Hockey

Game #69 – Blues vs. Hawks: Hedley Lamarr’s Nitwits, Halfwits, And Dimwits

By Sam Fels 1016

The Blues’ Suddenly Plentiful System – It is truly a bewildering state when the Hawks can only bring up odd-shaped bowling balls like Dennis Gilbert or Matthew Highmore or pick off Nick Seeler from waivers and wait too long to try Lucas Carlsson, while the Blues keep unearthing a Robert Thomas or Zach Sanford or Ivan Barbashev or Vince Dunn. It was the Blues who used to bring up chucklehead after chucklehead. And now they get it. And the Hawks don’t. And we’re cold and alone.

Zach Sanford – Maybe the Hawks will try covering him this time around. Might be worth a shot.

John Hamm – Hey, someone has to say something bad about him. We’ll take the bullet. Handsome devil that he is.

Hockey

Game #69 – Blues vs. Hawks: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels 1232

Blues

Notes: Faulk has been out of late, though there’s some hope he could play tonight…Binnington had a rough one against New Jersey so we might get Jay Gallon tonight, not that that’s been a breather for anyone this season…The Blues haven’t gotten a point from their bottom six since the Hawks last saw them, which probably means five goals for them tonight…

Hawks

Notes: Crow will make his 9th straight start, and the second time this week he’ll play three games in four days. Funny how they didn’t want him to start at all like, a month ago…Boqvist is likely to play, but Carlsson is not…

Hockey

Game #68 – Hawks vs. Red Wings Preview: And Now The Sitter

By Sam Fels 1443

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 31-28-8   Red Wings 15-48-5

PUCK DROP: 6:30pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago, NHL Network

THE TRULY LOST: Winging It In Motown

They can’t fuck this up, right?

Whether or not you believe the Hawks have a shot at making the playoffs, they believe it. They kind of have to, but hey, they’ve won four in a row here and have a great chance to make it five. There’s a ton of home games. So you can see where if it’s your job, you psych yourself into it.

And even if it’s on the second of a back-to-back, you can’t get more of a layup than this. It sucks for a lot of reasons that the Wings moved to the East, but one is that we never got the reverse of when they were the all=conquering model of the league and the Hawks were the suckiest bunch of sucks that ever sucked and we essentially begged for mercy. The Wings were still a playoff team when they fucked off–or were ordered off in the most glorious way possible–and now that their a post-modern interpretation of sadness, the Hawks kind of are too.

Except not nearly as bad. The Hawks have twice as many points as this team. That’s hard to fathom. There’s 23 points to the next worst team, the Kings. 23! You can’t be more adrift than this. Their goal-difference is -121. They average getting beat by two goals per game. It’s the worst goal-differential this century, and they still have some games to play. Alex Biega is playing top pairing minutes here. They’re playing seven d-men and five of them assuredly suck ass. Their special teams both rank 30th. There’s literally nothing this team does well.

They’re paying Justin Abdelkader $4.2M for his three assists. Frans Nielsen lives in a mortuary and is taking home over $5M. Darren Helm and Valttieri Fillpula apparently still exist. I could keep going, but my lungs are turning into mush just reading this shit.

So yeah, you can’t lose this. Somehow the Wings have found an opponent that was breathing chloroform at intermission 15 times this year, and an additional five where they came to soon enough to at least win in OT. There’s no point in breaking this down or saying what the Hawks have to do. They have to show up and not completely stub their toes, fingers, nose, and frontal lobes. They spotted this team a two-goal lead at the UC and then blew them away after they came to. Dylan Sikura scored against them. Need we say more?

This is the game in hand the Hawks have on some teams, and you can’t ask for a better one. Some other results go their way and they could be within two points of the last wild card spot, though with a pile of invalids to hop over to get there. Whatever. Just do it.

Hockey

Game #68 – Hawks vs. Red Wings Spotlight: Die Like Dylan Larkin, A Seizure On The Barroom Floor

By Sam Fels 1122

You have to hand it to Steve Yzerman and the Wings. This is how you tank. It’s rare to see this hardcore of a tank in the NHL, outside of Ottawa at least, but the Wings have managed it. As flawed and infuriating as the Hawks are, they have twice as many points as the Wings. Twice. You might clamor for something like this in Chicago, but take a good look at the Wings and decide if that’s what you really want. And remember that the Wings haven’t had players the quality of Kane, Toews, Keith, or Crawford to jettison in years. It takes a while just to get here.

Part of this rebuild is identifying what is going to be on the team when it matters again, no matter how far off that is. The foundation must be ground in something, as General Zod told you. Filip Hronek seems to be something the Wings are banking on, and with cause. Tyler Bertuzzi is another, though probably farther down the lineup in the years to come. Anthony Mantha is already 25, so that’s questionable.

The biggest pillar the Wings are selling is that Dylan Larkin will be the #1 center when they’re ready to not be a reminder of how life can go horribly wrong. What this post presupposes is…maybe he isn’t?

It is hard to judge fully what Larkin is, simply because he’s played on dogshit teams for so long. Last year he put up a 73-point campaign which pretty much nothing on his wings. And yet that very well might be his ceiling, as he won’t approach that this season and again he’s getting top center minutes at evens and on the power play. At some point, if you’re truly a diamond you’ll shine through the muck, as it were.

Our argument falls flat though when you see what kind of relative numbers Larkin is putting up, at least metrically. He six points above the team’s Corsi-percentage rate this year, after being nearly 10 above it last year. His relative xG% is 8.65 above this campaign after 9.62 last year. So even if he’s still in the red overall, he’s doing far better than the wayward and destitute that comprise his teammates.

Larkin’s individual shots, chances, and attempts this year are all down from last year, but that again could be from playing with no one who can create things for him instead of the other way around. We won’t know until he gets some actual talent around him, which might come in the form of Elmer Soderblom, Moritz Seider, Filip Zadina, or Alex Lafreniere if the Wings end up with the 1st pick in June. That’s the hope around there.

And it still kind of has to be Larkin. Lafreniere is a wing, and the rest of the system is much stronger on wingers or d-men than it is on centers.  Joe Veleno is the just about the only center in the system that’s going to make it to Detroit soon, and he doesn’t project to displace Larkin. There isn’t anyone coming to take Larkin’s job anytime soon.

Still, Larkin doesn’t really look like a premier scorer. He’s got one 30+ goal season, but has broken 20 only one other time in five seasons. His career SH% or chances he gets don’t suggest anything more than a 20-25 goal guy. Is he a great playmaker? Doesn’t appear to be, though full judgement will come when his wingers aren’t consistently dizzy or looking for directions. He might just be a #2 center.

Depends on what projection Yzerman has here, but the ballsy call might be to at least see what’s out there for Larkin. He’ll be 24 next year and on a very reasonable $6.1M hit for the next two seasons. There are a lot of teams that could use him as a #2 center (Bruins as Krejci ages? Sharks for when Thornton retires? Stars?), and the Wings might need more than they’ve already got. They’re years from competing anyway. It wouldn’t be the biggest shock, is all we’re saying. Though with this draft as weak as it’s considered at the moment, adding more picks in it doesn’t have quite the appeal.

That would take some brass balls. This isn’t just the only player who’s been worth watching on the team for years. This is a kid who grew up in Michigan, wanting to play for the Wings his whole life and then became captain. You can see why the Wings want to build everything around him. It’s just a question of if they really can.

Hockey

Game #68 – Hawks vs. Red Wings: Hedley Lamarr’s Mugs, Pugs, And Thugs

By Sam Fels 1102

Who The Fuck Are These People? – It was one thing when the Wings fucked off to the Eastern Conference because their precious fans couldn’t stay up past 10pm so they could be up early for the jobs they don’t have, which essentially ruined this rivalry. Also it helped them keep their stupid little playoff streak alive a couple more years so they could get labeled by the Bruins or Lightning a couple times, and they must be so proud. But now that they’re in a full rebuild, we don’t have any idea who any of these jokers they’re running out there are. Or if we do we know enough to not care. Alex Biega? Fabbri Robbie? Patrik Nemeth? These guys have go a far ways north just to get a shoulder shrug. We’d try and build up bile for Dylan Larkin…but really who cares? He’s never played game that mattered and probably won’t for another three years.

Trevor Daley – Dumbest player in the league who plays with chew in his lip. How fucking gross is that? Could it be any more Canadian?

Anthony Mantha – Apparently the Wings always have to have some mule that scores goals for no reason. So here’s Mantha, who skates like a building but yet piles up goals no one will remember. On pace for an prime “Yeah, but who gives a shit?” career.

Hockey

Game #68 – Hawks vs. Red Wings: Lineups & How They Were Built

By Sam Fels 937

Hawks

Notes: Carlsson left the game early last night after taking a shot to the ear, and you would think in the name of precaution and also this being the fucking Wings the Hawks could get away with sitting him for a night. Then again, Nick Seeler might be just that bad…Both Keith and Murphy played over 25 minutes last night. Some of that is being down to five d-men for half the game, but some of that is keeping Boqvist far too sheltered. He’s playing well…If you can’t give Subban a start against this collection of nitwits, then what’s even the point?

Red Wings

Notes: WHO?!…The Wings went with seven d-men last game so we’re assuming they’ll do so again…even if six of these guys suck to high heaven…Lindstrom is not Nicklas’s kid, but you can be sure the Wings drafted him to fool their fans into think he was…Larkin has nine points in his last seven games, and that’s the only line on this outfit that has any pulse whatsoever…

Baseball

Yes Movement – 2020 Chicago Cubs Player Previews: Corpse You Up!

By Sam Fels 1245

Well, seems pretty convenient to do this on the day that FanGraphs essentially did it for me. But that’s how the cookie crumbles. There’s a lot riding on Ian Happ, and it seems a shaky boat to put your inventory on. But that’s how the Cubs wanted it. And maybe it’s just crazy enough to work. If Happ hits, the lineup goes at least six deep with at least solid contributor Heyward behind it and dude that’s totally fine in David Bote. If Happ doesn’t hit…then you get more Albert Almora. No one wants that. Not even Albert Almora. Or Peter Criss.

So let’s go through it.

Ian Happ 2019

58 games, 156 PA

.264/.333/.564

.368 wOBA  127 wRC+

9.6 BB%  25.0 K%

2.9 Defensive Runs

1.5 fWAR

What this article only makes passing mention of is that before that last week of the season, or last two weeks, Happ’s numbers were pretty ugly. That they could swing so wildly with just a handful of ABs is proof of what playing just a third of the season can do. Maybe that last week in an indicator of what he can do. Maybe the month before it is a better one. Maybe that first couple weeks he was up, when he did hit as well, are. Who the fuck knows? Still, in a third of a season he was worth that WAR, which would have him running at a 4.0-WAR season over a full campaign. If he is indeed that guy. Which no one knows.

It’s gone unnoticed, but Happ was actually a plus-center fielder last year, which means he was better out there than Almora was, and that’s supposedly the one bonus of having Almora. Now, I don’t think Almora is actually a negative outfielder, and last year was just one of those things, but the improvement in Happ’s game there should be noted. Again, it’s a small sample, but we’re talking about a guy who’s only 25 and only gaining experience at a position he’s barely played for three seasons. He’s never going to be prime Lorenzo Cain out there, but he doesn’t have to be given Wrigley’s tight environs. Only Pittsburgh is a center field he’ll spend extended time in that’s cavernous, so he just has to be fine. And he’s been that. And could be more.

YES! YES! YES!: For Happ to have a successful campaign, it’s not that he has to be what he was the last week of the season when he was Mike Trout for a week. He doesn’t even have to be quite what his overall numbers were last year over a full season, but that would be nice. And he’s capable of that. He’s also capable of being left-handed Almora. But we’ll get to that.

As Tony Wolfe points out here, when Happ gets the bat to the ball, he’s as good as there is. The contact is loud and proud. So it’s about can he make more contact. And as Wolfe says, Happ swung more without increasing his swinging-strike percentage, which is encouraging. So it would seem to be the key for Happ this year is finding strikes and not being perfect, and attacking the ones he gets no matter when he gets them.

Of course, it won’t take long for pitchers to discover that they can get Happ high in the zone:

He was also woeful against fastballs in general. He can’t simply let fastballs at the top of the zone pass because he’ll be down 0-2 all day and all year. Much like Schwarber, if he can just start taking those high fastballs the other way enough to bring pitchers down, he could go bonkers. But it would seem his entire 2020 is going to hinge on what he does at the top of the zone.

You’re A B+ Player: The path for Happ to fall down the wishing well, and hence put his entire Cubs career into oblivion likely, is he never catches up to those high fastballs and his new swing-heavy approach does start to lead to more whiffs. Happ is always going to have a somewhat bloated K-rate, just like the rest of this team. But at 20-25% that’s manageable. Anything above that it’s not, because his greater swing-tendencies will not provide the walks to balance it out. Pitchers will start attacking him up in the zone from jump street, so we’ll find out early I’m sure.

If he can’t hit, the Cubs will probably run for the theoretical better defense of Almora or stuffing Souza into right and Heyward into center if either of them start hitting. Or Bryant into right and Bote over to third if one of Kipnis, Descalso, or Hoerner hits. But look at how much moves and how thin things get if Happ doesn’t make center his. It’s all a problem.

Dragon Or Fickle?: I’m not expecting a 127 wRC+ for a year. But I would make a bet on 115-120, which will do the Cubs more than fine. I also would wager that Happ’s defense continues to improve to the point where he’s a plus out there all season, not just in spot duty in the season’s last two months. Happ made a big adjustment in pushing himself to swing more without sending his strikeouts to the moon, so getting to high fastballs doesn’t feel like it should be something beyond him. And really, he’s on the same trajectory as Schwarber. First round pick, big splash at first, and then two years of figuring it out when the league picked them apart. Happ didn’t have the knee injury in the middle. We saw what happened with Schwarber is his fourth year of playing at the top level. Perhaps it’s Happ’s turn?

MAIL YOU HOME TO MOMMA!

Hockey

Game #67 – Oilers vs. Hawks Preview: Fully Operational

By Sam Fels 1367

vs.

RECORDS: Oilers 36-23-8   Hawks 30-28-8

PUCK DROP: 7:30pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago

SO VERY COLD: Oilers Nation

I suppose this is something of the pivot game for the Hawks. You would assume, though that could be a very silly thing to do, that they’ll get the win in Detroit tomorrow night that’s on offer for everyone. Another embarrassing effort against the Blues waits on Sunday (there’s been three already). But the Hawks can turn that into something of a free hit with a win over the Oilers tonight. That would also be four wins in row, with a chance of five in Michigan, which would allow the Hawks to say they’re “charging.” That’s if you buy into all this.

Also, the Oilers aren’t a flu-ridden Ducks team missing its top three d-men (who then went on to beat the Avs in Denver last night, because hockey is here to prove your rules are for shit).

That doesn’t mean we can tell you what the Oilers are. We have no idea. We were sure they would have collapsed by now. We thought Mike Smith would sink them. Or McDavid’s injury. Or a complete lack of forwards. Or just being the Oilers. And yet here they are, not only entrenched in the playoff race but only two points behind the Knights for the Pacific lead with a game in hand. Perhaps it’s just the Pacific Division that makes you question the rules you followed.

So what are they doing here. Special teams, special teams, and special teams again. The Oilers power play is clicking at 30%. They have the second-best penalty kill in the league. They have 56 power play goals, and 30 power play goals against. When you win the special teams battle pretty much every night, you don’t have to be that good at even-strength. And don’t you worry, the Oilers aren’t really.

Then again, it also helps to have two MVP-worthy players centering your top two lines.

The Oilers finally separated Draisaitl and McDavid this year, and have watched Draisaitl carry the team in McDavid’s absence and become the front-runner for the Hart himself. He leads the league in scoring by 13 points…over McDavid. He’s on pace to blow by Kucherov’s 128 last year, which we thought was a number that came from the moon then. And McDavid is McDavid. Seeing as how they’re going to the playoffs, you’d be hard-pressed to find an opposing blue line that would be looking forward to this challenge.

The Oilers sought to shore up their pretty sad forward situation at the deadline by bringing in Andreas Athanasiou and Tyler Ennis, who apparently that guy who plays for all teams at pickup games in any sport. Raise your hand if you knew Ennis was still in the league. He wasn’t, he was in Ottawa. Anyway, he’s currently getting the sweetheart spot of playing alongside McDavid.

Which puts McDavid in the strange spot of being the line you don’t worry about as much. Since RNH-Draisaitl-Yamamoto have been put together they’ve kicked a hole it he world. Athanasiou is currently being used to give the bottom six anything resembling a pulse, so it’s a stronger outfit than the Hawks couldn’t overcome last time they met. And that one didn’t have McDavid, which kicked off that horror show Western Canada swing.

No changes for the Hawks tonight, and nor should there be. CCYP is making noise about starting Crawford in both halves of this back-to-back, but you’d think there couldn’t possibly be a softer landing for Malcolm Subban to make his Hawks debut than against former-Scum.

The Hawks couldn’t deal with the Oilers power play last time, so it will be imperative to stay out of the box as much as possible tonight. No one can deal with this power play. But hey, the Preds stayed out of the box pretty much against this team on Monday, and they gave up seven even-strength goals. So yeah.

But if the Hawks want to claim they have one last charge in them, and they’re on it now, they have to get this one.