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Night Songs – Round 2 Day 8: Once It Cools…

By Sam Fels 1459 0

It felt like we got back to what we’re used to seeing in playoff hockey after the mainlining Special K that the first few games were. And that’s fine, as coaches aren’t here to entertain. Maybe we’ll get back there, maybe we won’t, but we won’t be short on drama at least. But man did I miss the high.

Capitals 1 – Penguins 3 (Tied 2-2)

The theme coming out of this one seemed to be the Capitals thought they missed a chance to really take a hold of this series, Capitals history being littered with excellence after going up 3-1 of course, but I don’t have any idea where that came from. Matt Murray didn’t have to work all that hard to keep them to one goal, as Ovechkin and Oshie–presumably their two biggest scorers–didn’t come up with a shot at even-strength all night. Oshie at least bagged one on the power play, but Ovie and Kuznetsov got Sid and Guentzel in their face on every shift and were left with tire tracks on their intestines. I don’t buy into the Ovechkin as playoff failure narrative that everyone is so eager to trot out (there are dozens of other reasons the Caps have never managed eight playoff wins) but after a fine Game 3 it was pretty damn clear why Sid has the hardware last night, both from his performance and his teammates. Again, I don’t always go for this kind of thing but this heatmap seems pretty telling of the events last night in The Burgh:

That’s a pretty easy night for Murray. Heading back to DC either Trotz is going to have to put Backstrom back with Ovechkin or get Ovie and Kuznetsov out against someone else for the majority of the game.
Caps fans will bitch that the league is out to get them, ignoring the fact that Wilson probably should have been suspended longer for repeated offenses, in a world that made sense Oshie might be looking at one for his Fosbury flop attempt into Kris Letang’s head that was only five seconds late, and they got the Gift Of Parallax (my favorite Jethro Tull song) in Game 2. They’ve been on the margins for both of their wins, and will have to find a gear this organization has never found to get out of this one alive. I’m here for however this goes.
Predators 2 – Jets 1 (Tied 2-2)
Goddamn you, Peter Laviolette.
Realizing that playing at the most ridiculous pace anyone’s seen was not going to benefit his forwards who were outgunned by the Jets, Lavvy went all NHL-coachy last night and man did it work a treat. As McClure discovered yesterday, the first three games of this series were averaging 129 attempts for 60 minutes of even-strength play. For comparison’s sake, the Kings-Hawks tilt-a-whirl of ’14 averaged 114 in Games 5-7 when that one went plaid. So yeah, we might not have seen anything like that before.
Well, the Preds weren’t having it last night. They kept their third forward especially high in the offensive zone, and every time the Jets looked up there were three Preds back, and they were contained between them and two hard-back-checking forwards. This is a problem the Jets have, as the only thing close they have to a trap-buster on defense is Byfuglien and he’d have to care more to really be one. It’s not really Trouba’s game and though Tyler Myers is under the impression it’s his that is most certainly not the case. That leaves the forwards to do it but then there really isn’t anyone to get in on loose pucks chipped into the Preds’ zone and the Preds also have the fleetest defense to win those races anyway.
It was not an especially good night for Paul Maurice. Again, if I squint I can see why Buff by far was the busiest d-man for the Jets, because in theory he’s the only puck-rusher of the bunch. That ignores the fact that when he’s not in the offensive zone he blows. He took the penalty that resulted in the difference on the scoreboard because he’s a dumb and lazy defender, getting completely pantsed by known-magician Matthias Ekholm. Maurice tried to get Buff out against the bottom six of the Preds but even that didn’t work, as he managed a 38% share and was his fat ass was harassed and bothered all night because he didn’t bother to move. Buff is fine if he can outscore all his problems, which he’s mostly done these playoffs. He scored in Games 2 and 3, and that’s enough to ignore that he’s mostly been getting his head stuck in the pencil sharpener for the entirety of the games. When he doesn’t score, it’s impossible to ignore.
Still, this approach from Laviolette made the margins all that smaller, and if it wasn’t for Pekka’s knob (oh lord) then this could have gone sideways on him anyway. The Jets would have had the lead, the building rocking, and it’s a lot harder to stay patient with all that going on. Fascinated to see if they Preds can do this at home in front of their crowd demanding a higher pace. We were also treated to a Ryan Hartman playoff goal, which is going to have the construction worker focus group McD keeps outside his office window in a fine mood.
It also was a shit night for hockey coverage, because scratching Kevin Fiala for Scott Hartnell is a shit decision no matter what your plan is. And Hartnell didn’t do anything all night except yell and smell but because the Preds won, this is hailed as genius. Try it again, Lavvy, I dare you.
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Night Songs – Round 2 Opening Weekend: This Is Better

By Sam Fels 1639 0

I think we can all admit without turning in our hockey fan cards that the first round was pretty middling as far as entertainment. And that’s actually fine. When you have a few, clear, really good teams as the NHL does, the first round probably should be underwhelming. The Jets, Preds, and Lightning were always going to bludgeon whoever they saw (which the Preds eventually did). The only long series of intrigue really as the Leafs and Bruins and that was more for the comedy of what we all knew was coming. But this round shaped up to be the true must-see theater, and it really has been.

Jets-Predators goes plaid, and 1-1

It’s with a slight twitch of pain that I say this, because it’s always cool knowing your team played in the best playoff series of the post-lockout era even if it lost it, but this Jets-Preds has every chance of being as good if not eclipsing Hawks-Kings ’14. The pace last night simply was ridiculous, and both of these teams seemingly have accepted they’re going to give up chances to get their own. Last night was an example of how the Jets defense might be the first to crack, as on Arvidsson’s goal Chiarot got caught wandering and the Preds have the forward depth to make that a problem, and then for the winner a clearly still rusty Toby Enstrom got caught on a pinch and Byfuglien played the ensuing 2-on-1 like the dog that he is in his own zone. He was awful from the 3rd period on and it’s a small miracle he didn’t help create the winner for the Preds before that.

Encouragingly for the Jets though, it was the top line that basically had to do everything for Nashville as Winnipeg rolled over the rest. Not encouragingly is that Peter Laviolette was happy to let the top lines go at each other and Scheiele did not come out ahead, but also he kept throwing Byfuglien out behind them. Maybe Paul Maurice thinks his top line is enough protection for Buff and Enstrom, but it most certainly was not last night. Look for Trouba and Morrissey to be the ones getting the assignment in Winnipeg. And for this series only to get faster and more frantic, which is great for all of us.

Sharks and Knights split with 2OT as well

Clearly the Sharks weren’t ready for Vegas in Game 1 and everything that could have gone wrong did. They were hellbent on slowing the game agains the Knights in Game 2 and it mostly worked. You get in trouble with Vegas when you let them get behind you in the neutral zone or hit the line with speed with or without the puck and harass your d-men. The Sharks made sure their d-men backed up at the first sign of trouble, basically put three across their own line so even when the Knights dumped it in they couldn’t come over the hill like starving Scotsmen painted blue on the forecheck. It requires you basically bury a good percentage of your good chances because you won’t get as many as normal, but the Sharks did. Interesting to see if they can do this at home with a more expectant home crowd. Then again, Fleury can’t keep this up, can he?

Pens Caps Is Pens Caps

I’ll admit I basically thought that once the Caps coughed up a two-goal lead in the time it takes to take a shit in Game 1 at home that this series is basically over. And it may still yet prove that way. Of course, this being the NHL, we can’t talk about how it’s been really entertaining and both Ovechkin and Crosby are giving this series the battling star-power the league has been dying for because it’s overshadowed by either the league’s incompetence or stupid shit like Tom Wilson braining Brian Dumoulin.

Do I know it was a goal? No, I don’t but you can’t tell me the call was confirmed when there was no call. The refs just blew the play dead and then high-tailed it for the headphones. And I get that different angles can skew things, but we can pretty much conclude that thing was over the line. As for Wilson, he’s lost any benefit of the doubt and the league would do well to try and cap any future stupidness from him by sitting him again. But they won’t, and it’s not like it would work from a real life Venom anyway.

Bs kneecap Bolts

This was a surprise, but sometimes the team that’s sat around for a while just isn’t as sharp as the one that played two nights ago and this is what that looked like. Also, why is Brayden Point and Anton Stralman your choice to deal with the best line in hockey? If you have any hope of beating the Bruins you have to keep Pastrnak-Bergeron-Marchand on a leash and you’re not doing that with Brayden Fucking Point, whatever his season was. And Stralman might be dead, and if he isn’t he’s definitely on a lot of tubes. The Bolts might have the second best line in hockey so they should be fighting fire with fire and if Victor Hedman is a Norris candidate then he should be out there trying to keep Bergeron’s line in their own end. Ryan McDonagh is fine but he’s a second pairing guy now. Then again, if they’re going to insist on pairing Dan Girardi with Hedman maybe that’s the problem. They’re going to have to figure out something, because letting that line go off or multiple goals is a great way to assure you’re going to enjoy the Florida sunshine full-time right quick. Ha, just kidding, no one enjoys Tampa.

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Watching The Party – FFUD’s Round 2 Preview: Penguins vs. Capitals or The Gods Must Be Crazy

By Sam Fels 1486 0

 vs. 

It’s kind of amazing, while feeling completely inevitable, that we ended up here again. The Capitals were not supposed to be good, much less win the Metro again. The Penguins flirted with both ends of the spectrum this season, flipping between simply awful and simply brilliant sometimes game-to-game. So it was thought the Penguins might have lost by now, or that the Caps would. All of that conveniently forgot that the rest of the division has to wear a helmet both on and off the ice at all times, and were never going to get in they way of these two again. But for once, it’s probably the third-best and third-most anticipated series of this round instead of being the main event of the entire playoffs as its been the past two years. Could that lessening of the spotlight be what the Capitals need to finally get one over their black and gold clad tormentors?

Let’s run it through:

Goalies: The Penguins don’t have any questions. Matt Murray wasn’t excellent against the Flyers, but he didn’t have to be while the Flyers were recreating the Budweiser Frogs in net all series. He’ll probably have to be better here, you’d think. Ovechkin doesn’t tend to lose his mind and principles in the playoffs the way Claude Giroux does, and he comes with Kuznetsov, Oshie, Backstrom, and some spiky bottom-sixers. Murray beat them two years ago but was injured last year so it was left to Fleury to stand by and watch the Caps hilariously fold in on themselves. Murray wasn’t particularly good against the Caps this year, going 2-2-0 while turning around 12 times in four games. But then he wasn’t particularly good in the regular season overall and he still finds himself here.

It would appear the Caps are now settled on Braden Holtby, who gets the chance to make amends for what was a very disappointing season. The incoming hero seems to have brightened his mood, as he threw a .932 at the Jackets in five appearances. But the Jackets don’t come with anything like Crosby, Kessell, Malkin (if he’s healthy), Hornqvist, Guentzel, and a host of others who have proven to be dependable playoff scorers. But Holtby already knows this. He was excellent two years ago and it wasn’t his fault that the Caps lost three OT games. He was pretty awful last year and was a big reason the Caps lost. He’s going to have to at least split the difference here, and unless you play a Guy Boucher-trap-until-everyone-strokes-out system to protect your goalie, these Penguins just don’t get goalie’d.

Defense: The Penguins defense always seems to play above its head, no matter who’s in the lineup and who isn’t. Dumoulin, Letang, Maatta, and Schultz were mostly excellent against the Flyers, and they were under serious pressure at times. The Penguins do make it easier on their d-men where they’re not asked to connect on breakout passes all the time but simply chips into space in the neutral zone for their speedy forwards to latch onto. This certainly helps them. Ruhwedel and Oleksiak are limited but aren’t asked to do much, and the Caps don’t quite have the depth they used to to really get at them.

At first, it looks like John Carlson was adding to his UFA presentation package with nine points in six games against the Jackets. But all of them came on the power play and the Penguins are just not going to be as forgiving. That said, the Caps top four on paper matches the Penguins’, if not better. And that includes Michal Kempny which makes me want to put my fist through a wall and eat the drywall that ends up on the floor. Just like the Penguins, Orpik and Djoos have their issues on the bottom pairing, but the difference is that the Pens do have the forward depth to really expose them, at least if Malkin plays and Brassard isn’t asked for more. Home ice once again matters… or it would if this weren’t the Caps.

Forwards: At this point everyone knows the deal with the Penguins. A lineup loaded with fast, shifty wingers bolstered by perhaps the best center-depth in the league. That depends on the health of Evgeni Malkin. He won’t play Game 1, is a stretch for Game 2 but is probably back after that. Even without him, the Pens put up eight goals in Game 6. Brassard is a decent enough stand-in, though they leave him on the third line with Sheary and Rust and Sheahan fills in between Kessel and Hagelin. Either way, the Penguins can and do get you from everywhere, and expect Orpik to look completely bewildered at times.

This isn’t the Caps group you remember, as it is far top heavier than it was. If Ovie and Kuznetsov and Oshie don’t score in this series, at evens or the power play, the Caps are toast. Smith-Pelley and Eller and Vrana are the kinds of players you’d expect to provide support scoring, and they’ll need to. Even with all that, Tom Wilson is going to take a really dumb penalty or 12 that the Penguins will cash in on that will shift the series. It’s just what happens. There is more depth here than the Caps get credit for but it’s not the same as the past two years. And it wasn’t enough the past two years. If Malkin misses the first two games then Backstrom and Kuznetsov have to take advantage. As soon as the Caps lose a home game all the gremlins in their heads come out to dance again.

Prediction: There’s a part of me that really wants to pick the Caps here, just for something different. But everywhere you look, you can’t see where they’re markedly better than the Penguins, if better at all. You’re counting on something you can’t predict happening for them. Maybe Holtby plays incredibly. Maybe Ovechkin binges. Maybe Lars Eller goes off. Maybe their power play stays so hot. But when looking at things that are on the baselines for both these teams, everything for the Penguins just seems likelier. Pens in 6. 

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Night Songs- Round 1 Day 7: It’s much funnier when it happens to someone else

By Adam Hess 1788 0

Last night was an exercise in the duality of these NHL playoffs. I can’t really remember the last time I felt like the NHL playoffs were somewhat resembling the NBA’s tournament, but this year kinda feels like that – there are a few series which have a clearly dominant team for whom winning seems inevitable, and then a few series that definitely could go either way. In this case, we watched Winnipeg continue their dominance of Minnesota, which has felt inevitable since puck drop of Game 1. We had Washington and Lumbus, which has been very even – because both teams suck, not because they’re both good – and went to OT for the third time in three games. Vegas and LA was kinda even but the Knights ended up completing a sweep because the NHL is a urinal.

Capitals 3 – Jackets 2 (20T) (CBJ leads 2-1)

Barry Trotz finally stopped out thinking himself and put Braden Holtby in net. I know Holtby didn’t have a stellar season, but ultimately I still think it was foolish to not start him in this series to begin with. And yeah, I don’t know how much of a difference it would’ve ultimately made given both of the first two games went to OT as well, but overall Holtby is a better netminder than Grubauer and I’m willing to bet he stops that Panarin winner from Game 1. This game was just as evenly played as the other two have been, and I think CBJ might really end up eliminating this Capitals outfit. And hey, Caps fans, at least losing to the Jackets would save you from losing to the Penguins again.

Jets 2 – Wild 0 (WIN leads 3-1)

We all would’ve been better off if the Wild had just accepted reality and let Winnipeg run over them in Game 3 as well, just accepting the defeat of a sweep. Instead they got mauled again last night – the Jets controlled nearly 60% of the shot attempts in all three periods! – and are in for another belt-over-a-raw-ass beating again in two days. I wish I could feel bad for them, but I most definitely do not. Chicago is the state of hockey, bitches.

Golden Knights 1 – Kings 0 (Knights sweep series 4-0)

The NHL is a urinal. A team made of paper mache and scrap heaps just swept the Los Angeles Kings out of the playoffs. Look, I know the Kings were hardly a force to be reckoned with this year, but neither should Vegas have been. I think there’s probably something to the idea that the underdog status and borderline disrespectful expectations for them, even as champs of the Pacific Division, is motivating them, but an expansion team with a bunch of guys who have had to add “who?” to their name in their career sweeping a team with one one of the league’s best 1C/1D combos is just outrageous. There is no way this kind of shit happens in any of the other leagues that isn’t a single entity. But, this league is a urinal.

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Game #59 – Capitals vs. Hawks Preview/Six-Man Tag: Revolution #9

By Sam Fels 2008 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Capitals 33-17-7   Hawks 24-26-8

PUCK DROP: 7:30

TV: WGN

THE NATIONALS HAVE NEVER WON A PLAYOFF SERIES: Japers Rink

At this point, we should just enjoy every game for the singular event that it is. I guess. So tonight is the one time per year that Alex Ovechkin comes to town, and if you’re headed to the UC tonight remember that you may be seeing the greatest goal-scorer of all-time (if you adjust for the era and such). So that’s cool. Other than that… well, it’s more to the Lance Bouma-Tommy Wingels Showcase Showdown.

When looking at the Caps, it’s actually really hard to tell just what the hell they’re doing at the top of the Metropolitan. Maybe it’s just that division is so bad, or was until the Penguins turned on lately. For fuck’s sake, the Flyers are in third in that division. Did you know that? No, you didn’t, because you don’t ever think about Cold Ones. And you don’t know who the hell is on there anymore. And they’re in third.

The Caps are a bad possession team. They’re a bad defensive team, as they actually have a worse expected goals-against than the Islanders, and the Islanders defensive policy is to fart into the wind. The Caps haven’t even really gotten a high-level of goaltending, as both Braden Holtby and Phillip Grubauer are carrying SV%’s right around league average. Holtby of late has been terrible, with an .898 in February. At least Trotz has figured out to not punt him out there 70+ times a season.

What the Caps do is shoot well, with the league’s best SH% at evens. The Caps have never needed to dominate games possession-wise with the skills of Ovie, Backstrom, Oshie, Kuznetsov, and they still have bottom-six finish with Eller, Connolly, and Vrana. They get some help in that area from the back end as well, with Carlson and Orlov each having over 20 points (and Carlson over 40). But the extent at which they’re overcoming their deficiencies so far makes you believe this is all a house of cards. And of course, once the Caps spit it in Round 1 or 2, we’ll get the now springtime tradition of Caps and turning their road jerseys into home ones by opening up a vein or six.

The Caps busted a modest two-game losing streak by stuffing the Wild but good on Thursday. They’ve been ho-hum this month, going 3-2-2 and giving life to the division chase of Pittsburgh. The Pens are three points back but have played two games more, so it’s still a ways to go but if the market corrects on the Caps before the playoffs, you can see where this is going.

Still, for tonight, it’s an awful lot of firepower for the Hawks beleaguered defense and goalies and… you know, let’s just change this to “beleaguered Hawks.” The Caps can get you from three lines and the power play is always something you don’t want to mess with. Trotz likely won’t hold anything back tonight, as the Hawks look like easy prey to just about everyone right now. The word’s out that if you get the Hawks in any kind of antsy situation, they’re probably going to find a way to lose and/or pack up the cats. So Washington will be looking for an early lead to get themselves an easy night. Not like the Hawks can score three goals anyway.

For the Hawks, lineup changes look like Connor Murphy will be punished for catching a rut on Thursday in Quenneville’s every increasingly-logical world. David Kampf also looks like he’ll draw back in for Tomas Jurco, so he can center Duclair and Anisimov for seven minutes or so. Everything else should stay the same, and Forsberg will get two straight starts if you can believe it.

Nothing to do now but play spoiler and see how much Schmaltz, Top Cat, and now Dahlstrom can grow. At least the Hawks showed some chutzpa on Thursday. That’s another thing to watch, whether Q can keep them trying until the end. We have so little to hang on to.

 

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Game #59 – Capitals vs. Hawks Spotlight: Hendrix Said He Nearly Trotz’d

By Sam Fels 1849 0

Barry Trotz has been one of our favorite pin cushions since we started this madness, not just because he kind of looks like one. His Predators teams tended to drive us nuts, and then their fans drove us nuts because they kept claiming they didn’t trap. And now Trotz has etched his name right next to Bruce Boudreau’s in Capitals lore, coaches of great teams that kept finding ways to burf in the 2nd round of the playoffs.

Because of that, you probably didn’t realize how good Trotz’s record is as a coach. Once the Predators actually came of age, back when the NHL made expansion teams earn it, since ’03-’04, 11 of 14 teams of his have reached 90 point or higher. 10 of them made the playoffs. He’s fifth all-time in regular season wins. He’ll go down as one of the greatest coaches of all time, in that sense.

And yet… in hockey, no one cares if you don’t make it count in the spring. Trotz’s teams have never seen a conference final. Some of them most certainly should have. The 2007 Predators and 2012 Predators probably should have. The past two Capitals teams almost certainly should have. Maybe Trotz can’t help running into Mike Smith the one season he had taken eye of newt and became a different being. There isn’t much Trotz can do when Braden Holtby’s level drops just enough to be surpassed by Matt Murray. And yet we keep saying these things about Trotz and his teams, don’t we?

And now Trotz finds himself in the last year of his contract, something you don’t see coaches get to very often. It feels like this year, he’s either got to break through or he’s out. One wonders how many coaches the Caps get to try before they have to start all over. They’re not there yet but they’re getting closer.

That doesn’t mean that Trotz should be written off completely. Because there’s another coach who was thought of the A-t0-B-but-not-C guy. He had coached nine playoff teams with two organizations without ever seeing a Final. It was thought he couldn’t find a way to get through either. You might have heard of him. Joel Quenneville. On his 11th playoff team and 13th season of coaching, Q finally broke through. It can take that long.

Which makes for an interesting discussion around these parts, does it not? If this season ends in a divorce between Quenneville and the Hawks, and if another shortened spring means that Barry Trotz doesn’t get another contract in Washington… would he be a candidate here? He’s certainly familiar to the Hawks after his years in Nashville. He would have the instant respect of players who know his name and methods, something to not be underestimated when you’re dealing with a roster that has multiple multi-Cup winners on it. His Caps and Preds teams, at least at times, played a style that meshes with what the Hawks want to do.

But that playoff record. It didn’t scare the Hawks off Quenneville, although that was for an organization and fanbase that didn’t really know any better. It was also with a powerhouse roster, which any new coach wouldn’t get here. Now the Hawks and their fans are at least slightly more clued in. Would they accept a coach who hasn’t “gotten it done?”

A discussion for somewhere down the road.

 

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Game #59 – Capitals vs. Hawks Douchebag Du Jour: Timothy Jimothy Leif

By Sam Fels 2257 0

In a sense, you have to hand it to Timothy Leif. The guy knows when to shoot his shot. It takes unique timing to double your career shooting-percentage in your free agent season. It got Timothy Jimothy an eight-year deal that will pay $5.7 million (cap hit). That’s cashing in at the right time.

Of course, Timothy Leif as returned to Earth this year. He has 12 goals this season, as his 13.4% shooting-percentage is right on the nose of his career mark. This is what he is. Oshie is a 20-25 goal-scorer. And even that’s giving him the best of it. This is his 10th season, and he’s only surpassed 20 goals three times. He’s a second-liner who got the rub of playing with Backstrom and Ovechkin for a while. And that’s ok.

Timothy Jimothy’s reputation is still outsized from an Olympic performance that A) didn’t matter at the time and B) doesn’t matter at all now. A shootout-win in the preliminary round over a Russian team that didn’t have a blue line was hardly worth celebrating. Getting exposed by Canada and then Finland proved that. It doesn’t hurt that Oshie’s photogenic and affable, but again, as a player he’s kind of just there.

As we like to say when he was a Blue, we’re sure he makes engine noises as he skates around the ice. His hair-on-fire style has subsided a bit, he’s become more of a standstill shooter. His metrics are still only ok, though hasn’t fallen as far the team’s. Much like every Cap, he’s turned invisible when the opponent wears black and yellow in the spring. Oshie scored once and in last year’s series, though he had a hat trick and five goals in the ’16 matchup.

But we’re probably not too far away from Caps fans glaring at his contract in spite when they can’t afford to hang onto their window anymore. It’s a story we know well.

 

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Game #28 – Hawks 2 – Capitals 6: Love Isn’t Always On Time

By Sam Fels 3219 0

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Corsica

This is going to sound strange. But strange is what we deal in around these parts. The Hawks really weren’t that bad tonight. In fact, for the first two periods, they were pretty good. It’s just that whenever something can go wrong for the Hawks right now, it’s going to horribly. When you have to lean on you backup goalie for three straight games, he’s probably going to let in a softie. So there’s the Caps’ second goal, which changed the outlook of the game. Still, you’d like to see a team like this respond a little better than giving up another one 29 seconds later, but we’ll get to that. Toss in a power play that can’t hit a bull in the ass with a snow-shovel right now, some players that are being asked to do the wrong things, and you get what looks like an ugly loss. The time for consolation is running out quickly. Hockey remains weird, and because of that there’s no guarantee that things will bend back the way that the Hawks play really suggests it should.

-While the second Caps’ goal–The Fels Motherfuck is on a real streak this season–appeared to be the game-changer, really it was the power play in the 2nd period when it was still a 3-1 game. Actually it was two of them. And the Hawks power play didn’t do anything. Like it’s been doing, or not doing I s’pose, all season.

What’s most frustrating is it’s obvious to everyone, and it must be obvious to the players, that the coaches have no idea where to go. Every power play the Hawks try something different. First we had Kane on a point, though moving down to the right half-boards with Saad on the left. But what good does having Saad on the left do? He’s a left-handed shot. The next power play saw Kane on the other side with Schmaltz where he was. A third power play saw the Hawks move two guys below the net.

We see this every game. The Hawks have new personnel or a new look or both on every chance. It doesn’t suggest that they’ve got a lot of plans. It suggests they don’t have any plans, and that translates to the players. If the coaches have no confidence in what they’re putting out there, why would they? And it’s costing them points, because for the most part at evens, the Hawks are where they need to be. Yes, I know, but it’s true.

-The new lines were… well, the new lines. It’s hard to get a read after one game. Toews’s line looked exactly like we thought, didn’t have a role. Schmaltz made some things happen with Top Cat, but they also could get overpowered down low in both zones.

-The problems are still on defense. All of Forsling, Rutta, and Franson got exposed in ways that the coaches simply refuse to see. Rutta and Forsling cannot handle anything but lower competition, but found themselves out against Backstrom’s line a lot of the night. And the Hawks seemed happy to have it that way. And ti’s not the first time we’ve seen that, because Tyler Seguin’s line spent two games making them look like Glass Joe. The Hawks best d-man right now is Connor Murphy, and it’s about time the Hawks start treating him like that.

For the Caps third goal, which made this hill really steep, came from Franson’s inability to recognize danger and his Snuffleupagus-like feet. Keith had pinched down the boards and no forward had covered for him. But Franson has to recognize that, instead he was sinking down into the offensive zone. So when the go-route was thrown for Wilson, he’s never going to catch that. He needs to be a free safety there. He was also slow getting back into position for the Caps’ 5th, trailing Kuznetsov.

You simply can’t keep asking Franson to take anything more than third pairing assignments, if that. The Hawks haven’t discovered gold here where no one else could see it. Three teams have decided that Franson is no better than a #7. There’s a reason for that. Stop thinking you’re geniuses. You’re not.

-While the Hawks certainly controlled the possession game for the first 40, most of it was pretty much restricted to the outside. This is where the annoying “Annette Frontpresence” discussion always rears it’s ugly head. I don’t know that the Hawks lack guys who can get to the net. Panik can’t buy one right now. Anisimov is Anisimov. Bouma and Wingels are what they are. You would think Saad would be another, but he isn’t really, is he? Most of Saad’s goals seem to come on the rush or elsewhere. He doesn’t score as many tips and rebounds as you feel like he should. And this was the problem the Hawks had with him the first time.

It’s an ugly scoreline for sure. And the 3rd period wasn’t pretty. There are serious problems here, but a good portion of it is the Hawks own making. Things have to turn sharpish, but it’s there. At least I think it is.

 

 

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Game #28 – Hawks vs. Capitals Preview/Kickabout:The Purge

By Sam Fels 2128 0

 vs. 

RECORDS: Hawks 12-10-5   Capitals 16-11-1

PUCK DROP: 7pm

TV: NBCSN, because this is such a rivalry and all

HOLLYWOOD FOR UGLY PEOPLE: Japers Rink

In some ways, the Hawks will be looking across the ice at what they were just a year or two ago. Both of these teams are either somewhat or pretty hollowed out from the teams that sat upon the top of their respective conferences year after year. That’s how the NHL wants it. Well, they get it. But whereas the Hawks can at least look up at the banners and say it was worth it, all the Capitals have are the broken glasses, waded up tissues, and the sad ballads of shattered dreams. Both have the hangover and clean-up, only the Hawks had the party.

The Capitals are still in the muck of the Metro Division, where all of four points separates the top six teams. So you can’t say they’re out of it by any stretch. Yet looking beyond simply the record and the points, the foundation the Caps used to be built on appears to be heavy with mildew and rust. By surface measures, this team is middling. They’re 15th in goals per game, and 15th in goals-against per game. You can’t get any more “in the middle” than that.

But the underlying numbers will tell you this team is flying on the wings of fortune and the sun is coming up awfully big in the rearview. They are 25th in CF% and 27th in xGF%. They have the sixth-highest shooting percentage in the league. Now, a team with Ovechkin, Backstrom, Oshie, Kuznetsov is probably always going to carry a higher than average shooting percentage given the skills of those four. But they’ll need to shoot around 10% to outdo their horrible possession markers.

They’ll also always get plus goaltending, though Braden Holtby hasn’t been at Vezina-level of the past two years. His .919 overall is below the .925 and .922 of last year, and the real mystery is the three shorthanded goals he’s given up already. That doesn’t really affect the whole, it’s just kind of weird.

It’s not hard to see where the copper wiring has been stripped in this house, though. The bottom six, a strength the past two years, has been shorn of Marcus Johansson and Justin Williams, and in their place are some kids or experiments or simply hail-marys. Those six forwards are getting their heads handed to them on a nightly basis, forcing the top six to do pretty much all the work. Through Eller, Beagle, and Connolly the bottom two lines can occasionally land a haymaker, but spend most of their time on the ropes or staring at the lights.

The defense is kind of the same story. The lost Karl Alzner–who kind of sucks anyway–and secret weapon Nate Schmidt. To make up for that, coach Barry Trotz has apparently decided to let John Carlson skate all their minutes. Carlson is averaging 27 minutes a night, by far the most of his career, 4th most in the league, and nearly four minutes per night over his career average. And the thing is, he’s not doing that much with that time. He’s taking on top lines and the hardest assignments, but the best you can say for him is he’s playing them to a draw. Considering he’s anchored to Brooks “Seabrook This!” Orpik, that’s probably the best they can hope for. What the Caps need is more d-men who can clean up after that firefight, and right now it’s just Orlov and Niskanen. And they’re doing ok, though not exactly dominating. There are a couple kids in Christian Djoos and Madison Bowey (yes, I’ve had many a “Madison Boweys” on trips to Wisconsin) on the third pairing. but Trotz would rather light his body hair on fire than play them in a meaningful situation or much at all. Djoos looks promising but he needs to be given the leash to bum-slay so they can get more out of anyone who’s not Alex Ovechkin or Nicklas Backstrom.

Ah yes, Ovie. This team would be pissing up a rope without him. 20 goals already to lead the league. He was split up for a while from Backstrom as Trotz sought to spread out the scoring, but since reuniting they’ve been a terror as usual. And they’re doing this while dragging around Tom Wilson, so maybe we should just hand Ovie the Hart Trophy now simply for that.  Wilson has skated most of the season with Backstrom and has two goals. Dear reader, raise your hand if you think you could manage two goals while skating with Backstrom.

This preview has already ran on a bit long, so I don’t know that I can give the bonkers Hawks’ lines the treatment they so deserve. We’ll do so in the Lineups page. Needless to say, none of them make goddamn sense. The highlight could be keeping Top Cat on the right side in order to keep Lance Bouma on the left. Or it could Toews centering Hayden and Hartman in a “Guess What This Line Does For A Dollar!” set up. I can’t decide.

But we all know this will last a period at most, and the Hawks will likely look like shit during it. Then Q will switch back to what it was before, and the players will have a look on their face of, “Why did we bother with that horseshit?” for about five minutes and then they’ll get to playing.

This is a cozy part of the schedule, as the Caps are no great shakes before home dates with the Sabres, Coyotes, and Panthers who all blow. That’s before the Hawks have to go to sudden juggernaut-bitch Winnipeg, so these eight points are pretty crucial before that and a six-game road trip that wraps around Christmas.

 

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Game #28 – Hawks vs. Capitals: Spotlight – The Last 600 Man?

By Sam Fels 2800 0

We’ve been over and over the treasure that Alex Ovechkin is. We’ve documented how he’s a unicorn when it comes to the amount of shots on goal he generates. How he’s probably under-appreciated even if he’s one of the top ten players of all times. We’ve pointed out how given the current scoring environment, he’s put up some of the greatest goal-scoring seasons of all-time. And yet it feels like because of his team’s inability to win more than seven playoff games at a time, which he only takes so much responsibility for, we still don’t have the esteem for what’s really going on here.

So here’s another angle: What if Ovechkin is the last 600-goal scorer we see for a while? Maybe ever?

Ovie is currently 22 short of the 600 mark, and given that he’s already piled up 20 this year in just 28 games, you wouldn’t bet against him to get it this year. Even if he were to go completely cold, and wouldn’t everyone love a place where 35 goals is considered “cold,” Ovie will get there in the first month of next season.

The only other active player anywhere close is Patrick Marleau at 518. But needing 82 goals would see Marleau having to put together probably three more 22-25 goal seasons, depending on how this one finishes, which would have him scoring 20+ goals past the age of 40. Only Teemu Selanne has managed that in recent history, so you wouldn’t bet on it.

Other active leaders like Rick Nash or Marian Gaborik… you can forget it. Sidney Crosby is 206 goals short. You could see Sid managing to average 20 goals per year for another ten years, given he’s only 30, and he probably has a few 30-goal seasons left. But if the miles catch up? Or the injuries pop up again? He’s really the only other one out there now you’d fancy.

Steven Stamkos has 332 goals right now at age-27. That leaves him 268, and projecting him for nine more 30-goal seasons when he’s 36 isn’t all that far-fetched. Or bleed out some 20-goal seasons until he’s 38 or 39, and given his Gary Roberts-inspired fitness, you could see that. You could also see him playing like three more full seasons given his injury history and not get there.

Sure, the younger players in the league are the ones you’re screaming about. Run CMD’s MVP season saw 30 goals, and he has a career 57. He’s only 21 obviously, but he’s 543 short. That’s 40-goal seasons for 13 more seasons. It’s 18 30-goal seasons. There have only been 37 40-goals seasons in the past 10 years. It’s just not the environment for it. There were just three last year.

Auston Matthews? Same spot as McDavid but a year behind. He’s more the pure scorer, so you could see him taking a serious run at it. But again, he’s looking at piling up 30-goal seasons until he’s 38 to get there. Or 40-goal seasons until he’s 33, or something in between.

Patrick Kane needs 305 goals to get there, which means he’d need to be scoring 30 a year until he’s 40. As he only has three 30-goal seasons on his resume, you’d tend to doubt it.

Maybe the real question we should be asking is will Ovechkin be the last 700-goal scorer? Almost certainly yes. If Ovie gets the 600 this year, he would only need 100 more at the spry age of 33. Surely Ovie can find 20-goal seasons until he’s 38, if he wants to play that long. Seeing as how he’s never scored less than 30, it probably won’t take him that long. But who else is coming up with that? Averaging 40 goals for over 17 years? Again, there have only been 37 40-goal seasons in the past ten seasons.

Like 500 wins in baseball, this is a mark we might never see again. Maybe finally then we’ll realize what we have in Ovie.

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