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Burn The Pages Of Unwritten Memoirs – Draft Preview: Ty Smith

By Sam Fels 1496 0

Essentially, what we wrote here about Quinton Hughes at Michigan we could copy and paste for Smith out of the WHL. A tad undersized, but a dynamic offensive force from the blue line who exploded in his second year in the Western Hockey League.

After a 32-point season in his debut with Spokane, Smith went nuclear last year with 73 points in 69 games. That made him the second leading scorer as a d-man in the league, behind David Quenneville and ahead of one Henri Jokiharju. I suppose if I’m advocating having Jokiharju go straight to the NHL, then you could make the same case for Smith.

Smith doesn’t have the international experience that Jokiharju does, and hey, it’s a bitch being Canadian that way. Smith is also going to have to overcome the stigma of his size. He’s listed at 5-10 and 176, and that’s probably being generous. While the NHL is skewing smaller and faster, there are times when d-men have to be sturdy and strong and Smith is going to have to prove he can do so in those moments.

What Smith has that you can’t teach is being a plus-plus skater and instincts. Smith’s vision is already at a higher level than he plays according to scouting reports, and projects as a #1 power play QB in the not too distant future. He already has a great sense of when we can skate himself out of trouble, which is most times given his grace, and when he has to make a pass. He’s also not afraid to step up into the rush, or above his blue line to break up play quickly, which is a skill the Hawks prioritize heavily.

Unlike some others we’ve previewed, Smith is likely to be around when the Hawks pick. He’s been projected as low as #17 in some mock drafts and as high as #7 in others. The Hawks could conceivably drop down a few spots and get him and gobble up another pick if one team was desperate to move up. Again, the Hawks are basically short everywhere in the pipeline with only Jokiharju and Mitchell as d-men they’re counting on to make an impact at the NHL-level. Smith looks like he could be another.

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What are we supposed to do with this?

By Adam Hess 2205 0

One of the stranger themes that is constantly present with the Hawks year in and year out is the Trade Guy. It seems like each offseason – or at least every other year – there has been at least one player whose combination of play, contract, and being surpassed by other players just proving to be better, leads to him being an extremely obvious trade candidate both from the sensibility standpoint and the fan outrage standpoint.

First it was Nick Leddy, then it was Patrick Sharp, followed by Bryan Bickell, and now it’s Artem Anisimov. Wide Dick proved to be the prize of the first Brandon Saad trade, and he really has been perfectly fine for the Hawks in the three years he’s been here. He’s netted at 20 goals in each of his three seasons in Chicago, a feat he had only achieved once prior to landing here. A good chunk of those are probably a direct result of playing with Patrick Kane for three years (and Artemi Panarin for two of those), but it’s still a decent selling point if your trying to build value on the trade market, which we are.

The analytically minded are not going to be as bullish on Anismov, and for good reason – he has only broken 50% shot share at 5v5 once in three years in Chicago, but he’s also never dipped below 49% so it’s not like he’s getting skulled out there. It’s basically a back and forth when he’s out there, which isn’t exactly ideal but is still adequate enough to not be maddening. Again folks, we’re going full on used car sales pitch here.

Anisimov does have some obvious shortcomings that are definitely less than ideal for a center, like the fact that is really slow and also terrible on the dot. He’s a perfectly fine player and one that might truly be able to contribute to a good team if used properly, or eat top six minutes for a middling or bad team and do a pretty good job. Basically, if Stan Bowman is worth his salt (and I think he is), he should be able to build a market for Anisimov. The question, though, is how good that market would be.

Back at the trade deadline, the Hawks were rumored to be considering trading him, but the best offer they got was a third round pick from Columbus. But the trade deadline doesn’t always bring out the full market because it seems like teams are always hesitant to players that aren’t the “biggest” names on the market at that time. The NHL Draft and free agency season has become the big event for major moves as teams try to restructure themselves for the new seasons by plugging holes or adding new elements, so Anismov’s market is probably going to have at least a few takers. But the market isn’t your only obstacle.

Anisimov has a full NMC that runs until July 1, so that throws a major wrench in any plans that Stan may have had to try and move him at Friday’s draft. And this is where it gets murky, because if you’re Anisimov you might be smarter to waive that NMC this week and give yourself a bit more control over where you play next year rather than handing in a 10-team list on June 30 only to have a 1-in-1o shot at your preferred location come July. Not that Stan would ask Wide Dick where he wants to go and then only try to make it work there, but if Stan gets a deal put together on Friday and calls up Anisimov’s agent, maybe it makes more sense to just say “yes” then and know you’re wanted where you’re headed rather than go into the new league year with only an inkling of an idea of where you’ll be come October.

I think the Hawks might be able to sell a team like Carolina on taking Anisimov as part of a package for Justin Faulk, and I genuinely think Carolina would be a nice landing spot for Wide Dick while also striking me as a nice place to play. Is that more attractive than trying to sort through which third of this league is desirable enough to play in to include them on an “okay” list?

Given that the Hawks are pretty much set at their top two center spots at this point with Toews and Schmaltz, while also being rumored to have interest in John Tavares, it’s starting to feel more like “when” Anisimov gets traded rather than “if” he gets traded. It doesn’t feel particularly likely that it happens this week, but stranger things have happened, and it’s all going to come down to what level of control Wide Dick wants on his future. It’s at least something to keep an eye on come Friday.

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Burn The Pages Of Unwritten Memoirs – Draft Preview: Oliver Wahlstrom

By Sam Fels 1483 0

After two of the dream picks yesterday, we move to the likelier draftees for the Hawks. And even Oliver Wahlstrom might be a stretch. But some mock drafts have him getting to #8, and some even have him falling farther than that.

There are some who will tell you that Wahlstrom is the best offensive talent, or potential to be, in this draft. He might be the best American in the draft, ahead of Tkachuk and Hughes as well. There’s certainly a lot to work with here.

Wahlstrom was significantly the youngest player invited to last summer’s US Junior camp, which is what makes everyone take notice. Some will tell you he already has a professional-level shot, especially one-timer, which Wahlstrom himself has already boasted about. Whenever Wahlstrom gets to an NHL team he’ll already have a weapon that can contribute even if every other part of his game has to be brought along.  You could plug him on the left side of your power play and probably get 8-10 power play goals from jump street.

Wahlstrom isn’t just a sniper, though that’s the main feature of his game. He’s got good enough hands and vision that some have suggested he can play center, but wing appears to be where he will star. He’s also not small at 6-1, but is more than an average skater. Other than Svechnikov, there might not a better offensive force in the draft.

What’s even more intriguing about Wahlstrom is what he might spend next year doing. He was slated to go to Harvard, but considering that no one ever leaves Harvard early he’s now slated to attend Boston College. Wahlstrom holds dual-citizenship in Sweden, and it might make the most sense for him to play in Sweden in a professional league for a year. But given BC’s prowess and rep for building talents to be ready for the NHL, that’s where you’d likely find him.

And Wahlstrom is only going to need a season either in Europe or college. He’s already got NHL-level skills in one area, which means any team would get production from the first year of an ELC without wasting it by having him do anything the AHL. For the Hawks, they are short on top six talent in their pipeline, now that DeBrincat and Schmaltz have become part of the NHL roster and important ones. Sikura and Ejdsell are basically what they have bubbling underneath the surface. So adding someone of Wahlstrom’s quality would immediately make him the best forward prospect they have.

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Burn The Pages Of Unwritten Memoirs – Draft Preview: Quinton Hughes

By Sam Fels 1508 0

We’ll continue our look at possible Hawks picks with another son of a former player, and one who probably isn’t going to make it to the Hawks at #8 but would be a boon if he did. And that’s Quinton Hughes from Michigan.

Whatever team takes him had better realize that what Hughes does is kind of the future of the position. Not that he’s going to revolutionize the game or anything, but as more and more teams replicate what has made the Penguins successful the past three years, the Knights successful this one, and a handful of others, no longer are teams going to be content with having just one or two mobile d-men and filling out the rest of the blue line with atom-smashers. That’s going to get you beat in this league. The first team that basically throws out five or six puck-movers is probably the next one to have sustained success. Your d-men have to get themselves out of trouble, they have to be good with the puck to dodge aggressive forecheckers, and they have to then get up in the play. As the game speeds up it’s going to be harder and harder to pass your way through trouble. And to do that teams might have to forgive undersized d-men.

Hughes fits the bill. He’s only 5-10, so if teams are going to count on him to clear the crease or wrestle with guys continuously down low, that’s not going to fly. What he is is extremely graceful already for his age, and racking up 29 points in 34 games for the Wolverines in his first year there is nothing to sneeze at. He’s a gifted passer as well, so he can spring breaks from his own end when his feet won’t get him there. He’s basically going to a be a high-end Jared Spurgeon, and if you follow analytics at all you know that Spurgeon is actually one of the more effective d-men in the game and moving the play the right way.

Some teams are going to be scared off by his size, and I fear that the Hawks are one of them. And they can use all the help on the blue line they can get, even if Hughes is a year or two away. What are the sure things for three years from now? Keith will not be? Jokiharju? Ian Mitchell? Gustafsson and Forsling are definite questions still. The pipeline doesn’t have much more, and Hughes would certainly add to that.

Yes, Hughes might have a rough adjustment period figuring out angles and plays to compensate for his size. He’ll probably need to bulk up a bit to at least be a solid frame. But hey, Duncan Keith in reality is no more than 5-10 or 5-11 and figured it out, and you can be hard to play against in the corners with quick and smart hands, which Hughes already has.

While there are some real moronic teams ahead of the Hawks, it’s hard to see the Red Wings at six skipping on him, given his connections to the state through going to Michigan and having lived there now for a couple years. But hey, a boy can dream.

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Burn The Pages Of Unwritten Memoirs – Draft Preview: The Dreaded Laramie

By Sam Fels 1757 0

While it wouldn’t be our first choice, the Hawks are certainly making all the noise they can that they’re going to keep the #8 pick. And hey, they just might and Stan Bowman’s drafting record is not bad, and he hasn’t ever had a pick this high to play with. The highest pick Bowman has had since 2011 was #18, twice, and he took Mark McNeill (whoops!) and Teuvo Teravainen the next year (I hurt myself today…to see if I still feel…). Stan has only had two other first round picks, as some have been dispatched for deadline trades and the like, and those were Nick Schmaltz (good!) and Henri Jokiharju last year (probably good?).

So let’s start looking at some names the Hawks might take with that pick, if they do indeed keep it. There’s no player there that’s going to help this team next season, at least it’s very unlikely. And we’ll kick it off with Keith Tkachuk’s latest garbage son to enter the draft, Brady Tkachuk.

2017-2018 with Boston University: 40 games, 8 goals, 23 assists, 31 points, 61 PIM

I don’t even know why we’d list other players this week, because if the Hawks keep the pick, and Tkachuk is there, they’re taking him. You know it, I know it, they know it. It’s so obvious it’s like the current humidity just sitting on your head. The Hawks have kind of been obsesses with the Tkachuk family for a while. Keith was the preferred return for Roenick once upon a time, after the Hawks half-heartedly tried to just sign him while Bill Wirtz was asleep. While Stan Bowman has seemingly tried to change the organization’s focus to speed and skill, this is still a front office that values “GRITHEARTSANDPAPERFAAAAAAARRRRT” and you know if “Tkachuk” is the last name, there’s plenty of that.

At first, Tkachuk’s numbers at BU don’t jump out. But we went straight to the man on the ground, one Ryan Lambert of Puck Daddy, who watches more Boston area college hockey than anyone who has any dreams of happiness in life would. And he sent this along, which are Tkachuk’s peripherals of the BU games Ryan attended, something like 15-18 of their 40.

Pretty dominant stuff. Tkachuk did play with other high draft picks, as one tends to do on Comm Ave in Boston, in Shane Bowers and Patrick Harper. Later, he was on a line with Jordan Greenway, who finished the year in the Olympics and then the Minnesota Wild. But according to Lambert, all of those players did worse without Tkachuk.

The eight goals only are a concern, but Tkachuk shot 6% all season and it’s unlikely that’s where he is as a player. Also, given his size a lot of his shots should come from in close.

Where Tkachuk has looked particularly tasty is in the past two World Juniors, and we know the Hawks love them some Yanks. He racked up 16 points in 14 games total, and drove the Canadians especially nuts this past tournament in the outdoor game.

Tkachuk isn’t just yap and size. He has exceptional hands and while he’s not a burner, he’s shiftier in traffic than his size would indicate. He’s a gifted playmaker as well, so he might be an oversized DeBrincat, though without the same marksmanship.

All of it signals that Tkachuk has a very good chance of being gone by the time the Hawks are on the clock, and even if I’m skeptical of what they like and would accentuate in Tkachuk’s game he would be a borderline-steal at #8. Tkachuk could probably contribute to an NHL team now, but the general thought is he’s going to play one more year at BU. He probably does need to get a little faster at least to be a real weapon at the top level, and that will be the focus for him next season.

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Fare Thee Well, Chicken Hawk And Other Drafty Day Musings

By 1518

It wasn’t hard to be immediately smitten by Andrew Shaw. Within his first couple shifts as a Blackhawk, he’d already scored and gotten into a fight (guess which one Q noticed more?). You watched him skate around that first game in Philadelphia and thought, “This kid is nuts!” Hockey is probably the one sport where watching a player makes you say that, and that’s a good thing (though Willson Contreras might be carrying this tradition into baseball, and a young Charles Tillman did it for the Bears SKY POINT). In his second playoff game he ran over Mike Smith, fulfilling the fantasy of most Hawks fans (and I assume players as well). Sure, it didn’t help the Hawks much but that didn’t mean we didn’t glean a perverse joy from it.

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Your Draft Day Primer

By 1388

We recognize that some of you may have not been around all that long, and this may be the first time you’ve watched the NHL Draft tonight. Or you have before but need a little help making sense of it all. Well, having taken in a fair few of these now (and the resulting depression that I’m actually watching the NHL Draft), let me prepare you for what you’re in for tonight.

-First off, NBCSN just picks up the TSN feed, and the Canadian broadcast will act like this is the most important date on the calendar for the country. Probably because it is.

-The opening segment will have a close-up of the obvious first pick, this year it’s Auston Mathews. But they’ll also try and drum up some drama on whether it will be Mathews at all, so they’ll also have a close-up of Patrik Laine. Both of them will look extremely awkward, because they’re teenagers and that’s what teenagers do, and their suits probably don’t fit. Also, no one will ask Mathews why spells both his first and last name wrong.

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NHL Team Drafting and Development: 2005-2014

By 2196 0

 

Once a player is drafted by an NHL team, the future is full of hope for a career in the NHL. Unfortunately, that hope does not lead to reality for all of the players. There are many things that factor into whether a player ever appears in an NHL game. Some of those things are completely beyond his control, such as when a log jam of talent in the AHL system builds up behind a well rounded NHL lineup.  Of course, if the player has enough talent, he will get himself noticed enough to draw interest from other teams. Here, we will look at how teams have done turning draft picks into NHL players since the 2005 Entry Draft. This article is a follow up on a post regarding Draft Pick Value that you can find here.

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NHL Draft Pick Value Since 2005

By 2387 0

Back in 2011, Michael E. Schuckers published a study called “What’s An NHL Draft Pick Worth? A Value Pick Chart for the National Hockey League” that details a way in which to attach a numeric value or worth for each pick in the NHL Entry Draft. Mr. Schuckers used statistical models to assign the values. The paper details how the model essentially bases the values on the number of NHL games each draft pick can be forecasted to play during his career. The values assigned do not forecast the quality of the player of course so there are differences in what a team will actually get but the number of games is helpful in general terms.

The picks near the top of the draft have the highest values, while the picks near the bottom have the lowest. We all know that large numbers of drafted players never actually play a game in the NHL. So the decrease in value is logical and makes practical sense. The stated purpose of the paper was to help NHL decision makers figure out how to package picks for trades and other transactions.

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Boys For Sale – Draft Preview: The Forwards

By 1508 0

Just as we did last night, we’ll give you a few names that should, or could, be around when the Hawks pick at #27. Though today Stan Bowman said he’s not averse to losing that pick for something else, so this all might be moot anyway.

Not that the Hawks tend to draft for need, they generally take the best player available, but the system is short on centers. Right now it’s only Teuvo and Danault, so I’m assuming all things being equal they’ll take a center. That said, they’ll probably just take the best player that’s on the board when it gets to them.

Let’s get to it, then: