Baseball

Cubs Are Pushing Hard For Craig Kimbrel, Because They Have To Be

By Sam Fels 1388 0

It would be hard to believe that the cost of a draft pick, or the few million in prorated dollars the Cubs will save now, was enough to put them off Craig Kimbrel in the winter. But apparently it was, and the Cubs have waited for the in-season discount to heavily go after him. Reports today from various Athletic outlets have the Cubs really making a move. Whatever that may mean, but it would be hard to believe that Kimbrel is taking a one-year deal.

From the Cubs side, they almost have no choice. They don’t have a wealth of prospects they can keep tossing aside to get the requisite number of relievers they need, which is multiple. So they might as well get a good one for free. They tend to leave room in the budget for midseason acquisitions, and we don’t know how much of that Kimbrel would gobble up. They’ve also been making noise that the establishment of Marquee is going to turn the cash spigot on next winter, and this may be a small advance on that. Believe that when you see it, though.

Are there baseball concerns with Kimbrel? Some, yes, but it depends on what your scales are. Kimbrel’s strikeouts in ’18 were down from ’17, but that’s only because ’17 was such an galactic season from him. He struck out 50% in ’17. Half. No one is going to keep up that pace, and he didn’t also have to. He struck out 38.9% last year, which is so far beyond anything anyone else in the Cubs pen can do that it’s not even worth talking about. It’s about his career-average, which is 41.6%. It’s not a huge concern.

His walks are a bit more. They were 12.6% last year, which is too high but also a number he’s gone over before. But even with those walks, his WHIP was o.99. Yeah, walks are bad, but if no one ever hits you, you can get away with it. Sure, that WHIP was down from ’17’s dungeon master 0.68, but right in line with his career 0.92. It shouldn’t get your hackles too far raised.

Encouragingly, whatever contact Kimbrel did give up, it was much softer, as he saw a 12% dip in hard-contact. If his strikeouts aren’t going to be half anymore, then softer contact is important. Kimbrel is getting it.

Another note was that Kimbrel’s velocity was down between his last two seasons, from 98.3 to 97.1. But that ’17 mark was a spike, because 97.1 is his career average. His curve got a little more slurvy last year, which might raise an eyebrow. It lost some vertical drop but gained horizontal cut. It’s really the change of pace that’s important, but that’s something to watch if he ends up here. If this matters, and I don’t know if it does, his curve had the same spin-rate the last two years. The horizontal release point on it moved farther wide, meaning he was throwing more across his body, which might explain why it had that slurve-type movement. Whether that’s intentional or not we’ll find out.

Another yellow light was last year’s playoff performance, where he gave up runs in his first four appearances against both the Yankees and Astros, and then another two runs in Game 4 against the Dodgers. In the interim he loaded up four outings where he didn’t give up anything over four innings, just one hit. There’s really not much to explain. He wasn’t good, facing some other worldly lineups, and if he were a Cub he’d have to face one or two more for everything to work out the way we want it. But the question would be if he can’t do it, who can?

Kimbrel isn’t a cure-all. The Cubs would need at least one more arm, preferable from the left side but at least someone who gets lefties out. Still, Kimbrel, Strop, Mystery Acquisition, Cishek is a nice base, and if Carl Edwards or Dillon Maples (or Alzolay?)  or both ever figure it out, with this rotation, I’ll take my chances. There’s still a lot of ifs there, but the signing of Kimbrel would make it seem like there’s light at the end of the tunnel.

And this is a season the Cubs should try and maximize. They might not have this good of a rotation again, even if it had a wonky couple weeks there. The offense is really good, despite what everyone is screaming while stabbing themselves in various sensitive places. Maybe it’s just the right to get thwacked by the Dodgers, but in a short series, take your swing.

They’ll have competition, but the Cubs probably have to make this work.

Baseball

Series Preview – Rockies vs. Cubs: Heater vs. Cooler

By Sam Fels 1189 0

vs.

RECORDS: Rockies 31-27   Cubs 32-26

GAMETIMES: Tuesday and Wednesday 7:05, Thursday 1:20

TV: NBCSN Tuesday and Thursday, WGN Wednesday

THINGS TO DO WHEN YOU’RE DEAD: Purple Row

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Jeff Hoffman vs. Kyle Hendricks

Geman Marquez vs. Yu Darvish

Jon Gray vs. Jose Quintana

PROBABLE ROCKIES LINEUP

Raimel Tapia – LF

Trevor Story – SS

David Dahl – RF

Nolan Arenado – 3B

Daniel Murphy – 1B

Ryan McMahon – 2B

Ian Desmond – CF

Tony Wolters – C

PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

Kyle Schwarber – LF

Kris Bryant – 3B

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Javier Baez – SS

Carlos Gonzalez – RF

Victor Caratini – C

Jason Heyward – CF

Addison Russell – 2B

 

And so the return. The last time the Purple were in Wrigley, the Cubs were watching a second team in as many nights celebrate on their field, having managed two runs over some 22 innings. It was quite the piece of performance art. The Rockies come in this time around the hottest team in baseball, having won nine of their last 10 and eight in a row. While you first think of them having got off to a horrendous start and languishing somewhere in the desert of the pointless, they’re only one game worse off than the Cubs. They’re just in the wrong division. But if we’re doing wild card chases already, and I guess we are, they’re right in the thick of it.

The schedule certainly did the Rockies a favor over this last stretch. One they were at home, and two they were playing some of the more punchable teams around. Lineup the Orioles, Diamondbacks, and Blue Jays in front of anyone able to remain upright for a good hour and you’re probably going to get that team some wins. But hey, can only play who is in front of you and all that.

As you might imagine, the offense got pretty healthy over that stretch, piling up 22 runs in three games against the Jays, 26 over four against Arizona, and 22 against the Os over three. Nolan Arenado and Trevor Storey are particularly hot, with the former batting near .500 over the past two weeks and the latter the latest player of the week in the NL. Coming in behind them is David Dahl, subbing for the injured Chuck Nasty, at .420 the past 14 days. Basically everyone with a bat is feeling pretty good about themselves, though overall catcher, first, and second have been dark spots for them. And Dahl should be playing every day somewhere, but the need to cram Ian Desmond into the lineup due to his paycheck and Blackmon’s inability to cover center anymore is another complication.

The Cubs will sadly see the two best starters the Rockies have in Gray and Marquez. They won’t get to see Freeland this time around, who’s been a grade-school chemistry experiment all season. Gray has had some home run problems, but then so does every Rockies pitcher (except for Marquez it seems). Starting it all off will be some dude named Jeff Hoffman, who has an ERA over 7.00 but can’t get a slice of luck or anyone to catch anything for him anywhere.

Much like last year, the Rockies’ pen has been the real key for them, even though they strike out less than anyone. They rank fourth and fifth in the NL in ERA and FIP (somehow right behind the Cubs if you can believe it). Wade Davis isn’t around at the moment, but Bryan Shaw, Scott Oberg, and Chad Bettis are holding down the fort just fine.

For the Cubs, they’ll welcome back Pedro Strop, who might be carried in like a Roman emperor given the state of everything right now. They got a healthy turn through the rotation and are back to Hendricks who kicked it off in Houston last Wednesday, and that’s really the key for the Cubs. When they get good starts, they’re good, and everything else settles in behind it. This is not the easiest stretch by any means, as a home date with the Cards is sandwiched with all the Rockies games of the season, and that’s followed by four in Chavez Ravine to play those aliens. Better kick it up a gear now or it could be a problem.

 

Baseball

Rockies Spotlight: German Marquez, The Greatest Rockies Starter Of All-Time. No, Seriously

By Sam Fels 1108 0

Perhaps being named “The Best Rockies Starter” of all-time is something of a misnomer, or a comedy title no one would ever want. After all, no pitcher in his right mind with any quality isn’t getting the hell out of there as soon as possible. Why put yourself through it? It’s something of a pyrrhic victory. And yet, here we are. In only his third full season as a starter, German Marquez is like a season and a half from gathering the most amount of WAR in Rockies history as a starter.

Going even farther than that, Marquez is working on his second consecutive season of a sub-4.00 FIP. He’d be the third Rockies starter to do it after Ubaldo Jimenez and teammate Jon Gray, if you can believe it.  To give you some idea of how bad pitching in Coors has been for the masses, Jason Hammel has the 10th-most WAR for a Rockies pitcher, ever. Tyler Chatwood is 14th. You just marinate on that one for a second.

Marquez is the great hope now, at age-24, that the Rockies will finally have a consistent ace to turn to. They thought it would be Gray, who was never really that bad last year after his breakout ’17 but got sent down anyway. He’s back now, and more than fine, but the idea of him joining the Scherzers and Kershaws of the world has long faded.  He’s just an effective starter.

There has been every theory tossed at the wall to figure out what it takes to have an effective staff in Coors Field. Some have thought you need a bevy of ground-ball pitchers, and that has some merit. However, the way the ground dries out at altitude makes for a pretty hard infield, so grounders scoot through a little more often than they do everywhere else. And some of that is roster construction, as only in the past couple of seasons have the Rockies put together an infield that’s good at sucking up grounders. They’ve ranked in the top-10 in ground-ball efficiency the past two years, after always being in the back half of the pack the five years before.

And Marquez does that, increasing his grounders rate every year and to be over half this year. We can all agree that keeping the ball out of the air in Coors is preferable to taking your chances on the altitude and ranch-like spaces in the outfield. Both Jimenez and Aaron Cook, the names on top of the Rockies pitching list (I know, it’s so funny) got over 55% grounders when they were in purple.

Another thought was that your staff had better throw pretty hard. As the thin air can flatten out breaking pitches and movement, it’s not going to do much about velocity. That will always play in the conditions. Marquez certainly does that, averaging 95.2 MPH on his fastball, top-15 in the league. Jimenez also threw pretty damn hard, especially for the time period, but Cook did not. It’s not mandatory, but appears to be a really good idea.

Marquez’s strikeouts are down this year, but so are his walks, and unlike pretty much every other Rockies pitcher in history, he hasn’t seen a spike in the homers he gives up per fly ball. It helps to give up less flies every year as Marquez is doing, but unlike Gray or others he’s never seen a season where he’s got some 20% mark simply because the gods laugh at you at every turn.

Marquez has become exceedingly slider-happy this year, throwing it over a quarter of the time. It’s his curve that seems to be the real weapon though, as hitters are managing all of a .098 average against it this year, while whiffing at nearly half the swings they take. His slider is around there too. Which is kind of amazing, because it was thought that it was harder to have effective breaking pitches in Denver. Marquez doesn’t seem to care.

Either way, the Rockies might finally have their ace. It only took 26 years. Sometimes these things take time.

 

Baseball

Series Preview – White Sox vs. Nationals: A Brief Swamp Stop

By Sam Fels 1114 0

vs.

RECORDS: White Sox 29-30   Nationals 26-33

GAMETIMES: Tuesday 6:05, Wednesday 12:05

TV: WGN Tuesday, NBCSN Wednesday

WHAT A BUNCH OF CLOWNS: Federal Baseball

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Reynaldo Lopez vs. Stephen Strasburg

Dylan Covey vs. Anibal Sanchez

PROBABLE WHITE SOX LINEUP

Leury Garcia – CF

Yoan Moncada – 3B

Jose Abreu – 1B

James McCann – C

Tim Anderson – SS

Eloy Jimenez – LF

Charlie Tilson – RF

Yolmer Sanchez – 2B

PROBABLE NATS LINEUP

Trea Turner – SS

Adam Eaton – RF

Anthony Rendon – 3B

Juan Soto – LF

Howie Kendrick – 2B

Matt Adams – 1B

Victor Robles – CF

Yan Gomes – C

 

Within touching distance now of .500, the Sox head to the nation’s capital for a series that will be over in a matter of 20 hours or so. Such is the “beauty” of interleague play, which will also leave the Sox with two off-days in the same week, which is much preferable to having another one in August I’m sure. The Sox could leave and be heading to KC with an above-water mark, and you would think the Nationals would be the perfect candidate for that kind of propulsion. However, the lights may just be starting to flicker on for the Nats, though there’s still a long way to go.

Since getting domed in Queens by the Mets for four straight, and being right around where the Marlins are which is how you definitely know you should have taken a right at Albuquerque, the Nationals have taken seven of nine as the schedule has unquestionably lightened up on them. In that span they’ve gotten to play the Marlins, Braves, and Reds, though the latter two aren’t pushovers.

The bats have seem to awakened a bit for Washington, as other than Turner and Robles everyone has turned on the past two weeks. Juan Soto especially has been a beacon of destruction of late.

The rotation is always going to be good, and the Sox will only have to see one-third of the magic troika at the top in the form of Stephen Strasburg. Max Scherzer is basically running the team now and struck out 15 Reds on Sunday, so the Sox will avoid that hell. Anibal Sanchez has lost all of the control that made him special, or at least good, in the past but remains behind the first three due to a lack of other options. Show some patience there.

The bullpen has been where the real issues are, as the Nationals have been unable to find any bridge to closer Sean Doolittle all season, and basically last as well. They can’t even find a float there. No one other than Doolittle is carrying an ERA under 4.50, and you know it’s bad when one of your relievers keeps ending up on Deadspin for his performance as Trevor Rosenthal managed. Of late, Matt Grace and Tanner Rainey have managed to at least to keep fires from becoming infernos, though a heavy use of Rainey last week sent more quizzical looks at manager Dave Martinez. There’s still a lot of gasoline here.

The Nationals shouldn’t be here, and are another bad week or two from either firing Martinez, blowing it all up and selling at the deadline, or both. This team’s cycle seems like it’s on the back side if not at the end, though they’re paying those three pitchers so much you feel like they always have to go for it. Still feels like something broke here though that can’t be fixed for a while.

For the Sox, they’re going to do everyone a favor and use the extra off-day to skip Manny Banuelos in the rotation and keep the air somewhat breathable. Lopez will be happy to see May over, and will face the team that sent him to the Sox for the first time. Covey will attempt to build on a win for the first time since dinosaurs, or so it seemed, with that coming on Friday vs. Cleveland.

Not that the Sox have that big of aims for this year, but seven games against the sputtering Nats and unfortunate Royals this close to .500 is pretty enticing.

 

Baseball

Nationals Spotlight: Is Dave Martinez Over His Head?

By Sam Fels 1202 0

Baseball is weird in so many ways, which is probably why we watch in the first place. When it comes to managers, and whether or not they should be removed from their jobs, it’s so much easier to identify in other sports. You can tell when a football coach is running the wrong system for his personnel or has watched the game pass him by (we’ve done more than enough of both locally). It’s even clearer in basketball when a coach isn’t maximizing his players, whether they need to be playing faster or with more shooters on the floor or if the offense has become stagnant or the defense doesn’t bother. In hockey you can always tell when a team has quit on its coach and is either too loose with fundamentals and not paying attention to the details or is feeling restricted by too-tight reins.

But this is baseball. There is no “system.” You send your guys out one at a time and they do their thing. Sure, there are details to be paid attention to and you know when a team isn’t. There can be a lack of hustle. But these tend to be more around the fringes than structural. Still, you kind of know when a manager in baseball is going to eat it. And whether he should. It’s more of just a feeling.

Which brings us to Dave Martinez. The Nats thought bringing over the lieutenant of the team that put them out to pasture in 2017 was a better idea than hanging on to Dusty Baker, who had actually improved as a manager over the years but was unable to bring the Nationals their first playoff advancement. And that was basically because the Cubs unleashed some BABIP Kung Fu Treachery on Max Scherzer in the 5th inning of Game 5 then. Not much to be done. But this has been an organization in panic for years. First it was about taking advantage of a true World Series worthy core. Then it was just about winning a series for once. Then it was about being something to convince Bryce Harper to stay. Now it’s about absorbing Harper’s departure. They seem to be running from one end to the other without taking a breath .

So Martinez was brought over from the Cubs last year. And it all went flat. The Nats were barely .500, they never were within touching distance of the Braves, Harper checked out, and it all just kind of didn’t work. But it should have. Even with holes at second and center, it was a more than decent lineup. The rotation got its usual from Strasburg and Scherzer, with Jeremy Hellickson somehow joining the party. But one of Martinez’s bugaboos has been managing the pen, or over-managing it, not that the Nats have put together much out there. Doolittle was hurt for part of the year, but pitchers felt he was riding them too hard in May, and pretty much everyone lost confidence and it all went south.

It hasn’t been much better this year. To be fair to Martinez, the offense has gone south without Harper, as Trea Turner has been hurt and not all that good when he’s been around, Ryan Zimmerman is out with his yearly plague, Brian Dozier was terrible, and Victor Robles is going through some growing pains. The rotation has been everything they could have hoped for, but the pen has the worst ERA in the majors and once again everyone is complaining about their usage and Martinez’s methods.

There’s something unquantifiable about an unhappy club. It’s more than losing. Lots of teams lose. But you can tell when something is amiss, when players are side-eying everything. The Nationals should not under any circumstance be anywhere close to the Marlins in the standings. They were like two weeks ago. Too many players are not performing to their normal levels, much less peaks. Everyone is getting the impression Martinez is managing for his job, which leads to even more panicked bullpen usage and strange decisions in a big to get anything going.

It’s still out there for the Nats. The Phillies haven’t completely gotten away in the division. the Braves continue to sputter and flicker, and the Mets have a terminal case of being the Mets. But Martinez has had a season and a half to get them close, and he hasn’t yet. You don’t feel like the Nationals are going to wait much longer.

Baseball

2019 MLB Draft: White Sox Miss Out On Miracle, End Up With Guy Who Mashes Anyway

By Adam Hess 1424 0

Regardless of how you feel about “amateur” drafts in professional sports, they’re probably never going away in America because of the spectacle they bring. The NFL Draft is their second biggest cash cow to the Super Bowl, the NBA and NHL are able to steal the attention of their audience that cares twice because they have the lottery, and even baseball has one of the more intriguing draft formats that opens the possibility for chaos under the right circumstances. But baseball essentially needs the chaos for it to be any fun, because there are a small number of people who care enough about learning who might play for their team in two or three years enough to pay attention, and MLB Network insists on making the draft itself unwatchable by forcing Harold Reynolds upon us.

Unfortunately for White Sox fans, the lack of chaos last night resulted in two losses – the loss of a dream (kind of) and the loss of three hours of your life if you continued to watch much longer after the Sox picked at #3.

You may not have to pay a great deal of attention to college baseball and/or MLB draft news to have known that Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman was the top prospect in the draft this year, and with the Sox picking at #3 there was always a snowball’s chance in hell they would end up with him. But because of the Slot Value system MLB uses in the draft, which assigns a value to each pick but doesn’t necessarily require teams to pay the player they take that exact amount, there was some thought Baltimore might try to save some money on their first pick and go in a different direction. Given Baltimore GM Mike Elias’ history of doing so as souting director in Houston, it wasn’t exactly a stupid thought, especially since they’re at least 5 years away from contention and Rutschman is little more than 18 months away from being a star at the MLB level. Had they taken someone besides Rutschman and Bobby Witt, Jr. at number one, the thought was that the Royals loved Witt enough to take him at two regardless and the Sox would have Rutschman gift wrapped to them at three.

However, in something of a turn of events for them, Baltimore wisely did not screw up their golden opportunity and took the switch-hitting star in Rutschman. Instead, the White Sox ended up with California 1B Andrew Vaughn, who mashed his way through college and won the Golden Spikes award as the top player in the NCAA as a sophomore in 2018.

Vaughn earns high marks for his bat, with MLB Pipeline giving him 60 grades on both his hit and power tools. He’s coming off a junior campaign in which he hit .381/.544/.716 with 15 homers and 50 RBI. That line was down a bit from his 2018 campaign in which he hit .402/.531/.819 with 23 homers and 63 RBI, but that’s most because those insane numbers made him a prime candidate to be pitched around in an otherwise-normal Cal lineup. Despite playing in just two fewer games than his 2018 campaign, Vaughn had 23 less hits and 15 more walks in 2019, which shows just how much this guy scared the shit out of college pitchers and coaches alike.

The thing about Vaughn that is simultaneously encouraging and terrifying is that it’s hard to find a scouting report that doesn’t rave about his bat. This guy has been called the best college hitter since Kris Bryant, so there is little doubt that this guy is going to hit and hit and hit in the majors. Jim Callis from MLB.com said on MLB Network this week that Vaughn is the safest bet to be a 35 HR per year guy in this draft. Some people have said he could easily do that while hitting .300. He’s also probably gonna be in the majors quickly, possibly even sooner than Rutschman. Basically, this guy is pretty close to a sure bet to be a middle of the order bat, and fast. Those don’t grow on trees, so you take them where you can. Where it’s terrifying is that if history tells us anything about White Sox prospects, it’s that he will assuredly suffer some debilitating injury and throw off his timeline.

This pick also raises a few questions for the Sox’ system moving forward. Vaughn worked out at third base for teams during the draft process, and I am certainly not opposed to the Sox trying him there in the minors at the start, because if he can have that kind of bat and play the hot corner, his value as a player or trade asset skyrockets. But if that doesn’t work, he doesn’t have near the speed or glove for the outfield, so it’s back to first base for him creating a log jam of sorts in the system. Jake Burger Zack Collins are both bat-first prospects who might need to move to 1B, and Gavin Sheets is another 1B-only guy in AA at the moment. In Collins’ case, he’s got the kinda bat you just want in the lineup, so he’d be fine as a DH, and he can probably stick behind the plate well enough to catch 60-70 games for you, so if he ends up as a guy you move around between 1B/DH/C, that’s actually fine. But Burger and Sheets now look like they might be little more than trade chips, and not exactly intriguing ones.

And while middle of the order bats are not easy to come by, there are some legit concerns you can raise with drafting a guy who’s likely to end up at first base in the top-5 of a draft. If he hits the ceiling and ends up as that .300-hitting, 30-dinger mashing guy, no one will care where he was drafted. But if he doesn’t and a guy like CJ Abrams, whom the Sox were heavily linked to in the week prior to the draft and ended up with the Padres (because of couse the guy the Sox were linked to ended up with the Padres), turns into a stud SS/CF, we’re gonna be left with another “what could’ve been” moment.

For now, though, the Sox are looking at a future 1-2-3-4 lineup of Luis Robert, Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez, and Vaughn. That’s four guys who should hit around .270 or better and combine for 80-100 homers a year if all goes according to plan. I very much like the sound of that.

Baseball

Do I Have To Give Up On The War Bear?

By Sam Fels 1756 0

While I’m not drying to put my head through various spots of drywall after this 6-12 stretch, it has become pretty clear that the Cubs inhabit a second tier of the majors. Which is…fine. It’s certainly good enough to win the division, and even make some noise in October. They’re not 6-12 bad, just as they weren’t 2-7 bad to start the year, and probably not 22-7 good in the middle there. But what’s clear is that the Astros and Dodgers, essentially the two teams the Cubs have been compared to since the whole cycle started, are in a different class than them. It shouldn’t be that way, or doesn’t feel like it should, but let’s be honest about it.

One day in the future, we’ll do a deep dive about how the Cubs lost the high ground to the Dodgers in the NL, because they had it over them in 2016 for sure. But to put it in one line, the Cubs never created a second wave of produced players/stars after Rizzo and Bryant (throw Contreras or Baez in there if you want, though neither were “stars” in ’16). Meanwhile, the Dodgers introduced Cody Bellinger to the world, were able to be patient with Joc Pederson (or have the White Sox fuck up trading for him, your pick), now have Alex Verdugo in tow in the interim, along with reclamation projects/science experiments Max Muncy and Chris Taylor and whoever else.

And the Cubs have made bets on their products, and none have really worked out. And the one they bought biggest into was Kyle Schwarber you could argue, because there was a time and place when he would have had serious value in a trade. And now you worry they’ve held on too long and perhaps ruined that value forever, while having a player that may just never be what he flashed in 2015.

Schwarber has been able to somewhat hide under the glow of the ’16 World Series, and as much as I love the dude and still believe there’s a wildebeest in there somewhere, it’s one that annoys me. Yes, Schwarbs had seven hits after sitting out an entire season, and that is kind of amazing on that level. On another, he had one extra-base hit and strung a few singles together. And it was only 20 PAs, which is nothing. When considering what Schwarber is and what he will be, it’s best to ignore all of it.

On the other side, there’s this idea that in the two intervening seasons since he’s been a total bum. Nope. He’s been above average offensively in both, and was even a 3.0 WAR player last year, which if you can believe it made him one of the more valuable left-fielders around last year (seriously, it did. He was like sixth behind Pham, Benintendi, Rosario, Peralta, and Brantley). Schwarber hasn’t been a drag on anyone before this, he just hasn’t been the star we’d hoped.

So what’s the deal with Schwarber this year? The easy thing to say is he strikes out too much. Except he’s not striking out really any more than he ever has. And he’s walking a ton, top-15 in baseball, and walks are good. We like walks. So then the next thing to say is he’s not hitting the ball with authority. Except he is. Schwarber’s hard-contact rate is the highest of his career. So his line-drive rate. If you go by Statcast, his average exit-velocity is the highest of his career as well. In fact, his 92.6 MPH average is also in the top 20 in baseball.

Could it be that Schwarber is just unlucky? The .257 BABIP would suggest so, but it’s really not that far below his career number. Because Schwarber is one who gets gobbled up by shifting infields a lot.

If you reduce it down to May, that month was even weirder for Schwarber. He walked nearly 20% of the time, had an OBP of .345, hit everything hard… and hit .196. Could it be he’s just doomed?

Schwarber isn’t the ark-of-the-covenant-horrific high-leverage hitter he was last year, but he also still is very bad. Schwarbs has a 77 wRC+ in medium leverage situations (100 is average) and 66 in high. With men in scoring position, he’s -1. -1. Like…through the looking glass awful. And yet, all his walk or strikeout or contact numbers hardly change at all when there are men on base. He’s the same guy.

What’s clear is that Schwarber has some clear holes. Fastballs even just high in the zone and middle of the plate in he can’t get to. He also can’t hit a breaking ball. Like at all. They don’t even have to be out of the zone. Don’t believe me?

Schwarber whiffs on half the swings he takes at curves, and it’s not much better on sliders. As he leads off, he generally only sees men on base later in the game, when relievers are specially trained to throw gas high and breaking stuff after it. He’s easily identified, let’s say.

I’m just not sure what the answer is. I know it’s not Carlos Gonzalez, who has been three aliens dressed as Carlos Gonzalez for like four seasons now. I have to believe that if Schwarber continues to walk nearly 20% of the time, keeps hitting the ball as hard as he is, good things will happen.

Because a dangerous, even dominant Schwarber extends this lineup to at least a point where it can see the Dodgers. There would still be holes at second, center, and right (don’t look now but Russell is kind of hitting, as gross as it is). And the bullpen needs too much work to go chasing a bat. There aren’t enough assets for everything. Unless Schwarber becomes one of those flogged assets. Is it even possible now?

Baseball

Series Wrap – Sox Take 3 of 4 From Tribe: Feelin It

By Andy Jonathan 1216 0

White Sox 10, Indians 4

White Sox 6, Indians 1

White Sox 2, Indians 5

Lucas Giolito and Tim Anderson 2 – Indians 0

 

Is…is this what pride in your team feels like?  It’s been so long, I suppose I’d forgotten how nice it was.  While the Sox still have quite a ways to go hauling themselves up the side of the Sisyphean-esque mountain that Sox management has created for itself, this is a nice marker for a team that may just have deigns on competing this year.  Even if (when) the bottom drops out and the boulder rolls back over them, it’s cool for a weekend to own a team that has knocked their collective junk in the dirt the last 5 years.   Make no mistake, while the Sox are climbing up one side of the mountain it seems the Indians are picking up speed on the other side, hurtling down towards the burning shores of the Cuyahoga.

Let’s talk about some stuff, shall we?

 

NUMBERS DON’T LIE

 

– If you would’ve told me two weeks ago that Manny Banuelos and Dylan Covey would outduel Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer I would’ve laughed and pushed you into the street (I’m a terrible person).  Night one saw Carrasco unable to keep his breaking pitches out of the zone, resulting in quite a few of them going back the opposite direction at speeds normally associated with satellites falling out of orbit.  Banuelos did just enough to keep the noodle-armed tribe off the basepaths and in the field, then let his offense do the rest.  Abreu, Alonso and Eloy had 7 RBIs between the 3 of them, with Jiminez breaking the ice with a 2 run double.  It’s nice to see Alonso contribute something to the equation, but he still shouldn’t be hitting fucking 4th.

 

-Night 2 saw the Covey give up a lead off bomb to Francisco Lindor (God it’s gonna suck when the Cubs sign him) that killed a Super Ropes vendor in the right-center seats.  This had me primed for another Covey Special, where I can turn the game off in the 2nd inning (the outcome predetermined) and fire up Mortal Kombat on my PS4.  I decided to keep it on a little longer, and was rewarded by the other side of the lineup jumping Bauer for 6 runs (2 earned) and making the Indians pay for some seriously shoddy D.  Covey ended up getting a quality start on the evening, plus his first win since August of 2018(!).  I’m happy for him, but if this team has any interest in making this season more than just a stop on the Eternal Rebuild Train, then he can’t be the 5th starter much longer.  Time for me to start beating the Marcus Stroman drum, eh?

 

– Game 3 was the lone blight of the weekend, with the Sox repaying the Cleveland error-fest of the previous night with the type of base running normally seen when I’m playing MLB The Show shitfaced in my basement.  The Sox ran into a double play with the Indians not even having to throw a pitch.  If you really wanna see it, you can watch the video here, but I’m not going to waste any more time on it other than to say that Yolmer and Tilson know what they did, and they better not fucking do it again.  The Sox stranded a shitload of players, Renteria left Nova in too long and pitched Herrera too much.  Fart.

 

– Game 4 was another masterful performance by Lucas Giolito, and another blast by Tim Anderson.  Seriously, I’m running out of superlatives as to just how good Gio has looked these last few outings, so instead just watch this curveball over and over again.  It’s hypnotic.  Gio ended up going 7.1 innings, with Bummer and Colome finishing off the Tribe for the series win.  The only downer on the day was Eloy striking out in each plate appearance today, still seeing a steady diet of breaking pitches.  I’m not ready to call him Pedro Cerrano yet, but the similarities are getting somewhat striking.  I still have faith he’s gonna get his timing down and send Alonso to the bottom 3rd of the order where he belongs.  Timmy continues to be the most entertaining thing since Ozzie Guillen, and his pose after he murdered the cutter from Plesac (who actually pitched pretty well) made me cackle like a mental patient.  More please.

 

Next up is a quick 2 game series against the Nats.   Thankfully the Sox manage to dodge Stephen Strasburg, who is back to his old dominating self.  The Sox currently sit 1 game out of .500 and 2 games out of the 2nd wild card spot.  The Nats are a beatable shitshow right now, then it’s another helping of the Kansas City Trash Goblins.  There’s no reason for the Sox to be anything but at least 2 games above .500 by the end of the week.  In the past, this is where the trap door would open and the Sox would plummet to the depths of the AL.  I have a feeling this time might be different.  ONWARD!

 

 

Baseball

Series Wrap – Cubs Swept By Cardinals: And Here Come The Pretzels

By Sam Fels 1435 0

Game 1 Box Score: Cardinals 2, Cubs 1

Game 2 Box Score: Cardinals 7, Cubs 4

Game 3 Box Score: Cardinals 2, Cubs 1

It’s always important to breathe at a moment like this. Sweeps at the hand of those from Mos Eisley tend to accentuate the emotions and anger and whatever your particular grievance is with the team at that time. So it is tempting to say that the offense completely sucks, even though it doesn’t. Or that the rotation isn’t good enough, even though they didn’t do anything wrong this weekend. Or that the pen is an absolute abomination…and that would be correct.

The Cubs lost three coin-flips essentially, one caused by a three-hour rain delay which I’m more and more convinced shouldn’t be a thing that exist unless they have to. Both teams looked pretty damn flat this afternoon after a very late night last night, and the Cubs just made one ore two more mistakes and lost the last one.

It’s still important to note that this team is fourth in runs in the NL, second in wOBA. It might not feel like it right now, especially when they just got bladdered by a corpse, but they were also unlucky. Three of those line drives find holes on another day, and then what are we talking about?

It’s definitely a rough patch, 2-8 in their last 10, but that happens. The encouraging thing, if you need, is that the rotation bounced back which is probably the most important thing going forward. Let’s run it through:

The Two Obs

-It seems a bit silly to complain about the bullpen and its handling on a night when the Cubs scored one run, but that’s Friday for you. Miles Mikolas still has that in the bag on occasion, even if this year has been a struggle for him. But I don’t know why anyone would be in a hurry to get to Dillon Maples when there’s already a guy on base, and I’m a Maples guy and want him to be given every chance and more to finally nail down a spot (he probably won’t ever but I’m a hopeful sort). Mike Montgomery isn’t a situational lefty, and yet because he’s the only one out there besides Ryan (who blows but more on that in a sec) he keeps being used as one. I would trust Monty to get through Wong and Bader, though to be fair to Maples he did strike out Bader and didn’t get a call. But now the bases are loaded and you have to do something dumb and Cishek doesn’t really get strikeouts that much and here we are.

-Going over the woes of the pen is probably useless at this point. Everyone knows and there’s little that can be done via trade for another couple weeks at least. Even a Kimbrel Hail Mary doesn’t do anything until July. But it’s just laughable how the Cubs boasted about the amount of arms they would have between here and Iowa and almost none of them are major league pitchers. Ryan isn’t. Brach probably isn’t anymore. Edwards might not be on his bad days. Maples hasn’t proven it. Neither is Webster, Cedeno, or Collins.

-Saturday’s game goes haywire because of the weather delay. It was about how far Chatwood could go, which wasn’t far, but he’s actually been effective this year and is probably allowed a wonky one. There’s just nothing to be done after him, and Strop’s return isn’t a cure-all.

-Rough weekend for my guy Schwarber. He can’t strike out with the bases loaded on Saturday and it looks like the things are snowballing on him again. He remains simply awful with anyone on base, which actually backs up the logic of leading him off, but you wonder how much longer the Cubs can wait on him. It’s been two and a half seasons for him, and the over-glow of a few singles in the World Series can’t count for anything. I still think he has a big boom within him, but I would also say he’s got a month or six weeks to show it, otherwise the Cubs might want to monitor how the Reds handle their Dietrich-Gennett jam at second (probably by just sitting Winker or Puig and playing both and not sending either here, honestly).

-How does a team in the majors not know how to run a rundown or pickoff? The Cubs always make at least too many throws or outright fuck it up more than any team in the league. Only cost them the game today.

-For all the gifts his arm provide, Contreras has had a bad defensive year. He’s been a subpar framer for a few years now, has been lazy blocking balls far too often, and today’s error was another the Cubs can’t have. That doesn’t mean he should be benched or anything, it’s just something we’re going to live with. Teams are rarely going to run on him or even stray off bases that much, so the arm which made up for his defensive deficiencies elsewhere doesn’t even come out of the holster that often.

Onwards…

Baseball

Series Preview – Cubs vs. Cardinals: They’re Going To Be Upset About A Fake Talk Show

By Sam Fels 1241 0

vs.

RECORDS: Cubs 31-23   Cardinals 27-28

GAMETIMES: Friday 7:15, Saturday 6:15, Sunday 1:15

TV: NBCSN Friday, Fox Saturday, WGN Sunday

DON’T EVEN BOTHER: Viva El Birdos

PROBABLE PITCHERS

Yu Darvish vs. Miles Mikolas

Jose Quintana vs. Jack Flaherty

Cole Hamels vs. Adam Wainwright

PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

Kyle Schwarber – LF

Kris Bryant – 3B

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Javier Baez – SS

Victor Caratini – C

Albert Almora Jr. – CF

Jason Heyward – RF

David Bote – 2B

PROBABLE CARDINALS LINEUP

Dexter Fowler – RF

Paul Goldschmidt – 1B

Paul DeJong – SS

Marcell Ozuna – LF

Matt Carpenter – 3B

Yadier Molina – C

Kolten Wong – 2B

Harrison Bader – CF

 

The Auld Rivals move down I-55 tonight and this weekend, where the Cubs and Cards will clash for the for the first time in front of the illiterate and toothless in West East St. Louis. Perhaps for the first time ever, most everyone will be paying attention to the Blues instead, at least tomorrow night. If you’re making the trip…what’s wrong with you?

The Cardinals haven’t burst out of the gates with the Cubs and Brewers, and currently are 4.5 games back and under .500. They can’t seem to get everything firing at the same time. The offense has had its moments, but currently Paul DeJong, Dexter Fowler, and Kolten Wong have been trying to shove the bat up their nose. On the flip side, Matt Carpenter is doing that thing again where he comes close to sucking you into the idea that he’s finished at the beginning of the season, and now is going nuclear (he’s slugging nearly .600 the past two weeks). Paul Goldschmidt has been good, but maybe not quite the MVP-candidate the Cards hoped they were getting this winter. Harrison Bader has also been molten the past couple of weeks, but overall has been defense-first. The offense has potential to really carry this team through the summer, but hasn’t yet.

It may have to, as we went over some of the rotation’s problems in the spotlight. The two kids have hit their speed-bumps, and at some point this goddamn team is going to have to admit the Wainwright is dunzo and it’s never going to happen for Michael Wacha. I mean, it’s fine with me if they keep sending Wacha out there to hang a curve or groove a fastball at the worst possible time, but you’d think that an organization that is still convinced it’s miles ahead of the curve would crack the code on two-fifths of their rotation turning odd colors in the sun.

The pen has gotten yeoman’s work out of John Gant and John Brebbia. You’ll hear all about the 102 MPH that Jordan Hicks throws, which always seems to ignore the fact he’s not that good. He walks too many guys, and as hard as that fastball is it’s string-straight and he doesn’t seem to have another pitch so hitters do get to it. Andrew Miller is joining Wainwright in the breeding farm these days, carrying a FIP near 6.00 as he also doesn’t seem to have any idea where the ball is going. Always a genius move to sign and aging reliever who has been worked like a mule the past four years to a multi-year deal, don’t you think? Let’s say the Cards are a touch short in the pen, but not like, Cubs-short.

For the Cubs, they’ll hopefully welcome Pedro Strop back sometime this weekend, and seeing as how everyone else in the pen is stepping on their tongue that will be greatly welcomed. Kris Bryant can look forward to being booed the whole weekend because he happened to speak a very unthreatening truth on a fake fucking talk show that was essentially a platform for aspiring bullhorn Ryan Dempster to get a show on Marquee. Not even joking, that’s what it was. But any slight is taken an a declaration of war down there, and don’t be shocked if Yadier just tackles Bryant in the batter’s box to defend the honor of his chosen hovel. This will be point #1 on his Hall resume according to St. Louis media and fans after the game, you watch.

It’s been a bit of a rough patch. The Cubs are 4-6 over their last 10, the pen is beaten down and dusted, and the rotation needs to reclaim its standing this weekend. They got a primer stopper effort from The Cerebral Assassin on Wednesday. Hopefully the rest pick up the baton. They swept these assholes last time. Let’s have that again.