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Game Time: 8:00PM CST
TV/Radio: NBC Sports Chicago+, WGN-AM 720
Alpenglow Botanicals: Mile High Hockey
For the second time in a month, the Hawks and Avalanche will be playing one another for the second time in a week. And for the second time in a month, the Hawks will be looking to avoid getting blanked in earning any kind of points in the standings whatsoever. Maybe this time it will be different.
Sometimes, all you need are a couple of individually brilliant performances. The Hawks had all the consistency and cleanliness of a Taco Bell–hosted afterparty toilet bowl, but came away with a decently dominant victory. Let’s wrap it.
– Patrick Kane gave as many fucks as he could tonight. When that creep gives a fuck, it’s breathtaking what he can do. He directly contributed on all four Hawks goals and managed to make Alex Nylander look like a smart trade not once but twice. On the first goal, Kane took a chip pass from Strome up the far boards, took his time scanning for options, and fired a Royal Road pass that Nylander just had to run into for a goal.
On Kubalik’s goal, it was Kane’s aggressive and outstanding backchecking (what the fuck?) that led to a steal from Scheifele and an easy pass to a totally uncovered Kubalik. If you needed any evidence that Kane was entirely locked in tonight, this is the best example.
And what do you know? When Gus and Kane cycle even a little bit on the power play, it opens up a ton of space. Rather than having Gus pick his ass at the point while Kane puckhandled on the near boards, the two simply switched spots, which drew defenders toward Kane at the point, giving Gus a wide-open lane for a one-timer. It was 366 days ago that the Hawks’s power play woke up last year doing exactly this kind of thing.
And for the coup de grace, Kane took a cross-ice pass from Nylander and wristed a laser by Hellebuyck, getting Adam Boqvist the secondary assist in the process.
Kane made everyone look good out there. That creep can roll.
– It took Kane’s Atlasian effort to push Robin Lehner out of the top spot for tonight. Another 37 shots on goal and just one goal allowed for the 1B goalie, including a few remarkable saves in the second. The Hawks got pantsed bad in the second frame, which is turning into a trend when they play the Jets, but Lehner navigated them through it. It’s definitely fun to watch Lehner make heroic saves, but you still have to hope that Stan is at least thinking about making or taking some calls on him, especially if he can get a for-sure prospect for him. This team is clearly in rebuild mode, and after Saad’s injury, Lehner is likely the best trade piece they have now. Something to consider.
– We’re still waiting for Adam Boqvist to really flash the flair we were all promised, but tonight was at least encouraging. He had a couple of decent break ups in his own zone and led all Hawks D-men in CF% (53+) and xGF% (70+) with Keith as his partner. This is exactly the kind of play Boqvist should be shooting for, for now. You’d still like to see him quarterbacking the power play at some point, but tonight was a step in the right direction. Credit to Jeremy Colliton for having the stones to put him on the top pairing.
– Kirby Dach was the only other Blackhawk beside Lehner to have a decent second period. He’s still in the good-idea-not-so-good-execution stage of his offensive development, but you can see the vision on display most of the time. Once he stops baby giraffeing with the puck near the net, he’s going to be a dangerous centerman.
– Alex Nylander had two points tonight. Though he sort of fell into his goal, that he was in the right spot is seriously encouraging. And his cross-ice pass on Kane’s goal is what you imagine Bowman traded for in the first place. For now, it’s a flash in the pan, but it’s at least encouraging.
– Dominik Kubalik led all Blackhawks in CF% (58+) and xGF% (82+). Though he might not be a top-tier player, he’s got potential to be another Brandon Saad, which is a good thing to be.
– Saad’s injury was to his ankle tonight, rather than the knee injury we assumed it was. It wasn’t pretty, but there might be hope that it’s not a season ender.
– It was a fun victory, but it’s still concerning to see shit like this:
This is the setup for Poolman’s goal. There’s no reason for Dylan Strome to be that low, especially with Murphy covering his man. With DeBrincat eying the point, Nylander needs to be able to read the play and at least make an effort to cover Poolman here. Again, this is Strome’s fault for being that far out of position, but if Nylander’s only going to score once every 16 games, he’s got to up his awareness on plays like these.
It wasn’t entirely pretty, but it doesn’t need to be. On to Colorado Saturday.
Beer du Jour: Miller High Life
Line of the Night: “We were short and hard.” –Dennis Gilbert describing things during an intermission interview.
vs. 
RECORDS: Wild 16-12-5 Hawks 12-15-6
PUCK DROP: 6pm
TV: NBCSN Chicago
BEYOND THE WALL: Hockey Wilderness
Well, should be quite the tasty atmosphere at the United Center this evening, no?
Tonight is all about finding out if this is bottom or not. The Hawks will be in front of what has to be a cantankerous home crowd after their worst loss of the season last night (which is saying something, given the variety of defeats already on offer). And it might not be all that full, though it probably won’t be anywhere near Bulls-levels (yet). Any sign of more incompetence is going to be met with boos and a hearty amount, you would think. Have the Hawks ever faced that from their fans? Their previous seasons have mostly been met with indifference. This will not be that.
And it’s really about how the team responds to not just that. After a crushing setback and their recent form, we’ll know if they have totally quit tonight. Or do they still have some professional pride left, which can be just called fear of embarrassment, and scrape together something to at least let everyone know they aren’t in fact dead? They may hate the coach, they may think the front office has steered them wrong, but surely they don’t want to keep getting their dicks kicked in and save some face? If they can’t manage anything beyond limp for most of the contest tonight, major changes have to be made the very next day. They won’t be, but they’ll need to be. If you’ve ever wished for Jonathan Toews – Player/Coach, you just might get it Monday.
As for the Wild, this nothing squad has managed to go 14 games with only one loss in regulation, going 9-1-4 and zooming up the standings to the fringe of the playoff spots. They’ve overcome inevitability catching up with Devan Dubnyk, and then injury, and have made do with Alex Stalock and Kaapo Kahkonen. They’ve have a revitalized and healthy Parise scoring goals. Somehow Eric Staal is still a genuine #1 center, and Jason Zucker is also pouring them in.
And once again Bruce Boudreau has employed a system that is fine with giving up attempts and shots from the outside, but gives up very few quality chances. The Wild are a middling at best Corsi team, but have the second best xGA/60 in the league. They can’t create a ton, but they don’t give up much and are more than happy to collapse to the middle of their zone and let you have it on the perimeter. What an interesting idea. When the chance comes, they will get up the ice off turnovers and mistakes and have the d-men to join in as well in Suter, Dumba, Spurgeon (when healthy) and Brodin. And even if Boudreau’s “structure” at times gets loose, his charges show up every night and skate hard because they have to.
In the end, it’s not likely to go anywhere, but he usually gets the most out of what he has. The Wild can’t ask for much more, as they try to figure out how to transition their next phase.
For the Hawks, there aren’t that many lineup changes they can make. Robin Lehner will start. Alex Nylander should be thrown into a trash pile somewhere along Damen Avenue, but it seems orders from on high will dictate that he be jammed into the lineup in the faint hope that he magically turns into something. Dylan Sikura should be back in the lineup, but he’s run afoul of both coach and front office in just two games it seems.
If Colliton were really going to go down swinging, he’d promote Boqvist with Murphy and put Dach in between Saad and Kubalik. Why? Because you’re already suffering lapses defensively and missed checks and turnovers, so how much worse can the kids be than what the vets have given him? What are we hanging onto here? If it’s time to move on from what came before, and it is, why wait around? Want to make sure you’re in dead last first?
Really curious to see how the whole organization responds to this weekend. Something tells me they won’t be able to stick their head in the sand much longer.
We’re back after the Thanksgiving break, and boy are our arms tired. There’s been some stuff happening, and Sam, Pullega, and I get elbow deep into it. No subscription required as always, links abound after the jump.
I understand that any sports media loves any player that gives them quotes that are beyond the usual cliches, even if they’re just horseshit. Call it “Trevor Bauer Syndrome.” So that’s the treatment Robin Lehner is getting right now. You should also keep in mind, which went under the radar but our friend Al Cimiglia had it. Lehner let slip his true colors when he asked the press after the second Colorado hammering, “Which goal should I have stopped?” And he’s not wrong. The defense sucks in front of him and everyone knows that. But Corey Crawford has played behind the same defense for three years (arguably four) and you’ve never heard him bus toss anyone. Tells you a lot.
The fear is of course to minimize Lehner’s previous struggles. I don’t want to undervalue what he’s gone through, but for one he’s comparing his struggles to those of actual abuse, and second he’s on the verge of becoming another Brandon Marshall. “You have to listen to me not matter how much crap I spew because I have mental health issues!” The thing is, I don’t.
Lehner isn’t completely wrong in this conversation with Mark Lazerus. He is right that we do need better education and mental health care for athletes and everyone in sports and really everywhere. And there is a fudged line about how far back we can go and I have often said that going back to what people tweeted or said as children isn’t really fair. Kids have to be allowed to make mistakes, which is why I don’t really get on Artemi Panarin’s or Josh Hader’s case too much.
But these weren’t kids we’re talking about in hockey. These were middle-aged men. These were grown adults, and never under any circumstances is hurling racial slurs or physically abusing players who aren’t really in a position to retaliate or had their reports upstairs about them ignored simply a “mistake.” It’s abuse of power, and I don’t give a flying fuck if “that’s how things were done” in the past. We know better now, and they knew better when they were doing it, and they did it anyway because they didn’t think anyone would bother to call them on it. Someone did, and now they’ll reap the consequences.
Second, Mike Babcock or Bill Peters or now possibly Marc Crawford aren’t having “their entire lives canceled.” They’re not getting to coach in the NHL and make further millions than they already have. There’s plenty of things they can do. Working in the NHL isn’t a right. It’s a privilege. And they’ve lost it. And fuck, Crawford doesn’t have to lose it. He could come out tomorrow, admit he did these things, say he was wrong, say he’s willing to take any and all steps to learn and evolve from it, and specifically apologize to those he abused. An achievement that somehow eluded Bill Peters when he tried it. Most would probably accept that.
This is the same bullshit that all conservative dipshits or whiny pissbabies (big overlapping circle on that one, though sometimes it’s just lazy ass comedians) pull out when someone gets caught being an unrepentant asshole. Where was Akim Aliu’s second chance? Where was the outcry for him? How about John Franzen’s years long anxiety thanks to Babcock? Don’t hear that much. It’s the same for the women Louis CK assaulted, and instead all we hear is how unfair it is that Louis can’t play large theaters anymore (except he is).
No one’s being thrown in jail over this and no one’s acting like he should, but that doesn’t matter to people like Lehner who with all his issues still wants the right to be a jackass, and then probably hide behind his previous issues when he does. Oh, and did you notice how quickly “rappers” escaped his lips when moving beyond hockey? Always interesting when that happens, isn’t it?
Lehner goes on to mention domestic abuse and sexual assaults and he’s absolutely right on that one, but that isn’t so much a second chance as it is a complete ignoring of those things that keep those players in the league. These days there is some sort of suspension, and most would argue it doesn’t go far enough. But at least there’s a hint of consequence. Barely a whisper, but it’s something.
And these are the consequences for these coaches. They don’t get to work right now. Perhaps with the proper contrition they will in the future. They are hardly “canceled.”
Here’s a pretty succinct summation:
It’s actually a pretty fucking simple principle to understand. For example, if your kid stole something, your punishment would be very different if they confessed and paid back what they stole than if they said “You ppl are so sensitive. It’s like you can’t even steal anymore.”
— Todd™ (@Totally_Offside) December 4, 2019
I don’t see Lehner taking up Colin Kaepernick’s cause (big shock there) who didn’t actually do anything wrong and yet lost his job forever. That would seem to be canceled to me, but yet I never hear anyone pissing themselves over “cancel culture” taking up his cause. Wonder why that could be?
Robin Lehner just likes to hear himself talk, and thinks you have to too because of his previous struggles. Again, I don’t. Nor should you.
vs 
RECORDS: Blues 17-5-6 Hawks 10-11-5
PUCK DROP: 7:30
TV: NBCSN Chicago
GOOD GOD DON’T GO THERE: St. Louis Gametime
Like any adversarial relationship, or really any relationship that goes for a long time, there are different phases to it. The Hawks and Blues have had theirs. They were scraping for bottom of the barrel rewards in the 80s together. They were playoff rivals in the early 90s, each with hopes of breaking through the post-Oilers scene (never did). Both were hapless background pieces to the Wings, either in the mid- or late 90s. Both have been unequipped batting practice for the other at times, for instance the Pronger-era Blues were far ahead of the Hawks and obviously what came before here not so long ago. Both have been mud people at the same time.
We thought we’d permanently left them behind this decade. That’s the arrogance that comes from multiple championships. But you can never leave something like this behind. It’s always there, even if you have to squint, and it’s always a reminder of what you truly are. It feels like getting hit with a large fish in the face when you realize that, but here we are. Last spring was a reminder that some things are always like this, no matter how it might look.
And now it’s reversed. The Blues are in the sunshine, seemingly clicking everywhere, seemingly have figured out when everyone had assumed they never could. That it would always be that way. And the Hawks are the ones with their shoes tied together, valuing all the wrong things with an inability to take any step forward. Oh sure, maybe it’s only been two seasons like this, instead of the seven or eight we enjoyed laughing at the unwashed down I-55. But it’s gone now, isn’t it? Oh yes, yes it is.
So the Blues will show up for the first time this season tonight, with their unfathomable champions pedigree and their first place standing now and the added arrogance not just of having done all that, but of having done it when no one ever thought they could. These aren’t the Blues you remember, and it’s likely they will never be again. We’ve lost something. They’ve gained something, and that is truly world-shattering. They’re 15 points ahead of the Hawks.
The Hawks are 15 points behind, five points out of a playoff spot, and one point ahead of the basement of the entire damn conference. Has anything moved forward? Does it feel like it will anytime soon? Aren’t the questions all the same as they were before? The lack of answers sure are. This is supposed to be them. It was them. And we figured it would be them forever. Because it felt like it would be, when it was and we weren’t. We had all the answers before there were questions. And then in a flash it reversed, and now we’re the laughingstock in the relationship. “Look at how far behind they are,” they crow, and rightly. The gap is bordering on a gorge. Cruel world.
Anyway, on the ground, the Blues are in first but in some ways they’re a lot like the Hawks. They’re not a great possession team. They get great goaltending and they’re getting some fine finishing from more sources than the local outfit. They’re still pretty good defensively, in that they hold down attempts, shots, chances among the better teams in the league. They don’t create much, but with the way Jordan Binnington is playing they don’t have to. The more you suppress shots and attempts the more games come down to a moment or two. And when your goalie is better most nights, you’ll win most nights. When you allow chances and attempts to flow like and Elvin-conjured river, you make it more likely that results will match what the teams are. That’s how you get the Hawks, no matter how good the goalies are.
Of course, the Blues are here without their main sniper in Vladimir Tarasenko, who might not play again in the regular season. They’re also without Alex Steen, which doesn’t mean much these days, and Oskar Sundqvist, which is somewhere in the middle. In their absence, Ryan O’Reilly, David Perron, and Brayden Schenn have fucked off just like they did last spring that landed us in this mess. Alex OrangeJello seems intent on having a true free agent year, and Jayden Schwartz is actually healthy. Imagine what happens when Justin Faulk actually gets comfortable. Fuck this life.
Anyway, to the Hawks, who will be without Duncan Keith, Dylan Strome, and now Robin Lehner as well as Andrew Shaw tonight. Lehner has the flu, which is a strange code for telling his teammates they suck on the bench and being given a day or two to calm down, even though he’s right. Without Keith, and he really shouldn’t matter this much, the Hawks roll out an AHL defense behind Connor Murphy. And we already said Connor Murphy shouldn’t matter this much either. Oh, did we mention they’ll have to do the same against the best line in hockey Thursday? On the road? ONE GOAL.
Because of all of this, the Hawks will skate one player short due to cap constraints, with the recalling of Kevin Lankinen putting them up against it. Real tight ship, here. A cap team that’s one point above the West basement. Everything’s fine. They have a process. They know what they’re doing. Everything is on course.
It won’t take more than four minutes for Pat and Eddie to comment on the Blues “grit” and the forecheck the Hawks apparently want to emulate without realizing what they’re actually talking about. The Blues can get in your shirt because they’re actually really quick. It’s not just about dressing psychopaths, which used to be their M.O. They upgraded the speed, and with Pietrangelo, Faulk, Colton Burpo, they’re mobile enough on the blue line to not worry if their forwards occasionally get beat. They defense can just step up behind it. The Hawks d-men can’t. So you get what the Avs did to them, which is streak to an odd-man whenever they felt like it. And failing that, they could just wait for that moment when four Hawks were trying to find the Big Dipper in their own zone and tralalala their way down the slot. The Blues are no more stupid than the Avs are.
The season is almost certainly already toast, but it’s for sure going to be if the Hawks don’t ace December. They can rant and rave all they want about where the Blues were on New Year’s Day last year, but that team was built to contend and needed to fire a coach who was clearly a moron and everyone knew it to get where they were supposed to be (say there’s an idea). This might be where the Hawks are supposed to be. Starting the month off with the two Finalists isn’t exactly cherry. The rest of the slate isn’t either.
The difference between the two might not any clearer after tonight, or at the end of the month. You’ll just have to wait for the day when the relationship shifts again. It might be a long way off.
You know, it’s very rare that I am without things to say. I have been rendered truly speechless only one time in my adult life, and it was when I got called out for being an asshole at a White Sox game (funny story, I’ll tell you about it sometime). The point is, however, that I don’t often struggle for words. But tonight, it’s happening to me. After watching the Blackhawks get completely outplayed in every sense of the word for back-to-back games on back-to-back nights, I’m left grasping for ways to explain it, even though I can see some ways that things need to change to keep this from happening again. So here goes…
–For about the first two minutes of the game, it felt like it wouldn’t go down this way. It seemed like it was going to be different than last night. Jonathan Toews got called for a bullshit penalty just seconds into the game, and when Brandon Saad turned it into a short-handed goal, things seemed to be looking up. Not only that, the Hawks were keeping pace with the Avs, who, as noted previously, are really fucking fast. This lasted all of about 2-3 minutes, and then the Avs just took over. On Nazem Kadri‘s second goal, Seabrook got straight-up burned by him flying by while there was no backchecking forward to be found. That was when it started to get ugly.
–You want ugly? It’s Alex DeBrincat trying to fight someone. Yes, that’s right—Alex fucking DeBrincat got into a fight in the first period, and if that’s your game plan to turn shit around in a period where you’re struggling, then there is no help for you. I’m hoping Top Cat was just being hot-headed and stupid, since we already proved that Andrew Shaw‘s dumbass fight last night was not a turning point or anything other than useless GRITHEARTFART. DeBrincat better never pull this nonsense again. The whole thing smacked of desperation.
–Robin Lehner getting pulled also didn’t solve anything, and honestly this shit wasn’t his fault, just like last night’s score wasn’t Corey Crawford‘s fault. The defensive breakdowns were insane. Yes, it was going to be tough with Keith out and Fetch Koekkoek in, but that doesn’t explain all of it. Erik Gustafsson was particularly awful again tonight, for example, when he completely failed to break up a pass to a streaking Joonas Donskoi for his first goal. Lehner was (rightly) frustrated throughout, and seemed to scream right at Toews as he left the game, which was hilarious because Toews was on the ice for a lot of goals, but also not what you want to see. When anyone looks back on this game, let it be known this wasn’t Lehner’s doing. And Crawford gave up a couple anyway, so clearly the Hawks goaltenders are not the X factor in why the Avs are kicking the shit out of us.
–But hey, Patrick Kane extended his scoring streak!
–In all seriousness though, that goal by Kane came on a 5-on-3, which was the second one the Hawks had tonight. So with two of those you’d think they’d have a little better result. Overall their power play was back to its stationary ways, with Kane standing still at the dot and firing on Philip Grubauer (who was good tonight but not lights out). It was good to see Kirby Dach get time on the second PP unit because now I’m paranoid he’s going to get benched and made a scapegoat for Colliton’s stupidity, but there isn’t much else to be pleased about with the power play tonight.
–Dominik Kubalik had a nice goal. How long till he’s a healthy scratch again to, ya know, send him some message?
OK, OK, enough whining. This weekend exposed the underlying problems that we know—and have known—about the Hawks this entire season. It was also just a scant few days ago that they beat arguably the hottest team in the league and in quite convincing fashion, only to turn around and be made to look downright foolish by a fast, skilled team. There are lessons here to be learned, such as not hitting the blender so hard and throwing nonsensical lines out there because you don’t know what else to do, maybe stop worrying about a damn contract year and bring up your fast, puck-moving defenseman, stop bothering with Andrew Shaw on the power play because he’s useless…all these things and more can be addressed to improve the situation.
It’s blatantly clear that the Hawks need to make changes after this weekend—now we just have to see if they do it. Onward and upward…
Line of the Night: Sorry folks, was in the mute lounge tonight while streaming Phish’s night 2 in Providence
Beer de jour: Good Behavior IPA by Odell Brewing
Many of you dear readers have far better things to do with your Saturday night than watch the Blackhawks play the Stars in Dallas, and for that I sincerely envy you. I truly did not expect much from this game between these two teams, but this one turned out to be pretty intense despite the lack of scoring. I still have plenty to say about it and a few thoughts coming out of it. Dive into my mind:
THE BULLETS
– About 10 minutes into the game, there was still no score, but it felt like the Stars should’ve been up by 4. The night never really changed from that kinda feel, either, and in the end Dallas probably should’ve won something like 6-1. It never really should’ve gotten to a shooutout, let alone overtime. The Stars had notable whiffs on wide open nets from from Jamie Benn and Corey Perry, along with a few other missed opportunities – they registered TEN High Danger Chances in the first period but came away with just one goal. Those coupled with another strong game in the crease from Robin Lehner really kept the Hawks in a game they didn’t really deserve to be in.
– Kind of riffing off that first bullet as well, while the Hawks dominated the attempts in the second period and controlled most of the play, all that work still only resulted in six total scoring chances and just two of them being High Danger. All those shot attempts basically amount to empty calories if you’re not generating opportunities from them.
– I’d like to give a special nod to Coach Mayor Buttigieg for giving Erik Gustafsson and Brent Seabrook 16+ minutes of 5v5 ice time in spite of the Stars eating them up for breakfast lunch, and dinner. Those two finished with CF%’s of 39.29 and 38.46 respectively, which is impressively bad. Gustafsson also had an embarrassingly bad turnover that led to the open net chance I mentioned earlier that Perry whiffed on.
We are to the point with Gustafsson that each game it is getting more and more predictable that he is going to have a costly turnover, and he is finding new ways to turn the puck over each time. I really don’t want to become a broken meatball record with this dude, but he has to be gone. Soon.
– Let’s stick with Mayor Pete Colliton, though, because if the performance and playstyle of the team in the first month of the season wasn’t enough to get him fired outright, there were moments tonight that might be the final straw. The Hawks took bench minors for Too Many Men twice tonight, once in the third period and once in overtime. Those are just backbreakingly stupid penalties to take, especially in those moments, and the Hawks were lucky that *those* mistakes weren’t the ones that finally cost them. And maybe you can chalk the OT one up to a twitchy whistle from the refs on a change, but that still comes back to coaching and knowing when to send your fucking players onto the ice.
For all the talk of how fun the Hawks were in their winning steak when they went back to new-old system so that the skill players could open up the ice a bit more, we haven’t seen those efforts come to fruition in the last three games. The Hawks haven’t been playing terrible, but they’re still getting boat raced at various moments in games, which is just not something you can ignore. And with Toews all but calling Colliton a fucking dumbass for playing seven D against Tampa a few days ago, it’s still clear that the locker room is not a fan of this guy. It has to end.
– Hawks are off until Tuesday when they get a rematch with these Stars at home. Until then.
vs. 
RECORDS: Hawks 9-9-4 Stars 13-8-2
PUCK DROP(S): Tonight and Tuesday at 7pm
TV: NBCSN Chicago Saturday, NBCSN Tuesday
TEXAS FLOOD: Defending Big D
It’s a bit strange that almost two months into the season, the Hawks have only played three divisional games. They haven’t seen St. Louis, or Colorado, or Minnesota, or Dallas yet. That will change over the Thanksgiving holiday, as the next five are within the Central and four of them will be amongst home-and-homes. It kicks off tonight with the first saunter of the campaign down to Texas, where the Hawks will start two against the hottest team in the league.
It’s been a miniature version of last season for the Stars, who won one of their first nine and now have ripped off 12 of their last 14. But whereas last year Jim Montgomery switched gears midseason to go all Trotz/Lemaire to shoot the Victory Green up the standings and into the playoffs, this year he’s loosened the reins a bit to give his team a little more freedom. But basically what both seasons boiled down to is either Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn are scoring or they’re not.
Montgomery even pulled the same switch as the owner last year, calling out his two stars in the press. He walked that back immediately, because he knows they’re the reason this team will be good or not, especially with John Klingberg out injured (again). Not that it didn’t work, as Seguin has piled up eight points in six games since and Benn seven. These two were playing well before of course, just weren’t getting the bounces.
It also helps that THE BISHOP has started flashing Vezina form again, which is the real strength of the team. Whatever the Stars do he is the backbone, and a .942 in November will backstop just about any system or teammates Montgomery would choose. The Hawks will duck Bishop tonight by the looks of it, but will probably see him on Tuesday in the return. Not that Anton Khudobin is some easy task either, as he also has a .942 in four November starts.
The Stars are a bit beat up, as Klingberg is a big miss and Roope Hintz being out erodes some of their depth as well (both returned on Saturday and both scored last night, so it’s pretty much the full strength Stars now). Miro Heiskanen has made up for a lot of what Klingberg would do, and has even inspired Jamie Oleksiak into some form of competence, which is a true upset.
That doesn’t mean the Stars are without depth. Joe Pavelski has gotten used to being in green and not teal of late, and is dovetailing with Alex Radulov on the second line. Even shit-demon Corey Perry has chipped in on the bottom six, and you know what Andrew Cogliano (NBA Jam voice: COGLIANO!) can do to the Hawks (and Fifth Feather’s little cartoon hearts).
Perhaps the main feature of the Stars forwards is they can adapt to a variety of styles given their IQ and speed. Montgomery certainly hasn’t shied from trying just about everything.
To the Hawks, who shouldn’t see too many changes from Thursday aside from putting the seven d-men plan into the freezer for good. As we’ve said, in a vacuum it makes sense and would make more with Adam Boqvist around. But this isn’t a vacuum, the players clearly hate it, and we likely won’t see it again for a while unless Colliton has a point to prove tonight. Certainly Dominik Kubalik has no business being scratched other than he’s the lowest hanging fruit to do so being a rookie. Enough of that shit.
The Stars are almost already out of touch for the Hawks, six points ahead though having played a game more. Still, the Hawks aren’t going to climb the standings if they can’t get wins within the division, and if they fall on their face in the next five they could be season-boned as it is. The Stars aren’t quite as stout as they insisted on being last year, but their goalies are so the Hawks will need a big performance from Lehner tonight you would think. And probably Crawford again on Tuesday. Montgomery might sense that without a puck-moving d-man, the best route for the Stars is to back up for these two and just trench the neutral zone and see what the Hawks can do about it.
The most familiar rivals for Thanksgiving. Isn’t it that way for everyone?
I like to do this at the watermarks of the season. If you’re new, and some of you shockingly are, I take an analytic look where I can on where the major hardware should go, but sometimes won’t, at this point in the season. For the most part, it sticks to where you think it would go anyway, but sometimes it diverges. Anyway, to it…
Hart Trophy – Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl Split It
This would certainly drive the hockey world mad, and you’ll have more than enough saying that Draisaitl’s stats and success are merely based on playing with McDavid. And I could probably accept that, and if they just wanted to hand it to McDavid I wouldn’t complain. McDavid is almost certainly going to wind up like Mike Trout, where he wins three or four of these and then when he retires we realize he probably should have won eight or nine and there was no good reason he didn’t.
Either way, the Oilers suck to high heaven and yet are comfortably in first in the Pacific because of these two. They are both leading the NHL in scoring at 44 and 43 points. No one else on their team has more than 17. Along with their linemate James Neal, they have 43 goals. The rest of the team has 33. If you were to go totally rudimentary on this, the rest of the team is getting slightly beyond one goal per game. These two are accounting for over two.
Norris Trophy – John Carlson
Believe me, this seemed way too obvious for me but it’s hard to make a case for anyone else. And he’s already going to win it, given the buzz his point total at this point has generated. When you’re a defenseman and you’re on pace for 124 points, people tend to take notice.
So I looked for a metric way to get beyond Carlson, but he’s ahead of the team-rate in Coris and expected goals. The argument that will be brought out by someone is that he doesn’t play great defense. But the Caps are scoring 50% more goals when he’s on the ice than they give up, and the whole point of the fucking sport is to score more goals than the other team. Carlson is helping the Caps do that more than anyone.
You could make a small case for Dougie Hamilton, as his possession numbers are better. But beyond that, his argument would be the same one for Carlson. Kris Letang has actually been magnificent for the strangely dominant-at-evens Penguins, but as always he’s been ouchy and isn’t scoring enough.
If there were a Rod Langway Award–for best defensive defenseman–and he had been healthy, I could make a serious case for Connor Murphy here. No, seriously, I can. Murph has the second best relative Corsi-against rate in the league, and the second-best expected goals-against rate. While the Hawks remain The War Rig at the end of Fury Road defensively overall, they’re actually somewhat stout when Murphy is on the ice. No d-man has improved his team’s defense more than Murphy. It won’t get him any hardware, and it’ll probably only get him traded in the offseason as the Hawks continue to cower in fear of Seabrook and need to find room for Boqvist, Mitchell, et al, but everyone should know just how good Murphy has been.
Vezina – Robin Lehner
Fuck you, let’s go with the hometown vote. While Kuemper and Greiss have better SV%, they’re playing behind better defensive teams. So is every other goalie on the planet, essentially. Those two also have bigger differences when it comes to expected save percentages and expected goals and such, but Lehner has had to have great games while still giving up three or four to keep it from being 10. We know what Trotz systems do for goalies. We probably know what Colliton systems do for then too, and it ain’t the same. Lehner has had to perform miracles to keep the Hawks on the periphery of they playoff chase. And I’ll be goddamned if I’m handing anything to Darcy Goddamn Kuemper.
Calder – Cale Makar
This one isn’t even close. Makar is blowing away the rookie scoring race from the blue line, and he has a +7 relative xG%. While the Avs have gone without Mikko Rantanen and Gabriel ThreeYaksAndADog for a good portion of the season, they’re still hanging around the top of the conference with games in hand on everyone because of Makar and MacKinnon. He’s been everything as advertised, and is probably the best hope for a non-truly evil team to come out of the West this year.
Selke – J.T. Miller
Most voters would light themselves on fire before they give this award to a winger, which is why Marian Hossa doesn’t have the three he should, but if you dig deep on the metrics it’s pretty clear. Miller sits atop the rankings when it comes to attempts and expected goals against relative to his team, and in both cases it’s by some margin. Oh, and because morons care about this, he’s been taking Elias Pettersson‘s draws for the most part and is clipping in at a 59% win rate. So there.
