Baseball Everything Else

Those With Glass Ceilings Should Not Throw Baseballs Too Much Or They Will Inevitably Get Hurt: Ranking The White Sox Top Prospects

By Adam Hess 1789 0

Now that we have arrived at the MLB All-Star Break, it’s about as good a time as ever to review the list of the White Sox’ top prospects, because outside of the obvious candidates at the major league level, it’s not like there is too much more to get excited about with this team. So AJ and I took a stab at ranking our own personal top-15 prospects, drawing our line at 15 because getting there is hard enough and trying to get beyond it is splitting hairs, especially given all the long-term injuries in the Sox’ system.

Our lists matched up in some places but varied a lot in others, so we will divide this up into tiers and just have our individual rankings and justifications attached, along with MLB Pipeline’s ranking for the players for a bit more context. Please remember that neither of us are scouts but also might be the smartest Sox Writers you know. Also the Pipeline rankings are gonna change a lot soon but we are doing this now. Thanks.

The Cream of the Crop

Luis Robert, OF

Ranks: Adam – 1; AJ – 1; Pipleine – 1 (5 in MLB)

Adam: I have thought for a while that Robert, along with Yoan Moncada, has the highest ceiling in the entire system, even higher than Eloy’s. Robert basically grades with 60’s across the board and probably has 70 grade speed. He’s gonna be a great hitter and an excellent defensive center fielder that might find his way into MVP conversations in the future if it all goes according to plan.

AJ: This one pretty much sets itself as Robert continues to own every level he’s sent to now that he’s healthy. The only things holding him back from making the September callups is his health and Service Time Manipulations.

The Elite Arms

Michael Kopech, RHP

Ranks: Adam – 2; AJ – 3; Pipeline – 2 (16 in MLB)

Adam: Kopech is probably close to as good as any pitching prospect in baseball on pure talent, and the only real questions about him are how he will bounce back from Tommy John surgery and, to a lesser extent, how much his control issues will hold him back. If he gets back on his trajectory from before the surgery, this is a future ace.

AJ: Elbow or now, we’ve seen what he can do. The only question is which category he falls in: Successful Tommy John or Not.

Dylan Cease, RHP

Ranks: Adam – 3; AJ – 2; Pipeline – 3 (18 in MLB)

Adam: Everything I said about Kopech might just apply to Cease, minus the TJ and with a bit more concern about the control. If his change flashes as good moving forward as it did last week, the control will matter less.

AJ: We saw Wednesday what that nasty curveball can do when it’s thrown at the bottom of the zone. Once he starts locating his fastball, his off speed stuff will make him something else.

The Future Big Leaguers Who Could Be More

Nick Madrigal, 2B

Ranks: Adam – 5; AJ – 4; Pipeline – 4 (39 in MLB)

Adam: I liked the Madrigal pick in 2018, but in some ways it lacked imagination. There’s little doubt about his bat and glove, and he’s practically a lock to be a big league regular, but if he can’t hit for power there are legitimate questions about this ceiling. If he does hit for power, he could be a star.

AJ: The kid can flat out hit (though not for much power), and his eye for pitches is Joey Votto-esque. Seems like he plays plus defense at 2B, which pretty much sets the Sox infield in stone for the foreseeable future. I’d expect him to compete for a job next year.

Andrew Vaughn, 1B

Ranks: Adam – 4; AJ – 7; Pipeline – N/A

Adam: Pipeline hasn’t ranked him on the Sox top 30 yet because they haven’t added the 2019 draftees to the league and team rankings. But Vaughn can mash, and might be something of an Eloy clone in the bigs. If he can play plus defense, this guy is another potential star. At the very least he should be a good or very good player.

AJ: I wasn’t super excited about Vaughn being picked up in the first round by the Sox, but by any measure he was the best player available at the time and that’s my strategy for every draft ever. Vaughn can hit for power, has a good feel for the zone and plays average D at 1B. He profiles out to a Konerko type player, and I’m OK with that. Worst case scenario is he’s moved in a Reverse Quintana for controllable pitching assets later (Hello Marcus Stroman!)

Dane Dunning, RHP

Ranks: Adam – 7; AJ – 6; Pipeline – 5

Adam: Doesn’t have the lively stuff of Cease and Kopech, but every pitch is solid or plus and his plus command should make him a lock as a starter in the bigs, with the only real question being how high his ceiling is. Shares the TJ recovery concerns, though.

AJ: Another elbow casualty. Dunning was mowing people down in 2018 before the elbow strain, and was looking like he’d be in Charlotte by the end of the year with a possible September call up. Now we’ll have to wait till Spring Training next year to see if he’s still got it. The tools are all there, however.

Zack Collins, C/1B/DH

Ranks: Adam – 8; AJ – 5; Pipeline – 11

Adam: I have a lot of concerns about Collins, mostly about his defense and K-Rate, which are pretty big concerns for me. But the elite plate approach feel for the strike zone, along with his power, will keep him an MLB lineup for years, I think.

AJ: Another player with an excellent eye for the strike zone. Pity Renteria would rather play Palka than give him time in the field. There’s still questions as to where he plays in the field, but we will never know until he gets consistent playing time.

Steele Walker, OF

Ranks: Adam – 6; AJ – 9; Pipeline – 10

Adam: Walker strikes me as an MLB regular all day. He can almost definitely play center field but hopefully won’t have to, and a a move to left will benefit him well. He has a plus hit tool with average power and has performed well against Low-A and High-A pitching this year. He’s the non-top-tier guy I’m most excited about, as my ranking makes obvious.

AJ: Walker has been destroying the ball lately, and plays a solid corner OF spot. Walker should be in AA by the end of the year, and start the season in AAA if he keeps hitting at this pace.

Other Guys That Made Both Lists

Micker Adolfo, OF

Ranks: Adam – 11; AJ – 8; Pipeline – 7

Adam: If Adolfo could’ve stayed healthy these past few years, he could’ve been a top prospect in baseball and in the bigs already. He has huge pop and a cannon of an arm to match, which will play in right field if his fielding stays solid. He just needs to stay healthy and his ceiling could be sky high, but with the health issues there are too many questions here raised by so much missed time.

AJ: Man I like this guy, but his elbow is made of paper mache and elmer’s glue. We haven’t really seen him at full strength, but I feel like when we do it’ll be Robert-like.

Luis Gonzalez

Ranks: Adam – 9; AJ – 12;  Pipeline – 9

Adam: While he’s struggled a ton in AA this year, that’s a hard league to hit in, especially with Regents Park in Birmingham as your home field. He’s only a year removed from murdering both levels of A-ball, though, so there is still reason for optimism here. I imagine he will make his MLB debut for a team other than the White Sox, though.

AJ: Another Sox prospect having difficulty putting the ball in play down in Birmingham. I like what little Ive seen of him so far, especially the 4 triples this year. I feel like this time next year he will be hovering around #5.

Luis Alexander Basabe, OF

Ranks: Adam – 10; AJ – 11; Pipeline – 6

Adam: Another guy with a high ceiling being dragged down by injuries. Similar to Adolfo, if he’d stayed healthy he might be in the bigs. Instead he’s been hurt, and then struggled at AA this year. Still could project as a solid RF in the future though, especially with a solid profile at the plate as a switch-hitter.

AJ: Is constantly hurt, and hit so shitty to start he got demoted to A ball from Birmingham. All the shiny tools are there to be a solid CF for the Sox but he needs to hit. The trip to Kannapolis woke him up, but he promptly got hurt again.

Konnor Pilkington, LHP

Ranks: Adam – 12; AJ – 14; Pipeline – 19

Adam: Similar profile to Dunning but the stuff is not as good. The control is not a concern, meaning if the stuff can play up he is back-end starter. At worst, he’s a fine bullpen buy or decent trade chip.

AJ: Every time I see his name I think of one half of The Ascension tag team in WWE. He’s moved pretty quickly through the lower levels, but probably tops out at “5th Starter, 7th inning” kinda guy.

Blake Rutherford, OF

Ranks: Adam – 13; AJ – 10; Pipeline – 8

Adam: I have a feeling that Pipeline ranking is going to keep with the trend and plummet again at the next update. He’s come on a bit more recently, but the power that some projected in the past hasn’t been there, and he can’t play center field. An outfielder who can’t play center and can’t hit for power is something of a bad outfielder. Another guy I think debuts for another MLB club.

AJ: Rutherford has rebounded from a disatrous start to the season and gotten himself to a respectable .262/.298/.371. That being said, the Sox have seemingly hundreds of OF who can OBPS their way to a sub .700 so the power is going to need to show up soon.

Made One List But Not The Other

Gavin Sheets, 1B

Ranks: Adam – 14; AJ – N/A; Pipeline – 17

Adam: I did not like this draft pick at all, and for a few years it just kept looking awful. He’s a 1B-only guy who hadn’t mashed when the one thing 1B-only guys need to do is mash. The bat is finally catching up, though, and he actually has finally been mashing the past few months. He’s another guy I think gets traded, specially now that he’s blocked by Vaughn. Getting him to AAA with the golf balls soon to boost his trade value could be wise.

AJ: Another 1B only Sox prospect, Sheets has decent pop but hadn’t shown it until this season.  Solid D at first, but hasn’t done anything to dissuade the Sox from taking Vaughn this year.

Alec Hansen, RHP

Ranks: Adam – 15; AJ – N/A; Pipeline – 14

Adam: Hansen went from potential top pick, to plummeting down the draft boards, to pitching like a top prospect, to getting hurt and then struggling (something of a theme, no?). I still have some hopes he can be effective in the bigs, maybe as a bullpen guy at the very least. And maybe some other team still likes the ceiling enough to take him in return for a piece the Sox will eventually need.

AJ: I didn’t choose Hansen for my top 15 as his control seemed to dive off a cliff.  If he can gain some semblance of it back, the stuff he possesses would max him out as a high leverage reliever in the Josh Hader vein.

Zack Burdi, RHP

Ranks: Adam – N/A; AJ – 13; Pipeline – 15

Adam: He was a first rounder because the Sox thought he’d be quick to the majors as a reliever, but then he got hurt and wasn’t quick to the majors. I can’t keep him in my top 15 due to injuries, but he could still be a future closer.

AJ: Plus fastball with control issues and Tommy John surgery. It’s like they’re all following a script. The initial reports of Burdi’s velocity demise may be unfounded, but his control issues persist.

Jake Burger, 3B/1B

Ranks: Adam – N/A; AJ – 15; Pipeline – 12

Adam: Too many injuries. At this point I just think of him as the guy the Sox got after missing on Jo Adell by ONE PICK!!! AJ says it better than I could, anyway.

AJ: Missing and presumed dead.

Guys Not On Our Lists That You Should Watch For

Danny Mendick is an intriguing guy to me. He’s something of a non-prospect and doesn’t show up on many lists, but all he’s done since being a 22nd round pick in 2015 is hit at every level he’s been to and consistently rise through the system. He also can play all over the infield. If the Sox non-tender Yolmer this winter, which I can see happening, Mendick is an intriguing potential replacement.

Bryce Bush is a 3B/OF who made noise after being picked in the 33rd round last year and then dominating rookie ball. He has struggled in Low-A this year and also battled injuries, but has had flashes of brilliance as well and is still just 19 playing at a full season affiliate, so there is hope yet. RHP’s Matthew Thompson and Andrew Dalquist were taken in the 2nd and 3rd rounds this year and have high ceilings, though they won’t pitch for affiliates this year. James Beard is an OF they grabbed the 4th round this year who can flat out fly and has a progressing bat, and has drawn Andrew McCutchen comparisons because his swing is similar and he has the hair to match. Bush is currently on Pipeline’s top 30 list for the Sox, and the other three should all be on the list once they update it in the coming weeks.

Getting real deep (and way off any top prospect lists), in the Arizona Rookie League, SS Jose Rodriguez has a .283/.306/.633 slash line, OF DJ Gladney has a .324/.366/.620 line, and 3B Bryan Ramos has a .375/.463/.625 of his own. Gladney is a former Sox ACE guy drafted out of Illiana Christian in the 16th round this year, while Rodriguez and Ramos are both former international signings. They’re all far away from the bigs but all could potentially be on this list in the future.

Our Lists, TL;DR’d

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Baseball

Series Recap – Sox Take 2 of 3 From Tigers: STONE COLD! STONE COLD!

By Andy Jonathan 1252 0

BOX SCORES:

Game 1: Rain Out

Game 2: White Sox 7 – Tigers 5

Game 3: White Sox 9 – Tigers 6 (12 Innings)

Game 4: White Sox 5 – Tigers 11

 

Wow.  Lots to talk about here, from Dylan Cease’s first ever MLB start and win, to Jose Abreu and Yoan Moncada refusing to let the Sox lose in game 2 of the doubleheader, to Reynaldo Lopez’ continued struggles in game 3 today.  There’s a lot to be excited about, and the double comeback win in game 2 is the kind of rally that fans of the team will remember for a long time.  It was FifthFeather in fact who tweeted that the game forcibly reminded him of the Christmas Blackhawks game in 2007 against the Oilers which was the birth of the Hawks tremendous run throughout the 2010s.  Let’s hope this is in that vein, as the core group of guys seems to have a little something special going on.  The quest for .500 continues, and the Sox edge ever closer.  To the bullets!

 

NUMBERS DON’T LIE

 

-I used the title above in reference to my favorite WWF moment ever, when Mick Foley won his first World Title on Monday Night Raw, January of 1999.  Foley (then in his Mankind persona) was facing off against The Rock (then the Corporate Champion of Vince McMahon) in a no DQ match.  Just when it looks like Foley is going to lose, the glass shattering beginning of Stone Cold Steve Austin’s music hits and the place goes apeshit.  Austin tees off on the Rock’s head with a chair and rolls Foley over for the 1-2-3.  It’s the loudest I’ve ever heard a crowd before, and Moncada and Abreu’s home runs in extra innings reminded me of this moment.  You could almost hear the glass break as Abreu somehow turned a low and away changeup from Nick Ramierez and pulled it into the Sox bullpen.  Just like on Raw, the Comiskey crowd goes ballistic and it gives me chills.  It’s probably the most exciting moment this team has had since Thome’s bomb in the blackout game against the Twins.  In a way, those 2 home runs may end up serving as bookends for the rebuild.  Let’s hope.

-Yoan Moncada also homered from both sides of the plate that night, the one from the left side being the most impressive (not just because it tied the game), as he absolutely murdered a cutter off Tigers closer Shane Green and put it 462 feet away from home plate.  I know the ball is juiced, but goddam that was a sight to behold.

-Lest we forget, Dylan Cease had his first ever major league start AND win.  He worked 5 innings, 4 of which were more than acceptable.  He came in the first, clearly bothered by nerves walking 2 and plunking one.  This resulted in the only two runs he gave up until he hung a curveball to Jeimer Candelario in the 5th.  He didn’t let that faze him, however, as he then mowed down Harold Castro with a nasty curveball after that.  He was still overthrowing his fastball, but I feel now with the first start out of the way that should abate.  His curveball is plus stuff, and his change has some sick movement on it.  I’m eager to see what he can do from here on out.

-It wasn’t all roses and dingers however.  Reynaldo Lopez had another shit outing, giving up 6 and only going 5.1 innings.  His off speed stuff just wasn’t where it needed to be, so the Tigers just zeroed in on his fastball and crushed it.  The bullpen didn’t fare any better, as noted arsonist Juan Minaya came in and promptly gave up 2 more runs.  Renteria didn’t have a whole lot of options however, what with the double header and extra innings games the previous day.

-Daniel Palka should never start in front of Zack Collins again.  If someone plays shitty defense at 1st base and bats below the Mendoza line, I’d rather have it be a prospect then the journeyman.  Seriously, Palka is hitting .022 right now.  What about him says “play him over our first round draft pick?”

-Yolmer Sanchez was heating up at the plate, so naturally someone stepped on his hand today and he had to leave the game.  Hopefully he doesn’t miss much time.

-Next up is the Cubbies and another chance to blow past .500 so I’m sure it’ll be a split.  Onwards!

Baseball

Series Recap – White Sox Take 2 of 3: Beer Me!

By Andy Jonathan 1275 0

BOX SCORES:

Game One: White Sox 6 – Twins 4

Game Two: White Sox 3 – Twins 10

Game Three: White Sox 4 – Twins 3

 

 

Full disclosure:  The picture above is of my friend Chris, with whom I have a running bet.  The bet is every time the Hawks play the Wild, or the Sox play the Twins each game is worth one beer.  We keep a running tally (well he does, and I question his accounting methods) and with how terrible the Sox and Hawks have been it’s become quite costly.  So for the Sox to take 2 of 3 from a scorching hot Twins team, well, that’s better than gold.  That’s beer.  Anyways, the Sox did indeed take 2 of 3 from the Twins.  I said in the preview that I would consider winning one of three a victory, so I guess taking the series is…ultimate victory?  I dunno.  Either way, the team and the fans should be very pleased after today’s rain delayed game.  I assumed (almost correctly) that after Giolito was forced out of the game due to the lengthy rain delay that the bullpen would implode and the Sox would lose the rubber match.  Evan Marshall tried with a little help from Leury Garcia (who had a bad case of the yips today), but Bummer and Colome were able to seal the deal.  To the bullets!

 

NUMBERS DON’T LIE

 

 

-Thankfully Moncada only missed one game after being drilled on his knee by Chris Sale last series, so that bullet got dodged as it were.  Looks like Tim Anderson is gonna be out 4 to 6 weeks thanks to a shitty Fenway infield and a high ankle sprain.  Losing him not only hurts the fun quotient of the team, but forces Leury Garcia into SS duty, which is quite the ask for someone who clearly has either a bum hamstring or a quad.  Both his errors today were due to his footwork and being out of position.  Hopefully the All Star break gives him the recuperative time he needs, as the Sox are going to need him down the stretch to keep the infield from becoming a clown parade

-Despite dropping off Yonder Alonso at the drive-thru at Goodwill, Zack Collins isn’t getting consistent playing time.  I don’t know what the idea was by bringing him up, but I can’t believe it was to watch Palka pulverize the infield dirt with ground ball after ground ball.  If you’re gonna have him up here, fucking PLAY HIM.  It can’t get any simpler than that.

-In other prospect news, it’s time to REJOICE, because Cease has risen from AAA to take the start against the Tigers Wednesday!  Good seats still available!  Seriously though, I am very excited to see what he can do against a semi-major league roster this week.  I fully expect him to get sent back down after the start for the All Star break, which is fine.  I just wanna watch that curveball make Nick Castellanos poop himself a little.

-Hoss Detwiler is better than Jose Berrios.  Just kidding.  It was nice to see the Sox be able to get to Berrios for a change, as in the past he’s had little trouble mowing them down one after the other.  Detwiler himself was…fine.  He was actually better than Nova the following day (not a super high bar to clear, but here we are), and I’d say he’s earned himself another turn in the rotation.  Just don’t forget Despaigne pitched well in his first start too.

– 2/3rds of Eloy’s hits this series went yard, which is exciting.  What is NOT exciting is that he got 3 hits, and is still parked below a .250 average.  I’m not being impatient, mind you, I just want him to bat .310 and hit another 25 dingers by year’s end.  No big deal.

-Now that Yonder Alonso is gone, I need someone else to shit on in each recap.  As nobody has been as terrible as him, I’m going with Ricky Renteria.  His lineups still suck, and his management of the bullpen (albeit slowly improving from the start of the year) is still terrible.  I hate being that “fire the coach” guy, but the evidence in support is starting to rack up, especially with how he’s handling injured players.

-Jon Jay has been a pleasant surprise so far, I’m just not expecting it to last.  The OF situation is still a dumpster fire, though Eloy had a nice sliding catch Saturday, and he even managed to not get hurt doing it.  Ryan Cordell is boring and bad.

-Next up is the Tigers of Detroilet, with the Sox now 3 games back of .500.  Sure would be nice to head into the All Star break with a winning record.  If that’s gonna be a thing, then 3 of 4 against the Tigers is the bare minimum, because you know the damn Cubs aren’t going to cough up 2 games to them.  Onward!

Baseball

Series Preview – Twins vs. White Sox: The Evil Has Landed

By Andy Jonathan 1356 0

                 VS

Records: Twins 52-38   White Sox 37-41

Gametimes: Friday – 7:10/Saturday – 3:10/Sunday – 1:10

TV: Friday/Saturday NBCSN – Sunday WGN

Uff Da: Puckett’s Pond

Pitching Matchups:

Jose Berrios vs. TBD

Michael Pineda vs. Chevy Nova

Kyle Gibson vs. Lucas Giolito

PROBABLE TWINS LINEUP

  1. Max Kepler – CF
  2. Jorge Polanco – SS
  3. Nelson Cruz – DH
  4. Mitch Garver – C
  5. Luis Arraez – LF
  6. Eddie Rosario – RF
  7. Jonathan Schoop – 2B
  8. CJ Cron – 1B
  9. Miguel Sano – 3B

 

PROBABLE WHITE SOX LINEUP

  1. Leury Garcia – SS
  2. Yoan Moncada – 3B
  3. Jose Abreu – 1B
  4. James McCann (C/DH)
  5. Eloy Jimenez – LF
  6. Jon Jay – RF
  7. Zack Collins (C/DH)
  8. Yolmer Sanchez (2B)
  9. Ryan Cordell (CF)

 

So the White Sox managed to avoid Total Disaster for at least a few days, but now it looms large again in their windshield with the arrival of the world destroying monster that is the…Minnesota Twins?  Yeah, no kidding, I don’t get it either.  What a difference a year makes.  This time last season the Twins were moping along in the middle of the AL Central, nothing really special.  Both their young breakout stars in Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton had soul crushingly bad regression years, so bad that they were both sent down to AAA.  One of the two (Buxton) turned his shit around and set the world on fire down there, only to be roundly ignored by Twins management in what can only be described as service time manipulation.  Miguel Sano continued playing shitty, then ended up lacerating his foot somehow, and spent the entire offseason recovering from surgery.  The difference between the two has continued, as Buxton has been mashing the ball, and Sano (having missed all of spring training recovering) has been striking out in approximately half his at bats.  Normally the Twins probably would’ve sent Sano back down, but due to a rash of injuries he’s been forced to work through his issues at the big league level.

Elsewhere on the infield, Jorge Polanco is raking at a clip that earned him a spot on the AL all star team next month.  He’s hitting a cool .321 with an over 900 OPS.  I don’t know how sustainable this is, as his career OPS is somewhere around the range of  .780, and his BABIP sits at .350, which hints at some regression coming.  That being said, he’s currently the most dangerous hitter in the Twins lineup along with Max Kepler, who’s corrected most of his K issues from last year, while retaining his power levels.

The Twins pitching staff is fronted by ace Jose Berrios, their best pitching prospect since Johan Santana rolled his way through the AL central.  He’s backed up by a career year from Jake Odorizzi (who the Sox miss this turn) who has somehow not let an insanely high fly ball rate turn into a bunch of gopher balls.  Reclamation project Michael Pineda continues his return from maladies that included tommy john and knee surgeries.  When healthy during his tenure with the Yankees he struck people out at a very high rate, but was susceptible to the long ball.  That continues this season, where his HR per 9 stands at an unsightly 1.67.  Next closest on the rotation is Kyle Gibson with a 1.25.

For the Sox, the main storyline right now is the injuries to Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada.  Timmy figures to be out at least a month with a high ankle sprain, while Moncada is dealing with a contusion to his knee.  Yoan figures to be day-to-day and I wouldn’t be surprised if he starts tonight.  If he can’t go, it would probably mean Jose Rondon taking reps at 3rd.  Zack Collins figures to get more playing time now that Yonder Alonso has been DFA-ed to the Big AAA In The Sky.  Who is starting on the mound for the Sox tonight is yet to be determined, but with no moves as of yet, it figures to be a bullpen game.  If Carson Fulmer can repeat the efficiency that he showed against the Red Sox the other day, perhaps letting him go 3 to 4 innings might help an overtaxed bullpen.  Ivan Nova goes Saturday, with Giolito taking the bump Sunday.  They’ll all have their work cut out for them, as the Twins lead the AL in most offensive categories and score runs at an alarming rate.  Anything but a sweep here will probably feel like a win, so Lets Go Sox!

 

 

Baseball

The Long, Slow March To The Future – White Sox At The Halfway Mark

By Andy Jonathan 1109 0

So here we are just about the halfway point of this halfway season in what feels like the 8th season of the White Sox rebuild.  There’s quite a bit to unpack , but what does it all really mean?  I feel like there’s been measurable progress this season for the first time ever with the rebuild.  Not that there wasn’t progress with the team before, but it was all measured by what trades and prospects that Rick Hahn was able to hoard either in the offseason or at the trade deadline.  Now this season we are starting to see some of the core of the rebuild coalesce and start to cut their teeth on some series wins.  So let’s dig in and see what’s what, shall we?

The Sox currently sit in 3rd place in the AL Central with a 37-41 record, a whopping 14 games behind this weekend’s opponent, the dirty Twins.  They’re also 6.5 games out of the wild card conversation, though just a few weeks ago they had that number down to 2.  They’re 4th from the bottom in the AL in runs scored with a -63 run differential, and third from the bottom with a team 5.03 ERA.  On the surface, this looks pretty terrible and would make me want to not watch another Sox game for the rest of the season let alone write about them.  Yet the games have been pretty fun thus far, and they only sit at 4 games below .500.  What does it all mean?

I think it’s safe to say that based on the squad that took the field at the beginning of April that this White Sox team has performed slightly above expectations.  ZIPS projections had the team at 71 wins for the entire season, a .444 win percentage.  The Sox current win percentage sits at .474, which projects out to a 77-85 season.  Compared to last season’s 62 wins that’s a drastic improvement.    The Sox have made this step forward even while dealing with Carlos Rodon’s exploding joke elbow, or in spite of the fact that they find their 5th starters for the rotation under the Green Line L tracks next to the Hockeenight home office.  The projections also included Jon Jay, who just this past week finally found his way into the Sox outfield.

We’ve seen solid progression from Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson, and Eloy Jimenez.  Lucas Giolito has transformed into a legitimate top of the rotation candidate.  James McCann is going to be an All Star this season.  There’s a lot to be excited about, yet I can’t help but feel a little frustrated.  With all of the bad luck the Sox have endured, i feel like an 81+ win season was right there for the taking if the front office had any interest in doing so.  Instead we got the ridiculous song and dance with Manny Machado, which lead to nothing other than Yonder Alonso being set out by the trash yesterday.  If the Sox front office had any interest in putting a winning product out on the field this season Ivan Nova would be somewhere else, as would Jon Jay.  The Sox starting rotation would have an ERA under 6, and the OF would have a combined WAR of more than 3 (2.3 of which belongs to Eloy).  Dylan Cease wouldn’t continue to waste pitches down in AAA, working towards some invisible finish line that Rick Hahn has set for him.  Instead we are left to wonder where the Sox could’ve been at this point. It’s frustrating, but also worrisome at the same time, as the Sox will need to add outside talent to the core if they have deigns on competing next season and I don’t feel like Hahn knows how to add via free agency.  That’s further out, however.  Closer to now is the back half of the season.

Looking to the 2nd half of this season depends entirely on how long Yoan Moncada and Tim Anderson are out.  If it’s a lengthy absence for either (or god forbid both), the 77 win season isn’t gonna happen.  The Sox -61 run differential is also begging for a market correction, as a team with offensive stats like that is coasting along on some luck.  In addition to that, there’s the question of whether or not the Sox sell off some pieces in the coming weeks.  Alex Colome, despite the blown save in the Red Sox series, would be a nice addition to any team looking to add for a stretch run, as would Aaron Bummer.  Wellington Castillo could be had for parts, and if there’s an offer for James McCann that blows Rick Hahn’s socks off I’d expect him to at least consider it.  Add all these parts up, and I feel like the ZIPS projection of 71 wins might be right on the money.  Dylan Cease coming up, or Zack Collins getting consistent playing time may alter those numbers slightly, but not much more than a win or two in either direction.  Adding 8 wins to the Sox total from last season is a solid improvement, and I’m in no way upset about it.

Just kinda disappointed.

Baseball

Cubs-Sox Meditation

By Sam Fels 1433 0

Instead of our usual spotlight, for the Crosstown series the three of us who have been covering baseball so far this year–yours truly, Hess, and AJ–got together to talk about the status of each team heading into this two-day gimmick on the Northside. 

Fels: We used to joke around here that these games meant little to Cubs fans and everything to Sox fans, because lord knows in the past I’ve come across more than enough Sox fans who had a “DEY COULD WIN TWO GAMES ALL YEAR BUT IF DERE AGAINST DA PACKERS I’M HAPPY” attitude about these. But it seems in the past couple Sox fans also regard these crosstown games as a ginned-up gimmick. That about right?

AJ: I would agree.  The fact that CSN (now NBCSN) has tried to turn this thing into an NCAA Football kind of rivalry with some Monopoly token kind of trophy has had the opposite effect and actually highlighted how goofy the concept is.  That, and the fact that in our heart of hearts most Sox fans that follow the team closely know the best we could hope for these past few years was a series split.  I’m wondering if now that the team is trending upward we might see a resurgence of that type of behavior.  I know personally that as much as I’d like the Sox to smoke the Cubs it’s far more important to not get clobbered by Minnesota so if they lose 3 of 4 I’m not gonna be too pissed about it.  

Hess: I am right there with you both, but I still think it is fun and kind of important that they play each other. Is it a true rivalry? No. The most heated moment in the history was the Barret-Pierzynski fight, and even any Sox who thinks they wouldn’t punch AJ when aggravated and they had the chance is a liar. But there is something fun about having them play one another, especially with the teams in the current states, as the Cubs represent everything the Sox are hoping for out of the rebuild. And the NBCSN commercials for it are nauseating.

Flipping to you, Sam – The Sox are set to see Jon Lester on Wednesday, who seems to be having more hills and valleys with his play this year than the Rocky Mountains the Cubs left behind last week. What’s been his deal?
Fels: Well, he’s old. Lester’s stuff has definitely declined a bit, which makes his margin for error somewhere in Hendricks range. Lester hasn’t been able to blow anyone away in a while, which is fine, because he could just beat the corners into submission. But now as his stuff plays even lower, he really has to hit the corners and nothing else and when he misses it’s ya-ha time. He’s been trying a new approach and trying to get inside more than just merely staying not the outside corner, but again, he can’t miss. Some days he doesn’t. Some days he does and he gets shelled. There seems to be no in between. He also hasn’t quite figured out how to make his change as effective as it should be.

Looks like this week could be the debut of another Sox toy, in Zack Collins. Is this just a Wellington injury fill-in? Is he here for good? How worried are you about the swing and miss in his game?
AJ: At this point with the hilariously bad production out of the DH spot (.191/.294/.357!?!) I’m excited to see what he can bring to the table.  I’ve set my expectations fairly low, so if he can make me forget Yonder Alonso is a thing that is here then I’ll be thrilled.  The swing and miss portion of his game seems to fit right in with most of the hitters in MLB now anyways, what with the Three True Outcomes and all, so that part doesn’t concern me as much.  What does concern me is his ability to actually stick at catcher.  If he’s unable to play there at least half time then we are looking at a career DH, as the dearth of 1B prospects the Sox have are probably gonna boot him from there.  My guess is that he’s here until Castillo is healthy, as the Sox want to try and feature The Beef as much as possible to trade him in 2 weeks.
Hess: The funny thing about the swing-and-miss in Collins’ game is that in all reality, he doesn’t swing much. He’s one of the most patient hitters I have ever seen, and only really swings if he either really has to or really gets a pitch he likes. That has resulted in hilarious strikeout and walk rates in the minors so far, as he’s basically walked or struck out in half of his MiLB PA’s. But a 15%+ walk rate is nothing to scoff at, even if it comes with a ~30% K-rate. I echo AJ’s catching concerns, but I saw him do it in person and was actually encouraged, and I also saw him play a competent 1B in person. If he can be a C/1B/DH combo with a high OBP and big power, you will never hear me complain. In terms of who he might be replacing, I would think Collins is here the rest of the year, and either Castillo or Alonso get DFA’d on August 1 if the Sox can’t get anything for them.

Speaking of new faces, the Cubs are still waiting patiently for Craig Kimbrel to arrive in full. Is he going to solve their bullpen issues well enough, or are they still gonna need to look elsewhere? And relatedly, do you think they’d be wanting enough for back-end help to pay up for Alex Colome from the Sox?
Fels: Kimbrel definitely won’t solve everything, but he’s an improvement over what they have. It pushes Strop to be the fireman of sorts, or would if Maddon were in any way creative with his bullpen usage. They’ll still be on arm short, maybe two, because Maddon may have broken Cishek last year. Right now, Kintzler and Strop are the only ones they can consistently count on. Edwards was good upon his recall, but his hurt again and you can never quite trust him. There’s a chance Alzolay ends up being another arm late in the year, but even that will leave them one short I think. And while I’d love to tell you it’ll be my guy Dillon Maples…

Colome is a name they will definitely be connected to but I think their preference is going to be someone who throws left-handed. Will Smith maybe. And I don’t think they’re going to be too interested in forking over the boat for any other reliever.
The Sox are floating around .500 without surpassing it, but that won’t change their plans much. Still, other than Colome is there anyone they can get meaningful things for at the deadline now?
AJ: The only other players who might be worth anything at the deadline would be James McCann or Jose Abreu and at this point the offer would have to be fairly impressive for the Sox to budge on either.  Though Tim Anderson has come a long way I think Abreu is still the face of the franchise, and having him here to mentor the other Cuban kids matters more than most may think.  

As for McCann, even though his BABIP is insanely unsustainable his defense and his work with Giolito combined with his super affordable price make him pretty unmovable unless a team came along with a deal Hahn couldn’t refuse.
Sam, what’s up with Javy right now?  Is this just the inevitable result of his free swinging ways catching up to him?  Or is this something more to do with the foot injury he was nursing for a few weeks?  Maybe a combination of both?
Fels: You always worry about injuries lingering, and if it were they definitely wouldn’t tell you. But mostly I think this is just how Javy is, that there’s going to be a couple weeks or month, maybe even six weeks, where he makes you tear your hair out (if I had any) and then the rest of the time he’s the best show on Earth. He’s definitely gotten a little pull-happy and whereas in May and April he was actually taking a noticeable number of walks he hasn’t walked at all in June. Maybe the heel injury has slowed his swing a touch, we’ll never know. Once he starts going back to right field again, he’ll probably put up stupid numbers again. Javy doesn’t make a lot of sense, but I learned long ago to stop questioning it.

All right, feels like we’re ready to go for these two stupid games. Let’s get through it.
Baseball

The Zack Collins Era

By Sam Fels 1460 0

Sox fans got another toy to play with (well, watch) last night when it leaked out that Zack Collins will be called up in time for the NBC Sports Chicago Holy War at Wrigley Field over the next few days. Collins is the White Sox top catching prospect, though there is some conjecture about whether he can stick at catcher over the long haul. But we’ll get there. He’s going to have to catch to play in the next two games, as there won’t be a DH, and the Sox aren’t going to sacrifice Jose Abreu.

Collins certainly has impressive numbers in the minors, especially for a catcher. He had a .364 wOBA in Charlotte this year, and a .363 wOBA in AA last year. Especially for a catcher, you’d take that in a heartbeat. They’re not other worldly, and pale in comparison to the totals that other prospects like Jimenez or Moncada put up before getting their call, but the parameters are different for catchers. Also, considering AAA has gone to the major league baseball this year and have hence been flying around like Canadian soldiers before drowning in Joba Chamberlain’s sweat, you might want to see it a touch higher (now that’s a reference for you!).

The big concern with Collins is the whiff. His strikeout rate has gone up every season and promotion to every level in his journey to 35th and Shields, and in AAA this year his K% was a scary 32.9%. Yes, it’s a strikeout game, but what that portends to at the top level is enough for teeth-grinding and collar-tugging. What Collins does have that a lot of young players k-ing at that rate don’t is an absurd walk-rate. He was getting a free pass at 17.5% this year, and was at 19.4% last year. For comparison’s sake, the leader in walk percentage in the majors is Mike Trout at 21%, and that’s MIKE TROUT who most are terrified of. The next is Dan Vogelbach at 18%, so you can see where Collins’s handling of the zone is unique. You’d think that someone who knows the zone that well would get the bat to the ball more often, but we said the same thing about Adam Dunn. Still, if you’re on-base is over .370, as it has been for Collins at every level, you don’t really care where the outs come from. And if he ever did improve his bat-to-ball skills, then you really have something.

It may just be as an injury fill-in for Welington Castillo, who tweaked his back yesterday. Most Sox fans are happy to see the back of Castillo, as he’s been outplayed by James McCann by some distance and an appetite for Collins. Still, you wouldn’t want to call Collins up and then have him be simply a backup. Perhaps the Sox can get him ABs at first and DH, where Yonder Alonso is leaving mostly a foul smell after his Manny Recruitment assignments lie in ruins. Collins did play nine games at first this year for the first time in his pro career, so you know the Sox were at least thinking about this.

And it might not even work that way. Don’t look now, but McCann’s numbers have been sliding since April. His hard-contact is down, his average is down, his grounders are up, and he’s no longer getting the ridiculous fortune of righteous BABIP Kung Fu Treachery, which was over .400 for a good portion of the season. He still very well may be an All-Star, but it’s a trend worth keeping an eye on.

It’s hard to pinpoint why McCann’s contact has dropped off. He’s being thrown the same mix of pitches as before, though over the last month fastballs up in the zone have been the go-to. But if McCann continues to slide, it only opens up a larger window for Collins.

Exciting times on the Southside…until Despaigne takes the mound at least.

Baseball

Do We Believe In James McCann?

By Sam Fels 1500 0

I mean he exists. He’s real. So you should believe in that.

In something of a surprise, through the season’s first six weeks two of the three best catchers in baseball, in terms of fWAR, reside in the Chicago. Willson Contreras being the best is only a small shock, because he’s flashed this kind of thing before, if only for a month or two in 2017. Certainly after last year’s before-spinach-Popeye act didn’t portend to dominance this year, but that’s what we’ve gotten.

On the Southside is the real surprise. James McCann has put up 1.1 WAR in just 84 plate-appearances, which puts him behind only Contreras and J.T. Realmuto among major-league catchers. McCann 169 wRC+, which only trails Contreras. His .420 wOBA is also second to Contreras. So yeah, basically McCann has been an instrument of doom for the season’s first month-plus.

Anyone can have a month or six weeks, you’ll say. And that’s true, and we could while away the rest of the afternoon listing off various tomato cans and shaved apes that put up a hot month. Especially at catcher, where being a shaved ape used to be something of a job requirement. So is there anything real about McCann’s start?

More than just luck, it would seem. Clearly, McCann’s .444 BABIP would cause him to be placed right at the top of a lot of people’s “Get Outta My League Leaders!” list. That’s not sustainable.

That doesn’t mean that McCann is going to see a stomach-heaving fall. Because he’s hitting the ball really hard.

If you go by Statcast, and that’s the trend these days, McCann’s average exit-velocity is 90.8 MPH. That’s three miles per hour higher than he managed last year, or ever. It’s not near the hardest around, but it is a big improvement. His hard-contact rate, if you want to go by that, is over 40%. Statcast has this neat thing called expected-slugging and expected-weighted on-base, which basically takes your statcast data and tells you what you should be getting based on every other ball hit at those velocities and angles. McCann’s expected slugging is .501 so far and and his expected wOBA is .424. He’s dwarfing both those figures at the moment, but even if he were to sink back to what he “should” be producing, you’d take that quick enough to leave a cloud outline of yourself.

There’s clearly been a change in approach as well. McCann has dropped both the percentage of pitches he swings at outside the zone and increased the amount of pitches in the zone he offers at 4-5% each. Which has led him to hitting the ball harder, squaring it up more often, and not getting fooled as much. It’s also led to more fastballs in the zone, which he’s turning into paste at the clip of .458 and a .667 slugging.

Another big area of improvement for McCann is his production when seeing sliders. For his career he’d only hit .212 against them, but this year is hitting .350. That’s encouraging, because given what he’s done against fastballs, he’s going to see more and more of them along with curves (which he’s also hitting .333 against). The big change is that he’s getting sliders in the air far more often, about 15% more, than he did before.

The other thing about McCann’s production is it might not matter. Zack Collins is currently tearing AAA to shreds, and could be up later this season. But McCann could either act as a platoon partner for Collins’s introduction, or a trade-chip to bring something back more long-term. Either would be fine with the Sox.

We’re not at the point where you should buy McCann stock. But maybe on the watch-list.