Baseball

Well that was a fun few months, wasn’t it?

Honestly if you had asked me back at the end of October what my hopes were for a good White Sox off season I would have told you I would’ve been satisfied with the team adding somewhere in the neighborhood of 5-8 WAR by plugging up the Black Hole of Sadness that was RF, DH and the 5th starter positions.

After the past few winters and the lack of anything that could be described as “remotely exciting,” my expectations were not enormous, despite this off season looming as the type that could be critical to make the last step from “rebuilding” to “competing” a reality. Which is understandable, as you can only watch guys like AJ Reed and Dylan Covey so long before your soul becomes jaded and calloused.

So when the Sox blew the market open just before Thanksgiving by signing the best (switch hitting) catcher on the market in Yasmani Grandal to a 4-year, $73 million dollar deal I nearly drove off the road and through the razor wire-covered fence separating me from the Air National Guard base in Atlantic City. Thankfully that didn’t happen, because then I would’ve missed out on the Sox hot pursuit of Zack Wheeler. While not ultimately successful, the rumors of the contract offered to Wheeler showed that Rick Hahn truly was not going to be fucking around this winter.

The Sox also traded for Nomar Mazara to play in a potential platoon in RF this season, which hopefully assures positive production out of the right field position for the first time in what feels like decades. The trade itself initially didn’t move the needle very much for me, but after reading between the lines of what Rick Hahn has said about Mazara’s potential and how little the Sox committed to the position financially makes me think there might be bigger things down the road for that spot in the OF (man George Springer would look good out there).

Lest anyone think Hahn was done, he then went and solved the 5th starter spot by welcoming back Gio Gonzalez to the South Side for a 3rd time on a 1 year deal. It doesn’t really need to be said, but Gio compared to the dreck that had been oozing out there every 5th day is a drastic upgrade to the staff. A few days later, Hahn put an end to the narrative that the Sox would never deal with a Scott Boras client by inking Dallas Keuchel to what is essentially a 4-year deal with club options. Keuchel isn’t Zack Wheeler, but he’s not exactly Jamie Navarro either.

At this point most of us figured that Hahn was about finished with signing people, and the majority of fans out there would have considered this winter to be a success. Yet Hahnta Claus had a few more gifts to deliver, the first showing up on Christmas day with the signing of Edwin Encarnacion to a 1 year deal worth $13 million with a club option for 2021.

Encarnacion is not the same player he was when he was batting .280 for the Blue Jays with 80 HR and 200 RBI. That being said he’s far from a league average player. While missing some games last season split in-between the Indians and Yankees due to a wrist fracture, Encarnacion was still able to mash 34 taters and knock in 89 RBI, all while maintaining a .344 OBP and ending the year with a 129 wRC+ rating. While his K rate has risen by about 4% in the last 2 seasons, his walk rate has stayed the same, which is what you’d expect from a player entering his age 37 season. If he can keep both at about 20 and 10% respectively there’s no reason to expect anything less than a 2.5 WAR season from him.

This is a sneaky-solid signing for the Sox, as Encarnacion has essentially been the same player for the last 8 years. Never less than 30 home runs in a season, and always right around an .875 OPS. His splits work pretty much the same against pitchers of either handedness, which solves some issues the Sox had against right handed pitching last season.

This also creates a hydra option at DH for Ricky Renteria, as you now have Encarnacion, Jose Abreu, Yasmani Grandal and James McCann available for the position. Managing Abreu and Encarnacion’s workload this season should be fairly simple work and keep both of them fresh throughout the year. It’s also an enormous upgrade at DH, and Encarnacion has the distinct chance to become the best hitter the Sox have played there since Jim Thome got run off because Ozzie and Kenny Williams fucking hated each other.

So at this point Hahn had solved the issues in RF, DH, 4SP and 5SP. Fuck it, may as well avoid the service time questions about Luis Robert by signing him to what amounts to an 8 year deal and buying him out of all his arbitration years. This deal at it’s core is very similar to the ones Hahn signed Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Timmy Anderson and Eloy Jiminez to. By betting heavily on what is essentially your future, the Sox get cost certainty for their payroll and potentially room to expand it the next two seasons.

This also all but guarantees that Robert will be the starting CF for the Sox on opening day, which makes the potential starting outfield look like Eloy/Robert/Mazara which is infinitely more palatable than what last year’s Eloy/Engel/A Department Store Mannequin.

With the starting outfield now pretty much set, Hahn added a solid bullpen arm in Steve Cishek on a one year deal for $5.25 million with a team option $6.75 million. Cishek had two good years with the Cubs, taking on a pretty hefty workload with the dumpster fire state of their bullpen. He racked up 134 innings in two seasons with a 2.55 ERA. He held righties to a minuscule .183/.260/.293, and his numbers against lefties weren’t to the point where he’s a specialist (.217/.367/.361).

While his peripherals sound a few alarm bells with a 4.54 FIP, some of that can be attributed to the sheer amount of work he was forced into with the Cubs. His strand rate was in line with his career averages, as were his BB and K rates, so the hope is with more workload management he can stave off any regression in the Sox bullpen.

So as it stands right now, the Sox opening day roster looks something like this:

C: Grandal/McCann

1B: Abreu/Encarnacion/Grandal

2B: Garcia

SS: Anderson

3B: Moncada

LF: Jimenez

CF: Robert

RF: Mazara

DH: Encarnacion/Abreu/Grandal

SP1: Giolito

SP2: Keuchel

SP3: Cease

SP4: Gonzalez

SP5: Lopez/Kopech/Rodon?

CP: Colome

RP: Marshall

RP: Herrera

RP: Cishek

RP: Bummer

 

Now that’s a lineup that will not only put some butts in seats (glares at Kenny Williams), but will give the Twins and Indians notice that the Central division is no longer a two horse race. For the first time in what feels like forever, hope blooms on the corner of 35th and Shields. How long that will last will depend on whether the Sox horrible injury luck persists into the 2020 season, and whether or not Hahn has the flexibility to trade or sign for the last few pieces needed for that final leap. It’s time to have fun watching Sox baseball again, and it couldn’t have happened at a better time considering the state of the other sports teams in Chicago. Game on!

 

 

Baseball

Hey, look! Some of the money got spent!

Honestly, I cant tell you how surprised I was to open up my twitter app last night during the 49ers game and see the following come across my feed:

At first I had to double check it wasn’t some asshole’s parody account (though the Bruce Levine one is pretty damn funny), and when it began showing up on MLBTR along with other beat writers it seemed the Sox had actually signed him. So now what?

Dallas Keuchel is not the same pitcher he was four years ago when he won the Cy Young for the AL with the eventual World Series winning Houston Astros. He is, however, an expert sinkerballer and a guy who generates ground balls at an astounding rate. Keuchel’s career average for GB% hovers just a tick under 60% (59.2% to be exact), which is second only to Marcus Stroman in the league for the last five years.

This is a very good thing, as The Down Arrow is not exactly a pitcher friendly park. Having an innings-eater who gets hitters to pound the ball into the dirt is a very handy thing for the Sox to have. With both Reynaldo Lopez and Lucas Giolito living life at the top of the strike zone, someone like Keuchel will go a long way to preventing Luis Robert’s hamstrings from flaming into dust his rookie season. It’s also gonna mean a lot more work for Tim Anderson, so here’s hoping he’s been working on his AL-worst fielding percentage this winter.

In addition to all the ground balls, Keuchel has thrown more than 150 innings (not including last year’s shortened season due to not having a contract until June) in all but one of his seasons, so durability is not an issue for the guy. Having a quality pitch framer for him last season in Tyler Flowers (skypoint) helped him bring his K/9 back up above seven for the first time in four years, so Yasmani Grandal should be able to continue that trend.

To top that off, he has a career ERA+ average of 110, which for comparison we turn to this tweet from @MrDelicious13:

https://twitter.com/MrDelicious13/status/1207999683861327878?s=20

 

With the last two signings, Keuchel and Gio Gonzalez (at least statistically speaking) immediately become the 2nd and 3rd best pitchers on the Sox rotation. It also means the days of seeing Ross Detwiler and Dylan Covey serve up plates of meatballs to opposing hitters are dead and buried. For the first time in what feels like eons the Sox will have major league quality starters at the 1-5 spots in their rotation. Granted Dylan Cease and Reynaldo Lopez are still unknown quantities at this point, but they’ve both shown flashes of dominance thus far in their careers and (at least in Cease’s case) are still valued members of The Future™.

This also creates a glut of potential starters for the Sox going forward, as the impending returns of Michael Kopech and Carlos Rodon from Tommy John surgery creates a scenario where the team has the flexibility to make some trades for a proven bat provided everyone stays (or comes back) healthy. It wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if Hahn uses this as a reason to start Kopech in the minors as a way of both building up his arm strength and recapturing a year of service time. I’m assuming the Sox opening day rotation looks something like this:

  1. Lucas Giolito
  2. Dallas Keuchel
  3. Dylan Cease
  4. Gio Gonzalez
  5. Reynaldo Lopez

 

Finally I can look at the 4th and 5th starter spots and not feel like someone just scrubbed my eyes with a urinal puck. What a great feeling, lets keep it up!

In other interesting news, Dallas Keuchel is repped by none other than Jerry Reinsdorf’s arch nemesis Scott Boras. This explodes the narrative that the Sox were never interested in doing business with Boras clients, or at the bare minimum presents a new path forward for the Sox front office in the way they pursue free agents in the off-season. It also inches the Sox payroll close to the $100 million mark, with Keuchel’s contract for three years, $55 million (for an AAV of about 18 mil per). It also has a vesting option for a 4th year if he hits innings pitched numbers in the 2nd and 3rd year of the contract. With Keuchel turning 32 before the season starts that puts him at 36 in the 4th year of the deal which might look a little iffy but fuck it, it’s not my money.

So the Sox still need another bat (unless you’re totally wowed by Cheslor Cuthbert, and if you are I’d like to congratulate you on surviving this long with head trauma) and most likely another bullpen arm (Hello Dellin Betances!), but even if none of those things come to pass we can finally say the Sox have had a successful off-season. It doesn’t quite wash away the disappointment of losing the MannyDerby last season, or make me forget that Odrisamer Despaigne and Yonder Alonso were things last year, but it goes a long way towards making me hopeful that this rebuild is not going to stretch on ad infinitum.

Good work, Hahn and co. Now don’t jerk around with Luis Robert’s service time, because I’ve seen enough of Adam Engel starting in CF to last a lifetime.

Baseball

I told myself I wasn’t gonna fall for it again. I wasn’t going to get excited about anything that Rick Hahn has to say about offseason targets or the money they plan on spending or who might be in play for the Sox to sign as a free agent. Yet here we are, listening to him with reporters at a spa in Arizona talk about potential targets for the offseason and the needs of the White Sox in both the near and long term.

“Part of what we were trying to do and what we were trying to make clear was that the eye level has changed around here, meaning that we are a logical destination for premium talent,”

This isn’t really a surprise on the face of it, as Hahn isn’t going to say anything less than that because every agent in the MLB Universe is listening for anything that could give them an edge in negotiations. The fact that Hahn even mentions “premium talent” implies that they’ll be in on everybody this winter, as pretty much everybody in the top tier the Sox theoretically SHOULD be in on.

Which brings us to today’s target. Someone that I wasn’t going to bother with, but now much like Charlie Brown with Lucy and the football, I’m trying to convince myself that THIS TIME IT WILL BE DIFFERENT. I know deep in my heart it’s gonna get yanked away again, but hope springs eternal. So let’s charge headlong at that football and talk about Anthony Rendon.

Why Him?: Did you see him in the postseason this year? (judging by the ratings up until Game 7 the answer is probably no) The man was a machine, posting a 1.10 OPS during the entire run, with 3 HR and 10 extra base hits to go along with his 15 RBI. Postseason stats not good enough for you? Well he’s been one of the best hitters in the majors the past 3 seasons. Since 2016 he’s been an unstoppable hitting force, 4th best in the entire league.

In that time he’s slashed .294/.384/.528 with 103 dingers and 403 RBIs. The only player higher than him in RBI totals is Nolan Arenado and his home park has the same gravity as the International Space Station. Oh, Rendon has also been worth 24.2 WAR in that time span. The closest White Sox player in that category is newly resigned Jose Abreu with 9.4 WAR. On top of that Rendon is a plus defender at the hot corner, totaling +18 DRS in his career with the Nationals. UZR likes his defense even more, having him at a +32.1 for his entire career.

He also smokes right handed pitching, batting .289 against them in his career, and over .300 in the past few years including a .320 mark this past season with 24 home runs. There’s nothing this guy can’t do at the plate. He’s an instant upgrade for the White Sox batting order, and would most likely hit 3rd after Yoan Moncada and before Jose Abreu or Eloy. If you can’t get excited about that batting order, then you’re most likely suffering from a critical case of being dead.

Why Not Him?: Theoretically there should be nothing in this category. The guy is amazing and instantly makes the team better. In reality? He’s represented by Scott Boras, so there’s the history between him and Jerry Reinsdorf right off the bat. He’s also by far and away the best hitter on the market, so the Sox will have to contend with multiple suitors for his services and we’ve seen how that played out in the past.

He’ll also be entering into his age 30 season, and if you’re super worried about Jerry getting the most value for his investment (I’m not) regression would be a concern. Also he plays 3rd base, so defensively you either move Yoan back to 2B or you ask Rendon if he’s willing to move to 1B from time to time or DH. Or perhaps you try Moncada in RF which kills two birds with one stone, other than the fact that he’s never played in the OF so you’re resigning yourself to Luis Robert basically playing the entire field by himself.

These are all nitpicks, however. None of this should stop Hahn from making Boras an offer that Rendon can’t refuse as he instantly makes the Sox an offensive threat and puts the entire central division on notice that they’re coming for them.

How Much Is This Free Resort Weekend?: Now we come to the rub. Boras has talked openly about trying to get Rendon a deal in the range of what Nolan Arenado got from the Rockies when he signed his extension last season (7 years and $234 million). The comps between the two are similar, with Arenado being a year and a half younger than Rendon.

Rough guess here, but I would think Boras would have a goal set of 7 years and $250 million giving his contract an AAV of around $35 million. Would the Sox be willing to go $8 million more a year then what they offered up to Manny Machado in their failed pursuit last offseason? I think we all know the answer is no, when in reality it shouldn’t matter in the slightest. The team payroll sits at a meager $55 million right now after Abreu accepted his qualifying offer yesterday leaving plenty of space for what Hahn needs to add and extend on the Sox roster.

There should be no reason Rick Hahn and Jerry can’t take a realistic run at Rendon this offseason, and signing him would be a cause for great celebration among the White Sox faithful. It would also show the fanbase that they aren’t fucking around this time and the story of Jerry saying “finishing second pays just as much” is a total myth. Not to mention it certainly would solve a lot of the team’s offensive woes. It makes a lot of sense for the Sox, and would make a whole lot of dollars for Jerry to field the first winning roster in over 7 years. It’s gonna be different this time, right?

Hope springs eternal.

Baseball

I talked earlier about the need for the White Sox to fortify the front end of their rotation earlier by adding Zack Wheeler via free agency. What if the Sox could accomplish the same thing without Rick Hahn having to spend nearly as much of Jerry Reinsdorf’s precious precious gold? I’m gonna propose something pretty wacky and radical, but it fits the Sox modus operandi perfectly, plus it gives Don Cooper his favorite thing in the world: a reclamation project.

Time to turn Chris Archer’s career around.

I know we here at FFUD talk a lot about pilfering from the Pirates stash of available players. Wes already did it with Starling Marte, I’m gonna propose taking Archer, and Adam has a plan to free Josh Bell from PNC Park that you’ll hear about tomorrow. The reason we’ve decided to raid the Pirates is twofold: They’re gonna rebuild again, and they have a history of being dumb. If Hahn can take advantage of both, he absolutely should.

Why Him?: Based solely on his stats from last season, one would think there really isn’t a good reason the Sox should be doing this. By any metric available, Archer had a terrible season, going 3-9 with a 5.19 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP and a ginormous 4.19 BB/9. His FIP was a career-high 5.02 which suggests he earned every bit of that ERA. Taking that into account the Pirates would not be dealing from a position of strength in trade talks, but why would the Sox want him?

This is purely a buy-low scenario for Hahn and the Sox. Archer has been an excellent pitcher in the past, and has pretty nasty strikeout stuff when his accuracy doesn’t abandon him completely. He’s only two years removed from a 10-win, 200+ inning effort with the Rays on a pretty terrible team. He also struck out 249 batters that year, the third season in a row of him having 230+ strikeouts. He also had a tolerable 4.03 ERA, which his 3.40 FIP suggests was aided and abetted by bad D behind him and playing in what essentially is the tip of a concrete condom.

His velocity still sits at almost 95 MPH on his four seam fastball, so there hasn’t been any losses there. The Pirates tried to get him to use a two-seamer last season to predictably terrible results. Once he ditched it and went back to the four-seam, his results in August were much better, as he had a 3.00 ERA in four starts that month. He also struck out 27 batters in those 18 innings before he was lifted with shoulder issues in the 4th start.

This is also the perfect time for the Sox to make a play for him, as his contract jumps up to $9 million from the $6.25 that it was two seasons ago. For a team that (based on what they’ve said publicly) is looking to shed payroll and enter a full rebuild mode $9 million off the books for minor league talent would most likely be fairly attractive. In addition to that, Archer has a team option for $11 million next season with a $250K team buyout, so the Sox wouldn’t be saddled with a shitty contract if Cooper isn’t able to fix him.

Why Not Him?: Archer was shut down at the end of August with shoulder inflammation, which is never good for a pitcher. In addition, it was never discovered what actually caused the inflammation so there is the possibility that there is something structurally wrong with his shoulder that the doctors have not been able to find so far. Also, he did just get his skull caved in for the first four months of the season last year, so there’s a lot of inherent risk in making this move.

How Much Is This Free Resort Weekend?: Here’s where it gets fun, because it’s probably not going to take a ton to pry Archer away from the Pirates. His career worst year pretty much seals that. In addition, the fact that the new GM has a chance to flip a player that the guy who had the job before him gave way too much away for (Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow? Holy shit, that really WAS a dumb fucking move. No wonder the guy got fired). Everybody likes making the guy who had your job before you look like a moron, so he can trade Archer to the Sox for some middling prospects as a salary dump. Perhaps Blake Rutherford and Luis Gonzalez would be enough to wet the whistle of the new Bucs GM, whoever it ends up being.

This is a pretty out-there idea but it fits the way the Sox like to operate. If the dice roll comes up eleven, the Sox could end up with the kind of guy who is a solid #3 starter for them at a very controllable price (which Jerry loves). If they make the deal and Archer is still getting shelled they can cut bait and only be out of $250K next season, which I’m sure they’d just trade to the Rangers with some international bonus pool money anyways. Let’s get weird, people!

Baseball

Here’s another player who fits the Sox needs almost too perfectly, so getting my hopes up that they sign him is basically folly. Let’s talk about him anyways because it’s snowing outside and what else are we gonna do on a Monday morning?

We’ve gone over ad nauseam about the pathetic output the Sox have gotten out of the RF spot the past few years, but here’s one more stat to hammer that point home: In the past 3 seasons, the White Sox are 29th out of 30 for production out of the RF spot in the major leagues.

They’ve accumulated a whopping 1.3 WAR from RF in those three years, and if Daniel Palka wasn’t playing out of his mind in 2018 this number would probably be negative. In comparison, the teams the Sox are chasing in the Central have gotten 6.9 (nice) and 12.0 respectively (Indians and Twins).

Marcell Ozuna, come on down!

Why Him?: Mostly because he’s young(ish) and hits with pop from a premium position of need for the White Sox. Last season was something of a down year for Ozuna, having a .241/.378/.472 slash line with a 110 wRC+ and 2.6 WAR. He also a +2 DRS for the Cards last season, though he split time in left and right field.

So for a right fielder those aren’t the greatest numbers in the world but even with his down season he still hit 29 bombs in a pretty cavernous Busch Stadium. He’s also only 2 years removed from a .312/.376/.548 season where he hit 37 dingers and drove in 134. In addition, he also won a gold glove that season to go along with his AS Game appearance and Silver Slugger Award.

Honestly, if he were to split the difference between last season and his 2017 one those stats alone would be enough to merit a very hard look by the Sox front office. A .275/.370/.495 line would mark the best production for the White Sox RF position since Jermaine Dye was gunning runners down from out there.

He’s also entering his age 29 season, so it’s not like the regression monster will becoming for him anytime soon. Moving from Busch stadium to The Down Arrow should also help his power numbers. With only 330 to the Sox bullpen in left as opposed to the 338 in Busch you would think that’s worth another few home runs. In short, the Sox should rectify their mistake of not attempting to trade/fleece the Marlins a few years ago by signing him to a 5 year deal.

Why Not Him?: There’s always the question of cost, as Ozuna will likely be the most expensive outfielder available on the market this winter. On top of that, the Cardinals extended him a qualifying offer last week, so any attempt to sign him will cost the Sox a draft pick (though that shouldn’t matter in the slightest, but it’s Rick Hahn).

He’s also not amazing in the outfield, but the Sox are going to have to decide if they’d rather hit the shit out of the ball or have a gold glove caliber outfield because unless you’re the Astros you can’t have both. A +25 career DRS score and a +4.7 career UZR/150 rating isn’t bad, and it’s certainly an upgrade over what the Sox had been trotting out there. Having a fully armed and operational Luis Robert patrolling center field would help as well.

Also, his facial hair is very confusing to me. What is going on here?

How Much Is This Free Resort Weekend?: Fangraphs has Ozuna getting a four year deal for at total of around $70 million with an AAV of about $17.5. Assuming the Sox are always swimming upstream in the free agent market due to the ever-present cheapness of their owner I would think a 4 year deal at $19 million per season would be around his asking price.

He’s also not represented by Scott Boras, so there’s another point in the Sox favor as we all know the long an contentious history between him and Jerry Reinsdorf. The Cardinals are said to be interested in bringing Osuna back, which could potentially create a bidding war for his services though this could just be conjecture dropped by his agency to up his price.

With not much OF help available in the free agency pool in 2021 (other than Mookie Betts, and if you think the Sox will be in on signing him, I’ve got a wall in Colorado to sell and build for you) and not much in the way of assistance coming from the farm system anytime soon it would seem that Ozuna is the best option for the Sox via the open market. I’m not really interested in Nick Castellanos (even though Wes did a pretty good job of selling him to me) as he’s not an OF long term and the Sox have plenty of first baseman. Yasiel Puig could be an option, but I don’t think him and Renteria are gonna get along very well. That leaves us with Marcell, and you can do a ton worse if he’s your right fielder for the foreseeable future.

Get it done, Rick.

 

 

Baseball

The White Sox need another starter, perhaps even two. The immanent return of Michael Kopech should satisfy one of those needs, but successfully returning from Tommy John surgery is no sure thing. In addition to that, you can almost guarantee that his innings are going to have a cap on them, as the most he’s ever thrown in a season is the 140 he tossed before his elbow went “TWANG” in 2018.

So Kopech fills in for Ivan Nova, but that still leaves the Black Hole of Sadness that is the Sox 5th starter. Carlos Rodon won’t be back until August at the earliest, and he faces the same questions Kopech does. Reynaldo Lopez hasn’t cemented his spot in the rotation of The Future™ as of yet, either. Besides, you can never have too much starting pitching (or so I’m told).

So that brings us to the next person on the White Sox offseason shopping list. He’s a front line starter who comes with some risk attached but (other than Gerrit Cole) is the youngest available free agent starter on the market. I of course speak of Zack Wheeler.

Why Him?: First off like I said above, he’s the youngest starting pitcher available on the market this winter that the Sox would realistically (as much as I want Cole or Strasburg) pursue. He has that first round draft pick pedigree that Rick Hahn loves so much (though to be fair that’s a hangup of most GMs) and would immediately make the Sox starting rotation a thing to be feared.

He’s had an ERA of under 4.00 every year but 2017 (when he missed an extended period of time due to various maladies), has a 22.8% K rate, an 8.5% BB rate and has been a 4+ WAR player the last two seasons.

His fastball sits in the upper 90s with movement, and he has a nasty slider that he throws in the low 90s for his strikeout pitch. He also has a plus curveball and an average changeup that he doesn’t throw a whole lot in the zone. He also has a 44% ground ball ratio compared to a 32.5% fly ball that would play well at The Down Arrow.

Him lining up with Giolito, Kopech, Cease and Lopez gives you four starters that will rack up strikeouts at a hilarious pace, and would hopefully take some of the onus off the bullpen to have to eat up so many innings. Plus with him just entering his age 30 season, the threat of a downturn in velocity seems pretty low.

Why Not Him?: First and foremost, injuries. Wheeler has had issues staying healthy, as he’s never broken 200 innings in his career. In 2015 he had Tommy John surgery to repair a torn UCL which cost him all of the 2016 season. In 2017 he got tendinitis in his bicep which cost him some time on the IL, then after than he had a stress reaction in his right arm (a stress reaction is basically a broken bone that hasn’t totally broken. I had to google it.) which resulted in him being shut down in August. He also missed time this past season with a shoulder impingement.

In addition to the injury risk, he’s another righty which with Carlos Rodon out would make the current starting rotation entirely right handed. In and of itself this is not a terrible thing, as if the stuff is good then the results will be good. Still it’s not the worst thing in the world to be able to vary the handedness of your starters from time to time. Especially when the Indians and their bevy of left handed mashers is in your division.

He was also issued a qualifying offer from the Mets this last week, so any attempt to sign him after he turns it down results in the Sox sending a 2nd round draft pick to NY. Thus far, Rick Hahn has been loath to part with ANY of his draft picks…but the time for the Sox hoarding them is well past.

How Much Is This Free Resort Weekend?: FanGraphs has Wheeler looking at a four-year deal with about an $18 million AAV running at a grand total of just under $80 million total. This contract would blow past the $68 million the Sox gave Jose Abreu as the highest ever issued by the team (pathetic). Being that the Sox are most likely going to have to overpay due to the fact that the South Side isn’t currently the mecca for free agents the Northside is, I would think four years and $85 million might be enough to get Wheeler in a Sox jersey.

If the free agent market is slow enough, his injury history could potentially suppress that number even further. Either way, the $85 million would probably be the cap that Rick Hahn would set for himself, especially with all the other needs (DH, RF, 2B potentially) to be filled out in addition to starting pitching. I’m a big fan of Wheeler, and I think he’d fit in nicely here. It’s a bit of a stretch, as I see the Yankees becoming a problem if they miss out on Gerrit Cole and I don’t see Hahn outbidding them, like, ever. If the dominoes fall the right way however, Wheeler could be another pillar of an awesome pitching staff.

 

 

 

Baseball Everything Else

Now begins the season outside of the season, and potentially the most important one in the tenure of Rick Hahn’s career as general manager of the White Sox. With the team looking poised to possibly contend in 2020, Hahn must now shift gears. Trading away players like Chris Sale is easy. Everybody wants a Cy Young-caliber ace who strikes out 1.5 people per inning. Now Hahn has come full circle, as he was once the seller now he must be the buyer (Darth Vader quote goes here).

As with anything involving Jerry Reinsdorf and the Sox front office the first, last, and only question will be about money. Is he willing to spend it? The implication after the failed pursuit of Manny Machado was that THE MONEY WILL BE SPENT, most likely in ways that our mere fan-brains could not possibly understand. Now it’s time for them to live up to that bold declaration by rolling down the MLB equivalent of Rodeo Drive and making it rain.

What do the Sox really need? Well based on every metric that counts any type of offensive production, the Sox were the god awful-est at the DH position and any outfield spot where Eloy Jimenez is not currently standing, waving at his mom.

On top of that, other than Yoan Moncada and Zack Collins (who is an unfinished product in and of himself) the Sox are very light hitting from the left side of the plate. So who fits the bill?

Enter: Yasmani Grandal

Why Him?: Because he checks almost all the boxes above, and some that I didn’t even mention. Grandal is a switch hitting catcher who hit 17 dingers from the left side of the plate last year. He also tagged 11 of them from the right side, so it’s not a situation like Yoan has where all his pop comes from a single half of the plate. In addition to that, he’s an excellent pitch framer, 6th best overall in the league for any catcher who caught more than 1700 pitches. In the “Runs From Extra Strikes” category (which converts strikes to runs saved on a .125 run/strike basis, and includes park and pitcher adjustments according to Statcast) he’s the 3rd best in the league (the fact that Tyler Flowers has become one of the top framing catchers in the league will not be discussed here.) In addition, while he only had a DRS score of +1 last season, the previous 3 went +9, +17 and +13.

Despite James McCann‘s assistance with turning around the career of Lucas Giolito, he was dead last in framing last year which cost the White Sox 16 runs. Ask Reynaldo Lopez or Dylan Covey (if you can get through to him in his padded room where he mutters “sinker didn’t sink” to himself over and over) what they could’ve done with a few more strike calls going their way last season.

He also can play 1B and DH, which would result in a combo of Jose Abreu, Zack Collins and Grandal at DH at any point in the season which would instantly provide the best output at that position since before Adam Dunn shuffled off into the sunset. Yes, I am operating under the assumption that Jose will be back next season because duh. Did I mention he hits the shit out of the ball?

Why Not Him? Age maybe? He’s entering his 30th year on the planet this season, so by the time his deal is up he will most likely be 35ish? I dunno, this signing makes far too much sense for the Sox to pull it off. Can’t wait for the news media to interview Kenny Williams at spring training in his Mercedes golf cart and have him tell us all if he took off his solid gold Oakley sunglasses you’d see just how shocked he was. /wanking motion

How Much Is This Free Resort Weekend? Ahhh to the meat of the problem for the Sox: he’s not going to work for free. Last offseason he shot down an offer from the Mets (always a wise plan) for four years, $60 million and settled on a one year “prove it” deal with the Brewers. He then proceeded to mash almost 30 home runs with 80 RBI and was worth 5.2 WAR.

I would guess the bidding would start around $22 million for at least four years, and that’s the base. Grandal bet on himself last season and put up when some others thought he was crazy. The Sox had interest in him last year, and with a majority of the stuff they need contained in one human being Rick Hahn needs to find a way to get this done. Offer him four years, $90 million with a team option for a 5th at $25 million/or a $3 million buyout. I would think that would be enough to seal this deal, because I want to see what Giolito and Lopez can do with all those extra strikes Grandal can frame for them. Not to mention the two starting pitchers Hahn should sign this offseason (don’t worry, they’re next).

Baseball

Now we come to the bundle of pitchers who were asked to work far more and far harder then they probably should have due to the Black Hole of Sadness that was the #5 starter for the White Sox this season. In reality, the Sox should have sucked it up and used an opener for the 5th spot and it took them all the way until September after Carlos Rodon and Lucas Giolito had been shelved for the season. Yet they’ll tell you the front office is always at the forefront of new stats and ideas in MLB.

At any rate, the Sox bullpen over all was pretty solid all things considered. They ranked 15th out of 30 in the entirety of MLB, and were worth 2.7 WAR total. This is a drop from 2018 when they were 8th best in the league with 5.2 WAR, but some of that can be attributed to the 45 extra innings they were forced to throw this season.

There were a few breakouts in the pen this year, most notably Aaron Bummer and Evan Marshall. Both took large steps forward in both their individual performance and solidifying the future of the Sox bullpen overall. Also Carson Fulmer was here.

Much like the rest of the Sox position players, I’m going to pick and choose who we discuss here mostly because nobody wants to read 15,000 words about the Sox bullpen which is what this would turn into if I did a rundown of each person who pitched out of the pen this season (AJ Reed would be here too, and that ain’t happenin).

THE BULLPEN

Alex Colome

4-5 Record/30 Saves/3 BS

2.80 ERA/1.06 WHIP/67.6% Strand Rate

55K/25BB/7 HR

0.6 WAR/4.08 FIP

Tell Me A Story: When Rick Hahn shipped Omar Narvaez to Seattle in exchange for Colome back in November, my eyebrows raised up a little bit. The Sox were definitely in need of a closer after sending Joakim Soria to the Brewers at the trade deadline in 2018 and Colome certainly fit the bill. With an additional 2 years of team control remaining, and a few catching prospects in the minors in addition to Wellington Castillo it seemed to be one of those trades that fit perfectly for both teams.

Colome rewarded the Sox for the trade by not blowing his first save until June 26th against the Red Sox, a game he eventually got a win for when the Sox came back in the 10th inning. He was nothing if not consistent, throwing his cut fastball 70% of the time regardless of hitter handedness. When it was on, it spun away from righties, and burned into the hands of lefties alike. He didn’t get a lot of strikeouts, averaging less than 1 per inning, but he induced a lot of weak contact and ground balls. With a 4.08 FIP and a 67.6% strand rate it would seem that Colome is living on the edge of falling apart completely, and while some of us were expecting it, the explosion never truly came.

Contract: Colome is in his final year of arbitration in 2020, and is projected to come in at about $10.3 million.

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: It seems this will be a welcome back for Colome, as the Sox had a few chances to move him at the deadline to a contender and chose instead to stand pat. There is a possibility he’s moved during the winter meetings, but I don’t see the market for closers being anything different in December than it was in July. $10 million is a pretty high price for a closer who’s peripherals say he’s close to imploding, but with not much other than Kelvin Herrera with experience shutting down games the Sox are probably gonna ride it out with Colome.

 

Aaron Bummer

0-0 Record/1 Save

2.13 ERA/0.99 WHIP/82.3% Strand Rate

60K/20BB/4 HR

1.3 WAR/3.14 FIP

Tell Me A Story: Here we come to the first success story out of the Sox bullpen, Aaron Bummer. This was his 3rd year with the big club since being drafted by the Sox in 2014 after holding out on the Yankees by returning to college. Bummer seemed to be a known quantity in his first two seasons, posting 4.5ish ERAs with similar walk and strikeout numbers. He started the season down in Charlotte and didn’t see his first action until the end of April. He never looked back, as he posted career high numbers in innings pitched and strikeouts.

He also became the most reliable lefty out of the Sox bullpen since Matt Thornton departed for the greener pastures of Boston. Lefties only hit .178 against him, and righties didn’t fare much better at .188. He credited his success this season to an increase in velocity of about 2 mph. This extra heat has helped his fastball move a little more, and added some drop on his cutter. He also ditched throwing the slider, only tossing it 6.6% of the time in 2019 down from 37% in 2016.

The last month of the season was the least successful for him, but it’s understandable as he almost doubled the innings he threw from 2018 so some of that can be attributed to wear and tear. Despite the rough September, this season is nothing short of a success for Bummer, and the Sox may have found themselves another piece of The Future™

Contract: Bummer earned $550,000 last season and is under team control until 2025. He doesn’t hit arbitration until 2022.

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: There was some scattered talk about the Sox selling high on Bummer and moving him at the trade deadline, but that seemed more like wishful thinking from opposing GMs than actual heat. Bummer’s career year in 2019 has earned him a high leverage spot out of the pen to start 2020 and I expect him to stay there for awhile.

 

Evan Marshall

4-2 Record

2.49 ERA/1.30 WHIP/84.8% Strand Rate

41K/24BB/5 HR

0.5 WAR/4.30 FIP

Tell Me A Story: Evan Marshall had a very solid year out of the bullpen for the White Sox this year, giving up 14 earned runs in 50.2 innings. While not quite the innings eater that Aaron Bummer was (or nearly as flashy), Marshall was there in a pinch, and with an almost 85% strand rate he ended up being the righty go-to guy that Kelvin Herrera was acquired to be.

Marshall’s 4.30 FIP somewhat suggests that his stats this season were somewhat due to batted ball luck, and his 2.66 BABIP lends a lot of credence to that. The 1.30 WHIP is a little up there for a high leverage reliever, but certainly not to the point where the Sox would be looking to cut bait on him.

Contract: Marshall will enter his first year of arbitration with the Sox in 2020, and he’s projected to earn $1.3 million.

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: Marshall has certainly earned himself another shot at middle relief in 2020 with his performance this season. That being said, Kelvin Herrera looked pretty good down the stretch and there are a bunch of prospects in AAA with hotter arms than Marshall so he doesn’t exactly have a firm grip on the 7th or 8th inning job. What he does have going for him is a cheap, team-controlled contract so he’s going to be given every opportunity to succeed in 2002.

 

Kelvin Herrera

3-3 Record/1 Save

6.14 ERA/1.61 WHIP/65.9% Strand Rate

53K/23BB/8HR

0.4 WAR/4.58 FIP

Tell Me A Story: Kelvin Herrera was signed in the off-season to a 2 year, $17 million dollar deal by the White Sox. This was seen as the atypical “buy-low” type of move for Rick Hahn, as he was getting a former closer with 3 very good years of production on a shitty KC team who happened to have an issue with the lisfranc ligament in his left foot. This kept his activity in the off-season at the same level as MY off-season activity, namely drinking beer and reading comic books. When the season started up, Herrera was noticeably favoring his foot in his delivery though he said that the foot itself felt “fine” it very clearly was not.

During his best years with KC, Herrera was known for pinpoint control with very high velocity locking down the 9th inning. Through the month of June he was anything but that, logging a 7.63 ERA and a 1.81 WHIP with batters hitting .368 against him.With the lisfranc injury still fucking with his delivery, it was no surpirse when he hit the IL in the middle of July with an oblique strain as pitchers who overcompensate for an injury usually create another one.

The time off did him well apparently, as when he returned from the strain in August he hit the ground running. The entire month of August Herrera only gave up 5 ER and all of those came in a single blowup against the stupid ass Twins. If you take that game out of the equation he finished the season with a 1.76 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP with an 11.9 K/9. That’s more like what Rick Hahn was looking for when he signed Herrera to the deal which initially looked like a horrible overpay.

Contract: Herrera signed a 2 year deal at $8.5 million per, with a team option for $10 million in 2022 with a $1 million dollar buyout.

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: Not much choice here but to welcome him back and hope that the version of Herrera that showed up after the IL stint is the one the Sox get for the duration of the contract. If so, the 8.5 million will be very worth the price even to the point of potentially picking up his $10 million option in 2022 if Colome stumbles and Herrera charges in. If he doesn’t look like that, then expect him to spend a lot of time in the bullpen playing candy crush on his phone.

 

Jimmy Cordero

1-1 Record

2.89 ERA/0.97 WHIP/79.9% Strand Rate

31 K/11 BB/3 HR

0.4 WAR/3.78 FIP

Tell Me A Story: After Carlos Rodon’s elbow vaporized like the Death Star in June the Sox found themselves with an extra spot on the 40-man roster and a need for pitching. Enter: Jimmy Cordero, fresh of his release by the Seattle Mariners. Rick Hahn scooped him up and sent him to Charlotte to get some work in with the Sox minor league pitching coaches. He responded well, pitching 16 innings and giving up one measly run. Considering the fact that balls were leaving the yard in Charlotte like Twins fans avoiding a shower that’s no mean feat.

He was called up to the big club in July after Kelvin Herrera went on the IL with an oblique strain and picked up right where he left off in Charlotte. He ended the season with a 2.89 ERA and a sub 1 WHIP. His 79.9% strand rate was 3rd best on the team, and he pitched 38 innings in 2 months showing that Ricky Renteria had no issue throwing him out there whatever the situation. Not too shabby for a guy on his 3rd major league team in less than 6 months.

Contract: Cordero is still under team control through 2024 and he’s not arbitration eligible until 2022, He’ll make $550,000 next season.

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: Based on what we saw during his limited audition this season combined with the fact that he makes the league minimum makes me think Cordero is going to receive every chance to make the team outta spring training. The kid definitely pitched like he had a chip on his shoulder, and you can do a lot worse in MLB with $550,000.

Josh Osich and Jace Fry

Tell Me A Story: Osich and Fry were basically two sides of the same coin for Ricky Renteria this season. Two left handed pitchers with pretty electric stuff but not nearly enough control and too many damn walks. They ate a lot of innings this season thanks to the #5 starter being made of straw and edible paste, but their WHIP and ERA left something to be desired.

Contract: Osich is arbitration eligible this season and estimated to make $1 million. Fry is still under team control and will make the league minimum.

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: Fry will be back next season if the Sox don’t sign any relief depth in the off-season (which better not fucking happen), so odds are he’s back in Charlotte. Osich will most likely be let go

 

THE REST

The rest of the Sox bullpen was filled with “some guys” that should not be back on the major league roster next season unless things go horribly wrong. The exception to this might be Ryan Burr, as his stuff is pretty impressive if he can keep it under control. He’s also very, very cheap which we all know is how Jerry Reinsdorf loves his pitchers.

 

 

Well, that’s about it for me this season. I’ve really enjoyed covering this team in what was an exciting but ultimately disappointing season. That being said, the future is very bright and I hope to see you all back here soon as we discuss the myriad (hopefully) of signings Rick Hahn has made during the winter meetings. Thanks again to Sam for giving me a shot here in the baseball universe, it was a fucking blast.

 

Cheers all,

 

AJ

 

 

 

Baseball

Now to the last of the starting pitchers, the guy who I thought was going to be a depth starter and a placeholder for Dylan Cease at the start of the year, and ended up leading the Sox in innings pitched after Carlos Rodon’s elbow evaporated and Lucas Giolito got shut down early in September. All things considering, Nova earned his paycheck this year, despite a very shaky start.

2019 Stats

34 Starts  187 Innings

11-12 Record

4.72 ERA  4.98 FIP

114 Ks  47 BB

5.49 K/9  2.29 BB/9  1.45 WHIP

2.0 WAR

 

Tell Me A Story: The Sox and Rick Hahn traded for Nova back in December of 2018 during the winter meetings. They sent 19 year old Yordi Rosario and $500,000 international bonus pool money to the Pirates for Nova and his $8.5 million in what was essentially a salary dump for Pittsburgh.

At the time I was intrigued by the move, as it really didn’t cost the Sox anything in the way of immediate assets and provided what Don Cooper loves best: a reclamation project with good stuff but no real sustained success. Nova was an international signee of the Yankees way back in 2004 when he was a teen in the Dominican Republic. He debuted in 2010 for the Yanks, and quickly turned heads in 2011 and 12 when he went a combined 28-12 in his first two full seasons.

After that, the consistency waned considerably the rest of his tenure with the Yankees and he finished with them in 2015 with a 5 ERA and a 6-11 record. He was traded to the Pirates thereafter and the consistency issues followed him West. Last year he had his best run in a Bucs uniform with a 9-9 record and a 4.14 ERA on a less than stellar team.

His first few weeks with the Sox were…less than inspiring. His first 9 starts saw him net a 2-4 record with a 7.12 ERA. He wasn’t really walking many or giving up a lot of dingers, his stuff wasn’t being located very well and that shit was getting hit all over the place.

After Carlos Rodon went down with his elbow issue, however, something clicked into place for Nova and he went on a pretty solid if not excellent run. Through the heat of the summer months he was locked in, starting 19 games and going 7-7 with a surprising 3.28 ERA. The true highlight was his start against the Cubs, holding them to 5 hits in the start, walking 1 while striking out 5 and getting an assist from Eloy with another bombshot into dead center that bounced off the fan deck and gave the Sox a 2 run lead Nova would keep safe.

If you take out the first 6 weeks of the season, Nova had a good year for someone who would be a 5th starter on most other average teams with a 3.80 ERA and a 9-8 record. Something that many teams would gladly take out of the 5 hole in their starting rotation. Unfortunately for the Sox, after Rodon went down Nova was more like the #2 starter with the inconsistencies of Reynaldo Lopez, the Rookie-ness of Dylan Cease and the absolute fucking black hole that was whatever started on the 5th day.

All in all, I would say that this was $8.5 million well spent on a guy who was acquired to be a 5th starter and ended up leading the team in innings pitched. Nova doesn’t strike a lot of people out, but he keeps the walks down and when effective keeps the ball in the park. You could (and the Sox did…hello Dylan Covey!) do much worse.

Contract: Made $8.5 million in 2019, the last year of his deal. Unrestricted free agent in 2020.

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: As well as Nova performed this season in the position he was put in by the Sox, he’s just not going to be necessary next year. His spot in the rotation will most likely be filled by Reynaldo Lopez as Michael Kopech, Gerrit Cole (Hi Fels!) Dylan Cease and Lucas Giolito take the other spots with Carlos Rodon and his rehab waiting in the wings. Thanks for your help in making this summer a little more watchable, Ivan. Best of luck to you in Toronto.

 

Baseball

With the position players done, we move on to the starting pitching staff where we begin with what might be the biggest success story in White Sox (pitching) history. More on this after the stats jump. To The K-Mobile!

 

2019 Stats

Games Started: 29

14 Wins 9 Losses

3.41 ERA 1.064 WHIP

228 Ks 56 BB 24 HR

11.62 K/9 3.43 FIP

5.1 WAR

 

Tell Me A Story: In 2018, Lucas Giolito was the worst starter in all of Major League Baseball. That’s not hyperbole at all, it’s a statistical fact according to Fangraphs. Out of  57 pitchers who met innings pitched requirements, Giolito ranked 57th. Having personally watched a few of his starts live last season, it was a ranking well earned.

With that in mind, expectations for this season were not very high. When he started the first five games of the season with a 5.32 ERA, most were ready to write him off as not a viable core piece for The Future™ being built by Rick Hahn.

Then he went and ripped off nine-straight starts where he didn’t give up more than three runs and struck out at least seven batters. Even more impressive was the improvement of his control, only walking 16 batters in those nine starts. His changeup was electric, with the kind of downward motion that Johan Santana used to beguile Sox hitters with. His fastball was located in the upper reaches of the zone, just at the spot where a hitter can’t possibly catch up to it but it still looks like it could be a strike.

He had one burp (unfortunately) against the Cubs where he gave up six, but he rolled into the All-Star break with an 11-3 record and a 3.15 ERA. This was easily good enough for him to be selected to his first ever All Star game (along with the guy he credits for some of his improvement, James McCann), and ranked him as the 2nd best pitcher in the AL after future White Sox signee (I hope) Gerrit Cole.

After the All Star break ended, Giolito ran into some trouble. From the middle of July till the end of August his walks-per-9 spiked from around 1.55 to almost 2.50. The changeup that was dancing so well at the end of July was just spinning in the middle of the zone and getting pummeled by opposing hitters. Most pitchers that like to live at the top of the zone are susceptible to the long ball, but as long as their out pitch moves out of the zone it’s a line they can walk. That wasn’t happening in Gio’s case, and the results were showing.

As is his way, Giolito dove into the Sox video archives of his starts and dissected his mechanics to find out what his issues were with the release point in his change that were causing it to get slaughtered. Whatever he found, it worked. From his start against the A’s on August 11th (where he gave up two in six innings and took the L while striking out 13) to when the Sox pulled the plug on him in the middle of September with a lat strain Giolito had a 3.33 ERA in seven starts while striking out 70 and only walking 10.

From the 57th starter in the league last season to the 10th overall this year, Giolito is deserving of a few Cy Young votes, and is one of the three players nominated for Comeback Player of the Year Award. He’s also become the surprise gem in the Sox pitching rotation of The Future™. The most impressive thing about Gio’s stats this year (other than the BB and K rates) is the fact that very little of his success is due to batted-ball luck. His FIP is 3.43, which is only .02 higher then his actual ERA, and his BABIP sits at a cool .275, where in comparison Gerrit Cole’s is at .273.

Credit to Giolito for not imploding in on himself like a dwarf star and becoming the latest in a long list of high hype pitchers that never live up to expectations. After the disaster that the 2018 season was for him, his hard work in the off-season should be the boilerplate for Sox pitchers, and something that Reynaldo Lopez should look to emulate this winter.

Contract: Giolito earned $573,000 in 2019 and is under team control in 2020. After that the arbitration years kick in and things will get exponentially more expensive. Look for Rick Hahn to attempt to buy him out of his arbitration years like the Sox did with Tim Anderson and Eloy with a 5-6 year extension.

Welcome Back Or Boot In The Ass: This isn’t even a consideration, as Giolito has become the ace that the Sox have been looking to develop since before Chris Sale suited up. As a certified member of The Future™, Giolito will be here for the long haul and should become the Obi-Wan Kenobi of the Sox starting rotation from here on out, teaching the young Padawans his secret Jedi pitching ways. Sorry, just watched the new Star Wars trailer for the 300th time and am still buzzing.