Everything Else

Since the matchup was set, I’ve had a hard time getting a hold on this series. Which probably means we’re in for a good one, which the NHL could use. It’s been a while since there was a classic Final. Hawks-Bruins is probably the last one, and even that lost some of its luster when all of Patrice Bergeron’s organs fell into his feet. Rangers-Kings was awful, Hawks-Lightning was tightly contested but the games theselves weren’t really much for the neutral (the last three games were all 2-1 or 2-0). I honestly don’t remember any of the Sharks-Penguins games from last year except for maybe Donskoi’s OT winner. Hopefully, we get a little better here.

It’s also hard to fully judge these two teams as banged up as they are. While the Penguins are basically only a Letang short of a full lineup, there are so many guys who look like they are carrying something or have missed time that you don’t know exactly what you’re getting. The Preds don’t have Johansen and Fiala, which is a real problem.

Everything Else

Of what was on offer, Penguins-Predators is by far the most palatable matchup, and will probably provide the best hockey. And it will look really odd on high definition televisions, which I’m here for. And it also probably provides the most talking points. I’ll try and get through them all, if I can remember them.

-This postseason has seen the most discussion of “styles” that I can remember, whether it was how boring the Senators were to whether or not the Penguins have somehow cracked a “counter-attacking” style against the Caps and a few other things. I suppose the one downside–there are assuredly others that I want to ignore–of a lot of hockey writers being soccer fans was making connections between a team like Leiceister City winning the Premier League and a hockey team trying to do the same thing.

The problem with this thinking is it’s a lot easier to sag back in soccer and still be a good defensive team than it is in hockey. If you’re causing all the shots to come from 25-30 yards in soccer, that’s fine and if someone crashes one in that’s more just bad luck. In hockey goals from points shots that are screened or deflected are far more common, so it’s best to just not give them up at all.

Both Ottawa and Pittsburgh are in the bottom half of playoff teams when it comes to scoring chances against per game, so both have needed strong goalie performances to get where they are. Same with high-danger chances. They’ve been ok, but hardly great. Meanwhile, the Predators have been highly effective in limiting the types of chances teams get, which is probably the big advantage in this upcoming Final.

Everything Else

There’s an added buzz to the hockey world when the Stanley Cup actually enters the building. It will be in Pittsburgh tonight, and one gets the feeling it’s almost certainly going to come up for air. You tend to feel like that when one team hasn’t had a lead all series. At this point it almost feels like we’re just putting the Sharks out of their misery.

You would think that being on the brink would finally force DeBoer to empty the tanks, tell Dillon and Polak that they’re playing eight minutes each at most and try and keep his top four d-men out there as much as possible. But if it hasn’t happened yet it probably won’t now. And basically no matter how well the Sharks play tonight, one shift or two from those will turn the tides.

Everything Else

Well I didn’t get that one right. I thought the Sharks’ PP would clock the Penguins’ high-action PK (they only got one look). I thought the Sharks would get a better handle at the pace the Penguins play. They didn’t, though Martin Jones almost made it hold up to take a split back to California. Wasn’t to be though when the Penguins ran a pretty brilliant play off a faceoff in overtime.

Only when San Jose’s top line is on the ice are they consistently getting things going, because those guys are generally skilled enough to weave around the Penguins flying at them and then can mash them along the boards until something else opens up. All the other Sharks’ lines are having problems.

Everything Else

shark vs. Ron-Cey

PUCK DROP: Just after 7pm Central

TV: NBCSN

THOSE HYPERVENTILATING: Pensblog, Pensburgh, Battle of Cali, Canafornians

Figure with only the one game we can give it the usual preview treatment.

You may recall a few years ago, when people still scoffed at the idea of puck possession and Corsi and all that and that having the puck was a good thing (hey that’s today too!), there were some out there who claimed, usually from Toronto, that they were opportunistic. That they played counter-attacking and hence would purposely give up the puck to then spring out faster when it was turned over.

Everything Else

Box Score

Event Summary

War On Ice

Natural Stat Trick

That was something of a departure.

We saw last year against the Wild that the Hawks can struggle against a team that changes its style from a previous game (or in Minny’s case, the previous period). The Hawks probably expected the Lightning to once again come out flying as they had basically done in the first three opening frames of this series. Instead, the Bolts in trying to protect their rookie goalie being dropped into a near impossible situation tweaked their system a bit. Instead of those pinches along the wall being meant to keep offensive zone time going and force openings, the Lightning basically used them as time to get their forwards back to clog the neutral zone. If chances came they took them, but they certainly weren’t going to force anything that might leave them exposed at the back. Constantly, whenever the Hawks did actually manage to break cleanly out of their zone ( I think it was twice), they saw three or four Bolts simply lined across the red line.

Everything Else

Despite seven years of evidence to the contrary, not to mention numerous recent examples, in the wake of last night’s loss to the Lightning to go down 2-1 in the Stanley Cup Final there has been a rush to pronounce the Hawks’ season and run as perennial contenders both dead. And nothing could be further from the truth.

Everything Else

Time to just go through some numbers popping out from Game 1 and beyond. You love it when we get nerdy. Nerds are in, you know it, I know it. If only I paid this much attention to math in high school (I think I got a 590 on the Math section on the SAT while rocking the verbal, and my Rain Main-like father never forgave me for it, despite the fact that he was a writer. It was a strange family).

38.2%

That was Jonathan Toews’s Corsi number for Game 1, and that’s with the score adjusted. It’s the third lowest number he has produced in the past two playoffs, as Kopitar kicked him down to a 37% in Game 6 last year in L.A. (while Kane dragged them out of the pits like little Miho got Clive Owen), and earlier last spring Mikko Koivu held him to a 25% in Game 4 against Minnesota. But that’s it, and I guess it says a lot that the Hawks went 2-1 in those games. It’s not a formula the Hawks would have any intention on repeating, though. And just how likely is it the Lightning can keep Toews down… down on the ground…

Everything Else

This is where it might get to be tough reading for everyone. It is rare that you would find yourself saying, “Boy, I’m not sure the Hawks want to get into a track meet with these guys.” Generally games against Colorado have fallen into that category. Dallas is sort of edging that way. And generally that’s about it.

But Tampa would almost certainly be on top of that list. While the Preds tried to go plaid and wear the Hawks out that way, the Lightning will try and do some of the same things Nashville did. Except they’ll try it with a consistent 40-goal scorer who once pierced 60, two Calder finalists from last year who are Conn Smythe contenders this year, and a some pretty clever centers. Yeah, little worrying.

But much like the defense, there’s an upper echelon here and then a Looney Tunes cliff-like drop. Let’s get into the nitty gritty.