Baseball

We Know Your Nature – 2019 Cubs Player Reviews: Yu Darvish

By Sam Fels 1470 0

It was the best of times, it was the blurst of times.

Actually, it was the reverse for Yu this season. He was fighting it for most of the first half of the season. Then he was able to locate his fastball, started throwing a knuckle curve simply because he thought it would be fun, and put up some of the more ridiculous numbers you’ll see. Unless you think a 17-to-1 K/BB ratio in the second half isn’t ridiculous. There is some noise in there, and it’s hard to know what exactly the Cubs will get moving forward here. But let’s try and pick out what we can.

2019

31 starts   178.2 innings

3.98 ERA  4.18 FIP

11.5 K/9   2.82 BB/9   1.10 WHIP

45.5 GB%  31% Hard-Contact Rate  22.8% HR/FB Rate

91 ERA-  2.6 WAR

Tell Me A Story: So yeah, the big thing with Yu was the split between his first half and his second half. He had an ERA over five in the first, and 2.76 in the second. We could keep going with these stats, but you already know the deal here. Yu stopped walking anyone in July, started striking out everyone, barely gave up a hit as he had a WHIP of 0.81 in the second half. So yeah, that WHIP, that ERA in the second half, that K/BB rate over a full season puts you in Cy Young discussion. The question is whether Yu can do it over a full season. Maybe it’s best to try and find what changed to figure it out.

It’s a little hard to do that with Yu, because this crazy motherfucker throws like seven pitches. So he might go to one or two of them more often in one month simply because he’s bored or because it looks like one of his other pitches that he’s just changing the speed on. So his slider and cutter can get confused for each other, so can his curve and slider. Then a split and change and we could just go on here but before too long the room will be spinning.

In July, when things turned around, Yu started using his cutter about three times as much as he had before. It was his go-to pitch when he needed a strike. But in August he went away from it and not much changed. And then he went back to it in September. Yu definitely started throwing his curve in July and stuck with it for the rest of the season. And you can probably see why:

Which probably was due to this:

Clearly, picking up Craig Kimbrel‘s knuckle curve, mostly because he thought it was interesting, gave his curve more bite and something of a wipeout pitch. Or another wipeout pitch, as he’s got a couple.

Yu was very slider heavy throughout the season, although sometimes that can be his cutter too, and he threw it at Corbin-levels of 40% throughout the season. But it maintained a whiff-per-swing rate over 30% for the season, so I’m not going to complain too much.

Yu’s biggest problem was the home-run ball, as it was pretty much everyone’s this year. Yu had a HR/FB rate of 22%, which was miles beyond his career-high. Even in the 2nd half it was 19.7%, which is still very high. But as we said as it was happening, this is mostly luck. Yu’s hard contact-rate against was fifth best in all of baseball, so it’s not like he was continually getting crushed. He just watched fly balls, and some that weren’t even hit all that hard, continually float out of the park. This could simply correct because baseball is gonna baseball on you. He did give up a higher hard-contact rate on fly balls this year than ever before, but then so did pretty much every other pitcher on the planet.

If there’s one thing we can point to, it’s that Yu was concentrating his fastball and cutter a little higher in the zone a little more of the time this season. Which leads to more fly balls obviously…except that Yu had the highest ground-ball rate and lowest fly ball rate of his career this past season. Again, I have to chalk this up to weirdness.

And homer issues have plagued Yu before. He gave up 26 in 2013. He gave up 27 in 2017. He was giving up a homer per start with the Cubs in ’18 before getting hurt. It might just be his thing. If he runs an ERA around 3.00 while giving up a fair amount of solo homers, no one’s going to care all that much.

The usual luck alarm-bells only half-ring for Yu and his split season. His BABIP was actually higher in the second half, though .276 is lower than his career average and probably will come back a little. Except for the caveat of just how little hard contact Yu was giving up. Though that’s balanced a bit by the greater amount of grounders. Yu also had an 85.2% left-on-base percentage in the 2nd half, which is a tad high. He got some good sequencing there, and that could correct some next year.

Contract: Signed for four more years for $81M. Opt-out this winter.

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: Well that’s up to him. Yu could chase more money this winter with his opt-out. But considering what the free agent market has been the past two winters, and he turns 34 next August, it’s hard to see how he’ll do better than the average for $20.25M he’s got now. And he hasn’t expressed any interest in doing so, though we know how these things could change when teams start whispering into his agent’s ear. Still, unlikely.

So the question for the Cubs is what can they bank on from Yu at 33. Can he be that second-half guy for a full season? You’d be asking for some career-best numbers in his 30s, which generally doesn’t happen. He’s probably not going to strike out over 13 hitters per nine innings again. But he’s consistently been over 11 for his career, which is what you’d expect. The thing is, his low-walk ways are the norm, not the wayward inflatable clown he looked like at times in the first half. He ended the season at 2.82 BB/9, which is basically where he was ’15-’17. He found a rhythm in the second half that he’ll have to keep.

The question for Yu is if he can quiet down the home runs. If he has the near 6-to-1 K/BB rate that his 2019 season totaled, but can bring the homers in under 25 or even 20, his ERA naturally is going to sink to between 3.00-3.50.

It’s ambitious or more to expect Yu to be the #1 Power Cosmic he was from July on last year, because it’s not really what he’s ever been. But solid #2 or plus-#2 starter production is certainly in the wheelhouse. It’s not Yu’s fault the Cubs don’t have a genuine #1. If they get more than that, all the better.

Baseball

All The Boys In The Band Know How To Get Down – 2019 Sox Player Reviews: The Bullpen

By Andy Jonathan 1423 0

Now we come to the bundle of pitchers who were asked to work far more and far harder then they probably should have due to the Black Hole of Sadness that was the #5 starter for the White Sox this season. In reality, the Sox should have sucked it up and used an opener for the 5th spot and it took them all the way until September after Carlos Rodon and Lucas Giolito had been shelved for the season. Yet they’ll tell you the front office is always at the forefront of new stats and ideas in MLB.

At any rate, the Sox bullpen over all was pretty solid all things considered. They ranked 15th out of 30 in the entirety of MLB, and were worth 2.7 WAR total. This is a drop from 2018 when they were 8th best in the league with 5.2 WAR, but some of that can be attributed to the 45 extra innings they were forced to throw this season.

There were a few breakouts in the pen this year, most notably Aaron Bummer and Evan Marshall. Both took large steps forward in both their individual performance and solidifying the future of the Sox bullpen overall. Also Carson Fulmer was here.

Much like the rest of the Sox position players, I’m going to pick and choose who we discuss here mostly because nobody wants to read 15,000 words about the Sox bullpen which is what this would turn into if I did a rundown of each person who pitched out of the pen this season (AJ Reed would be here too, and that ain’t happenin).

THE BULLPEN

Alex Colome

4-5 Record/30 Saves/3 BS

2.80 ERA/1.06 WHIP/67.6% Strand Rate

55K/25BB/7 HR

0.6 WAR/4.08 FIP

Tell Me A Story: When Rick Hahn shipped Omar Narvaez to Seattle in exchange for Colome back in November, my eyebrows raised up a little bit. The Sox were definitely in need of a closer after sending Joakim Soria to the Brewers at the trade deadline in 2018 and Colome certainly fit the bill. With an additional 2 years of team control remaining, and a few catching prospects in the minors in addition to Wellington Castillo it seemed to be one of those trades that fit perfectly for both teams.

Colome rewarded the Sox for the trade by not blowing his first save until June 26th against the Red Sox, a game he eventually got a win for when the Sox came back in the 10th inning. He was nothing if not consistent, throwing his cut fastball 70% of the time regardless of hitter handedness. When it was on, it spun away from righties, and burned into the hands of lefties alike. He didn’t get a lot of strikeouts, averaging less than 1 per inning, but he induced a lot of weak contact and ground balls. With a 4.08 FIP and a 67.6% strand rate it would seem that Colome is living on the edge of falling apart completely, and while some of us were expecting it, the explosion never truly came.

Contract: Colome is in his final year of arbitration in 2020, and is projected to come in at about $10.3 million.

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: It seems this will be a welcome back for Colome, as the Sox had a few chances to move him at the deadline to a contender and chose instead to stand pat. There is a possibility he’s moved during the winter meetings, but I don’t see the market for closers being anything different in December than it was in July. $10 million is a pretty high price for a closer who’s peripherals say he’s close to imploding, but with not much other than Kelvin Herrera with experience shutting down games the Sox are probably gonna ride it out with Colome.

 

Aaron Bummer

0-0 Record/1 Save

2.13 ERA/0.99 WHIP/82.3% Strand Rate

60K/20BB/4 HR

1.3 WAR/3.14 FIP

Tell Me A Story: Here we come to the first success story out of the Sox bullpen, Aaron Bummer. This was his 3rd year with the big club since being drafted by the Sox in 2014 after holding out on the Yankees by returning to college. Bummer seemed to be a known quantity in his first two seasons, posting 4.5ish ERAs with similar walk and strikeout numbers. He started the season down in Charlotte and didn’t see his first action until the end of April. He never looked back, as he posted career high numbers in innings pitched and strikeouts.

He also became the most reliable lefty out of the Sox bullpen since Matt Thornton departed for the greener pastures of Boston. Lefties only hit .178 against him, and righties didn’t fare much better at .188. He credited his success this season to an increase in velocity of about 2 mph. This extra heat has helped his fastball move a little more, and added some drop on his cutter. He also ditched throwing the slider, only tossing it 6.6% of the time in 2019 down from 37% in 2016.

The last month of the season was the least successful for him, but it’s understandable as he almost doubled the innings he threw from 2018 so some of that can be attributed to wear and tear. Despite the rough September, this season is nothing short of a success for Bummer, and the Sox may have found themselves another piece of The Future™

Contract: Bummer earned $550,000 last season and is under team control until 2025. He doesn’t hit arbitration until 2022.

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: There was some scattered talk about the Sox selling high on Bummer and moving him at the trade deadline, but that seemed more like wishful thinking from opposing GMs than actual heat. Bummer’s career year in 2019 has earned him a high leverage spot out of the pen to start 2020 and I expect him to stay there for awhile.

 

Evan Marshall

4-2 Record

2.49 ERA/1.30 WHIP/84.8% Strand Rate

41K/24BB/5 HR

0.5 WAR/4.30 FIP

Tell Me A Story: Evan Marshall had a very solid year out of the bullpen for the White Sox this year, giving up 14 earned runs in 50.2 innings. While not quite the innings eater that Aaron Bummer was (or nearly as flashy), Marshall was there in a pinch, and with an almost 85% strand rate he ended up being the righty go-to guy that Kelvin Herrera was acquired to be.

Marshall’s 4.30 FIP somewhat suggests that his stats this season were somewhat due to batted ball luck, and his 2.66 BABIP lends a lot of credence to that. The 1.30 WHIP is a little up there for a high leverage reliever, but certainly not to the point where the Sox would be looking to cut bait on him.

Contract: Marshall will enter his first year of arbitration with the Sox in 2020, and he’s projected to earn $1.3 million.

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: Marshall has certainly earned himself another shot at middle relief in 2020 with his performance this season. That being said, Kelvin Herrera looked pretty good down the stretch and there are a bunch of prospects in AAA with hotter arms than Marshall so he doesn’t exactly have a firm grip on the 7th or 8th inning job. What he does have going for him is a cheap, team-controlled contract so he’s going to be given every opportunity to succeed in 2002.

 

Kelvin Herrera

3-3 Record/1 Save

6.14 ERA/1.61 WHIP/65.9% Strand Rate

53K/23BB/8HR

0.4 WAR/4.58 FIP

Tell Me A Story: Kelvin Herrera was signed in the off-season to a 2 year, $17 million dollar deal by the White Sox. This was seen as the atypical “buy-low” type of move for Rick Hahn, as he was getting a former closer with 3 very good years of production on a shitty KC team who happened to have an issue with the lisfranc ligament in his left foot. This kept his activity in the off-season at the same level as MY off-season activity, namely drinking beer and reading comic books. When the season started up, Herrera was noticeably favoring his foot in his delivery though he said that the foot itself felt “fine” it very clearly was not.

During his best years with KC, Herrera was known for pinpoint control with very high velocity locking down the 9th inning. Through the month of June he was anything but that, logging a 7.63 ERA and a 1.81 WHIP with batters hitting .368 against him.With the lisfranc injury still fucking with his delivery, it was no surpirse when he hit the IL in the middle of July with an oblique strain as pitchers who overcompensate for an injury usually create another one.

The time off did him well apparently, as when he returned from the strain in August he hit the ground running. The entire month of August Herrera only gave up 5 ER and all of those came in a single blowup against the stupid ass Twins. If you take that game out of the equation he finished the season with a 1.76 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP with an 11.9 K/9. That’s more like what Rick Hahn was looking for when he signed Herrera to the deal which initially looked like a horrible overpay.

Contract: Herrera signed a 2 year deal at $8.5 million per, with a team option for $10 million in 2022 with a $1 million dollar buyout.

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: Not much choice here but to welcome him back and hope that the version of Herrera that showed up after the IL stint is the one the Sox get for the duration of the contract. If so, the 8.5 million will be very worth the price even to the point of potentially picking up his $10 million option in 2022 if Colome stumbles and Herrera charges in. If he doesn’t look like that, then expect him to spend a lot of time in the bullpen playing candy crush on his phone.

 

Jimmy Cordero

1-1 Record

2.89 ERA/0.97 WHIP/79.9% Strand Rate

31 K/11 BB/3 HR

0.4 WAR/3.78 FIP

Tell Me A Story: After Carlos Rodon’s elbow vaporized like the Death Star in June the Sox found themselves with an extra spot on the 40-man roster and a need for pitching. Enter: Jimmy Cordero, fresh of his release by the Seattle Mariners. Rick Hahn scooped him up and sent him to Charlotte to get some work in with the Sox minor league pitching coaches. He responded well, pitching 16 innings and giving up one measly run. Considering the fact that balls were leaving the yard in Charlotte like Twins fans avoiding a shower that’s no mean feat.

He was called up to the big club in July after Kelvin Herrera went on the IL with an oblique strain and picked up right where he left off in Charlotte. He ended the season with a 2.89 ERA and a sub 1 WHIP. His 79.9% strand rate was 3rd best on the team, and he pitched 38 innings in 2 months showing that Ricky Renteria had no issue throwing him out there whatever the situation. Not too shabby for a guy on his 3rd major league team in less than 6 months.

Contract: Cordero is still under team control through 2024 and he’s not arbitration eligible until 2022, He’ll make $550,000 next season.

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: Based on what we saw during his limited audition this season combined with the fact that he makes the league minimum makes me think Cordero is going to receive every chance to make the team outta spring training. The kid definitely pitched like he had a chip on his shoulder, and you can do a lot worse in MLB with $550,000.

Josh Osich and Jace Fry

Tell Me A Story: Osich and Fry were basically two sides of the same coin for Ricky Renteria this season. Two left handed pitchers with pretty electric stuff but not nearly enough control and too many damn walks. They ate a lot of innings this season thanks to the #5 starter being made of straw and edible paste, but their WHIP and ERA left something to be desired.

Contract: Osich is arbitration eligible this season and estimated to make $1 million. Fry is still under team control and will make the league minimum.

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: Fry will be back next season if the Sox don’t sign any relief depth in the off-season (which better not fucking happen), so odds are he’s back in Charlotte. Osich will most likely be let go

 

THE REST

The rest of the Sox bullpen was filled with “some guys” that should not be back on the major league roster next season unless things go horribly wrong. The exception to this might be Ryan Burr, as his stuff is pretty impressive if he can keep it under control. He’s also very, very cheap which we all know is how Jerry Reinsdorf loves his pitchers.

 

 

Well, that’s about it for me this season. I’ve really enjoyed covering this team in what was an exciting but ultimately disappointing season. That being said, the future is very bright and I hope to see you all back here soon as we discuss the myriad (hopefully) of signings Rick Hahn has made during the winter meetings. Thanks again to Sam for giving me a shot here in the baseball universe, it was a fucking blast.

 

Cheers all,

 

AJ

 

 

 

Baseball

All The Boys In The Band Know How To Get Down – 2019 Sox Player Reviews: Ivan Nova

By Andy Jonathan 1362 0

Now to the last of the starting pitchers, the guy who I thought was going to be a depth starter and a placeholder for Dylan Cease at the start of the year, and ended up leading the Sox in innings pitched after Carlos Rodon’s elbow evaporated and Lucas Giolito got shut down early in September. All things considering, Nova earned his paycheck this year, despite a very shaky start.

2019 Stats

34 Starts  187 Innings

11-12 Record

4.72 ERA  4.98 FIP

114 Ks  47 BB

5.49 K/9  2.29 BB/9  1.45 WHIP

2.0 WAR

 

Tell Me A Story: The Sox and Rick Hahn traded for Nova back in December of 2018 during the winter meetings. They sent 19 year old Yordi Rosario and $500,000 international bonus pool money to the Pirates for Nova and his $8.5 million in what was essentially a salary dump for Pittsburgh.

At the time I was intrigued by the move, as it really didn’t cost the Sox anything in the way of immediate assets and provided what Don Cooper loves best: a reclamation project with good stuff but no real sustained success. Nova was an international signee of the Yankees way back in 2004 when he was a teen in the Dominican Republic. He debuted in 2010 for the Yanks, and quickly turned heads in 2011 and 12 when he went a combined 28-12 in his first two full seasons.

After that, the consistency waned considerably the rest of his tenure with the Yankees and he finished with them in 2015 with a 5 ERA and a 6-11 record. He was traded to the Pirates thereafter and the consistency issues followed him West. Last year he had his best run in a Bucs uniform with a 9-9 record and a 4.14 ERA on a less than stellar team.

His first few weeks with the Sox were…less than inspiring. His first 9 starts saw him net a 2-4 record with a 7.12 ERA. He wasn’t really walking many or giving up a lot of dingers, his stuff wasn’t being located very well and that shit was getting hit all over the place.

After Carlos Rodon went down with his elbow issue, however, something clicked into place for Nova and he went on a pretty solid if not excellent run. Through the heat of the summer months he was locked in, starting 19 games and going 7-7 with a surprising 3.28 ERA. The true highlight was his start against the Cubs, holding them to 5 hits in the start, walking 1 while striking out 5 and getting an assist from Eloy with another bombshot into dead center that bounced off the fan deck and gave the Sox a 2 run lead Nova would keep safe.

If you take out the first 6 weeks of the season, Nova had a good year for someone who would be a 5th starter on most other average teams with a 3.80 ERA and a 9-8 record. Something that many teams would gladly take out of the 5 hole in their starting rotation. Unfortunately for the Sox, after Rodon went down Nova was more like the #2 starter with the inconsistencies of Reynaldo Lopez, the Rookie-ness of Dylan Cease and the absolute fucking black hole that was whatever started on the 5th day.

All in all, I would say that this was $8.5 million well spent on a guy who was acquired to be a 5th starter and ended up leading the team in innings pitched. Nova doesn’t strike a lot of people out, but he keeps the walks down and when effective keeps the ball in the park. You could (and the Sox did…hello Dylan Covey!) do much worse.

Contract: Made $8.5 million in 2019, the last year of his deal. Unrestricted free agent in 2020.

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: As well as Nova performed this season in the position he was put in by the Sox, he’s just not going to be necessary next year. His spot in the rotation will most likely be filled by Reynaldo Lopez as Michael Kopech, Gerrit Cole (Hi Fels!) Dylan Cease and Lucas Giolito take the other spots with Carlos Rodon and his rehab waiting in the wings. Thanks for your help in making this summer a little more watchable, Ivan. Best of luck to you in Toronto.

 

Baseball

We Know Your Nature – 2019 Cubs Player Reviews: Kyle Hendricks

By Sam Fels 1319 0

Maybe there will come a point where I can just fully enjoy the work of The Cerebral Assassin and not have this niggling little voice in the back of my head that fears when the bottom will drop out on him. I’m not the only one, I know. You see the stuff and wonder just how long the magic can go on, even though it’s gone on this long. When will I not worry that the tiny margins of error Hendricks has will be eaten up by just a tick of a loss in velocity or movement, and suddenly he’s going to be crab meat for everyone. It’s been four years of this. Four years of being one of the best pitchers in baseball. No, seriously, he is. If you go by WAR he’s 14th. If you go by ERA he’s ninth (ahead of Chris Sale if you can believe it). FIP he’s 23rd. WHIP he’s 12th, nestled between Zack Greinke and Madison Bumgarner. You have to ask yourself how much longer this has to go on before I and others relax. Anyway, over the river and through Hendricks’s 2019…

2019 Stats

30 starts  177 innings

3.46 ERA  3.61 FIP

7.63 K/9  1.63 BB/9   1.13 WHIP

41.3 GB%  10.4 HR/FB%

79 ERA-  4.1 WAR

Tell Me A Story: Quite simply, it was Hendricks’s best season since his Cy Young finalist season of 2016. He set a career-low for walks, and he did all that while actually getting the least amount of grounders he ever has. And that was seemingly by design, which at first you would think is insane from a pitcher whose fastball couldn’t break wind. And yet, Hendricks himself said he was trying to go high in the zone and above it more often, given how hitters had adjusted their swings. The charts are there for all to see:

And it clearly worked. Hitters couldn’t do much with any of Hendricks’s offerings up, as they didn’t manage an average over .220 in any of the three sections of the upper part of the zone .

Hendricks also upped the use of his curve, especially on first pitches to lefties (18% to 24%) and overall to righties, going over 10% for the first time when ahead or with two strikes. He had never really used it as an out-pitch before, but wasn’t afraid to do so this term. I don’t know that Hendricks’s curve is all that good, and maybe now that it’s entrenched in scouting reports and hitters will be looking for it it could be a problem. I also know that Hendricks will probably keep working on it and turn it into more of a weapon than it was, because that’s just kind of what he does.

Durability might be something of a question. This is the second year in three that he’s had some IL time, and he’s only been over 180 innings twice in five seasons. That could also be due a little to Joe Maddon’s itchy trigger finger with him at times, but it’s not a concern until it becomes one.

As seems to be a trend with Kyle, he had a rough start with an ERA over 5.00 in April, and his career mark is around 5.00 as well in the season’s opening month. Maybe it just takes him a little time to find the feel for everything or adjust to the cold. If he ever dominates an April to go with the most of the rest of his work, he’ll probably contend for a Cy Young again. Kyle had a rough August, but that’s mostly to do with giving up six of the 19 (!) homers he gave up all season in that month and some fiendish BABIP treachery.

Contract: Four-year extension begins at $12M.

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: For the deserved kvetching over the Cubs and their payroll, it has to be said that the four-year, $55M extension they signed Hendricks to last spring training is an absolute steal. Again, if you look at the pitchers Hendricks ranks among the past four season, almost all of them are at least $20M pitchers and some are near or over $30M. He might not have any of their stuff or flash, but he has their results. Which in the end is all that matters.

It’s hard to say if Hendricks’s new gambit of going up in the zone will work over time, but the thing about Kyle is he’s always ahead of the game. He’ll adjust back down the zone or something new before hitters have caught up to his elevated ways.

Yeah, there’s worry about the loss of velocity, as even Kyle probably can’t dodge, duck, and dodge his way around hitters if he’s only throwing 85 MPH. His fastball is down a mile and a half per hour since 2016, and his sinker has lost nearly two. But we’re probably a few years from really having to worry about it.

We should just relieved that will all of the variables on this roster going forward, Hendricks is a known known. Even if my brain will never let me fully accept that about him.

Baseball

We Know Your Nature – 2019 Cubs Player Reviews: Jon Lester

By Sam Fels 1492 0

No one outruns time. We knew when Jon Lester signed this contract in the winter before the 2015 season, the end of it could get a little hairy. The Cubs have gotten just about what they could have expected, if not a little more. But the fear is that the END has come for Lester, and the Cubs and him are just going to have to survive the last year of it in 2020. Is there hope for better?

2019 Stats

31 starts  171.1 innings

4.46 ERA  4.26 FIP

8.65 K/9  2.73 BB/9  1.50 WHIP

1.36 HR/9  14.6 HR/FB%

102 ERA-  2.8 WAR

Tell Me A Story: Let’s start with the good stuff, just for funsies. Lester struck out more and walked less hitters in 2019 than he did in 2018. He had a better ground-ball/fly-ball rate. He gave up less line drives. So hey, that’s all good, right? Maybe he didn’t have as bad of a year as we thought?

That’s somewhat true. Lester was undone by a horrible BABIP of .347, 46 points worse than his career norm and a 57-point rise over 2018. That’s just luck…for the most part. Lester suffered from a bad hard-contact rate against, by far the worst of his career. Which followed ’18’s mark…which was also the worst of his career. That’s not luck. Lester gave up an expected average against of .282, which is some 60 points worse than his brilliant 2016 for comparison. It was a similar story with the expected slugging and weighted on-base against him, so though he probably could expect a few more balls to land in gloves, considering the amount of rockets he was giving up he can’t really depend on the good fortunes of BABIP Treachery either.

Lester tried to bat away the ravages of age by going less and less to his declining fastball and using a cutter more, probably to get in on righties a little easier. It did not go particularly well, as hitters went for a .294 average against it and a .506 slugging. Perhaps more worrying is this:

Whenever Lester threw that cutter in the zone, it got pulverized. And while Lester lives on the edges, he does have to throw a strike, y’know, occasionally. Whenever he did with the pitch he used most, it was plasma. This is a problem, and leads you to believe there will have to be a change in approach come the ’20 season. In previous seasons, Lester had found success by keeping that cutter up and in on righties. But even that, as you can see here, didn’t do much good this past season. Is he going to have to be Gio Gonzalez now, and just wager that hitters can’t stay patient enough to not swing at four balls before they get themselves out? It might be worth a shot.

It got to the point with Lester where the rotation was rearranged in September so that he wouldn’t pitch against the Cardinals in that series at home. Lester was ok in September overall, giving a good outing against the Reds in that Week-us Horriblus and holding the Mariners down on Labor Day. But he also got horsed by the Brewers and Pirates when the Cubs needed at least length against the latter and a win against the former. You always counted on Jon to somehow gut through a game the Cubs had to have, and either he didn’t at times or they stopped counting on him to do so. That’s probably the surest sign of age right there. Overall, Lester was blowed up in August and not much better in September, which again might have to do with age more than anything.

Contract: One more year at $20.0M, and a $10M buyout or $25M option in ’21 if he were to pitch 200 innings in 2020.

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: There’s no boot in the ass option, and as Lester’s salary drops to $20M this year it’s not really egregious at all for what he will most likely be. You can do a lot worse in the #4 or #5 spot in the rotation than what Lester looks lined up to provide, and seeking it on the open market would probably still cost $12M-$15M anyway. So an extra five or so isn’t really killing the Cubs, though that won’t stop them from claiming so. Lester isn’t going to make 200 innings, as he hasn’t done so in three seasons now. He may want to, and he may try and pitch through some stuff to get there, but that will only make things worse. And maybe one bonus of having David Ross as manager now is Lester is less likely to either want to or be able to bullshit his way back to the mound if something on him is barking.

The question is whether Lester can be anything more than a competent seat-filler at the back of the rotation, and if the Cubs will need more than that depending on what they go and get to fill it out, if anything. The declining stuff can’t be gotten around, and it’s not like Lester is some loaf who can invent a new offseason training regiment or something. He’s already a tireless worker. This is just what happens to pitchers in their mid-30s who have logged these miles (2500 career innings). It would appear Lester’s plan of attacking hitters on their hands just isn’t going to work anymore, because he simply can’t get in there with the velocity or movement he has. At least he can’t in the strike zone. Maybe he can tweak that cutter to get a little more movement, but we’ll have to see on that one.

Lester has a decent enough curve, but he’s not going to be Rich Hill and snapping it off nearly half the time. Perhaps Jon needs to hone in on the outside corner, and as soon as hitters begin leaning out there can surprise them with the cutter in instead of using that as his main office.

Whatever for Vaughn. The Cubs can’t count on anything more than #4 production from Lester, and plan accordingly. That said, this being his last year in a Cub uniform should be something of a love fest for him. It was his signing that signaled the Cubs were ready for deep shit. It was he who pretty much dominated the 2016 playoffs, staring down Johnny Cueto first, keeping the Dodgers at bay twice, and then gutting out six innings of one-run ball in Game 5 against the Tribe when the Cubs had no choice. He’s been more than just a loyal servant and usually found a way to give you something even as his stuff and health have slipped. He was definitely a tone-setter in the clubhouse as one of the few players who had been around a lot.

Yeah, he got a lot of money. I doubt there’s a Cub fan worth a shit that would do that contract over, though.

Baseball

All The Boys In The Band Know How To Get Down – 2019 Sox Player Reviews: Dylan Cease

By Adam Hess 1281 0

In some ways, the future success of this Sox rebuild could end up depending on just how good Dylan Cease ends up being. There are legitimate questions about his ceiling, and he probably is not going to end up being a true ace, but he could very well be a top of the rotation starter. With Giolito asserting himself as the ace and Michael Kopech only having a ceiling placed on his potential by TJ surgery, the Sox don’t need Cease to be a world beater, but they do need him to be good. 2019 served as a decent starting point. Let’s dig in:

2019 MLB Stats

14 starts  73 innings

4-7 Record

5.79 ERA  5.19 FIP

9.99 K/9   4.32 BB/9  1.55 WHIP

45.7% GB-rate  68.1 LOB%  21.4% HR/FB

128 ERA-  0.7 fWAR

Tell Me A Story: After tearing a hole through AA in 2018, Cease was pretty close to MLB ready at the start of the season but still started out in Charlotte. I actually didn’t mind that approach because we all know TINSTAAPP, and that really was less about service time (they left him down until July, after all) and more about him finding a groove with his stuff before coming to the bigs. He was solid through his 15 starts for the Knights, though not nearly the dominant pitcher he had been in Birmingham last season. Still, he struck out 24% of his hitters and posted a 3.79 FIP, though his actual ERA was 4.48 and he walked 10.5% of batters.

Once he got to the majors, those K- and BB-rates were nearly identical. He actually struck out batters more frequently, with a 24.9% K-rate, but still had that 10.7% walk rate. The walk rate might just always be a thing for him – even in 2018 with the Barons he walked 10.8% of batters, he just had the fastball and curveball to beat guys after the fact, and ended up with an 85.8 LOB%. It’s not exactly surprising that moving up to AAA and then MLB resulted in him getting away with the walks far less often. That’s just going to be something he has to overcome moving forward if he can’t stop walking guys, and right now there isn’t really a reason to believe he will.

Luckily, the fastball is still electric and his curveball is one of the best in baseball, at least by average break. As he hones those in more and hopefully starts to throw more strikes, hitters aren’t gonna be able to wait him out as much, and he is going to keep them off-balance.

Perhaps strangely, I think one of the best things Cease has going for him is that by all reports he is one of the mentally strongest dudes in the Sox organization. He is a super-zen yoga guy who literally traveled to meet a yoga guru and wears #84 because that’s how many poses there are in yoga apparently. There’s almost always been reports on him being very calm on the mound and being someone who can easily keep his focus. He also has apparently invested himself briefly in the brain training Lucas Giolito did to help himself get back on track mentally, which should just help with all that even more.

Contract: Team control through 2025, likely arb eligible in 2023.

Welcome Back or Boot In The Ass: Easy call here that you’re keeping him. Overall, Cease absolutely has a high ceiling, but the control is a legitimate concern going forward. He won’t necessarily have to sort it out entirely to succeed, but he’s gonna need to improve at least a little bit to force hitters to not wait him out so much moving forward. He also needs to find a way to keep guys in the yard, although I am not wildly concerned about those considering that he gave up 15 homers in 14 starts last year after only surrendering 16 in his entire MiLB career. I’m confident (perhaps irrationally) that he isn’t going to live in the 20+% range on HR/FB. With Giolito and Kopech likely to be an elite 1-2 punch going forward, Cease being able to be a #3 in this rotation could be a huge advantage for the Sox in the years to come.

Baseball

We Know Your Nature – 2019 Cubs Player Reviews: Nicholas Castellanos

By Sam Fels 1678 0

And now the big debate. It’s actually a couple rolled into one. Is Nicholas Castellanos the player he showed for the two months he was a Cub? Is he what came before that? Is he what the final numbers on 2019 with both Detroit and Chicago say? Somewhere in-between? And then you add to those questions whether he should be re-signed or not. It’s a lot to figure out, and that’s before getting into the Cubs’ figment budget questions that they’ve made real.

2019 Stats (DET & CHI)

151 games  664 PAs

.289/.337/.525

27 HR  73 RBI

6.2 BB%  21.5 K%

121 wRC+  .357 wOBA  .883 OPS

-12.6 Defensive Runs Saved   2.8 WAR

Tell Me A Story: You could say that Castellanos was THE story for the Cubs last year, at least on the positive side. He came in at the trade deadline and immediately started hitting, and never really stopped. He inarguably brought a jolt to the Cubs, and they were a team that definitely could have used it. Castellanos was certainly more explosive than either Almora or whoever else he actually replaced in the lineup by pushing Heyward to center.

If you were to only look at his numbers with the Cubs in the last two months, he looks like an MVP candidate. .321/.356/.646 for an OPS of 1.002 and an OPS+ of 151. As Castellanos himself pointed out, the more friendly environs of Wrigley made a difference in his home run production, as he hit 16 in the season’s final two months after hitting only 11 in the first four in Detroit. And half of them came at home, so over a full season that projects out to over 40 homers and near 50 for a season. Of course, Castellanos isn’t going to ever match the 32% HR/FB rate he had in August as a Cub. But even the 14% he had in September was higher than anything he did in Detroit last season, and above his career rate.

What Castellanos did do, regardless of where he was playing, is hit the ball damn hard. He had a hard-contact rate over 40% every month of the season, which the Cubs simply don’t have a lot of. Only he and Schwarber eclipsed that mark for the whole year. For comparison’s sake, the Dodgers had nine guys who did. The Astros seven. Maybe the problem isn’t the amount of contact, fellas?

And that’s just about the story with Nic At Nite. There wasn’t that much of a change from the Tigers to the Cubs. He mashed fastballs and sinkers there, and he did so here, and with a slice more luck and a smaller park, the numbers swelled. He’s a good hitter who got hot and he will almost certainly remain a good hitter.

A key aspect to the Castellanos debate is his defense. It was better in ’19 than it was in ’18, and there isn’t nearly as much ground to cover in Wrigley as there is in Comerica, even if you have to deal with the sun and wind and Ryker from Highland Park throwing beers at you. But it still wasn’t good, The optimistic will tell you it was only his second season playing there and the improvement from ’18 to ’19 will only continue. The pessimistic will tell you he looks awkward as fuck out there, his routes are Dali-esque, has next to no range, and he just doesn’t have a feel for it out there and probably belongs in left. Which probably means the truth is somewhere in the middle as always.

Contract: Free Agent

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: Oh if it were only so simple. Yes, with no budget constraints-perceived or real or self-imposed or necessary–you’d re-sign Castellanos and have him and Schwarber in the corners to mash and you’d find a better solution in center to cover for their defense and maybe provide some offense and consign Heyward to the 4th outfielder role he’s been hurtling toward for four seasons. But life isn’t that simple.

These days, it’s impossible to know what Castellanos can make on the free agent market. A couple years ago, you’d be sure it was over $20M a year for five years at least. Now three years for between $51M-$54M seems the more likely, and even then who knows what the collusion owners will dictate.

But even at that $17M figure, it’s a tough squeeze for the Cubs. Even with just their arbitration raises as projected, the Cubs end up near $180M in payroll. And that’s if they don’t get to extend anyone with a bigger figure. And it could be more than that. That might leave somewhere between $35M-$40M to play with. But if you and Castellanos half of that, is $17M-$20M enough to get the extra starter and bullpen arm or two the Cubs need more desperately? It could be but would be a tight squeeze.

On the other side, having Castellanos on the team most certainly can’t hurt and if he’s anything close to the August-September guy, $17M is a bargain. If a third season sees his defense improve…maybe you can get away with it? Can you live with Heyward for a full season in center? Doubtful. Would you trade Schwarber? That’s production you’d have to find again and probably pay premium, either through money or trade, to do so. Isn’t that running in place?

On the plus side here, I don’t think there are any wrong answers. You can sign Castellanos and just say you’re going to bash the shit out of the ball and hope that’s enough to outrun your at-best subpar outfield defense. Or you can let him walk, use that money for the pitching you don’t have, and mitigate not having that offensive production. And maybe with a smart trade you can get some of it back anyway.

Looking at it though, Castellanos hits the ball awfully hard. The Cubs don’t. They’ll have to answer that somehow.

Baseball

All The Boys In The Band Know How To Get Down – 2019 White Sox Player Reviews: Reynaldo Lopez

By Sam Fels 1067 0

As AJ said yesterday, the hopeful and wandering eyes (ewww) of Sox fans are going to turn from Lucas Gioilito to Reynaldo Lopez next year. Is Lopez a candidate for such a turnaround? Let’s get in up to the wrist.

2019 Stats

33 starts  184 innings

10-15

5.38 ERA  5.04 FIP

8.27 K/9   3.18 BB/9  1.46 WHIP

35% GB-rate  69.2 LOB%  14.0% HR/FB

119 ERA-  2.3 WAR

Tell Me A Story: It was something of a strange year for Lopez, as in a lot of ways he had the same exact year as he did in 2018. And in some ways better, except without any of the results or numbers that would agree with that. He struck out slightly more hitters than he did in ’18, he walked slightly less hitters. He got ever so slightly more ground-balls, and considering what the baseball was his hard-contact against was essentially the same. And yet his ERA jumped nearly a run and a half and his FIP almost half a run. What’s going on here?

Some of this is luck. Lopez gave up more homers simply because more of them floated out of the park, which happened to just about everyone this season (at least not named Gerrit Cole). Whereas his fly ball-to-homer ratio previously was under 10%, it rose to over 14% this year. But Lopez didn’t give up hardly any more flies than he did previously, nor was the contact on them any more lively than before. They just ended up in places in various parks that were homers where they didn’t before, which is essentially just kind of random. Lopez wasn’t helped either by a dip in his left-on-base percentage, which is just sequencing. His 69% mark is three to four points below league average, and could just rebound simply because next year. More solo homers instead of them with men on would improve his ERA and such, without him actually doing anything differently.

Still, that’s not all of it. Lopez’s stuff suggests he should strike out more hitters than less than one per inning. And yet he doesn’t. Lopez’s fastball velocity ranked in the top-10 of all starters this year. The guy behind him was Max Scherzer. The guys ahead of him were Marquez, Alcantara, Castillo, Buehler, Wheeler, deGrom, Cole, and Thor. Almost everyone of them have much bigger K numbers than Lopez, and if not that than better success. Why so?

The easy answer is that they have better offspeed and breaking pitches, but that’s only partially true. The thing with Lopez’s fastball is though it’s one of the hardest around, it doesn’t get the whiffs you might think:

With Lopez’s velocity, you want him living at the top and above the zone. But all the other pitchers mentioned get whiff-per-swing rates in those six spots in the 30% range or 40%. Some even 50%, which Lopez has only in one spot and is probably more due to a weird spike than any skill. Maybe hitters just see Lopez’s fastball better than those others’. Maybe he needs some more deception in his delivery, but considering he’s throwing 95-97 regularly he should be blowing that pitch by hitters more often. And he’s not. And that’s a bigger problem because it’s still the pitch he goes to most often when ahead and with two strikes.

Lopez has good breaking stuff, but they don’t seem to come out of the same plane as his fastball. He mostly keeps his fastball up int he zone or above, but his slider breaks from the middle or low in the zone and out. Hitters can pretty much suss out when it’s not up it’s not a fastball, though they still offer and whiff at a decent amount of them. Though hardly a heroic amount. When pitching to lefties, his change still comes out of a lower plane as well. Perhaps using his curve more, which does come out of his hand looking higher in the zone, is the key. Or given how hard he throws, not being afraid to use the middle of the zone more often on the edges, and then the slider and change will look a little different. Clearly the tools are there.

Contract: Team control, arbitration eligible in 2021.

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: Well this is obvious. Lopez will be part of the rotation next year and hopefully for a good long while after that. And seeing as how he’s put up over 180 innings his first two full seasons, his durability will be needed in a season where the Sox don’t know what they’ll get from Carlos Rodon or Michael Kopech in terms of innings. He’s clearly the next project in the Giolito mold, how they can unlock what is clearly a lot in that closet. Feels like a delivery tweak is coming for him too to give him more deception and to make sure that fastball gets on hitters instead of them seeing it the whole way. Lopez will be 26 next year, so there’s still time but there isn’t the oodles of time it might feel like. If they can boost him as they did Giolito next year, then the games might matter in August again.

Baseball

We’ve Been Through This Before, But It Still Doesn’t Make Any Sense

By Rose Rankin 1523 0

Are you tired of reading these pieces from me yet? Because I’m awfully sick of writing them. In the past two years I’ve addressed the whitewashing of sexual assault, mansplaining (which for some reason has Sam as the author?? Very meta), and gender-based discrimination and the wage gap. Each of these situations were bad in their own way by highlighting persistent misogyny and distinct cultural issues that we still have in the country (and world), but this Brandon Taubman story really ticks all the boxes—workplace discrimination and undermining women’s basic competency at doing their jobs, the policy of valuing success over human decency, and minimizing the scourge of domestic violence. How could one asshole manage to do so much? Let’s examine:

The Art of the Non-Apology

See, that’s because it’s not just one asshole. Yes, this brouhaha was initially caused by the actions of one asshole, but it was a group of equally obnoxious ones that showed how odious this episode really is. You’ve got Taubman screaming weird, uncomfortable nonsense directly at women, clearly meaning to intimidate them or make them feel awkward. That’s bad enough on its own, but for the Astros to declare the story was “misleading and completely irresponsible” is, well, misleading and completely irresponsible. Dismissing the reporter out of hand and acting like Taubman was giving interviews when in fact he was spouting off because he wanted to is idiotic in the internet age when others can so quickly corroborate, but the subtext here is also, women are emotional, they’re too sensitive, her account isn’t trustworthy.

Once it finally became clear to these morons that doubling down on lies wasn’t going to work, they went with the phony contrition in the perfect non-apology: owner Jim Crane talked about money and Taubman gave the “I’m sorry you were offended” excuse. First of all, pointing to your wallet when you just hired and paid an abuser is not really a good look, and second of all, nowhere did Crane or Taubman acknowledge that Stephanie Apstein was accurate in her reporting (ya know, doing her job).

Apologizing to her for knocking her journalism might have made a little more sense. Especially since Taubman also used this opportunity to trot out the oldest and lamest excuse of them all: I’m a “loving and committed husband and father.” Listen, literally every male on this planet was birthed by a female of the species. Every single person here has a connection to a woman in the most primal of ways, so saying you’re a good guy because you know one doesn’t work. More importantly, even if you were an alien or had sprung fully formed from your father’s head like a fucking modern-day Athena, you should STILL respect women because THEY ARE PEOPLE THE SAME AS MEN ARE. This tired-ass excuse is just admitting, “I respect women because I’m putting my dick in one.” Try again, dumbshit.

At All Costs

Turning a blind eye to violence against women if it gives your team a chance to win is nothing unique to the Astros. They just really went all out in proclaiming it. Which is funny because Osuna blew the damn save so in addition to being boorish this Taubman is also just plain stupid. But we’ve seen it with Aroldis Chapman, we’ve seen it with Addison Russell, and those are just two that made headlines in these parts. It’s happened in the NFL and undoubtedly in every league more times than you can imagine. Hell, Bobby Hull is still celebrated here and he’s a monster.

And this latest situation won’t change that. Taubman and the Astros look like jerks but it’ll pass, people will forget, and front offices will continue to sign and pay men who abuse women because those men are talented athletes. If the Astros lose this series, or perhaps if Osuna himself really shits the bed, he himself will be out of a job, but there is no agreement among owners to shut these players out in the way that NFL owners blacklisted Colin Kaepernick. We know it can be done since we’ve seen them effectively freeze him out of the league, but until that dedication is turned against abusers, there will only be more stories like this, both in terms of people scratching their heads saying why is this abusive piece of shit on [fill in the blank team], and in terms of cowards like Taubman using the threat of superiority and control to intimidate women in moments when they don’t think anyone can stop them.

Same As It Ever Was

And that’s really the issue—that domestic violence is still explained away as a personal matter or a private issue, anything other than the devastating crime that it is. That’s why the Astros initially tried the smear campaign. Doing so twisted the issue of defending the indefensible to questioning whether a reporter was accurate. Accuracy is much less fraught than the former scenario and it takes the spotlight away from the fact that the team doesn’t really care if he kicked the shit out of his partner.

The worst irony of it all is the inability for these guys to admit they were wrong. Taubman was wrong for just being a douchebag, Crane was wrong for a non-apology, the organization as a whole was wrong for undermining a journalist, there’s plenty to go around. But facing domestic violence—when it’s literally happening to you—involves the harshest admission of being wrong. You have to look at yourself and everyone you know and say “I was wrong.” I was wrong about everything, I was wrong about who I thought this person was, I was wrong about what I thought my future would be, I was wrong about all the excuses I made, I was wrong about all of it. And now here I am.

The absolute inability of men in positions of power (we’ll go with sports and keep it focused here) to say that is part of why abuse is so common and so pervasive. If you can’t say you were wrong to defend this person, and you can’t say you were wrong to hire this person, then what’s going to make you say it was wrong that this abuser did what he did? It’s a culture of impunity, and unless it ever changes women will continue to be on the receiving end of that cruelty.

Photo credit: awfulannouncing.com

 

Baseball

Cubs Make The Obvious Choice That We Don’t Know Anything About

By Sam Fels 1628 0

It doesn’t fit for this front office to say they put on a show to justify making the choice they wanted to make the entire time anyway. Maybe they did, but while they don’t always get it right, I would be hard-pressed to ever accuse Theo Epstein’s regime of not being thorough. I don’t think there’s any move they’ve made where they were just tossing a football around the office, never even looked at a sheet or screen, and said, “Yeah sure whatever.”

So I don’t think the two interviews for David Ross were just for the sake of doing it because they gave Joe Espada two interviews. I don’t think they were just making it seem like they were doing their due diligence while they actually just got drunk with Ross and made fun of ESPN personalities (which probably did happen in addition, to be fair). My guess would be they put Ross through a pretty heavy ringer to be comfortable giving him the manager’s job.

Does the familiarity help? Sure, of course. But that goes both ways. The only thing I’m sure of with the Cubs’ manager search is they wanted a guy who will run the team in the same vision they have for it as they put it together. That doesn’t mean they’ll be calling down to the dugout during the game and telling Ross or whoever else they might have hired what to do. But when they put together this team this winter, whatever and however that’s going to be, anyone would have a clear idea of how they want the pieces moved on the board. Whether that vision is correct or not…well, that’s what a baseball season is for.

So yeah, they probably want their bullpen used more creatively than 7th- and 8th-inning guy, and then closer. Especially as it’s likely to have at least two guys–Alzolay and Chatwood–who can be used for multiple innings. They probably want that in close games, not just mop-up situations or when there’s no other option. They want a different environment for younger players, as this one kind of stalled out for some (assuming they can actually play). They probably don’t want Albert Almora leading off ever again. They want things to definitely be tighter than they were this year.

But for anyone to say, “Oh Ross will do this or that. Or he’ll bring this or that to the clubhouse…” We don’t have any idea. He doesn’t have any idea. Neither does Theo. We can guess and they might have a stronger inkling thanks to the interviews and their relationship with him, but no one knows.

Sure, he doesn’t have any experience. But he also spent his entire career as a backup catcher, which means he spent most of his career watching from the dugout, seeing how things play out. And if he thought he wanted to be a manager at any point, which he obviously did, it was probably in that context at some point long ago.

Yes, he has a relationship with some of the players, and all of the core. Maybe that means he holds them accountable better. Maybe it means he thinks he’s still their buddy. Maybe it means he knows exactly how to get through to them and immediately get on board and bring the rest of the team with them. We don’t know, and probably won’t until July.

Maybe he sets a harsher tone. He was a great clubhouse leader as a player. I mean, everyone says so. Except that all of those things that made him so are things we never saw. We take their word for it. The volume of it makes it probably true, but how does that play as a boss? He acted as something of a conduit from the manager to the players in both Boston and Chicago, so he’s not unfamiliar. But I’m not going to take him yelling at Anthony Rizzo one time in spring training as a basis for how he’ll run an entire team for an entire season and more.

But the tangible stuff? We don’t have any idea. Can he get players to change their approach at times? A few hitting coaches have failed at it now, so why will Ross be any different? He could. He might not. We don’t know. Can Ross make Quintana discover a new pitch or new way of delivering one of the ones he has to find more success? Maybe? Who knows?

Ross will probably look like a good manager if he gets a starter to slot either right below or right in the middle of Kyle Hendricks and Yu Darvish and definitely above Q and Jon Lester, along with two more bullpen arms. I bet he looks pretty smart then. Oh, and Ian Happ hits out of center and Nico Hoerner is ready to take over at second by no later than Memorial Day.

All we can say for sure is that in those interviews, the outline or vision Ross had for how this team should look and be deployed lined up with what the front office sees. But we don’t know what that vision is, they’re not going to tell us. We’ll find out during the season.

My fear is that Ross’s name and esteem amongst Cubs fans and media is part of the appeal, in that he’ll buy some breathing room and time for the rest of the organization in case they have plans they know we won’t like. That’s probably some of the appeal, but not all.

But in the end, we don’t know. We’ll fill this vacuum of nothing with our thoughts and opinions and most of all our guesses because there’s nothing else to do and you can’t leave a vacuum a vacuum, duh. But you don’t know. I don’t know. They don’t know.

And by the time we do know, it could be too late. Or it could be perfect. It could be anything. That can be exciting. That can be daunting. Again, anything.