’ll figure out the rest later.

     

    Game #54 Preview

    Preview

    Spotlight

    Q&A

    Douchebag Du Jour

    I Make A Lot Of Graphs

    Lineups & How Teams Were Built

  • Game #54 – Stars vs. Hawks Spotlight: Our Yearly Stephen Johns Referendum

    Game #54 – Stars vs. Hawks Spotlight: Our Yearly Stephen Johns Referendum

    This will be the third year we do this. It’s because the trade of Stephen Johns still stings a bit. It’s the trade that the acquisition of Connor Murphy is basically trying to make up for. It’s easy to just say that the punting of Johns simply to get rid of Patrick Sharp’s salary crippled the Hawks blue line to its current state. But is that really true?

    Johns has been skating third pairing minutes in Dallas, though he’s flipped at times with Greg Pateryn for second pairing time with Dan Hamhuis. Lately, Ken Hitchcock has found a comfort level with Pateryn and Hamhuis, though he’s not been shy about giving Johns and Honka just about as much time. He’s seeing 13-15 minutes at even-strength per game for the past month.

    Metrically, Johns is not having the season he’s had in the past. Of their current regular six, Johns has the worst relative CF% and xGF%. He does start more in his own zone than the top pairing of Klingberg and Lindell, but not as much as Hamhuis and Pateryn which has become something of the shutdown pairing for the Stars.

    However, it’s worth taking Johns’s numbers with Julius Honka on their own. Because they’ve taken quite a leap. Honka and Johns together are carrying a 53.4 CF%, and a 52.9 scoring-chance percentage. It’s the best mark he has with any of Dallas’s d-men.

    We’re still a long way from learning what Johns is, though getting closer. He’s got 126 games in the NHL, and an additional 100+ in the AHL. So he’s passed that magical 200 professional game mark. What we can say is that he’s best with a puck-mover, where he’s not the one asked to get the puck up the ice solely. Johns’s strengths are in the corners and down low and stepping up at his blue line to squeeze the play. He can do that better behind someone instead of in front of his partner. At least that’s the way it’s worked out so far.

    How he would have fit in the Hawks is hard to say, and probably not even worth thinking about. How many times would he have been scratched behind TVR, for instance? While the Hawks might claim different, they were high on him. They tried multiple times to get him out of Notre Dame, and then had to give him special circumstances in Rockford to get him out of South Bend after his junior year. They wanted him in the system badly, and they wanted him in Chicago as well.

    It’s just one of those things will never know. If Stan Bowman  gets the sack this summer, or soon, the biggest black mark against him will be that he lost too many NHL-worthy prospects for nothing. Johns had to be the sweetener to get the Stars to take Patrick Sharp. Teuvo had to be that so the Canes would take Bryan Bickell. Phillip Danault was punted in a rental-trade for Tomas Fleischmann and Dale Weise. Those three players are almost certainly the difference between this team being a playoff team right now and where they actually are.

    In a salary cap world, your cheap, young talent have to be used or moved along for things you actually use. And you get almost no margin for error. The Hawks are learning that now, and some of that error is Stephen Johns-sized.

     

    Game #54 Preview

    Preview

    Spotlight

    Q&A

    Douchebag Du Jour

    I Make A Lot Of Graphs

    Lineups & How Teams Were Built

  • Game #54 – Stars vs. Hawks Q&A: Taylor Baird of DefendingBigD.com

    Game #54 – Stars vs. Hawks Q&A: Taylor Baird of DefendingBigD.com

    Taylor is the editor-in-chief of DefendingBigD.com. Follow her @TaylorBaird.

    Last time we saw the Stars, they were in the muddle of the last playoff spot along with the Hawks. They’ve since separated themselves into the first wild card spot and are hot on the heels of the Blues for the third spot in the Central. What’s been the change?

    The Stars defense continues to improve. They’ve climbed from somewhere in the 20’s in the league in terms of goals against average to 5th in the league, allowing only 2.56 goals against on average per game. It’s been improvement in both even strength defense and penalty killing (where they rank 9th in the league today at 82.2% of penalties killed.) The goaltending has been fantastic of late, with Kari Lehtonen having a renaissance in terms of stats (.919SV% and 2.22 GAA) and Ben Bishop’s performance nothing to sneeze at, either (.919 SV%, 2.44 GAA). The offense has also come on of late, averaging slightly more than three goals per game on average now. It’s a big change from the first roughly 15 games of the season, when the team was struggling in all aspects other than the power play.
    Jason Spezza only put up 50 points last year, and is on pace for way less this year. He’s been shuttled between center and wing. Is it just time that’s caught up? Is this a major problem?

    The Stars have struggled to figure out Spezza’s role on the team. It’s driven by Radek Faksa emerging as a premier two-way center on the team as well as the offseason signing of Martin Hanzal. Spezza struggled offensively at the beginning of the season, and his ice time suffered because of it. He’s also been paired with wingers that haven’t been known for finishing, and think the game a pace behind Spezza. That’s contributed to his offensive decline. One thing I will say is that Spezza has looked better since being reunited with Mattias Janmark, so there’s still hope that it might turn around for him in the last 20ish games or so. As they say, it’s all about how you roll into the playoffs, right?
    There are two players in Brett Ritchie and Julius Honka who don’t have the scoring stats you might want, but have glittering underlying numbers. Are the Stars happy enough with these two just pushing the play?

    I think they are happy to a degree, yes. With Ritchie, the coach has come out and even said that he’s struggled mightily this year. That’s why he’s found himself pushed down the lineup or eating some healthy scratches at times, as other players look better and produce. But he’s still getting the chance to play through his struggles for the most part, even if it’s to the chagrin of some fans. As for Honka, it’s tough for fans to see a young player with that much potential get jerked around in terms of playing time, but at the end of the day, the Stars need a defense that works. Honka seems to have taken his healthy scratches in stride, and his games of late have shown he’s listened when the coaching staff has said he’s been too cautious in terms of offense. I feel like he will be tough to fit into the lineup when Marc Methot returns to the lineup healthy, if only because I’m not sure he’s done enough to beat out Stephen Johns for the 6th D spot, and Hitch seems to love him some Greg Pateryn (even if the underlying numbers are just blah with him…)
    Is. a 2.44 GAA and .919 SV% what you expected out of Ben Bishop? Is that enough to go where the Stars want?
    The last few years, all Dallas would have needed was LEAGUE AVERAGE goaltending to go far. Those numbers are far and away better than what Stars fans have seen in the past 5ish years, so we’ll happily take it.
    What will the Stars be looking to do at the deadline?
    To be honest, I’m not sure there’s much that the Stars will do at the deadline. I think they like their lineup, and it’s been working for them of late, so it’s possible that they won’t want to overpay for a deadline rental. If they target anyone, I’d bet on a top six right wing to add some depth to the second line in terms of scoring, or someone that adds to the second power play unit to make that player set more lethal. But with the draft coming to Dallas this summer, they likely won’t want to deal too many of their picks — and their pipeline of talent isn’t in a position to deal too many of those (though if they are going to do so, blueline seems to be a position of depth but not necessarily strength, and they have a few forwards that could be of interest to other teams.)

     

    Game #54 Preview

    Preview

    Spotlight

    Q&A

    Douchebag Du Jour

    I Make A Lot Of Graphs

    Lineups & How Teams Were Built

  • Game #54 – Stars vs. Hawks Douchebag Du Jour: Jim Nill – Your Offseason Champ Every Summer

    Game #54 – Stars vs. Hawks Douchebag Du Jour: Jim Nill – Your Offseason Champ Every Summer

    The level of our bile for the way the Detroit Red Wings are covered is no secret. It also spreads to those who come from the Red Wings/Ken Holland tree, even though it’s been well-proven by now that Holland is something of a blithering idiot. So because the hockey press has to apply that gloss to someone for fear it would go bad, it goes to Jim Nill. Because he was Holland’s assistant and got lucky in a couple drafts.

    Let’s be clear: Nill’s Stars have won one playoff round since he showed up. It’s nine playoff wins in four seasons. And yet every time Nill does something in the summer, there’s a rush to the payphones (we assume the Canadian media still uses payphones) to declare the Stars the big winner of the offseason.

    Yes, the Tyler Seguin trade was a good one. Hiring Lindy Ruff was not. Trading for Antti Niemi was not. Trading for Shawn Horcoff was not. Jason Spezza sort of worked out. Ales Hemsky most certainly didn’t. Trading for Stephen Johns was a decent move, even if Patrick Sharp came with because he didn’t give up anything. Signing Johnny Oduya… baddy McBad. Ben Bishop might work out, though it has to be this year.

    Moreover, Nill’s drafting record is pretty spotty. Of his picks, only Julius Honka and Valeri Nichushkin have made an impact. The former might sit for Marc Methot (another brilliant move) and Nichushkin in back in Russia. Faksa, Shore, and Ritchie were all picks of his predecessors.

    Nill might make up for it this year. Hitchcock has given the Stars some structure and the Central hasn’t been all that impressive. A first-matchup with Winnipeg or St. Louis would be inviting. Nashville less so. But it still screams second round, and then whatever move he makes this summer will once again be crowned “Offseason Champs!” Maybe they can call the Capitals to find out where to get useless banners made.

     

    Game #54 Preview

    Preview

    Spotlight

    Q&A

    Douchebag Du Jour

    I Make A Lot Of Graphs

    Lineups & How Teams Were Built

  • Game #54 – Stars vs. Hawks: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

    Game #54 – Stars vs. Hawks: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

     

    Game #54 Preview

    Preview

    Spotlight

    Q&A

    Douchebag Du Jour

    I Make A Lot Of Graphs

    Lineups & How Teams Were Built

  • Game #54 – Stars vs. Hawks: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

    Game #54 – Stars vs. Hawks: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

     

    Game #54 Preview

    Preview

    Spotlight

    Q&A

    Douchebag Du Jour

    I Make A Lot Of Graphs

    Lineups & How Teams Were Built

  • The Return – Fireside Chat

    The Return – Fireside Chat

    Do you believe in miracles?

    No!

    Anyways, since you’re here I felt it necessary to add on to a point that Sam made in his post yesterday about Brandon Saad and the scouting department. This was something I’ve been pondering for awhile now. Everyone loves to discuss the roles of Stan Bowman, John McDonough and Joel Quenneville and the (perceived) power struggle between the three. Yours truly, included.

    However, when discussing Bowman it’s important to keep in mind who is feeding him the information that he’s using to base his decisions. After all, he and his galaxy brain alone are not watching thousands of hockey games per day, compiling a database of players, their tendencies, strengths and weaknesses, etc.

    I’m talking about the scouting department. For the purpose of this exercise, we’ll break it down in three categories with the man in charge for the Blackhawks organization:

    • Amateur (Mark Kelley since 2008)*
    • European (Mats Hallin since 2013)
    • Pro (Ryan Stewart since 2012)*

    If I had to rank the returns the Hawks have received from these three departments, it would go European, Amateur and then Pro very well below that.

    The returns the Hawks have gotten from Europe are nothing short of miraculous in this decade. From Artemi Panarin to Antti Raanta and even down to Michal Kempny, the Hawks are/or have gotten a ton of value from their European efforts. Hell, David Kampf looks like a piece that could be a part of something down the road. I can’t think of one guy they acquired from Europe who didn’t at least look like a NHL player or would be deemed a mistake signing.

    Mark Kelley became VP of amateur scouting in 2015 after being director of amateur scouting since 2008. For the time being, let’s look at his work since his fancier title. You can thank him for the Hawks selecting DeBrincat in 2016. Henri Jokiharju is obviously being penciled into future plans and has put together a terrific campaign in the WHL thus far. Those are the two big names. Then there’s others like Ian Mitchell, Chad Krys, Graham Knott, Matthew Highmore, Nathan Noel, Dennis Gilbert. You get the point. There’s still a lot of TBA in the pile; although Knott we can probably launch to the career AHLer pile but he was the 54th pick in the draft. At the very least, DeBrincat is a grand slam that will be a feather in Kelley’s cap and will get him a ton of leeway as we move forward.

    That brings us to the pro scouting department and Ryan Stewart. It’s at this point I may recommend closing your eyes. I started thinking about the Hawks pro scouting department yesterday when I saw Elliotte Friedman mention that the Hawks may consider moving Saad (again) to clear cap space. Then when Sam brought up how his scoring droughts in Columbus should have been noticed by the pro scouting department, I knew it was time for a deeper dive.

    Since Ryan Stewart took over pro scouting, here is a glimpse at some of the names the Hawks have acquired with pro experience. I’m warning you, cover your eyes:

    • David Rundblad
    • Brad Richards
    • Kris Versteeg (The Return)
    • Antoine Vermette
    • Kimmo Timonen
    • Tim Erixon
    • Artem Anisimov
    • Andrew Ladd (The Return)
    • Trevor Daley
    • Rob Scuderi
    • Brian Campbell (The Return)
    • Ryan Garbutt
    • Marko Dano
    • Jiri Sekac
    • Dale Weise
    • Tomas Fleischmann
    • Richard Panik
    • Johnny Oduya (The Return)
    • Patrick Sharp (The Return)
    • Brandon Saad (The Return)
    • Connor Murphy
    • Tomas Jurco
    • Anthony Duclair

    It’s obviously quick to judge on Duclair and the early returns have looked promising. We’ve covered Saad ad nauseum and it’s not anyone’s fault in the front office that Connor Murphy is being punished for not being Niklas Hjalmarsson circa 2013. Anisimov filled a need. Brad Richards did the same for a year. Perhaps I’m missing a few more solid acquisitions. Please don’t say Jordan Oesterle.

    The rest of the names on that list, though…Woof.

    Ladd was clearly not the same player when he was re-acquired and had no business skating on a top line of a Cup contender; same with Versteeg as he was coming off knee surgery. The Hawks said they watched Kimmo Timonen skate at practice when he was making his way back from blood clots and said he’d have no problem keeping pace. Then he was nearly murdered by Anaheim and we all wept in horror as we watched. Rundblad, Weise, Fleischmann – there’s no need to relive any of that.

    I get that the Hawks have had to go on the cheap when it came to acquiring guys with pro experience because they needed a lower cap hit and certain guys were Hail Mary acquisitions (Erixon, Panik and Sekac come to mind). But the names I mentioned in the previous two paragraphs were all guys where a ton of resources from other departments were sacrificed so the Hawks could acquire them. And their returns (other than Versteeg in 2015 and even that was not a home run) have brought back essentially nothing.

    This, of course, raises a plethora of other questions to which we will never know the answers such as “How many of these acquisitions were made based on Stewart’s positive (incorrect) reports?” for one.

    We’ve discussed on the podcast this season that the lack of young and polished defensemen has been one of the biggest reasons the Hawks find themselves in the position they are in. If we dig even deeper, I think you’ll find there’s another huge gap in the organization and that is in their ability to accurately project pro players. Meanwhile, the European and amateur departments are continuing to fill the roster with useful pieces as we see the aforementioned DeBrincat, Schmaltz, Hinostroza and Kampf growing into more responsibility.

    Pro scouting should really be the easiest pieces to identify. After all, there is not nearly as much projection or player development required compared to the other two. It’s also the department that can make the most immediate (positive or negative) impact as teams are not waiting months or years for guys to grow into a role. In the case of the Hawks, it’s also arguably the most important as they’ve been in a Win-Now mode since 2008.

    This divide of talent identification between the three departments has been growing for awhile and it’s helped put the Hawks in the position they find themselves today. Now, there are rumblings that their two main off-season acquisitions (Saad and Murphy) look like question marks as to whether they’re even in the team’s plan for the future. How in the hell is that even remotely healthy for the long-term picture, Senator?

    If you’re tired of blaming the same three guys for the Hawks current woes, here’s another place where you can point a finger.

    *Two friends of the program alerted me after the original post that Mark Kelley has been in charge of amateur scouting since 2008 and Ryan Stewart has been in charge of pro scouting since 2012. Their titles have changed over the years and I originally went by what was listed on the Hawks website. The changes were made above to reflect that.