Sam Fels – Page 137 – Faxes from Uncle Dale

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Tonight I’m Gonna Rock You Tonight – January 2nd

By Sam Fels January 2, 2019 1085 0

First Screen Viewing

Sharks vs. Avalanche – 8:30

Every time I think the Sharks are getting ready to cook, they do something like give up eight to the Flames that would have seen them move back into first, or lose to the Coyotes, or find a way to lose to the Kings. Their problems are clear, in that Martin Jones is turning into Denis Lemieux, and if this is their only season with Erik Karlsson (doubtful), then they’re going to have to have serious talks about what they’re going to do in the crease. The Avs have also sputtered of late, as if you can call losing to the Hawks twice at home in eight days anything else. When their top line isn’t motoring, this is what you get. They’re still comfortably in a playoff spot, as their four points clear of falling out of one. Both will see the turn in calendar as a chance to start anew. And both probably need to.

Second Screen Viewing

Oilers vs. Coyotes – 8:30

It really is a shame that Brandon Manning’s debut won’t happen at home, because you feel like one of his patented mistakes in a corner would send the Oilers faithful into hysteria, as they finally seem ready to turn on Peter Chiarelli full stop. But it’ll come in the outpost of Glendale, where he can make his tree-falling act in a place with no one to hear it. It’ll just be nice to watch it happen to someone else.

Other Games

Canucks vs. Senators – 6pm

Flames vs. Red Wings – 6pm

Penguins vs. Rangers – 6pm

Devils vs. Stars – 7:30

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At Some Point You’ve Got To Be The Boss

By Sam Fels January 2, 2019 2175 0

It seems a touch pointless to write this now, as Cam Ward was fine in the Winter Classic. He wasn’t great, and perhaps a more athletic goalie would have gotten to Bergeron’s equalizer in the second. But it came on a bad bounce, which is more poor luck than poor play. But it’s the fact that Ward started at all that’s worrying, if only slightly.

This of course could be a case of the Hawks trying to “showcase” Ward in case he can be flogged for a mid-round pick at the deadline. Except teams have 11 years of data on Ward at this point. And if the Hawks had figured anything out with him this season that would lead anyone to believe he’s changed from his Carolina days, then “.888” would be in big, flashing, neon lights to dissuade from that notion. Cam Ward isn’t going anywhere, and if he does it’s because some GM started to drip brain fluid out of their ear and didn’t think much of tossing a 7th-round pick aside. Let’s just say I’m skeptical that was or is the case going forward.

What bothers me, as we’ve repeatedly stated, is that there was no case to start Ward yesterday. Whether the Hawks genuinely believe they can still salvage this season or they’re already turning their eyes to tomorrow, Collin Delia is the choice in either case. And if you think you have to have this game, because it’s your showcase game on national TV and all that, Delia is again the better choice. He’s playing better, he might be the goalie of the future, and on it goes. There’s no equation you can go through that doesn’t have “x = Delia.”

Jeremy Colliton‘s quotes of “guys respecting Ward in the room” and “veteran status” don’t really help much, either. And it’s not only because it’s giving me Dusty Baker “gotta be fair to Holly, dude” flashbacks. Because in his short stint, Colliton has yet to prove he can play hardball with any veteran player aside from Chris Kunitz or Brandon Manning, and that’s batting practice. Cam Ward shouldn’t draw any more water than those two do or did, and yet here we are.

During their streak of incompetence (the second one, in case you were wondering), Colliton never pulled either Crawford or Ward even when they were giving up multiple goals early, and bad ones at times. A goalie-pull isn’t always on the goalie either, and is sometimes used as commentary on how horseshit the skaters have been. That switch was never flipped, though even we said it might look a little awkward for a coach barely in the job to hang Crawford out to dry with all he’s been through. But it certainly was an option to be used, and Colliton never did. And things just got worse. Even Crow’s confidence can be broken. It felt at the time that Colliton didn’t have any answers, or was afraid, or was simply frozen.

So what does that mean for the harder calls that are coming if Colliton can’t even bring himself to sit Ward for yesterday? Gustav Forsling‘s constant nosebleeds will give Coach Cool Youth Pastor some cover when Henri Jokiharju returns from the WJC, but the Brent Seabrook reckoning is coming at some point soon. Does Colliton have the tires to tell that accomplished of a player he’s in a suit for the night? For repeated nights? And that said, what would be the pairings if you sit Forsling? Are you flipping Jokiharju to his off-side to keep the other pairs that are working in tact? Seems a bit much on the kid.

Duncan Keith is still getting the most ice-time, and he was awful yesterday. Connor Murphy and Carl Dahlstrom have taken the hard shifts off of him at least, but they should be creeping up on him in time on ice and they’re not yet. Is it Colliton who will tell Keith he’s a second-pairing player? Do you believe that?

At some point, you have to the coach, no matter your age and experience. The Hawks put Colliton in a near-impossible situation, but that doesn’t mean he can ignore it. Telling Ward to do one would be a nice start, because whatever the players say they know that Delia right now is the better option, and the players want to win every game despite what the team’s aims might be. It would be a good first step to the harder talks and decisions that are coming. But you have to start making these choices first.

Everything Else

Game #42 – Bruins vs. Hawks Spotlight: Burrito, Doritos, Fiesta, Pastrnak

By Sam Fels January 1, 2019 1575 0

We have a working theory around the lab, we’ve kicked it around for years. While some will tell you that Brad Marchand in the best left wing in the game, we tend to think he’s pretty much a product of getting to play with the best two-way center in the game in Patrice Bergeron his entire career. Before this season, Marchand had spent all of four minutes away from Bergeron in his entire career. It would be impossible to separate the two, let’s say. Thanks to Bergeron’s early-season injury, we got a glimpse (and Don Cheadle didn’t even arrive!) of what Marchand is like without #37. It wasn’t pretty.

David Pastrnak needn’t worry about such labels. He’s the real deal.

Pastrnak’s 92 goals the past three seasons rank him fifth in the league in that time. It’s more than McDavid, or Tavares, or Crosby. His 198 points rank 13th, ahead of names like Draisaitl, Panarin, and Gaudreau. He doesn’t seem to get nearly the pub that others in the highest-echelon of scorers get, but that’s what he is.

And what’s more is that he hasn’t always needed Bergeron to produce. Whereas Marchand’s metrics crater without his center, Pastrnak’s hold steady. While together they produce a nearly 60% CF%–and over three years that’s just stupid–Pastrnak’s away from Bergeron’s hold at 50%. This season that difference is smaller at 57% to 53%. Over his career, the scoring-chance percentage difference for Pastrnak with and without Bergeron is 60%-50%. It’s the same this year, though Bergeron has the same spilts without #88. The high-danger chances are the closest marks, both at 55%-53% split over Pasta’s career and this year. For comparison’s sake, Marchand’s numbers dip into the 40% ranger without Bergeron.

Pastrnak isn’t the deadliest shooter you’ll find, as his 14% or thereabouts shooting-percentage doesn’t have him anywhere near the top marksmen. He’s 11th in total shots, so he gets there through volume, averaging over three shots per game. And when you’re skating with Bergeron most of the time, you’ll be in the right end enough. Pastrnak should probably be shooting even more, but defers to his linemates.

That does leave this Bruins team in something of a conundrum. They clearly lack scoring beyond the top line, and that’s if David Backes is in the lineup as he can’t do much anymore. It’s clear that Marchand needs Bergeron, but would slotting Pastrnak with David Krejci on the second line give opponents more to think about? The Bruins can one-line-ending-the-world their way through the regular season, and that’ll probably see them easily gain the third playoff spot in the Atlantic, though they’re still tangled up with Montreal and Boston for that and the wild card spots.

But when the spring rolls around, can you beat Tampa or Toronto with just one line? The Leafs might not have a defense, but they can throw Matthews or Tavares and Bergeron and at least hope to break even, and then watch their greater depth run the Bruins over. That’s basically what happened against the Lightning last year. Would Pastrnak-Krejci at least be a different question to ask teams? The Bruins might have to think about it.

Considering the numbers he puts up, Pastrnak’s $6.6M hit is a borderline steal. Which is good, because the Bs are clearly going to need to bring in another winger or two in the summer if they want another run with Bergeron and Chara still around. At only 22, it’s a little frightening to think where Pastrnak could go from here. If the Bruins have to move on from this era to the next one soon, it’s clear whom they are going to do that around.

Game #42 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #42 – Bruins vs. Hawks Q&A: The Mighty Marshall DOY

By Sam Fels January 1, 2019 1516 0

Days Of Y’Orr was once a great hockey site. But like anything that burns so brightly, it can’t last forever. Out of the rubble though we still have Marshall. You can follow him on Twitter @MarshallDOY.

Three quarters of the B’s roster caught the plague this season at some point, or so it seems. So how does Bruce Cassidy keep it afloat?

The short answer is that Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak are just really, really good. Even without Patrice Bergeron for a massive stretch, the Bruins managed to go 9-6-1 thanks to the play of the two wingers. It helps that people forget how good David Krejci is. He’s been perpetually saddled by mediocre linemates since Jarome Iginla‘s departure, but while filling in for Bergeron, he managed 14 points in 16 games.

Despite using 12 different defensemen this year, including John Moore and Steven Kampfer, the Bruins have actually allowed the fewest even strength goals in the league. It defies logic. They are getting above-average goaltending, but let’s discuss that.

Jaro Halak seems to have at least earned a splitting of starts with Duke Tuuke’m, if not the #1 job overall. Do you expect that to continue or will he return to being Jaro Halak soon?

Right now, Halak gives the Bruins the best chance to win games. Tuukka Rask, however, will always give them the best chance to win a championship. Rask has always been a feast or famine goalie; he’ll drop some major turds, but then look like a Vezina contender for months at a time. What’s worrying me this year is that he hasn’t gotten enough of a chance to get into a rhythm in favor of riding the hot hand. It’s a great short-term plan, but Halak hasn’t won a playoff series in about a decade. If Rask can’t re-gain his crease soon, it does not bode well for the team’s postseason hopes.

Is Charlie McAvoy good? Other than being a moon-faced mouth-breather, we know the offense is there but every time we look up he seems to be in the trail position defensively.

I don’t know if we have enough of a sample size to accurately judge McAvoy’s season yet. He missed half of October and all of November with a concussion. When he has been on the ice, he’s been giving up a lot of shots, but not a lot of goals. I can live with that out of a 21-year-old defenseman who makes the kind of offensive contribution he does. Like I mentioned earlier, the blue line has been a rotating cast of warm bodies this year, so once that settles down, a little stability will do wonders for Charlie.

Is this Zdeno Chara‘s last season?

No. Shut up. Zdeno Chara will play until he’s 80 and he’ll still be in better shape than all of us.

When fully healthy can the Bruins throw a scare or more into the Leafs or Lightning in the spring? Are they more than just the best all around line in hockey plus?

This is a team that will win a first round series and then get bounced. Apart from the top line, they are pretty average in every way. There was a lot of hope that the Bruins could build on the progress they made last year, but with so many injuries, younger players have been forced to play above their development level to skate big minutes. When everyone is healthy and in the right slot, they can get a chance to learn and improve, but that just hasn’t happened yet this year. Rather than taking a step forward they have stood still while Tampa and Toronto have continued to blossom. But man is that Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak line fun to watch though.

Game #42 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #42 – Bruins vs. Hawks Douchebag Du Jour: Not Only Does Notre Dame Suck, They’re Irrelevant

By Sam Fels January 1, 2019 2282 0

The NHL decided it wanted to place its signature regular season game in a famous, hallowed college football stadium to draw in viewers.

Too bad they missed.

While any Notre Dame fan, between huffs of paint, won’t hesitate to tell you how much the Golden Dome means to football, society, and the world, you have to ask yourself other than alums and the occasional Chicago meatball, who does Notre Dame matter to? Because it certainly isn’t due to results of the past three decades.

Every so often, Notre Dame is able to manipulate its hand-picked schedule into a record that appears good, and more importantly the school and fanbase and NBC stamp their feet, close their eyes, and yell as loud as they can that they must be taken seriously and given a bowl or a playoff spot. And probably out of sheer exhaustion of listening to them, they’re given one. And they get the eight kinds of shit kicked out of them every single time. They’re second class. They’re a history lesson. They’re a mid-major with a television deal and faux-religious piety.

Notre Dame doesn’t join a conference to adhere to some history or because they think they’re above the rest of college football. They do it because they know it would kill off any notoriety they get. If they were in the Big 10, they’d be Iowa. If they were in the Big 12, they’d be Colorado. If they joined their basketball brethren in the ACC they’d be Pitt. No one would care. Barely anyone cares now. Every SEC school would suck their eyeballs out through their anus and fuck the brain hole.

That’s why they’re an also-ran with a shiny gloss. Star recruits now have never known Notre Dame as being anything, and they certainly don’t want to spend anytime in Bumfuck, Indiana. Fuck, their fathers don’t remember Notre Dame being anything worth talking about! They want championship games and NFL exposure you get in the SEC or Big 10, not beating up BYU in the middle of the afternoon on NBC. Who gives a flying fuck?

Notre Dame hasn’t mattered since the 80s. INXS has more hits after that decade than the Irish do. They’re an anachronism. And then we say the names of Lizzy Seeberg or Declan Sullivan, and it’s not just that they’re overblown or incompetent, it’s a downright evil institution. Fuck your touchdown Jesus into death. And then they pile their religious bullshit on top to give them even more piousness even though if it wasn’t for their quickly fading football glory no one would ever go to that school without being forced. It would be a prison camp like the rest of that godforsaken state.

Then again, maybe it’s perfect that the Hawks want to stage the only game they’ll play that anyone will care about there. There are some similarities.

Game #42 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #42 – Bruins vs. Hawks: I Make A Lot Of Graphs

By Sam Fels January 1, 2019 1277 0

Game #42 Preview Suite

Everything Else

Game #42 – Bruins vs. Hawks: Lineups & How Teams Were Built

By Sam Fels January 1, 2019 1386 0

Notes: You’ll be shocked and in no way entertained by the fact that this is David Baceks’s third game of a three-game suspension for being a dumbass. This has thrown everything below their top line into even more of a mush…Rask hasn’t been as good as last year and has been outplayed by Halak for the most part, but he still is the #1 so he should get the call…not one of the Bruins d-men have played every game…Krejci’s production is the real miracle because he’s played with everyone and none of them are any good…

Notes: If you want to throw something after seeing Ward start, we don’t blame you. There’s no excuse for it other than Coach Cool Youth Pastor is terrified of telling any veteran player something they don’t want to hear…you’d think Murphy and Dahlstrom will draw the Bergeron line assignment, as would Toews…we bitch about Anisimov but that line in producing…Sikura went back with Top Cat in Colorado but lost out on some shifts to a double-shifting Kane…Caggiula couldn’t sort out his visa things in time to practice yesterday, so we’ll guess his debut comes Thursday against the Islanders…

Game #42 Preview Suite

Everything Else

There Goes Your Manning

By Sam Fels December 31, 2018 2392 0

I’m sure it was only a coincidence that the Hawks completed and announced a trade of perhaps their most bewildering signing in a decade during the last Bears regular season game. Wouldn’t want anyone to notice an admission of a stupefying and yet comedic mistake of this proportion.

The headline is the Hawks traded Brandon Manning and failed prospect Robin Norell to Edmonton for Jason Garrison and Drake “The A.K.” Caggiula.

The Brandon Manning signing sucked when they made it, but we tried to reassure ourselves he was only a bottom-pairing player and really couldn’t do that much damage. And then he played, and somehow the signing looked significantly worse than we thought it would. Then he blamed it on the system Joel Quenneville employed. When the coach and system changed, he still sucked. Then his GM blamed his signing on the coach he just canned. And when Manning finally played himself out of the lineup, he bitched and moaned until he got traded. Perhaps the most infuriating part of this whole thing was that nothing was ever Manning’s or Bowman’s fault for his acquisition or play.

Take a moment to consider all that.

Manning was a continuation in a war between Bowman and Quenneville that went on for far too long, and it looks like both will eventually lose. Michal Kempny was the big battlefront in it, which has caused Bowman to re-sign Jan Rutta and Manning while basically saying to Q, “Fine, you can have your type of player. Good fucking luck.” I wonder if it doesn’t go back to Trevor Daley, who is utterly terrible and always has been but the similarities are there. Bowman desperately wanted anything to show for having to give up Patrick Sharp and also Stephen Johns just to get rid of Sharp’s contract. Daley was also unhappy under Q and his system, and his play showed that. And he wasn’t shy about telling people, even though he was always a cowboy laced on meth when it came to his defensive play. And the Hawks had to give up on him barely halfway into his first season here because it was just that bad.

We’ve seen this before.

In the end, the Hawks were always going to be bad and Manning only cost them some money, and some bleeding eyeballs at his play. Maybe they could have believed in Carl Dahlstrom more and let him just start the year here, but these things aren’t always linear. At least it’s over.

They get back Drake Caggiula, a player they wanted to sign out of college and made a push for. He’s at least not a complete suckbag, though close. He did manage 13 goals last year. You’d probably rather see him take fourth-line shifts than Andreas Martinsen or John Hayden, who gets an abnormal amount of ink spilled about him for someone who can barely do anything. That’s about the ceiling for Caligula. Jason Garrison is on a minimum deal for this season and we’ll never see the light of day and will probably be waived tout suite.

While the Hawks will tell you it clears up their defensive logjam, it really doesn’t. When Henri Jokiharju comes back, they’ll have seven d-men and various arguments about why they all need to play. Certainly Dahlstrom’s play doesn’t warrant him sitting regularly. Jokiharju has to play. Murphy’s been their best d-man by miles. You’re not going to sit Keith, who seems to have found some reasonable understanding with Gustafsson, no matter how little sense it makes. Which leaves Forsling and Seabrook. Forsling is terrible and awful and bad and stupid and sucky, and if never plays again I’lll consider it a brief ray of light in an otherwise ceaselessly dark existence, but the Hawks are still under the impression he needs to develop and at least see what they have. He can’t do that from the pressbox. Which means they’re headed for their Seabrook Nexus Of Death faster than they would like, I’m sure.

All in all it sounds like a really healthy organization we’ve got here.

Everything Else

Game #41 – Hawks vs. Avalanche Preview/Dog Park Opening: We Can Have That Effect

By Sam Fels December 29, 2018 1509 0

vs.

RECORDS: Hawks 14-20-6 Avalanche 19-13-6

PUCK DROP: 8pm

TV: NBCSN Chicago

HOW HIGH? SO HIGH I COULD TOUCH THE SKY: Mile High Hockey

The Hawks continue whatever this little streak of barely managed competence means by a second trip to Denver in eight days. But hey, is there anywhere else you’d rather go twice in a little over a week? Yes, yes there is. But you don’t get to decide those things. So there. Enjoy all the fucking breweries, dipshit.

Since beating the Avs right before the Christmas break, the Hawks have sent the Avalanche into something of a tailspin. Though to be fair, the Avs weren’t playing all that well before, either. They’ve lost their two games in the interim, both on the road, to the Coyotes and the Knights. That gives them an unsightly December record of 4-7-1, which has seen them drop off the pace a bit of the Jets and Predators, which they were keeping up with. Then again, no one was really expecting them to tussle with the glitterati of the Central all year.

The main problem for the Avs is that their one, gushing source of goals has dried up. They only scored once against the Knights last out. Same thing again with the Coyotes the game before that. As you remember they came up with only one goal against Collin Delia the last time these two flamenco’d. None of this is a huge shock, as when the Avs were surging to the surprise of the league in November they were shooting 13.8% as a team. That’s never going to last. December’s 7.8% is actually pretty normal, but well below what they had been doing.

Which probably means they’re getting a market correction against the Hawks, right?

When the Avs aren’t pouring in an inordinate ratio of goals to shots, their defensive shortcomings come to the fore. They are not a great possession team, or defensive team, as Samuel Girard (the big dog is always right!) and Erik Johnson are the only pair you’d trust with anything. They have gotten better goaltending of late from Phillip Grubauer, who has only given up nine goals in taking the last four starts from Semyon Varlamov. He may have permanently usurped the starter’s role, but we’ll see what they do tonight.

Obviously, with the Avs the whole story is how you deal with the top line of Gabriel ThreeYaksAndADog, Nathan MacKinnon, and Mikko Rantanen. They’re still putting up boxcar numbers, and if you can’t get them on a leash you’ll lose. The Hawks kept them off the scoresheet last time by some miracle or witchcraft, and that’s the order of the night again. Do that, and the Avs struggle with support scoring. Only J.T. Compher and Carl Soderberg have more than nine goals beyond that, and Soderberg hasn’t scored in his last 10 games. It’s not really what he does anyway.

The Avs will get really good when their kids like Tyson Jost or Alex Kerfoot start cashing in on their promise and they can beat you from various angles. Until then, it’s what the top unit can do and nothing else. So far, that’s been more than enough to secure a playoff spot.

For the Hawks, there shouldn’t be too many changes, if any. There’s utterly no point in going back to Cam Ward tonight, whether the Hawks still think they have something to play for or they’re already into their development for next season, other than some whacked “Gotta be fair to Holly, dude” nonsense. Collin Delia is the better option no matter how you’re looking at it. Don’t overthink it.

Lineup-wise, the Hawks have been better with Brandon Manning‘s and Chris Kunitz‘s ass stapled to a chair in the pressbox, so no reason to change that either. Maybe Martinsen comes in for Hayden or some such meaningless garbage, but that doesn’t matter. We’d like to see Perlini and Dylan Sikura switch back to where they were before, but again this is nit-picking.

Again, the schedule isn’t too daunting to the bye and All-Star break. Weird things happen in outdoor games, and then there’s a fair amount of New York teams on the schedule in January, who all suck. It’s also pretty light, so head coach Cool Youth Pastor will get some practice time to implement whatever it is he’s supposed to implement. If the Hawks think there’s something to be saved from this season, and they do even if it’s deluded beyond all belief, this is the stretch to do it.

Game #41 Preview Suite