Everything Else

Well Pilgrim, Not Until You Eat The Peanuts Outta My… – FFUD’s ’17-’18 Player Reviews – Victor Ejdsell or I Am Not A Gun

By John Pullega 2007 0

In running himself out of town by means of his performance and (allegedly) his mouth, Ryan Hartman turned into a late first-round pick and the towering Victor Ejdsell. Ejdsell impressed in his NHL debut, lining up between Saad and Kane to the tune of a 51+ CF% and three shots on goal. Then he sort of disappeared in his last five, primarily between DeBrincat and Sikura. Let’s see what we can pick out in a mere six games from our newest Éric Dazé–sized center.

Victor Ejdsell

6 GP, 0 Goals, 1 Assist, 1 Point, -1, 0 PIM

43.3 CF% (Evens), -2.7 CF% Rel (Evens), 37.88 SCF% (5v5), 35.96 xGF% (5v5), -8.66 xGF% Rel (5v5)

 60% oZ Start (Evens)

What We Said: Ejdsell comes with plus-hands . . . The big concern is whether or not he can skate enough to make any of it matter . . . The Hawks were after Ejdsell when he chose the Predators, and generally the European players they’ve been hot on tend to work out at least ok . . .

What We Got: Overall, we got a small feel for what Ejdsell might be able to provide in a sheltered role. His first two games were his best, as he managed four shots and his lone assist. After that, he disappeared completely for his next three, losing 66% of his faceoffs or more, and managing zero shots on goal. He took three shots in the very last game, then got sent down to Rockford for their playoff run.

Perhaps the most encouraging thing about Ejdsell’s cup of coffee was that he didn’t spend too much time playing the role of Annette Frontpresence. He’s got soft hands and good vision according to most scouting reports, and in his debut, he spent much more time in the high slot than in front of the goaltender. That’s a good thing, because by all accounts, Ejdsell’s play style is much smaller and more skilled than his frame suggests. There’s still plenty of time for Quenneville et al. to fuck that up and neuter him by cementing him in the crease because he happens to be large, but in his mini-audition, they seemed willing to let Ejdsell be Ejdsell and not Artem Anisimov.

There isn’t a ton more we can glean from his six games in terms of performance. While all of his advanced stats are downright awful, it’s over six mostly meaningless games, during which he played most of his time with DeBrincat and Sikura. More encouraging is how he’s playing in Rockford. He’s got two goals and two assists in three games, including a triple-overtime, series-sweep-clinching goal against the Wolves. Jon Fromi had some positive things to say about him:

Wasn’t bad in his own end and showed he can finish a scoring play in Game 3 [against the Wolves] . . . I haven’t seen any problems as far as him keeping up with the pace the Hogs like to play. He hasn’t looked out of place at all coming from the larger ice.

Fromi also said that the Ice Hogs are letting him play in transition, as he’s been at the front of some of the rushes. He’s also played a bit on the point during the power play with Dahlstrom, which might be encouraging.

Where We Go From Here: Given the Hawks’s makeup at center—with Toews and Schmaltz in the top two, Tommy Wingels all but guaranteed to come back, Artem Anisimov not yet traded, and our David Kampf in the background—it doesn’t seem like there’s a lot of wiggle room for Ejdsell next year. But with his size and the supposed skill he’s got in his hands, there could be a spot for him somewhere in the bottom six—maybe next to Duclair and Sikura—assuming Saad, Kane, DeBrincat, and Vinnie round out the top six, as they should.

Realistically, he’ll find a home in the bottom six, making us wonder whether he’s actually two smaller hockey players underneath a trench coat sneaking into a movie they shouldn’t be at.

But you didn’t come to the Victor Ejdsell review for rational, stats-based analysis, and neither did I.

What you came for is a complete skullfuck of unbelievable and nearly impossible trades involving Ejdsell, and I’m here to give it to you.

Because the Blackhawks are running out of time with this core’s window, they’re going to make two moves to pry it back open, and they involve a ton of risk. But with the core aging and three consecutive disappointing years behind them, it’s time for Bowman to ride the snake.

The first move can come in one of three flavors, each one requiring more GENIOUS BRAIN neurons than the last to comprehend, to fill the big hole in the blue line. The second, of course, is a no-brainer. Everything that follows assumes the cap goes up to at least $80 million and that the Hawks either trade or LTIR Hossa before the draft.

1a. Package both first-round picks, Ejdsell, and Schmaltz for Calgary’s Dougie Hamilton. Throw in Rutta, and Anisimov and his 11 power play goals if you can get him to waive his NMC. According to Kent Wilson over at The Athletic, “The Flames will be looking to recoup some draft picks and find an impact right winger to solidify the attack up front. The team may be tempted to put Hamilton on the auction block to fill one or both of those needs, but that would likely turn out to be a mistake.”

Schmaltz’s 52 points and 21 goals last year might not be the high-level scoring Calgary would need to justify the trade, especially since Giordano–Hamilton is one of the best pairings in the league. Then again, Wilson pointed out that the Flames seemed to have trust issues with Dougie, using him both less than T.J. Brodie on average and rarely in higher-leverage defensive situations (penalty kill, overtime, as the sole defender on the power play). And this is a team that signed Jaromir Jagr as an offensive solution then acted surprised when he stopped giving a shit, and thought signing Michael Stone was a solution for defensive depth, so Flames GM Brad Treliving might be a moron.

2a. Sign John Tavares at $12 million. Our fearless leader, King of All Media, and overall maven already laid it out for you. If that went through, you’d have

DeBrincat–Tavares–Kane

Saad–Toews–Hinostroza

Duclair–Kampf–Sikura

Highmore/Jurco–Anisimov/Wingels–Hayden

Keith–Hamilton

Gustafsson–Murphy

Seabrook–Jokiharju

1b. Package both first-round picks, Ejdsell, Hinostroza, and Schmaltz for Erik Karlsson, and even that might not be enough for what Ottawa would need for the best D-man in the game (Bobby Ryan would probably be involved, making this impossible for the cap). But let’s assume Pierre Dorion is a special kind of moron, and Ryan isn’t involved.

2b. Sign John Tavares at $12 million. That leaves you

DeBrincat–Tavares–Kane

Saad–Toews–Duclair

Jurco–Kampf–Sikura

Highmore–Anisimov–Hayden

Keith–Karlsson

Gustafsson–Murphy

Seabrook–Jokiharju

1c. Package their #8 pick, Artem Anisimov, Victor Ejdsell, and Vinnie Hinostroza for Justin Faulk. The scuttlebutt is that Carolina is losing patience with with Faulk, and given Canes owner Tom Dundon’s questionable ability to properly value and compensate the people who work for him, he might be griftable. Dundon, a man with next to no professional experience in hockey, wants to play Mark Cuban, so maybe you sell him on Anisimov’s VETERAN PRESENCE and 20-goal season as a center, Vinnie’s offensive potential, and Ejdsell’s size and skillset. The problem here is Anisimov’s no-move clause doesn’t turn into a limited no-trade clause until after the draft. Maybe you get him to waive it by selling him on playing with Andrei Svechnikov, I don’t know.

2c. Sign John Tavares at $12 million. That gives you

DeBrincat–Tavares–Kane

Saad–Toews–Duclair

Jurco–Schmaltz–Sikura

Highmore–Kampf–Hayden

Keith–Faulk

Gustafsson–Murphy

Seabrook–Jokiharju

Ejdsell may not be a gun, but maybe he can be one of the bullets that get the Hawks the top-pairing D-man they need, based on his size alone and the coinflip that is NHL GM dipshittery. Though it’s 99.9% certain none of this will happen, especially since DeBrincat would probably need to go for most of these trades to even be plausible, a boy can dream.

Everything Else

Well Pilgrim, Not Until You Eat The Peanuts Outta My… – FFUD’s ’17-’18 Player Reviews – Jordan Oesterle, The Other GREAT STORY

By John Pullega 1795 0

Once thought of as merely a depth signing, Jordan Oesterle went from playing a combined 25 games over three years for the corroded sewer piping that is Edmonton’s defense to taking first-pairing minutes with future Hall of Famer Duncan Keith. Like you, we often wondered how on Earth a team that relied so heavily on its defensemen to win games and Cups ended up throwing a guy who couldn’t hack it in Edmonton into meaningful minutes. At the end of the day, Oesterle wasn’t the underground landfill fire approaching a nuclear waste dump that we worried he could be, but that isn’t saying much. Let’s see what we have here.

Jordan Oesterle

55 GP, 5 Goals, 10 Assists, 15 Points, -11, 8 PIM

52.4 CF% (Evens), -0.6 CF% Rel (Evens), 53.15 SCF% (5v5), 49 xGF% (5v5), 0.44 xGF% Rel (5v5)

 56.5% oZ Start (Evens)

What We Said: If truck stops served oysters, they’d be called Oesterles . . . He’s billed as a no-frills blue liner, which essentially makes him the Tom Smykowski of the NHL. If he’s afforded any meaningful playing time, you’ll beg for someone to set the whole building on fire.

What We Got: If not for Jeff G.L. Ass, Jordan Oesterle would have taken the “WHAT A GREAT STORY” mantle. He scored his first goal ever this year, played in more than half of his team’s games for the first time ever this year, and—per Scott Powers—averaged 21 minutes per game in the Hawks’s final 53 games, trailing only Duncan Keith.

Like everyone’s favorite Irishman, Oesterle found most of his success playing on his off side. Of his 986 minutes, he played 553 of them as the right-side D-man next to Keith. In doing so, he finished with a 52.99 CF% and six points (1 G 5 A) next to Keith (5v5). That’s not bad for a guy with 25 games of experience to his name prior to this year. I’m being entirely sincere when I say that’s really great for him.

What isn’t great is that when you start digging into the numbers, you can quantify what your eyes saw game in and game out: Jordan Oesterle probably sucks, and was at the very least in way over his head.

When you consider the fact that Oesterle started in the offensive zone more than 56% of the time, his overall 52.4 CF% loses some of its sheen. And it only gets worse from there. Despite the plush zone starts, Oesterle posted a team-worst 43.86 High Danger Chances For Percentage (Hillman doesn’t count because he only played four games). This means that even though Oesterle started in the offensive zone much more often than not, he still managed to give up more high-danger scoring chances than he and his linemates took, and by a wide margin.

Oesterle also contributed an abysmal 43.02 Goals For Percentage (GF%), second worst behind Duncan Keith; a -3.55 Relative Goals For Percentage (Rel GF%), third worst behind Keith and Gustav Forsling; and a 49 Expected Goals For Percentage (xGF%). This means that in both practice and theory, when Oesterle was on the ice—especially with Keith—the Hawks scored much, much less often than when he wasn’t. Again, this is while starting in the offensive zone 56% of the time.

This isn’t to say that Oesterle can’t be useful. But as a first-pairing defenseman, Oesterle was overwhelmed more often than not. Granted, he was placed on his off side for most of the year, next to a cowboy with increasingly dull spurs, and was asked to take on the best his opponents had to offer on a nightly basis. That’s probably not the wisest use of a guy who, again, couldn’t hack it on a team that thought Adam Larsson was a comparable player to Taylor Hall.

But that’s also not Oesterle’s fault, as Q’s THROBBING GENIOUS BRAIN simply couldn’t contain the temptation to breathe life into a player who is the hockey equivalent of a lump of clay and call him man.

Where We Go From Here: Realistically and unfortunately, Oesterle will probably saddle up next to Keith to start the season again, as Q embarks on another campaign to prove what a smart and forward-thinking coach he is with one of HIS GUYS. But if we’re looking at this as a “maximizing potential” proposition, Oesterle would be the 7th D-man, spelling guys like Rutta and Forsling (God willing) when necessary.

The problem with this is twofold. One, we still don’t know whether the organ-I-zation is going to go out and get a legitimate top-pairing guy. If they do, that’s going to push Oesterle out, as you figure to see combinations of Keith–New Guy, Gustafsson–Seabrook (because fuck you), and Murphy–Rutta (kill me).

Two, though it’s clear to everyone outside the organ-I-zation that Brent Seabrook is now a third-pairing guy, there’s no guarantee that he’ll slot there. If he does, and Seabrook has a crystal-clear understanding that he is to play centerfield and nothing else, you can see Oesterle fitting in there, maybe. But given that Quenneville tended to lean on Seabrook when he was out of answers, it’s unlikely that we’ll see Seabrook as a designated third-pairing guy anywhere but in our dreams.

The important thing to keep in mind is that Oesterle is a complete trainwreck in his own zone—hell, he couldn’t take advantage of a 56% oZ start ratio—so pairing him with guys like Keith, Forsling, or Gustafsson needs to be completely off the table. That doesn’t leave a lot of room for him, and that’s probably for the better.

Oesterle can be a serviceable third-pairing D-man in spot situations. He’s proven that he can play his off side without completely filling his diaper, and if you want to be outrageously generous, you can maybe see him as a second-unit power play QB, if the Hawks stand pat with the blue line in the offseason. But like we said at the beginning of this year, if the Hawks are relying on Jordan Oesterle to play meaningful minutes next year, it might be time to start making and filling some upper-level-management vacancies.

Everything Else

Night Songs – Round 1 Day 10: An Ice Water Fountain of Urine

By John Pullega 2190 0

The two teams that were supposed to win won, in mostly convincing fashion. Let’s do a quick clean up.

Penguins 8 – Flyera 5 (Penguins win series 4–2)

Only in Philadelphia can a game that had two hat tricks—one being the four-goal variety and the other coming from a guy with a frayed MLC—be overshadowed by, well, anything. But to no one’s surprise, the Flyera faithful became the old sports cliché of leaving a piece of yourself on the ice, pelting players with trash, and half-full cans of Yuengling and whatever other canal runoff they drink. Hilariously, the complete toddler meltdown that is fandom in Philly led to Pittsburgh’s final empty netter, as a rogue towel in front of Provorov led him to turn the puck over to Brandon Rust for the final dagger.

Guentzal’s four consecutive goals and Couturier’s hat trick despite his torn MCL were the undercard on the night. Pittsburgh will probably get extended time to wash the garbage out of their hair, because you know the Caps/BJs series is going to seven.

Predators 5 – Avalanche 0 (Predators win series 4–2)

Not the way you want to go out at home, but there probably wasn’t a bigger mismatch in all of the playoffs than this series. But when it really mattered, Nashville got up and Dammit Doll’d the Avs. There may have been whispers about Nashville not having “it” against the Avs in this series, but last night’s drubbing ought to put that to rest.

There really isn’t much to say about a 5–0 shutout. Shit Hip continues to defy his age, and the Bonino–Sissons–Watson line continues to impress in the playoffs. Whether we like it or not, Nashville can be an overpowering team when it needs to be, which will make the matchup with Winnipeg probably some of the best hockey we’ll see in the playoffs.

With the way things have gone in the NHL this year, the Preds and Jets will mash each other to a pulp, then the winner will have to play a well-rested Knights, fresh off a sweep against the Sharks, because fuck you. Then the Knights will find themselves as an expansion team in the Stanley Cup while the rest of us drink hemlock and/or eat Arby’s.

Everything Else

Well Pilgrim, Not Until You Eat The Peanuts Outta My… – FFUD’s ’17-’18 Player Reviews – Connor Murphy Or: How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Our Large Irish Son

By John Pullega 1936 0

When the Hawks brought Connor Murphy in, he was the presumptive favorite to replace the puck-pocked husk of what was once Niklas Hjalmarsson. And as the season went on, and the Hawks found their heads deeper and deeper in the toilet, the narrative began to range from “the Hawks will need a Top 4 defenseman next year” (true) to “the Hawks really miss Hjalmarsson this year” (categorically false in terms of on-ice performance).

After some early season struggles, a few confounding healthy scratches, and a mostly successful experiment on his off side, Murphy settled in to produce a couple of interesting career highs and team rankings. Let’s kick it.

Connor Murphy

76 GP, 2 Goals, 12 Assists, 14 Points, -3, 34 PIM

53.44 CF% (Evens), 1.2 CF% Rel (Evens), 53.47 SCF% (5v5), 51.57 xGF% (5v5), 2.99 xGF% Rel (5v5)

 50% oZ Start (Evens)

What We Said: Behind Keith and—if you look at him with enough glare from the sun—Seabrook, Murphy is probably the Hawks’s third best D-man. He’s fine if not underwhelming for the price ($3.85 million cap hit), but on the edge of 24, he will need to prove that his numbers really are the result of playing in America’s chafe rather than wasted potential. Given that the Hawks have won three Cups on the backs of their defensemen . . . Murphy will need to develop into a shutdown D-man fast.

What We Got: We’ll start with some numbers (feel free to skip the bullets if all you want is the explanation).

– Murphy posted an even-strength CF% of 53.44, finishing above water for the first time since his rookie year. Of Hawks D-men who played at least 20 games, he finished fourth, behind Franson (59.91), Gustafsson (55.39), and Kempný (53.95). If you bump the minimum threshold up to 40 games, Murphy is your leader in CF% for Hawks D-men.

– His 1.2 CF% Rel was only the second time he’s been in the positives on that ledger (1.0 last year). Of all Hawks defensemen who played at least 20 games, only Franson (9.2), Gustafsson (6.6), and Kempný (1.4) had higher CF% Rels. Again, bumping the threshold up to 40 games, Murphy’s your D-man leader for the Hawks.

– The caveat there is that Franson, Gustafsson, and Kempný started in the offensive zone at respective rates of 65.8%, 57.4%, and 55.4% to Murphy’s 50%.

– Murphy also finished with a High Danger Chances For Percentage (HDCF%) of 48.56. That’s fourth among Hawks D-men with at least 20 games—behind Kempný (52.86), Franson (52.34), and Gustafsson (50.59)—and above the team rate of 47.11. Once again, bumping the threshold to 40 games, Murphy leads all Hawks D-men.

– Murphy finished fourth in Expected Goals For Percentage (xGF%; 51.57) among Hawks D-men who played at least 20 games (behind Franson, Kempný, and Gustafsson). When bumped up to 40 games, Murphy was the leader.

– Finally, Murphy finished third in Expected Goals For Percentage Relative (xGF% Rel; 2.99) among Hawks D-men who played at least 20 games (behind Gustafsson and Franson). When bumped to 40 games, he’s the leader again.

All of this is to say that in terms of possession, Murphy was good if not great overall. He was better than the Hawks’s average in terms of giving up high-danger chances, but not great in a vacuum. And when he was on the ice, the Hawks could have expected more goals for than against.

That said, one of Murphy’s glaring weaknesses, especially at the beginning and end of the year, was his struggle to clear the puck in his own zone under pressure.

The above graph, which was tracked by Corey Sznajder, tells us that of these nine Blackhawks, only Brent Seabrook had more failed zone exits per 60 minutes of play. This means that the opposition was more likely to sustain pressure when Murphy had the puck in his own zone, which, of course, tends to lead to more opportunities to score goals. And while these data aren’t comprehensive (only tracked through 38 games), it does give us a good sample size for what’s pretty obvious through the eye test: When Murphy was pressured in his own zone, he sometimes panicked.

While Murphy absolutely must keep his spurs from jingling and jangling in his own zone if he’s going to develop into a true Top 4 shutdown D-man, it’s hard to ignore the carousel of D-men he was jerked around with this year and wonder whether that affected his play.

Murphy played primary time with five different defensemen this year.

All stats 5v5

Given how often he got jerked around, including playing his off side in his 25 games with Seabrook, one thing that stands out is the relative consistency in his possession numbers, aside from Keith. And despite the fact that the Hawks were the seventh worst team in giving up High Danger Chances, Murphy still managed well when away from Oesterle and Keith.

But therein lies the problem: Since the assumption is that Keith takes on the toughest competition (and he usually does), Murphy’s piss-poor numbers with him might suggest that he isn’t a Top 4 guy like Hjalmarsson was.

But this dovetails nicely with the overall point I want to make: The Murphy-for-Hjalmarsson trade wasn’t the loss for the Hawks some people want to say it is, and having Hjalmarsson over Murphy would have made things worse, not better.

Check out some of Hjalmarsson’s numbers when he played with Keith over his Hawks career:

All Stats 5v5

Like Murphy, Hjalmarsson had a rough go of it in the first 100 or so minutes with Keith, and that was when Keith was starting to go full Oppenheimer on the league. Coincidentally, it wasn’t until Hjalmarsson turned 25 that things really started to click any time he played with Keith, and next year Murphy will be 25.

Clearly, this is simply a coincidence, as raw age will have no effect on how (or whether) Murphy plays with Keith going forward. But this idea that Murphy doesn’t have Top 4 potential because he didn’t play well with a declining Keith over seven games this year is one of the more confusing implications I’ve heard this year.

The last point I’ll make regarding the implication that the Murphy-for-Hjalmarsson trade was a loss for the Hawks and that the Hawks miss Hjalmarsson is this:

Using more of Sznajder’s tracking data, it’s obvious that Murphy brought more to the table for the Hawks than Hjalmarsson did for the Coyotes this year. One of the two things that Hjalmarsson did that was marginally better was in terms of the breakups he caused at the blue line, preventing opponents from entering the zone with possession. (Note: They only tracked Hjalmarsson for 10 games this year against Murphy’s 38, so consider the sample size.)

Going even farther—because I have no sense of moderation whatsoever—even when comparing this year’s Murphy to last year’s Hjalmarsson, the differences aren’t as big as you’d think, mostly:

So even when we recognize and admit that Murphy had trouble with his exits from his own zone, the revisionist history that Hjalmarsson was an indispensable cog whose absence contributed to this year’s downfall doesn’t really hold water. Last year’s Hjalmarsson certainly had a better performance in terms of breakups and the percentage of entries he allowed, but he did it primarily with a not-yet-in-full-decline Duncan Keith covering him (or vice versa). Murphy spent most of his time with the glob of ambergris that is Brent Seabrook.

In short, Murphy had a good year with the Hawks despite his coach’s best efforts to jerk him around, was better than Hjalmarsson would have been, and stayed generally consistent despite spending almost a third of his year on his off side babysitting Seabrook. He’ll never be a game breaker, but he doesn’t have to be.

Where We Go From Here: Connor Murphy ought to open next year next to either Keith or Erik Gustafsson. If the Hawks are going to look at Keith as a Top Pairing Guy next year (they probably shouldn’t), they have to give him someone to cover his ass when his brain says he can make a play but his feet disagree, as we saw more often this year. I’d argue that Murphy, more than Oesterle, is that guy, despite how poorly they played together last year.

Whether you think Gustafsson is a second pairing guy is a conversation for another day (for the record, I can see it if I squint, and I’m willing to try it). But what’s undeniable is that in 135 minutes together at 5v5, Murphy and Gustafsson had a 57+ CF% while starting in the offensive zone at a 49.45% rate. With Murphy and Gustafsson entering their primes at 25 and 26, and each having paper that runs at least through 2020, pairing them might be worth an extended look, but it probably requires outside help to pair with Keith.

If the Hawks manage to sign a guy like John Carlson, or swing a trade for an OEL, Darnell Nurse, Justin Faulk, or maybe Oscar Klefbom, you’ll feel more comfortable about having the new guy and Keith as the top pairing, with Murphy covering Gustafsson. Or, you can pair the new guy with Murphy on the top pairing. This would let Keith slot in the second pairing with some iteration of Gustafsson on his off side, Forsling on his off side, Jokiharju (which is probably too much to ask), or Oesterle, because you know that’s going to happen again, despite our wailing.

Regardless, the Hawks have to saddle Murphy with more responsibility next year, whether they like it or not. The Hawks have a Top-4-potential guy in Murphy, and when he wasn’t getting the runaround, he showed flashes of it last year. Whether they use him that way is anyone’s guess.

All stats from hockey-reference.com, NaturalStatTrick.com, or corsica.hockey, unless otherwise noted.

Everything Else

Watching The Party – FFUD’s 1st Round Preview: Ducks vs. Sharks or Impetigo in My Armpit

By John Pullega 1804 0

vs.

SCHEDULE: Game 1: Thursday, Game 2: Saturday, Game 3: April 16, Game 4: April 18

It’s fitting that the only series that would give the Kings/Golden Knights series a run for its “things I would rather hit myself over the head with a tack hammer than watch” money pits two unbearable monoliths against one another. The Sharks are looking for their first Cup ever while the Ducks are looking to make one more run with the Perry–Getzlaf–Kesler Connection in a matchup that only Gary Bettman has frothy loins over. Let’s get to the on-ice equivalent of that image here.

Goalies: John Gibson proved his mettle this year with the Ducks, posting a sparkling 92.6 SV% over 60 games. There’s only one goaltender with a better save percentage and at least 50 games under his belt on the year, and that’s Ol’ Shit Hip down in Nashville. And Gibson got his beak wet in the playoffs last year, with 16 starts, a 9-5 record, and a 91.8 SV% before bowing out late in the Nashville series. The only question now is will he make the bell, as he’s been nursing an upper body injury since April 1. He’s expected to go tonight, but if not, they’ll have Ryan “Kane for” Miller in the crease. Miller’s been on a bit of a hot streak, giving up just four goals over his last three starts against the Wild, Stars, and Coyotes, including a shutout of the Coyotes in the last game of the year. They’d much prefer Gibson you assume, but they aren’t entirely up shit creek if he needs to sit the first one out.

The Sharks will throw Martin Jones in their own crease, whose career similarity score compares him most closely to John Gibson. IT’S LIKE I’M SEEING DOUBLE: FOUR KRUSTYS. After pitching seven straight wins to the tune of a 91.9 SV% in mid-to-late March, Jones has gone a bit cold, going 1-4 with an 87.4 SV%, including allowing five goals on 19 shots against Minnesota last Saturday. But Jones has a habit of showing up when it counts, as reflected in his career 92.5 SV% and 2.01 GAA over 32 playoff games.

Defense: The Most Appropriately Named Player for His Team, Cam Fowler, is going to miss the entire round and perhaps more if the Ducks find their way out, which throws oil on an already average-at-best defensive corps. Once you get past HAMPUS! HAMPUS! and Josh Manson, you start entering “They have guys who can play minutes” territory in Francois Beauchemin—who figures to be as quiet as most of the letters in his name—Brandon Montour, Marcus Pettersson, and Andy Welinski, who’s played all of seven games this year, and only three in 2018.

The Sharks corps will live and die by Brent Burns and his “I promise not to skin you alive in a secluded cave” aura. Beyond him are the criminally underappreciated Vlasic and Justin BRRRRAAAAAAAAAUUUUUUUUN, who coupled their shutdown pairing ways with respective 32 and 28 point seasons. There isn’t much hiding from the Sharks D-corps, and it’s here that you can expect the Sharks to pull away.

Forwards: For what seems like the trillionth, and mercifully and hopefully final time, the big bag of ass-hair clippings known as Corey Perry will skate alongside Bald Asshole Ryan Getzlaf in this playoff series. Along with Rickard Rakell, this line will probably see a whole lot of Pickles and Braun, which doesn’t bode well for Corey Perry’s tiny-faced, hair-trigger temper or Getzlaf’s “Good When It Doesn’t Matter” playoff play style. And you’ll no doubt hear all about Ryan Kesler’s “spirit” and “ability to get under opponents’ skin” because once you get past the fact that he’s a giant pissbaby, there’s not much more to say about him. He’s hurt, he sucks, and he’ll take a bad penalty when it matters. The third-line of Ritchie–Henrique–Kase will need to do some sneaky damage, as they have the best chance of avoiding the Sharks defensive buzzsaw in the Top 4.

The Sharks have one of the better on-paper Top 9s in the league, especially now that The Other Asshat Kane has joined the top line. He’s been nursing an arm injury but expects to play tonight. The third line of Meier–Tierney–Labanc has all the potential in the world to turn the series, as each had 35+ point seasons and all are 23 or under. Tierney is the only one with extensive playoff experience, but I suspect that Hampus and Manson will get saddled with the Pavelski and Couture lines, leaving this line space to make magic. And there’s the outside chance that Jumbo Joe makes his HBK from the rafters appearance at some point, but that’s far from a guarantee.

Prediction: This series has all the appeal and intrigue of treating an impetigo infection in your armpit. The Ducks are coming in hot, having won 10 of their last 12 and five of their last six, but if they’re asking Miller to do anything more than spot start, they’re going to have trouble. The Sharks defense and special teams figures to be the difference maker, especially if Martin Jones does Martin Jones-y things in the playoffs. The Sharks still have that late-aughts Cubs feel to them, but that oughtn’t rear its head until at least the second round. Sharks in 7.  

Everything Else

Game #81 – Honey Don’t Stop Tryin’ and You’ll Get What You Deserve – Hawks 1, Blues 4

By John Pullega 2020 0

Box Score

Hockey Stats

Natural Stat Trick

Like a day at the Robert Crown Center, this game leaves us cold, bored, and completely disenfranchised about things that are supposed to be fun. The good news is that none of it mattered, and it’s now almost over. To the bullets.

– This was less a hockey game and more a farewell to one of the most important Blackhawks of this era, Patrick Sharp. He got a nice video montage both before the game and in the third, and was slotted on the top line next to Kane, in hopes that he’d be able to recreate some of the magic of his younger years. While it’s no surprise that nothing really happened, it was a nice gesture from the organization. It hardly matters that Sharp was the worst possession player for the Hawks by far. Given that Colorado lost last night, the outcome of this game was window dressing, so giving Sharp a good sendoff was about as good as it was going to get.

It might be easy to forget just how good Sharp was for the Hawks in his prime, but I’m not going to take that away from whoever does his year-end wrap. All I’ll say is I’ll miss what Sharp once was and am glad to see him retire as a Hawk, which I assume is what he’ll do following tomorrow’s game.

– J-F Berube looked good until he didn’t, which is about par for the course. Crawford can’t come back quickly enough.

– One positive from this game was the chemistry between DeBrincat and Sikura. Sikura fed DeBrincat a few nice opportunities tonight, the best of which coming in the first period. Sikura took advantage of a Carter Hutton turnover behind the net and fed DeBrincat for a high-danger zone shot that Hutton managed to stuff. Then, in the second, DeBrincat returned the favor with a crisp pass through the Royal Road to Sikura, who also got stuffed by Hutton. The only real question is who’s going to center these two, because Ejdsell looks like a sore thumb out there with them. He’s going to need to progress by leaps and bounds if he wants to be the guy for these two.

– Duncan Keith had one of his worst games in recent memory tonight. He had three turnovers by the second period, and never looked comfortable on the ice. Again, this was a meaningless game, but watching Keith struggle as badly as he did is never fun. Like most of us, he’s obviously ready for this year to end.

– Connor Murphy also had a bad game, which makes two stinkers in a row for him. Only Duncan Keith had a worse possession night for Hawks defenseman, and what was worst about Murphy’s night was his regression into balloon hands in his own zone. He’s got a lot of potential as a defensive defenseman I think, but his struggles to exit his own zone are going to need to improve if he wants to stake his claim as the Top 4 guy we all think he can be.

– Outside of the Sharp farewell tour, this game was drudgery. The Hawks had 13 shots about midway through the third, and never looked alive at all out there. They finished with 20 shots, but I’d be hard pressed to describe any more than two. The highlight of the game was the two free chalupas and one cheesy gordita crunch I got in my Taco Bell order, which are currently calling my name from the microwave, the disgusting animal I am.

That’s it for the home games this year. In a game against a desperate rival, the Hawks rolled over, which doesn’t really deserve anything more than a shoulder shrug at this point. The last one’s tomorrow, and you should join Adam Hess for that one.

It’s been a pleasure writing for you all about this Hawks this year, despite the performances on the ice. We’ll be back at it for the playoffs and postmortems soon enough.

Beer du Jour: Dogfish Head Oak-Aged Siracua Nera.

Line of the Night: I didn’t catch the actual quote, but Brian Campbell suggested that the Hawks need a “character guy” like Andrew Shaw or Danny Carcillo during one of the intermissions. The perfect summary of this brat-fart season.

Everything Else

Game #77 – We’re Pretty and Sick, We’re Young and We’re Bored– Hawks 3, Sharks 3 (Sharks Win Longest Toenail Clipping Launch)

By John Pullega 1957 0

Box Score

Hockey Stats

Natural Stat Trick

The outcome may not have gone the Hawks’s way, but that was the most exciting game I’ve watched since the first two. There’s more than enough to take away from this one, so let’s get to it.

– We’ll start with Victor Ejdsell. For a guy whose first game saw him on the top line between Saad and Kane against a team still fighting for home ice advantage, he looked utterly pristine. We were worried about his skating, but Ejdsell assuaged our fears with a long albeit syrupy stride. He had a quick one-on-one with Jones early in the first that he got nervous on, forgoing a wrister to try to get closer and finish with a weak backhand. But outside of that hiccup, his first period was close to flawless.

He finished the first with a stunning 61+ CF% (26.05 CF% Rel) and a couple of good passes and set ups. He ended the game with a strong 51+ CF (12.59 CF% Rel) and didn’t have any huge diaper shittings. It’s only one game, but Ejdsell impressed me, especially with his passing. The only time I saw him plop in front of the net was during the first period PP, but otherwise, he maneuvered around in the high slot most of the time, looking to make plays. He’s someone to watch over the next five games, as he has the look of something useful.

– Speaking of useful, wouldn’t it be useful if fourth liner Alex DeBrincat would forgo his gritty bodychecking ways and just commit to scoring? The fact that he’s on the fourth line is a continuous personal affront, but hey, he set up the game tying goal there. I sometimes worry that Q putting him on the third and fourth lines will sour DeBrincat down the line, but I’m probably just projecting. Top Cat was outstanding with his passing and positioning as usual, but perhaps most impressive was a sequence late in the third.

After losing his stick, DeBrincat was bothersome until he read the puck as just unplayable enough in his own zone. He streaked to the bench, got a new stick, started a rush up the ice, and nearly scored on the play. And he’s only 20. Once he eats a few more sandwiches with Dylan Sikura, he’s going to be a force.

– I’m always going to be a curmudgeon about people who say that the Hawks miss Hjalmarsson and that Connor Murphy just isn’t up to snuff. Tonight was strictly a peep show for me, as Murphy was outright ruthless in all aspects of play. His CF% was a robust 52+ (15.12 CF% Rel), he scored a goal with a UNITY slapper, and he was far and away the most positively noticeable Hawks D-man on the ice. Don’t let Pat “Let Me Sound Out My O-Face Over Hits Unless Connor Murphy Does It” Foley fool you: Hertl’s goal ought to be laid at the feet of Gustafsson—who both misread the pass out of his oZ then couldn’t read Murphy covering for him—and Forsberg, who was wedgied by Hertl all alone.

And Murphy found himself playing with Gustafsson most of the game, which makes sense to me. Gustafsson—despite all the shit we give him—DOES have offensive instincts, and with Murphy’s burgeoning confidence, I can see this pairing working in the long term, provided Gustafsson makes at least some effort at defensive responsibility. It’s not perfect, but it makes sense on paper. And hey, Gustafsson led the team with a 57+ CF% tonight against a team rate of 43+, so you’ll take it.

– Aside from the Hertl goal, Forsberg looked decent. As always, he looked behind himself more often than a professional goalie should, but I’m always going to have a hard time being mad at him. The first goal was the result of Rutta playing “don’t touch the lava” in the blue paint, trying to cheat toward the far side of the net to cut off Hansen, who was covered pretty well by Oesterle, leaving Sorensen a gaping goal mouth on the near side. The second was off a faceoff win by the Hawks in the oZ, which then saw Seabrook turn the win over to Boedker, who passed to Shitty Kane #2, who then made Seabrook look like John Daly stumbling down a bunker to look for either his ball or a cigarette butt with a pull left on it, whichever requires less effort.

– Ragging on Seabrook these days is like shouting at the wind, but holy shit did he look like a bag of chewed cuticles tonight. He finished with a 28+ CF% at 5v5, and that’s WITH Keith. Keith himself had a 27+ CF%. I get the temptation to put the band back together, but Seabrook sucks and Keith isn’t the “America Runs on Duncan” Keith that’s a surefire first-ballot Hall of Famer anymore. If you’ve ever lamented the fact that you’ll be long dead before the sun burns out, just watch these two play together. It’s the same fucking thing. These two simply cannot play together next year if the Hawks want anything to do with a playoff run.

– Brandon Saad seems to be in the throes of a relative Renaissance. Paired with Ejdsell and Kane, he was aggressive and his passing was crisp. He fed Ejdsell a couple of prime chances, and finished with a Hawks-forward-leading 55+ CF%.

– Vinnie’s confidence continues to grow as well. He finished with a 53+ CF% and put on a one-man show in the third period, juking and jiving through defenders for a clean shot that Jones managed to stop. Fels said it earlier this month: We might have a Top 6 forward on our hands here.

Yes, the Hawks lost, but the younger guys looked good doing it. If Ejdsell can keep up what he did tonight, I would love to see him anchoring the third or fourth line next year, depending on what Kampf and/or Sikura end up being. Call me romantic, but I think there’s hope yet for this team.

Beer du Jour: Boulder Beer – Shake Chocolate Porter.  One of the best porters I’ve had in a while.

Line of the Night: “The Blackhawks won the first period, no question. That should have been a 3, 4–1 period for the Blackhawks.” –Burish during the second intermission, despite the Hawks posting a 43+ CF% and a 2/7 high-danger Corsi For percentage (i.e., the Hawks had two high-danger shots to the Sharks’s five)

Everything Else

Game #74 – Can Someone Tell Me When Something Good Became So Bad – Hawks 1, Avalanche 5

By John Pullega 1975 0

Box Score

Hockey Stats

Natural Stat Trick

The last three minutes of this game were the most pathetic display of hockey I’ve seen from the Hawks all year. The Hawks are officially and mercifully out of playoff contention. To the bullets.

– Let’s get the worst part out of the way. The last two goals the Hawks gave up were the direct result of defensemen flat out giving up. First, Seabrook watched the puck roll into the net on the empty netter. He half-assed his way back toward the puck as it exited the Avs’s zone, and only started busting it when he realized it was going to go in. A guy with his lack of speed cannot half-ass his way back to anything. Whether the Hawks had any shot at coming back is irrelevant. That sort of lack of effort would get anyone else (e.g., Connor Murphy) benched, but since he managed the Hawks’s only goal, and he’s Brent Seabrook, he’ll be right back out there Thursday. Unless he was hurt from the Comeau hit, his effort was simply unacceptable, especially with the “A” on his sweater.

Then, Oesterle found himself strolling back on the last goal after jumping into the play on the offensive end, watching Kerfoot pot an uncontested shot while he trailed like an unwanted puppy. Of all the things the Hawks have done this year, the last three minutes of this game may have been the most embarrassing.

– The whole giving up at the end thing really tarnished what was an otherwise decent effort. The Hawks clobbered the Avs in possession, posting 65+ CF%s in the second and third but, as is wont to happen when they play Varlamov, they simply couldn’t find the net. With the game still in reach, the Hawks managed to hit a post and Landeskog’s stick before the puck squirted out of the blue paint. At least some things never change, and horsing the Avs in possession and still losing looks like it’ll always be that shitty totem we go back to.

– Patrick Kane put his entire ass into this game for the most part. He was flying around the ice and drew so much attention on the PP that Seabrook managed a half slapper all by himself for the Hawks’s only goal. And even though Varlamov stopped it, watching Kane wind up for a FUCK YOU slapshot in the third was kind of cathartic.

– Whatever offensive upside Gustafsson has is buried by his complete inability to do anything right on defense. His whiff on a clearing attempt in the blue paint in the second nearly cost the Hawks a goal. He took a completely unnecessary icing penalty in the first. Then, also in the first, after jumping in on the play and taking a shot, he failed to get back, leaving Seabrook all by himself on a 2 on 1. Oh, and he had the lowest Corsi for the Hawks tonight, with a 42+ at evens. The team rate was a 58+. Bravo.

– And Seabrook was right behind him. I get that this year is now officially lost, and so it’s time to experiment a bit. But there’s no doubt that Gustafsson and Seabrook absolutely cannot play together regularly. Gustafsson is too reckless and unaware, and Seabrook is too slow and apparently unmotivated to cover. If this is the second pairing next year, then Rocky’s going to have to get off his fat ass and make some phone calls.

– After clubbing the MacKinnon line in the first, Saad–Toews–Kane fell apart. Each ended below water in possession for the game, despite a strong performance against the MacKinnon line on the night. And Saad looked either nonplussed or uninterested for most of the night, especially on the Avs’s second goal. While MacKinnon’s patience was the key to that goal, watching Saad sort of float in the Royal Road while MacKinnon stick handled in anticipation for a lane surely didn’t inspire confidence. He, more than anyone, needs next year to be here.

The only thing to worry about over the rest of this year is preventing injuries and seeing what the younger guys can do. I’ll be keeping an eye on Schmaltz, Vinnie, Kampf, Top Cat, Saad (pray for Mojo), and Murphy.

Just eight more, then this nightmare is over.

Beer du Jour: Left Hand Milk Stout and Guinness

Line of the Night: “He has one of the longest sticks and he uses it so well.” –Peter McNab describing Alex DeBrincat, who, despite being named the Player of the Year by the Blackhawks, continues to play on the third line with Artem Fucking Anisimov and Tomas Motherfucking Jurco.

Everything Else

Game #72 – The Blarney Stone Brings A Tear To Me Eye – Hawks 3, Sabres 5

By John Pullega 1846 0

Box Score

Corsica

Natural Stat Trick

Kent O’Brockman once said that on St. Patrick’s Day, “Everyone is a little bit Irish, except of course for the gays and the Italians,” which is why you’re stuck with me for the wrap of this horseshit game. Let’s get to it and keep it brief, as there’s drinking to be done. To the bullets.

– When it mattered most, the Hawks dropped all of the corned beef they’d been cooking. After a ho-hum first, the Hawks looked more like the Hawks we’ve paid for in the past than the Hawks we’re currently paying for, posting a nice 69+ CF%. But the wheels came off in the third, as the Hawks got pantsed in possession by the (now second) worst team in the league, getting pasted for a 37+ CF% at evens. I assume that like many of us, they were looking forward to doing anything but subjecting themselves to Blackhawks hockey, and it showed.

– On his special day, our Large Irish Son had what could best be described as a mixed bag of a game. Murphy found himself on the third pairing with Oesterle and looked spry early, leading the Hawks with three shots on goal in the first. He also ended the game with a 65+ CF% and looked to be more aggressive on the rush, crashing and joining the play deep more often than I’ve ever seen.

But he also found himself on the ice for all three of Buffalo’s 5v5 goals. He was partially to blame for the Sabres’s first goal, as he overcommitted on Reinhart on the far boards. This, coupled with Patrick Sharp getting caught staring at whatever it is washed up wingers playing to a three-fourths-full stadium in Buffalo look at, gave Reinhart a gaping lane through the Royal Road to Ristolainen, who swept a pass past Jordan Oesterle and onto Pouliot’s backhand for a messy goal. The other two came off tips from Nicholas “Don’t Call Me Jean” Baptiste, so it’s hard to blame him for that. Still, we’ll have to watch going forward to see what it is Murphy might be. I will die on the “he’s the best D-man the Hawks have” hill, but there are some questions that I have regarding his awareness and positioning. Certainly not giving up hope, but there are questions.

– Highmore–Schmaltz–Vinnie was world beating for the first two periods. Granted, it’s against Buffalo, but the speed and vision they showed was encouraging. Each ended well above the team rate in possession and showed a decent amount of chemistry together. They all need to add some meat to their respective asses if they want to compete against better teams in terms of possession, but with Vinnie’s speed and shot, Schmaltz’s hands and vision, and a sort of snarl that Highmore has shown over the last two games, this is a line to watch going forward, assuming they stay together.

– Brandon Saad’s woes continued today. He shanked a few opportunities right in front of the net and was trounced in possession, posting a 42+ CF% for the game (-12.10 CF% Rel). Again, he’s not one I’m willing to give up on, but it’s frustrating to watch him struggle. It doesn’t help that his linemates couldn’t be bothered to give a shit for the first half of the game, but it’s not an excuse.

– I was four beers in by the end of the first period, but even I couldn’t believe that Alex DeBrincat was playing with Stonehand Tommy and Stonefoot Artie for this one. Alex DeBrincat isn’t a fucking third liner. I know that he hasn’t had much offensive luck over the last 10 or 12 games, but how does putting him on the ice with a guy who can’t move and a guy who can’t stick handle solve that? I guess it’s hard to figure out where to put him if you’re committed to 20–19–88, but with talent like his, it seems like you’d want to nurture it, not dampen it.

– I seem to get every J-F Berube start these days, and I always say some variation of, “He looked good for a guy who allowed more goals than good goalies allow.” I’ll say it again about today. The first goal was more on Murphy and Sharp than him, the second was on a fluke bounce on the PK, and the last two were off high-traffic tips. I’m not sure what else he can do, and I’m curious to see whether he’s the guy backing up Crow next year. I’d want to look at more tape, but he just seems more in control when he’s out there than Forsberg.

– Toews scored his 20th goal today, which was off a big rebound from Every Fraternity Chapter’s President Chad Johnson. He’s been on a nice roll offensively lately, which is nice to see as the season winds down.

– Foley had all the energy and faith of a man who had just gotten pick pocketed at his church on Good Friday, which makes for interesting listening. Sort of like a high school football broadcast by a student whose crush rejected him for homecoming. But watching him froth over a picture of a Sabres’s fourth liner punching some other hockey player I can’t be bothered to look up in the face while stereotypical Irish music played in the background during a stoppage was the most hilarious thing about this game, hands down.

Just 10 more of these things to go. Happy St. Patrick’s Day to you all today, Happy St. Joseph’s Day to the rest of you for tomorrow. The end is mercifully near.

Beer du Jour: Guinness, because Italians don’t know how to make beer.

Line of the Night: “Let’s see how green his tongue is at about midnight tonight!” –Foley on Adam Burish

“Ehhhh. . .” –Konroyd’s response

Everything Else

Game #69 – Crack A Smile And Cut Your Mouth And Drown In Alcohol – Hawks 4, Bruins 7

By John Pullega 2117 0

Box Score

Corsica

Natural Stat Trick

Each effort more useless than the last. To the bullets.

– Brad Marchand, acting on every instinct to be the biggest, wettest garbage bag of human shit possible, likely ended Anthony Duclair’s season today, and perhaps his career with the Blackhawks. Pat and Eddie went out of their way to say that it looked like an accident, but I don’t know how they came to that conclusion. Here it is in slow motion:

And full speed:

The full-speed shot makes it look even more intentional, with Marchand leaving his feet and slinging his arm at Duclair’s head. With Marchand’s pedigree as a pus-filled ass polyp, you have to assume that it was at least partially nefarious, as it looks like Duclair is in his sight the entire time. But with Marchand playing as well as he has and the Bruins on a playoff run, don’t be surprised to see him get maybe a game suspension.

As for Duclair, what a horrible way to end his year. He’d had a rough go of it lately, and now this. Season in a nutshell.

– Duncan Keith had one of the worst games I can remember since he came up all those years ago. His bad passing, poor positioning, and inability to strap in his jock led to the Bruins’s first three goals, respectively. He and Seabrook were on the ice for three of Boston’s four PP goals as well.

He’s obviously lost a full step, and without him, the Hawks have only Murphy who has any potential to play defense as a defenseman. We knew going in that the Hawks would need to rely on Keith, so if this is what he’s going to be, the next few years are going to be drudgery.

– Erik Gustafsson had a hot and cold game. The offense was on display early, as he set up Toews on a tip, buried a goal from the blue line, and set up Highmore with a gorgeous shimmy on the far boards followed by a slick pass through the Royal Road. But he also let Pastrnak behind him for Boston’s game-tying goal (and wasn’t helped by Brent Seabrook, who let human plantar wart Brad Marchand soft-shoe his way around him effortlessly) and looked generally lost in the defensive end.

Gustafsson is a fine player to have when you have four or five other guys who are obviously better than him on your team, and when you’re paying him $1.2 million over two years, not per year. But if this is one of the guys that the brain trust is going to lean on next year, this team is fucked.

– John Hayden looked good coming up to replace Vinnie. Other than his unnecessary fight in the first, he showed strength with the puck and seemed to fit decently with Schmaltz and DeBrincat. The Hawks are going to have to decide whether he’s going to be a scoring power forward—which was sort of the point of sending him down in the first place—or a big body who drags his dick around looking for fights. If it’s the latter, this team, again, is fucked.

– Credit to Kampf for setting up the Hayden goal. He had a nice strip and an even better pass off the far boards to spring Hayden.

– Congrats to Highmore on his first NHL goal. Like Hayden, I’m still not sure what he’s supposed to be, but he didn’t look particularly bad today.

– As is becoming more common, Berube got hung out to dry on most of his goals. The stat line is going to look horrible after being out there for six, but I’m not sure what he’s supposed to do with the defense that’s in front of him.

We’ve got 12 more. And if the Hawks decide that the defensive corps that they dressed tonight is what they’re going with next year, the next 94 games are going to be one gigantic Giordano’s fart.

Beer du Jour: Coffee and Eagle Rare.

Line of the Night: “They’re getting going north fast, and it’s coming down your throat.” –Adam Burish during the pre-game, describing the Bruins’s transition game.