Baseball

We Know Your Nature – 2019 Cubs Player Reviews: Kris Bryant

By Sam Fels 1815 0

Folks, I’m gonna be honest with you. I fear the end of the World Series. And I fear it because the day after and every single day after that I’m going to wake up thinking, “Today is the day the Cubs are going to do something truly stupid.” And really, what I’m thinking of, at the top of the list at least, is that they’ll trade Kris Bryant. It would be just about the biggest mistake the Cubs could make, save Mookie Betts coming the other way and being signed long-term. Which won’t happen. You do a rebuild, and flog whatever you can for prospects and picks hoping that just one of those picks or prospects will turn into a Kris Bryant. You don’t keep doing that cycle. They don’t come around that often. You can’t just find another one because you want to. They are unicorns, which is possibly why Bryant sparkles in the way he does.

Was Bryant’s year the best? No. For the second year in a row he dealt with nagging injuries which hampered his production. Once again, he was forced to play through it because the rest of the team was too helpless to pull away or then even compete in the division. And the Cubs medical staff working its magic again. Is this the new normal? I doubt it, but I guess you can’t eliminate it. Anyway, let’s run it through.

2019 Stats

147 games  634 PA

.282/.382/.521

31 HR  77 RBI

11.7 BB%  22.9K%

135 wRC+  .379 wOBA  .903 OPS

-4.1 Defensive Runs Saved  4.8 WAR

Tell Me A Story: Well, first of all, 2019 was a huge improvement on 2018. Slugging up 60 points, wOBA up 20 points, 18 more homers. Also played 45 more games. But also for the second straight season, Bryant’s season did not measure up to his first three years in the league where he was Galactus, Eater Of Worlds. How much his knee problem played into that, we just don’t know for sure. But we can guess.

April was a bit rough for Bryant. He only hit .230, but had a high walk-rate and one of his lower K-rates. He was also undone by some fiendish BABIP kung-fu treachery, with a .263 mark. That would be by far the lowest mark of any month in the season. And that explains most of it, as Bryant was carrying a hard-contact rate of just about 40% in the season’s opening, and a line-drive rate over 20%. He was just unlucky.

We know that, because everything corrected over the next three months. In May, June, and July, Bryant ran wRC+ numbers of 193, 140, and 132, the kind of dominance and destruction you know and love from #17. He slugged .719, .480, and .547. This is what it’s supposed to look like.

And then it goes to shit in August, right about the time Bryant hurt his knee. A 95 wRC+. His walks basically disappeared to a 8.5% mark. His hard-contact rate dropped to 25%, and his line-drive rate was simply a sad and lonely (Secret Machines rule!) 12.7%. And yet he played through it. He shouldn’t have, but he did.

Now his September numbers look like they rebounded. But there’s a caveat there. His numbers in September are buffeted by simply going Donkey Kong on PCP and no one took the mallet away on the Pirates in that three-game series where it looked like things might actually come correct. He went 7-for-14, with three homers. After that, he had three hits against the Reds and Cardinals and then his season was over. The knee was still a problem.

There’s a lot of teeth-gnashing about Bryant’s contact numbers, because the team as a whole didn’t make enough contact. But the thing is that Bryant made the same exact amount of contact this year that he did in his MVP year. Had he not gotten hurt in August, and carried out his middle three months the final two, and ended up with 6.0 WAR or so, no one would give a shit about Bryant’s contact rates.

When looking at how Bryant did against certain pitches, most everything in 2019 is in line with what he did in his career before. There’s been basically no change except for health. So unless the Cubs know or heavily suspect that his body is never going to be quite right, he’s going to be an MVP candidate again very soon as long as something doesn’t go TWANG!

If there’s one area of concern other than his health, it’s his defense. It was negative again, though not as bad as the previous season. Still, Bryant was a plus 3rd basemen in his first three years, and one wonders if health was a part of his not being so again. There is a worry about a 6-5 dude playing third long-term. But Bryant isn’t much better in the outfield either, even though his athleticism keeps him from being anything like a disaster out there. Again, we won’t have an answer on this until he completes another full season healthy.

Contract: 3rd arbitration year of four, projected at $18.5M

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: Welcome back forever. Go to Scott Boras and hand Bryant $30-$35M a year until he’s 35 and don’t ask any questions. The idea that the Cubs “can’t” re-sign Bryant is simply ludicrous. Just hand him the most money, which he deserves. There are maybe four players you’d trade him for? Betts is one. Trout’s another. They’re not coming. Neither is Jose Altuve. I can’t stress this enough. Since he came into the league, the only more valuable players than Bryant–even with the injuries–are Trout and Betts. That’s it. You don’t let these players leave unless you’re insane or insanely greedy or both (and the Ricketts family is very likely both of those). He should be here until he retires, and then his jersey should immediately go up the left field foul pole. No waiting around. You simply don’t cut these guys adrift.

There is no way, none, where this team gets better without Bryant. At least not one that’s even a possibility. I’m fairly sure Theo knows this, but the question is can he sell that to the owners? That’s the only obstacle. Hold me to this, but if Bryant is ever allowed to leave, it’ll be at least twice as bad as when Greg Maddux was. I’ll wear it, and so will the rest of us if it happens.

Baseball

All The Boys In The Band Know How To Get Down – 2019 Sox Player Reviews: Leury Garcia

By Andy Jonathan 1350 0

Every team needs a Swiss Army Knife, the kind of player you can throw in any position at any point in the game and can hopefully expect league average production. Leury Garcia has been that knife for the White Sox for the past few seasons, let’s see how this one went.

 

2019 Stats

.279/.310/.378

3.4 BB% 22.5 K%

8 HR 43 RBI 90 R 15 SB

.294 wOBA 83 wRC+

Defensive Runs Saved +1 UZR +1.6

 

Tell Me A Story: If consistency is one of the most valuable traits for a baseball player in the major leagues, then Leury García is a human ATM machine. For the past three seasons with the White Sox, García has hit above .270, stolen at least 10 bases, and played defense at multiple positions (2B,3B, SS, LF, CF, RF) with at least replacement-level production. He’s also been worth 2.6 WAR for the past three years combined, which for an everyday player (which he wasn’t supposed to be) is just OK but for a super utility man is way more than acceptable.

Coming into the 2019 season García was expected to play around 100 games, spelling Anderson, Moncada and Yolmer during the week and then playing occasional OF as needed. It was a solid plan, and would have worked out perfectly. Unfortunately, it turned out that Jon Jay’s skeletal system was made of balsa wood and paper mache, and the center field position had collapsed on itself like a dying star, where no offensive light or slugging percentage was able to escape its ineptitude. Before the season had even started, the plan had already been shot to shit.

Previously the most games García had played in a season was the 87 he logged in 2017. With all the crap mentioned above combined with the fact that Anderson and Moncada both still needed days off AND they ended up missing time with lower body issues meant a whopping 58 game increase for him. Predictably, this resulted in a drop off of his production the last month of the season. Even then he was still league average, which is a pretty solid baseline for your utility guy.

Offensively (as shown by his stats above) García is not an OBP machine. His 3.4% walk rate pretty much confirms that. So if he’s on base, he’s gonna have to hit his way on. That’s not the type of profile you’d want for your leadoff hitter, but low and behold that’s where Renteria had him for a good portion of the season. This isn’t a knock on Renteria (though his lineup construction was sometimes on the level of performance art), as he was just playing the hand he was dealt. The Sox didn’t have a true leadoff hitter on their team, and García was quick on the base paths so he sort of fell into the roll. Ideally, you’d have Leury hitting in the 9-hole, rolling the batting order around with speed to the #1 guy, providing multiple RBI opportunities to your #2 and #3 hole hitters. Perhaps this is what we will see next season, providing he’s not flipped at the winter meetings in a few months or priced out of the White Sox “budget.”

Contract: García is eligible for arbitration this year, and should expect a modest raise from the $1.55 million he made in 2019. I would think his camp would ask for $3 million and the Sox will settle for about $2.6. He’s a free agent in 2021.

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: A lot will depend on how arbitration goes. If the number comes back in the upper $3 million range, the Sox may decide to cut bait and see what production they can get out of Danny Mendick or Ryan Goins spelling Tim and Yoan in the infield. With the team primed to fill some holes through free agency this winter, the need for García to play in the outfield should be much less, and I would expect Adam Engel to be there to fill in any needs as the team’s 4th outfielder.

The possibility for him to be at 2B full time exists if Nick Madrigal isn’t deemed ready for the big time and the Sox say goodbye to Yolmer Sanchez (which looks increasingly likely). In this instance, $3.5 million for a league average second baseman is a pretty good deal. Especially if you can move him back to the super utility role once Madrigal makes his debut later in the season.

Bottom line is as long as his price doesn’t get to exorbitant, or Rick Hahn somehow gets an offer he can’t refuse during the winter meetings I would expect Leury García to be back with the White Sox for the 2020 season.

Previous Player Reviews

James McCann

Welington Castillo

Zack Collins

Jose Abreu

Yolmer Sanchez

Tim Anderson

Yoan Moncada

Eloy Jimenez

 

 

Football

The Vault: Bears/Saints 2007

By Tony Martin 1236 0

Ali/Frazier. Jordan/Bird. Brees/Orton. Some match-ups loom larger than the game itself, as two titans of the sport go head to head in a winner take all showdown. It was week 17 of the 2007 season, with both teams eliminated from playoff contention a mere 12 months removed from their previous encounter in  the NFC Championship. Both games were won by the Bears, which in January of that year took them to the Super Bowl, and in December it dropped them two spots in the next years draft, and it would’ve been sweet if Ryan Clady was the Bears pick instead of *checks notes* uhhhh Chris Williams? Jay Cutler would’ve been much better as a Bear if they had Clady, so I’m retroactively blaming the lack of success of the next few years from an offensive line standpoint on this Week 17 Bears game.

This Bears team has a lot of the holdovers from the Super Bowl squad from the year before. You know all the big names, but it’s always the middle of the pack dudes that I love remembering, so let’s reminisce and see how these hidden gems performed that cold December afternoon.

My Favorite Forgotten Bears from 2007 (in no order):

5. Rashied Davis- (1 Kickoff Return, 5 Yards): I have a soft spot for special teams wide recievers (I might be the only person in Chicagoland that misses Josh Bellamy), and Davis was exactly that. Earl Bennett without the flash, somehow.

4. Garrett Wolfe- (4 Carries, 7 Yards, 1 Catch, 32 Yards): I was at NIU when Wolfe all of a sudden played NCAA Football on Rookie mode, and he was electric. I had no idea that I was hoping for him to be Tarik Cohen until I saw Tarik Cohen. Turns out he wasn’t very good and I was so bummed. Fun fact: this was his longest career catch. Bonus fun fact: I drafted Garrett Wolfe in my fantasy league that year, and there’s a harsh noise/grindcore band called Garrett Wolfe and no they aren’t football fans.

3. Israel Idonije- (1 Tackle): Izzy is a guy that nobody outside of Bears fans from this era remember, but those of us that do will always remember how much of a team player Izzy was. He did everything he was asked and played pretty much every spot on the defensive line, while also always being on the punt return teams. There are so many Devin Hester highlights where you can see a huge dude with a 71 on his jersey throwing a key block or escorting Devin to the endzone.

2. Mark Bradley- (1 Catch, 19 Yards) Give me all the special teams wideouts, please. All things considered, Bradley was a bust as a second round pick in the 2005 Draft, but when I looked at the other picks in the 2005 NFL Draft’s second round, they didn’t miss out on anyone that would’ve made sense. 92 career catches and 9TDs in 57 career games is not remarkable, but like I said, dude could block and he just looked the part. I’m also super biased because I crushed Madden 2006 with Mark Bradley, my favorite Bears WR in Madden after Kevin White in Madden 17.

1. Adrian Peterson- (1/1- 9 Yards, 1 Passing TD, 21 Carries 91 Yards, 1 Catch 9 Yards) The OTHER Adrian Peterson. You know, the one that’s lawful good as compared to the lawful evil Hall of Fame running back of the same name. The biggest difference between the two is the talent, but Good Peterson played with the Bears for his entire 8 year career and sure if he was starting you knew someone was hurt, but oh man he gave his all. You’d see him come in on a random 3rd and 18 and catch a 7 yard pass and then cover the punt (since he was always the punt team QB), return to the sideline only to be seen again the next time the special teams was on the field. It’s surreal to think that if your fantasy league played through week 17 that Adrian Peterson would’ve been an RB 2 that week and won your league. If this Adrian Peterson helped you win your Fantasy League in 2007 you should probably Venmo him ten bucks or something. Not because he needs it, but for the principle of the thing. He had the second most receptions on the team that year. Wow that’s ugly.

Anyways, this game was won by the Bears, with Devin Hester scoring twice, once on a long pass and another on a punt return. This was one of those Hester returns where he already has a giant hole to run through and isn’t even touched on his way to the endzone. Before I sound like I’m being critical of the Windy City Flyer or whatever his nickname was, I should establish that he is the greatest returner of all time and absolutely should be in the Hall of Fame.

That said, if you go back and watch his touchdown returns from this era, he is untouched on about half of them. I think a big reason why I have a soft spot for so many of the dudes that anchored the Bears special teams in that era is because the team kept a core together for that purpose and that purpose only and it paid dividends. Bradley, Peterson, Izzy, Brendon Ayanbadejo… those dudes opened up some massive lanes for Devin to take advantage of.

Watching these old highlight reels makes me miss having a solid special teams core like the Bears of that era. The Ryan Pace era has been an improvement in so many ways than the GMs before him, but I do miss the commitment to a group of backups simply because of what they brought to that part of the team.

I hope at some point between now and Sunday’s kickoff, you take a moment and really think about your mid to late aughts Bears players. Sit back and think about Brandon McGowan, won’t you?

Baseball

We Know Your Nature – 2019 Cubs Player Reviews: Javy Baez

By Sam Fels 1670 0

Ah, finally we get to have some fun like the Sox guys are. Other than Anthony Rizzo, the players we’ve looked at so far either had iffy or debatable seasons and/or might end up trade bait. Or they’re just irretrievable assholes. But Javier Baez is pure energy. He’s The Drej, but in a good way.

Where the fuck did I dig that reference up? Like maybe four of you saw “Titan A.E.” Whatever. Let’s move along.

2019 Stats

138 games  561 PA

.281/.318/.531

29 HR  89 RBI

5.0 BB%  27.8 K%

114 wRC+  .347 wOBA  .847 OPS

15.7 Defensive Runs Saved  4.4 WAR

Tell Me A Story: It might be hard to separate the decline, however small, of Baez’s ’19 from his ’18 from the pure exhaustion he assuredly felt. And that almost certainly would have had to contribute to his injury problems which basically had him out all of September. Sure, you don’t fracture your thumb because you’re tired as Baez did, but the dip from the first half to the second half was clear and his heel problem was at least partially due to overuse.

In the season’s first two months, Baez didn’t really drop from his MVP-consideration form of last year, putting up a 138 wRC+ in April and a 124 in May. But something went off the boil in June, and Baez didn’t really ever get back to the heights of the season’s first third. Part of it was that Baez simply stopped walking, which he had been doing within at least emailing distance of league average in the first two months. Now we know with Baez the walks are the outlier and the 2.0% rates of June and July are probably closer to what he is. But he doesn’t have to be.

Luck was also a part of it, as in June Baez only had a BABIP of .257 which is some 80 points off his career mark and season mark. That recovered in July and August, and Baez still slugged over .500 in those months, but it wasn’t as dominant as it had been before. Mostly because Baez just wasn’t getting on base as much, though when he was it almost always was for extra bases, and even those handful of walks he eschewed were making a difference. Baez isn’t ever going to be Adam Dunn or Anthony Rendon and he doesn’t have to be. But a walk-rate of 5-6% makes a huge difference to his overall OBP and offense, and that isn’t beyond him.

There was also a big difference in contact for Baez after the season’s first two months. Whereas in April and May he was hitting the ball as hard as just about anyone (43.4% and 51.6% hard-contact rates), he never got over 40% in the final three months he played. Part of this could have been playing every day slowing the bat a touch, part of it could have been the heel, part of it something else. 2018 saw him with a 22% line-drive rate, and we know what Baez should look like when on song. He had some pretty sad line-drive numbers in both June and August.

We know something must be wrong physically, because Baez’s average exit-velocity on fastballs went from 94.5 MPH in July to 85 MPH in August. That just shouldn’t happen. And it’s not like he was seeing more or less of them when August hit.

One thing pitchers did do was move their fastballs from high and tight to the outside, which would seem weird given that Baez has huge power the opposite way:

But Baez never really adjusted, sending less than 20% of his contact the other way which rocketed his ground-ball rate to 59% in August, by far his highest monthly mark of the year. This should never happen to Javy given the damage he can do to right field, but he gets pull-happy at times. In the season’s first two months, when over a third of his contact went to right field, you’ve seen the numbers. This is something Javy needs to lock in.

Contract: 2nd arbitration year, projected for $9.3M in 2020

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: Welcome him back and never let him go. The Cubs have made noises about at least talking about an extension with Baez this winter, and he seems to be the only lock of the team’s core that will never see another uniform. There are trade whispers about Bryant and Contreras, Rizzo will be in his 30s when his contract is up, and Schwarber also will hear the trade winds blow. But the Cubs wouldn’t dare do that with Baez, though they should probably feel the same way about Bryant. Another talk coming soon. What that number would be to get Baez to sign is open to question, but you’d have to guess it starts somewhere around $22M a year. Baez and close friend Francisco Lindor probably will have some interesting conversations about this. Hopefully they’re about both playing in Wrigley together one day.

What will be interesting is how Baez meshes with a new manager. Joe Maddon saw exactly what Baez could be and never really meddled, knowing it would be a bumpy road at times until this was unveiled. A lot of other managers might have tried to shackle or smooth out Baez’s game, which would have been a waste. He’s now at least close to the finished project, so the new manager doesn’t have many decisions to make. But could he resist? Can a new manager keep Baez at least aware of going the other way at the plate, which makes him basically a doomsday device?

The other thing is getting him backup. He can’t play 155 games next year or something stupid like that, even if he wants to. Nico Hoerner being able to stick early in the season solves this, but that’s no guarantee. Giving Bote a spot-start or two there is a solution that Maddon never wanted to try. If Russell’s evil and dumb ass is catapulted into the nearest tire fire, the Cubs might have to find a cheap solution outside the organization. If they don’t, we’ll know how much they think of Hoerner already.

Either way, Engine #9 is most likely going to be thrilling you for a very long time. Keep him fresh and healthy to make sure that happens.

Previous Cubs Player Reviews

Ian Happ

Barf Bag

Ben Zobrist

David Bote

Anthony Rizzo

Victor Caratini 

Willson Contreras

 

Hockey

What If Kirby Dach Were To Debut On The Wing?

By Sam Fels 2316 0

Normally, I make a pretty awkward, and sometimes even grotesque, face when a player is moved from center to wing or vice versa. Perhaps it’s the PQSD (Post Quenneville Stress Disorder) and the memories of Patrick Kane or Andrew Shaw at center and the counter of Patrick Sharp or Teuvo Teravainen not. When you’ve been around this long, the ghosts and memories are never far from the surface due to sheer volume.

To draw any conclusions about the Hawks lineup after four games, or Kirby Dach’s ascension after just two in the AHL, is obviously silly. There could be injuries or drastic changes to how players are playing, and that’s just in the next 10 games, much less over the next couple months. But hey, the obviously silly is what we specialize in.

Still, what’s obvious is the Hawks want to give Dach a run out at the top level, and they would actually prefer it if he proved to deserve to stick. Hence, it would behoove them to give him the best chance to succeed in however many games it’s going to take to prove that he belongs or he doesn’t. Obviously, skating him on the fourth line between say Ryan Carpenter and Zack Smith really isn’t going to do much for anyone. Then again, this is the Hawks and that’s exactly what might happen so they can turn their palms out and say, “Well, it’s clear he’s just not ready to be in the NHL with a couple of fourth-line stiffs that don’t suit his game in the least.”

The problem is where to fit him in the top nine isn’t so obvious.

Most of that is due to the opening play of the Brandon Saad-David Kampf-Domink Kubalik line. Again, four games, but from opening returns the Hawks might have their own version of the 3M Line in Calgary. A hybrid checking line that can also dominate possession and generate offense from a spot you wouldn’t normally count on it. It would take some convincing to break that line up in the next few games, when Dach’s conditioning stint would be over.

There is an argument for sticking Dach between Saad and Kubalik. Both those wingers are defensively responsible and fast. Both can be one-man breakouts to help get Dach out of the zone. Both have offensive instincts to get to the open spots and open up space for Dach (at least Kubalik has flashed that). Saad’s habit of holding onto the puck for long stretches might not mesh well with Dach. But Dach might also be better off the puck than advertised, at least offensively.

The issue there is that you could no longer use that line as a checking line. You want Kampf doing that, and while I wouldn’t give up on the idea that Kampf with Carpenter and Caggiula/Perlini/Smith could perform much of the same defensive duties from the fourth line as the third line is now. You just wouldn’t get any offense. And maybe you don’t need it.

But say Jeremy Colliton doesn’t want to break up his third line just yet, as they’re quickly turning into something of a binky. Fair enough. Except there’s not really another center spot to put Dach. You’re not moving Strome or Toews to a wing, though at times last year the former was so. We’re beyond that now.

I’ve floated the idea, one that Colliton almost assuredly does not have the stones to try, that Toews could slot down between Saad and Kubalik, and attempt to replicate what that line is doing with Kampf in the middle. Whether Toews is up for the checking duties at this point in his career is a debate we’ve been having for a couple years. And even if he is, can he still provide some scoring juice? Might be worth a look, but we have no idea.

That would leave Dach open to play with Kane or DeBrincat or both, or one of them to slot down with Strome and then make up the other winger through some combo of Shaw and Cagiulla and maybe Nylander or Perlini or whatever else you want to throw to the wall. It would also give you two lines you can start in the defensive zone to give you the flexibility to have two lines who need some hammock shifts, which Dach is almost certainly going to need. But again, I don’t think Colliton has the tires to tell Toews he’s on a third line and if he does I definitely want video of that conversation.

So if that’s not a possibility, what’s left? It would seem an apprenticeship on the wing is all there is. Dach didn’t play wing in junior, so you might actually be stunting his growth by asking him to do it. If he does have it in his locker, then he can be something of a playmaker on a line with Toews and whoever else that it lacks when Toews isn’t playing with Kane. Or he can finish off whatever Daydream Nation create. Or both. It’s not a perfect fit, but it might be the only option.

I have a feeling the Hawks might try all of these for a period over five games with Dach, without ever settling on one. What we can be sure is that the Icehogs have a double-date with the Wolves this weekend, and you can be sure almost all the brass will be in attendance for both to see where Dach is (wouldn’t hurt for Boqvist to light it up either).

The Hawks have a mismatched roster at forward at the moment, and Dach’s presence might not clear it up. It would take some imagination, but it feels like the answer is there.

 

Baseball

All The Boys In The Band Know How To Get Down – 2019 Sox Player Reviews: Eloy Jimenez

By Adam Hess 1477 0

We continue on our adventure through the White Sox’ exclusive group of players that will actually matter in the future, this time bringing us to Eloy Jimenez and his beautiful smile. Let’s just get to it because I am excited.

2019 Stats

.267/.315/.513

Vs LHP .259 Vs RHP .270

6.0 BB% 26.6 K%

31 HR 79 RBI 69 R

.343 wOBA 117 wRC+ 1.9 fWAR

Defensive Runs Saved -11 UZR -5.1

Tell Me A Story: The White Sox played hardball with Eloy Jimenez and the service time game in 2018, leaving him in AAA even after it was obvious in May of that year, when he was in AA, that he was MLB ready. The Sox even went far enough to burn an option year (not that they will be important) by sending him down to AAA camp a few weeks before opening day. That remains a curious move to me, because they were obviously negotiating a contract extension with him at the time, so it was unnecessary. Even if he hadn’t signed that deal, they could’ve sent him down at the last second. The option won’t matter, but it was still weird.

Regardless, Eloy signed and was in the opening day lineup, deservedly. He spent most of the early season hitting in the 5-spot, and kinda bounced around between there and the 6-spot most of the season. Near the end of the year, as he really came on (more on that in a moment), he started to hit cleanup more consistently, but he only even hit higher than that twice in his 122 games, hitting second once in late May and third once in early September. He also hit seventh a handful of times, but we will pretend that didn’t happen because realistically it never will again.

Moving toward the actual on-field performance, let’s start with the bad. That’s because there isn’t much so we can get through it quickly. The defense needs work. We knew it would be an issue, but we didn’t necessarily know it would be as big of an issue as it turned out to be. There were some slight improvements if you squint hard enough, but not enough to overshadow the fact that he injured himself on an ugly defensive play – TWICE. Reports indicate he works hard with the coaching staff to improve his defense, but this may always be an issue. Still, it’s far too early to give up on Eloy as a fielder, because you’re gonna need him to be able to play out there. It’s far too soon to seriously consider a full-time shift to DH. He’s only 22, after all.

Eloy got off to a slow start, and that could be putting it quite generously. Through May, he was hitting .220/.273/.390 with a wRC+ of 75, while striking out 29.5% of the time. He also had just 6 homers in that time. I didn’t go dig up the numbers, but I remember that in those first two months pitchers were taking advantage of his aggressiveness and just eating him alive with hard sliders low and away that he just couldn’t lay off. Eloy was far too good of a hitter to ever be challenged by minor league pitching, so seeing that happen early on was slightly surprising, though not necessarily discouraging. The talent and power were still there, he just couldn’t force pitchers to throw him fastballs yet.

After those first two months, things looked up for Eloy. From June 1 to July 31, he slashed .244/.313/.527 for a 117 wRC+. The K-rate was still in excess of 27% but he was walking more and hitting the ball a lot harder, improving his hard-hit percentage from ~26% through May to 40.1% in June and July. He also hit 11 of his 31 dingers in those months.

August and September were where he really shined, though. Truthfully, the real Eloy Jimenez stood up in the final third of the season, and he smashed his way to a .308/.342/.575 line with a wRC+ of 140. His hard-hit rate climbed to a mean 42.1%, and he had an identical medium-hit rate, meaning he was making paltry contact less than a fifth of the time, a huge improvement from the early aughts where it was more than a quarter of the time. And it showed up in the stat line, as he smashed 14 of big flies in these months, which is damn near half.

In total, after the first two months of the season, Eloy hit .284/.331/.557 with a wRC+ of 131. That is, as they say very fucking good, and pretty much in line with what a lot of people expected from him. When we did our season preview roundtable for the Sox, I said I was expecting a .270 season with 30+ dingers, and I was pretty much spot on. All in all, Eloy showed every bit the promise we were dreaming his bat could have.

And oh yeah, he did this at Wrigley.

Contract: Signed through 2024 on a 6-year, $43-million contract that includes team options for 2025 and 2026. Those options reportedly push the total value of the deal close to $80-million.

Welcome Back or Boot In The Ass: Another easy keeper here. Eloy should be hitting third or fourth in this lineup on opening day for the next seven years at least, and hopefully more. Rick Hahn mentioned right field as a need area this offseason, and the Sox have been heavily linked to J.D. Martinez rumors so far (make of that what you will), so it’s safe to say they don’t view his defense as a problem and are writing him into the roster as the starting left fielder as well.

Football

Bears Offensive Rankings Are Offensive

By Brian Schmitz 1402 0

With the first trimester of the season in the rearview, let’s take a look at where the Bears offense if through the first five games. Caution, reader discretion is advised.

Yards Per Game:              Ranked 30th (266 YPG)

This stat is especially alarming because the Bears offense has actually been more effective with their backup quarterback under center. Additionally, the dominating nature of the Bears defense give this offense more time on the field to put up yards – or in the Bears case, not put up yards.

Points Per Game:            Ranked 28th (17.4 PPG)

This is a stat that has plummeted since about the middle of the 2018 season. Three major factors contribute to this: bad quarterback play, bad o-line play, and an offensive playbook that that seems like it has been figured out. It is a chicken or egg scenario: is the system bad because of the players? Or are the players bad because of the system? I don’t know, and I don’t care. I just want it figured out.

Yards Per Play:                  Ranked 30th (4.5 YPP)

This number is easily explainable and falls squarely on the lack of a running game. Consistently being in a 2nd and long position very much limits your playbook. RPO and zone running plays are just not working and I anticipate a change in aspects of this coming out of the bye week.

1st Downs Per Game       Ranked 27th (17.4 1DPG)

What we can deduct from this stat is that Bears are really not a threat on plays 10 yards or longer. A 10-yard play gets you a second set of downs, which in turn, keeps opposing defenses on the field longer, thus equaling a high level of fatigue. When you are averaging only 17 1st downs per game, you are facing a fresh defense on about ½ of your possessions.

3rd Down Percentage     Ranked 23rd (35%)

As we all know, Mitch Trubisky is not an overly accurate passer. So anytime you are facing a 3rd and medium/long, you are looking at routes that are not in Mitch’s 5-yard comfort zone. Add to this a porous line, and you can clearly see why the team struggles to convert 3rd downs.

Penalties                             Ranked 7th Highest (43 Penalties)

Like all coaches, Matt Nagy talks about discipline ad nauseam. And while 43 Penalties are a big number, this is more of an NFL officiating issue than it is a Bears issue. However, don’t take for granted that the Bears O-Line is among the most penalized units in the league. This reasoning behind this is simple: when you are not very good, you get beat, which then makes linemen hold. False starts and delay of games have been minimal, so this is more of talent issue with the linemen than it is an overall team discipline issue.

When looking at these numbers as a whole, the Bears are dreadfully comparable to the Dolphins, Redskins, Jets, and Bengals – four teams that share a combined two wins. And before you speak about the strength of the respective defenses the Bears have faced so far this year, please note keep in mind the only defensive juggernaut this team has faced is the Minnesota Vikings.

Coming off the off week, I am hoping we will see far less RPO and zone runs – the Bears are talented enough in the backfield that getting outside the tackles may be the plan that resurrects this offense. The NFL remains a league in which you have to be successful in the run game to be successful throwing the ball. Very few teams are good enough to be successful being one dimensional; the Bears are not one of them.

My biggest concern is that Matt Nagy is too proud to change his offensive philosophy in the run game and will keep trying to make chicken salad from a chicken shit line. Nagy is a guy who experienced much success and admiration in his rookie year as head coach. How that the sky is falling on him and he is getting figured out, it’s up to him to counter-punch and get this team in the end zone.

**In an effort to give a more accurate picture of the Bears offense, the above-noted rankings were taking prior to this past week’s games.

Football

Week 7 – Saints vs. Bears: QB Study – Bridge Over Troubled Water

By Tony Martin 2041 0

Worst title I’ve ever given an article? Yeah, it’s up there but the season is still young, folks!

This week the Bears were gifted a game against a high-octane offense with a backup quarterback under center. Teddy Bridgewater is playing his 6th game this year, his 5th start running the Saints attack. The first question is, who is Teddy Bridgewater? Pick 32 of the 2014 NFL Draft, that’s who. The game managing QB who made his money handing off to Adrian Peterson and throwing to, uh, I’m not really sure. Is Mike Wallace a real person or just a collective fever dream we all went through together, like that one year where Brandon Lloyd was king?

Teddy Bridgewater was the 2014 Rookie of the Year as sponsored by Pepsi and voted on by fans, which is somehow different than the NFL AP vote which pegged Odell Beckham Jr as the best offensive rookie that year. The NFL AP made the better decision, but I still love and respect the concept of the fan vote, since this isn’t the NBA and Yao Ming can’t keep being selected to All Star games even though he didn’t play (Free Hong Kong, while we’re here). 2014 seems like such a different time, and Bridgewater’s path here has been so long and winding that it’s almost surreal to think about OBJ and Teddy coming into the league at the same time. Shit, Teddy was in the Pro Bowl the next season!

…and then you know the rest, I’m assuming. HOWEVER, my bandmate Katie reads these articles for some reason and she has no clue what I’m talking about most of the time, so this one’s for the Katies out there. Bridgewater suffered a non-contact knee injury in practice that was so bad the doctors thought his leg would have to be amputated. He dislocated his knee, tore his ACL, and had significant structural damage. The words that doctors used to describe it sound like metal band song titles:

“Grotesque”
“Mangled”
“Battle wound”
“Worst knee dislocation I’ve seen in sports”

I reached out to my buddy who is a Physical Therapist and asked him his take, and he responded by telling me that a knee dislocation like that can destroy your entire leg and compromise all four ligaments, and the fact that he has anything resembling stability in that knee to this day is beyond him. Shouts out to my homie Virak for the insider tip.

Teddy recovered from an injury that had people fearing he’d never walk again and has now started four games, three years and a handful of months removed from the kneepocalypse. It’s really hard to not root for this guy, but he is at best a replacement-level QB on a team loaded with weapons.

The numbers are nice (69% completion percentage, 7/2 TD/INT ratio), but he isn’t passing the eye test (trust me, I have a number of Saints players in fantasy leagues). Four of those seven scores were against a Tampa Bay defense that plays with the urgency of a pug who just walked a mile and a half. He’s been hot and cold. He was stellar against Tampa Bay and Seattle, and not good against Dallas and Jacksonville.

His stats will give Bears fans Shane Matthews/Kyle Orton flashbacks. His average completed pass travels 4.5 yards in the air. He throws what Football Outsiders defines as a “bad throw” 12% of the time, and he does NOT go deep. The Bears might have an advantage here, with Eddie Jackson lurking on some of those crossing routes underneath. Bridgewater still hasn’t mastered the Drew Brees classic “know exactly which option route Alvin Kamara is going to run and hitting him for a 12 yard gain six times a drive”, but he has weapons.

Teddy is a game manager with an outstanding backstory, but the Bears match up well here against him. If the pass rush can shake him or make him get rid of the ball quickly, I like their odds. Hopefully the defense doesn’t have to send too much extra pressure to get after the plucky Saints QB, because the big play potential is there if Kamara or Michael Thomas find themselves in man coverage with no safety help. Make no mistake, the Saints have some burners and they can turn a short toss into a big gain. Their screen game is tight, and Ted Ginn can stretch the field. If the line can get to Teddy, the Bears have a chance to slow this offense down dramatically.

Baseball

We Know Your Nature – 2019 Cubs Player Reviews: Ian Happ

By Sam Fels 1470 0

I don’t think there’s a player I’m more confounded by than Ian Happ. And that’s because one week I’ll feel like he’s not getting a real chance, and then the next week I’ll think he’s never going to be anything, and then the one after that I’ll be in the middle before starting the whole cycle over again. It’s dizzying. See if we can’t make sense of it today with some separation from the season.

2019 Stats

58 gams, 156 PA

.264/.333/.564

9.6 BB%  25.0 K% 

11 HR  25 RBI

127 wRC+  .368 wOBA  .898 OPS

2.9 Defensive Runs Saved  1.5 WAR

Tell Me A Story: And that’s the thing. Look at those numbers for a third of a season. They’re really good. Like, really good. Even the defense! And yet didn’t you spend at least a portion of Happ’s time in Chicago this year thinking, “It’s never going to happen for this guy. Yet another 1st round miss! SAD!”  Of course you did. We all did. And yet there it is in black and white. He didn’t miss. So just what the fuck is going on here?

With Happ you almost have to go week-to-week or even game-by-game this year to try and get a handle on it. He was called up in late July, got five straight starts though only got two hits in them. But he did walk a ton in those. He then wouldn’t get a start for another week (huh?), earning them after doing some really nice work off the bench (a theme that would continue for the rest of the season). He would get a start the next six games, and in those he pretty much mashed, going 8-for-21 with three homers and only a few strikeouts. Happ started the next three games, only getting one hit, and then only get a start in three of the next eight. It was at this point that Anthony Rizzo got hurt the first time, and Happ would essentially get three straight starts at first, including the sweep of the Mets where he homered of Syndergaard.

It’s in the next stretch where Happ went cold, which seems to have defined his season at least in Maddon’s mind and probably mine. Happ would go 11-for-51 over the next couple weeks, starting either every other game at first and then every third and then none at all. And then of course Happ lit up the Pirates and Cardinals in the last week to give his numbers something of a shine. The games didn’t matter to the Cubs, but they did matter to the Cardinals, and it was only two games, so what the fuck do we make of it? If anything I’m more confused than I was. No one said it would be easy.

What we can say is that Happ had a rough couple weeks in there, which happens to everyone, and had it come earlier in the season or the Cubs with a comfortable lead in the division (and watching the Cardinals in the playoffs it’s even more galling that the Cubs somehow boned this so hard), Joe Maddon probably would just have let Happ play out of it. But given the urgency and time, he couldn’t. Or wouldn’t. I’m not sure. Neither are you. We’re sinking deeper and deeper here.

What we can say is that Happ did cut down his strikeouts this year, from being well over a third of the time to a quarter. That’s still not great, but you can live with it. And frankly in just these 58 games, he put up the same WAR he did in all of 2018 and nearly the same amount as 2017 which the Cubs are basing so much emotion on in the first place.

And while the Cubs harf-harf-harf about more contact, here they have a player who did make more contact. Happ raised his contact% from 77% in ’17 and 70% in ’18 to 82% in his cameo this year. That’s just a tick below league average, which for the Cubs is a goddamn bonanza. Is that real or just a splurge in limited playing time? No one knows, and our picture remains muddied and our lives unclear and the answers farther away. Eat Arby’s.

On the downside, Happ saw a major drop in the amount of line-drives he hit this time around, to about 15%. And an increase in grounders, which isn’t good. His exit-velocity dipped a touch as well. But again, given the sample size, it’s hard to know if this is a trend or just a spike or something in between. All we have is fog.

The book on Happ was that you could simply blow fastballs up in the zone by him all day, and he would murder you on low pitches. The latter still stayed basically the same, as Happ slugged .709 against sinkers this year. The real improvement for Happ came on breaking pitches. Where in the previous two years, he had only managed a .181 average on sliders and .225 on curves, those numbers this year were .529 and .421. He wasn’t cheating to the fastball and getting left out to dry and out ahead by anything.

Were high fastballs still a problem? Yes, of course. But Happ did show improvement in getting to them as a left-handed hitter in the middle or inside. Still not great, but moving in the right direction.

Perhaps the real upset here is that Happ graded out really well with the glove at second and in center. We think of him as a butcher in center, and the very few times they planted him between Castellanos and Schwarber we were pretty much watching with a book on our head. But the numbers suggest he was pretty good out there, with very positive UZR and UZR-150 numbers. I’m just telling you what they say.

Picture is not so clear now, is it?

Contract: Team Control, Arb Eligible in 2021

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: When the season ended, Happ was probably a poster boy for a lot (and maybe even some in the front office) that think he’s the type of hitter the Cubs need to get away from. But that’s just not the case, or it wasn’t in 2019. Now, does that mean he should automatically be back? Not exactly. Given that he’s under team control, his pure athleticism that can have him deployed all over the diamond, the power that we know is there, and the at least somewhat encouraging signs of his abbreviated season in the Bigs, he might have some trade value and could help the Cubs get an arm they need.

That said, with the Cubs priorities having to be pitching and really pitching alone given what’s out there and what we think their budget constraints might be, and given that Happ makes pretty much nothing, he’s also extremely valuable to the Cubs. Or could be. At worst, he could start the season flipping with David Bote at second to keep the seat warm for Nico Hoerner while also getting starts in center. Again, he might be really improving out there. There are basically no center fielders to be gotten in free agency, unless you want to roll the dice on Brett Gardner‘s career-year, and you probably shouldn’t. Whatever trades the Cubs are going to make pretty much have to be for pitching. And if Happ stubs his toe again and the team needs someone in center, they’re more likely to find it at the deadline than in free agency.

Happ only just turned 25, which means he’s just about to enter his prime or just has. Yeah, the pitfalls there and his career feels like it’s careening along a mountain road with no guardrails. It could end with a beautiful view…or it could have a date with some very jagged rocks at very high speeds.

To me, Happ does too much–or has the potential to do too much–to not take one more look in 2020. There may be more answers here than we first thought.