Hockey

Flyers Spotlight: Captain Stairwell Can Afford To Take The Elevator

By Sam Fels 1305 0

Note: Normally we’ll do all Hawks pregame posts on gameday. But with the afternoon start tomorrow, let’s get started a touch early. 

You don’t hear too many laments about the Hawks being unable to sign Kevin Hayes way back in the day. At the time it seemed a mistake, though not a huge one, especially at a time when the Hawks were struggling to come up with impact forwards through the system, especially centers to support Jonathan Toews. You’ll hear almost no laments now that he’s getting paid like a #1 center he’s never come close to proving to be. But you can always count on the Flyers to Flyer.

The only time Hayes has cracked 50 points in a season came last year, which conveniently came right before he hit unrestricted free agency. Funny how that always seems to work out, no? Other than that, Hayes has consistently been around 45 points, which is just barely #2 center production and these days it’s really having to crimp to be called that. Maybe the Flyers hope that Scott Laughton can one day move Hayes down the depth chart. But that would make handing him over $7M a year even more baffling. Flyers.

And until last season, Hayes wasn’t loved by the metrics either. He hadn’t been above the team-rate in Corsi or expected-goals percentage in three seasons, and was sometimes viciously underwater. All of it feeds into the idea that you can watch a game with Hayes’s team and never notice him, and then when you look up at his 45 points you rack your brain to see if you can remember any of them. Trust us, you can’t.

Still, Hayes looked pretty good in an admittedly small sample size of 13 games with the Jets last season, the first time in at least a while, or maybe ever, that he’d gotten to play with supreme talent. And maybe that’s the hope for the Flyers here, except their supreme talent would seem to be spoken for. That’s because Sean Couturier centers Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek, and it’s been a long time since James van Riemsdyk counted as supreme talent. Hayes is going to have to make JVR and Travis Konecny look like that. For most of his career, it’s been the other way around.

Which makes the long-term planning of the Flyers pretty damn curious. But it was ever thus. At the moment they’re slotted to play Giroux $8M for another two years, Voracek close to that for another four, Hayes, and JVR $7M for another three seasons. Konecny is on a reasonable deal of $5M for a good long while, but Couturier might be in line for a huge raise in two more seasons.

Essentially, the Flyers have to get going now while their young players like Joel Farabee, Carter Hart, Travis Sanheim, and one or two others are still very cheap. And yet they don’t look any closer to the playoffs than they were last year, which was still a $40 cab ride. This is probably why you’ve heard Shane Gostisbehere trade rumors, because they have to cut costs somewhere.

But hey, you can’t blame Hayes for taking the money. Now he can comfortably rack up his 47 points and not worry about the future. Good gig if you can get it.

 

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Game #79 – Jets vs. Hawks Q&A: Gametime Art

By Sam Fels 973 0

Gametime Art has been our friend for too long for his sake, and a Jets observer for an even unhealthier longer time. Follow him @GametimeArt.

While the Jets sit atop the Central, at the time of writing, all is not well in Manitoba. What has Jets fans so angsty?

They had such a strong season last year that I think many expected them to be even better or at the very least as good and it’s been actually worse and it’s pretty easy to spot the issues this team has. The team has struggled all season on defense. Most nights they are out-shot, the offense has been inconsistent, and up until a few weeks ago Connor Hellebuyck was a very average goalie with a save percentage hovering around .907 … If this season happened in 2015, Jets fans would overlook all of that and be happy anyway. Now in 2019? Not so much. We expected another 50 win, 100+ point year and instead got what we got now which is still a good team, but one not playing up to the level they should be at.

Patrik Laine, 50 points?
Seems strange right? Back in November when he went all super-nova goal scoring sniper on us we thought he’d have 50 goals by February. Part of it is Laine himself has struggled at times with his play and the whole “body language” thing of being overly frustrated has been well noted, but there are also nights that it feels like Paul Maurice is expecting him to carry a line and be a play-maker more than a finisher which doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. There’s even the odd conspiracy theory that suggests the coaching staff may have submarined his season with questionable lineup decisions and not giving him chances to succeed, just so his RFA deal this summer won’t be as high as it sure was looking like it would be back in November. That’s how odd and crazy this season has been. In a strange way I get this feeling a season like this may end up making him a better, more complete overall player which is kind of what Maurice has wanted anyway. He has demonstrated a knack for slick passing lately, so who knows.
How has Kevin Hayes, aka Captain Stairwell, fit in?
He’s fit in ok and has been better than Bryan Little has been which is a relief since this is now the second season in a row the Jets have spent assets to pick up an actual decent second line center since Little isn’t really working out in that role. I’d argue he’s looked as good as Paul Stastny did when he joined the Jets last season which bodes well for the playoffs, but the difference here may be that Jets fans don’t want to get too attached since there probably will be very little chance the team can keep him beyond this summer.
Whatever the problems may be, this is a team that’s Cup-or-bust. So what’s it gonna be?
Unless this team pulls off something remarkable (like the Caps last season, so ya know, it’s possible) it’s going to be bust and I fear it may be in fact a one round and done type situation this season. That said, for as disappointing as it will be to miss out on a Cup, I don’t think the window is closing already. The Jets are still one of the youngest teams in the league, the core is still there beyond this season and there are still kids like Sami Niku and Kristian Vesalainen on the way.

 

Game #79 Preview Suite

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Game #49 – Hawks vs. Rangers Douchebag Du Jour: Captain Stairwell

By Sam Fels 1151 0

The NHL deadline can get pretty stupid, and somehow it always seems to involve the Rangers at its stupidest. Remember last year when Rick Nash was going to be the main piece for any team looking to get over the hump? Turned out Nash was the same hump he’d always been, and he tripped up the Bruins pretty hard.

So we move to this year, and the rebuilding Rangers have boys for sale, and most of the chatter seems to stem around Captain Stairwell, Kevin Hayes (if you don’t know the origin of that name, here you go). Somehow, Hayes has been stealing $5M a year from the Rangers for a few years now, but this is the last time he’ll get to do that. So he’s a natural move at the deadline for a team looking for…

…well, what exactly? Picture what Kevin Hayes is. You can’t, can you? Nope. He’s the build-a-Ranger that they’ve all been for the past decade, a faceless player in a faceless jersey plying their trade in an increasingly faceless arena for reasons no one can ascertain. It’s the Rangers, they’ve been making up the numbers for years. It says he’s been consistently putting up 40 points a season, but we doubt any Rangers fan remembers any single one of them.

He’s big, but has never really played to it. He’s mobile, but not in a way you’d notice. But hey, if you’re not on a top line and you stand around long enough with enough time both at evens and on the power play, you can probably run into 40 points. And some team is going to give up a higher draft pick than you’d think for the pleasure of watching Hayes’s confused gape with a confused gape of their own wondering why it wasn’t more than this. He’s a Chia Pet. Once you get it you can’t help but wonder, “What was the point?”

We thought the Hawks erred in not signing Hayes out of college, but we can’t honestly see where it would have made the slightest difference. He’s a warm body. Glorified oxygen tank. Oh sure, there’s a nice analytic angle to his season now, where for the first time he’s significantly above the team-rate. Also happens to be his free agent year. No connection there, right? You know the last time he was above the team-rate metrically? Coming out of his entry-level deal.

He’s going to sign for way too much money in Florida or something next year, and then they’ll wonder why he and they suck. You can set your watch to this stuff.

 

Game #49 Preview Suite

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Game #39 – Hawks vs. Rangers: Q&A With Beth Boyle Machlan

By Sam Fels 1484 0

Beth is our Rangers correspondent, and she’s just about thawed out from the Winter Classic. But dying of frostbite is still better than watching the Mets there. Follow her @bethmachlan.

The Rangers are kind of weird. In the past few weeks they’ve managed to beat the Kings and Bruins while also losing to the Senators and Red Wings. They seem to go to OT/SO a lot. Are they just a middling team and this is what it looks like or is it something more?
Here’s the thing about the Rangers. They can beat anyone; they can also lose to anyone. And this isn’t just the unpredictability of hockey. It’s something about the team’s core psyche, if such a thing exists. They often come out for sequential periods looking like completely different teams. I would love to know what goes on in that room, I really would. But even the team that went to the SCF was like this. I call it “Going to the Bad Place.” As for the going to OT/SO … often, it’s that they’re not generating enough shots, and they’re relying on goaltending, not defensive strategy, to stop shots on them. Watch them; they often seem to wait for the perfect chance instead of just bashing the puck at the net, and I’d argue that you have to do both to win hockey games.
It seems like Rangers fans have been bitching about the use of Pavel Buchnevich for a while. But he’s spent most of the season with Kreider and Zibanejad, and he’s third on the team in scoring. What’s the problem here?
The Buchnevich problem is a Vigneault problem. He’s not a 4th line winger, and he seems to pay a higher price for mistakes (demotion, significantly reduced TOI) than, say, Jimmy Vesey. He plays beautifully on the KZB line, but unfortunately that’s kaput now without Kreider. And AV won’t let him get comfortable or develop chemistry anywhere else. It’s irritating, because when he’s confident and in the right place, he is so much fun to watch.
Meanwhile, Michael Grabner, who plays on the bottom six most of the time, is on pace for another 25+ goal season. How does this work?
I said Grabner wasn’t going to cool off, and he didn’t. Who knows why. And this is with him also MISSING some of the most perfect setups I’ve ever seen. That said, yesterday was his first goal in 2-3 games I think, so maybe the run is ending? But no question he ends with 25+.
The Rangers only have one player on course for even 60 points. Do they need to find a way to get a primetime scorer like…oh we don’t know, Max Pacioretty?
I honestly don’t think it’s that they need a goal scorer. I think it’s a system issue. First of all, and I think I said this before … Rick Nash is the unluckiest man in hockey. If his shot can be stopped by a post or a stick knob or a dirty look or a passing pigeon, it will happen. I think the guys they have need to stop with the fancy setups and put more pucks on net. Kevin Hayes is a beast with possession but where are the goals? Rookie Vinni Lettieri scored on a one-timer against Detroit and I swear it was the first one-timer I’ve seen from this team in I don’t know how long. SHOOT THE PUCK. Frankly, I’m more worried about the effect of losing Kreider’s perfect screen.

 

 

 

 

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Sit Back, Relax, And Strap It Down – ’17-’18 Blackhawks Player Previews – John Hayden

By 1896

In the infancy of this Blackhawks era, one of the litmus tests I came across for whether you were a “real fan” was to know who Éric Dazé was. With his hulking hockey body, high expectations, and myriad injuries, Dazé inhabited the intersection of “good enough to know” and “not good enough for bandwagoners to know,” serving as a marker between the bona fides of bandwagon fans and fans “who had always been fans,” which is an eternal pissing contest that’s about as dumb as having Jordin Tootoo on your roster. Now, I’m hearing more and more rumblings about local boy John Hayden, with his hulking hockey body and high expectations, and I wonder, “Who is John Hayden, and will he be another Dazé measuring stick 20 years from now?”

2016–17 Stats

12 GP – 1 G, 3 A, 4 P

52.7 CF%, 61.9 oZS%, 38.1 dZS%

ATOI: 11:41

A Look Back: The Blackhawks signed Hayden to an entry-level contract last year, which our fearless leader Fels pegged as a move caused by being once bitten, twice shy over stairwell-shitter and professional thumb impersonator Kevin Hayes dumping the Hawks for the Rangers in 2014. When he came up in March last year, there were plaudits for his size and worries over his speed, but he managed to look OK over 12 games: a little bit better than “a guy” but certainly not a Dazé.

The most noticeable thing about Hayden after his size (6’3”, 223) was his much-improved skating. He even found himself on a line with Toews every so often, which is where he scored his first and only NHL goal. While his 4 points over 12 games is a far cry from the 34 in 33 he put up at Yale before his quick call up, the ECAC (which is the conference Yale plays in) isn’t typically a hotbed for hockey prospects.

There might be some promise in his CF%, which was 1.4% better than the team rate last year, but he only played 12 games and spent most of that time in the offensive zone. And you have to wonder whether Hayden is projected to be a “start in the offensive zone” kind of guy.

A Look Ahead: Given the likes of Saad, Schmaltz, Sharp, Wiener Anxiety, and DeBrincat, who figure to slot in and out of the top 2 lines, it’s less likely you’ll see Hayden up there. Though with DeBrincat getting into a fight at a fucking prospect tournament to show just how low his nuts swing, it’s possible that Q expects DeBrincat to SHOW MORE, which could open up a spot for Professor Hayden, who’s smart enough to see what a terrible fucking idea that would be.

For now, Johnny “The Brain” Hayden (sky point Bobby) figures to fight for a spot in the lower half of the lineup, but the only guys I’d take him over are Wingels and Tootoo, two of the suckiest bunch of sucks who ever sucked. Maybe if he impresses, he lines up on the right side on the 4th line, but then what? Q historically uses his 4th line as a defensive zone plug, and nowhere throughout his career has Hayden shown a talent or propensity for that. Hayden has made a name for himself by being the fat kid on the Kenny Hubbs team who threw 70 mph because he hit puberty at 9. That advantage goes away in the NHL.

Barring some sort of epiphany or major injury, Hayden probably slates to start the year in Rockford. If he can exceed what he did at Yale there, maybe he finds a spot on the bottom half, but again, it’s tough to see whom he replaces, since we don’t have any evidence that he can or will play the left side. But he is just 22, and he did show dedication to improving his skating at Yale, so it’s possible that he can mold his game to play as a right-handed left winger, replacing a guy like Lance Bouma if he ends up making me eat crow for believing in him. (Is this what it’s like to be a disappointed dad?)

So who is John Hayden? Hayden is a big, smart boy, but he’s no Dazé. He probably won’t be more than an answer to a trivia question in a few years (Who was the 20th Yale Bulldog to crack an NHL roster?). He’s the Atlas Shrugged of hockey players: not nearly as great as his proponents say, an overhyped tome of theoretical muck whose pedigree rests mostly on his size and standing out among the mediocre.

At least he’s got a sort of Hasselhoff handsomeness to him.

Stats retrieved from hockey-reference.com

Previous Player Previews

Corey Crawford

Anton Forsberg

Duncan Keith

Connor Murphy

Michal Kempný

Brent Seabrook

Gustav Forsling

The 6th D-Man

Artem Anisimov 

Lance Bouma

Laurent Dauphin

Alex DeBrincat

Ryan Hartman

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High On The Hog: First Round Fortunes

By 1122

The goal of the Rockford IceHogs as the Blackhawks AHL affiliate is pretty clear cut. Winning is secondary to pushing talent through the I-90 pipeline. Success means that Stan Bowman can stock his roster with quality players (or offer that talent around the league for annual cup runs, take your pick).

Obviously, Chicago’s run at the top of the NHL has prevented Bowman from selecting an franchise-type skater in the first-round the last several seasons. There are plenty of difference-makers on the current Hawks roster that honed their games in the Forest City. Corey Crawford. Niklas Hjalmarsson. Andrew Shaw. Bryan Bickell (oops).

By the way, Rockford apparently beat Milwaukee 5-2 Tuesday and then dropped a pair in Charlotte over the weekend. Didn’t catch a second of one game; I was behind a sound board making sure an audience could hear a tale as old as time this week.

I promise that you’ll get the usual breakdowns starting with next week’s post. Until then, I thought I’d shine a beam of light on some of the fortunes of Chicago’s recent picks toiling in Rockford and…well…other places.

Everything Else

Don’t Let The Doorknob Hit You

By 927 0

In what was an inevitable turn of events, Kevin Hayes allowed the statute of limitations or whatever on signing his entry level deal with the Blackhawks expire, and as a result is now a free agent and free to sign with any team he pleases. And that’s ok.

Everything Else

Runs Like Hayes

By 1064 0

Not that it’s Earth-shattering news, but friend of the program (and probably soon to be re-assigned for doing so) Scott Powers of ESPN Chicago is reporting that Kevin Hayes won’t sign with the Hawks before the August 15th deadline and will hit the open market. Most everyone has known this would be the case since about April when Hayes’s college career at Boston College ended. The Hawks have tried everything they can offer-wise, shrinking the term on his entry-level so he can get to restricted free agency quicker. Some have speculated it’s an ill-feeling after the trade of his brother Jimmy. The more likely one speculated is that Hayes doesn’t see himself cracking the lineup in Chicago immediately, or at least not the top six where he might have to play.