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Game #55 – Hawks vs. Wild Preview/Board Election: Before They Take It To My Mind, The Doctor Yells, “It’s Party Time!”

By Sam Fels 1898 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Hawks 24-22-8   Wild 29-19-6

PUCK DROP: 7pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago, NHL Network outside the 606

NONE OF THEM LOOK LIKE MARY WINSTEAD IN FARGO: Zone Coverage MN

I suppose the Hawks themselves won’t feel this way. But now that it seemingly doesn’t matter, now that the playoffs are nothing more than a fuzzy concept to them, now that the pressure would seemingly be off, can the Hawks actually play enjoyable hockey again? Just say, “Fuck it, it’s free cake” and go out there and do shit?

Because that’s what’s probably been so dispiriting about this latest stretch. I don’t know that the Hawks have played badly, but you could easily see how tight they were as soon as things weren’t going their way. It wasn’t even leading goals. When they didn’t take two or three-goal leads that their play at times warranted, you could see anus-puckering. Well, not literally. That’d be gross. But you get it. They’ve looked like the weight of the world is on their shoulders, which in some ways it was. Or is. Not sure which.

Which is unlike the Hawks. This is most of the same core group that has stared down playoff deficits and kind of just giggled at the hysteria around it. Maybe something broke in their mentality when they didn’t quite come back from 3-1 down against the Blues two years ago. Maybe it broke last spring. Maybe the vets sense they don’t have it any more. Whatever it is, it’s been a hard watch.

So tonight, and in the next three, away from the expectant and increasingly bitter (and less and less full) United Center, maybe the Hawks can escape some of that malaise. Maybe the juice of another building, where every turnover or missed power play doesn’t elicit groans and jeers, they can be a just a touch freer. They could certainly use it.

They’ll find another pretty angsty team in the Wild, as they’re coming off blowing a three-goal lead at home to the dead-on-arrival Coyotes on Thursday. They did get a point out of it, but when you don’t get two against Arizona that’s bad, and when you blow a three-goal lead to them to cost yourself that point that’s criminal. They’ll have the cayenne pepper on their balls tonight, you would figure, as their hold on the last playoff spot is tenuous at best with all of the Flames, Ducks, and Avs nipping at their heels.

The Wild haven’t been able to get healthy all season, and will be without Jonas Brodin tonight and the next couple weeks to continue that theme. But they’re finally fully healthy at forward, and sport a good three lines that can hurt you. Mikko Koivu may be reserving space in a Twin Cities retirement home soon, but he still keeps the puck in the right areas and has been a nuisance to the Hawks for longer than I’d care to remember. Neiderreiter and Staal are the biggest threats on the team on the line behind that, and Mortimer Parise and Charlie Coyle are skating on the third line right now. We’d laugh, but we’d also kill for depth resembling anything like that on the Hawks.

Behind that it’s been something of a coming out party for Matthew Dumba lately. He’s got 19 points in his last 29 games, and finally appears free to be aggressive and kick it on up the ice with his speed and try and make stuff happen. That gives the Wild two dynamic puck-movers along with Jared Spurgeon, who’s been quietly excellent as he always is. Dumba is better buttressed by Brodin but will have to make do with Olofsson for the immediate future.

Strange for the Wild as they’ve been hot of late despite Dubnyk being only ok. They’re 9-3-3 since the turn of the calendar while Dubs is only carrying a .914 SV% in that time. It’s been pretty simple, either they score three goals or more, or they lose. Given that the forwards are all healthy again, while they don’t have what you think of as a premier scorer, they get it from enough places to get by for now. Though Staal is making a fist of being that frontline scoring, with 16 points in his last 15 games. Granlund has been coming right along with him on that line. So they’re the ones to watch tonight.

For the Hawks, Carl Dahlstrom looks to be making his NHL debut tonight, paired with Connor Murphy ahead of Michal Kempny. I’d get upset about this because both Gustafsson and Seabrook have been defensive sinkholes, but at this point the emotion seems like a waste. Let’s just see what Dahlstrom can do because what can it hurt? Glass Jeff gets the start, and Patrick Sharp looks to be the forward scratch so Lance Bouma can come out of mothballs and that’s a sentence I just typed and now I want to hurl things around my room and out of my digestive track and good lord there’s 27 more games of this!

The Hawks have generally played well against the Wild this year. beating them twice and losing twice in games they outplayed the Wild. They could use more of that tonight for sure. We’re not going to ask for any higher meaning out of this one. We’d just like to not want to numb ourselves after this one is over. Doesn’t seem like much to ask.

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Game #55 – Hawks vs. Wild Spotlight: Fletcher, Bearing Down On Me…

By Sam Fels 1786 0

Being a GM in this league isn’t easy. You have exactly no margin for error, and you have to take that and balance the desires of owner, coaches, fans, press, and try and craft a hockey team out of it. You can do all that, and then there just might be two teams in your division better than you anyway and it’s all for naught. And then once you come up empty, the league does not make it easy to start over. Flexibility is a daft concept in the NHL.

And that’s where Minnesota GM Chuck Fletcher finds himself. Perhaps it was his idea to sign Ryan Suter and Zach Parise until the sun swallows us all for a dump truck of money. Perhaps it was a directive from the owner after having nondescript, unsuccessful teams forever under Jacques Lemaire. Whatever it was, Fletcher is pretty much fucked right now. Which might see him let go this summer when his contract runs out as well.

The Wild aren’t going anywhere. They’re locked into competing for the last wild card spot at best this year. Maybe, if things bounce right, they sneak in, Dubnyk gets hot, and they can win a round or two. But that’s all built on hope, and Dubnyk has never shined in the playoffs. The difference between him and Jay Gallon last year is the biggest reason they didn’t move to the second round then.

And really, Fletcher is locked into bringing this team back next year. There’s no significant money coming off the books. Chris Stewart, Matt Cullen, and Daniel Winnik are the only forwards whose deals are up after this season, for just north of $3 million. There are no d-men who are up. And to make it even better, Jason Zucker and Matt Dumba are restricted free agents this summer. Because they’re RFAs they won’t break the bank, but they’ll be due more than the $4.5 million combined they make now (Dumba could reasonably ask for that himself).

So what do you do? This Wild team still needs a #1 center before it can even think of going anywhere, and those cost north of $8 million or more. No one is going to trade for those Parise or Suter deals, and Parise might be permanently broken after back surgery and just five points in 15 games so far. Nino Neiderreiter or Mikael Granlund would certainly drum up interest around the league, but if you trade them for a forward aren’t you just running in place? You’re supposed to build around guys like that.

You could hope that someone takes Mikko Koivu off your hands, but no one wants to pay near $6 million for two more years for what is essentially a checking center now. The window to trade Jonas Brodin has probably passed. Maybe Luke Kunin is a kid who can do something for you, but if he were something special we’d probably know by now. Dmitri Sokolov is lighting up the OHL, but everyone lights up the OHL. And because the Wild have floated around the bottom of the playoff picture for so long, it’s really hard to find help in the draft in the 15-20 range as they’ve been.

If it wasn’t so punitive, buyouts would be an option here. But because they’re spread out for so long, it’s not an option for Parise or Koivu, and wouldn’t provide that much relief. It should be something that the player doesn’t have to agree to but doesn’t punish the team so harshly if they agree. But that’s not the world we live in.

This is the devil in “going for it.” The Wild thought the signing of Parise and Suter meant they were amongst the big boys. They haven’t seen a conference final or a division championship. And now the Wild can’t even tear it down if they wanted to. If they traded Granlund and/or Neiderreiter, at that point you might as well keep going. Sell off Coyle and Staal and try in include Koivu in something. But when have you seen a team do that?

Parise and Suter have been on the Wild for six seasons now. That’s about the cycle every team gets. But thanks to the system, the Wild are stuck in this one, going nowhere, with no escape. Basically, they’re living your life.

 

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Game #55 – Hawks vs. Wild Q&A: Ben Remington, Who’s Delighted We’ll Leave Him Alone Now

By Sam Fels 2580 0

Ben Remington is one half of Giles And The Goalie podcast, and ZoneCoverageMN.com. Follow him on Twitter @BenRemington.

How big is Jonas Brodin’s injury?
I mean it’s not a small deal, but I’m not super convinced it’s a huge deal either. Brodin had been better lately, but was otherwise having a pretty bad season, after he was protected in the Expansion Draft. It means more ice time for the young offensive dynamo/defensively challenged Mike Reilly, which I’m not opposed to. Gustav Olofsson is almost a Brodin clone, and he’ll slide into the second pair, and I think it’ll be alright.

 Injuries have really hampered this team, but they really can’t use Brodin’s injury as yet another crutch, given his body of work this season.

There was some talk that Eric Staal would be on the trade block before the deadline. Where did that come from?
 No sure, exactly. Is HFboards still around?
I mean, logically it makes a little sense, if the Wild were to decide to sell. He’s got a year left on an incredible contract, and teams would be salivating over that. It’ll be interesting to see if there’s any kind of push to re-sign him, because he’s hitting his mid 30’s, probably due a huge pay raise, and the Wild seem to have some in house centers they want to give more time to eventually. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him dealt, but the return better curl my toes and expose my O face. It’s crazy to think about shipping out your best player without trying to re-sign him, but if you have a pretty good idea that you won’t be able to afford him anyway, there are worse courses of action, I suppose. 

Matt Dumba has 19 points in his last 29 games. Is this finally his arrival?
 I think so. He got off to a slow start but has really been solid generating offense for most of the season, which is why so many of us wanted him protected over Brodin. He’s only 23, and has shown some incredible stuff that has somewhat outweighed the occasional miscue. I think he’s just scratching the surface on offense, and with his shot could be a Burns-Lite (or even full flavor, who knows).
 What are the Wild going to do before the deadline? They have to at least push it, right?
 I think so, but I’m not expecting much, given their dire cap situation. The big contracts aren’t going anywhere, so anything beyond getting a bottom 6 forward type I’d be surprised by. I’m also a little terrified of Chuck Fletcher making a blockbuster deal at the deadline, since he’s on the last year of his contract and there’s tons of uncertainty on if he’ll be back.
 There’s been talk of them unloading Foligno, which is hilarious given what they paid for him and the contract they gave him. By hilarious I mean depressing, but I’d also be almost as happy about as when they fired Kyle Quincey into the sun. 
Where do the Wild go after this season? They’re kind of contractually committed to this group but it’s getting older. Is this cycle complete?
 Ha, well, yeah, I think? I think they’ll keep taking puncher’s chances at the playoffs every year with this core, but it’s hard to see them doing any real damage unless something drastic happens. Dubnyk is the type of goalie to get red hot for a stretch and carry this team, but we just haven’t seen that in the playoffs, or really this season, aside for his three game shutout streak. If Kirill Kaprisov comes over soon, that could change the whole complexion of this team, but something something Russia something something.
All in all I think this team is very much stuck in a rut through most of the Parise/Suter contracts, barring a miracle. It’ll be interesting to see how they try to build around their corpses in 5 years.

 

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Game #55 – Hawks vs. Wild Douchebag Du Jour: We Were Finally Right About Something

By Sam Fels 2024 0

The first time we wrote this section about a player on the Wild this season, it was Chris Stewart. We don’t like to repeat ourselves, but we don’t get to take a victory lap very often. Back then, Stewart was in the middle of a goal-scoring binge based on a stupid shooting percentage. And of course, there were plenty of stories about how Stewart had “turned a new leaf” and “was a new player” instead of the same dolt that he’s always been who just happened to see goalies waving at his shots slightly more often than they did in the past.

Since October, Stewart has two goals. He’s played three games in the past month, mostly being a healthy scratch now that the Wild are getting back to fully healthy at forward. Because that’s what he is.

We’ve dealt with this locally, of course. How many stories did you see in the season’s first two months about Tommy Wingels and Lance Bouma just because they goofed a couple goals, even though every other marker indicated they were the same doofi they’d been their whole careers? Richard Panik, anyone?

This is another thing that seems unique to hockey. In baseball when some punter car-accidents his way to 10 homers in a month, everyone points to BABIP or fly ball rate or luck or might even start whispering about PEDs, though that isn’t really fair. Everyone knows that once the plate-appearances pile up, everything will almost certainly flatten out. Unless you’re Micah Hoffpauir and there are still Cubs fans who think he’d have been better than Anthony Rizzo.

Stewart is the same chucklehead that even the Blues or Sabres didn’t want much to do with. Maybe next time some idiot finds the net more than you’d expect in October, local scribes won’t suddenly be voting him Comeback Player Of The Year, an award hockey doesn’t even have.

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Saad by the Numbers: Tell Me What It Takes to Let You Go

By John Pullega 3596 0

With the Hawks in a malaise, and no answer or savior over the hills, there’s been rabble-rousing about trades. About blowing the team up. About hitting reset. Now, one of the louder calls has been to shop Brandon Saad.

It’s no secret where we at the FFUD laboratories stand on Saad. We were positively thrilled to be getting a proven two-way skater who could flank Jonathan Toews and put The Captain back on track. We thought that he would resume as the force in transition with back-checking skills to boot, upgrading from Hossa Jr. to Hossa Reincarnate. There were even stars in our eyes about Saad becoming a 30- or 40-goal scorer in his return to Madison St.

The lattermost of those hopes and dreams has been crushed this year, but is all as bad as it seems for our favorite Man Child? In times of doubt, we turn to the data for answers, so what do we know about Saad’s year?

To start, let’s look at a claim I made over on Twitter dot com a few days ago.

I claimed that trading Saad would be shortsighted because his ONLY problem was that his shooting percentage was down 3%. Friend of the Program, Jim Brett, said that he wished he could be sure that the shooting percentage was the explanation. So let’s see whether I was talking with my brain or my colon.

First, let’s start where a lot of the pain comes from: Saad’s raw points totals. Through 54 games, he has 13 goals and 11 assists at all strengths. For comparison, Artemi Panarin—the main piece in the trade to get Saad back—has 13 goals and 29 assists through 53 games. It’s easy to compare the two and think that the Blackhawks got hosed.

So, let’s look at the claim I made, which is that Saad’s only problem is his lower shooting percentage (S%).

Saad Team GP Goals Shots SPG S%
2013 CHI 46 10 98 2.13 10.2%
2013-14 CHI 78 19 159 2.04 11.9%
2014-15 CHI 82 23 203 2.48 11.3%
2015-16 CBJ 78 31 233 2.99 13.3%
2016-17 CBJ 82 24 210 2.56 11.4%
2017-18 CHI 54 13 153 2.83 8.5%

Per-game ratio (Shots Per Game [SPG]) rounded to two decimal places for easier reading

Stats relevant to ALL situations

Currently, Saad’s S% is 3.3% lower than his career average prior to this year (11.8%). If we do some math and assume that Saad were shooting at his career percentage this year, he’d have 18 goals, five more than the 13 he has. Extrapolating that over a full season, if Saad were shooting at his career rate, he’d end the year with 27 goals, as opposed to the 19 he’s on pace for.

To recap:

  • Saad is currently shooting 3.3% lower than his career average, on pace for 19 goals on the year.
  • If he were shooting at his career average of 11.8%, he’d have 18 goals through 54 games, and 27 through 82, which would be his second highest goal total of his career, behind only the year in which he shot at a 13.3% clip (1.5% higher than his career).
  • Saad has taken the second-most shots per game (SPG) of his career this year. So he’s getting more chances, and fewer of them are going in than ever before.

Now, let’s take that information and apply it to the bigger points picture. First, a look at what Saad has done to this point in his career.

Saad Team GP Goals Assists Points GPG APG PPG
2013 CHI 46 10 17 27 0.22 0.37 0.59
2013-14 CHI 78 19 28 47 0.24 0.36 0.60
2014-15 CHI 82 23 29 52 0.28 0.35 0.63
2015-16 CBJ 78 31 22 53 0.40 0.28 0.68
2016-17 CBJ 82 24 29 53 0.29 0.35 0.65
2017-18 CHI 54 13 10 23 0.24 0.19 0.43

Per-game ratios (Goals Per Game [GPG], Assists Per Game [APG] and Points Per Game [PPG]) rounded for easier readability.

If you look at the goals per game (GPG) category, Saad is currently just a bit behind his career pace prior to this year (0.29), and that’s while he’s shooting 3.3% off his career rate. If we extrapolate this year through 82 games at his current 8.5 S%, he would end up with 0.23 GPG vs. his career 0.29 GPG prior to this year. While that would be his worst GPG rate since his rookie year, it isn’t so far off as to sound the alarm.

On the other hand, if we assume Saad shoots at his career 11.8%, then his GPG through 82 would extrapolate to 0.33 GPG.

So, a quick recap:

  • At his current S%, Saad’s 82-game GPG ratio would rest at 0.23 (lowest since rookie year).
  • At his career S%, Saad’s 82-game GPG ratio would rest at 0.33 (second highest in career).
  • Even at his current below-average shooting rate, Saad’s GPG ratio (0.23) is at least close to his career average (0.29). It’s a drop, but it’s not precipitous.

Now, what’s really alarming is Saad’s assists per game (APG) ratio this year. Prior to this year, Saad averaged 0.34 assists per game (or 28 assists per 82 games). This year, he’s on pace for a paltry 15 assists. When we consider assist numbers, there are a whole bunch of variables that can affect the ratios. For instance, we’d have to consider the quality of Saad’s teammates (QoT) and the quality of his competition (QoC).

Since people infinitely smarter than me haven’t yet agreed on the best way to turn QoT and QoC into an agreed-upon algorithm, I’m going to try to give you an idea for what might be affecting Saad’s assist rates in the context of which teammates he’s played with most this year. Please note that this method is incredibly imperfect (I’m pulling a Milbury and making it up as I go), but it might give us an idea for why his assist numbers are as low as they are. (For a bigger and better discussion on passing, check out some of Ryan Stimson’s stuff.)

TOI WITH Shots 2018 S% 2018 Actual Goals 2018 S% CAREER Expected Goals 2018 Actual vs. Expected
TOEWS 667 154 9.7 15 15.3 24 -9
KEITH 447 129 0 0 4.7 6 -6
SEABROOK 322 81 3.7 3 5.3 4 -1
PANIK* 289 70 8.6 6 12.6 9 -3
KANE 225 189 11.1 21 12.3 23 -2

TOI in rounded minutes at ALL strengths, stats at ALL strengths, Expected Goals through 54 games

* = With Hawks Only

First, let’s get some obvious flaws out of the way (outside of the ones we’ve already discussed): Toews probably isn’t ever going to approach his career S%, so his expected goals are likely inflated. And Richard Panik probably isn’t a 12.6% shooter in real life, so his expected goals are also likely inflated. And it’s not like these guys took ALL off their shots while on the ice with Saad. But say everything goes perfectly, and the top six guys whom Saad has played with this year score at their career rates. That’s an extra 21 potential assists Saad is looking at just with the guys he’s played with most this year.

Of course, Saad likely wouldn’t convert each and every one of those 21 potential assists among these linemates. And of course, this assumes that all of the shots these players took were with Saad on the ice, which isn’t the case. The point here is that among the guys Saad has played with the most, each one is shooting either below or well below his career S%, which likely plays a role in Saad’s assist totals. Additionally, Saad is currently playing with guys like Tommy Wingels, Patrick Sharp, and Ryan Hartman, who have shown no scoring prowess thus far this year.

So, to recap this section:

  • Saad’s assists per game ratio in 2018 (0.19) versus his career average (0.34) is much more out of step than his goals per game ratios (0.24 vs. 0.29, currently).
  • The players Saad has played with most this year are all shooting below their career averages.
  • The above methodology is at best a stab at why his assist numbers are so low, given the numerous variables that would go into predicting future assist numbers, including QoT and QoC (which don’t have accepted algorithms). Take it with a grain of salt.
  • Saad’s recent partners (Hartman, Sharp, Wingels) are not scorers, further hindering his assist totals.

The numbers above reflect Saad as an individual player. When we look at some of the more team-focused stats, Saad is actually having one of the best years of his career. For instance, he’s currently posting a 58.4 CF% (versus a career CF% of 54.5). And look at the differences among his CF% Rel year-over-year:

Saad Team CF% Rel
2013 CHI 1.5
2013-14 CHI 0.4
2014-15 CHI 0.1
2015-16 CBJ 2.9
2016-17 CBJ 6.4
2017-18 CHI 7.3

Jumping even deeper down the rabbit hole, let’s look at Saad’s expected goals-for percentage (xGF%).  (For a thorough explanation of this stat, click here.) Briefly, the xGF% stat tries to predict the difference between the expected goals for (xGF) and the expected goals against (xGA) while the player is on the ice. Similar to CF%, an xGF% above 50% means that while the player is on the ice, it’s more likely that his team will score than be scored on. Saad’s current xGF% is 53.46, and his xGF% Rel is 5.36. Compare this to some of his other teammates who have played comparable minutes:

xGF% xGF% Rel
KANE 58.46 13.22
TOEWS 55.15 8.56
DEBRINCAT 53.48 4.85
SAAD 53.46 5.36
SCHMALTZ 52.23 1.88
ANISIMOV 50.78 1.71

Minimum TOI bound: 700 minutes, ALL situations

One final recap:

  • Saad’s CF% and CF% Rel are at career highs.
  • Saad trails only Kane, Toews, and DeBrincat in xGF%, and only Toews and Kane in xGF% Rel

So, Should the Hawks Trade Saad?

Short answer: NO, unless.

Based on these numbers, Brandon Saad is a 25-year-old LW whose shooting percentage is down, whose assists-per-game ratio is extremely down, whose possession numbers are on the rise, and who would be on pace for 27 goals and 28 assists (55 points, the highest of his career) if he were performing at just his career averages. Unless you believe that Saad peaked at 23–24 (and it is possible, but not likely), trading Brandon Saad would be selling extremely low.

So, what would it take to get a reasonable return on Saad? I asked our very own Feather about this, and he used Rick Nash as a baseline.

Currently, the Rangers are asking for a pick, a player, and a prospect for Rick Nash, who is on an expiring contract, is 33-years-old, and has exactly three more goals than Saad this year. On top of that, Saad vastly exceeds Nash in CF% (58.4 vs. 49), CF% Rel (7.3 vs. 3.8), xGF% (53.46 vs. 50.76) and xGF% Rel (5.36 vs. 3.55). And wouldn’t you know it, Nash is also shooting about 3% lower than his career average, though that might be the age coming out.

Feather suggested that the Hawks could accept nothing less than double that (so essentially, two picks, two players, two prospects) for Saad. If they accepted anything less, we could assume that the Hawks’s front office has no long-term strategy for this team whatsoever. Don’t forget that Saad will be just 27 when his contract expires, and you’d be hard-pressed to find another well-rounded player like him for $6 million a year.

In short, Saad is having a terribly unlucky year. Outside of his low shooting percentage and outrageously low assist-per-game ratio, Saad is having one of his best years in the NHL. Luck can change quickly, so unless the Hawks can find a haul, I’m willing to wait Saad’s funk out, based on past and expected performance.

Sources

Expected statistics (xGF%, xGF% Rel) for All Players

TOI Stats for Assists chart

2018 & Career Stats (All Players)

Saad’s Salary

Explanation of Expected stats (xGF, xGF%)

Deeper Explanation of Shot Quality and Expected Goals

Discussion of Passing Stats

Special thanks to Jim Brett for inspiring this article.

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Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – February 9th

By Sam Fels 1262 0

First Screen Viewing

Penguins vs. Stars – 7:30

The league’s hottest team in the Penguins, and not far behind them are the Stars.  You saw how they can close out a game last night, except they’ll try to do it against a much more powerful scoring machine in Pittsburgh. The Pens are 10-4 since the calendar turned, and the Stars aren’t much worse as you heard Foley say last night. Penguins forwards vs. the Stars defense. It’s all your irresistible force cliches in a game that you could want.

Second Screen Viewing

Blues vs. Jets – 7pm

After destroying the Avs last night the Blues punt it up north to see the Jets, a team they’re still clinging around for the division lead. Mark Scheifele is rumored to be making his return tonight, which is kind of scary that the Jets have been able to be this good without him. The Blues have played more games than both the Jets and Preds so if they have plans of sticking around they’re going to have to get awfully hot awfully fast and beat the teams around them. Should be tasty.

Other Games

Red Wings vs. Islanders – 6pm

Flames vs. Rangers – 6pm

Blue Jackets vs. Capitals – 6pm

Kings vs. Panthers – 6:30

Canucks vs. Hurricanes – 6:30

Oilers vs. Ducks – 9pm

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I’ve Got No Expectations to Pass Through Here Again

By Rose Rankin 1766 0

**A break from our regularly scheduled Hawks programming**

Around these parts we all ourselves Real Fans Program, essentially embracing our status as regular-ass people following the team we love and writing what we see from that perspective. This approach has always appealed to me because “fan” is all that I am vis-à-vis my teams (spoiler alert: I never played hockey. @ me from now on if you must). So while gallivanting around Europe recently I was curious what it’s like to be a so-called real fan somewhere else in this world. Fortunately, Stockholm’s SHL team, Djurgårdens (pronounced: YER-garden) was in town when my husband and I were there, so I put on my best anthropologist hat and was DEFINITELY not just looking for a place to drink. Here’s what I found:

In enemy territory. You know how the Predators organ-I-zation gets all butthurt about the number of Hawks fans at their games and they restrict ticket sales to non-Nashville residents? Well, it turns out they’re not alone in this endeavor, but of course because it’s the idiot Predators they do it all wrong. Last Thursday, Djurgårdens played Luleå (pronounced: I have no fucking clue, loo-LEY-ah probably, but I swear these are real words), and all the Luleå fans sat in one section. Actually it was one slice of Hovet arena, a triangle of people from the lower to the upper bowl but in very defined borders.

We didn’t have to specify where we’re from when we bought the tickets (which we actually did have to do for an Italian soccer game earlier in the week, but that’s another story), so I’m not sure if this self-sorting is planned in advance, or if there was information marked on the seating chart, or instructions that we most certainly could not read in Swedish.

Regardless of the process, the result was the concentration of the visitor’s fans in one area, which honestly, if Nashville or some other NHL club were to instigate such a policy, would probably be more fun than sitting with a bunch of random Predators fans.

The opposite of this group was, for lack of a better term, the home team’s super-fans, who were based at the end of the ice (think behind the visitor’s net at the UC, from the 100s to the 300s). Since the visitor’s fans were in one section, by default all the other sections were Djurgårdens fans, but this group at the end of the stadium was the flag-waving, singing, chanting hardcore fans. And these weren’t any three-syllable, easy-singalong chants we’re used to here, such as the ever-pithy “Let’s Go Hawks” as Tommy Hawk wails away on some crappy hand-held drum that looks like a prop from a racially insensitive Western. No—these chants changed cadences, had distinct melodies, and while the fans would repeat a verse for a few minutes, they never repeated the same chant.

When Djurgårdens was on a power play, the song changed. At the start of the second period, it differed from the one at the start of the game. Even goal-celebration songs differed. Djurgårdens scored twice, and after the first goal the song was to the tune of Jingle Bells, I shit you not. After the second goal, though, it was something completely different. And both were a hell of a lot better than stupid-ass Chelsea Dagger but that also is another story.

I don’t speak Swedish (obviously), so the fans very well could have been repeating words and phrases, but the Super Fans moved smoothly from one melody to the next, solely driven by some common understanding of what to do next from the repertoire.

The visitor’s fans, hemmed into their section across the stadium, did the exact same thing, albeit with smaller numbers and slightly fewer flags (holy shit, the flags at these European sports games, why are they so into them?). The result was a reverberation of chants and songs that mirrored the change in momentum on the ice.

Wait for the whistle. My stomping ground at the UC for many years was section 326, and as anyone who’s been up in those rowdy sections knows, you WILL get heckled for walking around during play. At Hovet, however, heckling wasn’t necessary because nobody moved from their seat unless it was intermission. And I mean nobody. A few stragglers came to their seats late, but there was no going to the bathroom, even during the brief TV timeouts when they shoveled the ice (done by dudes, not scantily clad women).

There were no beer runs and no vendors walking around because you could only drink in the two designated bar areas on the concourses. Given the intensity of the fanbases and all those damn flags, maybe restricting alcohol consumption is a good thing, but for me used to my $12 Bud Lights bought at leisure throughout the game it was a catastrophe minor inconvenience. Confused yet compliant, we crammed into the bar area where everyone pounded a beer during intermission, but I couldn’t deny the entire crown had a remarkable attentiveness throughout the actual periods of the play.

Shut up, Lana, what about the game? So what was the actual game like, you say? Well, Djurgårdens’s shitty zone entries reminded me of watching the Hawks, to be honest. They won 2-1, with the game-winning goal kind of a fluky play where the puck dribbled past the goal line under pads. It just proved that teams everywhere need luck as much as they do skill. The pace was extremely fast for both teams, and it was nearly 10 minutes into the first before there was any type of whistle, eventually happening for an icing. The rink was NHL-sized, and although Luleå got a late goal in the 3rd, Djurgårdens held on for the win.

Anything else? The crowd was overwhelmingly male. Like by a 3-1 margin. It was a more skewed sex ratio than you find at an Umphrey’s McGee show. I have no hypothesis for why this was—with what we know about gender equality in Sweden I figured women would be just as interested in a hockey game as men (and I saw plenty of men pushing strollers while I was in Stockholm). It’s not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison, but the aforementioned soccer game in Italy was almost an even mix. Granted, Djurgårdens played on a weeknight and Roma on was a Sunday, so maybe that was a factor? Unfortunately I couldn’t ask any Swedish women without looking like a totally weird foreigner (which I already did).

Oh, and the arena had good pizza, like legitimately good thin crust. So that doughy, uncooked Connie’s crap at the UC can fuck off.

Photo credit: difhockey.se (My pictures from the game were terrible and as much I would like to make you look at my vacation pictures, it’s probably a fire-able offense).

Everything Else

It’s All A Problem

By Sam Fels 2628 0

Carping off Good Sir Pullega’s wrap last night, I’ve basically sat here all morning and thought how last night’s game was the perfect showcase for everything that has gone wrong or afflicts the Hawks this season. And seeing as how it very well could be the final nail in this season’s coffin, it makes it even more poignant. But as you know I love to say, you love last night’s game. It says everything you want to say.

Let’s go through it:

1. Goaltending

We can break down the deficiencies on the Hawks roster from here until the end of the world (currently scheduled for next month), but you’re not going to get past this. Thanks to the CBA and the flattening cap, it’s nearly impossible to get your roster of skaters that much more talented than anyone else. It’s why most teams look the same. Even where you think there are gaps, they’re not as big as you think.

So it’s a goalie league. Look at the top of the standings. Tampa, Boston, Nashville, Winnipeg, Vegas, they’re all getting Vezina-level goaltending or close to it. You cannot base success without it now. It may be a devilish task to find 18 skaters that can separate you from the pack, so it’s a hell of a lot easier to find one goalie.

And the Hawks had it, but now they don’t, and you see the results. You’re tempted to not hang Forsberg completely out to dry as after all the Hawks only scored two goals. But goals change games. If he doesn’t let Pitlick’s blast in, the Hawks go into the third tied. Maybe the Stars are still tempted to lock it down as they did in the third anyway, get their point, and take their chances in the extra frame. But probably not as hard core. Maybe with just a slight loosening or a mistake the Hawks can find another goal. One goal changes the complexion of everything.

Looking back over the schedule since Crow went out, you can find a lot of points that Crow might have gotten them. Upon first glance: new year’s eve against Calgary, Jan. 5th against Vegas, Jan. 10th vs. Minnesota, home to the Leafs, maybe in Vancouver, both games recently against the Flames, and last night. Even conservatively, that’s 7-8 points on the board. How much better would things look? Even boil that down to five and it’s a totally different outlook.

And again, Forsberg is merely a backup. He’s not supposed to save your season. How many teams even have a backup that could? Maybe Saros in Nashville? Do we know that for sure? Khudobin in Boston? We saw what he looked like as a starter in the past. Kuemper is doing a fine impression in LA, but he also remains Darcy Kuemper. Let’s just say it’s rare.

I can’t help but think of Montreal a couple years ago when Carey Price basically missed the whole season. Metrically, and by other measures, the Habs were good that year. But none of it mattered because they didn’t get the saves they were accustomed to getting and needed. Ever. And that was that. Price comes back the next year, they’re basically the same team, and they win the division. When you have a Price-caliber goalie, and that’s what Crawford is despite Pierre McGuire forever muddying the perception of him, there’s simply nothing you can do to make up for the loss of him. It’s pretty simple.

2. The lack of a puck-mover

You saw this last night when the Stars went full-Jabba The Hitch in the 3rd. The Hawks didn’t have any answers. They’re not a team built to dump and chase and rugby their way into chances and goals. And that’s fine if you have a quick and creative blue line. The Hawks do not.

Duncan Keith was never PK Subban or Erik Karlsson. Keith’s springing of the offense in the past was his insane ability to create turnovers just ahead of each blue line with a burst of a first step that simply no one else in the league had. He then immediately got the puck up to the forwards with the other team caught in bad positions. He was not a “wheel it out from behind his own net and carry it 160 feet through three guys” guy. It’s why he’s never been a power play QB either. Well, now he doesn’t have that first step, and is still recalibrating his game to that. At times he’s trying to Roger Federer things and try and force even earlier than he did in the past. But that’s often ending in a mess. And he can’t recover like he could.

Beyond that, there’s just no one else. Gustafsson and Forsling were too busy getting buried in their own end to be that guy. Seabrook… well, if he can’t make the pass from his own circles you know how this goes. Kempy is more in the Oduya model in that he can use his wheels to get out of trouble in his own end but is offensively limited. It’s simply not in Murphy’s job description.

So a team can simply stand up at its line, with no fear of being beaten, and force the Hawks to put it in the corners. Which is where…

3. Lack of a forecheck

Here’s the thing. You don’t have to be a really big team to be a good forechecking one. You just have to be quick and determined. The Hawks were never big but could make this work in the past, though it helped that they had Keith or Oduya or a younger Seabrook and Hammer also ready to force things at the blue line as well and squeezing space. They also had Marian Hossa.

Now? Not so much. And I don’t know that it has to be this way. It’s what Saad was supposed to help with. Hinostroza certainly is willing and fast, though maybe just not strong enough. It’s in Duclair too, and he did cause a couple turnovers last night. It’s still supposed to be a Toews specialty. That’s basically someone on every line.

And yet the Hawks remain remarkable easy to break out against, and the defense behind that much easier to get through once teams do. Granted, this is a Hitchcock team and 1-6 the Stars are as solid on defense as you’ll find. But you still have to find a way to even threaten.

I don’t know if they just don’t want to, or they just gave up on weights in the gym or something, but it really shouldn’t look like this. And it shouldn’t look like them trying to come up with Rembrandts at the blue line trying to avoid this and just giving up the puck there instead. When you have a lead against the Hawks, if you just make them go 200 feet there’s nothing they can do. When they can’t play on the rush, they have no answers.

Sadly, the last two things don’t look like they can be fixed in the coming years either, as they are linked. The Hawks don’t have a puck-moving d-man anywhere near ready, unless they plan to toss Jokiharju into the league at 19 (and maybe he could do that but boy is that an ask). Come next October I’d certainly be more than intrigued at what Top Cat, Schmaltz, Hinostroza, Kampf look like with the experience, along with the addition of Sikura and maybe one or two others. But until the Hawks come up with a definitive answer on their blue line, it’s probably all for naught.