Baseball

Let’s Talk About Tim Anderson Because We Need Fun

By Sam Fels 1308 0

I think we can all agree that Tim Anderson’s emergence goes just a little bit beyond the field, and it goes into areas that I’m probably not qualified to talk about. Not only could the White Sox seriously use this season from Anderson being real and repeated, so could all of baseball. It’s been a ride so far,  that’s for sure.

Strictly as a player, and as a batter more to the point. Anderson is the type of player that used to piss me off. Not for his brashness, because I’ve always loved that as someone who has no swagger to him at all, but his undisciplined ways. As basically a zealot of Moneyball, I looked through glares and furrowed brows at any player who didn’t walk or even take a pitch, Anderson would have been one I would have been waving garlic at or something. Of course, if he were a vampire that would only make him cooler but that’s a much sillier discussion to have. Anyway, given Jim Hendry’s ways you can see why I was probably the most miserable Cubs fan on Earth, and that’s saying something.

Over the past couple years, I’ve grown to appreciate players like Anderson who look at our narrow vision of what an approach at the plate should be (or did), stick one finger up at it, and then go about it the opposite way. There was probably a time I would have looked at Javy Baez crossly as well, but he’s another who decided he was going to swing at even more pitches, and simply get to more of them and that’s how he would increase his numbers. As both Anderson and Baez are having their best seasons, certainly what’s become clear is that there are a few ways to skin a cat. If you’re a sick fucko, that is, because who else would come up with that phrase? Seriously.

Anyway, Anderson. He did raise his walk-rate last year to 5%, which is just about something you’d notice. But that’s clearly not for him this year, as he’s swinging at more pitches out of the zone, inside the zone, so yes, overall. And he’s making more contact on pitches outside and inside the zone than he ever has. So it’s not a huge surprise that he’s seeing less and less pitches inside the zone than he ever has, or getting less first-pitch strikes than before. It’s how these things go. Hasn’t mattered all that much, or it didn’t in April. But the theme of the day seems to be parsing out players struggling in the month of May, so here we are.

Clearly, Anderson’s May is not as good as his April. Whereas he had a .425 wOBA in the opening month, that’s cratered to .294 in May. Yes, he’s not getting nearly the rub of the green in May, but a .302 BABIP isn’t unholy. Let’s see if we can get to the bottom of this other than luck. Because Anderson never hit the ball hard enough to get that much luck, and probably needs to live with this kind of fortune.

One oddity of Anderson’s season is that he hasn’t hit the fastball well at any time. In the season’s opening throes, he hit .296 on fastballs, which is barely ok, but slugged the same exact number, which is hardly so. Anderson made up for that by hitting everything else into oblivion. .467 average and a .733 slugging on sinkers, .400 on changes, and the big improvement from previous seasons was inhaling and spitting back out sliders to the tune of a .435 average and a .738 slugging. Those last two numbers were far more than he’s ever done before.

Well, Anderson is still seeing the same percentage of fastballs, but it’s getting worse. He’s hitting .158 on them in May, while maintaining good-to-great averages on pretty much everything else. Again, like we did earlier today, has the location where he’s getting those fastballs changed? Sure looks like it:

Pitchers are going away from Anderson more, and to his credit he’s gone the opposite way more as well in May (21% in April, 35% in May). The problem for Anderson is when going the other way he just doesn’t have much pop, at least not this year. He’s got a 20% line-drive rate when going to right field, which is down significantly from last year but in line with his first years on the Southside. He’s got a decent enough 25% line-drive rate when going the other way, which is what he’s had in every season in the majors. But he’s slugged .371, with an ISO of .086 when going to right so far this year, and until that improves, that’s where pitchers are going to go at him. But it’s in him, because he’s slugged over .550 in the previous two seasons when doing that.

Anderson has seen big gains when pulling the ball this year, along with getting it in the air more. But it didn’t take pitchers long to see that came at the cost of what he used to do well. Now we see if he can combine the two.

 

 

Baseball

Inside The Slumps

By Sam Fels 1306 0

While the Cubs have trucked along pretty much in May, some of the things that were going well in April have not gone so well in May. Specifically, there are players who helped carry the offense while Kris Bryant and maybe one or two others were still trying to get the spark plugs to fire that are no definitely making weird noises and spitting up oil and smoke. So let’s go through and see what’s going on with a couple of them.

The first that pops up is Jason Heyward. There can’t be much of a stark contrast between April and May for a player than what Heyward has gone through. Here’s April slash lines: .309/.426/.509, and you can see why everyone was so excited and felt like they’d just come upon an undiscovered warehouse of peanut butter cups. Here’s May: .169/.234/.238. And that is fucking gross. Like, going to pick up your dog’s shit and realizing there’s a hole in the bag and you’re blocks from home gross (and yes, I know those of you with kids have had this feeling every day, but I didn’t make you have kids).

I think it’s important to remember than when you combine the two, currently Heyward has a 100 wRC+, .158 ISO, and a .401 slugging, all marks that are actually the best he’s had here in Chicago (sad, I know). The reason that Heyward has only been worth 0.1 fWAR is that his defense hasn’t been the usual stellar kind, at least metrically, as it usually is. However, an exactly average offensive season and return to his usual defensive prowess for the rest of the season still makes him a valuable player. But let’s get deeper than that because we’ve got nothing else.

For one, luck is playing a huge part. In April, Heyward’s BABIP was .313, which is a touch above average. In May it’s .208, which is beyond the sewers and getting to the Earth’s core. Whatever kind of contact Heyward is making, .208 is ridiculous. That’s not going to continue.

The thing is, the contact between the two months isn’t really all that different. In April, Heyward had 17.4% line-drives, 46.4% grounders, 36.2 fly balls. May it’s been 18.5%/42.6%/38.9%. Almost exactly the same. Considering the lack of line drives and hard contact, maybe Heyward was really lucky to get what he did in April with that mere .313 BABIP.

One big difference is that the hard-contact has dropped off. Heyward had 30.5% hard contact rate in April, which isn’t even that good, but that’s dropped to 25% in May. And if you go by Statcast, Heyward is right where he should be overall. His expected batting average is .252, he’s hitting .243. His expected weighted-on base is .323. His actual is .322. This is probably what he is, and I think it’s probably fine? And if he improves from this May, not even close to what he was in April but then improves, you’ll have a decent season.

Going deeper, in the season’s opening month Heyward was crushing fastballs and curves. He’s still hitting curves well, but he can’t get anything done on fastballs. Has there been a difference where he’s getting them? A touch. Here’s where he was getting fastballs in April and then May:

It’s not a huge difference, but he’s seeing more fastballs up and in than he did, and if you remember him driving outside fastballs to left you can see why that might be a problem. And J-Hey has always had a problem with high and tight fastballs. It’s just something he’s going to have to get to.

Another is Daniel Descalso. Now, counting on Descalso for much was always folly, because it’s just not what he’s been. He has one above-average offensive season to his name, and that was the last one. Now is he .216 bad? No, he isn’t, but outside of Colorado he’s always been around a .240 hitter. What we are missing is the walks. Descalso’s BB% is down 6% from last year, which is part of the problem. And he was walking in April, around 12%. But that’s sunk to 5% in May. And the Ks are up. It ain’t pretty.

The big problem is that in April, Descalso hit a ton of shit hard, to 41.8%. In May it’s 20%, so even if that .171 BABIP feels like it’s the work of a demon, you’re not going very far when only a fifth of your contact is loud.

Descalso’s success in April was basically only what he did on fastballs. He hit .440 on them, slugged .680, and his numbers on sinkers were just about the same. So he’s not seeing them nearly as often this year. He saw 171 fastballs or sinkers in April, and only 57 of them so far in May. People catch on. And he’s getting difference in location too:

What’s weird is that Descalso hasn’t been all that good high in the zone in his career, but they’re certainly more careful about pumping shit right down the middle on him. And Descalso is helpless on anything that breaks. And until that changes, this might be what you get.

Baseball

Series Preview – Phillies vs. Cubs: The Actual Return

By Sam Fels 1247 0

vs.

RECORDS: Phillies 27-19   Cubs 27-17

GAMETIMES: Monday and Wednesday 7:05, Tuesday 6:05, Thursday 1:20

TV: NBCSN Monday and Wednesday, WGN and ESPN Tuesday, ABC Thursday

BLEW UP THE CHICKEN MAN’S HOUSE: The Good Phight (sky point Crashburn Alley)

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Jake Arrieta vs. Yu Darvish

Zach Efflin vs. Jose Quintana

Cole Irvin vs. Cole Hamels

Aaron Nola vs Jon Lester

PROBABLE PHILLIES LINEUP

Andrew McCutchen – LF

Jean Segura – SS

Bryce Harper – RF

Rhys Hoskins – 1B

J.T. Realmuto – C

Cesar Hernandez – 2B

Odubel Herrera – CF

Maikel Franco – 3B

PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

Kyle Schwarber – LF

Kris Bryant – 3B

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Victor Caratini – C

Jason Heyward – RF

Albert Almora Jr. – CF

Daniel Descalso – 2B

Addison Russell – SS

 

It’s a bit silly to talk about playoff previews, but given the way the Mets and Nationals are intent on sucking their own toes right now, it’s not hard to envision the Phillies being around in October. And with the Cubs at the top of their division as well, this is certainly a series that will draw interest from outside their locales.

Ah, but the headline isn’t so much a series between two of the NL’s four best teams, which it is, but the actual return of Jake Arrieta and his date with Yu Darvish tonight. Arrieta didn’t pitch against the Cubs last year, so this feels like the actual homecoming. Sadly, there will be fans and writers who will use this as some sort of barometer or definitive statement on the Cubs decision to move on from Arrieta to Darvish, which will probably ignore that Arrieta has basically been mediocre since leaving and is still heading the wrong way. Jake doesn’t strike out as many hitters as he used to, he’s walking more, and feels like a #3 starter these days. Lucky for the Phils, that’s all he has to be.

Aaron Nola is around to carry the ace-responsibility, though he’s had issues this year with control and being eaten alive by the BABIP Dragon. He is giving up harder contact than he did last year, but he shouldn’t be surrendering a .364 BABIP. Zach Efflin has been the breakout star this year–perhaps the one Nick Pivetta was supposed to be before imploding. He’s cut his walks in half and gives up a startlingly low amount of hard contact. Cole Irvin was a top prospect who is now up, so it’s a pretty effective rotation that can live with an ok-to-good Arrieta instead of a dominant one.

The other narrative that will be barfed up repeatedly until esophaguses are worn away is Bryce Harper coming to where he “should” have been, and whether or not that’s worked out for either. As the Cubs have one of the best offenses in baseball, it seems to have been fine for them. Harps hasn’t set the world on fire which has him on every Philly fan’s enemies list already, and he has struck out a ton, but he’s also gotten on base a ton. He’s hitting for more than decent power, and his defense has actually been good considering that right field in Citizens’ Bank Park is like 15 square feet. His presence on on-base tendencies have certainly helped Hoskins behind him, who has MVP numbers. Jean Segura is having a luck-infused renaissance, and Cesar Hernandez is also having a boom start. J.T. Realmuto hasn’t really got going yet, and third base continues to be a black hole for the Phillies, but it’s a decent lineup

The pen has been an issue. Only Adam Morgan and Hector Neris have been accountable, with everyone else either having control or homer problems or both. David Robertson being hurt hasn’t helped, and same goes for Victor Arano. This is where you get the Fightins most easily.

God help us if Darvish doesn’t have a good start tonight and Arrieta does. There’s a Cole Derby on Wednesday, and that Nola-Lester matchup on getaway day is actually the best one of the series. The Cubs don’t need a litmus test, we know their good, but it’s always fun to see how they do against their fellow glitterati. They took two of three from the Dodgers and have split with the Brewers. This is the cream of the crop of the East, so should be enjoyable.

Baseball

Series Preview – White Sox vs. Astros: Bonesaw’s Ready

By Sam Fels 1176 0

vs.

RECORDS: White Sox 21-24   Astros 31-16

GAMETIMES: Monday-Thursday at 7:10

TV: NBCSN Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, WGN Wednesday

SONS OF MIKE SCOTT: Crawfish Boxes

PROBABLE PITCHERS

TBD vs. Brad Peacock

Dylan Covey vs. Justin Verlander

Ivan Nova vs. Gerrit Cole

Lucas Giolito vs. Corbin Martin

PROBABLE WHITE SOX LINEUP

Leury Garcia – CF

Yoan Moncada – 3B

Jose Abreu – 1B

Yonder Alonso – DH

James McCann – C

Eloy Jimenez – LF

Tim Anderson – SS

Yolmer Sanchez – 2B

Charlie Tilson – RF

PROBABLE ASTROS LINEUP

George Springer – CF

Alex Bregman – 3B

Michael Brantley – DH

Carlos Correa – SS

Josh Reddick – RF

Yuri Gurriel – 2B

Tyler White – 1B

Robinson Chirinos – C

Jake Marisnick – LF

 

Well I’m sure it was nice for the White Sox to play at their own level for a while with the Blue Jays for seven games over the past 10 days, but it’s straight into the deep end now. The Sox travel to Houston to face that throng of frost giants who like to smash things but good, and then cross the country length-wise to face the division-leading Twins who are something of a diet version of the Astros. Good time to have a bunch of injuries on your pitching staff, huh?

To be fair to the Sox, there just might not be a pitching staff that can deal with the artillery the Astros throw at you every night. They’re second in runs in the majors, behind those previously mentioned Twins. They have the best OBP in the majors by eight points. They have the best slugging percentage. They have the best wOBA as well. Of their eight regulars, only Yuri Gurriel isn’t carrying a wRC+ well over 100, and he’s at 99. Even part-timers Aledmys Diaz and Jake Marisnick are turning baseballs into paste when they’re in the lineup. There’s no break here. Michael Brantley, who I still can’t believe the Indians just let walk out the door considering their outfield options, has an OPS of .933. That’s fourth-best on the team. There is no non-monster in this lineup right now, with the Crawford Boxes beckoning the whole night. It’s a goddamn nightmare for anyone.

But that’s ok, because they have a really strong rotation, too. You’ll know all about Verlander, who will carry a sub-3.00 ERA until he’s 52 for no reason. Gerrit Cole carries the highest K/9 in all of baseball. Wade Miley has been able to parlay the Astros’ superb defense into success (oh right, the Astros catch everything too). Brad Peacock has been just above “meh,” and Collin McHugh actually bad. But hey, no biggie, because two of their top four prospects just happen to be starters, and Corbin Martin has already arrived (though Forrest Whitley has had a rough go so far in AAA so he might not be the sure bet for this year he was before it started). So there’s no break here.

Well, maybe you can get to them in the late innings, right? Fuck you, buddy. Ryan Pressly and Roberto Osuna (aka ASSHOLE), are both carrying ERAs under 1.00. Will Harris is at 1.15. Hector Rondon at 2.30. McHugh and Peacock have both rotated out there in the past and this year with success. Joshua James and Chris Devenski have had their issues, but they’re on the margins, especially when they get the innings they do out of the starters and the creative use of A.J. Hinch. They might not strike out the world as some pens do, but their top four in Pressly, Osuna, Harris, and Rondon barely walk anyone and other than Osuna the other three get a ton of grounders on the contact they do give up. There’s nowhere to go here.

So the Sox having to have a bullpen day to kick this off tonight is less than ideal. Especially when it’s not a fully healthy pen. Giolito will get his biggest test of his new approach and stuff, as will everyone else. Eloy Jimenez looks poised to return as Nicky Delmonico was shipped out yesterday along with his hair care products. Good thing too, because the Sox are going to need a lot of runs to hang in there in Texas this week.

 

Baseball

Series Wrap – Cubs Take Two Of Three From Nationals: Evening Out

By Sam Fels 1237 0

Game 1 Box Score: Cubs 14, Nationals 6

Game 2 Box Score: Nationals 5, Cubs 2

Game 3 Box Score: Cubs 6, Nationals 5

When it was laid out, and you saw Luis Castillo, Max Scherzer, and Stephen Strasburg lined up against the Cubs, a .500 road trip seemed pretty tasty. And that’s what the Cubs got thanks to getting past Scherzer and then hanging on tonight for a series win in DC. They feasted on the soft underbelly of the Nats on Friday, their bullpen, and then didn’t get the chance on Saturday. Tonight, they got to see what the Nats look like without an ace or ace-adjacent starter on the mound, and it’s not good. Keep the line moving.

The Two Obs

-Kris Bryant…good.

-I feel like Cubs fans are just going to have to live with this kind of Jon Lester start every once in a while. As we’ve chronicled, Lester for the past year and this season has lived on the margins, getting away with giving up a fair amount of hard contact. He didn’t even give up that much hard contact last night, though more than enough, but everything found a hole. It’s the opposite side of the BABIP Dragon. He just didn’t have much, and you wonder if the 116 pitches he threw in his last start had an effect. He won’t get an extra day before his next start either, so hopefully just a one off. He has about the same margin for error as Hendricks does these days. You see what happens when he misses.

-I’m telling you now, I have about as much use for Xavier Cedeno as I do Kyle Ryan, and that’s a whole lot of not much .

-Baez’s injury is a little worrying, though a heel bruise probably doesn’t keep him out long. One of the worries this season is that Javy has played every game, and while having your own personal Cal Ripken who can do what Baez does certainly appeals, we know that rest is something of a weapon. Yes, it means more Addison Russell and no one wants that, but this is where we are. A couple games off probably is for the best.

-Almora had five hits in two games started. Is this the awakening? Eh…over the past two weeks the OBP is still under .300, but he’s slugging .565, and still half the contact is on the ground. Let’s reserve judgement for a a little longer.

-We can definitely say Daniel Descalso is certainly in heavy seas at the moment. Which makes La Stella’s nuclear streak in Anaheim a little harder to deal with.

-Did I mention Kris Bryant is good?

-Letting Cishek get the final seven outs is the kind use the pen is just going to have to get right now. This is why we’re big on letting Chatwood and Montgomery take multiple innings whenever possible, because it frees up Kintzler and Cishek and Edwards to do more when used. And when those are the most trustworthy relievers you have…well, you understand the problem.

Onwards…

Baseball

Series Wrap: White Sox Split With Blue Jays, 2-2 – Don’t Get Too Close To .500, Boys

By Adam Hess 1112 0

Game 1 Box Score: Blue Jays 2, White Sox 4

Game 2 Box Score: Blue Jays 10, White Sox 2

Game 3 Box Score: Blue Jays 1, White Sox 4

Game 4 Box Score: Blue Jays 5, White Sox 2

Before this series got going on Thursday, I wrote in the preview that the Sox had a near-golden opportunity to get themselves within striking distance of .500. When I wrote those words, I severely discounted the White Sox inherent and insatiable ability to completely screw up any golden opportunity put before them, like perhaps the golden opportunity to sign a 26-year old superstar free agent in his prime to accelerate a rebuild. Good thing that one hasn’t happened, right? Haha….. NO YOU’RE STILL CRYING ABOUT IT. Whatever let’s do this.

THE BULLETS

– Much to my own personal surprise, Dylan Covey was not complete garbage in his Thursday start. Would’ve liked to see a bit more swing-and-miss generation from him, but in reality I don’t think he’s any kind of starter long term unless you’re in a bad pinch, which the Sox rotation currently is. But in the end he came just one out shy of a quality start and kept the Sox in it for them to eventually pull off some bullshit in the 8th and win. Thanks, I guess.

– Speaking of that bullshit, although it worked out, I could not hate the decision to have Ryan Cordell bunt Yolmer Sanchez home anymore. Cordell was 2-for-3 in the game and at the moment it happened was hitting .253 with a .754 OPS. There was less than two outs. And sure, he’s your 9-hole hitter, and he might not be anything important after this year, but if I told you that any hitter had those stats and you told me you’d have him try the safety squeeze in a situation like that, I’d punt you between the legs. It worked out and they won, but that doens’t mean I have to be happy about it, dammit.

– Onto Friday, for which I have very little to say other than this – I am tired of Ivan Nova starts. Similarly, I am tired during Ivan Nova starts, because the motherfucker works so slow he is literally putting me to sleep. Also, shoutout to Leury Garcia for Canseco-ing a dinger to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

– Saturday was shortened by rain, but that didn’t take anything away from another good outing by Lucas Giolito. It wasn’t quite as dominant as his outing against the Jays last Sunday had been, but it was still strong, and he went superhuman in the fifth inning, throwing 11 pitches, all of them strikes, and striking out the side to get the game official. He also got credit for a complete game since he threw all five in a five inning game, which was the first Sox complete game since Chris Sale still wore white rather than red. At first I thought that Gio getting a complete game was a Twitter Joke, but then I got fantasy baseball points for it, so thanks, Gio! I’m keeping you around

– Today was a frustrating loss to take, because Reynaldo Lopez turned in a sold start himself and got no help in the process. He allowed one run over six innings, logging yet another quality start, but was left without a decision. That was thanks to Kelvin Herrera and Jace Fry serving up a pair of 2-run shots in the 8th and 9th innings, respectively. Herrera’s surrendered dinger was to Vlad Jr., who hit the ball so far that it just landed in my backyard north of Indianapolis. I’m not even positive the stadium faces this way, I’m just assuming he hit it all the way around the earth.

– Chalk it up as a solid weekend for Yoan Moncada. He ended up with just 4 hits in 4 games, and did go 0-for-5 with 2 K’s on Thursday, but his hits on Saturday and Sunday were all for extra bases, and he has his season average at .291 with a .882 OPS. I will take it, thank you very much.

Baseball

Series Preview – Cubs vs. Nationals: Nothing Goes To Plan In DC

By Sam Fels 1308 0

vs.

RECORDS: Cubs 25-16   Nationals 18-25

GAMETIMES: Friday- Sunday at 6:05 

TV: WGN Friday, FOX Saturday, ESPN Sunday

THOSE CLOWNS IN DC DID IT AGAIN: Federal Baseball

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Cole Hamels vs. Max Scherzer

Jon Lester vs. Stephen Strasburg

Kyle Hendricks vs. Jeremy Hellickson

PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

Kyle Schwarber – LF

Kris Bryant – 3B

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Javier Baez – SS

Willson Contreras – C

Daniel Descalso – 2B

Jason Heyward – RF

Albert Almora Jr. – CF

PROBABLE NATS LINEUP

Trea Turner – SS

Victor Robles – RF

Anthony Rendon – 3B

Howie Kendrick – 1B

Juan Soto – LF

Kurt Suzuki – C

Brian Dozier – 2B

Michael Taylor – CF

 

After their first disappointing series result in over a month, the Cubs decamp to the capital to see what a real disappointment looks like, Dave Martinez looked overmatched last year with a mess of a team with a departing Bryce Harper and everyone else pretty much miserable. But the Nats’ brass wanted a second look to be sure, like when you sleep with someone a second time after the first time was terrible to make sure it wasn’t you, and it’s going just about as well. The Nats only have the Marlins to thank for propping them up in the East, and they’re six games behind pace-setters Philadelphia.

One misfiring piston is the offense, which ranks 10th in the NL in runs, OBP, and wOBA. The two kids, Robles and Soto, have done what they can but they have not gotten much help. Brian Dozier apparently dies three years ago. We know Ryan Zimmerman did. Trea Turner has been hurt but returns tonight which means they can stop giving ABs to human drainage ditch Wilmer Difo. Anthony Rendon still rules, and he’s the main threat in this outfit. Ryan Zimmerman is on the IL by being covered in formaldehyde. And Adam Eaton hasn’t been able to bro it up very much with his one knee. Turner’s return should see a jump from this offense, but how much we’ll see.

The rotation is what you’ve come to expect and perhaps the biggest reason the Nats were still thought of as faves in the division ever after losing THE HAIR in right. And Scherzer, Corbin, and Strasburg have been up to that challenge, so unlucky for the Cubs they’ll catch two of the three. But the back end has been terrible with Anibal Sanchez and Sunday’s starter Hellickson, and now Sanchez is hurt.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the Nationals have had some bullpen problems. Closer Sean Doolittle, along with being an excellent person, has been very good, but getting to him has proven something of a jump over lava. Wander Suero, which I’m pretty sure is a name and a command, has been undone by a couple ugly outings but has straightened out of late. Tony Sipp blows, and everyone else outside Kyle Barraclough has been gasoline. There are enough arms to get by, especially after what they get from their top three starters, but once again they’ll have to figure this one out later in the season if they want to contend.

There’s certainly more than enough here for the Nationals to run with the Fightin’s and if either the Mets or Braves stop drinking their own piss. But there was enough last year, and Martinez’s bewildered expression didn’t do a lot for them. Perhaps when Robles and Soto stop striking out over a quarter of the time the offense will really take off, and you’ll see a run then. What they can’t have is any injury to the troika in the rotation or Doolittle, and the latter hasn’t not been the most sturdy in his career. He’d also look mighty fine in blue pinstripes if it really goes balls-up for the Nats.

For the Cubs, Anthony Rizzo returns from his backiotomy. The first two nights feature some neon-light pitching matchups, and Nationals Park hasn’t been the happiest of hunting grounds for the Cubs. Still, a win in this series puts the Cubs on a .500 road trip and that’s fine. They’ll just have to get one over on either Strasburg or Scherzer to get that, or both. Not the easiest path.

Baseball

Series Wrap – Cubs Drop Two Of Three To Reds: It’s Not Only The Chili That’s Annoying

By Sam Fels 1242 0

Game 1 Box Score: Cubs 3, Reds 1

Game 2 Box Score: Reds 6, Cubs 5 (10)

Game 3 Box Score: Reds 4, Cubs 2

It’s pretty impressive to go a month without losing a series. Nothing lasts forever. It seems like losses in Cincinnati are just a little more annoying than the others, though. The Reds aren’t really a last-place team, especially considering the starters they threw at the Cubs this week. All three were tight games, and a couple mistakes here and there cost the Cubs. It’s a little daunting considering Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin are lined up against them at the weekend. Hey, that’s baseball. Let’s go through it.

The Two Obs

-This is probably the best run of Kyle Hendricks’s career, though it doesn’t hurt that two-thirds of this have come against some currently pop-gun offenses in Miami and the Reds. He hasn’t really mixed the curve in that much as he wanted to do in spring training, but it hasn’t mattered.

-I’m fairly sure Jason Heyward might suck again. O-for-14 in the series confirms that. Four hits in his last 52 would seem to be another, and you can’t chalk that up to just bad luck.

-To Game 2’s loss, and I’m a little harsh on Carl Edwards Jr. at times. Well most of the time. Ok, all of the time. He’s been all right since coming back, but Eugenio Suarez is basically the one dangerous hitter in that lineup right now other than Dietrich. 2-0 on him is not the time to test out your fastball, as good as Edwards’s can be. It’s just not blow-it-by-anyone good. Yeah, it was high and yeah it may have been even outside, but he’s waiting for that. Break out that curve of yours.

-Tonight’s loss would have been more infuriating if the game had been shortened. And it was mostly on Contreras. Ok, the first fastball that got by him to move the runners to second and third, that’s fine. You’re not expecting a fastball in the dirt. He still tried to pick it, but whatever. But then a curve in the dirt is something you’re supposed to be prepared for. He tried to pick that instead of blocking it, and then now the game is tied and there’s a runner at third.

-I’m actually kind of on board with Schwarber leading off. That spot seems to have broken Heyward and Descalso, and Almora’s never been up for it. If Schwarber’s strength right now is at least getting on base, let’s use that.

-I wasn’t a huge fan of the usage of Montgomery last night either. To me, and this is just an urge to be creative, but anytime you use him should be for multiple innings. He hasn’t thrown in a week anyway. The pen is stripped to the studs, and you want to expose it as little as possible. You get five from Darvish, then see how far Monty can go. That’s one less time you have to use Ryan or Kintzler or whatever other joker is coming out of there right now. You clearly had Monty prepped to follow Darvish, so why not run the playbook from last week back?

-Any outing from Yu that has no walks I’m here for. It’s a good start at least.

Well, Rizzo wasn’t around, and they lost a game in extras. See what goes on in DC.

Onwards…

 

Baseball

Series Preview – Blue Jays vs. White Sox: Striving for .500

By Adam Hess 1193 0

vs.

RECORDS: Blue Jays 17-25, White Sox 19-22

GAMETIMES: Thursday and Friday 7:10, Saturday and Sunday 1:10

TV: NBCSN+ Thursday, NBCSN Friday and Saturday, WGN Sunday

THE TORANNA BOYS: Still just follow Zubes on Twitter

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Marcus Stroman vs. Dylan Covey

Aaron Sanchez vs. Ivan Nova

TBD vs. Lucas Giolito

Trent Thornton vs. Reynaldo Lopez

PROBABLE BLUE JAYS LINEUP

Freddy Galvis – SS

Vladimir Guererro Jr. – 3B

Justin Smoak – 1B

Rowdy Tellez – DH

Fun Police Randall Grichuk – RF

Brandon Drury – 2B

Teoscar Hernandez – LF

Danny Jansen – C

Jonathan Davis – CF

PROBABLE WHITE SOX LINEUP

Leury Garcia – CF

Yoan Moncada – 3B

Jose Abreu – 1B

Yonder Alonso – DH

James McCann – C

Charlie Tilson – LF

Tim Anderson – SS

Yolmer Sanchez – 2B

Ryan Cordell – RF

 

MLB scheduling has done me no real favors by having these two teams go at it on back-to-back weekends, because Sam appropriately said all the necessary things in last week’s preview, but that doesn’t mean we can’t talk rehash some stuff or get a find a few new things to touch on. Since we last left the Jays on Sunday, they had Monday off and then split a two-game interleague set with the Giants out in the Bay. The most important development in that series was pretty obviously Vlad Jr. hitting the first home runs of his career, and doing so in exciting fashion with two in one game. They were both monster bombs, as well.

Vlad uncorking dingers now and potentially getting off the early career shnide is the kind of development that would make this season much more tolerable for Jays fans, in no dissimilar way to the explosions of Moncada, Anderson, Giolito, etc. has been able to make this a much more tolerable, fun, and interesting start for Sox fans. There was never really a doubt that Vlad would hit, hit, and hit, in the bigs, and even the most hyped prospects tend to get off to slow starts. Still, I have to imagine Jays fans were hoping for a bit more from him, just like Sox fans were hoping for a bit more from Eloy, who was in a similar boat in terms of his hit and power tools projecting to MLB. Still, both Jays and Sox fans are gonna have to be patient, and I am sure that most of them have no problems with that either.

Speaking of Eloy, his return to the roster and lineup has a potential to be a positive development for the Sox in this series, as well. He went down to Charlotte for a rehab stint the past two nights, and was pulled in the 6th inning of Wednesday’s game. If he’s healthy and ready to return, there is certainly no sense in leaving him AAA just to rehab – he needs MLB at bats more than anything. So I wouldn’t exactly be surprised if he ended up in the lineup on Thursday, though I am not confident enough in that to list him the probable lineup above.

Giolito getting the Saturday home start after dominating the Jays last Sunday is certainly promising, and having seen him pitch so well in his last few times out, him having one more go at a pretty anemic lineup is more than fine by me. I can understand people having reservations about buying into Gio considering he’s turned in his recent dominance against bad lineups, but don’t forget that last year he was getting hit hard by everyone. And also, good pitchers should dominate bad lineups. I don’t necessarily think Gio is the ace of the future, but he’s the ace right now, and MLB scouts with a lot more baseball knowledge than me used to think he was a future ace, so that talent and potential might still be in him somewhere. I am not gonna complain about him pitching well at all.

If the Sox can take 3-of-4 from this weekend, they’ll be one game shy of .500, and if they can take a sweep somehow, they’ll be one game above .500 on May 19. Just like we all predicted.

Baseball

So…Is This Cubs Thing Real?

By Sam Fels 1472 0

If you follow me, you know I had a good chuckle at the mass self-defenestrations going on around town when the Cubs started out 2-7. It amounted to not much more than a bad week, and every team has a bad week in baseball. In fact, they have more than a bad week. You’ll recall the 2016 Cubs went and had a bad month before the All-Star break. The 104-win Dodgers of ’17 couldn’t tie their shoes, breathe right, or manage to not fall down for four minutes for basically all of September. Last year’s Red Sox…lost like, four of five once. Anyway, teams do this.

Since then, there has been no team better than the Cubs, and they currently they have the best winning-percentage in the National League and are only behind the Astros overall. Now, the Cubs aren’t 23-7 good. No one is, as that would be a 124-win pace. Currently, they’re on a 104-win pace. They have a +56 run-differential, however you value that, which is tied with the Dodgers for best in the NL and behind the Rays and Astros overall (WAY behind the Astros at +83). By that measure, the Cubs should be exactly what they are, at 25-14. They’re right along their expected axis.

So with a bad week-plus and now essentially a dominant five-six weeks in the book, are they this? I was curious.

The way we can find out, at least partially, is to see if there are irrationally spiking stats to this season. Maybe an abnormal BABIP or average with runners in scoring position or the like. Shall we?

Offensively, the Cubs don’t really lead in any category, they’re just among the best in pretty much every one. They’re 11th in runs overall. They have the second-best wOBA in the NL, one point behind the Dodgers and behind the Astros and Twins overall (again, miles behind the Astros. Seriously, do the Astros ever lose? Should they?) If you go by wRC+, they’re still second but there’s a slightly bigger gap to the Dodgers in the NL. Again, no one’s with in 19 points of the Astros in this category, and you should just start preparing yourself for this season maxing out at losing to Houston in five games in October. That’s like the best scenario right now.

wOBA and wRC+ kind of filter out the noise, but in case you need to know the Cubs are 10th when it comes to BABIP at .301. That mark has always put a team between 10th-15th the past five years, so it’s hardly remarkable. I go to average with runners in scoring position just because that’s kind of a thing that can spike, and also something I laugh at the Cardinals for for years now as in ’15 they hit .308 in that spot as a team, claimed it was just the Cardinal Way instead of just luck, and then haven’t been heard from since. Anyway, the Cubs are hitting .260 right now in that spot, which is right in the middle of the pack. So there’s no spiking there. There’s really no spiking offensively at all.

If you look individually, it’s entirely possible that Bryant and Baez will flatten out at some point, though the latter more than the former because there’s little luck about what Bryant is doing. Contreras too. But Rizzo is due a correction, and Jason Heyward might as well (though don’t count on it). I think the offense is just this good, even if that’s still based on a Schwarber-binge I’ve been waiting for since like 2017 now.

To the pitching side. The Cubs have the second-best ERA in the NL, third-best in baseball, and by the time this series with the Reds is over might take over the NL-lead. If you go by FIP, which takes the defense out of the equation, the Cubs rank 9th overall and 6th in the NL. It seems unfair to eliminate the defense when talking about this, because the Cubs have constructed this really good defensive team and their pitchers won’t stop benefitting from it this season. But we’ll come back to this. If you go by xFIP, which seeks to filter out odd home run spikes, the Cubs are fourth in baseball.

When it comes to luck categories while pitching, the Cubs rank 6th in BABIP against at .275. Now here’s where you might see something of a market correction, but it probably won’t be a large one. The past five years, a team BABIP-against mark of .275 would have been first or second-lowest every year. But, the Cubs the past five years have never had one higher than .287, because of that defense, and that includes an utterly insane .255 against in 2016 (seriously, that team was like seven 1986 Patrick Roys). Because of what the Cubs sport defensively, it’s very hard to imagine that they’re going to stop being close to this efficient in getting outs unless all their starters begin giving up ICBMS all the time.

The Cubs are also benefitting a touch from their left-on-base percentage at 76.6%. But that’s not obscenely high, and basically in line with what they’ve done for the past five years.

So based on league-wide stats, the Cubs basically are this good. There’s nothing weird about them being here right now. Obviously, multiple players could hit slumps, or get hurt, or something that will flatten these out come June or July or August.

As far as comparing them to the 103-win 2016 team, they’re a touch behind but most of that could be explained by variance. They strike out slightly more hitters, but walk more. They have a slightly worse ERA and FIP. Offensively, they’re actually a touch better than 2016 so far. They walk a little more, though strike out a little more. They slug more, get on base a touch better. So by what we know here in town as well, the Cubs are where they should be as well.

So basically, everybody shut up unless you’re going to be happy.