Baseball

Series Recap – Cubs Blow Their Own Toes Off Two Of Three Times Vs. Brewers: So You’re Serious About This?

By Sam Fels 1492 0

Game 1 Box Score: Brewers 3, Cubs 2

Game 2 Box Score: Brewers 5, Cubs 3

Game 3 Box Score: Cubs 11, Brewers 4

Whatever hopes I had of the Cubs turning into an actual plus team, or at least one that can fake it, pretty much died this weekend. That doesn’t mean they can’t win the division. They still very well might, and I am tempted to say probably might. They could even win a series or two in the playoffs. Stranger things have happened.

But that’s just it. I’m now sort of relying on the “stranger things have happened” portion of my baseball brain/fandom. This was a chance for the Cubs to play like the big boys they claim to be. They didn’t do it. And there are just enough flaws0–the bottom half of the roster and the bullpen–that can’t be entirely fixed before the trade deadline and will just keep the Cubs from ever ripping off 14 of 17 or something like it to put this division to bed.

It’s going to be the drunk sex-est version of the last two months possible. Let’s run it through.

The Two Obs

-Let’s start right at the headline of the weekend and that’s Joe Maddon’s handling of his pitching staff. Now, according to any spreadsheet or analysis, pulling Hendricks after five on Friday is actually the right move. The value of one more inning out of Hendricks, the max you would get, is not equal to Kyle Schwarber taking that AB which essentially became a leadoff one after Bote homered with no outs. In a vacuum, or usually, that would be the right move.

Usually.

However, that doesn’t factor in the utter shambles the pen is right now, and Joe’s plan to get 12 outs involved absolutely nothing going wrong. With this bullpen. It’s the same thing that got Joe in Game 163 last year (what is it about the Brewers?). Normally, not letting your starter see the lineup for a third time, as Joe chose to do back in October, is the right call. But that assumes you have anyone who can consistently get outs from the pen, which you don’t have. In this case, the actual tools at Joe’s disposal outweigh what the “right” call is.

So things don’t go right, everyone throws too many pitches, and you have to use Strop. Who can claim he’s healthy all he wants but it’s pretty clear he isn’t.

-Then again, we’re not talking about any of this, probably, if Eric Thames is rightly rung up. Check out #3 here:

Or there was a pitch to Hiura before that that was a strike. If I want to be Sammy Sunshine, then the Cubs take two of three and we don’t worry so much. On such margins…

-Let’s skip to today and then get to the rest. Still up four runs, Joe pulled Q to get to a pen that just set the season on fire again. Yes, it was a bad 5th inning, but it’s not like Q was getting whacked around. The walks were bad, but he had gotten Saladino to strike out, Cain to lazily fly out, and Yelich’s double was off his fists and simply flared out to the right spot. Yes, you’ve got the off day tomorrow, but you still need innings from your starter. Joe got away with this, but had it gone balls-up it was not hard to see Joe looking for a job by Tuesday.

-Of his last eight outings, Cishek has only managed a clean one in two of them (no hits, no runs). He’s going to be toast earlier this season than last because Joe goes to him five times a week. Using him in the 8th last night was inexplicable, and Wick getting the Cubs out of it only made it more so. Yeah yeah yeah, not wanting to toss an untested kid into big spots and all that. Well that’s if the rest of your pen isn’t disgruntled clowns. He’s here, he has to pitch. This isn’t so hard.

-Right, to Kimbrel. I feel like anything this season we’re just going to have to live with, given the weird build-up for him. The dude probably hasn’t had March-June off since he was like eight years old. Most of the time he’ll look fine if not great. But there are going to be spotty outings, and that’s even with ceding the fact that sometimes the reigning MVP will just do that to you sometimes.

-Maybe moving out of the leadoff spot leads to the Schwarber binge. Maybe it’s too much pressure. That’s two high-leverage situations he finally homered in, so that’s a whole thing. That second homer is a juiced ball joke there, as that was a defensive swing. Then again, so was Yelich’s last night, so it giveth and taketh away.

-The importance of walks and hustle. Happ extends two innings for Schwarber. Contreras beats out some shoddy Brewer defense before Caratini’s homer. At least this was the kind of shit the Cubs weren’t doing earlier.

-Bryant looked terrible the past two days, and it would be a major surprise if he escapes an IL stint to deal with the knee that’s bothering him.

Hey, it could all still look ok with a sweep of the Cardinals. Onwards…

Baseball

Series Preview – Cubs vs. Brewers: Please Stand Up

By Sam Fels 1201 0

vs.

RECORDS: Cubs 55-47   Brewers 54-50

GAMETIMES: Friday 7:10, Saturday 6:10, Sunday 1:10

TV: NBCSN Friday, ABC 7 Saturday and Sunday

YA HEY DERE: Brew Crew Ball

PITCHING MATCHUPS

Kyle Hendricks vs. Gio Gonzalez

Jon Lester vs. Chase Anderson

Jose Quintana vs. Zach Davies

PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

Kyle Schwarber – LF

Javier Baez – SS

Kris Bryant – RF

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Willson Contreras – C

Robel Garcia – 2B

David Bote – 3B

Ian Happ – CF

PROBABLE BREWERS LINEUP

Lorenzo Cain – CF

Christian Yelich – RF

Yasmani Grandal – C

Mike Moustakas – 3B

Ryan Braun – LF’

Eric Thames – 1B

Keston Hiura – 2B

Orlando Arcia – SS

 

Let’s cast our mind back to 2008. At the end of July that year, a Cubs team that had stormed out of the gates had a bit of a slip, and the Brewers behind them had gotten within touching distance. A series at this time was billed as a division decider, or at least a big indicator. The Cubs proceeded to turn the Brewers brains into mush for four games, and the division was never under discussion again.

To 2015. The Cubs had gotten into the wildcard discussion, but entered a four-game series against the wildcard leading Giants three games back. They beat the Giants every which way twice for four games, moved into the wildcard spot behind the Pirates, never looked back.

2016. The Cubs had stomped all over the NL for the entire season so they never actually had to worry about this shit.

2017. A little later in the season, but a Cubs team that kind of muddled through the whole season trying to find ways to shove its head up its rectum faced six games in September against the Cardinals. They took five of them, including clinching the division in St. Louis and making them watch.

2018. The Cubs faced a decisive Labor Day weekend series in Milwaukee. They got what appeared to be a season-defining, game-turning homer from Anthony Rizzo off Josh Hader, and everything seemed poised to right itself.

Then Carl Edwards Jr. went to the zoo, and you know how the rest goes. See the difference?

It feels like the rest of this road trip is one of those moments for these Cubs. Six games against the other competitors in the Central. On the road, where they have to unfuck themselves tout suite if they have any designs of being something. A scuffling Brewers team that can’t get a start from anyone and has a couple players decaying rapidly in the outfield. The Cubs can’t end the Brewers season here, not with two months to go and the gap so small. But they can certainly make it more challenging, and they can throw some serious questions the Brewers would have to wrestle with. Although, they could end up doing the same to themselves.

Since June 1st, the Brewers are 22-24. In that time, they have a 5.22 ERA from their starters and a 4.69 ERA from their relievers, which is worse than the Cubs even if you don’t believe it. They haven’t even hit that well, though fifth in the worse-than-you-thought NL in the past seven weeks. But that’s what’s kept them somewhat afloat, though the generous nature of the division hasn’t hurt them either.

Yelich you know about. Hiura has done his part to fill in as well, but Moustakas has cooled off considerably since his mega-start. Ryan Braun will occasionally flash the form of old, and he assuredly will again this weekend because that’s what we’ve been sentenced to for our perceived sins, but a lot more of the time he looks like he got his foot stuck in a garbage can. Eric Thames has taken up the mantle after Jesus Aguilar went back to whatever upside-down he emerged from last year, but hasn’t quite matched the production of Aguilar of ’18. Lorenzo Cain died, and yet still hits leadoff for this team. You could argue Craig Counsell has been beholden to name value too much, as Braun and especially Cain probably don’t deserve to hit as high in the lineup as they have based on what they’ve done this year.

He’s got bigger problems in the rotation, though. Brandon Woodruff just went TWANG! and is out until September. Chase Anderson and Kyle Davies have kept the ship afloat of late, but Jhoulys Chacin went back to being Jhoulys Chacin and Gio Gonzalez has been meat for everyone but the Cubs for years now. The Cubs will get a chance to put that right tonight, though consider their struggles against lefties–i.e. having to play some or all of Almora, Bote, and until now Russell–don’t hold your breath. If any lefty can get the Cubs bats going, it’s Gonzalez, who is striking out all of two hitters per nine the past month.

The problems extend to the pen as well. It was never going to match last year’s dominance, because that’s not what pens do. Hader has been good, at times more so, but at other times gettable as he’s actually given up homers this season. Freddy Peralta has some scary strikeout numbers of late but also some scary walk numbers, too. You go ahead and trust Jeremy Jeffress long term if you choose, you can get your pleasure through pain, y’know. Junior Guerra? Get outta here.

For the Cubs, they made a small move today in telling Tim Collins to do one while picking up Derek Holland from the Giants. Holland’s numbers are horrific, but mostly as a starter. Here he’ll be asked to get lefties out, which he’s done pretty effectively. This is exactly the kind of move you make for a bullpen. Costs you nothing, might get something.

In addition, Ian Happ is up, though no word if he’ll go straight into the lineup or not. You’d have to believe he will though, and he’s been better this year right-handed so that’ll just about do it for Almora’s playing time for a while. He could also be playing left for Schwarber to sit against a lefty. We’ll see.

No more bullshit. The Cubs have it in their hands for the next seven days. Do the thing, get yourself out ahead, and play with a lead. Time to play like you were designed or to shut the fuck up about it.

Baseball

Brewers Spotlight: In The Midnight Hour

By Sam Fels 1264 0

Christian Yelich will tell you there haven’t been any swing changes. He’s not trying to make a more uppercut swing. Cubs fans will tell you it’s all the product of strange vents and signals at Miller Park. Brewers fans will tell you they just got the right player at the right time. There’s obviously way more to it and different than that, but whatever the cause, the Brewers have a player who is living in Trout-land this year (you really need to take a minute to consider that as bananas as Yelich’s season is, this is the year Trout puts up every time out. This is just the norm for him. He just shits them out).

While it certainly hurts that the Cubs placed calls to the Marlins about Yelich only to watch him go up the wrong side of I-94, they never could have matched the package the Brewers sent south, nor could anyone have predicted this is what the Brewers would get. While Yelich was certainly entering or had just entered his prime upon moving from Miami to Milwaukee, you don’t expect this kind of spike. “Spike” probably doesn’t even convey it correctly. “Eruption” comes closer.

So what’s fueling the jump from his Marlins days to last year, and last year to this year? Appears to be a couple things, but we’ll see if we can’t find out.

As a Marlin, Yelich used to be your gap-to-gap, line-drive guy. And he still hits a fair amount of line-drives, but over the past two seasons he’s been less and less concerned with going the opposite way. Though when your home stadium rigs your pulled fly balls to ride the jet stream into the bratwurst of Bob and Beverly from Fond du Lac, why wouldn’t you pull the ball as much as you could? Yelich’s opposite field percentage dropped to 27% last year from its usual perch around 30%, and this year it’s a mere 20% as he’s gone whole-hog on the grip-and-rip-it school of hitting philosophy.

He’s taken that last part to a bit of an extreme this year, as he’s swinging at almost 10% more pitches in the zone than he did last year. For the first time in his career he’s above league-average in that department. And much like Anthony Rizzo, there doesn’t seem to be too many places you can go on him now that he can’t get to and do something with. Look at this stupid chart:

So like, low and in is just about the only place. But he can cover all the way past the outside corner while also being able to turn on anything on his hands, keep it fair and send it far. That’s a pretty small target to hit to find salvation on him. Even compared to last year, you really have to go to the extremes to make him miss, and he’s still awfully disciplined so he’s not going to chase the ridiculous:

So yeah, you can’t throw strikes to him because he’ll crush those, and he won’t chase but if he does he’ll probably get to those too and deposit it in a gap somewhere. Great.

Yelich is also hitting the ball harder than just about anyone else, though he always has. His average exit-velocity has always been 92 MPH or above, except for his last year in Miami. So all the Brewers had to do was to encourage him to get it higher, and well here you go. There’s been a ridiculous spike in that this year, with 38.5% of his contact being considered fly balls, compared to just 23% last year. And this is where you might see some swing changes:

So everything in the middle of the zone he’s sending up now, same goes for high in the zone, and even above the zone he’s putting into the air. And in case you think he’s wasting his time going above the zone, he’s slugging over 1.000 in each of the three spots above the strike zone. You can’t beat him high. But go low in the zone and he thwacks those for the line-drives he still puts up and slugs over 1.000 there too. So yeah, you’re fucked.

And the Brewers have needed it to hang on in the Central, thanks to Lorenzo Cain turning into a fine paste at the plate and Jesus Aguilar running dropping and breaking the vial of magic elixir he had leftover from last year. No one has backed up MVP wins in the NL in a decade since Pujols did it. Cody Bellinger will have a say, but the Dodgers are going to be fine if he drops off a bit. The Brewers need every single bit of this from Yelich. Lucky it looks like this is what he is now.

Baseball

Series Preview – White Sox vs. Twins: Monkey Knife Fight

By Andy Jonathan 2232 0

vs.

Records: Twins 61-40   White Sox 45-54

Gametimes: Thursday & Friday 7:10/Saturday 6:10/Sunday 1:10

TV: Thursday/Friday/Sunday NBCSN – Saturday WGN

Ozzie Guillen’s Kryptonite: Puckett’s Pond

Pitching Matchups:

Jose Berrios vs. Lucas Giolito

Michael Pineda vs. Dylan Cease

Martin Perez vs. Chevy Nova

Kyle Gibson vs. Dylan Fucking Covey Again

PROBABLE TWINS LINEUP

  1. Max Kepler – CF
  2. Jorge Polanco – SS
  3. Nelson Cruz – DH
  4. Mitch Garver – C
  5. Marwin Gonzalez – RF
  6. Eddie Rosario – LF
  7. Jonathan Schoop – 2B
  8. Luis Arraez– 3B
  9. Miguel Sano – 1B

 

PROBABLE WHITE SOX LINEUP

  1. Leury Garcia – RF
  2. Yoan Moncada – 3B
  3. Jose Abreu – 1B
  4. James McCann – C
  5. Ryan Goins – SS
  6. Jon Jay – LF
  7. AJ Reed – DH/Appetizers
  8. Yolmer Sanchez – 2B
  9. Adam Engel – CF

 

Here we go again with these guys. Since the last meeting between the two rivals, the Sox and Twins haven’t exactly covered themselves in glory. The Twins have gone 9-10 whilst the Sox shit all over themselves post-ASB to the tune of 6-10. The Twins come into the series having given up approximately 3,000 runs to the Yankees while scoring 2,900 in a series where the Bronx took two of the three. The Sox did the opposite, giving up hardly anything to the Marlins but not hitting anything after the first night win.The Twins could really use a series win to turn their fortunes around, and the Sox could use a few wins to build momentum of their own after gagging out two losses against one of the league’s worst teams.

The Twins come into the series as one of the hotter hitting teams in the AL. Unfortunately for them, the Regression Monster has come home to roost for their starting rotation, which has been giving up as many runs as the Twins have been blasting out. Jake Odorizzi, Martin Perez, and Michael Pineda have all seen their ERA rise dramatically in the past few weeks. Even staff ace Jose Berrios has had a few rough outings of his own, though not to the extent of the other three. Kyle Gibson is the trend breaker, as he was never that good to begin with so he didn’t have that far to fall.

Like I mentioned above, the offense for the Twinkies has been carrying them to most of their wins. Polanco, Cruz, Rosario, and Kepler have been banging out hits at an alarming rate, and Miguel Sano has cut his strikeouts and gotten his OBP up to more respectable levels to go along with his considerable power. The Twins are still missing wunderkind Byron Buxton, who’s been banished to the dark room with a case of brown brain after making yet another highlight reel diving catch in center field. CJ Cron, who had been having a pretty solid year as well, goes back on the IL with more thumb issues, forcing Sano into the field and a call up for prospect Luis Arraez. Arraez has acquitted himself pretty will to the MLB level so far, sitting with a .379 average and over .900 OPS. Granted its a small sample size with less than 150 at bats under his belt, but still not too shabby.

The Sox on the other hand are having trouble putting the bat on the ball, despite the nine-run outburst Monday night against the Fish. They’ve struck out 32 times as a team in the last three games, and that’s with facing only one real quality pitcher in Caleb Smith. The starting rotation has improved, with the exception of Dylan Covey, who is unable to make it through an opposing lineup more than 1.5 times per night. This could be helped with an opener, but alas this is a bridge too far for Renteria who just wants you off his lawn. Yoan Moncada is the only player hitting consistently right now, as Abreu is scuffling and regression seems to have come for McCann. Eloy and Anderson can’t get back here fast enough to provide some protection for these guys. Lucas Giolito and Berrios go head-to-head Thursday night in a marquee pitching matchup for Guys Who Are Really Good But ESPN Doesn’t Know Who They Are. Dylan Cease gets his first stiff test of a lineup that can put any of your mistakes into orbit, so control of his fastball his going to be key. Nova is Nova, so lets just hope everybody hits for him again.

Taking the series or even splitting with Minnesota would go a long way to washing the taste of dirt out of the Sox collective mouths after the Miami series. If it’s gonna happen, Giolito is gonna have to be on his game tonight and set the tone. Lets go Sox, get me some more beers.

Baseball

Twins Spotlight: DoH

By Andy Jonathan 1879 0

I’m gonna whip (like throw, not WHIP) some stats at your dome:

.258/.342/.431  17.0 WAR

.237/.320/.421  3.8 WAR

Those are the production stats the Twins and the White Sox have gotten out of their DH position since 2010 according to Fangraphs. Care to guess which is which? I chose 2010 when I ran these stats because 2009 was the last time the Sox got positive production from the DH position, and it was Jim Thome that was providing it. The next year the Sox let him walk, and he jumped right on I-94 and went north to Minnesota. Wanna get more depressed?  Here’s the list of primary DH players for the two teams in that time span:

SOX                                                                                    

2010: Mark Kotsay .239/.306/.376

2011: Adam Dunn .159/.292/.277

2012: Adam Dunn .204/.333/.468

2013: Adam Dunn .219/.320/.422

2014: Adam Dunn .219/.337/.414

2015: Adam LaRoche .207/.293/.340

2016: Avasail Garcia .245/.307/.385

2017: Matt Davidson .220/.260/.452

2018: Matt Davidson .228/.319/.419

TWINS

2010: Jim Thome .283/.412/.627 (!!!)

2011: Jim Thome .243/.351/.476

2012: Ryan Doumit .275/.320/.461

2013: Ryan Doumit .247/.319/.396

2014: Kennys Vargas .274/.316/.476

2015: Miguel Sano .269/.385/.530

2016: Miguel Sano .236/.319/.462

2017: Robbie Grossman .246/.361/.380

2018: Robbie Grossman .273/.367/.384

Those numbers could not be any more different (and provided by BaseballReference.Com). It’s pretty damning that the Twins worst year of production at DH was still better than five of the years for the Sox. It also shows that the White Sox tried just one time to address the DH position via free agency. It failed pretty spectacularly (though Dunn made the AS game one year), and since then they’ve just plugged in random dudes and any production gotten out of that spot was just a bonus. The Twins, meanwhile, have made a concerted effort to man the position with people who will make a difference in the lineup. This season was no different, when they went out and got Nelson Cruz off the free agent market at a pretty good one-year, $14 million salary with a club option for 2020.  Cruz has rewarded the Twins with a .269/.396/.549 worth 1.7 WAR thus far in the season.  The Sox attempted to address the position in a different way, namely signing Yonder Alonso (supposed left handed power bat and noted Good Friend of Manny Machado) to a one-year deal that netted them a solid .176/.265./.290 good for a -1.9 WAR. HOORAY!

I bring this up because I was at the game against the Marlins on Tuesday night where Caleb Smith took a perfect game into the 6th inning. Smith is by far and away the Marlins best pitcher, and he also happens to be left handed. The Sox big counter to the Fish’s best pitcher was to trot out Astros castoff and winner of the “If Sami Zayn Ate Too Many Moon Pies” lookalike contest AJ Reed. Reed also happens to be left-handed, and have absolutely terrible splits against lefties. With James McCann needing a night off, Reed was really the only option (in reality, McCann should’ve gotten Wednesday night off and started at DH against Smith, but Renteria’s lineup construction is an entirely different battle altogether). However, he’s just the latest in a long line of examples of how the Sox don’t care about the position while other teams take it deathly serious.

Perhaps this is the ultimate destination for Jose Abreu or Eloy Jimenez. Abreu definitely fits the profile, but his career numbers at the DH position are worse than when he’s playing in the field. He’s also made it clear that he’d rather play 1B as opposed to DH, so I’m sure that’s something that needs to be taken in account if/when the Sox resign him this offseason. Perhaps this is where Andrew Vaughn ends up long term, but it’s going to be at least a year (probably two) before he can provide any help at the position. Maybe Jake Burger, but both his Achilles tendons were last seen passing Jupiter after they snapped off his body. The other thing to consider is if the National League decides (as they absolutely should) to get rid of pitchers hitting and adopting the DH position full time is that availability of people like Nelson Cruz is going to thin out rapidly as the market for their services doubles. At some point the Sox front office is going to have to start taking this position seriously, as their current system of “random dudes” is not sustainable for any team that has any deigns on competing long term in the AL.

I just don’t have much hope that it will ever happen.

 

 

 

Baseball

James McCann’s Luck Has Run Out

By Adam Hess 1551 0

James McCann’s hot start to this season was easily one of the biggest surprises in the baseball world. He was, well, bad in his first few years in Detroit, never posting a wRC+ better than 95 and never quite adding much defensive value as a catcher either. Most teams will deal with a sub-par bat behind the plate if you can at least be a good framer and/or have a strong arm to control the run game, but if you’re not bringing any of that to the table, you have very little value to the team, even as a backup.

Quite honestly, McCann hasn’t brought much to the table in the framing or strong arm regards this year for the White Sox, either. He ranks 27th in MLB in average pop time, which has him in the 22nd percentile, and he is in the 14th percentile among catchers in framing, per Baseball Savant. There are plenty of good thoughts out there about how valuable framing actually is when we know that by and large umpires are just terrible at their jobs, but it’s still pretty easy to tell who is and isn’t good at it, and McCann is not.

However, the Sox haven’t exactly needed him to be that good at it because he has handled the pitching staff very well, and by “pitching staff” I of course mean Lucas Giolito. While it would unfair to Gio to attribute too much of his 2019 success to McCann, Giolito himself has lauded the catcher for his game planning and preparation, and all of that has certainly helped accentuate (you didn’t know I knew words like that, did ya) all of the mechanical adjustments Giolito made over the offseason to help turn him into the ace-level pitcher he has been this season.

And oh yeah, McCann was smacking the shit out of the ball, which certainly made it all worth it.

McCann’s offensive epiphany was certainly surprising but welcome in a lineup that, on opening day at least, didn’t figure to have more than three or four above average hitters, and that was assuming that Moncada and Anderson progressed (which happened) and Eloy’s natural hitting followed him (which took a month, but also has kinda happened). It was really nice to have a reliable bat that you could slot into the middle of the order and feel comfortable, and nobody in the world thought McCann would be that until it was actually happening. He was seemingly hitting everything, and felt especially reliable in clutch moments. And while I certainly enjoyed it, I always felt like I was waiting for the other shoe to drop.

By “shoe” I mean BABIP. Which until mid-June was over .400, but even when it eventually dipped below that mark on June 14 (if I used FanGraphs’ splits tool correctly) had already been steadily declining. In fact, it dropped quite quick in June, falling from .432 June 1 to .390 on June 14 (but rebounded to a .403 at the end of the month) and now sits at .383.

So, he had been getting very lucky at the beginning of the year, and in a lot of ways that was the source of his outbreak. But that luck at the plate lately has run out. Since the beginning of June he is slashing .241/.310/.447 with a wRC+ of 99, and his BABIP is a much more normal .325. All of that is fine. July is…. ugly.

Since July 1, he’s slashing .197/.234/.377 for a wRC+ of 58, and since coming back from the All-Star Break he is an abysmal .150/.190/.375 with a wRC+ of 42. However, his BABIP in July is just .290 and since the All-Star Break it’s (avert your eyes) .167. So he has been ridiculously unlucky of late, and the results have accordingly looked like Fels on the Monday after an all weekend bender (I have never actually seen what that looks like but I can only assume it’s not pretty) (You’re fired. – ED).

But the big concern is that when look back at his career, a .290 BABIP is actually not an indication of bad luck. In fact, it’d be on the higher end of McCann’s past numbers. In Detroit from 2014-2018 his BABIPs were .300 (in nine games), .325, .283, .300, and .282. That is certainly troublesome when you consider that his season line is currently at .383, meaning there is potential for some serious correction on the way and he could be in for a truly terrible second half.

Or to be a bit less rosy about it, we might be about to see the real James McCann stand up.

There are a lot of questions that are to be raised from this exercise, none of which I have actual answers to. Primarily, as I just referenced, I am curious if the first half had anything real in it that he can build on, or if it was built entirely on luck. There is also a good chance part of this is the result of playing so damn much, as he’s been in 72 of the Sox 99 games this year and caught 66 of them.

In the end, the 2019 season means very little to the White Sox outside of the most important players playing well, so if McCann struggles in the second half it won’t be that big of a deal, it will just make them less fun to watch. But 2020 figures to be very important for this organization, and as such we need to know what McCann is. He’s worth keeping for 2020 if only for Lucas Giolito, and hopefully Michael Kopech and Dylan Cease can have similar success.

The one conclusion I do draw from all of this, though, is that the White Sox should not head into this offseason assuming McCann is their primary catcher next year. More specifically, they should not let McCann’s presence on this roster preclude them from potentially being interested in a guy like Yasmani Grandal. McCann is a good catcher because of his prep work, but if the bat isn’t at least close to average, the glove and arm don’t do much for you either, and he’s back to backup status.

Baseball

Series Recap – Sox Lose 2 of 3 To Miami: Mad World

By Andy Jonathan 1313 0

BOX SCORES:

Game 1: White Sox 9 – Marlins 1

Game 2: White Sox 1 – Marlins 5

Game 3: White Sox 0 – Marlins 2

 

This series loss, possibly more than any other series loss this entire season really fucking grinds my gears.  It’s a prime example why this front office, and to a lesser extent Rick Renteria, are taking what could be a very fun Sox team and grinding it into the dust.  On top of that, you’ve got Steve Stone on Twitter telling us we should all just be happy and enjoy the fact that semi-professional baseball is being played on the South Side.  We should just be happy that instead of bringing up prospects that could potentially benefit from major league experience we get castoffs like AJ Reed.  Instead of signing players in the offseason that could potentially make this product emminently more watchable, we should be happy we get to watch Jon Jay and Yonder Alonso.  I understand that Eloy and Tim are hurt, but REAL MLB teams are able to replace guys like that with players that can at least keep the team afloat.  Instead we get more of the Reed/Engel/Castillo Triangle Of Death.  To quote Lou Brown from Major League, “I’m sick of this nickel and dime shit!”

 

FUCKING BULLETS

NUMBERS DON’T LIE

-On the plus side, both Ivan Nova and Reynaldo Lopez continue their quest to redefine their seasons.  Lopez in particular has gone from “Nickleback Greatest Hits Album” down to about “Mumford And Sons Unreleased Tracks” in terms of quality (Hey, it’s MY sliding scale).  Granted, their 2 performances were against one of the more pathetic starting lineups in the league, but that’s what big league pitching is supposed to do.  Lopez didn’t benefit as much as Zac Gallen did from HP Umpire Ryan Additon’s expanded strike zone, and did most of his work up in the zone where his fastball can do the most damage.  Nova mildly impressed me in going the distance Monday night, but still only threw about 63% of his 112 pitches for strikes.

-Dylan Covey is not a starting pitcher, and trying a fucking 6 man rotation to keep hammering this square-assed peg into the round hole is only going to make his ERA worse.  He very clearly could be the beneficiary of an opener, but Renteria and Hahn are being insanely stubborn about this, and I just don’t fucking get it.

-Jose Abreu looks like he’s pressing right now, and if I were him and saw the collection of stiffs my coach packed around me in the lineup I’d be pressing too.  Every time I see AJ Reed step in the batters box I just think he’s one bad haircut away from becoming Guy Fieri Redux.  Except the real Fieri would have a better chance of taking a slider to Flavortown, if you know what I mean.

-Renteria’s lineup construction is approaching 4D chess levels of confusion.  Tuesday night the Marlins started Caleb Smith, who is far and away their best starter and also left handed.  I know that McCann needs a break now and again, but instead of giving it to him tonight, against Gallen the righty, he did it against Smith.  Who did he start instead of McCann at DH?  Guy Fieri Jr, who’s a fucking lefty.  Who’s splits against lefties are trash.  Who he himself is pretty much trash, since that’s where the Astros put him.

-Yoan Moncada is still batting .300 with an .882 OPS at the end of July.  Hell Yeah.  (He still shouldn’t be batting cleanup, but whatever)

-I’m not totally sold on Ryan Goins right now, but I’d rather watch him than Jose Rondon.  He’s not gonna make me forget that Tim Anderson left on his rehab stint today and should be back in a week.  Yay!

-That’s about all I wanna say about this shitty series.  It’s 2:30 in the morning and I still wanna punch my computer screen.  The Twins are next, and if the lineup looks anything like it did Tuesday and Wednesday, get ready for a long fucking weekend.

 

Baseball

Series Recap – Cubs Lose Two Of Three Vs. Giants: You Can’t Live With The Anal Horseshoe

By Sam Fels 1190 0

Game 1 Box Score: Giants 5, Cubs 4

Game 2 Box Score: Giants 5, Cubs 4 (13)

Game 3 Box Score: Cubs 4, Giants 1

It’s hypocritical after I got emotional after last night’s loss, and there was nearly a hole in my wall to prove it, but sometimes you run into a team that’s got a horseshoe up its ass for a period of time and there’s little you can do. Yeah, four runs isn’t a ton, but it’s also not a pittance. Really, as I went over in the Strop piece yesterday, one killing rally was started by Pablo Sandoval ripping a ball off his shoelaces, and another was ended by him doing the same. What do you do about that? You can rant and rave about more runs, and especially last night the Cubs probably should have found one more, but sometimes you’re dealing with forces beyond your capability. At least that’s what I’m hoping.

The Two Obs

-I’m going to motherfuck Alex Mills into a major league career. That change-up certainly plays at a major league level, but he’ll have to locate his fastball a little better because it’s not hard enough to not get killed when he misses with it (there’s a lot of negatives for you). Still, let’s all hope that’s his last start of the season.

-Am I living in a world where I have to accept Kyle Ryan is effective? His ground-ball rate since June 1 is in the high 60s, which is pretty obscene. These days with the pen, maybe it’s best to not ask too many questions because generally you’re not going to want the answers.

-Perhaps the main headline out of the series is that the Cubs finally punted Addison Russell’s ass back to the corn. Russell himself left them with no choice, or made his position untenable, not only through his play but also by admitting to being careless and rock stupid. I’m not sure the front office cares what the fans think, but I’m sure there were some curious looks from teammates when they read or heard the quotes about Russell not knowing or not following the signs. I’m going to guess they all know them.

All of it is an endorsement for Robel Garcia, who runs the risk of getting found out but can at least hit the ball damn hard. The defense is always going to be questionable, but for a third of the season you might be able to mitigate a good chunk of that through positioning. Hell, it’s what the Brewers did last year.

-I’m going to guess Bryant’s knee-knack isn’t that serious given the way he was paddling the ball all over the field this series.

-Almora had a homer today, and it would be nearly impossible for him to see Russell’s demotion and think he’s immune. He is hitting worse after all. I don’t know if Albert can save himself, and I don’t know that he will even be a Cub this time next week. It feels like he’s gotten pull-happy, but he doesn’t have the opposite field power of some, so I don’t know that being content dumping singles over the second baseman’s head is going to be sufficient.

-It’s just a touch infuriating to watch Chatwood gas the Giants with 97 MPH for four innings and wonder why he can’t ever get in a game. Yes, we know about how the control can go, but that’s not going to get better with use twice a month. Again, at least once a week Chatwood should be carrying multiple innings to save everyone else from exposure. I don’t know what’s so hard about this, but it clearly has never crossed Joe’s mind.

So the first part didn’t go as planned, but basically by coin flip. The Cubs still suck on the road, but now there’s no choice but to turn it up. The Brewers are vulnerable at the moment, and it’s time to stomp some goddamn authority or stop pretending you’re the class of the division. Let’s fucking go. Chimi-fucking-changas.

Onwards…

 

 

Baseball

Calling Up Ian Happ Now Is How We Got Here In The First Place

By Sam Fels 1530 0

I understand where the sentiment comes from. When you’re watching Albert Almora perform some modern performance art interpretation of sadness at the plate these days, or Daniel Descalso do anything, or Addison Russell even exist, you can’t help but turn your lonely eyes to Ian Happ’s numbers lately and think, “Well that has to be worth a try.” And maybe that troika has been so god awful that any player showing any spasm of being able to make contact is worth a look. Fuck, that’s how Robel Garcia got here, and he might just be David Bote II (Electric Bugaloo) but at least something might happen when he’s at the plate.

And of late, Happ has been hitting. In July in Iowa, he’s slashing .314/.442/.614. That’s pretty tantalizing. You are forgiven for thinking it’s enough. After all, Almora has shown he might not be a major league hitter at all, and Russell is right behind him. You figure neither would be able to produce a hot three weeks in AAA either. So Happ has to be better. And by all reports he hasn’t accidentally strangled himself in the field, so…

The truth is for all of them, an itchy trigger finger is (at least partially) to blame for their struggles in the majors.

In Happ’s case, his ascension to Wrigley came after only one hot month in AAA in 2017. 28 games, after a slightly above average half-season in AA. And it worked out in 2017 ok, at least for part of it, as Happ was able to hit for enough power to cover up his Ks. And overall, he was just a tick above average last year, but we know the second half was truly ugly. There wasn’t much of a base to fall back on, which was part of the point of sending him down this year. To build that base. Does two and a half weeks count as enough? Sure, the clock is ticking and with the deadline just a week away, the Cubs have basically shuttered any window Happ might have had to prove he was an answer. Thing is, Happ shuttered it too by waiting until July to hit AAA pitching with the same golf balls they’re using at the top level.

You can keep going on this list. Almora never hit in the minors. His one “dominant” stretch was at single-A for a half season. He didn’t dominate at AA or AAA, and when he was called up in ’16 we were told it was basically for his glove. And then he just stayed, trying to build his bat at the major league level. You can see how that’s working out as you try and suffocate yourself in your work lunch.

Russell’s track record in the minors was a little better, but again his ascension to the majors was built more on rep than production. Setting aside the fact that he’s a scumshithead for a moment, Russell did surge offensively at AA for both Oakland’s and Chicago’s system. That was after murdering high-A in 2013. But his Double-A work was only for half of a minor league season because of injury. He played 11 games in AAA before being called up, again mostly for his glove opposite Starlin Castro, which eventually ended up being on both sides. Another example of a player being asked to do most of his learning curve at the major league level, and Russel has never produced an above-average offensive season as a Cub. And he’s way far from it now.

You could throw Schwarber on this list too if you were inclined. But Schwarber absolutely mauled AA in a way that the other three never came close to. But he still only got 17 games at AAA in ’15 before being called up, and his struggles in his first full season in ’17 could be partially attributed to a simple lack of reps at lower levels. Even his much famed demotion in ’17 lasted 11 games, and he’s at least been average offensively since, but nothing like what he flashed. Was the rush to blame?

Even with Happ’s hot three weeks, that’s still less than two months of success at the AAA level total. Time is of the essence for the Cubs, we know that, but is sweeping up Happ in that again going to give you a better answer? At worst right now he’s a September supplement who would still have a month to carve himself out playing time, even if it’s just against lefties (which he’s been better against in Iowa as well).

And right now, that feels like the best case scenario for him, especially if the Cubs make a move for a bat in the next week. Otherwise, you’d have to call him up, with the team’s playoff hopes hinging on him and a base of just one good month in Iowa. Doesn’t seem like enough.

Baseball

A Different Kind Of Deadline

By Sam Fels 1758 0

A week out from baseball’s one deadline to end them all, and the White Sox are in a different position than they have been. Last year and the year before, it was about shedding anything that wasn’t nailed down, and there was barely anything permanent on the roster. Though Rick Hahn has made his major moves in the offseason, he has cashed in on Jose Quintana, Todd Frazier, David Robertson, Anthony Swarzak, Melky Cabrera, Joakim Soria, Luis Avilan, and Xavier Cedeno in the middle of a season the past two years. The level of activity figures to be less this time around.

Most of the focus will be on the Sox bullpen, where Alex Colome, Aaron Bummer, and Jace Fry are all candidates to be dealt. The Sox have made noise about keeping any or all three, especially Colome, who has another year of arbitration left and figures to be affordable no matter what he gets through that route in the winter.

Still, the bounty on Colome and Bummer could be higher than normal, simply because of Will Smith. Only one team is going to get him out of the plethora (up to 12, reportedly), seeking him. Which means a bunch of teams are going to be desperate to keep up with the Joneses and get their own pitcher who has succeeded in the late innings this year. Bummer has the added bonus of being left-handed, which like every year is found gold (See you tomorrow, Mr. Pocket!). A team watching Smith go to a direct competitor might convince itself of the absolute must-have Bummer is after that.

The Sox will tell you that they can be competitive as soon as next year, assuming something close to full health from Jimenez, Moncada, Anderson, Robert, Abreu, and McCann in the lineup and the rotation manages to somehow stay in one piece (all of this together seems like huge ask at the moment, but that’s life). And along with that, they’ll need someone to preserve leads and ties in 8th and 9th innings, and Bummer and Colome have already proven they can do that. The devil you know and all that.

Seems a little shortsighted. One, relievers can be found just about anywhere, or crafted from anywhere (and I personally believe Carlos Rodon‘s future is that of a Southside Josh Hader, a multi-inning relief weapon, but let’s have that discussion another time that ends with Fifth Feather beating me over the head with his shoes). If Bummer and Colome can bring back multiple pieces, even just lottery tickets, you’d have to think long and hard about that. There are maybe a handful of relievers worth getting attached to in baseball. Neither of those guys is one of them.

And considering the arms race the AL has become, there is no such thing as too much depth. The Astros won over 100 games last year and still added Yordan Alvarez through their system this term. And there are more they could. The Yankees have like 12 hitters. The Dodgers add another mutant or two every year. You needn’t look any farther than the other side of town to see how you can fall behind when your system stops producing, or is stripped, or both for just a season or two. So the Sox may think they’ll be all set in a year’s or two’s time when Robert and Madrigal join the ones who are already here, but you still have to keep going if you want to compete with the aristocracy in baseball.

If Colome and Bummer do that, you probably have to pull the trigger on it. There’s always more where that came from.