Everything Else

The Children Better Be The Future Cuz We Ain’t Got No Present: Trevor Zegras

By Sam Fels 1634 0

We round out our look at possibilities for the Hawks at #3, assuring that they won’t actually take any of these guys, and we’ll stay with the USNMTDP, or whatever alphabet soup makes up what goes on in Ann Arbor. It’s Trevor Zegras.

Physical Stats

Height: 6′ 0″  Weight: 174   Shoots: L

On Ice Stats (’18-’19)

League: USDP   Team: USNTDP  Pos: C/LW

60 games – 26 G – 61 A – 87 P

Why The Hawks Should Take Him

If their Marian Hossa withdrawal is that bad, then Zegras might be the fix. Yes, every goddamn prospect who at least shows a passing interest in his own end gets compared to Marian Hossa, but Zegras might actually deserve it. He has plus-plus speed, and a great burst to get to it, and he is as willing to show it off getting back to his own zone as he is going forward. The inhaling of puck-carriers and stealing the puck you remember from #81 could be a hallmark of Zegras’s game as well, though he’s not as big (we’ll get to that). But it’s not just about willingness with Zegras, who has premier playmaking ability and vision. His hand-eye is also high up if not off the charts, which makes him a weapon around the net. Zegras also is something of a pain in the ass, in a good way, and you know how that always has hockey execs reaching for a hand towel. Zegras is strong for his size and age, but also isn’t afraid of getting into people’s heads and I’m sure a Brad Marchand comparison isn’t too far into his future. Zegras also have positional flexibility, being able to play center and wing, which means he can be eased into the league whenever he gets there on the wing and then moved to center if need be.

Why The Hawks Shouldn’t Take Him.

Along with being a stretch, Zegras is probably the farthest away from the NHL of everyone previewed. He will need at least a year at BU, and maybe two, as the game he wants to play is going to require strength he hasn’t needed yet and doesn’t have. Second, while the positional flexibility is a good thing to have, there are better players at each of them the Hawks can have. If they really want a center, Turcotte is probably better bet and comes with a lot of the same qualities. If it’s a wing they want, then get Caufield who already has an NHL-level skill in scoring, and perhaps a high-level NHL skill. And at just 6-0, playing a grinding game as Zegras is tempted to do might wear him down pretty quickly. And there’s always a chance he becomes in love with his nuisance persona, but that’s being harsh.

Verdict

Zegras seems a nice floor guy. You know that at minimum you’ll get a two-way center or wing with a lot of speed who probably rarely if ever drops out of your bottom six. But at #3, you shouldn’t be worried about floor but ceiling, and his is a touch lower than Byram’s or Turcotte’s or even Caufield’s. While two years waiting isn’t that long, and Zegras could likely be ready after just a year at BU, the Hawks really can’t risk waiting around for two seasons for this pick to make an impact. By that point they may already be toast. A couple slots lower and this pick would make all the sense in the world. At #3, it would be kind of a lack of imagination.

Baseball

Series Preview – Mets vs. Cubs: Something About These Colors

By Sam Fels 1292 0

vs.

RECORDS: Mets 35-39   Cubs 40-33

GAMETIMES: Thursday 7:05, Friday-Sunday 1:20

TV: Thursday WGN, Friday NBCSN, Saturday and Sunday ABC

ASLEEP ON THE 7 TRAIN: Mets Blog

PITCHING MATCHUPS

Walker Lockett vs. Tyler Chatwood

Jason Vargas vs. Yu Darvish

Zack Wheeler vs. Jose Quintana

Jacob deGrom vs. Cole Hamels

PROBABLE METS LINEUP

Jeff McNeil – LF

Pete Alonso – 1B

Robinson Cano – 2B

Michael Conforto – RF

Wilson Ramos – C

Todd Frazier – 3B

Amed Rosario – SS

Juan Lagares – CF

PROBABLE CUBS LINEUP

Kyle Schwarber – LF

Kris Bryant – 3B

Anthony Rizzo – 1B

Javier Baez – SS

Willson Contreras – C

Jason Heyward – RF

David Bote – 2B

Albert Almora Jr. – CF

 

As the Cubs return to regularly schedules National League action, they’ll be greeted by the visit of the ship that always seems to be facing the wrong way, the New York Mets. What is it about teams in this shade of blue and orange? There’s a lot of similarities between the Mets and Edmonton Oilers, from the greatness in the 80s to the seemingly unable to get out of their own way methods of the past decade to wasting the prime of generational talents like deGrom and now possibly Pete Alonso. It was ever thus with the Mets.

Alonso is the story on the offensive side for the Metropolitans. He’s third in the NL in homers with 24, seventh in slugging, and has propped up a lineup that has had to drag along too many guys, including Robinson Cano who was supposed to be the dragger and not the dragee. Other Mets system products like Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil have done most of the rest of the heavy lifting. The offense took something of a hit when Brandon Nimmo‘s neck was filled with bugs and Yeonis Cespedes’s feet were the recipient of a witch’s curse (though Cespedes has never been that good), which forced Juan Legares into the lineup every day pretty much. Todd Frazier has been just about average, as has Wilson Ramos. It’s a line up that just screams, “fine.” There are some clear holes.

The rotation is about what you’d expect, though it’s had what are no its usual injury problems, as every member of it has missed a start or two and had to have some weird microscopes or resonance tests. It’s very Mets. deGrom, Thor, and Wheeler have also suffered from what is still a subpar Mets defense, as they’re carrying far lower FIPs than ERAs. The Cubs will only have to see two of them this weekend in Wheeler and deGrom, whose matchup with Hamels on Sunday is going to be the main event of this series. That’s not to discount Vargas who has been able to dance through the rain drops this year with some heavy fly ball ways and some righteous BABIP Kung Fu Treachery. Walker Lockett, which sounds like a name out of Deadwood, will make his Mets debut tonight instead of Thor. He’s a control/grounder type who made a brief cameo for the Padres last year.

The Mets pen has been the normal adventure is always seems to be. Prized winter acquisition Edwin Diaz has not turned out the lights as he had before, though mostly effective. Robert Gsellman is already about to die of exhaustion. Seth Lugo has been another stalwart, but after that the Mets have trotted out 17 other clowns to try and get outs and it’s been…well, let’s say abstract. Jeurys Familia, scumbag that he is, responded to losing his closer role by being awful and then hurt, and the Mets haven’t found any other solutions besides the first three mentioned.

And as always, the Mets are a circus off the field, between how they’ve ground their pitchers with obvious injuries to the bullpen to not getting a game out of Jared Lowrie with an injury they can’t seem to diagnose, to today where they’ve fired their pitching and bullpen coach. You can always count on them to be the Mets.

For the Cubs, they’ll fill in for Kyle Hendricks tonight by letting Tyler Chatwood start and then having their only pitching prospect Adbert Alzolay follow up. It’s a first look at an actual, breathing promise on the mound for the Cubs, who have yet to produce one since…arguably Hendricks? Before that it’s probably Andrew Cashner? Let’s not think about it.

As for the rest, they’ll hope Contreras’s big night is the sign of another binge, as the Cubs could use it. They will miss Thor and Matz, which is something of a boon, but they’ll not want to have to get past deGrom to win this series if at all possible, as he’s coming off his best start of the season. Then again, they made quick work of Lucas Giolito, so who fucking knows?

The Braves will be a stiff test after this. Best to treat the Mets like the Mets.

 

Baseball

Mets Spotlight: Has Michael Conforto Finally Survived The Mets?

By Sam Fels 1243 0

It seems a long while ago that Michael Conforto was bursting on the scene in 2015. While at the time the Mets had already rolled out Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and Steven Matz in their rotation, Conforto was the first shot in a homegrown lineup to match the rotation. Conforto lit up the National League for the last two months of the season, with a .509 slugging, 133 wRC+, and a .359 wOBA and was along for the ride to the World Series that year. After trading for Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets looked to have their outfield set for a bit, at least in the corners.

But never doubt the Mets ability to be the Mets.

Conforto struggled in his first full go-around in the majors, as players tend to do. But mostly it was due to some rotten luck, and Conforto was still was getting on base through walks, hitting the ball pretty damn hard, he just couldn’t get anything to fall. It earned him a brief demotion back to Triple-A, which opened up space for the Mets to acquire…Jay Bruce? Yep, that’s right. The Mets ended that season with an outfield of Curtis Granderson, Cespedes in center (where his graham cracker ligaments were always going to do really well), and Bruce in right, making an excellent impression of the old people and their walkers doing their laps around the mall. Needless to say the looks on the Mets pitchers’ faces as line drives and fly balls kept falling into open spaces while that trio wheezed and gagged over to them would have been Websters-worthy of “bemused.”

Again, never doubt the Mets ability to be the Mets, because they re-signed Bruce and then tried to cram Conforto in center, where he had never really played. And trying to cover for Bruce and Cespedes, when he wasn’t disintegrating, or whatever Granderson had left, wasn’t exactly the place to learn the position. Conforto did hit the shit out of the baseball though, with a 147 wRC+ as he was shuffled around and to the bench.

The Mets seemingly got the message last year, though Cespedes showing up in the morgue might have helped with that. After brief flirtations with Austin Jackson and Jose Bautista, the proverbial poking dead bodies with a stick, the Mets allowed Conforto to play left every day and Brandon Nimmo to play center.

They’ve moved Conforto over to right this season, and he’s responding with one of his best offensive season. His walk-rate is a career-high, and his slugging and other numbers are around his ’16 level. Conforto’s line-drive heavy ways are back from a year hiatus as well.

The difference appears to be Conforto’s production on slower pitches. He’s always been a “Can Pull A Bullet” guy, but struggled with change-ups and curves. This year he’s hitting those at a .250 and .267 clips, which are way above his career norms. That helps buttress his usual fireworks on the hard stuff (.289 and .579 slugging).

Even better for Conforto is he no longer has to carry this lineup after everyone gets hurt. Pete Alonso is odds on to win the NL Rookie Of The Year with his homer-a-day policy. That doesn’t mean the Mets haven’t totally been the Mets, as their trade for Robinson Cano is looking like another piece of Queens genius as Cano has caught Cespedes ligaments and health and hasn’t been any good when he has been around. And thanks to that lineup and some injuries in the rotation the Mets haven’t been able to vault themselves into the NL East discussion, which the Braves look like they might turn moot soon anyway.

Still, at least Conforto didn’t get completely buried by Mets-iness. It’s killed many before him.

Everything Else

The Children Better Be The Future Cuz We Ain’t Got No Present – Cole Caufield

By Sam Fels 1685 0

The FFUD #3 pick preview keeps rolling on, and today we’ll look at one who would be a true stretch but also might put up the best numbers of anyone. 

Physical Stats

Height: 5′ 7″  Weight: 157   Shot: Right

On-Ice Stats (’18-’19)

League: USDP  Team: USNTDP  Position: LW

64 games – 72G – 28A – 100P

Why The Hawks Should Take Him

Goals. The name of the game is still scoring goals, and if you’re going to have a one-dimensional player, as long as that dimension is scoring the fuck out of the thing, then that’s ok. And Caufield is the best pure scorer in the draft. That’s clear, no one is disputing that. 72 goals in 64 games, even at that level, is enough for anyone to take notice. He’s also dominated at international level for his age group, with 14 goals in seven games at the U-18s. The release is already making people think of Ovechkin and MacKinnon, He’s not the skater that MacKinnon is but he’s hardly a plug on his feet and is more than fast and smart enough to get to the open spaces to get off that shot. The hands are there too, so the thought is that his playmaking could improve, whereas this year he had Jack Hughes to do all that and all he had to do was finish. Some would say getting to play with Hughes inflates the numbers, as if you could complain about 72 goals, but as we learned with DeBrincat you still gotta finish those chances and Caufield does it at what could be called a generational level.

Why The Hawks Shouldn’t Take Him

One, he’s a stretch. Even as he’s climbed up the boards as people ignore his size, he tops out as the fifth-highest rated prospect and lower on other boards. You’d be passing on what look to be better players to take him, unless you trade down and that would mean getting something tangible for the #3 pick. And the Hawks aren’t going to trade the #3 pick. If he’s your guy he’s your guy, though.

This is where I’m supposed to say size. No, the Hawks have shown they don’t really care about that if the talent is there, and hopefully they stick with that, but the Hawks are starting to specialize in small, nippy forwards and eventually you do have to have someone at least average-sized somewhere. Even if Caufield were in the NHL in ’20-’21 (which seems likely), there’s just about only one spot he can play and that’s across from Kane, and boy would that line be fun, in the good way offensively and the bad way defensively.

Third, the Hawks need a top-pairing d-man and they probably need someone to carry on from Jonathan Toews in two to three years, and Caufield isn’t either of those. The Hawks do have a chance to get either of those at #3, and while Caufield has a special skill you can’t really teach, wingers just don’t move the needle or change directions of teams as much or as often.

Verdict

To call Caufield “a risk” is wide of the mark. The dude is going to score, and he’s going to score a ton. As soon as he arrives with whatever teams gets him, he’s going to fill the net and there will be a ton of articles about the teams that passed on him, simply because of that one stat. But it is THE stat. That said, at #3 and what the Hawks have a chance to get, it seems too much of a stretch. You can never have too many guys who can score 40, and Caufield probably gets to that before too long. But he just isn’t as dynamic as Byram or Turcotte.

Now if you get a bonkers package for the #3 pick and somehow end up at #5-8 where Caufield might go…then we’re talking…but that’s not going to happen.

Everything Else

Series Wrap – Cubs And White Sox Split: Baseball Gonna Baseball On Ya

By Sam Fels 1346 0

Game 1 Box Score: Sox 3, Cubs 1

Game 2 Box Score: Cubs 7, Sox 3

It’s somehow perfect, at least on the blue side, that this mini-series would work out in opposite fashion than you would have guessed. The Cubs couldn’t figure out Ivan Nova, but then they shelled the American League’s hottest pitcher. Sure. Why wouldn’t it be that? Nothing about this Crosstown affair has ever made sense. And of course it would be Willson Contreras delivering the deathblow tonight, because I poopooed him earlier in the day. You can’t fucking script this stuff.

So the Cubs and Sox split. Everyone who works at NBCSN will try and attach greater meaning to it. And there is none. It was just two games. In the words of Homer, “It was just a bunch of stuff that happened.”

The Two Obs

-Fine, we’ll get the main story, or the one that everyone will push, out of the way first. Of course Eloy Jimenez hit the winning homer off of Pedro Strop in the 9th of the first game. It’s the perfect arc. The Cubs have pen problems, Strop is meant to be a partial salve, Eloy is the “one who got away” according to everyone who needs there to be a narrative. We could have told you this on Monday afternoon.

Clear up some facts, partially thanks to Hess. Quintana has been better than Lester since he arrived, and if you sold the trade as Eloy and Cease for Lester, Cubs fans probably go along with that. Second, Schwarber and Eloy have been equals mostly for this year, so it’s not clear where the hell Eloy would have played had he still been here. Eloy will go on to be a great player, likely. The Cubs did not make a mistake. Both of these thing can be true.

(If you want the mistake, check out Gleyber for Aroldis. And that one ended with a parade, so is it really?)

-It’s strange that Ivan Nova has been so much better on the road, because thanks to the weather Comiskey has not played like the launch pad it normally does. But that’s just how it’s been.

-Lester got six whiffs on the eight swings on his curve tonight, which I suppose is encouraging. Him having to hump and sweat through 17 outs kind of isn’t.

-Aaron Bummer is kind of the perfect example of how weird relievers can be. He came up in ’17, and though he had a bad ERA no one could really touch him, as a .178 BA against would prove. Perhaps an inept defense didn’t help. Last year, he was bad, and now he’s dominant. Would you take the bet that he nets more than Colome at the deadline? He does throw left-handed, remember.

-Galactus is fighting it a bit, at the moment.

-From the minute that Kelli Crull said she’d be touring the park during Game 1, you knew exactly what would happen, right? It would be a series of couples and groups split between fans of each team, and they would just scream into the microphone. And it would be something along the lines of the Cub fan screaming how great Wrigley is and the Sox fan about how Cubs fans are only out for the party and other shit we debunked like 15 years ago. We’ve been watching this for 22 years. Give her something better to do for all of our sakes, especially hers.

-Hmm, David Bote homered on the same day I suggested he just play every day. Is it working in reverse now?

Onwards…

Everything Else

Escrow Is Just Code For “Imma Get Mine”

By Sam Fels 2263 0

Before we get any farther, this blog has always been pro-union, wherever that may be. NHL owners, all team owners really, and probably almost all insanely rich people are evil and need to be fought against and reigned in. I am wearing three Che Guevara shirts right now.

That said, the NHL is being stupid on all sides. I can’t sum it up any better than Barry Petchesky does here, but in a nutshell we’re in the height of NHL transaction series and no one has any idea what their budgets are. That’s really solid work there, and only possible in hockey. It wouldn’t be so hard to figure out a hard deadline when both sides need to agree on what the cap should be, except neither has gotten around to it for what seems to be simply because neither thought of it. That’s hockey, baby.

Anyway, the main sticking point here is that the players don’t want to use their installed escalator to the cap, which can go up to 5% of what the cap is dictated to be. So if the cap were set at $82.6M, the players could raise it as high as 86.7M. But they won’t, because of escrow.

At this point I’m guessing most of you know what escrow is, but for those who don’t, because the salary cap is pegged at projections of a 50/50 split of revenue, portions of a player’s check are held back in case actual revenue doesn’t meet the projections of a 50-50 split. Now, I imagine having 10% of your salary just held in jail every month sucks, because you have a contract that says you should get paid the full amount. Especially when we’re talking about guys making $8-10 million, that’s a lot of money you’re not seeing. Anyway, at the end of the year when everyone knows what revenues are, that money gets returned to the player or sent to the owners to even everything out.

And players hate it. You can see why, but the problem is that there really isn’t any other way. If you have a system that bases salaries and salary caps on projections, then there’s always going to be some sort of fail-safe to make sure the real numbers match up with the projected ones. You can’t know for sure what revenues will be down to the dollar. And sure, the owners don’t have similar skin in the game because they don’t have salaries, they just take the revenue that’s not given out as salaries. There’s nothing from them that can be put in something similar to escrow.

You could peg the cap to the previous year’s revenues, but then players wouldn’t be making half of what the owners are currently making and the players would hate that. You could try and just negotiate a fixed number years ahead, but neither the players or owners are going to risk getting less than half the pie now. There’s little wiggle room, so not utilizing the escalator is the surest way to keep escrow down or even not have it at all.

And to the players, or at least the bigger ones up the chain, that’s what matters. But the problem is that not raising the cap squeezes out a lot of other players. How many veterans, who probably should be earning $3M a year or so, end up just signing PTOs in September because teams simply don’t have the space to fit them in yet? How many veterans are going to give up total salary, not just escrow, to fit into a team’s cap space simply because they have to. Maybe it’s their last contract.

So Jonathan Toews can bitch about escrow all he likes, but someone should ask him if that money that he only “might” not get is more important than say, players like Marcus Kruger or Valtieri Filppula getting jobs at all or having to take serious pay cuts. You are supposed to be a union after all, aren’t you? A higher cap means more for more players. You would think it’s the greater good.

Again, the players agreed to this system. If they hate it so much they should have actually held out for a luxury tax system, or at worst some kind of veteran or mid-level exception like the NBA so that their non-use of the escalator isn’t costing other players jobs. But at the end, much like owners, players aren’t really that concerned with getting everyone something as long as they get their something.

Baseball

Will The Cubs Need Another Bat?

By Sam Fels 1502 0

Granted, this is a poor post to explore a day after you’ve been smothered by Ivan Nova, statistically the worst starter in all of baseball. One is capable of the irrational at the moment. And it’s not fair to get really emotional about it when you’ve just run the Dodgers gauntlet for four games, because right now no one is scoring against them. But the thing is if you want to go anywhere, you’re going to have to bust through that Crossing The Desert, or out-slug them, or out-slug the Brewers to even win the division (Lord knows the Brewers aren’t going to out-pitch anyone), or the suddenly nuclear Braves…anyway, you get it.

The worry area for the Cubs all season has been the pen, and the signing of Craig Kimbrel doesn’t magically make all of that go away. And you still imagine that when the deadline approaches, that still will be Priority #1, and possibly #2 and even #3. Fair enough, the Cubs still only have two to three reliable guys right now, and that might even include Kimbrel. There are a lot of wildcards out there.

Still, what’s been apparent is the Cubs have obvious holes in the lineup. They’re at second, center, and right. The last is being a tad harsh, as even with Jason Heyward’s abhorrent May, he’s still having an above-average offensive year (barely). But we can aim for a little higher than barely above average, at least I hope we can. Mom always told me aim high. The Cubs can carry average or a tick below at one spot, maybe even two.

The problem is that when the main five–Bryant, Rizzo, Contreras, Baez, and now Schwarber–aren’t all firing at the same time then the offense becomes something of a wasteland after the fifth hitter. Baez is in a slump, Contreras has gotten ground-ball happy again, and this is a big reason the Cubs haven’t put together a bunch of runs of late.

Still, I don’t want to base things on a bad week or two. It’s a long goddamn season. But over the last month, the Cubs are 10th in runs in the NL, 12th in average, 11th in wOBA. A month gets harder to ignore.

And what’s clear is that the answers mostly aren’t on the team. There’s no way the Cubs could have foreseen that Ben Zobrist would leave the team and his return be totally up in the air. It’s easy to forget how good Zobrist was last year in a more limited role in service of his age, but his 123 wRC+ or .355 wOBA would be miles above anything they’re getting for the most part from anyone not in that fivesome mentioned.

With Zoby 18 being somewhere in the quantum zone, the Cubs aren’t left with many answers. Carlos Gonzalez is dead. He’s not going to be reanimated. Everyone but Joe Maddon seems to know this. What’s hilarious is that Mark Zagunis was never given near the opportunities that CarGo has been, and his numbers are significantly better. And no, that’s not a plea to recall ZagNuts and play him. It’s just an illustration of how toast CarGo is.

Addison Russell is probably not going to hit, because he never really has. Some in the organization are blinded by the 98 RBI he put up once, but that’s more a function of the great offense ahead of him in ’16 than him being a great hitter. He’s never had an above-average offensive season, and has been actively bad the last three seasons. Daniel Descalso has been a disaster, and would likely be DFA’d if Zobrist were to return.

Whatever momentum Albert Almora might have had in May has been stunted by the arrival and usage of Gonzalez. I’m not sure how exactly, but Almora had a productive May. He had terrible luck (.253 BABIP), still hit too many grounders (50%, but that was down from April), and yet hit for enough power to overcome all of that. It’s the Heyward argument; given his defense you take average or just above offense and you have yourself a very useful player. June has seen Almora hit the ball in the same fashion as May, at least contact-type wise, it’s just that none of it has gone out of the park as a quarter of his fly balls did in May. I don’t know what the truth is here, but I know there’s more potential here than trying to wheeze one more breath of oxygen into CarGo.

The only in-house answer right now is to play David Bote every day. I know that Maddon would tell me that would expose Bote, or make the Cubs too right-handed, but quite frankly that’s horseshit. In fact, Bote has been terrible against left-handed pitching this year and great against right-handed, the complete opposite of last year. Which makes you at least hope he could blend the two one day.

Bote’s run into some bad luck in June as well, as he’s had a 32% line-drive rate in the month which is insanely high. Overall, his hard-contact rate is down but I can’t see how lacing line-drives all over the place is a bad thing. He’s hardly a star, but given what else you have, it’s just about the only choice. Whether that’s playing second with Almora in center and Heyward in right, or at third with Bryant in right and Heyward in center, I really don’t care. You have to at least try. We know Maddon loves his roster flexibility, but that’s not this roster. Quite frankly. Russell, CarGo, and Descalso have played themselves off the rotation. That’s just how it is.

The problem with getting a bat via trade is they’re going to be costly, whereas you can find any reliever anywhere (and I’m kind of in the would rather have Bummer than Colome camp right now if the Cubs go shopping crosstown again). In my dreams you plug Howie Kendrick into second base and get on with your life. But even if the Nats decide to pack up the cats, Kendrick is going to cost and I don’t think the Cubs have the boat to spend, prospect-wise. It’s like Alzolay and Hoerner and that’s pretty much it. We’ll throw Amaya on there, but he’s a long way off. And Amaya is probably the only one you’re comfortable, barely, including in any deal just because he plays catcher and you seem set there for a while.

Any other bat on the market is probably the same story. It’s hard to know who that would even be. Whit Merrifield isn’t going anywhere and if he did it wouldn’t be cheap. Eric Sogard? That’s a risk but would probably be cheap? He’s kind of Zobrist-lite at this point and is only a year removed from being a black hole for the Brewers. Maybe you wait out how the Reds toggle the Derek Dietrich/Scooter Gennett conundrum, but neither are guaranteed to be moved and neither would be cheap if they were.

It’s a problem, which is why Bote should probably be given the month to see what he does with an every day role. Hell, you extended the guy anyway, right?

Everything Else

The Children Better Be the Future, Cuz We Ain’t Got No Present – Dylan Cozens

By Rose Rankin 1512 0

The FFUD #3 Pick Preview rolls on with a guy who has the same name as an injured Phillies prospect, in a coincidence both weird and possibly accurate.

Physical Stats

Height: 6′ 3″; Weight: 183; Shot: Right

On-Ice Stats (2018-19)

League: WHL; Team: Lethbridge Hurricanes; Position: Center

34 G; 50 A; 84 P

Why the Hawks Should Take Him

Cozens can skate. That’s his number one quality, and on this Hawks team that ability shouldn’t be underestimated. We love Dylan Strome around these parts, but skating is definitely not his strong suit. And Toews won’t be getting any faster either. Cozens is most naturally a center, and if  you squint, you could see him as a 3C, ostensibly on an energy line with Kubalik or Sikura or any of the other bottom-six rabble. He can get control of the puck and move it through the neutral zone, and at 6’3″ he’s big enough to win puck battles down low, and then he can use his speed to get up the ice and make a zone entry. Which shouldn’t be that hard but you know what we’re dealing with here.

By all accounts, Cozens is a solid two-way player with a decent shot, and even though he’s tall he’s not a slobbering oaf (yet at least). His offensive capabilities have been noted since he was 16, when he scored eight points in 12 games, the second-most for a WHL player at that age behind Brayden Point. He finished this season tied for 10th in points, and his total of 84 was a 30-point jump from his previous season. So he’s got offensive potential.

Why the Hawks Shouldn’t Pick Him

Speed is important, don’t get me wrong, but unfortunately Cozens isn’t all that skilled. Yes his numbers are good, but we’re talking about his 16-year-old season? That’s discomforting in its Pierre McGuire-ness. I at least would want his current season to be enough that we don’t have to talk about him basically as a god damn Bantam. And at this point, he’s pretty much a bottom-six guy. Granted, Cozens would be a hell of a lot cheaper than Artem Anisimov, the costliest 4C there ever was, but is it really worth using the third pick on a third-liner? He may be a top-six player one day but that will depend on a lot of improvement.

I guess you could argue that there’s nothing inherently wrong with the Hawks taking another forward, since the depth they have could either 1) end up being filled with shit, or 2) lead to a roulette wheel of forwards and we don’t know who will work well together yet so why not have a whole bunch of them. But if he can’t make it as a center on the depth chart, it’s tough to imagine Cozens on a line with Toews or Strome, since that would leave Top Cat and Garbage Dick to move to their off side (not happening) or Cozens himself would have to move (not proven that could work).

And, with all of that being the case it would be incredibly frustrating to see the third pick come to that, rather than Byram, when we all know damn well it’s the blue line we have to worry about. Seriously, talking about a potential NHL center when there’s a quality defenseman available is annoying in itself, so thanks for that, Hawks.

Verdict

Dylan Cozens wouldn’t hurt the lineup, but he may not help it much either. He could be packaged as part of a deal, since there is no shortage of young forwards for the Hawks to be dealing, but it’s hard to see that as a worthwhile use of a #3 pick. Unless that deal can magically bring Dougie Hamilton, then fine. Even in a worst-case scenario he won’t really do any harm and could potentially be a decent center. So that’s…something? And maybe we’d have another guy to use the Dave Chappelle Dylan gif for.

Everything Else

Why Not Put George McPhee Over Jim Hendry’s Barrel?

By Sam Fels 1698 0

While I sit here and still try and wrap my head around the Olli Maatta trade and failing terrible and falling deeper into my own ennui, a Justin Bruan trade didn’t help today. He’s at least twice as good as Maatta, didn’t cost any players, and is only signed for one season so if it didn’t work you can all part ways after the year, or if you have young players ready to ascend. He actually does what the Hawks must think Maatta does but doesn’t, and he wouldn’t have cost any players.

Be that as it may, and this isn’t only a Hawks problem, but if you want to solve any problem your team might have, why aren’t teams coming, and I mean sprinting, to pick the bones off the Golden Knights’ cap problems. We’ve gone over this before, but let’s review: George McPhee needed only two seasons to completely bork a completely blank cap situation.

The Knights are capped out. Not like, just sort of capped out. They literally have no space under a $83M salary cap, and it very well might turn into an $82M one. They have not re-signed William Karlsson. They have not re-signed, Nikita Gusev. They have not re-signed Tomas Nosek. They don’t have a backup goalie. And that’s before July 1st.

Sure, they could go over the cap by 10% until Opening night, which will help a little bit. Except Karlsson is going to gobble most of that up. And they could use David Clarkson’s LTIR. But as we learned with Hossa, using that in the offseason really bones you during the season where basically no one can get hurt. And you can’t make any trades.

No matter what here, the Knights have to move some people out. And they can’t take any players back. There can’t be a team more interested in taking only picks and prospects back in a trade, because they simply can’t cram in anyone else onto the roster. You should be dangling everything in front of them.

So why not call and see what Colin Miller would cost? Hell, aim higher and see if Shea Theodore can be pried loose. Someone’s gotta go. Find out who it is.

Or hell, let’s get nuts. Offer sheet Wild Bill. I don’t even know if he fits on the Hawks, but you can find a place for him on the top six. Go with your “3+1″model with Kampf as the 1. Offer him $6M a year because right now the Knights literally can’t match it. They have no space. Maybe Eakin or Haula are gettable to replace what you just lost in Kahun for a season. Who fucking cares? Get him over that barrel.

This isn’t even a Hawks complaint, because all the sharks should be circling around the Knights right now. If they’re such the darlings of the NHL and are so ahead of the curve, it stands to reason everyone wants their players. And they can’t keep all their players. Is there some rule I missed that the Knights can just spend whatever they want so everyone gets their comped rooms in the spring? It’s still hilarious that with a blank slate the Knights are in this spot. You would think it would have been near impossible. But McPhee made it look so easy.

Whatever, the Hawks made their move. I guess I’d better just be resigned to it. Ennui, here I come.