Category: Everything Else

  • Now Here Is Nowhere

    Now Here Is Nowhere

    Last night’s frustrating loss whipped up a little more vitriol and angst than previous losses have. Perhaps it was the manner, as the Hawks did play well, couldn’t finish, and were on the donkey end of a couple calls (one not egregious, one that really defies belief). Still, the Hawks only scored one goal that mattered, really none at even-strength, and you’re going to get what you get when you do that. Which is not much and basically a handful of yourself.

    And while it hurts to say, given the results everywhere else it’s left the playoff hopes in tatters, and now the Hawks are going to need something bordering on miraculous to even get back into the discussion. Which means the knives are coming out, and that means people want guillotine fodder.

    It’s understandable. While I don’t think anyone expected this team to repeat last year’s regular season, this has been a disappointment. The injury to Crawford has been more crucial than anyone wants to admit, because no one wants to admit their team hinges so heavily on a goalie. But the Hawks are hardly alone in this. If Pekka Rinne weren’t having a renaissance season at 35 the Preds would be way off where they are, because they really haven’t been a good defensive team yet this year. The Jets and Hellebuyck. Vegas and their rotating cast of clowns. When the Kings were riding high it was because Quick was throwing a .940 at the league. Even Tampa, the best team in the league, has Vasilevskiy as a Vezina leader. Rask has lifted Boston. This is just how the league works now.

    But that’s not enough for a lot, and I don’t know that they’re wrong. People want the house cleaned, and that’s both GM and coach.

    Our feelings on the coach are well-known at this point, so let’s save that for a bit later. When it comes to any possible firing of Stan Bowman, one has to ask what the expectations for him and the team really were, not what they said they were, and what mistakes you’re firing him for.

    If Stan is truly, and being allowed, to try and engineer a rebuild on the fly and the results this year aren’t quite as important as next season’s or the one after that, you’d have to say his results at worst are just on the positive side. Nick Schmaltz has proven to be a bonafide #2 center in this league. Alex DeBrincat looks to be a future top line sniper, with a dash of vision thrown in. The Connor Murphy trade was a good one, whatever his coach or blinded local media seem to think. Vinnie Hinostroza and David Kampf look like they can be bottom-six contributors on a good team.

    Yes, Brandon Saad has disappointed. Maybe that could have been scouted out in Columbus, because he did do this at times there, too. But the thought was that being back in Chicago and on the top line would reinvigorate him. Stan was hardly the only one who thought that. Other than Kane, the other veterans have not performed up to their usual standards. But what was the alternative there? They’re going to be here until they retire.

    Ah, this is where the discussion begins. Brent Seabrook’s contract. Ok, let’s have it. Let’s go back in time. Even if I were to grant you that Seabrook’s extension was all Stan’s decision, and I won’t, remember when this contract was signed. Three months after a third parade. It would have taken quite the tires for any GM to let Seabrook go into the last year of his deal, after he was a major, major cog in a third triumph (and you forget how good he was that spring) and then simply let him walk. Or better yet, trade him right after the confetti had fallen to the Soldier Field ground or during the season. I can’t think of a precedent for it. Yes, you might point to the purge after the first Cup, but there was no alternative there. And all of Ladd, Byfuglien, Sopel, Versteeg, even Niemi, were more contributors than cornerstones. Seabrook was a cornerstone. Yes, the Penguins let Trevor Daley walk after two Cups. Trevor Daley also sucks and always has. You’ll notice they probably overpaid for Justin Schultz. They’ve hinted at trading Kris Letang, which would be a comp, except he’s been fragile his whole career and wasn’t even part of last year’s run. Seabrook was neither of those two things at the time.

    Yes, perhaps Stan could have played more hardball (again, if this was up to him). Maybe he could have gotten less years on it, but that probably only raises the AAV. And quite simply, hardball negotiations are not something the Hawks do. They’re terrified of it. That’s why they traded Saad the first time instead of waiting him out and imagining an incoming offer sheet that simply was never going to happen. It’s why they’ve twice handed Toews and Kane extensions well before their deals were up that were probably higher than they had to be. It’s why Crow got his deal, though man does that look like a bargain now. They just don’t do it. Their first priority, it seems, is to be seen as THE player-friendly organization.

    Stan’s biggest mistakes were losing Teuvo, Johns, and Danault for essentially nothing (though the latter was in a go-for-it trade that simply didn’t work). Even if we accept they had to go, you can’t lose young players like that for nothing in return. And that’s the ground that Stan is trying to make up. I would argue that he had to lose those players to pay other ones to please coach and president, but I won’t be able to prove that until someone writes the tell-all book in about 10 years.

    Another thing Stan is working against this campaign is that due to the NHL’s incomprehensibly stupid cap-recapture penalties, he wasn’t really allowed to do anything with Hossa’s money. The Hawks chose not to use the LTIR money in the summer so they could have flexibility during the season, and that’s understandable. What’s not is that they had to make that decision at all. Hossa’s contract was not against the rules when signed, so why should any team be punished for that after the fact? The blame could go to the players’ union as well here, who simply lied down and accepted this ridiculous rule without any fight.

    If Hossa could have simply retired and freed up the money, which he should have been able to do, it’s not like the last free agent class was staggering but there were players who could have helped, whatever the aims of this season. Bonino? Shattenkirk (was only going to the Rangers but you get it)? Radulov? Hainsey? Kulikov? Varying degrees here, but clearly some if not all would have helped. The Hawks couldn’t do any of it because of cap-recapture. That seems like a pretty big obstacle.

    If you’re firing Stan, it’s for either not starting this rebuild-on-the-fly in the immediate aftermath of a Cup, which seems just about impossible. Or you’re firing him because you don’t like where this is going, and as stated above that’s not correct. Or you’re firing him because players got old.

    I’m not saying this roster turnover is going to work next year or the one after, and then it won’t matter anyway, I don’t think. But if indeed that’s what’s going on here, Stan should get to see it to its completion. And if that falls short, then I give you permission to fire him.

  • Angry at Numbers: Murphy Go Down on the Merry-Go-Round

    Angry at Numbers: Murphy Go Down on the Merry-Go-Round

    This post is not a referendum on anyone’s play last night. Last night was a decent effort by most, muddled by the NHL’s complete refusal to clarify what its own rules are, and peppered with the missed chances, lack of finish, and poor shooting percentages that have become the norm around here. What this post aims for is to figure out why guys like Kempný and Murphy seem to get scratched for no reason that makes sense, while our favorite whipping horse gets the ice despite his performances.

    If you look at just last night’s numbers, it might make sense. Seabrook had a good possession game. But he also took a confounding boarding penalty that put the Hawks 5v3. He also couldn’t chase down Sean Monahan with the goalie pulled, allowing him to slide home the dagger. But those kinds of things are exactly why having Murphy sit yesterday and Kempný sit the game before seem so frustratingly random. If either of those two had been in Seabrook’s position, either on the penalty or the Monahan goal, is there any doubt that we’d need police dogs to start the search for them?

    Now, the organ-I-zation wants you to believe that Murphy was “sick” last night, which explains why Crawford isn’t currently skating, why they pulled Toews off the ice immediately after his dizzy spell in 2012, and why they aren’t mentioned in the Montador suit. Because player health has been a top priority for this organization. You know how this looks by now.

    While I may be an angry man, I can also be a reasonable man. So I decided to parse out some numbers to see whether Kempný or Murphy really deserved to sit over Seabrook. I looked at a few things over the last five games to see which trends I could snuff out. These stats do not include yesterday’s game.

    I looked at each player’s total time on ice and the lines he played against primarily in each of the last five games. Then I compared his CF% against just that line to his total CF% for each game. Finally, I looked at the percentage of faceoffs he took in the offensive zone during the game, and logged how many goals he was on the ice for, just for fun.

    First, I looked at Kempný.

    * = Got domed by the Johansen line (42+)

    Looking at the first two games, the raw numbers suggest that Kempný wasn’t playing that great. His full-game possession shares were below water, despite starting in the offensive zone a vast majority of the time. During these two games (and the next game in Nashville), Kempný tended to play most of his time with some combination of Sharp/Wingels–Anisimov–Hartman, otherwise known as the Smykowski line. He did well with them in Toronto (getting crushed behind the Toews and Schmaltz lines) and horribly in Detroit.

    But look at the Nashville game: Against the Turris line—which, aside from Hartnell, is usually Nashville’s second line—he posted a 57+ CF%. What dragged him down was the Johansen line, and he was far from the only Blackhawk to deal with that problem. Recall that Quenneville purposely kept Toews away from the Johansen line as much as he could on the road, and that the Johansen line had a collective 60+ CF% for the game. It’s hard to be upset about what Kempný did there, especially with the shit zone starts.

    The fourth game against Vancouver was a relative rebirth. He played most of his time against Vancouver’s top line and completely skulled them. The poor zone starts had little to no effect on his possession share, as he and Murphy led all Hawks D-Men in possession. Additionally, this was a game that saw Kempný backing up DeBrincat–Toews–Duclair just about as often as he did Wingels–Anisimov–Hartman.

    After that game, by far the best of the bunch, Quenneville scratched Kempný. He was on the ice for one 5v5 goal through four games.

    And what of Connor Murphy, the most consistent Hawks D-Man over the last few months?

    * = Faced 4th line of Komerov–Moore–Kapanen at nearly the same rate of time for a 75 CF%

    ^ = Got domed by the Johansen line (42+)

    ~ = Tkachuk–Backlund–Frolik each had a CF% of 50+ against ALL Hawks except Jurco, Gustafsson, and Seabrook

    Like his partner, Murphy had a rough go of it against Toronto. The Bozak line pushed him crotch-first into the corner of an end table. But the other line he played against at about the same rate of time, the Komerov line, got slimed by Murphy, with Murphy coming out with a 75 CF% against them.

    He turned it around in Detroit, pasting the Larkin line despite a huge lead. This may seem odd, since he and Kempný were paired up throughout the game, but I think there’s an explanation. While both Kempný and Murphy found themselves behind the Smykowski line most often, Murphy backed up the Schmaltz line as his secondary forward line, whereas Kempný backed up the Kampf line. Given how Q tends to use those two lines (Schmaltz’s in the offensive zone as much as possible, Kampf’s as a Kruger Lite), it might explain the difference.

    Murphy fared more poorly overall against Nashville, but for the same reason as Kempný: Johansen’s line ate everyone’s lunch. And when you consider the putrid offensive zone–start rate and the opponent, that game makes more sense in terms of possession.

    Like Kempný, Murphy had his best game against Vancouver. But then Calgary happened, which saw Murphy get creamed by Calgary’s 3M line to the tune of a 17+ CF%. And while the overall CF% isn’t pretty either, especially considering the decent offensive zone starts, it bears mentioning that the 3M line had at least a 50 CF% against everyone except Jurco, Gustafsson, and Seabrook.

    There’s no doubt Murphy had a bad game in Calgary, but relative to the team, it’s not as bad as it seems. It’s certainly not scratch-worthy in my view, unless you’re blaming the game-tying turnover entirely on him and believe that’s a scratchable offense. That seems a bit too punitive to me, but Murphy’s been Darkness to Q’s Rick James since he got here.

    He was on the ice for two 5v5 goals through five games, and was “sick” last night (OF DIS TEAM, YA KNOW WHAT I’M SAYIN’?).

    And then, there was Seabrook.

    * = Got buried by the Baertschi–Horvat–Boeser line (18+) and the Sedin–Sedin–Virtanen line (40)

    ^ = Split time against two lines.

    This is where it gets frustrating, because none of Seabrook’s numbers justify sitting Kempný or Murphy over him. Against Toronto, Detroit, and Vancouver, Seabrook had decent-to-plush zone starts and garbage possession. In the one game he played the fewest minutes of any D-Man, the Hawks dominated. And if we’re going to claim that Murphy should have been scratched for Calgary’s game-tying goal (he shouldn’t have), then the goal Seabrook fell down for against apparent-future-Hall-of-Famer Brendan Gaunce ought to be grounds for banishment to the center of the sun.

    Compounding this problem is that in the four games prior to Calgary, he found himself behind the Schmaltz line. And we know what happens when those guys lose the puck. So in an effort to shield him, Quenneville also managed to set him up to look foolish, which he often did.

    Anyway, the first Flames game was an odd mishmash regarding whom Seabrook saw at 5v5. While he spent the most overall time against the Mangiapane (2:55)–Bennett (7:04)–Brouwer (6:19) line, he also saw a not-negligible amount of time against Gaudreau (5:06)–Monahan (4:22)–Ferland (4:49). The Johnny Hockey line also saw the most time against Keith–Oesterle by a long shot, which makes me think that any time Glen Gulutzan’s trust-fund face could chase matchups, he was sending his best at Gustafsson–Seabrook. Ironically, Seabrook held his own against Johnny Hockey & Co. better than against the Bennett Brouwer line. But over all five games, Seabrook was on the ice for five 5v5 goals.

    Perhaps most damning are the WOWY numbers for these three over the last five (or four in Kempný’s case). Away from the Smykowski line, Kempný and Murphy consistently logged CF%s of 52+ to 54+.

    Seabrook’s numbers with the Schmaltz line cut two ways in terms of bad. In the 31+ minutes he’s played with the Schmaltz line (with Saad on the left side), the entire regiment has had a 35+ CF%. Conversely, Gustafsson and Seabrook have a 57+ CF% away from the Schmaltz line. It’s almost like that line and that pairing don’t belong together.

    And that’s not even getting into Gustafsson’s WOWY with Seabrook since he’s been called up (46+ WITH Seabrook, 58+ WITHOUT), or the fact that Gustafsson and the Schmaltz line have a 100 CF% in their four minutes away from Seabrook over the last five. That’s probably more of a sample size mirage, but it makes you wonder.

    In short, it’s hard to find a statistical reason to sit Kempný or Murphy over Seabrook. It would make at least some sense to rotate Seabrook and Rutta, given their similarities in style and handedness, and since Rutta looked good by the numbers against Calgary the first time (54+ CF%). Instead, we’ll watch Q and Ulf trot Seabrook out like he’s Blood Sugar Sex Magik, even though he’s decidedly not that anymore, in the name of genius, leadership, or whatever other White Castle fart excuse they can find to justify this journey toward mediocrity in 2018.

    Stats from NaturalStatTrick.com

    Line rankings & positionings from dailyfaceoff.com, with cross-referencing on NaturalStatTrick

  • Game #53 Do I Believe in God? Do I Believe in Me? – Hawks 2, Flames 3

    Game #53 Do I Believe in God? Do I Believe in Me? – Hawks 2, Flames 3

    Box Score

    Natural Stat Trick

    Corsica

    This was a painful one tonight. The Hawks actually played well, managing to lead in possession in all three periods and dominate in shots, and even Glass Jeff had a good night (and you know how I feel about that guy as a starter, so this should tell you something about his performance). I don’t like to scream at refs and blame bad calls because everyone gets bad calls, and it usually all comes out a wash. That wasn’t exactly the case tonight, but I’m still not going to scream. I might cry in a dark room, though. To the bullets:

    –Let’s not bury the lede: the Hawks basically were unlucky/got screwed by a call on a truly bizarre play. What would have been their second goal, taking place about midway through the second period, was called back after not one but two reviews, the first from the “war room,” the second from a coach’s challenge by Calgary. Hartman and Jurco were scrambling in the crease, and while TJ Brodie was assaulting Hartman, Mike Smith lunged at him (Hartman), and in the ensuing scrum the puck managed to trickle in. It was impossible to see if it was kicked in with any kind of distinct motion, and aside from a deflection off Hartman’s glove, the puck couldn’t be seen in the mess of bodies and equipment.

    This is why the call on the ice of a goal wasn’t overturned by Toronto, but Smith, knowing that Oscar season is coming up, turned in a performance that was enough to get the goal overturned the second time through. The concept of goalie interference has become a complete joke, from Bettman’s shruggy-emoji comments the other day to the nonsensical calls on the ice in various games that get stupider by the day. Nice work, NHL.

    –As alcohol-consumption-inducing as that sequence turned out to be, it was precipitated by some actual quality plays at the blue line. Jurco kept the puck in the zone as he was leaving the penalty box and jumping in, and his shot started the entire process (albeit with a point-blank fuck up by Garbage Dick). Seconds later Kempny made a great keep that led to the net-front scramble. As someone used to seeing the Hawks at the blue line resemble a sieve where the holes are too large and draining spaghetti leads to maddening leakage that you’re helpless to stop, this was encouraging.

    –In the end, though, it didn’t matter because what had the appearance of a goal on a high stick late in the third by Gaudreau was allowed to stand. It seemed clear if not dead certain that he tipped it with his stick above the crossbar, but it was obviously not conclusive enough for the refs so they let it stand after Q’s challenge. Kane finally dialed up his give-a-shit meter to get it to 3-2, but it was with barely five seconds left in the game (after he had missed on a couple good chances earlier), so it did nothing. Two calls went the Flames’ way tonight and the Hawks didn’t play well enough to overcome it. And now the hole they’ve dug themselves just got much, much deeper.

    – The 3M line was good but didn’t dome the Toews line tonight. Through the second period they actually had a CF% at 40 and less. It wasn’t until the third period that they got above 50%. Tkachuk and Backlund combined for 5 shots so they got it together eventually, but at least they didn’t kick the shit out of everyone?

    – The Fels Motherfuck almost made an appearance tonight. After we decided on this week’s podcast that Ryan Hartman basically sucks—for reasons that are not entirely his fault—he came out and played very well. Had he been credited with that crazy goal, it probably would have reached Motherfuck status. That aside, he personified the much-sought-after Annette Frontpresence on Top Cat’s power play goal in the first, and at the end of the first his Corsi was 100%. That’s right. 100%. He ended the night with an 86.4 CF%, and three shots. So all that pooh-pooing of the Saad-Hartman-Sharp line was, perhaps, premature, but they still didn’t score so maybe not. With the way this season has gone, I expect they’ll follow a solid performance tonight with an average of about a 15 CF% and trip over their own dicks to give up four goals while they’re on the ice on Thursday.

    –In another test of do-you-see-this-as-half-full-or-half-empty, Seabrook was extra stupid in the second with a boarding penalty while the Hawks were already on the kill. The full-glass aspect of this was that Toews, Keith, and Rutta did a masterful job of killing the 5-on-3. Toews won a key faceoff near the end of it, Keith had a couple blocks, and Glass Jeff, bless his heart, he did what had to be done.

    –Kempny and Rutta seemed like an odd pairing to me before the game, but they managed decent possession numbers (65.4 CF% and 64 CF% at evens), and overall the defense was not terrible. I’m still a little suspicious of CONNOR MURPHY’s illness being the reason he was scratched tonight, unless he was already retching yesterday and that’s why they had him paired with Tommy fucking Wingels for practice. Or more likely, being paired with a non-defenseman waste of space MADE him sick. These are the twisted conspiratorial thoughts I’m left with thanks to the team’s constant secrecy.

    All the teams we’re chasing won tonight. The Wild, the Ducks, and as of this writing, the Avs were winning as well (not to mention the obvious with the Flames getting two points on us). We’ve said it nearly every game that THIS IS THE TIME and they must turn things around, but it’s starting to feel like that may not happen. Even when they played well, they just didn’t get the breaks going their way. Like Ozzie Guillen said, I’d rather be lucky than good.

    Beer de jour: Vanilla Porter by Breckenridge (not usually my type of beer but this is the post-Super-Bowl dregs of my fridge).

    Line of the Night: “The ref’s explanation was garbage.” —Adam Burish, describing the goalie interference call and everyone’s thoughts on the matter.

  • Tonight I’m Gonna Rock  You Tonight – February 6th

    Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – February 6th

    First Screen Viewing

    Vegas vs. Pittsburgh – 6pm

    I guess it’s time we take them seriously. They’re not going anywhere. They’re going to be annoying and stay there. It’ll be quite the emotional night in The Burgh as Marc-Andre Fleury returns for the first time to see the team that replaced him. He had a major hand in two rings and played a bit part in a third. Ever see a horse cry? You will tonight. Given the speed with Vegas tries to get up and down, and how they basically took that from the Penguins, this one’s going to be frantic.

    Second Screen Viewing

    Wild vs. Blues – 7pm

    This one concerns the Hawks, though you may have forgotten the Blues are still a team in the division given that they’ve only played that Hawks once and that was in October. The Wild are a team that has to be caught, so Hawks fans find themselves in the unusual spot of having to hope the Blues take this one in regulation before the Hawks can get their own dent in the Wild on Saturday.

    Other Games

    Ducks vs. Sabres – 6pm

    Flyers vs. Hurricanes – 6pm

    Capitals vs. Blue Jackets – 6pm

    Devils vs. Senators – 6:30

    Bruins vs. Red Wings – 6:30

    Canucks vs. Panthers – 6:30

    Coyotes vs. Jets – 7pm

    Sharks vs. Avalanche – 8pm

  • Game #53 – Flames vs. Hawks Preview/Non-Stop Ho Down: How Can We Walk Amongst All These Gauntlets?

    Game #53 – Flames vs. Hawks Preview/Non-Stop Ho Down: How Can We Walk Amongst All These Gauntlets?

     vs. 

    RECORDS: Flames 26-18-8   Hawks 24-20-8

    PUCK DROP: 7:30

    TV: NBCSN Chicago

    SONS OF OTTO: Flamesnation.ca

    The following is getting into “Jimini Jillickers!” territory, but tonight begins a crucial stretch for the Hawks. If that stretch didn’t already start last Saturday. Or after the break. Or a month ago. I’ve declared so many of these fucking things it’s impossible to keep track. The bottom line is the Hawks need to kick this pick if the last month or so of the season is going to matter. And we’ll probably say that again soon.

    The Hawks get seven of the next 10 at home, except that hasn’t been a panacea for anything for them this year. Three of those home games are against teams that are with them in the Western muddle around the last playoff spot, tonight against Calgary, next week against the Ducks, and Saturday against the Wild. They basically need to take all three in regulation, plus a few others. If they don’t eat well at home over the next three weeks, then you’ll know it’s over. There’s another thing I’ve said way too often.

    Apparently Joel Quenneville gets the desperation, as he’s throwing more shit at the wall in the hopes of proving his geniusness once again. “GENTLEMEN! I HAVE INVENTED….THIS LINEUP!”

    It has a new 3rd/4th line, depending on your point of view, of Saad-Hartman-Sharp. I guess there’s some benefit in cloistering your three biggest disappointments altogether, and hoping the mass ennui just turns itself into a positive force. I have no idea what it’s supposed to do, though Hartman and Saad could actually do something if they had a playmaker with them to get them in space where they perform better. Sharp is not that guy, but there aren’t any other options besides Wingels or Bouma so let’s just go with this. Give them the same instructions that have made Jurco-Kampf-Vinnie Smalls successful. Just do shit and do it fast, even if Sharp isn’t capable. Let’s not complicate this.

    Of course, no desperate Hawks game would be complete without Q setting up his d-pairs while fingering his own ass, so out goes Connor Murphy again for reasons no one can understand. Especially when it involves giving Jan Rutta and Brent Seabrook more time. It’s ok, not like the Flames didn’t run circles around these two just last time out! Glass Jeff gets the start and poor rebound control.

    As for the Flames, they have their own work to do as they sit outside both the wildcard and Pacific playoff picture, which are both open to them. They trail both by one point, and you have to believe this team is going to haul in the Kings because they’re not really any good and the Flames should be. Yes, they have depth scoring problems, though Kris Versteeg seems to be ready to come riding in on his donkey to save the day. Because you know Steeger would ride a donkey instead of a horse. Don’t play. They have the best pairing in the West, a goalie playing pretty well, and a genuine top six. This shouldn’t be that hard but they seem intent on making it so. They’ll be the “Team No One Wants To Play (TM).”

    Worth watching tonight is how cute Q gets with his matchups. The top six of the Flames simply stinkfisted the Hawks top six in Calgary, and that doesn’t leave a lot of wiggle room for Q to get both away from Monahan or Backlund. But there are going to be spots when that is necessary, because the Hawks really need this one. He did it on the road in Nashville and in theory it should be easier at home. But it’s not something he’s done a lot of lately, and we all know Rutta is going to start every shift in the d-zone against Monahan and Gaudreau because GENIUS TREE CUPZ YOU DORK!

    Just kill me already.

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  • Game #53 – Flames vs. Hawks Spotlight: Teach Them How To Get Dougie A Norris

    Game #53 – Flames vs. Hawks Spotlight: Teach Them How To Get Dougie A Norris

    If you’re number-y like we are, then you’ll come to realize that over the past two seasons, you’d be hard pressed to find a better d-man in the West than Dougie Hamilton. In fact, you could make an argument he’s been better than anyone else, even Erik Karlsson.

    Over the past two years, no d-man has a better relative Corsi mark or relative expected goals percentage than Dougie Hamilton. And it would be easy to chalk that up to playing with Mark Giordano, himself deserving of Norris consideration for a long time now.

    However, it’s Giordano who suffers more without Hamilton than the other way around. Last year they spent nearly 300 minutes apart. In that time, Hamilton was still a 51 CF% player. Giordano was 47%. Together they’re 56%. This year they’re at 58%, though Giordano is doing better in the odd shifts without Dougie this time around. Still, as you can see they’ve been utterly dominant together, and without them this Flames team would probably have already moved to Quebec and no one would have really cared.

    What makes the Hamilton-Giordano pairing is it’s not the usual puck mover/center fielder dynamic that most teams go to. They’re kind of the same guy. Both can really skate, both like to get up the ice, and both can get back and recover themselves when they have to. They’re both all over the ice, which you’d think would leave them really open but they both are mobile enough to recover. Which makes you wonder if this isn’t how pairings will be constructed going forward, as Ryan Lambert went over yesterday on Puck Daddy talking about the Leafs.

    Thanks to Giordano, it’s unlikely that Hamilton will get too much consideration. It’s the dreaded “split-vote” phenomena. One will take votes from the other, and everyone will vote for Drew Doughty just because Kings fans keep bitching. But whatever you ask of a d-man, Hamilton is doing it as well or better than everyone. It should be him and Hampus Lindholm. It will be Subban (which is fine) and Klingberg because their leading their teams in scoring.

    Which makes you wonder why teams seem intent on trading him. As we all know, Boston didn’t want to sign him and shipped him off to Calgary for three draft picks, none of which have made it up yet to The Hub. Sure, the Bruins look to have recovered by there still doesn’t seem to be a Chara-succession plan and Hamilton would have been a big part of that. And the Brandon Carlo dream will end one day. Earlier this season and over the summer there were rumors flying that the Flames were looking to move him along as well. He must be a raging asshole or something.

    Somehow, Hamilton is only 24 and with Giordano looking this spry the Flames look to be set for a long while at the back. If they can somehow get the plague that Travis Hamonic has become and cure T.J. Brodie, they’ll be even better off. It’s an expensive top three though, clocking in at a combined $17 million combined. This might be the reason the Flames thought about moving Dougie along. They don’t have anyone to pay yet this summer except for Mikael Backlund, but if underlying numbers are used in contract negotiations then he’s getting a raise from his $3.5 million. It’s the summer after that that could be worrisome, when Ferland and Tkachuk are up. The Flames need a rising cap, for sure. Though they’ll probably just cry poor thanks to their arena and try to use that to get the city of Calgary to pay for a new one.

    Either way, whatever the Flames do this spring is probably going to be on the back of Dougie, whether they want him or not.

     

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  • Game #53 – Flames vs. Hawks Q&A: Mike Pfeil of HockeyGraphs And The Underworld

    Game #53 – Flames vs. Hawks Q&A: Mike Pfeil of HockeyGraphs And The Underworld

    Mike Pfeil is a stats-y guy at Hockeygraphs.com. He’s also a weirdo. So he’s our type of guy. Follow him @MikeFAIL. These were the questions we put to Floob on Saturday, and now Mike gets his chance. 

    Last time we saw the Flames on New Year’s Eve, they were just hovering around the last playoff spot, not meeting expectations, and still waiting to take off. A month later, they’re hovering around the last playoff spot, kind of not meeting expectations, and waiting to take off. Why hasn’t it come to a boil in Calgary?
    The power play for starters, something that has approached near-catastrophically disappointing levels. On one hand, you still Dave Cameron, who hasn’t been encased in concrete and tossed in the Bow River. On the other hand you have Glen “Glenny G” Gulutzan being seemingly cognizant to the folly in front of him yet not solving. There’s enough talent at forward to not play Troy Brouwer on PP yet he does it again.
    Also there’s the part where they’re chokers. Some would say that’s “mental fragility” and “they don’t know how to hold a lead.” I say they’re the suckiest bunch of sucks that ever sucked.
    Do we know if Glengarry Glen Gulutzan falls into the “Moron” category or “Not A Moron” category yet?
    He’s a slightly-slightly-above average coach at 5v5. Most coaches and the impacting of coaching is indiscernible from others. If you look at their 5v5 systems (last year, specifically) it was an easy observation to say “Yeah, he’s definitely better than Bob Hartley.”  This year it’s weird and I think part of it comes from fan expectations, often bordering on unrealistic; some systemic changes that have hurt them, specifically in relation to how they struggle at shot suppression relative to last year; and some bets on players that haven’t worked like Michael Stone, Travis Hamonic, Brouwer (continued usage), Sam Bennett, and sub-optimal depth.
    At least there’s Dougie Hamilton, right?
    I fucking love that man. Well, minus the chud-ass Barstool shit he said a few weeks ago. Shout out to everyone who hates that fuck heap website. Play him at 5v4 more than any other defenseman and maybe things will improve. Seriously.
     
    The Flames don’t seem to be in a position to just punt on the season given their development curve, so what might they do at the deadline? And are you afraid it’ll be stupid?
    Going after Mike Hoffman or an actual top six RW scoring threat would be nice. Rick Nash would be neat on retained salary providing his acquisition cost isn’t absurd, but it’s doubtful. Maybe you can fleece Ken Holland, who might be struggling to realize what year it is and pry out a Tomas Tatar or Gustav Nyqvist for cheaper than expected? All that said I’m as afraid as others, but I’m emotionally checked out… providing they don’t acquire Zack Smith. Don’t do it.
    Given that the Kings actually suck and the Ducks are weird, the Flames really should still get into the Pacific’s three playoff spots, right?
    Yes, undoubtedly, providing they don’t continue shitting the bed. They’re going to shit the bed aren’t they, Sam?

     

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  • Game #53 – Flames vs. Hawks Douchebag Du Jour: Still An Airhorn With Stupid Hair

    Game #53 – Flames vs. Hawks Douchebag Du Jour: Still An Airhorn With Stupid Hair

    This is the last chance, barring a very unlikely playoff meeting, we’ll get this year to once again rail against the “reputation” of Brian Burke. We don’t know if Burke has a lot of pull in the Flames organization anymore, or if he’s just there to make the press feel special and manly or whatever the fuck he claims to do.

    Whatever it is, he got there on a wave of bullshit.

    Burke’s rep is basically built on being bellicose all the time, and making old, stuffy hockey writers achieve half-tumescence for the first time in years because he talks about things like grit and fight and heart and everything that makes the same noise you do after a bathtub of chili. Burke threatens to fight other GMs of course and always talks a tough game, which leads you to believe if he was ever actually confronted he’d empty his bladder into his shorts.

    Burke’s acumen is wildly overstated. While he drafted the Sedins and Ryan Kesler and traded for Roberto Luongo, the Canucks never made a conference final while he was steering that ship. And he traded for Todd Bertuzzi, which tells you just about everything you need to know.

    His Cup win in Anaheim is bullshit, too. That team was already constructed when he got there, and all he had to do was take someone else’s assets and get a want-away Chris Pronger out of Edmonton. Real hard job, there. Remember, the Ducks had been in the Final just three seasons before.

    And of course, he did exactly nothing with Toronto who didn’t get good until they turfed him but good. The only Burke picks that matter on the Leafs right now are Nazem Kadri and Morgan Rielly.

    And let’s not even get to all the ways Burke has fist-fucked over Team USA in Russia and in the World Cup, making his 2010 squad clearly a goof when he was too drunk to pick his normal team.

    All Burke basically is Bob Pulford with an ability to string more than four words together. And dumber hair. The Flames would be better off with him locked in the same room that the Hawks deposited Pully that he can’t escape.

     

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  • Game #53 – Flames vs. Hawks: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

    Game #53 – Flames vs. Hawks: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

    Key: CF/60 – shot attempts for per 60 minutes

    CA/60 – shot attempts against per 60

    CF% – ratio of shot attempts for and against

    G/60, GA/60, GF% – goals scored, allowed, and ratio of per 60 minutes

    xGF/60, xGA/60, xGF% – “expected goals” i.e. goals team “should” have scored and allowed based on amount and types of chances and attempts created and allowed given neutral goaltending. 

    PDO – shooting percentage plus save percentage, used to measure luck. 100 is average.

    Time On Ice Percentage – amount of even-strength time player skates

    Off. Zone Start Ratio – percentage of shifts started in offensive zone

    TOI% of Competition: percentage of even-strength time opponent takes of his team player skates against

     

     

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