Baseball

Giants Spotlight: The Bum’s Rush

By Sam Fels 1218 0

There will be no bigger name on the move in the next week or so than Madison Bumgarner. That’s what happens when you get tabbed a playoff hero, seen as someone who can still swing a playoff series (rightly or wrongly, and mostly wrongly these days), and also keep your name in the headlines by being a miserable son of a bitch. Bumgarner checks all those boxes.

The first thing to clear up about Madison Bumgarner is he’s not THAT good. Through most of his career he’s been a low-level #1 or a high-end #2, which was fine when the Giants had Lincecum and Cain in front of him and worked out well when he did pitch like a celestial being for a few weeks in 2014. Since he came into the league, he ranks 13th in WAR, which is good but is also right on par with Gio Gonzalez and Anibal Sanchez and yes, Jose Quintanta (who has made 40 less starts than Bumgarner in that time). He’s not a Sale or Scherzer or deGrom or anything like that, though sometimes it feels like he’s billed as that because of 2014.

So what would any prospective team be getting from this Madison Bumgarner? One, it’s a healthy one finally, as MadBum only threw 241 innings the previous two seasons dealing shoulder problems caused and not caused falling off his dirtbike looking for various woodland creatures to cook over an open fire for dinner that week. Bumgarner has already thrown 125 innings this year, which pretty much matches last year’s total.

And those innings have been much more effective. He’s striking out far more hitters (9.10 per 9 vs. 7.57) and walking less (1.86 BB/9 vs. 2.98). His ERA is strangely worse but his FIP is much better. Also strange for a pitcher of Bumgarner’s age is that he’s gained some life on his fastball this year, averaging over 92 MPH on it for the first time in four seasons. That’s probably something to do with health. His curve is also getting more sweep, picking up horizontal movement without losing its tilt. It makes it more slurve-y, which isn’t ideal, and maybe why Bumgarner is using it far less than he did last year.

There are some warning signs with Bumgarner as well. One, his ground-balls are down measurably and the lowest rate of his career. Again, some of this is just because this is happening to most everyone, but a drop of five percent is more than one that can be dismissed as a sign of the times. And it’s been replaced mostly by line-drives, which is not good either. Bumgarner’s hard-contact rate is the highest of his career by a distance, and if he were to move to a park that didn’t require a bazooka to get a ball out of, that could turn into a real problem fast.

Recent outings only muddle the picture more. On the surface, Bumgarner has only given up three earned runs in his last four starts, But two of those comprised only seven innings combined, as rain shortened one start to two innings. The walks were non-existent, but there’s been a ton of loud contact in July (53%). Bumgarner has also lost a full MPH off his fastball in the month, which wouldn’t get anyone putting on their red shoes to dance the blues in excitement either.

The next question is what is Bumgarner worth. His contract being up after the season certainly lowers his value, and this is not Verlander or someone like that changing teams midstream. The Giants are probably dreaming about a package similar to Chris Archer netted the Rays last year, as Bumgarner is better than that. But it’s hard to find a teams as stupid as the Pirates again, and Archer wasn’t a free agent to be. That was two prime prospects, and any kind of bidding war probably inches the Giants toward that. What they may fear is a return that Cole Hamels provided the Rangers, which was a journeyman major leaguer in Eddie Butler, and a couple of lower-level lottery tickets that are nowhere near the majors. Bumgarner is younger and not struggling as Hamels was at the time, so the answer is probably somewhere in the middle.

Then again, it becomes a question of do the Giants move him at all. Logic tells you there’s no choice to be made here, and their window has shut and whatever they feel they might “owe” mainstays like Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, and Brandon Crawford are just going to have to wait a few years while they try and redo the supporting cast beneath them. And the way Crawford is playing these days, it probably doesn’t matter anyway. Still, the Giants are one of the hottest teams in baseball, and are somehow only 2.5 games out of the wildcard. Of course, if you have to go nuclear just to get to .500 and be within touching distance of a coin-flip game with four teams to leap still, that’s pretty much every answer you need on what you should do.

Bumgarner’s trade isn’t going to change the fortunes of the Giants as heavily as they might want. But it would certainly signal a change in direction for good, and put an official bow on their run. Even though those things are hard to quantify and shouldn’t matter, they make this kind of move hard to deal with for everyone. But nothing lasts forever, except the three flags in the outfield at Oracle.

Baseball

It’s Silly Season – Let’s Run Through Some Cubs Trade Targets

By Sam Fels 1332 0

With there being only one trade deadline this season, and for some reason MLB not moving it back to between where the two used to be, there’s some added zeal to July 31st this time around. Teams not only have to scramble to plug holes and needs, but have to plan for any eventuality that could happen in the next two months. The Cubs acquisition of Martin Maldonado is something of an example of this, where they didn’t want to have to deal with an extended Taylor Davis Experience should something happen to Willson Contreras or Victor Caratini (and it kind of did to the former, though very lightly it seems). Even if you don’t have a need somewhere but need cover, teams are going to be chasing that depth that in the past would have been a nothing waiver-wire pickup on August 29th.

Whatever this Cubs season has been, and it’s been a lot of things, they’re still in first place by multiple games and clearly have to have the chase for the postseason their minds. The names are already out there, so let’s run them through.

Nick Castellanos – This one seemed obvious a while ago, made the mainstream papers over the last few days, so you know there’s some fire to go with this smoke. And unlike some other targets, Castellanos is something of a sure thing. You know what you’re getting, which isn’t a miracle worker or a doomsday device but a pretty solid, above-average hitter. Castellanos was much better last year, but the two years previous had wRC+ of 119 and 112 and is at 115 this year, so it’s fair to assume that’s probably what he is. Castellanos has a .361 BABIP last year, some 30 points over his career average, and this year he’s much more in line with his career number. He’s not making as much hard contact this year as he has in the past, but he is hitting more fly balls, which could play better in Wrigley than it does in the vast environs of Comerica Park…at least until the winds shift in September. It can be hardly argued that Castellanos for sure wouldn’t provide a hell of a lot more than Almora, whom you’d guess he would be replacing in the lineup. Almora needs the Hubble just to see average offensive numbers.

The worry with Castellanos, if it even rises to that level, is defense. Mainly in that he can’t play it. Right field in Wrigley we know to be an adventure, and he has trouble with non-adventurous spaces. Heyward just isn’t that good in center, so you’d be taking your outfield defense from decent to borderline bad. There’s a lot of people who don’t seem to care about this, or just dismiss it as being able to put Almora in center in the late innings, as if for some reason teams weren’t allowed to hit balls to the outfield in the 4th inning?

People who do take this seriously live in the Cubs’ front office, however. It’s important to remember that the Cubs starting staff doesn’t really have a big strikeout guy other than Darvish. That said, the Cubs have the highest ground-ball rate in baseball from their pitchers, and the second-lowest fly-ball rate (no, I’m not sure how either but that’s the world we live in), so if there’s any team that can get away with a partial circus clown outfield, it’s the Cubs.

So the question is does the added offense offset your drop in defense? I would say it does, but not as much as some would think, but thanks to the Cubs’ pitching staff and their ways, it’s not as big of a concern as it is for others.

Danny Santana – This is a name that’s popped up in the past couple days due to the full-body dry-heave the Rangers have performed over the past week to drop from playoff contention. As if anyone was really buying them anyway. And this one is a hard no from me. Santana hadn’t been a plus-player in any fashion since his debut with the Twins five seasons ago, and there’s an awful lot of mirrors and smoke with this one. Santana’s BABIP is .399, and I shouldn’t have to say more than that. Yeah, he’s hitting the ball considerably harder than he ever has, so are a lot of people, and he plays several positions. But this is a balloon that could pop at any moment, and then you’re left with another Descalso when one is too many.

Eric Sogard – The chance to just yell, “NERD POWER!” every game makes it worth it for me, but I would hope the Cubs have slightly more qualifications at which they’re looking. But I’m sure Theo and Jed also would look forward to yelling, “NERD POWER!”  He can, in a break glass in case of kind of way, get you out of a game or two in the corner outfield spots or at short for how many offdays they project Javy would need (increasingly looking like none). But you’d do this to shore up your second base spot, which needs it. Sogard himself is having something of an anomalous offensive season, as we’re only a year out from him putting up a 14 wRC+ in 55 games with the Brewers last year. His career-mark is 82. Sogard’s .491 slugging this year has come from literally nowhere, with a career number of .340. And at 33, this is another balloon that could pop at anytime. He’s not that effective defensively, so I’m not convinced this is any better than just riding the Robel miracle and see where that goes.

Billy Hamilton – I’ve seen this suggested a few places, as something of an Almora replacement after he’d dealt to the late-inning glove and speed guy. Or to just stop him from ever beating up on Jon Lester again. He would cost nothing, and he is both of those things mentioned, but the late-inning defensive replacement leaves me a touch cold when you still have seven or eight innings to get through before that. Let’s think harder.

Whit Merrifield – Solves everything, way expensive trade-wise, and almost certainly isn’t happening, especially as the Royals are supposedly asking for three major league-ready players in return and I’m not convinced the Cubs even have that. And the Royals probably want to do better than Ian Happ, whose hot two weeks probably haven’t raised his value as much as Cubs fans would like to think. And even if they did you’d have to add two more names to that.

So those are some bats being mentioned, and now that I’ve done this the Cubs will assuredly trade for someone not on this list. That’s just how these things go.

Baseball

Series Recap – Cubs Take Two Of Three From Padres: That’ll Do, Pig

By Sam Fels 1196 0

Game 1 Box Score: Cubs 6, Padres 5

Game 2 Box Score: Cubs 6, Padres 5

Game 3 Box Score: Padres 5, Cubs 1

Huh. The Padres scored five runs in every game. Only won one. That’s weird, right? Anywho, the temptation is to bitch that the Cubs didn’t get the last one of the homestand to make it a glittering 8-1. But 7-2 is way beyond acceptable, Morejon and Quantrill were absolutely dealing today, and sometimes you’re just not getting it. Considering the Cubs came out on the right side of a couple one-run decisions in the first two games, you’re probably due for a clunker. What’s really important is what comes on this roadie, as it’s one of the hottest teams in baseball followed by your direct competitors. We’ll take 7-2 on that too, thanks.

Let’s clean it up.

The Two Obs

-Still, today was frustrating because once again, the back half of the bullpen cannot keep the Cubs within a run. They probably weren’t going to score off Yates today anyway, but you’d at least take your chance. The impulse to lambast Maddon for bringing in Carl Edwards Jr. in a high-leverage situation right in the middle of it is understandable, but there really wasn’t anyone else. Cishek and Kintzler had to be down for the day. Strop most likely. Kimbrel would never be used there. Brach and Ryan had already gone. Your only other choice is Chatwood, and he’s no sure thing either.

And the time for babying Edwards is over. Either he’s a guy who can handle this or he’s not and we can all move on with our lives. Judging by the fact that his fastball was barely touching 92 today, I know which way I’m leaning.

-While on the pen, Strop gave up another lead on this third best pitch, a two-seam fastball that doesn’t do anything. Sometimes I wonder if two-seam is just the label they’re putting on a splitter that doesn’t do shit, but either way Strop needs to lose this pitch. Hitters have been losing it for him enough. His four-seam isn’t overpowering but he at least spots it well, and he should be going down with either that or his slider. He doesn’t need a starter’s repertoire.

-Considering the conditions, the work the Cubs got out of Lester and Quintana is good stuff. They won’t go down as quality starts, but they were considering the environment.

-How nice was it to watch the other team kick the ball around to lose a game on Friday?

-I’m not sure I’ve ever seen the wind turn around like that instantly as it did yesterday.

-Looks like I motherfucked Anthony Rizzo just right. You’ll notice his grand slam came to left field, so in that sense, I’m a genius.

-It’s really starting to feel like we’re seeing the last of Albert Almora Jr. around here. He’s completely lost at the plate, to the point where even his plus-defense doesn’t cancel it out. We’ve had more than enough ABs in his career to conclude he’s just not going to be much of a hitter. Joe Sheehan can wail about his playing time all he likes, but a .666 OPS tells you everything.

-One thing I’ve noticed Maldonado does, and Caratini for the most part too, that Contreras doesn’t, is that he doesn’t drop his glove when setting up and always presents the target. Pitchers must love that, and should be an easy correction for Willson to make.

-Give the Padres two years and a clean bill of the health and they might muddle up this Dodgers nightmare the NL West has lived through.

Onwards…

Baseball

Series Recap – Sox Take 2 of 3 From Rays: The Long Road Home

By Andy Jonathan 1085 0

Game 1: White Sox 9 – Rays 2

Game 2: White Sox 2 – Rays 1 (11 Innings)

Game 3: White Sox 2 – Rays 4

 

Well that’s a bit more like it.  Taking two outta three from a team in the playoff chase like the Tampa Bay Rays is kind of what I was hoping for in Oakland.  Alas that was not to be (or the next 4 in Kansas City, but I digress), but the team made up for it here.  The most exciting thing about this series was the starting pitching for the Sox, as Reynaldo Lopez has now strung together 3 pretty darn good starts in a row.  On top of that we saw Lucas Giolito return to form, mowing down Rays like like the propeller of a drunken Floridian’s speedboat off the Tampa coast.  Oh yeah, James McCann is pretty clutch too.

BULLET CLUB TIME

 

Numbers Don’t Lie

 

-All three Sox starters this weekend went at least 5 innings.  This was a welcome sight, because after the 7 game losing streak coming out of the All Star break the bullpen was reaching critical mass.  Especially with Kelvin “Everything Hurts” Herrera heading back to the IL with an oblique strain.  Speaking of the bullpen, it was aces this series.  It allowed no runs, 2 hits and 3 walks in 9.1 innings to a Rays team that isn’t without pop in it’s lineup.  Jace Fry and Josh Osich in particular stood out.  This is a good thing, and I would like more of it please.

-James McCann went 2 for 14 this weekend and saw his average dip below .300 for the first time in quite awhile.  That didn’t matter so much, however, thanks to his clutch ass dinger in the top of the 9th in game two, with two people out.  Even if regression is here (I think it probably is), I’ll take a catcher who hits .275 and has power in the clutch any day of the week.

-Watching Jose Rondon hack his way to an eye-bleedingly bad .190 average and play sub par defense is not making for good television viewing.  Please, please, please let Tim Anderson’s evaluation go well tomorrow.  My retinas can’t take much more.

-Especially when Rondon is combined into a 1-2 punch of wretchedness with Wellington Castillo.  Ole Big Beef is back below the Mendoza line after Sunday’s 0 for 4 display, putting on a clinic of What Not To Do with runners on base.  The Sox continue their mystifying tradition of having complete stiffs playing the DH position, and it’s getting to the point where I hope the team has a road trip to NL parks soon so I can watch Giolio and Lopez out-slug Wellington by .100 points of OPS.

-Dylan Cease got himself into trouble with walks today, having issues controlling his fastball again.  The stuff is clearly there, it’s just going to take time for him to get comfortable on the bump up here in the bigs.

-Nick Madrigal hit his first home run in AA the other night, checking another box in the pages long list of them that only Rick Hahn knows what it contains.  Luis Robert continues to rake in AAA, playing in that broom closet of a park with a ball that has an enriched uranium core.  I wonder if one of the boxes on Rick’s list is X amount of dollars of property damage before Robert is called up to the main club, because he’s really not slowing down.

-Next up is the Miami Marlins of Cuba, who wander into town tomorrow night.  They’re ready to showcase their wares to the dozens of GM’s lining up to be the next person to fleece Derek Jeter by convincing him that this bag of magic beans is totally worth Caleb Smith and Jordan Yamamoto.  Honestly you’re kind of doing him a favor, as these beans are going to be top 10 in Baseball America’s next prospect list.  Seriously, would I lie to you?  You’re a hall of famer, Derek!  If anything, YOU’RE hoodwinking ME.  Why sure, I guess I’ll take Brian Anderson too.  He’s probably a career AAA guy anyways.  You owe me.

 

 

 

 

Baseball

Series Preview – White Sox vs. Rays: The Road Goes On Forever And The Party Never Ends

By Sam Fels 1205 0

vs.

RECORDS: White Sox 42-51   Rays 56-43

GAMETIMES: 6:10 Friday, 5:10 Saturday, 12:10 Sunday

TV: NBCSN Friday and Sunday, WGN Saturday

LEFT TURN SIGNAL ON: DRays Bay

PITCHING MATCHUPS

Reynaldo Lopez vs. Brendan McKay

Lucas Giolito  vs. TBA

Dylan Cease vs. TBA

PROBABLE WHITE SOX LINEUP

Leury Garcia – RF

Yoan Moncada – 3B

Jose Abreu – 1b

James McCann – DH

Welington Castillo – C

Jose Rondon – SS

Jon Jay – LF

Yolmer Sanchez – 2B

Adam Engel – CF

PROBABLE RAYS LINEUP

Austin Meadows – RF

Tommy Pham – LF

Ji-Man Choi – DH

Nate Lowe – 1B

Yandy Diaz – 3B

Kevin Kiermaier – CF

Travis d’Arnaud – C

Joey Wendle – SS

Michael Brosseau – 2B

 

The White Sox will take their traveling carnival with defective rides down to the airplane hangar of Tropicana this weekend, for three games with the wildcard chasing Rays. The Rays will think this is the perfect tonic after losing three of four to the Yankees in the Bronx, which pretty much ended their hopes of any division crown. Especially with Eloy laid up. Even still, eight games back with 63 to go would be quite the trick.

The Rays haven’t gotten here through offense, or at least not sheer offense. It’s been timely, but mostly middling in every category you’d look at in the AL. Pham, Lowe, Meadows, and Diaz have been more than serviceable, though all have gone cold of late. They can’t slug with the Yankees, which is part of the reason they went from ahead early to watching the pinstripes disappear over the horizon of late.

It’s on the mound where the Rays stand out, leading the AL in ERA and FIP as a team among their starters. Which is kind of weird, as they only boast about three starters but have mastered the idea of the opener. Tyler Glasnow has been on the shelf and might not return this year. Ian Snell and Charlie Morton have been great, though the Sox might not see either this weekend. But aside from that, Ryan Stanek usually gets the opening duty. He’s made 27 starts but only thrown 43 innings. Yonny Chirinos sometimes follows him or starts himself. Brendan McKay will be a normal starter tonight, but beyond that the Rays haven’t said what they’re going to do. Chirinos and Morton started yesterday in New York so they’re definitely out. Snell looks odds on to take Sunday’s start.

As you’ve probably guessed, the Rays have a host of options out of the pen that you’ve never heard of but all work, because that’s just how they do down there. Emilio Pagan and Diego Castillo are splitting the closing duties of late, but Kittredge and Poche can get big outs too.

For the Sox, Adam Engel has returned to dutifully man center field and go up to the plate with his pool noodle bat. They’ll throw what are probably their two best guns in Giolito and Cease, with Lopez trying to find it again tonight. It’s been a road trip from hell for them, and playing in the quite expanse of The Trop will probably seem more like purgatory. There’s a long homestand waiting after this one, but the Rays will need some get-back too so if the Sox are already thinking about the plane home, they may find this one goes to 10.

Baseball

Rays Spotlight: Charlie Morton Has Got The Bends

By Sam Fels 1139 0

So we know the Astros cheat. Every pitcher goes there, suddenly is getting more spin on every breaking pitch and their velocity can then only be measured by NASA (lucky it’s based in Houston) and they win 105 games. And then Justin Verlander complains about something. What we weren’t sure of is if pitchers could continue to carry whatever they were infected with in Houston elsewhere when they move along.

According to Charlie Morton, they sure can.

Morton arrived in Houston after seven serviceable years in Pittsburgh and one injury shortened one in Philadelphia, but nothing that would cause anyone to write any haikus about him. Then Morton showed up to Texas after making only those fours tarts for the Phillies due to a torn hamstring. And suddenly his fastball had more pop. Morton hadn’t averaged more than 92 MPH on his fastball before. As an Astro, suddenly is it was 95 MPH (though he did flash that in Philly for those four starts, to be fair). The only change one can spot is that his horizontal release point got farther from his body, or more across it, so you could argue he was getting more extension.

Either way, the Astros encouraged Morton to start using that fastball more instead of a sinker, which he did. They also got him using his best pitch, the curve, more often as well, nearly 30%.

Well the Rays are a pretty forward-thinking organization as well, and they figured if the curve is Morton’s best pitch, there shouldn’t be a limit on how much he throws is. They have him throwing it nearly 40% of the time. And it’s no wonder, as the past two years Morton has discovered two more inches of sweep or horizontal break to it than he ever had, which means it’s really hard to make contact on. He’s gotten over 40% whiffs per swing on it the past three years, so why not throw the hell out of it?

So he shows up in Houston, and suddenly he’s throwing harder and getting more break on the curve. Got ya. It’s ok though, whatever works.

Morton has added a wrinkle this year, using a slider, which is just a sped up version of his curve. But it’s generating a 36% whiff-rate as well, so now he’s got three weapons. He hadn’t ever thrown a slider before this season.

All of it has led Morton to be one of the AL’s most dominating starters this year, with his first sub-3.00 ERA and FIP and worth 3.6 fWAR so far. Only Gerrit Cole and Lance Lynn have been better than Morton so far this year. Which makes the two-year, $30M total deal he got one of the best values in MLB. Which is kind of the Rays thing, of course.

Morton’s brilliance has helped the Rays offset the loss of Tyler Glasnow, who might not make it back this year, to remain the leader in the wild card race in the AL. They’re probably not going to catch the Yankees after getting domed in a doubleheader yesterday, but considering the division they play in getting in the playoffs at all is something of a miracle.

Maybe big ticket items aren’t di rigeur anymore, but there is value on the free agency market to be found. Especially if it’s already been injected by Astro syrum.

 

Baseball

Series Preview – Padres vs. Cubs: Heat Death

By Sam Fels 1380 0

vs.

RECORDS: Padres 46-50   Cubs 52-44

GAMETIMES: Friday-Sunday 1:20

TV: NBCSN Friday, ABC 7 Saturday, WGN Sunday

FISH TACO ENTHUSIASTS: Gaslamp Ball

PITCHING MATCHUPS

Eric Lauer vs. Jon Lester

Joey Lucchesi vs. Jose Quintana

Cal Quantrill vs. Kyle Hendricks

PROBABLE PADRES LINEUP

Fernando Tatis Jr. – SS

Eric Hosmer – 1B

Manny Machado – 3B

Hunter Renfroe – LF

Franmil Reyes – RF

Franciso Meija – C

Ian Kinsler – 2B

Manuel Margot – CF

PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

Albert Almora Jr. – CF

Javier Baez – SS

Kris Bryant – LF

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Addison Russell – 2B

Jason Heyward – RF

David Bote – 3B

Martin Maldonado – C

 

The main story of this series probably won’t have to do much with either team, but the conditions they’ll spend the first two games in. Jon Lester might end up looking like the senator from the first X-Men movie by the 4th inning today. It is going to be hot, and gross, and sticky, and all other bad words to describe a 98-degree day with a fair amount of humidity. Basically, St. Louis.

But hey, that’s baseball, that’s summer in Chicago sometimes, and the Cubs have work to do. And while the Padres are poised to be the next big thing, next means it’s not here yet and they’ve only won four of their last 13 games. They’re coming off losing a series to the Marlins and got swept by the Braves out of the break before that, and the Cubs catch them at the end of a long road trip. So yeah, very few excuses here.

Overall, it’s not a very good offense, ranking bottom-five in runs, wOBA, and wRC+ as a team, But that doesn’t mean there aren’t some danger spots, mostly at the top. Fernando Tatis Jr., the player that makes all Sox fans hang their head in shame, missed a third of the season through injury but has been everything they could have hoped for when present. He strikes out a ton, but walks slightly more than average and hits for a ton of power for a shortstop. Considering he’s 20, getting upset about the Ks would be the height of pettiness. Manny Machado you know about, and Hunter Renfroe has hit some annoying homers against the Cubs already. Franmil Reyes is the rest of the pop with 20 homers. Manuel Margot has been hot of late, slugging over .800 the past two weeks.

The Cubs catch a break in missing Chris Paddack, probably the best rookie starter in the NL right now. Eric Lauer and Joey Lucchesi have been functional without being eye-popping, but Quantrill has had his struggles, though he did shut out the Braves last out over six innings. Lauer comes in on a roll as well, giving up three runs over his last three starts, though one was just four innings.

The Padres always seem to find a closer, and that’s true once again with Kirby Yates. He’s been about the only bright spot in the pen though, with a host of characters playing the role of gasoline this season. The Pads pen has the lowest walk-rate of any pen in the National League, though, so they don’t just give it to you. But other than Yates, only Craig Stammen has had sustained success and he’s had his problems lately.

For the Cubs, they’ll get Carl Edward Jr. back this weekend, at the expense of Randy Rosario so you know I’m delighted. Both the Brewers and Cardinals won last night, so the cushion is minuscule. It’s going to suck out there, but they won’t care about that when the final standings are tabulated in September. After this it’s now a pretty rough looking road trip with the Giants the hottest team in baseball at the moment before trips to both Hops-villes, USA. Everyone else, stay hydrated.

Baseball

Padres Spotlight: AJ Preller, The Hero Before His Time?

By Sam Fels 1113 0

Maybe if AJ Preller had just waited and not gone mad scientist in the ’14-’15 winter, he would have been thought of as something like a hero in the past winter or two. He would have been just about the only GM “going for it.” He would be the only GM who would have seemingly known what free agency and the winter months are for. Making people talk about your team. Getting them excited. Improving it.

Sadly, Preller’s Brewster’s Millions winter came in 2015, before that time in baseball’s offseason became nuclear and life was not allowed to grow in any way. Still, Preller’s pivot has been borderline-stunning, and one wonders how many other GMs would get the chance to reverse course as quickly and forcefully. Then again, when the pivot means saving and shedding money, owners tend to get a little patient.

Instead, in the offseason leading to 2015, Preller became something of a laughingstock. Let’s take you back. The Padres hired Preller at the end of the 2014 season, their fourth-straight losing one after nearly pipping the Giants for the NL West in 2010, ceding the lead in the last weekend of the season (and possibly saving us from the most mystifying dynasty of our time). Clearly, the Padres didn’t like the way things were going, as they licensed Preller to go all Jackson Pollock with their roster. (Maybe that Cashner-for-Rizzo deal played a part?)

So here’s what Preller did, and this list will seem completely alien after the past couple offseasons. He traded for Derek Norris, at the time one of the better hitting catchers around. He traded four players for Justin Upton, who was in the last year of his deal. He took Matt Kemp‘s salary off the Dodgers’ hands, though the whole Grandal-for-Norris swap behind the plate didn’t look good at the time and worse now. He swung a three-team trade to bring Wil Myers from Tampa, though it cost them Trea Turner and Myers didn’t especially have a position. He signed James Shields, who at the time was one of the biggest pitching free agents out there (which probably helped contribute to teams very calm trigger fingers when it comes to free agent pitching). And then right at the dawn of the season, perhaps the biggest move he made, was to bring in Craig Kimbrel from Atlanta.

The sheer volume of moves is startling through the lenses of what we’ve become accustomed to, and all of them were aimed at the top of the roster. It becomes even more stunning when you realize that almost none of them worked. Norris never hit, Kemp was in the middle of his decline everywhere outside LA, Kimbrel was a hood ornament on a car without a suspension, Shields gave up 33 homers before the ball became a Top Flite and with half his starts being protected by the marine layer. Myers and Upton hit for sure, though Myers was hurt for two-thirds of the season and a danger to himself in the outfield.

The Padres collected 74 wins, all the experts tut-tutted, and Preller had to reverse course in a hurry. Upton left via free agency. Kemp was traded the next season for nothing. Norris was traded after that season. But in the real coup, Shields was moved in the middle of 2016 to the White Sox, in midst of their own inexplicable and deluded drive for a playoff spot, and got Fernando Tatis Jr. out of it. Kimbrel was dealt for four prospects, one of which is Logan Allen who remains on the precipice.

At least it was quick work. While the Padres didn’t net much in all of their shedding of Preller’s ’15 madness other than Tatis, it only took Preller three seasons to build one of the more exciting, young teams around. Tatis is already wowing people, and Preller was able to convince Manny Machado that things will turn around soon. Franmil Reyes wasn’t his signing, but he developed in Preller’s system. He was able to steal Chris Paddack out of Miami, and he might be the best rookie pitcher around. And over the next two to three seasons, the Padres are poised to keep rolling out players from their system as they are considered one of the best pipelines in baseball right now. The Pads are considered to have 10 of the 100 top-rated prospects in baseball, though two of those are Tatis Jr. and Paddack.

Some were taken before Preller, of course, like Reyes. But he was allowed to admit a mistake, turn around, and now has the Padres poised for long-term success instead of the lightning in the bottle kind he chased four years ago. Quite the turn, no?

 

Baseball

Series Wrap – White Sox Swept By Royals: All Seven And We’ll Watch Them Fall

By Sam Fels 1222 0

Game 1 Box Score: Royals 5, White Sox 2

Game 2 Box Score: Royals 11, White Sox 0

Game 3 Box Score: Royals 7, White Sox 5

Game 4 Box Score: Royals 6, White Sox 5

It’s one thing to get swept by the Athletics in their usual, second half surge (they made a movie about that kind of thing, remember). It’s another to get pumped by the bottom-feeding Royals for four. And it appears the players in the clubhouse are getting a touch restless, though hardly anywhere near a mutiny. The Sox never had much depth, and being relieved of Tim Anderson and then Eloy Jimenez for all but one game this series didn’t help. The depths of the rebuild are apparent now, after some exciting moments in the first half.

Let’s get through it:

-It probably deserves its own post down the line, but some of Giolito’s stuff has lost just a touch of shine. He put up a quality start, one should against the Royals, but of late his change doesn’t have as much fade or sink away from lefties as it did earlier in the year. It’s only a fraction, but that can make the difference between a whiff and contact, and as we know anything can happen on contact. 14 strikeouts in three starts is not embarrassing, but it’s a noticeable drop from the eight per start he had been averaging through May and June.

-Who knows what’s going on with Eloy, as I can’t say I’ve heard of a bruised nerve before, especially from a position player. Hopefully it’s just a couple weeks, as the Sox can’t keep losing guys who need MLB ABs for development. One fears Eloy might be headed for the DH slot before he turns 25, though.

-Much improvement from Dylan Cease, at least control-wise. He got eight ground-outs of the 18 outs he got, and seven more via strikeout. He wasn’t helped much by his defense clearly, and didn’t get any righteous BABIP Kung Fu Treachery. Only thre extra-base hits. His slider was the main whiff weapon opposed to his change in his debut. Baby steps to the elevator.

-Getting it upside the head from Glenn Sparkman, no matter who is in the lineup, isn’t really acceptable on any level.

-If you’ve had enough of Ivan Nova pitching against anyone but the Cubs, it would be very understandable. Also teams are slugging over .700 on Nova when they see him for a third time, so might be best to avoid that whenever possible, which is always.

-When you’re on your 10th starter of the season, your expectations can’t be all that high. Ross Detwiler probably met them. At some point you’re just too deep into the reserve.

–“We need them. We’re missing them. But we need to deal with what we have here. Until the organization gives us a chance to bring the people up that can help us here.”

I don’t know if Jose Abreu is calling for Luis Robert to be promoted, but I certainly don’t know that he’s not either. You sort of wonder how long current major leaguers were just going to play along with service time manipulation, and you could read this if you want as Abreu starting to warm up to the idea of not. These guys know what Robert is doing in the minors. They know they’ve been eating it in the majors. Abreu has never played a game that really matters with the White Sox. He would be forgiven if he’s just a touch tired of it. He’s also got some leverage with his upcoming free agency, though it’s impossible to imagine the Sox just letting him walk.

But Abreu won’t be the last and it won’t just be the White Sox that have players speaking out about the mechanizations of their front offices. Everyone knows the drill now, and the next time a team tries to keep the next Robert or Bryant or Jimenez down just to delay a clock, it will not be shocking when players in that clubhouse start calling bullshit in the press and putting more pressure on GMs. Here for all of it, really.

 

 

Baseball

Did Monday’s Trade Have Anything To Do With Anthony Rizzo?

By Sam Fels 4981 0

Cubs fans have a tendency to go a bit looney, as you well know. So Monday’s trade started a bunch of conspiracy theories about how Martin Maldonado would allow Victor Caratini to be used as part of a bigger deadline trade, or that Willson Contreras would find himself more in the outfield to boost the offense (and ruin the defense), or whatever else. So let’s stretch it out to ridiculous proportions, because I haven’t been able to shake the thought. Are the Cubs planning for a possible IL stay for Anthony Rizzo?

The reason I ask and think this is clearly Rizzo hasn’t been himself lately. He hasn’t homered since June 15th. He slugged .394 in June. So the worry was that something was wrong. When Rizzo’s power goes away that badly for that long, you almost have to assume it’s something physical.

This line of thought is rendered nonsense by Rizzo’s July, where he’s slugging .594 without homering somehow, his hard-contact is back over 40% and his line-drive rate is over 30% of the month of July. So in these past couple weeks, Rizzo’s lack of homers is something more of a quirk than a sign of concern.

Still, overall, Rizzo’s homer-production is down again for a second-consecutive year, and he’s going to have to hustle to get over 30 for the season that’s been the norm for him for his career. And while belting line-drives all over the field isn’t a bad thing by any means, it’s not really Rizzo’s game at all. He’s also carrying the lowest launch-angle of his career by some distance, so it still feels like something is up, at least a little.

So what went on in June, what’s going on now, and what does it all mean?

The first thing you notice about Rizzo’s June is that he was having real trouble with offspeed pitches. His whiff-percentage went from 8% in May on them to 20% in June, or 38% whiffs per swing. He wasn’t really seeing them more often, he just couldn’t do anything with them. Overall though, Rizzo wasn’t hitting anything well.

But now he is. And it appears that he’s rediscovered what to do with pitches on the outside part of the plate, even outside the zone. Here’s his slugging by zone before June 1st, in June, and in July:

Rizzo is definitely concentrating on left field again, as he’s upped that percentage to 34.3% this month, which is well above his career average of 22%. And considering how much trouble he was having with offspeed and breaking pitches in June, it makes sense that he’s waiting longer, happy to drive fastballs the other way to give himself just a hair more time to diagnose curves and sliders and changes and such. Which might be why in the month of July, his average exit-velocity on offspeed pitches is 94 MPH. And he’s slugging over .500 on all of curves, sliders, and changes.

Still, Rizzo is hitting more grounders than ever, and less fly balls than ever, which isn’t good. Some of that has been replaced of late by line-drives, which is good, but all of it means less homers. Why should that be?

That’s harder to pinpoint. Rizzo’s grounders are up across the board, or on every pitch. There’s isn’t anything zone-wise either. He’s just hitting the ball lower. Is that approach? Swing change? Something physical that’s not allowing him to get the lift he used to?

As we move forward, we’ll see if more of Rizzo’s fly balls have just become line drives now, if he’s more Freddie Freeman (or old Freddie Freeman than this version) than Old Rizzo. A 23% fly ball rate is awfully low, which it is in June, but hey, line drives are good. Still feels like something is up here.